John Goodenough: 1922-2023
All of us in the lithium ion battery and electric vehicle industry have stood on the shoulders of giants.
Those giants: John Goodenough, Stan Whittingham, Akira Yoshino.
The passing of John Goodenough marks a moment in time for our industry to be…
We’ve seen this before, we will see it again. Goldman Sachs: you can’t just add up all the
#lithium
mine level potential & make an oversupply call
The speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore
It’s why the world doesn’t rely investment banks for research any more
🇺🇸 Big update to Defense Production Act:
US now expands definition of “domestic source” of battery raw materials to include UK 🇬🇧 , Australia 🇦🇺 and Canada 🇨🇦
You do get a feeling a new industrial trade bloc is forming for
#EV
- lithium ion battery supply chain
@benchmarkmin
Where are lithium ion batteries made?
79% in China 🇨🇳
8% Asia (ex China)
7% Europe
5% USA
The 10 year trajectory has started to shift towards more
#EV
battery capacity in Us and Europe, but not by much
China still on track to dominate battery manufacturing (~70%) in 2031
S&P 500 ESG Index removes Tesla and has added 6 oil and gas (incl transport) related companies. Highlighted with a 😇 emoji… no wonder Elon Musk is pissed. 👏
@facts_tesla
The US DOE releases its critical mineral assessment which I broadly agree with.
Longer term is the big issue for the elements that are crucial to making the energy transition work.
For me: lithium stores energy and copper moves it.
Every other element is working around this…
The beginnings of sodium ion batteries
“Sodium ion’s 2030 pipeline capacity is now at 152 gigawatt-hours, and layered metal oxides will be used as the cathode for 76% of this -
@benchmarkmin
”
The cost of lithium ion batteries is plateauing.
The easier economies have been met thru Giga scale, now the limiting factor on supply chain is mining & refining.
Up to 80% BOM cost is minerals, metals, chemicals.
@benchmarkmin
To dominate EVs and batteries, you need mining
What western economies are only beginning to recognise is that in the electric vehicle and battery supply chain they are the developing nation and China is the developed nation.
#EV
@benchmarkmin
Why lithium isn’t going into oversupply anytime soon -
@benchmarkmin
note
Some good basics to bear in mind when looking at
#lithium
, despite Goldman Sachs & now Credit Suisse notes.
Free to read:
The Energy Transition will need a lot of mining… especially from new mines
On today’s average mine size, we are going to need over 300 of them
This will change, but the fact that need a lot of new mined material won’t
@benchmarkmin
#lithium
#nickel
#copper
#cobalt
#graphite
When automakers become miners…
A huge moment for the US as GM invests $650m in Lithium Americas to accelerate Thacker Pass.
As the battery and EV space begins to scale, financing needs to do so with it.
This is a much needed big step up for our industry.
Within the space of 12 hours you had the top of US Government 🇺🇸 and European Union 🇪🇺 talking about the need to build lithium ion batteries and secure supply of raw materials, especially lithium
How things can change so quickly in our industry ...
@benchmarkmin
Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China
@benchmarkmin
Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025
Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.
Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Global battery production is set to surpass one terawatt-hour for the first time in 2023 - a 500% increase since 2018.
@benchmarkmin
data
The lithium ion battery has shifted from start up to scale up.
#EV
It takes 3 years to building a Gigafactory but 7 years to build a lithium mine.
The great raw material disconnect will continue until the ultimate end users invest in infrastructure to make the product they will need.
Tens of billions of dollars needed short term.
#EV
Lithium ion battery prices are going up for the first time. Some said it would never happen.
#EV
But rising lithium prices are the cause.
172% increase in Benchmark Lithium Price Index since this time in 2021 says it all
Automakers to take the hit
More TBA
@benchmarkmin
If EVs are lithium ion batteries then EVs are minerals, metals & chemicals
Gigafactories are getting bigger and bigger and consume multiple mines worth of raw material each year
Once the auto industry becomes fully in tune with this bedrock principle, change will happen quick
There are lots of different electric vehicles with lots of different lithium ion battery types.
Each battery type impacts critical mineral demand differently.
@benchmarkmin
infographic outlined this trend nicely from
@Tesla
Semi to Ford F-150 to Tata Motors Tiago:
The great
#EV
raw materials disconnect:
“
#COP26
declaration would require over 7m tonnes of lithium annually, which is 17 times more than 2021..”
“.. 5m tonnes nickel sulphate, 19 times more than in 2021.”
Free read:
Biden Administration to commit $12.5bn dollars to building new lithium ion battery capacity in the USA.
Haven’t seen the report yet (out today) so eagerly awaiting the details.
We have spent so much time, money and effort building our Forecasts division that everything published has to go thru many hurdles & be a professional, considered opinion.
Banks (high profile) should be required to do a similar amount of work before publishing.
Benchmark Lithium prices continue to come off from all time highs in December, down 4% in
@Benchmarkmin
’s latest assessment.
Consumers are running down inventory as we enter the new year.
#EV
#Battery
Get this first! Subscribe here:
🚨 China and
#graphite
This sums up the main issue the rest of the world faces with graphite and anode material.
There is a lot of anode capacity planned but hardly any for the rest of the world.
2023: China dominates with 93%
2035: China dominates with 90%
The issue…
<thread> Tesla &
#Lithium
- a decade in the making
A lithium refinery has been in Tesla & Elon Musk’s
@elonmusk
thinking for ~10 yrs now & in (a serious way) for the best part of 3 yrs
The logic is sound
2020: 70-80% of lithium ion battery costs are raw materials
2010: 20-30%
USA demand for critical battery raw materials as we stand at 725GWh:
Lithium 580,000 t/yr
Nickel 540,000 t/yr
Cobalt 90,000 t/y
Manganese 95k t/yr
Graphite 870k t/yr
And this will need to 3x!
Onward to
#GigaAPAC
Conference
Tesla will use prismatic battery cells for the first time in Model 3 short range for Chinese consumers.
#EV
This will be made using CATL LFP cells tailor made for Model 3.
It’s the first time Tesla have expanded from cylindrical cells (18650 / 2170)
@benchmarkmin
The downstream of the
#electricvehicles
#EV
supply chain is growing at twice the pace of the upstream (mining and refining).
Something drastic needs to happen to close this gap if one of the key pillars of the
#EnergyTransition
is to exist at scale
@benchmarkmin
excellent exclusive from
@benchmarkmin
@hjesanderson
Elon Musk and Tesla lay down 2TWh lithium ion battery capacity challenge to Panasonic. That’s 4X the industry’s size today
Assuming, 50% NCA 50% NCM - that’s a lot of raw materials
#EV
Full story:
USA seeks to further isolate China from this global battery arms race with new regulation.
🔋 US sets 25% cap of Chinese ownership for the battery supply chain components.
Critical minerals, cathodes, anodes and other battery components will not be allowed to access IRA…
Goldman Sachs Nov 2022: Lithium’s delayed decline
A change in tune and analysis since the June misjudgement, which moves lithium in their models from surplus into 84,000 tonne deficit.
How much battery raw material will Tesla’s expanded 140GWh Gigafactory in Nevada consume each year?
A really good
@benchmarkmin
sketch of just how critical mineral hungry these super sized EV battery plants are.
There are 13 gigafactories in the Benchmark pipeline over 100GWh.
A big moment for
#graphite
When critical mineral price curves move in tandem with a market of interest, institutional money takes note.
With EV battery demand to make up over 50% of the flake graphite market, everything changes.
It happened to cobalt in 2015, lithium in 2018…
The incredible
#Messi
. The incredible
#Mbappe
. Was this the best game of all time?
I need to digest.
Pride for me to witness the second person ever to score a hatrick in a
#WorldCupFinal
- the first? England’s incredible Jeff Hurst 1966 🏴
Lithium & Afghanistan. <thread>
Back to the future. We were discussing this in 2010.
The reality now is the same then. The potential is interesting but super long term if ever.
Lithium isn’t rare and Afghanistan has occurrences of lithium. But so does my back garden.
…
The USA - China EV supply chain gap won’t be closed in a decade.
US dominance in the battery supply chain now also means engaging with Chinese companies to build domestic infrastructure
The global battery arms race has now become a supply chain race:
Sodium ion batteries.
@benchmarkmin
latest takeaways:
🟠 sodium ion gigafactory capacity ramp up is underway in China: 10.4GWh
🟠 2024 will see a step increase in sodium ion capacity in China as it soars towards the 100GWh mark
🟠 This new capacity drive for new battery tech…
Elon Musk (
@elonmusk
) either doesn’t understand the chemistry of lithium ion battery or is deliberately misleading.
> Lithium is presently 5% of a batteries cost and rising.
> Tesla has always used cobalt in their NCA chemistry
…
We at the start of a new commodity super cycle:
“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,”
“This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything”
~Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs
#lithium
#nickel
#cobalt
#graphite
@benchmarkmin
#Lithium
needs $42bn of investment to meet 2030 targets
@benchmarkmin
In reality that target has already been missed considering timelines to build new lithium mines
Accounting for misfires on new lithium supply this $42bn will be closer to $70bn
What we face with the global
#EV
battery arms race:
@benchmarkmin
’s high level directional analysis >>>> close to 400 new
#lithium
#cobalt
#nickel
#graphite
mines will need to be built.
This is why it’s a generational movement, not just this decade
👀
Lithium analysis from big banks again is wrong and misplaced. Q1 is always soft in China
Cutting capacity? We heard that before earlier in the year and it never happened
While we no one can predict the future, those in the industry can make sensible judgements on the present
👀 “Lithium and rare earths will soon be more important than oil and gas…”
OPINION: Europe is on a mission to secure critical minerals. Here’s three things it should do | Benchmark Source
Don't usually comment on Forecasts but the Morgan Stanley lithium one is ridiculous. When you understand even the basics of lithium, cathode and Battery plants, and Auto majors plans you realise the Morgan Stanley scenario has a 1% chance of happening.
New: Benchmark forecasts that lithium will need $51bn of investment between now and 2030 to bridge the gap between EV and battery demand.
We call this gap the great raw material disconnect.
Full story:
We are now at 68 lithium ion battery megafactories in the pipeline. Totalling 1.45TWh / 1,450GWh. This could make 22m EVs a year by 2028.
@benchmarkmin
data. Slide from my BAML , New York talk on Tuesday
Lithium sits at ~20% of the cost of a lithium ion battery BOM. New
@benchmarkmin
data.
Some will remember the days when
#lithium
was under 5% of the cost.
EV makers will need to get a grip of supply chain to drive this below 10% long term.
Priorities: Supply 1st, price 2nd
For well over 15 years now, I’ve wanted to go storm chasing. 🌪
I finally did it thanks to these next generation legends of the industry >
@StormChaseAZ
@MesoMax919
@Tornado_Steejo
Chasing and racing
@ReedTimmerAccu
for the Kimball, NE Tornado was something special. Reed is…
Lithium prices remain sky high.
Elon Musk refines his lithium take, but is feeling squeeze on battery costs.
“I’d like to once again urge entrepreneurs to enter the lithium refining business. The mining is relatively easy, the refining is much harder”
Solid state batteries were supposed to be in EVs around now.
People overestimated the ease of their commercialisation and underestimated how good lithium ion (NCA / NCM / LFP) batteries could get.
Nothing is static. Everything is up for grabs.
‘Classic’ lithium ion is still…
CHART: Lithium Price Upturn: ⬆️ 41%
@benchmarkmin
The lithium prices jump in China puts us back at Nov 2019 prices. It also puts an end to the consistently eroding price trend of the past 3.5 yrs
This time lithium is meeting big EV demand head on + a commodity super-cycle...
The lithium ion battery industry is expanding by 50% this year to over 600GWh, powered by
#electricvehicles
#EV
The energy storage age has arrived.
@benchmarkmin
The only way Automakers will be able to secure new long term
#lithium
is to own the assets.
We are now at the stage where off-takes, loans won’t be enough for most.
@benchmarkmin
🇨🇳 China moves to restrict graphite exports.
Graphite is the one critical mineral in which China has the sway of industrial power both mining, refining (production of spherical graphite) and anode making.
A rare and complete supply chain dominance for the suite of battery…
Tesla will announce 6 or 7 incremental battery improvements both on manufacturing / materials (cost) and energy density-anodes and cathodes (kWH).
Don’t be surprise if this takes Tesla’s cell cost to the $85-90/kWh range. From $97-120 today.
First lithium ion batteries. Now critical minerals.
@POTUS
will today reveal US progress on securing critical mineral supply chains, 1.30pm DC
Critical minerals especially ones that feed future industries like
#EV
are firmly at the top of the geopolitical agenda
@benchmarkmin
Ganfeng Lithium to increase its lithium prices by 100,000 RMB / t Oct 10 to Nov 9 due to power issues and “rising costs” in China.
This will take lithium prices above $40,000/tonne mark short term, but huge jump of 60%
Learn more From
@benchmarkmin
>
<thread> Lithium prices.
In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
Crazy to think
@benchmarkmin
is now tracking 379 (!) gigafactories with a potential capacity of 9.1TWh by 2035.
Easy to see how the conversation has completely shifted to critical minerals & the great raw material disconnect between mine & EV battery plant.…
We’ve been predicting it for years. But is it really about to start?
The beginning of a new battery powered commodity super cycle
Worth read from
@aheadoftheherd_
:
Electric vehicles will be made where the batteries are made.
The UK 🇬🇧 has been too slow in attracting tier one lithium ion battery makers.
🇨🇳 BMW moves electric mini production to China >
Raw materials aside (for now)…
🌎 The world will need to invest an extra $200bn in lithium ion battery cells to meet EV demand by 2030.
🇺🇸 USA will need + $70bn
🇪🇺 Europe will need +$76bn
@benchmarkmin
Exclusive:
2 mnths on from Goldman Sachs debacle, Benchmark lithium prices have been steady to rising.
Volatile? Most certainly. But sky high and volatile is the trend.
If anything competition for future lithium supply has intensified as OEMs step up their strategies…
Passed! Huge for USA and lithium ion battery to
#EV
supply chain in North America.
“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”
#Lithium
and our company is front page news in the Wall Street Journal
@WSJ
So proud to be part of this lithium industry since 2006. We have all worked so hard. The future is now.
TY to Michael Wilson of Prince Intl Corp for capturing this. 👊
#TeamBenchmark
@benchmarkmin
The cost of lithium ion batteries is plateauing.
The easier economies have been met thru Giga scale, now the limiting factor on supply chain is mining & refining.
Up to 80% BOM cost is minerals, metals, chemicals.
@benchmarkmin
To dominate EVs and batteries, you need mining
It’s clear electric vehicles are going through a period of rationalisation after 2.5 years of rocket fuel growth.
Headlines of North American OEMs ‘cutting back’ EV and battery plans I see more as the realisation that:
a) this takes time to build and scale gigafactories
b)…
If electric vehicles are lithium ion batteries then electric vehicles are mining.
This wasn’t the case in 2015 when the bill of materials was circa 40% of total cell cost.
In 2022, this is 70-80%.
@benchmarkmin
BP citing our lithium prices in their Statitsical Review of Energy 2018 is the first time big oil has publicly acknowledged lithium. We are in a new era for commodities
Lithium prices cont to nudge up on the latest Benchmark price assessment cycle.
@benchmarkmin
Lithium Carbonate up 317% in last 12 months.
Lithium Hydroxide up 193% in last 12 months.
The biggest supply squeeze is yet to come. Onward to 2022 we go…
#lithium
prices by
@benchmarkmin
Lithium carbonate in China cont to rise 10% to an av of $60,600/t, a high of $63,900/t
Sustained high prices push up industry av over time.
We are comfortably 17 months into this new lithium bull market. No sign of it running out of steam
<thread> Lithium prices.
In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
#Graphite
- biggest input into a lithium ion battery by some way
Below: first 2 links in the graphite to
#EV
supply chain. Flake > Uncoated Spherical
China is still the biggest producer of graphite and dominates over 90% of anode output.
TBD Perth 🇦🇺
It’s official: we are now at 200
#EV
battery megafactories / gigafactories in the pipeline -
@benchmarkmin
But how much lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, cobalt, manganese will this need? a lot
👀
The four horseman of the ICE Apocalypse:
Lithium: leading charge
Graphite: Unappreciated dark horse
Cobalt: Bad rep but critical to trio
Nickel: a leader but trying to eliminate cobalt
Coal+Oil: dying a death
ICE House Built: knocked down
@TyDinwoodie
@benchmarkmin
“In 2022, lithium ion battery demand is growing at its fastest ever rate and is on course for 50% year-on-year growth. “
#electricvehicles
#EV
📚 The energy storage revolution has arrived… but who will have dominion over the megatrend of our times?
The EV lithium ion battery industry has already grown an order of magnitude since 2010.
Starting now, it has to do it all over again.
And it’s clear there is nowhere near enough capacity in pipeline. (50m EVs by 2030)
The global battery arms race will continue
@benchmarkmin
Lithium ion battery surge begins to hit the anode supply chain, all the way up to flake graphite mining.
A critical cog in the energy storage revolution, graphite anodes are just growing in stature and market size.
The world is going to have a shortage Tier 1 lithium ion batteries. Tier 2 and 3 are not yet good enough for Tier 1 Western Auto producers to scale.
#EV
@benchmarkmin
Request more info here:
World on track for 5,137GWh of lithium ion battery capacity by 2031, about 80m EVs worth
Everything is being electrified at same time and off grid energy storage emerging; expect this total to rise
We will need 10,000 GWh of battery capacity to underpin the Energy Transition
@stats_feed
Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla might actually have to get into the mining & refining directly at scale, unless costs improve.
There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.
BYD selling Tesla the “blade” battery.
Those that own the battery plants will rule.
Those that own the battery plants’ raw materials will rule the world
@benchmarkmin