Lowy Institute, Sydney, via Taipei, Tokyo, HK, S'hai, Beijing, London, DC. Author of The Party on CCP; Asia's Reckoning, on China v Japan + XJP: The Backlash.
China is about to wipe out, with the stroke of a pen, Australia's biggest export markets for wine, lobster and a few other commodities, against WTO rules and a bi-lateral FTA. Seems like it should be a bigger deal, and not just in Australia....
"Way before Nato existed, Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had suspicion of foreigners and the West. This is a Russia that we know, and it’s not a Russia that arrived yesterday."
"China wants to have its cake and eat it. Privately they remain aligned with Russia, but publicly they don’t want to be tainted because of guilt by association.” Why Beijing is squirming over Ukraine:
“Fifteen years ago, if I talked to Western colleagues about the negative aspects of China, I was treated as a right-wing, China-hating, Japanese scholar. Now, people listen to us.”
Put simply: The US threw out fake journalists whose work makes no difference; and China got to throw out real journalists whose work was invaluable. Who thinks this was a good trade, besides the MSS in China and a few ardent hawks in the US?
Trump officials’ move to constrain Chinese state-run media in US backfired, says
@benyt
. It gave China the pretext to expel almost all journalists for NYT, WSJ and Wash Post. The world relied on their great reporting for China news, including on the virus.
Amazing, and potentially big implications for everyone from Tim Cook to Terry Gou (still contemplating a career in Taiwan politics) to anyone waiting on their new iPhone, Apple shareholders, the party secretaries of Zhengzhou and Henan, and on and on.....
"One would think the Chinese leadership, which has made a fetish of their 'century of humiliation,' would be wary of deliberately fostering the same resentments in a country that will one day be a formidable competitor."
#HongKong
protesters got in the way of a foreign tourist in
#HK
airport after all departures were canceled due to sit-in protests. The tourist fought back: "Hong Kong is a part of China!" "Go get a job!" #香港
The most interesting thing about this story is that News Ltd is reported on as if it is a fully-fledged political player - changing policies while confidentially briefing affected parties and negotiating with dissenters in its ranks.
With the recent COVID-19 resurgence in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, I guess that makes Australia and NZ the most Confucian countries outside of China in the region?
China has ample domestic reasons to act on climate change - water, technology, environment etc.... - and don't need any trade offs as an incentive. False bargain.
How to stop a Chinese bank run: "One by one, cadres and executives stood before a microphone to pledge their backing for the bank, as smiling employees brandished wads of cash before cameras."
This tweet storm from Beijing's Ambassador to France adds a new angle to the civilisational struggle over the
#coronavirusaus
- it's Asian countries that have outperformed the democratic West, with China best of all.
Les pays asiatiques, dont la Chine, ont été particulièrement performants dans leur lutte contre le Covid-19 parce qu’ils ont ce sens de la collectivité et du civisme qui fait défaut aux démocraties occidentales. 8/15
So the PM tells a single journalist the country will remain "closed" well into next year? A momentous announcement and there seems to be a collective shrug of the shoulders. Shouldn't that be the spark for emergency policies to find safe ways to re-open?
Few leaders make a genuine difference, but Abe did, as the father of the QUAD, the Indo-Pacific and a new national security and bureaucratic culture in Japan. History was his black spot, with Beijing and Seoul. They will think long and hard about who to send to his funeral
#Abe
Behold, the breathtaking Bailong Elevator in Zhangjiajie, China, which is recognized by the Guinness World Records as the tallest, fastest, and largest-load outdoor elevator in the world.
"Only 7.2% of Japanese companies in China either planned or considered shifting production out of China, down from an already paltry 9.2% in 2019." Good reminder of the challenges of de-coupling:
"A joke in South Africa these days asks what the difference is between the Titanic and South Africa. Answer: At least the Titanic’s lights were on as it sank." Very good, and depressing, article, on SA's unravelling:
台灣block騰訊百度以防止干預定2020選舉
Taiwan to block Tencent and Baidu streaming sites on security risk
Taipei fears Beijing ramping up 'cultural infiltration' ahead of 2020 election
"The more pressure Japan had (in the 30s), the more adamant, arrogant and self-assertive we became, because we were too nationalistic and too undemocratic, and that was our destiny. China is following the same path.”
Plain-clothes police setting upon protesters outside a Henan bank. Watch as they come in waves. All highly trained. A good glimpse into the vast and often hidden security apparatus on hand when the system requires them.
If this happens, it will be written up as "China bails out Russia" whereas it would really be Beijing opportunistically pouncing on hugely underpriced resources.
France refuses to sign onto
#BRI
and inks EU40bn in China deals; Italy signs onto
#BRI
and gets contracts for a fraction of that. Even with the Airbus inflation, noteworthy:
A good summary of Europe's growing disillusionment with China. “In the Denmark where I grew up, we were taught that if you invite a guest to dinner and they do not invite you back, you stop inviting them."
Henry Kissinger in
@wsj
today on Trump’s “solid job” on the
#Coronavirus
. So telling that a man of his statue still won’t speak truth to power for fear of losing access to the White House.
PM Abe: I heartily welcome Prime Minister
@narendramodi
of India as he visits 🇯🇵. I lost no time taking him to the lakeside at Lake Yamanaka, where the autumn leaves are in their glory. After this, I will invite him to my summer house, where only the two of us will dine together.
“Thank you, Teacher Fang Fang, for withstanding the tempest of smears and abuse." A writer in Wuhan and her struggle to document to the city's lockdown:
“He wastes so much time with these illusions, these deliriums, these conspiracies, these fantasies, these scuffles." If you think your country's leaders are mishandling
#COVID
ー19 you can at least be thankful you are not in Brazil:
Japan offers its companies money to move out of China, but its big corporates say - no thanks. A reminder of the difficulties of de-coupling from the world's fastest growing consumer market:
"We have to forget the idea that China’s policy is still tailored to growth. In his speech, Xi mentioned Marx 15 times. The word 'market' appeared only 3 times." Joerg Wuttke, the EU's China business veteran, keeps getting gloomier:
Beijing has been diluting opposition to an inquiry over the last week and it's clear from the list of countries that they didn't lobby hard against this motion. In other words, their focus is on managing this probe and any conclusions. We're just at the starting line.....
Here are the countries currently backing the EU motion. A fascinating coalition including Russia, South Korea, Indonesia, India, Japan, the UK, Turkey. Does *not* include either China or the US for now. I'm told US has been pushing for stronger language but's still likely to join
“History researchers shouldn’t be cold-eyed observers of times and trends. They must stand atop the commanding heights of our times and guide governance and nurture people.” Terrific
@wsj
article on a CCP core project, the re-writing of history:
"As China rises, instead of embracing a superpower mindset and growing a thicker skin, it is becoming increasingly sensitive to perceived slights, all while it fosters a thin-skinned, resentful nationalism among its people."
Sources say that China is considering suing Adrian Zenz and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) who have long published and disseminated disinformation about China for libel.
I am not sure that many people realised that the new Chinese Ambassador's offer to "meet Australia halfway" meant we would see them in the Solomons Islands.
Former PM Kevin Rudd says China’s security deal with Solomon Islands was a ‘politically illiterate’ move if Beijing is sincere about improving relations with Australia.
"The most consequential poll in 2020 might not come at the end of the year, when Trump seeks a second term, but much earlier and closer to home, in Taiwan this weekend." A
@LowyInstitute
paper with
@natashaskassam
Nasty and disproportionate, and Beijing believes it is strong enough to get away with it. A disaster, because China is under reported (unlike the US, which is over reported.) Finally, US should have never picked this fight. China will always win a race to the bottom on the media.
"The conclusion Beijing has drawn is the only one possible in an authoritarian system: when the moment is right, they must act ruthlessly to punish Hong Kong." Depressingly true but it will only increase resistance to CCP around the world
@JamilAnderlini
Samsung was early to the derisking/decoupling game. Getting out of China has made it and other SK companies among the largest investors in Vietnam, India and Indonesia:
"In Wuhan, the system failed, monumentally." ICYMI, an excellent, detailed account of what went wrong after the first cases of
#coronavirus
were detected:
Absolutely +1. The BBC seems caught in perennial culture wars at home. Abroad, especially in countries without a free press, the World Service is indispensable, a byword for reliability and fairness, and a great asset for the UK itself.
The BBC World Service, radio and TV, is the best ambassador Britain could ever have. I have spent a lifetime travelling, relying on it myself, and meeting people who see it as a consistent source of high quality news and information.
The fetishisation of the 'Five Eyes' as a kind of all-purpose Anglospheric policy vehicle was always going to reach its limits, and no surprise that it is NZ that is tapping on the brakes 1/
As far as
#notwastingacrisis
goes, in recent weeks, Beijing has upped war games around Taiwan, engineered mass arrests in HK and thrown a bunch of US journalists. Not bad going...
#coronavirus
Former Australian PM Tony Abbott: "The answer to almost every question about China is India. Although currently not as rich as China, as a democracy under the rule of law…India is perfectly placed to substitute for China in global supply chains."
We are a long way from some kind of 'League of Democracies" jointly sharing the pain of Chinese coercion. Right now, the sanctions against Australia are simply an opportunity for someone else.
At least 60 countries count China as their number-one trading partner and they're all keen to fill the void left by the trade bans on Australia |
@ErykBagshaw
The Australian ship was "close to Chinese waters" (not in), so the PLAN was entitled to use sonar to "detect their real intention." But we should be friends anyway. What a mess of an article. (And fixing previous tweet.).
#Opinion
: The Australian Navy should anticipate that when they send any ship close to Chinese waters, the Chinese naval ships will use sonar to try to detect the real intentions of the other side. Staying out of Chinese waters will make Australian sailors much safer. We need to…
Good to see the world holding China's feet to the fire over Ukraine but IMHO, the idea propagated by some - that Xi could "pick up the phone" and talk Putin out of the invasion - doesn't hold water
#UkraineChina
So-called "wet markets" are common throughout Asia, not just China, and "most are not virus petri-dishes filled with exotic animals ready to be slaughtered." If only we close down the few that do trade in wildlife:
Agree. Went to PNG a week ago and every incoming passenger at Port Moresby had their temperature taken. Coming back through Brisbane, we breezed though immigration and customs.......
What’s the story, Australia? Just breezed through customs at Brisbane International. No temp checks, no questions about health/symptoms. Also, no sniffer dogs or follow up questions re biosecurity and ASF?
@abcnews
I think this is Beijing's strategy. Spook Chinese importers who will decide it is no longer safe to do business with Australia. They will simply look elsewhere for wine and other goods, and the trade with Australia will wither.
The mere threat of a trade suspension is already hurting some Australian exporters. Febrile atmosphere. One winemaker told me today that importers in China have *already* cancelled forward orders because they were spooked by rumours / unofficial warnings from Chinese officials
British spy chiefs split on Huawei. "The intelligence agencies are all agreed that there is a threat. Where there is divergence is on the way the threat can be managed and mitigated.”
Cuomo just now: The Chinese government is facilitating a donation of 1,000 ventilators that will be coming in today. (Brokered by Asia Society.) He thanks Joe Tsai, Jack Ma and the "Chinese ambassador."
A reminder of what it is like trying to report in China (and especially Xinjiang) these days. The sheer surveillance hours thrown at tracking foreign journalists is astonishing:
“Some of them are prepared to die for the movement. I am also willing to die for it.” How desperate citizens became radicals. Excellent
@wsj
article on HK protests:
The opposite is a more likely explanation. Having worked in China for years, foreign carmakers know they would be crucified w/t the political connections of their JV partners.
So this is interesting. Foreign car makers in China will be able to go it alone from 2022. Yet they seem to be choosing to remain in joint ventures. Might sometimes the 'forced technology transfer' narrative be overplayed?
Wang Yang goes where few of Beijing's leaders dare to go; slams CultRev for destroying traditional Chinese culture; compliments Taiwan for preserving it:
A $39bn port in a village of 20,000 people? Australia should be alert to China's intent in PNG but spoiler alert, this will never, ever happen, not least because Beijing's technocrats wouldn't let such risky money out of the country.
From
@POLITICOEurope
"The EU hung Australia out to dry at the WHO's World Health Assembly, derailing call for an independent probe into the coronavirus outbreak by negotiating a compromise with Beijing." Is this how Canberra and Brussels sees it?
All of "the-world-supports-Oz-on-China" headlines this week overshadowed the distinctly cool appraisal from Singapore's Lee Hsien Loong whose speech only a few years ago on regional geo-politics won a big tick from
@ScottMorrisonMP
"In front of Xi were placed two teacups.
The six other Politburo Standing Committee members had only one teacup in front of them."
@NikkeiAsia
's Nakazawa always writes fun articles which only confirm what little knowledge we have about Chinese politics:
The US should keep three assets against China even if its economy is smaller: "A law-governed democracy; a free-market economy; and economically powerful allies. These are sources of admiration, dynamism and strength. Sadly, the US is trashing them all."
So Trump asked Xi to give something to Qualcomm, which was then paraded as a concession, but which Qualcomm didn't want? Things are very messy post-G20 on the US side.
Excellent
@fryan
piece on
#TikTok
's travails, to which could be added another reason for hostility. Beijing bans foreign social media/internet platforms. It can hardly complain if other countries return serve:
"One can no longer talk about Xi Jinping as a normal person. He should not be touched or spoken about”. Germany's Confucius Institutes (inside universities) toe the line
@ft
($):
China isn't the only model for suppressing the
#coronavirusaus
spread, despite its megaphone diplomacy. Good
@FT
take on how democracies like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have managed it as well:
These paeans to the Chinese Government from the likes of Gerry Harvey work well for people like him, until the government decides they don’t like him, and in the name of “getting things done”, bulldozes a few of his stores overnight and puts him in jail without charge.
"A child born in Kerala in India’s south has a better chance of surviving to age five than in the US. In Uttar Pradesh in the north, the odds are worse than in Afghanistan." Terrific article on Modi and India's north-south divide
@andymukherjee70
Superb, forensic journalism on elite princeling wealth in HK. Which raises a question: the CCP needs HK as a financial centre which requires a deal of integrity in public records. How will that system survive a political crackdown?
JUST POSTED: The Chinese Communist Party elite have a huge financial stake in Hong Kong. Relatives of 3 of the top 4 CCP leaders have luxury real estate there worth at least $51m (actually worth far more), a NYT investigation shows. By
@jotted
and me.