Samuel Charap @scharap Twitter profile

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

We’ve arrived at a stage when avoiding escalation to a Russia-NATO conflict is going to take luck or effort. Existing guardrails are eroding by the day if not the hour.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

so... the implications of an isolated, angry Putin presiding over a grinding, existential conventional war and an economy devastated by sanctions are really terrifying. The chances of his accepting "defeat" are far lower than the chances he escalates dramatically.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

It seems to me that the only well planned part of this entire play has been the military piece. No one beyond the military and the services seems to have even been in the loop. I wouldn’t be surprised if the post-invasion plan is about as good as the US one in Iraq was.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Important that some Western leaders are trying to talk Putin out of this madness, even if the chances of success are vanishingly low.

Emmanuel Macron

@EmmanuelMacron

2 years

I spoke to President Putin this morning. He refuses to stop his attacks on Ukraine at this point. It is vital to maintain dialogue to avoid human tragedy. I will continue my efforts and contacts. We must avoid the worst.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The longer this goes on, the more brutal it is likely to get. And we haven't seen the most destructive Russian capabilities employed yet: indirect fires, unguided bombs, etc.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

This Putin address to the Security Council is absolutely terrifying. Not showing any hint of compromise. Glorifying the "bravery" of Russian forces and doubling down on the "Nazi" rhetoric re: Ukraine. Extremely emotional. Blood curdling.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Main takeaway from that barnburner of a speech is that Russia now has given itself a pretext to respond to "attacks" on DNR and LNR with no need to conceal its direct military involvement. thread 1/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Seems like cruise missiles are flying. This is going to be very big. Nothing limited about Putin's speech or this military operation. This is a big war.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Let's be clear. What is happening now is a large-scale military operation against Ukraine. Forget about the Donbas. It's a sideshow.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Just saw a @WSJ headline that the Dow is up 600 points because Russia "agreed" to talks with the Ukrainian leadership, confirming once again that markets simply cannot accept the reality of how bad this is going to get. It's verging on delusional.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

One gets the sense that folks in this town smell blood in the proverbial water regarding the stability of the (odious) Putin regime. Let's file that under "careful what you wish for". Thread. 1/7

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

for the record, Putin just effectively declared war on Ukraine.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

About the clearest warning sign that could exist

EXCLUSIVE Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to U.S. concern, officials say

Russia's military buildup near Ukraine has expanded to include supplies of blood along with other medical materials that would allow it to treat casualties, in yet another key indicator of Moscow's...

www.reuters.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin "I have declared a special military operation"

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Having watched the Putin-Scholz presser in its entirety I see no cause for optimism. NATO issue still front and center. Putin demanding an answer immediately. And calling what’s happening in the Donbas “genocide.” Does not bode well.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

It's almost impossible to get one's head around the extent to which Russia is a different country today than it was a week ago.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

There has been a significant though subtle shift in Russian war aims in the last week. Before, it was nothing less than regime change. Now it’s clear they would accept a negotiated settlement. Granted, their current demands are outlandish. And they might still try to oust Ze. 1/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Glad to see that the FBI has mastered snark in Russian. Using the Putin dressing down of SVR head Naryshkin in an ad calling for CI tips. “Speak directly, we are ready to listen.”

FBI Washington Field

@FBIWFO

2 years

Информация, предоставляемая ФБР населением, является наиболее эффективным средством борьбы с угрозами. Если вы располагаете информацией, которая может помочь ФБР, просим вас обратиться к нам.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

10 months

The Putin rant on Poland with set propaganda piece from Naryshkin does not bode well...It's one thing for Soloviev to say things like that, but what's the point of making a big show of this at a televised Security Council meeting unless something is in the works...

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Wonder what it's going to take for the skeptics to believe that Russia is preparing for a major military operation. There is absolutely no need to be doing what Moscow is doing unless they're creating the option for something qualitatively bigger than anything we've seen 1/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin: "demilitarization and de-nazification of Ukraine"

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

11 months

The real loser here is of course Putin. He let his own Frankenstein get out of hand. He will pay the price in prestige and authority. Prigozhin will be gone soon enough but the damage will be permanent.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

this actually makes much more sense than MiG-29s, but I wish I weren’t reading about it in the @WSJ . Not sure why publicity is useful here.

U.S., Allies Look at Sending Soviet-Designed Air-Defense Systems to Ukraine

With Polish jets off the table, Western countries are considering other options to help Kyiv fight off Russia’s invasion.

www.wsj.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Regime change in Russia might seem like the only way out of this tragedy. But on closer examination it poses huge risks and is no more likely to make things better, than it is to make them worse. 7/7

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The scenario of a liberal reformist successor coming to power who begs forgiveness for Putin's sins would be great, but it would also be great to win the lottery. Equally if not more plausible are regime change scenarios that work out badly for everyone, Ukraine included.2/7

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

one comment from a source of theirs: "we don't have enough sobyanins [Moscow mayor -- known as a competent manager]" to manage Ukraine. "We don't even have enough Beglovs [St. Petersburg mayor, known as a completely incompetent manager]." END

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Looks like a lot of Russian government web sites are down, including the Kremlin, MFA, MOD, Government...

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

1 month

Happy to announce that I've been named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy @RANDCorporation . I appreciate the vote of confidence and look forward to continuing RAND's long tradition of important work on the region.

RAND

@RANDCorporation

1 month

Senior political scientist @scharap has been selected to serve as our inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Re: peace talks: Lots of skepticism out there about @ZelenskyyUa 's efforts to find a negotiated solution. Or rather skepticism about Russia's sincerity. Skepticism is more than warranted. But let's be clear. There will be a deal to end the war. 1/5

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

no one (among the "civilians") had any idea this was coming until the invasion had already started. not in the Government, prez admin, etc. Suggests the political planning is nonexistent. (consistent with what we're seeing) 3/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin's address starting. Thread.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin: "Russia cannot feel secure with [the threat from Ukraine" "we have no other choice but to use the means we are about to announce"

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The extent of the catastrophe that is unfolding before our eyes is hard to overstate.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

But I don’t think they were open to something short of decapitation/total surrender 7-10 days ago. A testament to the utter failure of their initial war plan and the resilience of the Ukrainians. 2/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin asking the Ukrainian military to drop their weapons and go home. holy cr2p

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

I believe this is the first joint Russian-Belarusian snap exercise. Ever.

Tadeusz Giczan

@TadeuszGiczan

2 years

Belarus announced joint drills with Russia to be held in February aimed against Polish, Lithuanian and Ukrainian military build-up. Lukashenko: "Ukraine keeps concentrating its radical nationalists from the National Guard next to our border. They are even worse than NATO troops".

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Given the intensity of fighting in the Donbas, it seems like there's a push ongoing to extend Russian control to the oblast borders before possible signing of a ceasefire. That's going to be tough given how dug in the Ukrainian JFO is. 1/3

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

9 months

‘ “If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?” asks an SAO according to ⁦ @alexbward ⁩. Good question.

‘Milley had a point’

www.politico.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Now threatening any country that considers intervening. "I hope that I have been heard"

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin not only recognized the DNR/LNR, he also signed "friendship and cooperation" treaties with them, essentially security guarantees. 2/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Wow, China is going all in on the bio labs conspiracy theorizing. Next Beijing will reveal the original “Dulles Plan” and the long lost video of Madeline Albright claiming that Siberia is the 51st state.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

New article in @ForeignAffairs a thread

How to Break the Cycle of Conflict With Russia

Seeking consensus isn’t appeasement—it’s pragmatism.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

If this starts, avoiding escalation to a Russia-NATO conflict will be very difficult. But essential.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

So I think #Putin has now set a record for most demands for legal guarantees of #NATO non-enlargement made in a single day. Apparently UK, Finnish and French leaders got the same ultimatum today.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

This regime is unlikely to go down without a fight against enemies domestic and foreign, real and imagined. Regime security = national security in the leaders' minds, and they'll treat threats to the former as threats to the latter. 3/7

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The horror of what is unfolding is beyond comprehension.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Now RBC reports that Putin will speak tomorrow on the "referendums". Note that he has not yet said anything definitive on annexation. If the reporting is right, he's tying his own hands. Not good. Definitely a sign of desperation.

В Кремле запланировали заявление Путина по референдумам

Владимир Путин во вторник, 20 сентября, может высказать свое отношение к референдумам на территории ЛНР, ДНР, Херсонской и Запорожской областей

www.rbc.ru

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

One real possibility is that an even-more-hardliner than Putin comes to power. Gorbachev 2.0 is far from inevitable. 6/7

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

well, this is an interesting plot twist: "US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. ... some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia."

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

whereas before this, Russia didn't have a justification for overt military intervention even under its own laws, now it will. This is an important element of the narrative that was missing. 3/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The Ukrainian resistance has clearly exceeded Moscow’s expectations — consistent with the Russian elite’s chauvinistic dismissiveness of Ukrainians’ ability to succeed at anything. Recall expectations of a “failed state” etc in 2014-2015. 1/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

If anyone has an idea of what a stable endgame is, I'd love to hear it. Not clear that any government involved in this conflict has one — at least a plausibly sustainable one.

Nikolai Sokov

@SokovNikolai

2 years

@scharap @ZelenskyyUa One problem with this invasion that severely complicates planning is that it's impossible to imagine Putin's idea of the end state. I increasingly feel he's replaying Gulf II with all mistakes (such as remove Saddam and it'll be a democracy) with only a fraction of resources.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Very happy to announce that the @RANDCorporation study I led on Russian coercive signaling is out! a thread 1/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

In other words, the strategic rationale for launching a major offensive is greater than it was before today. The Kremlin just swallowed its other bargaining chip. END.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Ugh, Putin speaking now @ 5:40am Moscow time.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Putin has made Ukraine into the “anti-Russia” of his pre-war paranoid fantasies.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Short take on Geneva today: it could have been worse.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Buckle up, in other words. bad things ahead. END

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Given the nature of the Russian demands, it's hard to see how talks can stop this war.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

It's hard to take pleasure in a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the world's largest country with the most nuclear warheads, rapidly sliding to rogue-state status. While Russia certainly deserves it, the consequences will be felt globally, for decades to come.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Keep in mind that Russian strategists have long posited that the (US) attempt to take them down will combine threats on the periphery, domestic unrest, and external military aggression. see ch 4 of the report @MassDara and I co-led: 4/7

Russia's Grand Strategy

Understanding Russia's grand strategy can help U.S. decisionmakers avoid strategic surprise by better-anticipating Moscow's actions and reactions. A new report reviews Russia's declared grand...

www.rand.org

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

clearly the legal niceties wouldn't have stopped Russia, but they always need some way of portraying their actions as something other than aggression. As Peskov put it yesterday, Russia has never attacked anyone ever, or something like that. 4/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

26 days

New piece out today with @DrRadchenko @ForeignAffairs on the history of the 2022 Istanbul talks and why they failed. We attempted to do justice to a complicated story 1/3

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine

A hidden history of diplomacy that came up short—but holds lessons for future negotiations.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Anti war protest (clearly a channel 1 staffer) interrupted Vremya, the main prime-time Russian state tv news show today.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

This is some dark, dark stuff

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Seems like Russia is preparing to publicly reframe “victory” as neutrality plus its territorial demands. No more demilitarization and de-whatever. Still not viable for Kyiv but getting closer.

Мединский заявил о готовности Киева выполнить «важнейшие условия»

Киев впервые показал свою готовность выполнить «важнейшие условия» Москвы, заявил Мединский. Накануне Украина передала России свои письменные предложения по политическому урегулированию

www.rbc.ru

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

To be fair, this might be impossible, as Macron's readout today suggests. But we have to try.

Rob Lee

@RALee85

2 years

The best thing the US can do to help Ukraine is to convince Putin that de-escalation is a less costly and risky option for him than continuing the war. Calling for regime change or assassination does the opposite.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Very interesting. Indicates where Russian war optimism came from.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Among the more striking aspects of the intl reaction to the war has been the breadth and depth of the (well-deserved) global outrage and the resulting acceleration of economic and political consequences for Russia not led by govts. 1/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Effective propaganda relies on a kernel of truth. The narrative here has been invented out of thin air. Unsurprising that this has failed spectacularly. US disclosures of their planning helped too.

Dmitri Alperovitch

@DAlperovitch

2 years

For all the fears over the last nearly 10 years about the Russian hybrid/information warfare capabilities and troll armies, they have completely lost the information war over this invasion of Ukraine

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

And if they are convinced that our policy is aimed at regime change, they will hit back, hard. 5/7

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

I see there's a lot of renewed interest on twitter in pre-war predictions about how Russia would fight. The bottom line is that no one I'm aware of predicted how (badly) Moscow would mess up the initial invasion. THREAD 1/

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

It is interesting that we haven’t seen any sign of Russian networks within Ukrainian state structures being used in this operation. At least not yet. Possibly an indication they weren’t in the loop. Or they didn’t exist. Too early to say for sure.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

New piece @ForeignPolicy with my RAND colleague Scott Boston.

The West’s Weapons Won’t Make Any Difference to Ukraine

U.S. military equipment wouldn’t realistically help Ukrainians—or intimidate Putin.

foreignpolicy.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Russian MOD activating CBRN defense procedures. This is bad.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Many during this crisis have assumed that continued diplomacy with #Russia indicates war is less likely. I'm not sure. A thread.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

This argument basically amounts to an assertion that the west should be prepared to sacrifice thousands of Ukrainians in the name of weakening Russia. Besides its immorality, this argument significantly understates the damage the war will do to the west.

Opinion | The Strategic Case for Risking War in Ukraine

An invasion would be a diplomatic, economic and military mistake for Putin. Let him make it if he must.

www.wsj.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Extremely important point.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

In case we had any illusions, MFA says that the talks will not end the invasion.

МИД РФ заявил, что возможные переговоры с Украиной не отменят военную операцию

Возможная организация переговоров с Киевом в Минске не отменяет реализации цели российской специальной военной операции на Украине, заявила официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова.

www.interfax.ru

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

"today's ukraine was totally and completely formed by Russia"

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

BREAKING: that whole exchange of letters thing didn’t fix the problem.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

One thought about what Russia's exit from the Minsk agreements — aka recognition of DNR/LNR — tells us about what is to come. Thread 1/x

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Well, we avoided one escalation pathway. But this is a symptom of a broader problem: well-intentioned efforts to help with lots of cooks in the kitchen accompanied by a lot of (well-deserved) anger and things could get out of hand, fast. Efforts need coordination.

Paul McLeary

@paulmcleary

2 years

It's official - Europe won't transfer fighter planes to Ukraine. Poland decided not to, and Slovakian defense ministry spokesperson confirms to me just now: “Slovakia will not provide fighter jets to Ukraine."

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Exclusive: U.S. assesses up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles, officials say

The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the...

www.reuters.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Since everyone is looking for military and informational signs of Russia’s seriousness (or not) about launching an invasion, it might make sense to also think about signs that the diplomatic track might actually be more than Kabuki theater/time-buying tactic/ point-scoring/ 1/9

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

When you can't win an argument, impugn the motives of your opponent. It's sad how far one of the former giants of the field has fallen.

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

2 years

@EmmaMAshford @scharap @scharap is persistently taking a pro-Putin line, just like you, ignoring the freedom and human rights of smaller countries in its neighborhood. Is that smart?

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

So since I've garnered a number of new followers this weekend, I thought I'd follow up on the substance of the discussion around my @POLITICOMag article. A thread.

Opinion | The U.S. Approach to Ukraine’s Border War Isn’t Working. Here’s What Biden Should Do...

An unsavory compromise may be everyone’s best hope.

www.politico.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Since there has been a lot of interest in a pre-war argument my colleague Scott Boston and I made about military assistance to Ukraine, I'm happy to admit that we were (partially) wrong. But it's important to understand why we were wrong, rather than engage in point scoring 1/8

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

New piece in @ForeignAffairs today. A thread

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

New op-ed @FT on avoiding a Russia-NATO war while pushing back on Russian aggression

Western allies must respond to Putin without risking escalation

The only outcome worse than the invasion of Ukraine itself would be a hot war between Russia and Nato

www.ft.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

11 months

New ⁦ @ForeignAffairs ⁩ piece out today on #Russia - #ukraine war and how it’s likely to end. And what the US can do about it. An Unwinnable War | Foreign Affairs

An Unwinnable War

Washington needs an endgame in Ukraine.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

And it would be a humiliating climbdown for Moscow to un-recognize the republics. Squaring that circle is likely a core challenge in the talks. 3/3

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The DNR/LNR "recognition" decision has left Putin with little choice but to seek full control of the regions. It has also seriously complicated any political settlement. No Ukrainian govt would agree to give up Donetsk and Luhansk. 2/3

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

With all due respect for @IvoHDaalder , I find this line particularly unconvincing: "Putin worries that if any of these states becomes a successful and prosperous democracy, let alone fully integrates with the west, the Russian people will demand the same." Thread

Sergey Radchenko

@DrRadchenko

2 years

An interesting op-ed by @IvoHDaalder : . Argues that the US must go all in to aid Ukraine in order to stop the "revival of Russian expansionism." I tend to side with @scharap in that it's unlikely that any such a build-up will alter the odds for Ukraine.

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

1 year

Feels like we have schizophrenia on Russia-China these days. One day Beijing is on the verge of arming Russia, and now "China rolls back unconditional support for Russia".

China rolls back unconditional support for Russia

Beijing is keen to repair ties with its leading trade partners in the west

www.ft.com

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

That said, we should not lose sight of the tactical implications. Rather than retreat, the Russian military is likely to double down and resort to far more brutality. 2/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

The bottom line is that (from Moscow's perspective) half-measures have failed for 8 years. And it doesn't take this kind of force to continue with them... 2/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

Will be interesting to see if moscow retaliates directly. Boeing depends on Russian titanium for its planes and has a research center in moscow.

AFP News Agency

@AFP

2 years

#BREAKING Boeing announces suspension of support for Russian airlines

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

One gets the sense another major Russian miscalculation is coming. if this is meant to scare Ukraine and the West into capitulating, it's not going to work. 1/2

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Samuel Charap

@scharap

2 years

New @ForeignAffairs piece out today. A case for why working with Ukraine for a negotiated end to the war is in U.S. interests.

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