Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social) @EmmaMAshford Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Seriously? I can't even get them to take the kids for the weekend.

The Tennessee Holler

@TheTNHoller

1 year

HUFF POST: “Sen. Marsha Blackburn Proposes Armed Grandparents Guarding Schools” 🤔

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Wow. 👀😬

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

How is balloon Twitter still a thing? States spy on each other. The correct response is to shoot the thing down, collect the debris for analysis, then maybe démarche the ambassador. The stupid response is to start a new Red Scare, the way some in DC seem to be aiming for.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Honestly? This type of overblown language from an ally worries me more than Macron's gaffes.

Mateusz Morawiecki

@MorawieckiM

1 year

The Evil Empire has been reborn in the East. Russian barbarians threaten not only Ukraine. They threaten all of Europe and the whole free world. This is no mere incident, no coincidence, no maniac’s impulse. Putin has been building his Evil Empire for 23 years, in preparation for…

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I am at the point of begging folks to read one history book about foreign policy that isn't about Munich. Literally any history book.

Christiane Amanpour

@amanpour

1 year

How does one negotiate with someone like Putin? “You’ve got to verify everything that he says or does. And you have to start from the principle that he’s not telling you the truth,” says former EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who’s negotiated with the Russian president.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

When I was born, Europe was not a fully free-trade area. When I was five, the European Union didn't exist. When I was ten, there was no common European currency. So I tend to view "Europe cannot come together" arguments with skepticism.

Matthew Kroenig

@MatthewKroenig

1 year

The problem with this argument is “Europe” doesn’t exist in the defense space. 30+ countries will make 30+ independent decisions- some contrary to US interests, such as accommodating Putin. The transatlantic alliance needs a leader and only the US can play that role.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

This is beyond absurd. Why should the US make this kind of commitment to fair-weather friends like the Saudis in exchange for improving relations with Israel, something which is already happening gradually anyway?

Alex Ward

@alexbward

11 months

“Prince Mohammed’s initial demands were steep: U.S. guarantees to defend Saudi Arabia from military attack, a Saudi-American partnership to enrich uranium for a civilian nuclear program and fewer restrictions on U.S. arms sales to the kingdom.”

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

This is really disturbing, suggesting more of an active role for the Pentagon in the war in Ukraine than I suspect many Americans would be comfortable with.

Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say

Ukrainian officials say that they almost never launch HIMARS rounds without precise coordinates provided by U.S. military personnel, revealing a more operationally active role for the Pentagon in the...

www.washingtonpost.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

This has always been the problem with arguments in favor of regime change: the two most obvious successful examples are so extreme as to be useless for comparison.

Michael McFaul

@McFaul

1 year

P.S. Like Germany after 1945, a complete defeat of Russian imperialism in 2023 would begin to create the permissive conditions for Russia to finally become a normal, European country after the Putin era ends. 2/END

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

How in God's name is "Asia First" an isolationist policy? Is Asia part of America now? Is it "quasi-isolationist" to suggest that some regions are more important than others? 🤔 Back in my day, we just called that prioritization. And it was a core part of strategic thinking.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

And I’m sure that everyone will be completely sanguine and unbothered about this, because spheres of influence are a thing of the past, and countries can choose their own alignments, right? 🤔

WSJ News Exclusive | Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S.

Beijing agreed to pay Havana several billion dollars for allowing it to set up an eavesdropping facility about 100 miles from Florida.

www.wsj.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

US Foreign Policy:

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

My takeaway from everything happening in Russia is that Toynbee was basically right when he pointed out that history is just one damn thing after another.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

Crazy idea, I know. But if other countries don't like the United States wielding the most political power inside NATO, then perhaps they could develop their own military capabilities as a counterbalance?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Today my five year-old attempted to frame her sister for writing on the wall, scrawling her sister's name in huge letters. It was a perfect plan, but she forgot one key detail: her younger sister can't write yet. 🤔

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Man, Twitter is such a worse place for the loss of Popehat. Read his barnburner on free speech, universities, and Stanford’s many failures.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The irony here is Iraq should probably be considered MORE of a failure if we assume the goal was to build a stable, liberal order, than if we simply assume it was about terrorism or WMD. Imagine looking at the Iraq war and thinking, "yes, that's how we build a better world."

Stephen Wertheim

@stephenwertheim

1 year

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

I'm not opposed to a Napoleon biopic, but wouldn't it really be better as a prestige-style TV show a la "The Crown" that covers his whole life with different actors?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

7 months

I am literally begging you to stop using 'isolationist' and 'non-interventionist' to describe people who want to invade Mexico.

Zeeshan Aleem

@ZeeshanAleem

7 months

Many of us on the left have warned that it's a mistake to see the nationalist right as anti-war or anti-interventionist. They oppose nation-building, not use of force. This is militant nationalism:

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I feel like I might just take a mental health break from the internet for the next few days.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Absolutely inexplicable. Why would Latin American countries blame the US for past ills, accuse the US of not offering anything to them economically, while welcoming Chinese trade that could potentially boost their economies? 🤔 Truly, a puzzle. 🙄

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

“It is telling that what seems to be intended as a reasonable and accommodating statement is, in fact, so jarring. China must accept America’s demarcation of the status quo.” Janet Yellen’s speech was not reassuring.

America Has Dictated Its Economic Peace Terms to China

By refusing negotiation over China’s rise, the United States might be making conflict inevitable.

foreignpolicy.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Who's excited we get to run a real-world test of alliance entrapment theory?

Poland says it will be first NATO country to give fighter jets to Ukraine

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the country would deliver the first Soviet-made MiG-29s in the coming days.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

"Rules-based" Order. Where apparently sovereignty isn't one of the rules any more. 🤷‍♀️

Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell

@DeputySecState

1 year

Thrilled to announce with @Tsihanouskaya a comprehensive Strategic Dialogue between the U.S. and the leaders of the Belarusian pro-democracy movement & civil society and affirm our enduring commitment to a democratic, sovereign & stable future for Belarus.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

“Leaders in Washington need to face an uncomfortable truth: A self-reliant EU is a better partner than a dependent one.” My former colleague @benjaminhaddad in foreign policy, making a lot of sense.

Macron Said Out Loud What Europeans Really Think About China

Leaders in Washington need to face an uncomfortable truth: A self-reliant EU is a better partner than a dependent one.

foreignpolicy.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The best parallel for the Arab Spring really was the revolutions of 1848. Ten years on, the forces of reaction have largely triumphed.

AFP News Agency

@AFP

1 year

#BREAKING Saudi Arabia said it has decided to allow its diplomats to resume work in Damascus, more than a decade after withdrawing them over the Syrian civil war

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Think I'll just leave this quote from the Biden administration's National Security Strategy here. "We have too often defaulted to military-centric policies underpinned by an unrealistic faith in force and regime change to deliver sustainable outcomes." 🤦‍♀️

CNAS

@CNASdc

1 year

"U.S. leaders should consider sending private messages to Iran’s political and military leaders indicating its resolve to see them removed from power should they not abandon the nuclear program," CNAS experts find in a NEW report. Read more:

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The thing is, imagine how insane this would have sounded in, say, 1975. That the problem wasn’t the balance of power or nuclear weapons, but rather our failures to adequately punish the Soviet Union for breaking liberal norms? 🤔

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

At a certain point, I think we just have to accept that everything about Trump's moral character has already been put before the voters for consideration and... they just didn't care that much.

Damon Linker

@DamonLinker

11 months

At this point, I feel like we are stuck in some kind of bizarre news loop about Trump in which every "breaking" story is just a retread of a past "breaking" story. Here's one from Oct 2016 about Trump creepily lusting after Ivanka:

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

This column's arguments about China and the Cold War remind me of nothing so much as the episode of Blackadder where they discuss the origins of WWI. 🤦‍♀️

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The idea that the war in Ukraine will destroy global order is just a modern revival of domino theory. You'll see it in commentary that Putin's invasion will embolden Xi Jinping to attack Taiwan, or somewhat less subtly, in this actual not-ironic editorial cartoon. 😬

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

"Democracy dies in... hey, you know what, guys? Never mind." 🤦‍♀️

The New York Times

@nytimes

1 year

Intelligence leaks surrounding who blew up most of the Russian-backed Nord Stream pipelines last September have provided more questions than answers. It may be in no one’s interest to reveal more.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The idea that it is somehow impossible to negotiate with adversaries is entirely ahistorical. There are entire subfields of international relations and history devoted to understanding diplomacy, negotiations, intelligence and verification... all of it!

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Based on today's takes, as I understand it: Invade Iraq? "Mistakes were made." Mismanage your bank? "Must have been the women!"

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The defense budget is almost a trillion dollars and we can’t figure out how to shoot down a hot air balloon?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

If Twitter is accurate, then the key takeaway from what has happened in Russia in the last 24 hours is *insert priors here.* 🙄

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

It's a well-written argument, but it really should have a disclaimer up front. How is it not a conflict of interest that the author of an article about why Europe should 'Buy American' on arms is employed by Boeing?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I look at this and it boggles my mind that some European states aren't hedging more on defense given the obvious growing undercurrents in parts of the Republican party opposed to continued US blank check support for European defense...

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Look what arrived in the mail! So happy to have contributed to this impressively comprehensive IR compendium on the Trump presidency and their impact.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Happy Monday! Let's see what the internet has in store today... oh. 🙄🤦‍♀️😖

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Plus, Americans always act surprised when other countries - allies or adversaries - act in their self-interest.

Michael Shurkin

@MichaelShurkin

1 year

Ok, I read Macron's Echos interview about China. He said nothing new, and nothing the French haven't been saying for decades. What Americans should take away is that the IRA pisses off Europeans. We need to deal with that.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Pleased to contribute an essay to @ForeignAffairs series on one year of war in Ukraine. I wrote about what the war has shown about great power competition — and why it’s so important not to learn the wrong lessons from 2022.

The Persistence of Great-Power Politics

What the war in Ukraine has revealed about geopolitical rivalry.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I can't think of a better way to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq than to vote to repeal these AUMFs.

Time to rip up the president's blank check for war

The 2002 military authorization — up for a vote today — is largely symbolic. The 2001 AUMF is what's being used to justify all post-9/11 interventions.

responsiblestatecraft.org

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

5 months

“Israel’s military operation in Gaza is both strategically and morally unrecoverable. The legacy of this maximalist assault will haunt Israel for years.” This is very well done.

Reversing America’s Ruinous Support for Israel’s Assault on Gaza - War on the Rocks

Since the brutal attacks by Hamas on Oct. 7, I have been filled with a familiar sense of dread as the Israeli government has squandered the sympathy and

warontherocks.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Quickest way to cut the defense budget would be for congress to ban PowerPoint.

Jen Judson

@JenJudson

1 year

Yes the triad of triads of course. 🫠

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

More fundamentally, arguments that Ukraine is the lynchpin of global order fall down on comparison. If the war in Ukraine will cause liberal order to collapse, why didn't Nagorno-Kharabakh? Why didn't the invasion of Iraq? Why not Israeli intervention in Gaza or KSA in Yemen?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

A notable paragraph in this article from such mainstream authors; just a few months ago, this viewpoint was nearly beyond the pale in Washington.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

On international relations, the main problem with Fukuyama's argument was always the notion that ideology drives conflict, not power or policy disagreements. The only reason his theory looked plausible was the preponderance of US power in the 90s/2000s.

The Liberal Discontents of Francis Fukuyama

“The End of History?” was more than just commentary; it was an announcement of victory. And yet, nearly a quarter-century later, its author remains unsure if liberalism truly won.

www.thenation.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

This is either the dumbest thing I've ever read, or the most brilliant idea ever formulated. Next up: let's solve world hunger by giving everyone a burrito.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

The other thing is: this isn’t true! Putin has escalated repeatedly, from mobilization to infrastructure strikes. He has refrained from direct attacks on NATO and nuclear use, but these are near the top of the escalation ladder. Lots of escalation options between here and there.

Mark Gubrud

@mgubrud

1 year

The logic here: We've been lucky so far, so let's push it. It hasn't happened yet, so clearly there's no danger. It hasn't happened yet BECAUSE Putin has no good way, but if sufficiently desperate, he may try a bad way. And nukes are not the only option for risky escalation. +

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

That 2016 open letter on Trump is still the most accurate take on his foreign policy: “His vision of American influence and power in the world is wildly inconsistent and unmoored in principle. He swings from isolationism to military adventurism within the space of one sentence.”

Acyn

@Acyn

11 months

Trump: When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over, we would have gotten all that oil.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

@SevaUT There's a lot of evidence for the foreign policy version of this too. A lot of the mistakes made by the US since 1991 would have been far less likely to happen during the Cold War...

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Kind of amazing the extent to which we all just ignore the fact that US policy towards North Korea has been such a failure and with every missile, act like “oh, that’s just North Korea.”

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Hear me out here: perhaps some kind of universal basic income for folks of advanced age, so they could supplement that income with additional work if they wanted, or choose not to work if their health were bad? We could call it a "pension."

Ken Klippenstein

@kenklippenstein

1 year

World Economic Forum: “We desperately need to disrupt our approach to retirement saving” “Many people will want to work past mandatory retirement age…others will need to work longer to remain financially resilient in later life.”

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

3 months

@alexbward

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Trump shouldn’t worry. This headline from today suggests there’s life after classified documents scandals in Washington, as long as you have the right connections. 🤦‍♀️🙄

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

It’s also a stupid enough argument that I intend to use the phrase “NATO embiggenment” unless people give it up.

Tim Sayle

@timsayle

10 months

My take: if you think there is a big distinction between the phrases “NATO expansion” and “NATO enlargement,” and that one is “right” and the other “wrong”, then you are giving someone else power over language that they do not deserve to have.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

3 months

But again, the question isn't just American reliability. Its why European states - who have had an astounding US-taxpayer funded holiday from history - can't get their act together even after four years of Trump, and clear warnings that the US was going to de-prioritize Europe.

Alexander Clarkson 

@APHClarkson

3 months

This isn't just about Ukraine, this comes down to whether Europeans can trust the United States to act as a reliable ally.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Actual social science FTW! @PeterHarrisCSU points out that it's not a binary question of whether "NATO expansion" caused the war in Ukraine. It was an INUS condition -- an insufficient component of broader factors that caused the war, but didn't make it inevitable.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Perhaps instead of arguing that the problem is Macron giving Xi Jinping a pr win, we should instead be contemplating what this whole episode says about divergent points of view on geopolitics even among close US allies?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

The timing of this story dropping is frankly almost as interesting as the story itself.

Samuel Oakford

@samueloakford

11 months

Bombshell new exclusive from @shaneharris + @smekhennet : Three months before saboteurs attacked Nord Stream, the U.S. learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the pipeline network.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I have no doubt your opinions are sincerely held. But both you and your employer have a direct financial interest in the topic upon which you are writing. That’s the textbook definition of “conflict of interest,” and it at least merits a disclaimer up front for the reader.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

@gbrew24 Did you know that prior to the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, most Afghans had never even seen an iPhone?!

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Folks may not know this, but the main reason why I've always advocated for less US commitment to MENA & Europe was to focus resources on the rising threat of China. But in the last year, the DC consensus has blown right past my concerns into full-blown war panic.

Daniel W. Drezner

@dandrezner

1 year

Let's try to avoid a security dilemma over Taiwan, okay?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Poor @mattduss had to read Mike Pompeo's autobiography. You should read his review and what it says about some foreign policy voices on the right today.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

Operationally, I’m sure putting this in motion makes perfect sense. But it’s horrible PR to announce that US reserves might have to be mobilized to protect Europe right after a NATO summit with almost no visible progress on burden sharing.

Ordering the Selected Reserve and Certain Members of the Individual Ready Reserve of the Armed...

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that...

www.whitehouse.gov

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

Fascinating to see a liberal internationalist openly espouse what they accuse realists of wanting to do: kill international institutions if they don’t produce the preferred result. It’s a tacit acknowledgment that power matters, but w/o noticing institutions help in other ways.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

What a damning read. It’s amazing the extent to which America’s instruments of non-military power have atrophied — or been captured by other interests.

Foreign Aid Was Supposed To Help Nations In Need. It Has Instead Enriched Western Contractors

How the aid-industrial complex undercuts regional expertise and gives a competitive advantage to Western contractors with networks of ‘independent consultants’

newlinesmag.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

This is just not true. Western nations could provide Ukraine with planes - but that doesn't equal air superiority. Unless you mean NATO should engage in direct conflict with the Russian air force? This sounds suspiciously like the "no-fly zone" arguments from last year.

David Frum

@davidfrum

10 months

NATO has abundant means to provide Ukraine security of its airspace and air supremacy over its battle space. Yet even now, those means lag. Meanwhile, US ex-officials seek to negotiate over Ukraine's head and behind Ukraine's back.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

9 months

I’m not saying I have schadenfreude, but seeing the man who once told me (to my face!) that “women don’t have the mental capacity to think strategically” outed as a vile white supremacist is certainly a cheery way to start the weekend.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

4 months

Imagine showing this tweet to some who just woke up from a ten year coma.

South Asia Index

@SouthAsiaIndex

4 months

Just IN:— Afghan taliban say recent violence between Iran & Pakistan is "worrying", call on both countries to exercise restraint & avoid violence.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Reader, my head literally exploded upon reading this.

The Global South Owes America Some Thanks

The rules-based order crafted after World War II has been favorable — transformative, even — for the developing world.

www.bloomberg.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

This is such an important point, and something that we should all be aware of as we talk about European defense: recent spending increases may actually increase dependence on the US, not lessen it.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

The publication timing on this could not have been worse. So why not check it out while you wait to see how Prigozhin bites the dust?

Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipeline?

Its destruction reflects decades of energy disputes dating back to the Soviet era.

foreignpolicy.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

No matter what you say, it's not "anti-war" if you commit goddamn war crimes.

Ken Klippenstein

@kenklippenstein

1 year

Rep. Matt Gaetz’s military advisor is a convicted war criminal who served 8 years in prison for murdering an Afghan civilian during an interrogation.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

If you ever feel like you have imposter syndrome, just remember that Shoigu is still getting medals.

WarTranslated (Dmitri)

@wartranslated

11 months

Putin is set to award soldiers who "took part in suppressing the mutiny" in Kremlin. Shoygu is ready to receive another award. Man is not going anywhere, it seems.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Why? If congress is directly managing a future war over Taiwan, then things have gone very badly indeed. More useful for these lawmakers would be understating the economic, political, and strategic issues at stake — none of which you get from a wargame.

House China Committee goes to war (game)

www.politico.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I know everyone’s watching Turkey, but this might be more remarkable.

Susannah Patton

@SusannahCPatton

1 year

The Thai election results are remarkable. Voters, especially in Bangkok and urban areas, have almost entirely repudiated military-backed parties, with these winning less than 80 out of 500 seats in parliament on initial counts. A couple of thoughts on what will come next: 1/🧵👇

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

6 months

I believe I speak for many of us when I say: great power competition sucks.

Aimee Cho

@AimeeCho4

6 months

This is the “Panda Express” FedEx plane, that will carry the 3 beloved DC pandas on their 19 hour journey to China 🐼 @nbcwashington @Dulles_Airport

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I have a lot of thoughts on this, many of them confused. But anyone willing to mea culpa themselves publicly as Max Boot does here should be applauded for that.

What the Neocons Got Wrong

How the Iraq War taught me about the limits of American power.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

6 months

You can say all you like that anything short of complete Russian defeat is a loss for us, but it’s just untrue. This war has been a strategic loss for Russia for a year or more.

William Wohlforth

@WCWohlforth

6 months

If this is correct, it would still be major strat defeat for Russia. I'm seeing the standard goalpost shifting all over this site: if RU not totally and completely defeated, huge loss for US/allies. World historical RU failure re its pol objective in UKR also = loss for US. 🤔

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

7 months

@zackbeauchamp Goodness only knows, he hasn't abandoned his misogyny. But I guess that's less problematic for some folks.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

I continue to believe that this is the worst of all worlds -- repeating the mistakes of the 2008 Bucharest Summit without seriously considering if the alternatives might be better for everyone.

David Cadier

@DavidCadier

10 months

NATO allies agree to decide that they will decide when they agree

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Lord WarGit, Spicy Detective

@WarGit

1 year

Similar energy:

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

And there is no diplomatic settlement that can guarantee against future war! Building robust settlements is a good goal, but on some level, you always have to accept this possibility, and just kick Napoleon's ass again if it comes to it.

VictorK1862

@VictorK1862

1 year

@EmmaMAshford You can't negotiate with Napoleon, he'll just exploit lingering revolutionary sentiment and Bourbon and missteps to return from Elba and restart the war!

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

How is it possible that in the year of our lord 2023 think tanks are still failing to adequately disclose their foreign funding when testifying before congress?

House hearing showcases UAE and Bahrain funding at the witness table

All three witnesses on the 'Abraham Accords' have connections and/or financial ties to signatories of the deal.

responsiblestatecraft.org

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

No. Different regions can have different strategic value to different states. Come on.

The China-Global South Project

@ChinaGSProject

1 year

“China thinks the Middle East is important. That probably means we ought to think the Middle East is important" -- Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Why are we having constant debates about specific systems, rather than broader debates about our strategy in Ukraine? Well, for one thing, it's easier and less controversial to discuss details of weapons.

What US weapons tell us about the Russia-Ukraine war

The debate around which weapons to send to Ukraine, explained.

www.vox.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

Ah, time to enjoy a quiet, restful Friday afternoon.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

I know I'm by inclination a free trader, but if we can't all agree that "Made in America... by prison labor" is worse than just making those products abroad, then we have a bigger problem than just disagreeing about trade.

Steve Lamar

@stevewonk

1 year

In what universe does making products in U.S. Federal Prison factories “represent American manufacturing at its best.”? Why is the @CommerceGov promoting U.S. prison factories at @SelectUSA this week?

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

Saying "great power competition has returned" without considering how or why that shift occurred now is the laziest screenwriting since The Rise of Skywalker.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

There's definitely a scenario here in which the US and Europe pay for this war, but China is the biggest beneficiary of rebuilding Ukraine afterwards.

Theresa Fallon

@TheresaAFallon

1 year

Here is Zelenskyy's tweet on Xi call. I don't want to over analyse it but isn't it a bit curious that in the middle of a bloody conflict on Ukrainian soil there is no mention of it, no mention of Russia, but looking forward to "the development of our bilateral relations." 🧐

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

9 months

@mattyglesias I heard the Pope was catholic, too.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

It’s more of an accounting trick than an accounting error, really, isn’t it? I mean, we still have to buy the new weapons; the replacement cost is the true cost to the taxpayer, not the cost of the older systems themselves…

Pentagon says Ukraine accounting error revealed last month is much bigger than previously stated |...

The Pentagon announced Tuesday that the accounting error revealed last month was significantly more than previously stated and aid provided to Ukraine was overvalued by $6.2 billion rather than $3...

www.cnn.com

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

11 months

I’m deeply sympathetic to this argument, but if we did seize these Russian assets, it might have long term impacts on the dollar and on the global financial system that we can’t control.

Foreign Affairs

@ForeignAffairs

11 months

“Bank robbers should not expect banks to honor their safe deposit boxes.” @LHSummers , Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick outline an ambitious European recovery program focused on rebuilding Ukraine—and sustained by frozen Russian assets.

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

10 months

The fact this is getting such strong and immediate pushback on here suggests that there is, in fact, potentially something to it.

NBC News

@NBCNews

10 months

BREAKING: A group of former U.S. national security officials are holding secret talks with prominent Russians, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, with the aim of laying the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, sources tell @NBCNews .

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

This looks like a must-read. A horrible, terrible, no-good, very depressing must-read.

The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture

Abstract. Amid an intensifying rivalry with the United States, China is modernizing and significantly expanding its nuclear forces. These developments fuel concerns that China's traditional nuclear...

direct.mit.edu

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

What better way to celebrate the coronation than kid-made afternoon tea? 🇬🇧 👑 🇬🇧

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Emma Ashford (@emmamashford.bsky.social)

@EmmaMAshford

1 year

This does not give me the warm fuzzies. Seriously: this is really dangerous in the context of crisis management. We learned that the hard way during the Cold War.