Meb Faber @MebFaber Twitter profile

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Meb Faber

5 days

Have we ever seen a fund manager, who has been around for multiple decades, post back-to-back 40% return months? #trendfollowing

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 months

Bill Clinton, who was president over 20 years ago, is younger than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Let that sink in.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Change "Silicon Valley Bank" to "Kansas Farmers Bank". Replace "tech startups" with "farmers". Replace "MBS" with "farm loans". Do you feel different? If you were calling for "let them fail" are you now screaming "save them?!" Or vice versa. Would any of the tech elite…

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

For the first time in history, the stock market will finish the year with positive performance every single month.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

If I told you 12 months ago that: Unemployment jumps from 4% to 15% Fed interest rates fall from 2.5% to 0% PMI dives from 52 to 37 Gold rips up 32% Stock volatility triples Oil crashes down 70% ....and yet, over the past year, stocks are flat. Would you have believed me?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Over the past 70 years the US stock market has been a darling, outperforming foreign stocks by 1% per year. $10k invested in US stocks in 1950 turned into $14 million vs. only $8m in foreign stocks. Want to know how much of that outperformance has come since 2009? All of it.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Lots of stock markets can have terrible multi decade returns....

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

7 months

If stocks were down over 50% everyone would be losing their mind. But long bonds are down over 50% and everyone is super chill. Why do you think that is?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

9 months

. @MohnishPabrai joins the podcast today! He answers: - What's Buffett's online Bridge username? - Would he sell Apple if he was Buffett? - What tech stocks does @BillGates like today? 🎙️ Show Notes: 🎙️ YouTube:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

The lesson here is not "Wall Street is manipulating the system" The lesson here is you need a better broker. Preferably one that doesn't sell your order flow and shut down your trading and keep your short rebates and keep your cash interest. But hey, free trades.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

11 months

Investing quote of the day via @jasonzweigwsj :

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

9 months

Cambria ETF holders...please don't forget to vote your proxy! You can call 888-490-5095 and place your vote. You should have already received a proxy packet in the mail, but more info in the filing here: Thanks!

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day via @LynAldenContact :

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

People think top CEOs make great money, and they do... People think top celebrities make great money too, and they do... Hedge fund managers....hold my beer. via @Brian_Livin

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Every single one of the top tech investors in our industry missed a bigger fraud than Enron. Did they a) do no due diligence whatsoever, or b) do deep due diligence, but miss all the red flags?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

7 months

So I ran the numbers over the weekend... Over the past 30 years do you know how many mutual funds have returned 13% per year? ZERO Over the past 30 years do you know how many mutual funds have returned 12% per year? FIVE (not 5%, 5 total) via @MorningstarInc

Ramit Sethi

@ramit

8 months

Dave Ramsey: "It's not really hard to beat the S&P 500" Please reply with one word describing your reaction

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

Robinhood isn't the good guy in this story, they're the Sheriff of Nottingham. They sell customer order flow to shops like Citadel (who also invested in Melvin). The only people guaranteed to make big money here are the HFTs and brokers.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

My top 5 Global Stock Valuation resources (including downloadable CAPE ratios): 1. 2. @CAPE_invest 3. @RA_Insights 4. @Barclays 5. @RobertJShiller

Asset Allocation Interactive

Expected returns and volatilities for 140+ assets over 40 countries

interactive.researchaffiliates.com

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

I'll share my experience with the vaccineinjured as I would've loved someone to talk to when I was dealing with it.Feel free to DM me. I got absolutely wrecked for about 6 months. I'm not anti vax - I also know healthy young people that died from COVID too. It's heartbreaking.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

For the investment professionals out there. What belief do you hold that the vast majority of your peers (75%+) do not share? Here's a few of mine in no particular order....apologies for offending everyone in advance!

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

28 days

Here's a crazy stat that no one will believe. The universal investment benchmark is the 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. What if you replaced the bonds entirely with gold....crazy right? Turns out it makes no real difference.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

Honestly, I think frequent flyer miles are better cryptocurrencies than most cryptocurrencies. 1. Less volatile 2. More liquid and easier to transfer 3. Less likely to get hacked 4. Can actually transact for something useful like flying around the world

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Stock markets historically hate inflation. In normal times (0-4% inflation) the average 10-year PE ratio is ~20. > 4% inflation it's 13. > 7% inflation it's 10. We're at 40. Outside of 2021/2022, the HIGHEST valuation EVER awarded US market above 5% inflation? 23

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Every single 2019 investment outlook: Returns stunk in 18 Economy in 9th inning The Fed Recession on horizon US stocks expensive Value vs growth Volatility is increasing Too much debt Credit spreads are low Something about China's economy Emerging markets cheap #SavedYouAClick

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

7 months

Has anyone gone from universally respected to Michael Lewis this fast before?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Why my 401k just auto invests entirely in emerging market stocks for the long haul: 85% of global population, 50% of GDP, but only 15% of stock market cap Higher EPS Growth Better demographics Higher dividend yields Higher real yields Much cheaper stock valuations

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 months

If you’re like most investors, you’re asking the wrong questions. I was chatting with a group of advisors awhile back down in La Jolla and a question arose. I’ll paraphrase: "Meb, thanks for the talk. We get a steady stream of salespeople and consultants in here hawking their…

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

Hope: Crypto is going to disrupt Wall Street Reality: Here's a 2% fee index fund.

Coinbase 🛡️

@coinbase

6 years

Announcing: Coinbase Index Fund is open for investment.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

1/ Here we go....The Top Investment Podcasts of 2018! Seriously you should listen to these, it's like getting a Masters in Investing...unreal that these are all free...what a time to be alive! Congrats to all...I've listened to every one!

Top Investment Podcasts of 2018 - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

If you’re looking to escape the family over the holidays…good news! I asked my podcast buds for their top downloaded podcasts of 2018…you can find the list below… Here is 2017, 2016, and 2015. Here...

mebfaber.com

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

10 days

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 months

"Short sellers love taking down American companies to pay for their coke" - Palantir CEO Lol have you ever met a short seller? Most pretty nerdy accounting types. Short sellers are a national treasure and the immune system of financial markets. Corporate fraud exists…

BuccoCapital Bloke

@buccocapital

2 months

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, ranting on CNBC about short-sellers destroying American businesses so they can fund their cocaine habits

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

Still one of my favorites: "Investing is the only business where when things go on sale, everyone runs out of the store..." (I attribute to @MarkYusko )

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Summary of asset class returns in 2018: US Large Cap: Down US Small Cap: Down Foreign Developed: Down Foreign Emerging: Down US Gov Bonds: Down Foreign Gov Bonds: Down REITs: Down Int REITs: Down Commodities: Down Bitcoin: LOL Gold: Down

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

1/ PART 1 of 4 Let's talk about investing expectations. Investors typically expect 10% returns on their portfolio. Most pension fund expect around 8%. ** Millennials expect 11.7% per year. And 20% of you expect 20%+ returns.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

US market stats... 5% of global population 15% of global public companies 25% of global GDP 40% of global market cap 60% of global market cap (free float) 80% average US investor allocation 98% of global stock markets cheaper

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

For those that didn't experience it, today is what the internet bubble aftermath stock action feels like. Now, extend today but for two more years and you have an idea of what *can* happen.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

Examining how the typical Family Offices (average wealth $1.2 billion) allocates their assets it's immediately clear nothing has changed in 2,000 years. It's basically the Talmud portfolio (33% each stocks, bonds, real assets) which is really hard to beat by the way...

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

We did it y'all!!! Stocks as a % of household financial assets, aka the @Jesse_Livermore , hits an all-time high... via @NDR_Research

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

19 days

I still think it's insane @Fidelity is going to start charging people $100 to buy ETFs. Here is the feedback I'm passing along to Abby and the crew: Agreement: Fidelity will start charging up to 15% of all ETF revenue to issuers. Otherwise, retail investors pay $100 per trade…

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

Lol $70M fine. Rounding error for them. Add a zero. If you broker is: Pumping shitcoins Opting you into margin Encouraging options trading Keeping all of your short lending and order flow revenue Firing confetti cannons You need a new broker

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

1/ Here are my 6 favorite research pieces of 2019 making the case for global investing... First up, @CreditSuisse with their "Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2019" This is the yearly update to my favorite investing book, Triumph of the Optimists

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

This is puzzling to me. 85% of y'all said you'd sell your house if someone offered to buy it for 2x, but only 55% said they'd sell their stocks. Why is there a culture of "own at any price" with stocks but with no other assets?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

Going to be fun to watch people lose their minds when instead of buying other companies all Buffett does with his cash pile is buyback Berkshire stock....

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Investing quote of the day via @hkuppy :

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 months

So @CalPERS is paying $300k to find their next CIO and is looking for the following attributes "cultural competence" "ability to effectively listen" "the ability to read the room; present in a way that doesn’t cause a furore* or that is insensitive to CalPERS diverse culture"…

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 months

What is your favorite Charlie Munger quote? So hard to choose but mine is likely: “Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome.”

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 months

It may only be for one day, but today is that day, and so we celebrate our first fund crossing a billion in assets. Shout out to the team and 150k+ shareholders that helped along the way....much love. The next time someone asks me if they should start an investment firm, I'll…

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

This is what happens when you hire and pay McKinsey $1mm to find a new name...

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

4 years

Effective immediately, Washington will call itself the “Washington Football Team”, pending adoption of a new name, sources tell ESPN. This is not a final renaming and rebranding for team; this is the name it wants to use until pending adoption of a new name in the future.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

Happy 4th everyone... Thinking about (financial) freedom, if you want to achieve true wealth: Own the Business: Be an equity owner instead of an employee Be the Bank: Earn interest instead of paying it Hold the Keys: Be the landlord instead of the tenant

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Imagine you put all your money into one stock market and wake up one day, and poof, half is gone. That happened today. Yet most people around the world still put most of their $ into just one country (their own). Home country bias is a life wrecker. Diversify people.

jeroen blokland

@jsblokland

5 years

This is a historical day for markets! #Argentina ’s stock market plunged a whopping 48% in #USD today, marking ‘the second-biggest one-day rout on any of the 94 stock exchanges tracked by Bloomberg going back to 1950.’ Also painfully, it already held that position before today.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

This LME nickel story is some real bullshit. The only way it ends is they reopen and nickel immediately goes to $150k, right?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

We have one of the great short sellers in history on the podcast next week. Has literally exposed dozens of frauds and scams that were predatory at lost people so much $$$$... I love Elon/Tesla but this is totally backwards...not all shorts are bad, not all longs are good...

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

6 years

What they do should be illegal

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

1/ Jay-Z was able to build a brand and massive following from his music, but it didn't make him a billionaire. You want to get really rich? Own a business Be the bank Hold the keys (stocks, bonds, real estate)

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

11 months

There have only been four times in history that US stocks have a rolling 10-year Sharpe ratio > 1. Roaring Twenties Nifty Fifties Internet Bubble *Late 2010s/Early 2020s/COVID/meme stonk/shitoin era

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Was chatting with a hedge fund manager recently and he said lots of fellow performing smaller hedge funds are getting redeemed....which was curious to me. When I asked why he said the institutions wanted to add to their positions in... Tiger Global.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

In 2010, five US stock fund managers were nominated for fund manager of the decade. Know how many outperformed this decade? Zero. Average underperformance of the five nominees was 5 percentage points per year. And the winner? 8 percentage points underperformance per year.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

There are some statements, that show such a fundamental misunderstanding of how something works, that should disqualify the author from commenting. This is one.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

I wish a state (Wyoming & Montana I'm looking at you) or a wealthy entrepreneur would try the Freedom Dividend experiment. $5,000 to each baby born in the state. Invests in the global stock markets. Grows to millions in retirement. Cost: about 0.5% of annual state budget.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

TL;DR every 2020 investment outlook: Every asset went up First decade no recession Something about The Fed Inverted yield curve Negative yielding bonds US stocks expensive Value cheap vs growth EU and EEM cheap vs. US Something about "uncertain markets" #SavedYouAClick

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

this tweet was never about "techies" or "farmers", it was about bias. which, the replies demonstrated in real-time quite clearly. To all my tech friends dunking on the farmers, here's some farm episodes to learn: To all my …

Venture Capital & Angel Investing

www.youtube.com

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

"We lost all our money, but damn that was a crazy fun time, wasn't it?!" Is something you're going to hear someone say this year.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

In honor of Bogle passing, what he’d probably really love is if everyone opened their brokerage statement, identified all the crappy high fee tax-inefficient funds, sold them, and bought something cheaper...then forget about it for a decade.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

Only 16% of high school students are required to take a personal finance class. At low income high schools that number drops to 5%. But sure, lets give a 17-year old the decision to take on $200k of college debt. Makes sense. @VisualCap via @ndunivant

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

1/ I've been very vocal the last few years about the importance of global investment diversification, yet most Americans continue to allocate 80% to US stocks. Let me explain, with some help from @bridgewater , why that is a horrible, and easily avoidable mistake.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

8 months

Happy Birthday to @WarrenBuffett , holder of the most unbelievable investment stat in the world. Berkshire stock could decline 99% and still be outperforming the S&P 500 since inception. If it sounds unbelievable, go look it up (I had to). via @ChrisBloomstran

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

US stock market valuations (CAPE ratio) now stands at 37. The last time a major index got this high was the darling of every allocator in 2007 - emerging markets. What happened next? 0% returns for a decade.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

As my southern grandmother would have said, "What in tarnation?!" Below is a list of my favorite charts demonstrating the US stock market is bubbly, bubbly, bubbly... You may not agree, but it should give you pause...and at least reflect! Any I missed?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Five worst years for US stocks and bonds 60/40 last 100 years: 1931: -31% 1937: -22% 2008: -17% 1974: -15% 2022: -13%* *YTD

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

1/ There are a lot of investment sayings that get repeated by individual & professional investors alike. One I hear parroted over and over again is a variation of “high stock valuations are fine since interest rates are low”. But did you ever stop and ask, “Is that true”?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Nobody Wants to Invest in Your Shit

Nobody Wants to Invest in Your Shit - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

Nobody Wants to Read Your Shit… No, this is not an email I received from an angry reader (though I have received many similar ones over the years). It’s actually the title of a fun book on the topic...

mebfaber.com

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

For my friends frustrated with their career or plagued by imposter syndrome... Here’s Jim Simons at 41, struggling with markets before becoming the top performing fund manager ever: “Sometimes I look at this and feel I’m just some guy who doesn’t really know what he’s doing.”

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Whatever you do, remember to use a market order...

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

2 years

Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock. Do you support this?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

In good news, US stocks are getting closer to fair value...ended the year at CAPE ratio of 32. Now 24. Fair value of 21 to 17 means down 10 to 30% from here. If you sail through to 2009 low, thats still down 50%. Foreign cheap, emerging really cheap. And getting cheaper!

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

Have any of you guys actually *seen* hedge fund and short seller returns the past 10 years? If they're manipulating the system wow do they ever stink at it!!!

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

For 95% of returns, the IRS could just calculate your taxes and send you a prefilled return. If you agree, sign, pay if you need to, and send back in. If disagree, file your own. What a gigantic waste of time & resources to ask people to go through this brain damage & anxiety

Sheel Mohnot

@pitdesi

2 years

87k new IRS agents scare me bc I am sure that I'm doing my taxes wrong, not bc I'm trying to cheat the system. Just tell me what I owe in taxes! Do what many other countries do; don't waste my time and hire people to enforce something that is unnecessary. Even Don doesn't know:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

"Reverting to 3% inflation, which we view as the upper bound for benign sustained inflation, is easy from 4%, hard from 6%, and very hard from 8% or more. Above 8%, reverting to 3% usually takes 6 to 20 years, with a median of over 10 years."

History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation? | Research Affiliates

Across 14 developed-economy countries over the last half-century, we analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of...

www.researchaffiliates.com

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 months

Emerging markets: 85% of global population 60% of global GDP ... 10% of global stock market capitalization ... and rounds to 0% of most US investor portfolios

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

3 years

Fun investing stat of the day... Russian stocks been outperforming US over the past 5 years....and yet 10-year PE ratios... Russia: 8 US: 38

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

4. A basic low cost global market portfolio of ETFs will outperform the vast majority of institutions over time.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

4 years

Are you prepared for: 1. A return to all-time highs in the stock market? or 2. A decline of 50% in the stock market from here? You, and your portfolio, need to be prepared for either outcome as possible...(and if we've learned anything from 2020, both could happen!)

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 years

Can't take it anymore...so I just hired someone internally to listen to and rank all of the investment podcasts each week. Will start sending out the summary every week to The Idea Farm list...will report back on the experiment...

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

1/ Lesson for @robinhoodapp investors & commentators. The only treasuries that yield 3% are the 20 to 30 year. These investments have had drawdowns of 15-25% in the past. They've declined 5-15% in a single month! They are not risk free investments as that yield comes at a cost

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

7 years

US stocks outperformed bonds by 2.2% a year over the last 40. How much outperformance has come since 2009? All of it.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

1. Investing based on dividend yield alone is a tax-inefficient and nonsensical investment strategy.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

Politicians: if you really wanted to make a difference, instead of chasing this stock buyback boogeyman, maybe legislate something useful? Teach personal finance and investing in high school.

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Y'all. ARK expects innovation companies to go from total market cap of "roughly $14 trillion today to more than $200 trillion in 2030." The ENTIRE global stock market today is $109 trillion (their stat).

The Equity Market Cap Associated with Innovation Will Grow Exponentially

The market cap of innovative companies will likely scale exponentially during the next five to ten years, as should ARK Invest's capacity.

ark-invest.com

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

7 months

The biggest bond crash ever? Below are the long bond historical drawdowns for the past 100 years. Nominal biggest ever...real getting close...

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day:

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

5 years

As the decade nears its end, always a good time to reflect. When you sit down with your broker or advisor, here’s a few questions to ask: 1. Do we own funds that cost > 1%? If so, why? 2. Do we pay trading commissions? If so, why? 3. Do we earn 2% on our cash? If not, why not?

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

Investing quote of the day @elonmusk :

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Meb Faber

@MebFaber

1 year

"How do you invest?" Always funny to hear people respond: "I'm boring, I invest in the S&P 500" If by boring you mean stocks actively selected by a committee, huge home country bias, no real assets, no bonds, no tether to valuation, no trend. Boring is not the word I would use

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