Lars Lysdahl @lysdahllars Twitter profile

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Lars Lysdahl

2 months

"Countries where homes use natgas for cooking will have a hard time electrifying or decarbonizing without hydrogen because they will have to upgrade the electrical wiring and breakers". Well, now induction ovens with in-built batteries are coming to the market, meaning that you

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

As Tesla is ramping up their 40 GWh Lathrop MegaFactory producing battery energy storage systems (BESS), lets have a look at this industry.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

Australian shipyard Incat has a ferry under order for South American shipowner Buquebus. What is special about this? It is battery electric (no ICE onboard). It has 40 MWh of ESS onboard, is 425ft, can hold 2100 PAX and 225 cars. Max speed 25 knots. Range you may ask? Wit will

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

6 months

This graph from Tony Seba is interesting. ICE car sales have been declining since 2017 at the same time as EV sales have been increasing. The Osborne effect implies that people wait with buying a new product because a better one is on the horizon. Are consumers doing this with

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

@DivesTech @WholeMarsBlog How do you square "Train wreck conf call" and a PT of $315, which is more than 50% upside?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

What was very bullish on the Tesla Earnings call yesterday was the progress and ramping plans for 4680 production. They have four lines off 25 GWh capacity in production or about to start production. Total 100 GWh. This is by itself faster than I expected.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Other than Tesla there are a number of large global BESS suppliers e.g. Fluence, Siemens, Honeywell, Nidec and cell/rack manufacturers focusing on the segment e.g. CATL, BYD, Freyr, LG, Panasonic.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

The most underrated technology in the energy industry today is the combined potential of behind-meter Solar PV and storage, especially related to commercial and industrial buildings. Distributed solar is the cheapest electricity you can buy. Storage increases the value.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

According to my sources Chinese domestic cell prices are $70-75/kWh for LFP and $80-90/kWh for NMC. This is significantly lower than BMI’s weighted global cell price average of “below $100”. Note the numbers are not completely apples to apples but still interesting to compare.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

@BatteryBulletin @Tesla I just still cannot fathom how many truck "experts" still believe hydrogen is necessary for long-range heavy duty trucking. If you don't trust Tesla's word, at least listen to PepsiCo and their real-life experience.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

@LimitingThe This is kinda insane to have done in three years. This is the speed of Tier 1 cell makers when they set up new plants of known cell types. Startup companies would barely start production in this time frame. Tesla with very little prior experience is producing a completely new…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@Tesla 1) Introduce adjustment of auto wiper intensity 2) Unlock charge cable when doors unlock 3) Improve auto wiper function 4) Reduce DAB radio loading time upon startup 5) Transfer learnings from FSD Beta to people outside US that have paid for the software but are still waiting.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@stevenmarkryan 1. Kia/Hyundai - they are on top of things. 2. Rivian/Lucid - can't build network themselves and EA is S. 3. VW/Stellantis - gotta get in on this. 4. Mercedes - been close to Tesla before. 5. BMW - no other way. I think Toyota will be last. Currently: "forget NCAS look at our H2…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

Got a proper test of living with a battery electric vehicle (2019 Tesla Model 3 without heat pump) in super cold temperatures last week. Car was parked in -20C (-4F) for two days, but worked just fine when driving home. On the way home temperatures fell to -34C (-29F). The only

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

2021 BESS cell demand was around 24 GWh. Early 2022 #rystadenergy forecast a ~doubling to 55 GWh for 2022 (and we are known to be the most optimistic amongst battery analysts. However, mid-year industry sources claimed 80-90 GWh was in order, a 3-4x from 2021.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

11 months

Tesla Mega Factory output now at around 16 GWh at an annualized rate compared to the stated capacity of 40 GWh, spread across two production lines. The 20 GWh per production line assumes all mega packs aold are 4h, but we know they also sell a share of 2h systems, so the 16 GWh

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@stevenmarkryan If Herbert was still CEO of VW I would have put them at the top of the list.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

I am a naval engineer by education and all “experts” say this ship is impossible. I have tried to say batteries will surprise on the upside. My prediction: this trend will only continue as battery/ESS costs come down, energy density increases and the technology matures.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

6 months

@TheEVuniverse It is incredible how much the Rivian aged over the last couple days.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

So what can you use BESS for? It is more than just to stabilize the grid and home storage. The largest short term driver will be 4 hours systems in hybrid with utility scale systems in the US.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Today around 90% of the demand is grid scale systems used to support the grid. We believe SolarPV hybrid systems will drive the demand, then also we see huge potential in behind-meter storage - also coupled with distributed SolarPV.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Tesla using 4680 in energy storage (MegaPack and perhaps Powerwall?) will likely be LFP cathode chemistry and I think they will ditch the modules and go straight from cell to storage block. Even lower costs than today.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

If the 80-90 GWh are factual (numbers being finalized) we may need to revise our very aggressive 300 GWh 2025 demand numbers upwards, and consider the 2.2 TWh for 2030. Please note this is an unconstrained demand inline with a 1.6DG UN IPCC carbon budget scenario.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

I will not be surprised if we in two-three years hear news that a battery electric container feeder ship (short sea) has been ordered. And another two-three years they may be news of a deep sea container ship being ordered.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

On the cell side there are few communicated large offtake agreements. Some recent examples are listed below.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

6 months

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@GregGutmann CATL, BYD, Fluence, Wartsila, Siemens. There is a plethora of players but nobody has the GWh scale at pack level that Tesla has today or communicated in the future. CATL makes their own BESS similar to MP already today.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

4 months

@LimitingThe I support Jordan. He is a research machine and puts his integrity first and is extremely thorough with his sources and when rumors spread.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

If I were to choose ICE disadvantages over EV disadvantages in the cold I would choose the EV disadvantages any day.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

10 months

Ok so I spoke to a BESS turnkey supplier yesterday selling front of meter systems in Europe. They are seeing extreme pricing pressure from Chinese competitors. The all-in cost of a system was $300/kWh! Including EPC and grid connection and project development. This is far ahead

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

If you haven’t figured it out yet the future is about electrons not molecules. From primary to final consumption the electron value chain is far more efficient than for molecules as the energy transportation is much easier in power cables than pipelines, ships and trucks.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

And thank you to @mariuskfoss for pointing out a Chinese even larger electric ship with battery container swapping !

China launches battery-electric container ship - electrive.com

www.electrive.com

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

6 months

On the technology adoption curve the mainstream market starts at 34% adoption. Many countries such as Norway, Sweden and China have thus passed the chasm from the early market and EV dominance is basically a certainty. Many European countries (~20%) are still in the Early

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

Containers can then be discharged during sailing and interchanged with charged ones onshore. Naturally this reduces payload but may still make sense economically due to the large fuel savings which can be 30-50% of a typical deep sea journey. Also as energy density improves you…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

@garyblack00 It is funny how you know better then Tesla how fast they can bring the compact car to market. As if they have chosen to slow down its development.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

Container ships are close to the end consumer and ship owners are thus more interested in reducing their emissions due to the CO2 footprint of the product they are transporting. Also smart companies will realize that you can put batteries in the containers.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

This is interesting. When I spoke to a former tier 1 automaker two years ago I asked him if production costs could decline also outside of the battery cells and packs. He was adamant the cost savings potential was low (beyond production scaling). I think many in legacy auto don’t…

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

3 months

Gartner expects it will be cheaper to build an EV than an ICE vehicle by 2027 $TSLA

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

Although this isn't really news it got me thinking how this is for ICE cars. You don't really hear how they struggle in the cold, something that is common. They don't have the range/fueling issue, but normal issues (even for relatively new cars) are failing 12V starter battery,

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

Speaking of fuel savings: the whole shipping industry (and aviation btw) is optimized to save cost, driven by fuel and maintenance costs. When fuel and maintenance costs are drastically reduced, (Hertz says 50% for cars) the whole optimization equation changes.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

@garyblack00 @DivesTech Tesla confirmed they will start making the next generation platform and the humanoid robot next year. Shouldn't those revenue streams now be included into the DCF models and PTs?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

In 2011 I used to work for an oil company and haven't thought much about it. When my 9yo asked what I did before my current job she was horrified to learn this. Also, a few months ago she asked why all cars aren't electric when they are so much more environmentally friendly. Kids…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

@LimitingThe This means that Tesla now has a current in-house effective cell production capacity of ~10 GWh, assuming the Kato Road Pilot line can do 5 GWh (which I believe it has proven before?).

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

4 months

Hold it hold it. This video says Giga Berlin is producing batteries. Is this today or still only in future plans. Thoughts @LimitingThe ?

Tesla

@Tesla

4 months

Tesla manufacturing is building the machine that builds the machine

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@aaronsibarium The current ESG rating system is a con scheme to lure investors into stocks.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

@danWpriestley @rohanspatel Obviously electric heavy duty trucks don’t work. Hydrogen fuel cell trucks are needed due to long range (electric now comparable), fast refilling (from which filling stations and distribution network?), low sticker price (at least 50% more than electric), low emissions (if…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

6 months

In US for the first time in five years. Directly from Newark to Tesla Meatpacking to see the Cybertruck. This thing is insane. Looks smaller, more rounded and better in person. But still insane. Takes a while to soak the eyes and mind.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

For example a ship’s length, deadweight, cruising speed, width, draft, engine, crew, maintenance plan, and the ports it goes to have all been optimized for saving fuel/maintenance with an ICE engine. With battery electric it may make sense to have many smaller ships with lower…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

Many energy and ship analysts are thinking inside the box and “replacing” eg the ICE of a container ship with battery electric drive train and claiming that “there is no payload left if you want to have enough batteries for a decent range”. I believe this is too simple an

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

4 months

@LimitingThe As I posted a few days ago CATL is selling energy storage cells for $56/kWh. Automotive cells (like in the article, which are costs) are more expensive so the numbers add up.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Energy storage market to 10x in eight years.

New battery storage capacity to surpass 400 GWh per year by 2030

The era of battery energy storage applications may just be beginning, but annual capacity additions will snowball in the coming years as storage becomes crucial to the world’s energy landscape.

www.rystadenergy.com

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

What is certainly the case is that we have not seen the end of developments in cost, power and energy density for battery electric transportation. Watch out!

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@garyblack00 @elonmusk From the Twitter space I think it is apparent that Ford will seek more help from Tesla. Software/infotainment/firmware with OTA, FSD and perhaps design/engineering?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@vtchakarova The company Norge Mining holds potentially huge amounts of phosphate in Norway that can be used in LFP batteries.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@JPSartre_NoExit @madmanx89 @Zerosumgame33 @kbassalleck @SandSDad @TSLAFanMtl Tesla’s two reasons for pricing power. 1 Design: vertical integration allows optimized system and lower costs. 2 Scale: 40 GWh makes them able to supply an extreme demand growth, 3-4x in 2022. Buyers can either pay more and get MP “soon” (2024) or pay less and wait longer.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

Rumors in the battery space are that the oversupply of cells in China is so significant that CATL is considering to sell/deploy production equipment elsewhere. Perhaps there is some truth to the rumor that Tesla will start making cells with CATL at Giga Nevada after all?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

I think the reason may be that EV production and demand are growing slower than cell production (my speculation). There will be waves of over- and undersupply of cells in a secular growth trend for batteries.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

2 months

@JessePeltan Great to see you have come to your senses. Now join the in-the-box-thinking-analysts in believing that ICE cars and fossil energy are the future! EVs were just a fad anyway. And solar PV doesn’t work at night.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

What was even more bullish was that phase 2, another four lines total 100 GWh capacity, will start production next year already! Many analysts thought this was years out and had Giga Texas capacity at 100 GWh. I wanted our data in Rystad Energy to state 200-250 GWh, which turns…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

@TeslaCharging @madmanx89 Ford in the commercial probably since they were the first to commit?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

In 2023 Tesla Energy deployed almost 15 GWh of energy storage (utility, large scale and residential), more than double of the 6.5 GWh in 2022. According to @RystadEnergy research the global deployments of energy storage was around 90-100 GWh, meaning Tesla has a 16-17% global…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

7 months

On my way to work. 13 cars inline, 12 of which BEVs.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@BatteryBulletin @RystadEnergy We forecast LFP share at 43% in 2025 (up from 37% in 2022), increasing to 47% by 2030. Na-ion at 15% in 2030

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@Zerosumgame33 I heard from another source (independent of all your great research) who used to work at Tesla Energy that confirmed that current Megapack margins are 45%.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

In sum: Tesla is communicating that ramping of 4680 production capacity will go much faster than the market expects. Great for cells going into the Cybertruck, Model Y and the Semi. What I am wondering now is if any of this will be with LFP cathode?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

11 months

@rethink_x Distributed Solar and Storage is the most underestimated technology in the energy industry.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

4 months

You can now buy tier 1 lithium-ion energy cells (0.25C 2000 cycles LFP prismatics) out of China for $53/kWh on the spot market. Oversupply in China is causing prices to fall fast!

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Investors are skeptical to BESS due to low utilization, which is why I think pairing with solar is key to ensure stable revenue from load shifting. Buyers of BESS often view capex high. Both of these issues could be solved by having a separate company own and operate assets.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

Comparing this charging rate to normal 150-250 kW fast charging is like comparing today’s internet download speed with that of the early 2000s. If you can charge 300km range in a few minutes then it doesn’t really matter if the car has 400 or 800 km of range. This is like ICE…

Ash

@AshinChina

3 months

Charging curve is insane 😳

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

11 months

@baglino This must be the largest behind-meter battery in the world, even though 250 MWh is proper utility scale. I think people are vastly underestimating the behind-meter energy storage market, which is not limited by regulatory approval at the same level as front of meter. And the…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

6 months

@TomNault No this is apples and apples. ICE and EV are in the same playing field with the same challenges wrt production problems and parts shortages that hit both segments. Interest rates actually hurt EVs more than ICE due to higher sticker price. Also ICE sales fell from 2017 to 2019…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

AFAIK there is some overcapacity on cell manufacturing now, especially in China. Cell demand is not ramping as quickly as expected so cell producers are reducing output rather than growing inventories (which they did late 2022).

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@Zerosumgame33 In the US a cross-state transmission line can take 10 years just to get the licenses. Then there is construction. With BESS you can instead put batteries in the needed regions - much quicker and cheaper.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

With the announcement that Tesla may put 4680s into stationary storage systems I started to wonder what this may look like in Powerwalls and MegaPacks.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

So what about BESS prices? AFAIK residential is at ~$1000/kWh, behind meter C&I is $500-800 and utility is $400-500. Note that numbers are all-in capex with installation, EPC and project development.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@TheEVuniverse @LimitingThe In Oslo Norway fleet EV share is 30%. In some neighborhoods over 50%. Most city buses on the road are electric. It’s starting to get to a state where loud gas cars are getting noticed. Really nice and quiet.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

I believe Tesla will add another two lines, 50 GWh in a phase 3 later.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@JoeTegtmeyer @jpr007 We all know nobody is buying these cars. Tesla is just making them for fun to show off to the public. Clearly demand is collapsing.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

According to an industry source you can now buy CATL BESS DC blocks for $150/kWh in Europe. Adding power electronics, system integration, EPC, grid connection and project management the total system capex should now be in the 250-300 $/kWh range.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

System sizes? Varies a lot but typically 6-12 kWh for residential, 1-5 MWh for C&I and 100 to 2000 MWh for utility. I think C&I systems will become a lot larger when paired with large rooftop solar and people understand that a large behind meter battery can not only support ..

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

The potential for behind the meter C&I batteries is not well understood. The batteries can both support their host facility (solar pv, backup etc) and get revenues from grid services. This increases utilization, which is a key concern among investors.

TGN Energy

@TGNEnergy

3 months

Meet the Revac flexasset, one of the first installations of its kind in Northern Europe. Revac is a recycler of e-waste that has used TGN to integrate 850kWp rooftop solar and a 1MW battery at its facility. The system is trading and provides balancing services for the grid.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

10 months

@SawyerMerritt @ajtourville @Tesla Still people think electric trucks are unrealistic and hydrogen fuel cell is necessary

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

Who will run away with all the revenues and profits? I think there will be three waves. First wave is the component manufacturers, second wave is the system manufacturers, third and most profitable wave is that of companies that understand the new services this combo of

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

The energy transition is slowing down right? Well not solar PV. Rystad Energy estimates 58 GWac of new solar in Europe in 2023, up 30% from 2022.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

@heydave7 This is just incredible. I have had both cars. The i3 is actually a great car for its purpose - city driving. But nobody would compare a compact car like the Golf with a medium sedan like a BMW 3-series, so why do this for the i3/Model 3. Just because they are both EVs?

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

10 months

Speaking at Oslo Battery Days today about Battery Energy Storage - The Sleeping Giant

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

5 months

@SawyerMerritt @WholeMarsBlog Does he treat other automakers equally? What have legacy auto delivered on in the EV space compared to promises from a few years ago.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Tesla Q123 energy storage deployed was almost 4 GWh, which is close to their full-year 2021 number. Putting the 4 GWh i to context: the global full-year 2022 storage market at 42 GWh. MegaFactory is ramping and global demand for storage is accelerating.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Spain and Germany will likely pass 50% of power generation coming from Renewables within 2023, and the UK is not far behind. This has been achieved without large adoption of BESS so far.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

8 months

Turns out EVs are better for the environment after all. Who would have guessed. @RystadEnergy :

Driving energy transition, EVs are better for environment

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are the clear winner when trying to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, according to Rystad Energy research.

www.rystadenergy.com

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

.. the building they represent behind meter by doing eg peak shaving, operational management and act as backup, but also make revenues with time shifting of electricity and ancillary services.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@madmanx89 Tesla has their own 4680 in-house production in Shanghai. Operational already.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

7 months

Speaking to an investment banker the other day I said that the energy transition is going faster than most people expected only a couple years ago. His read on things was the opposite - oil companies are reducing their investments in clean tech. If you think the oil companies…

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@skorusARK Like a list of all time rock bands without Beatles.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

2 months

My bet is on Ford. Will be announced during 2024. Will be a validation of the technology and many more car makers to onboard.

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

2 months

@WholeMarsBlog And we will license the tech to other car companies

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@skorusARK Sigh. Second that. Nobody will believe when I try to argue the same. No technology disruption in history has been significantly slowed by the supply chain, apart from WW1/2.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

9 months

@JomauxJulien That’s the million dollar question. I believe they are pushing prices down to capture market share.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@RystadEnergy closely follows the li-ion battery cell producers. We have recently updated our tiering of the companies, which we use to convert announced capacities to actual production per year. We risk the SOP, ramp-up time and yield rate to get to a supply-demand balance.

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

3 months

I assume most of those interested saw that almost 10% of medium and heavy duty truck sales in December 2023 were eletric (BEV and FCEV)? Well - I looked into Germany and there BEV trucks constituted almost 23% of new vehicle truck registrations in all of 2023!

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

Typical grid-scale standalone BESS have all-in CAPEX of $350-500. When co-located with SolarPV economies of scale and synergies mean BESS CAPEX can be half - so $175-250. Not many analysts include this in their forecast. @RystadEnergy #energystorage #Battery #Tesla

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

10 months

@teslaenergy @LimitingThe Battery energy storage costs and installation time still have a lot of improvement potential as system design is optimized, componentry is reduced and standardized and manufacturing is scaled. Home batteries will become as ubiquitous and cheap as fridges. What will happen when

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Lars Lysdahl

@lysdahllars

1 year

@farzyness @elonmusk Yeah actual data shows ev and Tesla batteries last much longer than expected. We have a large fleet of old EVs here in Norway and an energy storage company here was gonna base their cell supply on used ev batteries. But batteries last longer than the 7-10 years expected.

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