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Michael Noetel Profile
Michael Noetel

@mnoetel

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Dad, academic, researcher, effective altruist and ineffective athlete. Senior Lecturer @UQPsych // Chair @EA_Aus // Member @givingwhatwecan

Brisbane, Australia
Joined June 2013
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 months
Finally, proof that running from my problems isn't as bad as it sounds. This project was a massive lift 💪 by @TarenSanders @DanielG12754470 @PaulGTaylor_ACU @BorjadelPozoCr1 @lonsdale_c @stuart_biddle @JordanJsmith88 @jwjmahoney @Vasconcellos_Ro and the rest of the team 🙏
@EricTopol
Eric Topol
3 months
An effective treatment for depression from a systematic review of >200 unique RCTs: Exercise Benefit proportional to intensity of exercise prescribed @bmj_latest @mnoetel @UQPsych
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Michael Noetel
1 year
Can we run from #depression ? Yes, says our new analysis of 177 studies and 10,673 people. #Exercise seems as good as therapy and medication, especially for #Dance , #strength training, #running and #walking . Aim for >30mins per day. See our preprint:
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Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil First, I want to reiterate that I love people like you holding science to these standards of openness and transparency. As you can tell from our pre-registration, open data and code, we value the same thing. We want people re-analysing this question. Responses to your concerns 🧵
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Michael Noetel
4 years
Dear #Academia , we're better on YouTube. See our new systematic review: It's probably because we can edit and students can skip. If you want to make better #distancelearning videos during #COVID19 , this might be a good start #Video
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Michael Noetel
2 years
Teachers can learn to be more motivating but what behaviours matter most? @asghar_ahmadi1 got 30+ #SelfDeterminationTheory experts to agree on what behaviours help, what hurt, and why. Very useful for researchers and teachers who want to be more motivating
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Michael Noetel
3 years
Most of us use multimedia every day. Our new paper shows how to use to use it best. As you'll see in this 🧵you might do some things right, but there are lots of ways to get even better. Read the full paper or
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
5 years ago today I took the @givingwhatwecan pledge to donate 10% of my income to the world's most effective charities (via @GiveWell @EA_Aus ). I'm both proud and grateful that I've been able to do my bit for the world. It's been awesome: 1,826 days without a single regret.
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Michael Noetel
2 years
When I would try to talk to others about doing good—donating to charity, eating less meat, caring for the future—I have been guilty of using guilt. Our new meta-analysis says, overall, we should avoid the 'should's. Instead, show people they have choices aligned to their values.
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Michael Noetel
1 year
Schizophrenia is rare but very disabling. The @WHO list lots of treatments, but not exercise (yet). Our new meta-analysis of 28 studies in @Euro_Psychiatry shows #exercise can help treat schizophrenia (esp. negative symptoms) while also nurturing health
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 months
@adhderall @cremieuxrecueil Based on my reaction time, I think this might be a bad idea
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
4 years
I think we did the first prospectively registered, double-blind sport-psych intervention. Mindfulness improved golfers' swing but not their accuracy (our primary outcome), despite recruiting ~2.5x the projected sample size. Basically: a swing and a miss.
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Michael Noetel
6 months
Screen time is the #1 health concern parents have about their kids, according to some polls. But, how bad is it really? @TarenSanders , the team and I summarise findings from 1,937,501 participants in @Nature Human Behaviour Brief:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
"Future people count, there could be a lot of them, and we can make their lives better." @willmacaskill shows what could be doing for our great, great grandchildren. We can give them an amazing future, and we should try harder to get there. Read my book review @ConversationEDU
@ConversationEDU
The Conversation - Australia + New Zealand
2 years
"It’s hard to feel for future people." Our great grandchildren are powerless in today’s society, but what we do now can influence them, for better or worse, as @mnoetel ( @ACUmedia ) writes. What happens when we consider them while we make decisions today?
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Michael Noetel
3 years
Aussie kids are now ranked 140th out of 146 countries for physical activity. The government throws millions at the problem, but does it help those who need it most? Supporting teachers in primary schools looks much more cost-effective: via @ConversationEDU
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Michael Noetel
3 years
Most people I know want to make a difference in the world. If we want to help others, how do we help in ways that work? In this article for @ABCReligion & Ethics, I bust some EA-myths, & lay out how #EffectiveAltruism tries to help us all do good better
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil We have provided the code via the OSF to reproduce the other effect sizes. Your analysis doesn't reproduce the results because you haven't done a meta-analysis. Calculating the range of effects doesn't conduct an inverse-variance multi-level weighting of effects sizes.
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Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil You say ‘The included studies are under-powered’. Removing under-powered studies is not recommended for meta-analyses. We tested for publication bias in three ways and didn’t find it to be of concern: “statistically significant results would need to be reported 58 times more...”
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
Really honoured by this #AAUT . Thank so much to everyone who has supported my teaching over the last few years. Too many to name— @jwjmahoney @ProfDGreene @gjpepping @lonsdale_c @PhilParker_IPPE have all been critical—but good teaching's definitely a team effort.
@KiftSally
Sally Kift
3 years
Huge congrats to fabulous @uniaus #AAUT National ACT & NT Citation Winners!!! @ACUmedia - @mnoetel @ANUmedia - @gemma_s_king - @samkbennett - @SofiaSamperCarr @CDUni -Fabo #StudentSuccess Teams Outstanding contributions to student learning! @aauniteachers
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Michael Noetel
2 years
Looking to do a PhD? Interested in helping more people into #STEM ? @JiesiGuo is one of the most productive and capable ed. psych researchers I've met. He's offering a PhD scholarship valued at ~$100,000AUD over three years to work on his new DECRA:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil You say some effects are 'too big to be real.' As we say in the paper: “We preregistered informative priors...” These attenuate the influence of outliers on pooled effects. When our priors on Hedges’ g have a mean of 0 and sd of 1, then the influence of an outlier is attenuated
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Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil You talk about how we report change scores instead of post-test mean differences. Using change-scores is called an 'arm based' network meta-analysis. It's an orthodox way of assessing treatment effects, and allows for dose-response analyses in ways contrast-based methods can't.
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Michael Noetel
8 months
When older adults end up in hospital, why do we keep them in bed? It doesn't decrease risk: it makes many risks worse. It only takes 25 min of slow🚶to improve function. For best results,🎯 50 m/d of slow 🚶 or mix 20 min 💪🏻 + 20🚶Read more @BJSM_BMJ
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Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil Ultimately, we decided not standardise the change scores in the final version of the analyses. We deemed it added complexity and made effects less interpretable, and less comparable to existing studies. You even described it as 'odd'.
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Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil We've taken some time because we want to be right rather than be fast. We've requested an erratum for one problem: In an early draft of our analyses we had standardised change scores for different depression scales and had written the following sentence in the manuscript:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil You claim we made 'citation errors.' For example, we cited the corresponding author instead of ‘lookhead group’. Many studies had multiple publications. Sometimes we made a judgement about labelling a reference to reduce errors in analysis. Sorry if this made it hard to x-check
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
5 years
If we get our kids moving, it's likely to change their brain structure for the better. Exercise doesn't take away from learning time. It seems to build their brains to make learning easier. Check out our latest systematic review for the details:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
You're probably sick of me tweeting about this paper but it's now got a DOI, published in RER today. Really proud of the team getting it in here. Now, go back to making your videos before this next semester. I know it's harder, but know that it's better.
A new review of research found that replacing current teaching methods in college classes w/ pre-recorded videos leads to small learning improvements and that supplementing existing content w/ videos results in strong learning benefits. Read more: @mnoetel
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Michael Noetel
2 years
Effective altruism can teach people powerful skills to help them act on their prosocial values. But, looked at it this way, we as a community can teach a lot better. I applied all the best educational psych meta-analyses to how we can better teach in EA:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil “Using National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines,42 we standardised change scores for different depression scales (eg, [...]) using an internal reference standard for each scale (for each scale, the average of pooled standard deviations at baseline)...”
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
And they wonder why I like commas: "This book is dedicated to my parents, Ayn Rand and God." "Highlights of Peter Ustinov’s global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800-year-old demigod and a dildo collector." "We invited the strippers, JFK and Stalin"
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 months
New @ConversationEDU article: 80% of Australians say preventing catastrophic risks from advanced AI should be a top global priority, but is the government doing enough? A new representative survey of Aussies reveals a big gap between expectations & policy
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
4 years
How our students will feel when we stop giving our lectures via video... HT @TarenSanders Learn why video works in universities and colleges with this meta-analysis:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
This amazing video from @givingwhatwecan is the one of the best I've seen about humanity's future: why it's at risk today and what we can do to protect it. Concise, comprehensive, and compelling. Well done GWWC!
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Michael Noetel
2 years
Just finished What We Owe the Future. @WillMacaskill lays out such a compelling, reasoned case for us ensuring a good future, not only for our kids, but their kids, and the generation after that. We can and really should do more to protect them. Great read
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Michael Noetel
3 years
These comparisons are pretty surprising: the 'coal of food' isn't good branding for @BeefAustralia . I find it hard to sit with both caring about the planet 🌏 and enjoying beef 🍔 Next time we have 🥩, Mel, TJ and I might split it 3 ways
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
1 year
@cmarkn @zacseidler @TarenSanders @DanielG12754470 @PaulGTaylor_ACU @BorjadelPozoCr1 @jwjmahoney @ACU_HDR @stuart_biddle @lonsdale_c @JordanJsmith88 @Vasconcellos_Ro I can see how this is confusing, that's why we added the legend at the bottom. Because high depression scores are bad, bigger reductions in depression are good. Placebo is better than a waitlist, but it's not better than therapy or medication or exercise.
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Michael Noetel
2 months
@cremieuxrecueil The step was not pre-registered, and removing it did not lead to material changes in the findings so we presented the simpler, more orthodox methods from ref. 46 in the paper. Unfortunately, we neglected to remove the above sentence from the paper we submitted [hence the request]
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
Both the methods and findings from this meta-analysis are awesome. Not only did @DanielG12754470 and @jdelpozocruz reveal the surprising power of, say, resistance training for staving off dementia, he used sophisticated, interpretable models to say how much is enough.
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@BorjadelPozoCr1
Borja del Pozo Cruz
2 years
What is the optimal dose and exercise type to improve cognition in older adults? Find out in this novel dose-response meta-analysis led by raising star @DanielG12754470 ! @jdelpozocruz @mnoetel
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Michael Noetel
3 months
@cremieuxrecueil @DanielG12754470 @TarenSanders @PaulGTaylor_ACU @BorjadelPozoCr1 @lonsdale_c @stuart_biddle @JordanJsmith88 @jwjmahoney @Vasconcellos_Ro Thanks for chasing this up Crémieux. I'm a big fan of the work of people like you and Data Colada. I think we need more openness and transparency in science. Daniel's code was superseded prior to submission last year. The latest formula we used are here
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
4 years
It's easy to focus on bozos who do the wrong thing—idiots like these flaunting the rules. This is a problem, because it can normalise these behaviours. Almost everyone is doing the right thing—even young people—as our article in today's Conversation shows:
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
1 year
@VanceLocke @TarenSanders @DanielG12754470 @PaulGTaylor_ACU @BorjadelPozoCr1 @jwjmahoney @ACU_HDR @stuart_biddle @lonsdale_c @JordanJsmith88 @Vasconcellos_Ro I was not expecting dance to fare so well. There are likely a range of mechanisms that many of the modalities share (e.g., social interaction, music, relatively rapid indicators of increased competence) where Dance inherently contains all of them.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
1 year
If a Nature Human Behaviour paper was a Netflix comedy special by Christopher Nolan, it'd be this paper. Ironically, I can't think of any ways this paper could be better. @PsyArXiv Perfection.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
Just read @andykollmorgen 's report on where to donate money. Do overheads matter if the programs don't work? Homeopaths without borders is a thing... For what works, would it be worthwhile pointing people to @GiveWell / @LifeYouCanSave ? They're the @choiceaustralia for charities
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Michael Noetel
3 years
Think economic growth is going to just keep ticking along at 2% per year? There isn't enough matter in the universe for that to go on for much longer. All the views of our future are wild. A compelling summary of why we're in the most important century
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
Beautiful, powerful video about how the world changed in an instant. We wouldn't exist without the meteor that took out the dinosaurs. Their world was more fragile than they knew, and ours might be too.
@Kurz_Gesagt
Kurzgesagt
3 years
NEW VIDEO: The Day the Dinosaurs Died – Minute by Minute
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
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Michael Noetel
4 years
Wow @_MMathur , what an awesome meta-meta analysis: "The mere act of performing a meta‐analysis with a large number of studies ... may largely mitigate publication bias in meta‐analyses, suggesting optimism about the validity of meta‐analytic results."
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
4 years
@BJSM_BMJ Thanks @BJSM_BMJ your tweet was the cherry on top
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 months
@cremieuxrecueil @DanielG12754470 @TarenSanders @PaulGTaylor_ACU @BorjadelPozoCr1 @lonsdale_c @stuart_biddle @JordanJsmith88 @jwjmahoney @Vasconcellos_Ro Again happy to spend more time on this later, but on first glance there seem to be major problems in the way your code is synthesising effects (e.g., you look to be double-counting rows, meaning multiple measures from one study are treated as independent).
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
4/ Our brains struggle to connect dots that don't happen at the same time. Make it easier for us to connect what we hear to what we see by making the bullets come out as you speak to them
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
12/ I know you're gorgeous, but they don't need to see us the whole time. It can be distracting, taking their attention away from the images or text. Use a face occasionally so they connect with you, and if you want to point to something, but otherwise use images or slides
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
This great article by @OurWorldInData exemplifies the old quote: "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
13/ That's it: every finding about designing multimedia that's supported by a meta-analysis. There is other stuff that might work (e.g., using conversations or misconceptions) but starting with those 10 or so points will be the most reliable for your presentations
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Michael Noetel
3 years
12/ Break your lectures up with discussions, your videos into smaller chunks, or add breaks for multiple choice questions. There's no 'right size' chunk (e.g., 10 minutes); choose something small but meaningful.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
4 years
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
@ecrisp Thanks @ecrisp and @EDUCAUSEreview for trying to help pull videos out of the naughty corner. Excellent article, and love the framing of balancing authenticity and effectiveness. You might have seen this new paper about how to make it more effective:
@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
Most of us use multimedia every day. Our new paper shows how to use to use it best. As you'll see in this 🧵you might do some things right, but there are lots of ways to get even better. Read the full paper or
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Michael Noetel
3 years
9/ We're often trying to explain how things are done or how they work together, so show the audience, rather than making them imagine how it works. Grab a gif or YouTube video for what you're trying to explain. Videos are great
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
11/ Yes, we're trying to teach people the jargon: the language needed to understand key concepts. But, don't start with that language. Start by explaining the concept in simple words that connect to what the learner already knows.
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Michael Noetel
4 years
@DanielGucciardi @lonsdale_c @Jciarrochi @jamesconigrave Yeah, very possible Gooch! We looked at what happens if you drop the third time point (so basically ignore the crossover and treat it as between groups) but no results changed. Maybe the Greg Norman docco (control) was so mindless it washed out the effects...
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Michael Noetel
3 years
6/ If you can't make things come out one bit at a time, at least show the audience where to look using arrows, colours, your voice, animations, or a laser pointer
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Michael Noetel
2 years
I totally buy that PDFs are horrid, but even the ArXivs save/share PDFs. What are some good alternatives? Blog post? Forum post? Can they have DOIs? @lonsdale_c @TarenSanders @PhilParker_IPPE
@Tom_Westgarth15
Tom Westgarth (is on sabbatical)
2 years
@wonkwatch Totally agree. This also reminds me of an @80000Hours interview between @robertwiblin and @MaxCRoser , where they talked about how pdfs are awful for reach. They are terrible for SEO, they don’t have a share with thumbnail function, can’t be updated etc
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Michael Noetel
3 years
10/ Sure, we're teaching abstract concepts, sometimes, but try to make it more real and human. Give things faces, needs, or goals. Don't talk abstractly about a virus replicating, say it wants to attack a host cell.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
10 years
Hey SYD #exsc296 , the method section for your report is now on LEO FYI. Hope your weekend fills you with vigor ;)
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
I never thought watching my nails grow would give me such awe for science: "Today, each transistor in a state-of-the-art chip measures only 5 nanometers (nm) — the length a human fingernail grows in five seconds." From
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
@CC_Walton @jmacshine What was your question again? I only remember the gif 😉
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
5/ Our brains need to work to connect things in space too, so if you've got labels, put them on the image itself, rather than in a legend all the way over there (applies to plots in scientific papers too)
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
Big milestone for @EvidenceAction , delivering over 1 billion treatments. What's the treatment? School-based deworming, which MIT lists as one of the 'best buys' for improving both education and global health: Want to help? Go to
@EA_Aus
EA Australia
3 years
The deworm the world program by @EvidenceAction , one of our larger partner charities have made leaps and bounds since 2014, with over a billion treatments delivered!😆 This is an amazing feat and an example of the impact that donating effectively can achieve. 📢
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Michael Noetel
2 years
@robertwiblin The longitudinal effects of games on most outcomes are incredibly small, see I have more trust in meta-analyses like this one, which say generally suggest games lead to a tiny positive *increase* in depression
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
4 years
@TBMcGuckian Want more choices? All the interventions on givewell are the most cost effective according to RCTs but there's a wider range of really effective organisations that do great work here The book is great and free too.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
7/ Memes are fun, but *because* they're fun, we remember the memes, and not what you were trying to say. Make all stories, images, and text relate to the core thing you want people to learn.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
10 years
Pakistan Offers up to 250% Bonuses to Players? This is great news for Australia, isn't it, @CricketAus ? http://t.co/suDrtq0XcJ
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
11 years
@jdelmarmol thanks for the question mate. Yes, #exsc296 lp1 media articles need to be from week 1.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
10 years
Seth's take on a growth mindset, a good read: Is better possible? http://t.co/g2VxPC07kV
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
@rusyans Thanks @rusyans ! Congrats on being the 5th person to ever read it 😅
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
11 years
Hi @hesmith13 , for #exsc296 LP3 you don't need to include any sheets because we put all the questions on ppt slides instead of printing 200.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
3/ And if there are no meaningful images that make sense, then just add some key words to the slides, so the audience can catch-up if their attention wanders for a moment
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Michael Noetel
10 years
@AHPRA thank you for chasing that up. Appreciate knowing the application was received.
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Michael Noetel
10 years
Hello again #exsc296 . Tutorials with me today are in TS03 not SDA04. See you soon!
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
10 years
Some great research from Dan Ariely: even the top 20 NBA athletes don't perform BETTER under pressure. http://t.co/xosj73VrSn
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Michael Noetel
2 years
@TBMcGuckian @BeefAustralia This came out today, and looks to control for the energy/nutrient density of the food: Still doesn't make stake look any good 😬
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Michael Noetel
3 years
The haters hated the reproducibility project ("err you didn't do it right") so Many Labs 5 got peer review first. New, peer reviewed replications supported the existing replications; original studies still show massively inflated effects. Amazing work all @_MMathur @BrianNosek
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Michael Noetel
5 years
Looks like you were right, @kayla_itsines @emilyskyefit @tammyhembrow8 , vigorous exercise is safe all the way through pregnancy. Here's some new top level research done here in Australia
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Michael Noetel
4 years
When the air quality is hazardous, would you want your kids to stay physically active? Our new paper found exercise hardly changed despite really hazardous air during the #bushfires last year. Not sure how I should feel about that... @BorjadelPozoCr1
No, don't run in smog
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
"They are no longer being asked to sacrifice for the future, but to enhance their own sense of meaning and purpose in their present." Sounds pretty good to me.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
@jmacshine @CC_Walton This has been the hardest one for me to stomach, too
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
2/ Our brains have systems for both hearing and seeing. Try to use the 'seeing' system for meaningful images, and the 'hearing' system for your voice
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
1 year
@VanceLocke @PaulTKidman @TarenSanders @DanielG12754470 @PaulGTaylor_ACU @BorjadelPozoCr1 @jwjmahoney @ACU_HDR @stuart_biddle @lonsdale_c @JordanJsmith88 @Vasconcellos_Ro Yes agreed, it's clear limitation we emphasised in the discussion; it's also why the confidence intervals are so wide, but we did some tests for publication bias in the manuscript that didn't suggest that bias was the likely culprit.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
3 years
8/ Don't be boring, but don't overwhelm us. Use a bit of colour to make things look nice, and use it meaningfully so we know where to focus.
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@mnoetel
Michael Noetel
2 years
May be of interest to you @effective_ideas
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