Professor Adrian Esterman @profesterman Twitter profile

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Omicron BA.2 is about 1.4 times more infectious than BA.1. The basic reproduction number (R0) for BA.1 is about 8.2, making R0 for BA.2 about 12. This makes it pretty close to measles, the most contagious disease we know about.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Dr Kerry Chant keeps urging people in NSW to wear face masks, which makes you wonder why the government removed this public health measure.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Apparently National Cabinet have just agreed to scrap isolation for infected people. This is clearly a political decision rather than a public health one. So much for the governments' duty to protect the population.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I have written an opinion piece for The Guardian which points out that in the face of rapidly escalating case numbers, and without booster shots, little protection from Omicron infection, a sensible government would be increasing public health measures, not relaxing them.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Scott Morrison "You cannot have different rules in different places". Is this a joke?

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Some takeaways from this afternoon's National Covid Forum briefing. (1) RATs still work for BA.4/5; (2) Repeat infections lead to worse long-term outcomes; (3) Covid will soon be leading cause of death.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Liberal National MP George Christensen has now publicly called for parents not to vaccinate their kids. How could people vote for him?

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

From the 31 January, the interval for the booster will go down to 3 months, which makes you wonder why they can't do it now.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I am amazed at how many people on twitter believe that masks don't work. KN95/P2 masks are highly effective. Surgical masks are also good, but about half as effective as KN95/P2 masks. Cloth masks provide some - but not much protection. And, you must wear them over your nose!

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Dale Godfrey from the Doherty Institute points out that Omicron appears milder than Delta, because it more easily infects vaccinated people than Delta, and vaccinated people tend to have milder disease. Potentially, it could actually cause more severe disease in the unvaccinated.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

An SBS reporter asked me if our governments were putting people with compromised immune systems at risk by the "you have to live with it" approach. Yes - and our frail elderly, and those who have to have treatment in hospital who might catch COVID in there.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Scott Morrison argues that wearing a face mask is like putting on sunscreen, ie recommended but not essential. This is nonsense - not only can it save your life and prevent serious illness, it can protect other people if you are infectious. Sunscreen certainly won't do that.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

On behalf of South Australians, you have our apology. This will keep happening until we fix the medi-hotel system and have proper purpose build quarantine stations.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Omicron BA.4 has just been found in a traveler returning from South Africa to NSW. BA.4 is dominating in South Africa, and has an R0 of about 15, similar to measles, our most contagious disease. The subvariant BA2.12.1 also has an R0 of 15, and is taking over in the USA.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

From a reporter "What about the people who can't afford rapid antigen tests". Scott Morrison carefully deflected the question and did not answer it.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

South Australia will remove the mask mandate on the 14th April. I think this sends the wrong message to the public - that it is all over.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I am sure we all wish Mary-Louise McLaws @MarylouiseMcla a successful treatment and speedy recovery from her brain tumour.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Albanese re face mask mandates - "The question is, are people complying with them? There’s no good having a mandate unless it’s enforced”. Nonsense, there is good evidence that mandating face masks greatly increases the number of people wearing them. No need for enforcement.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

9 months

Mary-Louise McLaws, renowned epidemiologist who helped guide Australia through the pandemic, dies aged 70 from brain tumour via @ABCaustralia I am very sad to share this. Mary-Louise was an esteemed colleague and a voice of reason.

Mary-Louise McLaws, renowned epidemiologist who helped guide Australia through the pandemic, dies...

Mary-Louise McLaws, who was an epidemiologist at UNSW Sydney for more than 35 years and shared crucial information during the pandemic, has died after a long illness, her family has announced.

www.abc.net.au

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Perrottet and Rockcliff are pushing to completely scrap isolation for those infected. This is complete madness. Haven't they seen the situation in the UK? The NHS is in desperate strife and case numbers in the UK are starting to go up again.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Joseph Stalin is reported to have said "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic". It is very easy to become complacent when reporting daily deaths from covid. Each one is a grieving family.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Well, some good and bad news from Victoria. Another 1571 local cases, but 13 deaths. The 5-day moving average is down again to 1692, and The Reff has finally dropped below 1 at 0.99. It should really be a good moment, but there are too many grieving families.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Just watching Dan Andrew's presser. The lockdown in Victoria is appropriate, but as he says "we are on the edge of it getting away from us". He pointed out that the only thing that will keep things under control is everyone doing the right thing. I think he is doing a great job.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Quote from ABC "Ms Berejiklian warned the surge in cases over the last two days was expected to continue but gave her strongest indication yet that some of her state's COVID-19 lockdown restrictions would be eased later this month." The logic defeats me.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Another 535 cases for Victoria with sadly another death. The 5-day moving average is up from 465 to 479, but the Reff has dropped to 1.16 from 1.19, the 5th drop in a row.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

A top of 30 in Adelaide. Victoria had another 1510 cases and 4 deaths overnight. The 5-day moving average has dropped to 1737, its lowest for quite a few days. Even better, the Reff is down to 0.9, the lowest since the beginning of August. Lovely to be the bearer of good news.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Another sunny day in Adelaide with a top of 20 - coming your way Melbourne! For Victoria, another 423 local cases, taking the 5-day MA to 433, and the Reff has DROPPED from 1.53 to 1.39. My prediction for today was 636. So, I am pleased to say that I got it wrong.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews said there was a simple solution to Djokovic’s conundrum. “Just get vaccinated”. Well said Dan! In fact ATAGI recommend vaccination after recovery from infection as soon as symptoms have disappeared.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

If you are wondering why case numbers are starting to rise, Omicron BA.5 is now accounting for 35% of sequences genotyped in Australia.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I do hope all my followers have a happy Christmas and New Year. Please keep safe.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Greater Sydney's lockdown is now until the end of September. A curfew will take place in 12 LGAs and there are new restrictions like having to wear a mask outside. This is welcome, but why isn’t the curfew across all Greater Sydney, and why wasn’t this done 10 weeks ago?

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

1 year

The COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce will no longer be funded at the end of the year. This is terribly disappointing.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

I didn't want to do this, but here you are, and apologies to my Victorian followers. Unless vaccination kicks in, or there is some other change, Victoria is likely to have 324 daily cases in a weeks time, and 726 daily cases in 2 weeks time.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Only 2 more days of daily case numbers, after which it will be weekly reports on Fridays. I won't be able to estimate effective reproduction number from weekly data. Clearly, the less information we give the general public, the less chance there is of them worrying about it!

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

1 year

My talented work wife’s most recent painting

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

SA Health has just opened 4 long-covid clinics.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

681 local cases in NSW overnight and another death. My forecast was 540 cases. The 5-day moving average is now 516, and the Reff has gone up to 1.35, its highest level since the 1st August. At the NSW presser on now, GB says "There is light at the end of the tunnel". Hmmm.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Then please stop removing public health measures!

Health authorities worried about Omicron sub-variant as case numbers in NSW rise

Brad Hazzard says new data shows the BA.2 sub-variant is becoming the dominant Omicron offshoot, and COVID-19 cases could "more than double" in weeks.

www.abc.net.au

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Just spoken to a friend. He and his partner recovering from Covid-19. Although she was triple-dosed, and is young, still very sick for a few days. This is not mild.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

If my forecast for NSW is anywhere near accurate, they are likely to have close to 3000 cases a day by the middle of the month. If the 15% hospitalisation rate is true, then that means 450 hospital places a day are needed for COVID-19 patients.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Good Morning - a sunny day and 26 in Adelaide. Another 514 local cases in Victoria, with the 5-day moving average at 445, and the Reff down from 1.39 to 1.31. I know 514 sounds worrying, but the chart shows the rate of growth slowing down from about the 12th September.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Just chatting with the sister-in-law in the UK. When she goes to her local chemist, she gets a pack of 10 rapid antigen tests for home use free of charge. What a good idea!

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the federal government plans to make "high-quality masks" available to Americans for free. What a good idea! Will our government step up?

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

As for Dan - I hate this dichotomy between those who love him and those who don't. He is a human being trying to make decent decisions on behalf of all Victorians. Some decisions have been good, some not so good. But that is life.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

According to WHO, a test positivity rate of <5% means the epidemic is under control. Here are the figures for Australia from

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I gave a presentation to the South Australian Parliament COVID-19 Direction Accountability and Oversight committee this morning. My bottom line was that we need more and better messaging about booster shots, mask wearing and long COVID. I also talked about improved ventilation.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I am pleased to say that my own university has undertaken a ventilation audit, increased the refresh rate of the HVACs, and installed air purifiers where this wasn't possible. We care for our staff and students. @unisa @ARENA_UniSA

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Just to clarify. At diagnosis, infected unvaccinated and vaccinated people have a similar viral load. However, the vaccinated people have fewer symptoms, so are less likely to pass it on. Also, over the next few days, the viral load in vaccinated people drops much more rapidly.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

My apologies to Victorians. It appears that we have had 200 protesters in Adelaide as well. It just goes to show that #COVIDIOTS are everywhere. That's a worry.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Just been interviewed by Channel 7 - do I agree with SA government relaxing most public health measure? No! There are still a lot of vulnerable people out there - the elderly, those with chronic conditions, and this is putting them at high risk. And don't forget Long COVID.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

A guy in quarantine who was found to be positive, decided to go shopping, and has now put everyone at risk. We have them in SA as well.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

The NSW government will be sending free rapid antigen tests to people's homes. Well, at last they have got something right!

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Without those additional 500 cases because of people getting together for the AFL, the Reff for Victoria would be 1.18 instead of 1.31.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

BA.2.12.1 now accounts for 25% of cases in the USA. BA.4 is rapidly becoming the dominant strain in South Africa. Increasing case numbers will inevitably result in increasing hospitalisations and more people with long-Covid. This is real and happening now.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

For those interested, Omicron BA.1 still accounts for 93% of cases in Australia, BA.2 6%, and Delta 1%.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

It looks like the face mask mandate will be lifted in SA. I think this is premature because (1) it sends a wrong message that the epidemic is over; (2) many vulnerable people can't get their 4th dose yet; (3) case numbers are still high.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

One of the reasons we are starting to see cases increasing in most regions is that 28% of samples sequenced are now Omicron BA.2, which we know is about 1.4 times more transmissible than BA.1. It accounted for 10% of samples last week.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Another cloudy day in Adelaide with a top of 23. There were 1466 new local cases for Victoria with sadly 8 deaths. The 5-day moving average is down to 1743, the first drop in about 7 weeks, and the Reff is down to 1.10. Definitely a hint of peak in the air.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

A sub-branch of Omicron called BA.2 has just been declared a variant under investigation by the UK. It is more difficult to detect than the original Omicron variant, and has many additional mutations. Potentially more transmissible than original Omicron, but likely same severity.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

Sun 20 Sept. Only 14 cases in Victoria just announced. Sadly, another 5 deaths. The end is in sight. Reff down to 0.76. For those who thought it would never happen - you were wrong.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

The easyNAT COVID-19 RNA test has been approved by the TGA. This is a highly accurate rapid PCR test available for home use. At the moment, it will only be sold to authorities, but will eventually be made available to the general public.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

5 infected truck drivers going through South Australia is as many days is crazy. Interstate truck drivers really must be made a priority for vaccination.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Much discussion about Dan's comments on careful reopening and whether NSW got there first. This is silly. The only important thing is that all Premiers are heeding public health advice, and making sure that we are safe as a country. There is no place for politics in this.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

The ABC reports that Melbourne will go into lockdown from midnight tonight. If correct, this is a sensible decision, and one that NSW should have taken at this stage of the outbreak.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Morning fellow tweeters. Vic Health just announced another 3 community cases overnight, following 3 the day before. The 5-day moving average s now 4.8. This is good news - it looks very much like they have this under control.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Queensland Health are no longer reporting COVID stats over the weekend. Unbelievable!

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

Just listening to DA and CHO's presser. I think the 'pause' is sensible. It won't necessarily delay the opening up of restrictions, but will provide confirmation (hopefully) that the current cluster is contained.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Long Covid is the elephant in the room, but it seems invisible to our politicians | Adrian Esterman My new article for The Guardian

Long Covid is the elephant in the room, but it seems invisible to our politicians | Adrian Esterman

As Australia tries to live with the virus, an increasing number of people may have to live with its potential long-term effects

www.theguardian.com

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

Only 73 cases in Victoria overnight, but sadly 41 deaths. Today's number fits exactly onto my predicted trend line. We are still heading for single digits by next weekend if this keeps up. Hang in there.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I said in my Guardian piece that I would be surprised if ATAGI didn't reduce the time for a booster. They are meeting again now to discuss it.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

I wonder if Scott Morrison and Greg Hunt will congratulate Dan and all Victorians?

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

NSW has another 882 local cases, bringing their 5-day moving average higher from 837 to 849. However, the Reff has dropped from 1.18 to 1.13, the 5th drop in a row. It could be that we are starting to see the increase in infections slowing down, which is good news.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I’m boosted. Thank you Terry White chemist for a quick and smooth service. And just FYI, I got the half dose Moderna after two AZ.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

A cold morning in Adelaide, but warming to 18. Victoria has another 79 cases, 53 linked so far. The 5-day moving average for Victoria is up slightly to 63.2, but the Reff has dropped from 1.2 to 1.0. Things could still go either way, but the decreasing Reff is a good sign.

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@profesterman

4 years

Only 11 cases and 2 deaths overnight. Brilliant. Reff down to 0.67, the lowest its been since 2 September. Well done Victoria - and a big thank you to the millions who have done the right thing. Forecast coming up.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Not brilliant news for Victoria, unfortunately. Another 2297 cases and tragically, another 11 deaths. The 5-day moving average has gone up to 1758, and the Reff is above 1 again at 1.02. Hopefully, this is just a bump on the road to the peak.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

I had my second AZ jab yesterday - no side effects at all, not even an aching arm. It feels great to be protected. To all my followers - please get vaccinated as soon as you can.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

More sense from Dan Andrews. "It isn't a flick the switch and you go from 100 per cent shut to 100 per cent open, it's a gradual thing but there is the issue of giving people notice and we've got to work through some of these issues," he said.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

1 year

There are over 300,000 published papers on covid, let alone thousands of preprints. If new evidence comes along, do I change my mind - absolutely. If this means contradicting a previous statement - so be it.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

If you think scrapping COVID isolation periods will get us back to work and past the pandemic, think again via @ConversationEDU Thank you Raina, Brendan and Nancy. Unfortunately, our politicians simply don't care.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

For the vulnerable (over 65 or with chronic conditions), with the removal of isolation requirements today it is even more important that we minimise risk. It is still safe to go out to shops, but please wear an N95/P2 mask. If going to restaurants, try to get an outside table

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

7 months

A bit late with reporting COVID stats this week. I have just got back from Melbourne where I was honoured with Life Membership of the Australasian Epidemiological Association.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

1 year

Australia had 107,362 cases (down 4,857) with the Reff down from 1.00 to 0.98. There were 3,495 people in hospital (up 93) and 113 in ICU (up 18). There were 242 deaths (up 10). We might at last have peaked. Wishing all of my followers a very happy and safe Xmas break.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Another 1405 cases for NSW today. The 5-day moving average has dropped again to 1305, and the Reff has dropped below 1 for the first time since the outbreak started. It is starting to look very peakish.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

In NSW, another 111 local cases reported. The 5-day moving average is 84.0, and the Reff 1.1, so numbers stable, but not going down. As expected, more restrictions: non-critical retail now closed from midnight, and construction halted. Why didn't they do this 2 weeks ago?

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Last week, Australia had 40,233 cases (up 6,620) with the Reff up from 1.06 to 1.11. There were 1,395 people in hospital (up 47) and 37 in ICU (down 11). There were 119 deaths (up 8). The next wave is definitely here.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Good Morning. Another zero day of no community cases in Victoria - now 4 days in a row. 5-day moving average down to 0.2, and Reff close to zero. 23,000 tests. All looks good.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

4 years

Think of epidemiologists as health professionals caring for populations, whereas doctors care for individuals. Our main concern is to protect the health of the population, and yes - we do realise that this may have a terrible economic impact. We also have families affected.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

A massive jump in cases numbers for NSW overnight. There were 11,201 cases and 3 deaths. And we still have NYE to go! The 7-day moving average is 6797and the Reff is 1.62, a 5.7 day doubling time. Hospitalisations have jumped from 557 to 625.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

10 months

We are still averaging over 100 COVID deaths a week, about 5 times the rate of deaths from motor vehicle accidents!

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

1534 local cases for Victoria with sadly 13 lives lost. The 5-day moving average is 1618, and the Reff is 0.86, its lowest value since the 5th August. It looks like Victoria is over the peak and going down. However, descent will probably be slowed because of opening up.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

This should be a national approach

3AW Melbourne

@3AW693

2 years

It will soon be mandatory to report positive RAT results to the Victorian Health Department, either online or by phone. RAT result reporting systems will be active "some stage tomorrow".

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Plans to lift restrictions in South Australia on December 28 have been put off until next year due to concerns about the Omicron strain of COVID-19. Thankfully, we have a sensible government.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

There had to be some good news today! Only 15 cases for the ACT, bringing their 5-day moving average to 18.6, and the Reff to 0.98. With the number of cases we are seeing in VIC and NSW, it is much too early to relax restrictions. They are taking a big risk.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

The number of community acquired cases in Adelaide has now jumped to 17, with 15 members of the same family affected. Unfortunately, 2 of the infected people work in aged care homes, This all has a certain deja vue.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

It's a sunny day in Adelaide with a top of 17. There were another 445 local cases for Victoria, with the 5-day moving average up to 417, but the Reff has dropped from 1.64 to 1.54. The projection for today was 569. The next 3-4 days will tell us whether things are slowing down.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

Mandatory testing to end along with forced COVID-19 isolation Why bother to even test? It's quite simple. If there are no tests, then there is no COVID. Just what the government wants.

Mandatory testing to end along with forced COVID-19 isolation

Victorians will no longer be required to report their coronavirus case if they record a positive result on a rapid antigen test, as a result of changes made by the Andrews government to pandemic laws.

www.theage.com.au

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

I have to agree with everything written here. Cost of rapid antigen tests shows Scott Morrison is out of touch via @newscomauHQ

Move shows PM is completely out of touch

OPINION

www.news.com.au

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

3 years

Booster shots are available for all adults from today. If you had your second dose six months ago, I strongly advise you to get a Pfizer booster shot now. This is especially important for people over 60, and those with health problems affecting their immune systems.

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Professor Adrian Esterman

@profesterman

2 years

With PCR tests being used less often, and people being asked to report positive RAT tests, the % of tests that are positive will become meaningless unless people are also asked to report negative tests like they do in the UK.

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