Damian Lillard is prepared to only play for the Miami Heat and his stance is Heat-or-bust, per
@sam_amick
โHe wants to compete with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, to grow inside that famed 'Heat culture' system under Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra while becoming the final piece toโฆ
Warriors having a 112.6 ORtg against that Boston defense while Klay has been awful and Poole has had like 5 good minutes is incredible. Steph Curry is really just amazing.
KD definitely gets way less slander than any other star in the league. If Steph or Harden or Giannis or Jokic or pick any other star had that game, the takes that'd be flying...
Ben Simmons is the only player in the NBA to guard each position at least 10% of the time and hold the opposing player under their normal production (points per 100 poss) at all 5 positions (look at PLAYER_PTS_DIFF columns and %PG, %SG, etc.)
ICYMI I've updated the defensive positions dataset to include stats like eFG%/TS% vs. each position and how many points a player allows per 100 poss vs. each position compared to what the offensive player normally scores
Giannis and Tatum having the exact same eFG% is wild considering one guy is having his worst season in years and the other player is having a career year.
Beverley leads the league with 13 forced turnovers. Thybulle in 2nd with 12. And considering Thybulle has played just 66 mins, he's averaging 6.5 forced turnovers per 36 mins (vs. 4.4 steals/36). This is some of the new data the NBA has started tracking on the hustle stats page.
The list of NBA champions without a top-three player in the league is amazingly brief, particularly in recent times, writes
@johnhollinger
.
These Celtics are trying to add their name.
Are we moving away from a superstar-driven league?
Wiggins didn't really want to get vaccinated but got vaccinated and won a ship. Kyrie didn't want to get vaccinated, never did, played half a season and was on the only playoff team that got swept. Hmm.
The Celtics have a higher net rating with Tatum off the court (+8.1!!!) than the 2017 Warriors had with Steph off the court (-0.1 ???). There's really no way he should be getting MVP consideration lol. The team has the highest net rating in the league with Tatum OFF the court lol
PHI's splits here are hilarious: they're 1-12 on the road against these top 13 teams which is by far the worst record out of those 13 teams. But they're also 10-2 at home vs top 13 teams which is also the best record at home by a decent cushion.
Records vs Top 13 teams in the league (so all teams >0.500 except MEM)
DEN 13-7 (0.65 win%)
MIL 10-6 (0.625)
LAC 13-8 (0.619)
LAL 12-9 (0.571)
MIA 12-9 (0.571)
BOS 10-8 (0.556)
HOU 11-9 (0.55)
IND 9-11 (0.45)
PHI 11-14 (0.44)
DAL 9-13 (0.409)
TOR 8-12 (0.400)
UTA 7-12 (0.368)
Todayโs
#NBAList
TOP 6 MOST LIKELY TO WIN COACH OF THE YEAR:
Nate McMillan
Quin Snyder
David Fizdale
Jim Boylen
Dwane Casey
Doc Rivers
HON MENTIONS:
Alvin Gentry
Monty Williams
Brad Stevens
Luke Walton
Milwaukee is shooting 20.5% on Open 3s (closest defender distance of 6+ ft) in this series (8-39 overall). And that number isn't actually skewed cause of Giannis who is 3-9 in this series. So non-Giannis Bucks are actually 5-30 on open 3s (16.7%). Brooklyn is 20-50 on Open 3s.
Strength of Schedule accounting for injuries, rest, covid, etc. Example: the Nets playing the Sixers without Embiid, Harden and Maxey is given an opponent net rating of -1.655 as opposed to Boston who played Philly full strength and gets an opponent net rating of 6.848.
Curry's finishing grade per our
@The_BBall_Index
grades is 96.2. And his playmaking grade is 97.9. He's not just a shooter. Great offensive player overall.
Fultz posted very good steal, rebound and assist rates in his admittedly very limited sample of games (only 14). Also shot well at the rim. Why has everyone given up on him so quickly? Shooting is one of the skills that you can develop.
If you're wondering why Steph can't seem to hit 3s like he used too, the left is what he's shooting on contested 3s (about in line with 16-17 through last year) and the right is what he's shooting on open 3s: down ~ 4% from all other years. So yeah, he should be fine
The 76ers are 1st in passes per game (by quite a bit- almost 20 a game), 3rd in asts & secondary asts, 2nd in potential assists, 3rd to last in Time of Poss, last in avg sec per touch, last in avg dribbles per touch, 1st in avg speed on offense & distance run and 2nd last in isos
Maxey should take like 10 3s a game. Even if it's not 10, the current 6.2 /game (or 6.6 p36) is definitely not high enough. Over the last 2 years, he's shooting 39.7% on 297 pull up 3s & 45.3% (!!) on 373 catch & shoot 3s.
Which teams have their Centers play aggressively? As an example, dropping in the P&R is considered conservative compared to blitzing the P&R which is considered aggressive. Higher is more aggressive.
Warriors net rating with a player OFF court:
Wiggins: +8.5
Dray: +8.9
Poole: +10.8
Looney: +10.4
Porter: +8.4
GP2: +6.5
JTA: + 9.6
D Lee: +9.7
Bjelica: +9.7
Iggy: +6.8
Kuminga: +9.3
Chiozza: +11.3
and then
Steph: -1.7
Steph Curry is literally the leader at sportsbooks for odds and was No.1 in the last strawpoll taken. This is the only point Iโm interested in debating.
Steph is averaging 25.7 ppg in the playoffs BUT in 25 minutes per game. That translates to 36.8 points per 75 possessions. Also has a 70.1% TS% on a 37.9% usage rate.
According to Second Spectrum data, among guards who have played 500+ minutes, Donovan Mitchell is 90th among 99 qualifying guards in Screen Die On% (on P&R, DHOs and off-ball screens). That is he "dies on" screens at one of the highest rates in the league.
Using the NBA matchup data & positions from basketball-reference, you can see how much time each player spent guarding each position (%'s are out of total possessions). For example, The Brow has spent 48.47% of his defensive possessions guarding Centers.
We actually found an error where low volume 3pt shooters weren't being penalized so with that fixed, here's an updated look at the spacing around the Ringer's top 25 players
Spencer Dinwiddie has been roasting Centers in mismatches this year- averaging 50.4 points per 75 possessions (in 198 possessions with a Center matched up w/ him). The league avg. points per 75 possessions for guards in these mismatches is 27.8 points per 75 poss.
Wonder if KD's value is a lot lower among the league than the general media thinks (which is why the offers seem to stink). He's played 90 games out of 154 over the last 2 seasons (just above 50%), is going to be 34 and is coming off a really bad playoff series vs. Boston.
Middleton's shooting splits on offense this year:
0-3 ft: 68.6%
3-10 ft: 45.8%
10-16 ft: 53.0%
16-23 ft: 52.4%
3pt: 43.9%
He's probably due for some regression because holy shit those shooting %'s but if that carries over to the playoffs, have no idea how you're gonna beat MIL.
These 3 players are:
Bradley Beal
Steph Curry
Terrence Ross.
Given how important perimeter shooting & playmaking are, easy to make the case they are playing in lineups with the worst offensive talent of any high minute player.
Using lineups from pbpstats, we can filter out garbage time (remove low leverage) and find the average talent each player has played with using our
@The_BBall_Index
grades. 3 players (> 250 minutes) have played with lineups featuring avg playmaking & perimeter shooting < 50%:
Justise Winslow has been among the top 12 most versatile defenders in the league every year since entering the league in 15-16, including top 6 for the last 3 years
The whole 65 game minimum rule is stupid. 1) It's arbitrary 2) It was fine the way it used to be. No one was voting a player who played 35 games to All NBA. You don't have to assume voters are stupid. And if you think they are, don't give them a vote?
Okay, I'm now officially fucking irritated about these All-NBA rules.
Jamal Murray is ineligible for All-NBA despite being on track to play in 66 games if he plays the rest of the season.
WHY is he ineligible?
Because the rule is actually 20+ minutes in 65 separate games.โฆ
The NBA added a really cool stat- Deterrent Factor- to the matchup pages. In this example, Roberson has a 59.8% Deterrent Factor vs Harden which indicates Harden shot 40.2% less Field Goals per Possession when guarded by Roberson than he normally does.
There is a correlation between Ball Dominance and Playmaking Talent. Most of the better playmakers do dominate the ball. And then there is Nikola Jokic.
New feature we've added at
@The_BBall_Index
where you can highlight players in the scatter plot while greying out the rest.
Ran an xgboost model predicting LEBRON using just stats that are available back to the start of the NBA. Top 30 seasons below. It's probably giving too much of a boost to more recent seasons (not surprising).
@SamQuinnCBS
Is missing Avery Bradley really the same as missing Dragic + Bam missing 2 games and being hampered? We can say Riley's statement isn't great without equalizing the Heat and Lakers' injuries.
Can we also stop making the comparison between Westbrook's "historic" season and Harden's "historic" season. Westbrook's historic season was averaging a round number, Harden's historic season is literally pushing, actually no- "blowing past" the usage-efficiency curve.
@bbstats
@NBAcouchside
I'd also add that in the literal sense of looking at "Most Valuable" Player, it's going to favor Harden because it's easier to take a team from 40 wins to 50 wins than it is to take a team from say 55 wins to 62 wins. But in the spirit of the award, I don't know that thats fair.
Top 10 in playoff PIPM. Yes, that is James Harden in 3rd. Unfortunately for HOU, Westbrook is 196th out of 215 players with a -1.41 PIPM. It's been rough since coming back from his injury.
If anyone is wondering why Boston is 14th in ORtg per cleaningtheglass, they're 27th in location eFG% and 20th in FT rate. Basically the Celts offense is all about getting the hardest points possible and nothing easy (25th in rim frequency & 23rd in 3s + 28th on corner 3s).
Look no one is really loyal in sports- teams or players and everyone seems to understand that. The annoying part about the Dame stuff was the 10,000 quotes we got about loyalty and running from the grind etc.
For all sophomore seasons with 600+ minutes played in our database (going back to 2013-14), Tyrese Maxey had one of the best seasons in both Finishing Talent and Pull Up Shooting Talent.
Everyone is posting spoilers from
@ElGee35
top 10 best peaks video smh. Please do treat it like a movie you're looking forward to and don't post spoilers thanks
It's very early in the season- too early for LEBRON but I did run box LEBRON (without the padding by roles) and here's the top 30.
I've heard Tyrese is a top 10 name ๐
Don't think there's any meaning behind this because of the small sample but
@cleantheglass
has 11 teams who are on pace for an expected win total of > 50 wins. Here's how the league has fared against those 11 teams
On/Off stats are useless right now. Per
@kmedved
, he found that about 1000 possessions of league average is needed to pad (or stabilize) lineup data. At this moment, no player has played more than 818 poss which would mean over 50% of the stabilized lineup data is league average.