Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA @julianHjessop Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

@julianHjessop

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Independent economist. Likes charts. IEA Economics Fellow. Speakers for Schools. Geller Commission. COYG. Own views, etc. I fund myself. See website for more 👇

'Tufton Street' (apparently!)

https://t.co/lyXZy5w07Q

Joined May 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

14 hours

📢 chart of the day 🤓 (with the right labels this time 😔) Here's the breakdown of the jump in the HMRC measure of median pay growth (from 6.4% in March to 6.9% in April). My three takeaways 1⃣ shows the impact of the big hike in the National Living Wage - sectors where pay

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

A QC writes... 🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 years

Just a reminder that if you send a remotely unwoke tweet you're at risk of a visit from the police. On the other hand, even if you actually vandalise the gardens of, say, Trinity College, that's fine as long as you're progressive and trendy.🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

I’ve read some utter tosh on the state of the UK public finances in the last few days. Here's an attempt to correct some of the biggest misunderstandings. Most importantly, government debt does not have to be ‘repaid’, only serviced... (1/19) #SR20 #SpendingReview #RishiSunak

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 years

A shutdown lasting several months crashed the economy, inflicted huge welfare costs, and still failed to prevent a second wave. But a two-week #circuitbreaker is expected to achieve what the first #lockdown could not? 😕

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

I see the media are leading with ‘UK interest rates raised to 13-year high’. Surely the more important point is that the new rate of 1% is still historically very low, even before taking account of the jump in inflation...

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Here's a simple chart to show that the #BankofEngland has not, in fact, had to spend "£65 billion" to prop up the #gilts market (and almost certainly won't, either)... 🤓 You can find the data here:

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

Darren Grimes may not be everybody's cup of tea, but the trolls piling in on him today should be ashamed of themselves. That is all.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

By popular demand, here's a chart comparing #food price #inflation in the UK and the euro area... 'Other narratives are available' 😉 #Brexit #BrexitReality etc

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

Guess who has set the limit for donations to their 'European elections battle fund' at £499, so that 'individual donors don’t have to be checked'? #DarkMoney Yep, its @peoplesvote_uk ...

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

8 months

Around 3,000 people joined the #RejoinMarch today, nearly as many as watched Newport County's thrilling 1-1 draw with Barrow (3,539) in the fourth tier of English football last weekend... 👍

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Campaign to rejoin EU gathers strength at protest march

Thousands of people have joined the National Rejoin March in central London

www.independent.co.uk

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Since Liz #Truss is trending again, a quick reminder that claims her (Kwarteng's) mini-Budget 'cost the country £30 billion' are cobblers. c£10 billion of that was a flaky estimate of the premium on long-term rates (now gone) and the rest was tax cuts (which helped the economy).

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

FYI, here's a chart of *what's actually happened* to #food prices in the UK and EU after #Brexit ... 👇 (sorry, no counterfactual models, or Tarot readings 😉) Since 2019, the CPI measure of food prices has risen by 19.9% in the UK, 21.1% in the euro area, and 24.1% in the EU.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Am increasingly worried the UK government is going to be bounced into more #Omicron restrictions by #Sage leaks, dodgy claims, and iffy stats... 🙄

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 months

@LizWebsterSBF @waitrose FYI, neither UK nor EU rules require 'use by' or 'best by' dates on fresh fruit and vegetables (largely to reduce food waste). Obviously, shops shouldn't be selling mouldy beans (and customers shouldn't buy them). But this has nothing to do with #Brexit ... 🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 years

Ignore this. The EU is waving all these wage subsidy schemes through. #RishiSunak

@Steven_Swinford

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

4 years

Exclusive: EU has blown big hole in Rishi Sunak's bailout package under state aid rules Grants & 'tax advantages' capped at €800,000 *per company* Big retailers & hotel chains will see little benefit from Sunak’s pledged £20bn business rates holiday

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

Just reminding myself what the Conservative Party manifesto said on a #CustomsUnion . It states: 'we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union' and 'leaving the EU also means we will be free to strike our own trade agreements with countries outside the EU'...

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Some cracking charts here, comparing #Sage scenarios with what actually happened... (h/t @spectator ) Source:

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

No fan of this 'excess profits' narrative... 1. The big numbers are *global* profits, only a small part of which are made (and taxable) in the UK 2. 'Excess' here just means higher than normal 3. These profits are *already* taxed (at 65% for N Sea oil and gas producers) #PMQs

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

I see the usual suspects still trying to pin higher food prices on #Brexit ... FYI, food price #inflation is also in double digits (≥10%) in the US, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Spain, Germany, Portugal and Denmark, and in both the euro area and EU as whole.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

I'll explain again for those at the back... 😉 A country that imports 95% of its winter #tomatoes is more likely to suffer shortages if imports are disrupted than one that imports 40% of its winter tomatoes. Regardless of whether they are in the EU, or not. (You're welcome!)

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

Would expats in France or Spain please stop telling me that empty supermarket shelves and food shortages are now widespread in the UK. I actually live here - and know this isn't true. Thank you. #BrexitReality

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Well, this is awkward... 👍 87% of global financial services firms plan to establish - or extend - operations in the UK in 2022 👍 90% think the UK will retain the same level of attractiveness - or improve - over the next three years #BrexitReality

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Investor confidence in UK financial services hits new high, amid COVID-19

87% of global financial services firms plan to establish or extend operations in the UK in 2022

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

The usual suspects (typically political journalists straying into economics 🙄) seem keen to blame Truss/Kwarteng for today's ¾% hike from the Bank of England. In fact, the MPC is simply catching up with other central banks (incl. the Fed and ECB) who have already hiked by ¾%...

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 months

This is utter tosh... 🙄 I know it suits many people - including the regulators - to blame the LDI crisis on Liz Truss, but let's just look at this £425 billion figure. It refers to the fall in the value of DB pension fund assets over 2022 as a whole - most of which occurred

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@angelaeagle

Angela Eagle DBE

3 months

Just let that sink in - Liz Truss’ mini-budget helped knock £425bn off pension funds’ assets in 2022

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Your regular reminder that the so-called 'Brexit divorce bill' is money that the UK would have had to pay anyway if we had remained a member of the EU. The usual suspects on here claiming this is a #cost of #Brexit are therefore talking bollocks. #BrexitReality

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Even if the £500,000 figure is correct (seems high for the marginal cost of using a government plane to fly Liz Truss and team to Australia), the justifications given - availability, flexibility, onboard facilities, security - all seem reasonable to me...

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Liz Truss defends using private jet to Australia which 'cost taxpayers £500,000'

Critics called the move a ‘grotesque misuse’ of public money.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

21 days

@HumzaYousaf FYI, Horizon was run by the Post Office not the Royal Mail, justice is a devolved matter in Scotland, and prosecutions were undertaken by Scotland's Crown Office. Other than that, spot on! 🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

Britain's 'place in the world' has never depended on EU membership (if anything, it was weakened by it). But for those worried about such things, the UK is still part of the BIS, Commonwealth, Council of Europe, G7, G20, ILO, IMF, NATO, OCSE, OECD, UN, WHO, World Bank, WTO... 🤓

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

How it started, and how it's going... #GlobalBritain 👍

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

I've been trying to ignore this, but it's being widely shared... 🙄 The UK economy is *not* suffering more than other countries. Just look at the latest data on GDP, inflation, unemployment, today's PMI surveys, etc.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

So, we're heading back to the old 'doom loop' of higher taxes, spending cuts, and sluggish growth... ...and based on unchallenged OBR forecasts, too 🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

FYI, NHS #nurses are paid more *on average* than people working in the rest of the economy. (Ballpark numbers: average NHS nurses pay is about £34k, average private sector earnings £30k) #nhspay

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

More damning evidence of #BrexitFoodShortages in my local Tesco's this evening...

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

FYI, here's a chart of UK and German #GDP , updated to include today's Q3 data for the UK. Since Q1 2016 (the quarter before the vote to leave the EU), the UK economy has grown by around 6.7% and the German economy by about 6.2%. #BrexitReality

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

FYI, here's an update of UK GDP compared to our peers in the EU. In short, following a bigger fall during #Covid , the UK has now caught up. There is no clear impact from #Brexit on overall GDP, and no sign either (yet?) that the UK is being hit harder by the #costoflivingcrisis .

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

"Our zombie economy is crumbling and the real culprits are getting off scot-free. Truss is being blamed for the collapse of the debt-fuelled Jenga society that she was trying to replace..." Excellent from Allister Heath 👍

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Britain's zombie economy is crumbling and the real culprits are getting off scot-free

Truss is being blamed for the collapse of the debt-fuelled Jenga society that she was trying to replace

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Mark Carney has doubled-down on his nonsense claim that 'in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70%'. @jdportes has already pointed out the problems of using market exchange rates. But it's even worse: Carney's own numbers are wrong! (1/3)

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Just in case anyone wants to mention #Brexit , blame the Tories etc, here are the February CPI #inflation rates for the UK and the EU... 😉 🇬🇧 6.2% 🇪🇺 6.2% ps. US inflation was 7.9%

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

Umpteenth reminder that... 1. allowing tariff-free access to your markets is a benefit to your economy, not a 'concession' 2. free trade is a 'win-win' for both sides, not a zero-sum game 3. 'trade experts' and commentators who argue otherwise don't understand basic economics

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Once again, the #BankofEngland didn't have to buy any #gilts today... 🤓 Others can argue about the significance of this, but I'm going to take it as 'good news' - and move on.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 months

Dominic Grieve claims here that #Brexit has 'dramatically raised' the cost of UK food... 🤔 In reality, since 2019 #food prices have risen by about the same in the UK as in the euro area, and by slightly less than in the EU as a whole. #badbrexittakes

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@mikegalsworthy

Mike Galsworthy

@mikegalsworthy

5 months

🔥 Vice President of European Movement, Dominic Grieve, explains how UK inflation was fuelled by Brexit and Trussonomics in the first place.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 years

The 'news' in today's #GDP data is not that the UK is in #recession (we all knew that already!), or even that the UK's Q2 decline is likely to be the biggest in the G7. It is that GDP rose 8.7% m/m in June, confirming that a decent recovery has begun.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Utter nonsense indeed - from Liz Webster ( @LizWebsterLD )... 1. The UK has never had the 'cheapest' food in the world. 2. Standards haven't changed significantly since #Brexit . 3. UK food inflation isn't even the highest in Europe, let alone 'the world' Otherwise, spot on!

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@LizWebsterSBF

Liz Webster

1 year

Utter nonsense. EU membership ensured we had the cheapest and safest food in the world. Now we are paying a lot more for food which is less safe and lower quality. Our food inflation is the highest in the world thanks to #Brexit .

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

There seems to be some confusion today about who pays bankers' bonuses. It's the banks themselves, not the government, and certainly not 'district nurses'... 🤷‍♂️

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 years

You'd have thought Richard Burgon, of all people, would understand the importance of 'density'... 🙄

@RichardBurgon

Richard Burgon MP

4 years

So many countries are doing much better than we are at tackling Coronavirus Failure after failure is costing lives. We must speak out. UK - 228 deaths per million people Ireland - 116 Portugal - 67 Germany - 51 Canada - 39 South Korea - 5 China - 3 Australia - 3 New Zealand - 2

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

A bit of myth busting... the #BoE hasn't spent £65 billion to prop up the economy / bail out pension funds / save #KwasiKwarteng (or any variation)... Instead, it has said it will buy gilts in 13 daily auctions, with a limit of £5bn each day. Today it did just £22 *million*...

@BruceReuters

Andy Bruce

2 years

Bank of England buys just £22 million of long-dated gilts today. They rejected offers to sell to the BoE worth £1.889 billion.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

If this is your idea of a 'Christmas party', I'd be happy to give it a miss... 🤶

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

If someone insists that #Brexit has added 6% to UK #food prices since 2019, show them this chart... 😉 ps. food price #inflation in March this year was 5.8% in both the UK and the euro area, and 6.9% in the EU as a whole.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 month

@youth_demand @Keir_Starmer @UKLabour You do know Labour's not in power, and hasn't been since 2010?? 🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Today's mischievous take... If " #BrexitBritain " is so awful, why has net migration to the UK just hit a record high? 😉

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

7 months

@PrivateEyeNews FYI, I'll be cancelling my subscription on the back of this. Your implication that Israel is set on 'killing everyone in Gaza' is completely unacceptable.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

By popular demand (yes, really!) here's an updated chart of UK #exports of #fish to the EU, showing the slump in January *and* the subsequent recovery... 🐟🦀 #BrexitReality

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

#AstraZeneca has explicitly said it's going to build a new factory in Ireland because of the "discouraging" tax rate in the UK. But "Remain Twitter" apparently knows better. The real reason is that ... wait for it ... Ireland is in the EU! 🙄

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Worth repeating that EU is facing the same #CostOfLivingCrisis as the UK (or worse) Today's flash estimates for #inflation in March (🇪🇺 harmonised measure)... 🇩🇪 7.6% 🇪🇸 9.8% ps. latest 🇬🇧 figure was 6.2% in February, though likely to peak above 8% later this year

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

8 months

Another superb example of #Brexit 'confirmation bias'... 🙄 In value terms, UK #food exports increased by 3.8% in the first half of 2023, with sales to the EU (+7.6%) *outperforming* those to the rest of the world (-1.2%) Volumes were down, both to the EU *and* the rest of the

@AlexTaylorNews

Alex Taylor

@AlexTaylorNews

8 months

Well this is maybe the least surprising article ever 🤡 "UK food exports in steep decline to EU and the world" That's what happens when you put up massive trade barriers with by far your biggest market - and can't ship food to far away countries which produce it themselves ! 🤡

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

7 months

Of course, Laurence Fox's big mistake was not to make his comments on Channel 4... 🫤 @LozzaFox

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Fyi, latest PwC survey finds #BrexitBritain has risen to become the third-most important country in the world for chief executives seeking to expand their businesses (citing strengths in technological sectors, and business-friendly conditions)... 👍

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UK Jumps Into the Top Three Countries for Growth, Bosses Say

The UK has become the third-most important country in the world for chief executives trying to expand their businesses, according to a prominent survey, the first time it has broken into the top...

www.bloomberg.com

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

7 months

Good grief... 🙄 Will this man ever stop interfering in UK politics?

@benrileysmith

Ben Riley-Smith

7 months

BREAKING Mark Carney backs Rachel Reeves to be the next chancellor. A short video played at conference just after her speech. Carney says it is time to put Reeves’s work and ideas into action. Carney was handpicked by George Osborne as Bank of England governor. Ouch.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

11 months

Two thoughts on the Universal Basic Income trials... 1. I'm willing to bet that someone being given £1,600 a month for nothing will, indeed, be happier 2. The upfront cost of giving £1,600pm to 52 million adults would be about £1,000 billion a year 🤔

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Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England

Scheme to run for two years and participants will be monitored to see what effect it has on mental and physical health

www.theguardian.com

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

FYI, in December 2020 the #OECD was forecasting that the #UK economy would grow by 4.2% in 2021. The outturn was 7.5%. Just two months ago (September) it was forecasting UK growth of 3.4% for 2022. Now it's 4.4%. Still, I'm sure its 2023 and 2024 forecasts will be spot on... 😉

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Usual bollocks today about 'British Gas' making record profits from household #energybills ... 🙄 In reality, BG's profits *fell* by 39%, on wafer thin margins. Yes, profits rebounded at #Centrica (BG's parent), but these were made from drilling and trading, not retail... (1/6)

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Natural #gas price continues to tumble... 👍 Can't stress enough how important this is, including for the UK public finances. The cost of the #Energy Price Guarantee could be far lower than feared (and lower than many of the alternatives based on large upfront cash transfers...)

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

Peter (Lord) Hain claimed (unchallenged) on R4 Today just now that WTO rules would require a #hardborder (incl infrastructure at border) in Ireland if #NoDeal . This is simply wrong. #ProjectFear

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Since Liz Truss is in the news again, here's a quick debunking of claims that last September’s mini-Budget cost the country £74 billion / £73 billion / £65 billion / £30 billion *... *delete as applicable

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Did the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget really cost the country £ [insert gigantic number here] billion?

Speculation that Liz Truss is about to make to return to frontline politics has prompted a flurry of dodgy claims and daft statistics about the economic cost of last September’s mini-Budget. Here&#…

julianhjessop.com

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Fair play to Bloomberg for reporting that the London stock market has regained its top spot from Paris. But will this be retweeted as widely as the original story that Paris had edged ahead? ( #qtwtain )

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London’s Stock Market Edges Back Above Paris After Pound Surge

A rally in the pound has lifted the UK stock market back above its French equivalent as the biggest in Europe in dollar terms, after it lost the title just 10 days ago.

www.bloomberg.com

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

Two more examples of small regional airlines that recently have gone bust elsewhere in the EU: Germania (Germany, 6 planes) and VLM (Belgium, 36). Unlike #flybmi (UK, 17) no-one is blaming #Brexit .

@AirportWebcams

Airport Webcams

@AirportWebcams

5 years

AIRLINE NEWS: With the demise of Germania, VLM and now #Flybmi , Germany's Rostock-Laage Airport has lost ALL of its scheduled passenger services within six months.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

A few features of the #energy market that Gordon Brown (and his many fans here) don't seem to understand... 🙄 1. Energy suppliers are not the ones making big profits. None of his ideas - including #nationalisation - would reduce the prices they have to pay in global markets.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Lots of charts flying around to show how much the UK economy has 'underperformed' since the #Brexit vote... 🙄 In reality, the differences in where GDP has ended up are relatively small, given the volatility in the meantime and huge shocks from #Covid and the #energycrisis ... 👇

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

"The £30bn cost of disastrous Truss budget" 🙄 About half of the £30bn here is the reversal of the NI increases, which most welcomed. About £10bn is the temporary premium on government borrowing costs, which has now largely gone (and wasn't just due to Truss/Kwarteng anyway).

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

To be clear, if anyone does want to mention #Brexit when discussing today's #inflation numbers, please feel free! Here they are: 🇬🇧 5.4% 🇮🇪 5.7% 🇩🇪 5.7%

@PaulbernalUK

Prof Paul Bernal

2 years

And remember, everyone, you’re not allowed to mention Brexit when discussing the highest level of inflation for a generation.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Good stuff from Rishi #Sunak - will need to wade through the details, but looks like a sensible mix of targeted support for low-income households (including pensioners and disabled) and a universal payment to reduce #energy bills 👍 (Far more ambitious than Labour's plans, BTW)

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Actual headline: "UK reports more than 50,000 new Covid cases for a second successive day" (see Sky, the Mirror, Sun, Independent, etc etc) 🙄 Alternative headline: "New Covid cases just 1% higher than a week ago, despite 5% increase in number of tests" 👍 #Omicron

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Can we please stop saying 'the UK is the only G7 economy which is still smaller than it was before the pandemic'? This is no longer true, after German GDP was revised down... 🤓

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

6 years

Last night Channel 4 showed a disturbing programme in which a young chef named Jamie Oliver (?) celebrated the cuisine of Italy, even though he appears to be from Essex. Who will join me in speaking out against this appalling cultural appropriation? #JamieCooksItaly

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Reminder that the #BankofEngland has not, in fact, spent '£65 billion' propping up the #gilt market... FAO @TimesRadio 🤓

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

The BBC is running a story today about how UK vistors will lose 'free' access to state-provided healthcare under the European Health Insurance Card ( #EHIC ) system in the event of a #nodealBrexit . Here are three things you should know... (1/4)

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 months

@edwinhayward A good effort - and I appreciate you've shown your workings - but your numbers are still wrong... 🤓 1. The Treasury chart shows the change between Q4 2009 and Q3 2023 (i.e. quarterly data – see the footnote). You have compared 2022 with 2010 (annual data). That is why the

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

"You've got a nice, long, slow column here. Shame if anything were to happen to it..." 🤞

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the big problem for the #NHS is not a surge in #Covid patients, but a shortage of staff to treat anyone. So given the reassuring evidence on the severity of #Omicron , isn't the solution a shorter isolation period, not more restrictions?

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

Obvious point to make on #BreconByelection , but here goes anyway... Tot up the votes in #Brecon for the pro- #Brexit parties to make a #LeaveAlliance . Ignoring Labour (not sure what they stand for), CON+BREX+UKIP = 15,974, vs 13,826 for LDEM. Or 53.6% #Leave , 46.4% #Remain .

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 years

Congratulations to Deutsche Bank for coming up with a proposal that breaks just about every principle of good tax design: fairness. practicality, predictability, efficiency... 🙄

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Deutsche Bank Research: Tax home workers 'to help those who cannot'

Report says working from home should be taxed at 5% to help those whose jobs are under threat.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

11 months

This is the huge problem for the Bank of England (and the rest of us)... 👇 Core #inflation (excl. food and energy) is no longer just 'sticky' - it's actually heading in the wrong direction

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

FYI, the UK is continuing to roll out the #Covid #vaccines more rapidly than the EU. Indeed, the gap is widening. Breaking away from the EU's procurement and approval policies will not only save lives, but should also mean a quicker and stronger economic recovery than otherwise.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

"London loses position as most valuable European stock market" FYI, it would only take a tiny rise in the value of the pound (<1%) for London to regain the top spot. If/when that happens, I'm sure it will be reported with just as much fanfare... 😉 (1/3)

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London loses position as most valuable European stock market

Paris is now Europe's biggest stock market, overtaking London for the first time since records began in 2003.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

So, to sum up... One of the world's richest countries, which can comfortably borrow £400 billion at ultra-low interest rates, needs to save a few billion on foreign aid, just as it is about to chair the G7, host a global climate change conference, and launch 'Global Britain' 🤷‍♂️

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

2 years

This is NOT #trickledowneconomics ! #Trickledown (if it means anything) is about giving more money to rich people in the hope they will spend it (boosting demand). The #MiniBudget is about cutting taxes and other reforms to improve the *supply* side, create jobs, investment etc.

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

I'm a citizen of the United Kingdom. Charles is the King. He is therefore 'my King'. 🤷‍♂️

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 months

Crikey... 💥 Even the Scottish Fiscal Commission thinks that £45 million of the potential £53 million raised from an additional 1p on the top rate of income #tax will be lost in the first year due to behavioural changes (and the % lost will increase over time). #ScottishBudget

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

To be clear, even if the government doesn’t face the same financial constraints as a household, high public spending and borrowing has other risks, including the misallocation of resources - and inflation. But talk of ‘maxing out the credit card’ is just claptrap. (19/19)

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

Brexit, month 7

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 months

I've been trying to ignore this from Carol Vorderman @carolvorders but it's now got over 12k 'likes', so here goes... 🤓 Both the figures and (far more importantly) the narrative is wrong. Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks was £2,671.4 billion at the end of

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@carolvorders

Carol Vorderman

4 months

We've had 5000 days of Tory Rule today 😳 I've done some maths 🔹Since May 2010, the NATIONAL DEBT HAS INCREASED, on average, by a staggering £380 MILLION A DAY - EVERY SINGLE DAY FOR #5000DAYS Which begs the question.... Where has all our money gone? I wouldn't trust the

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Good example of the 'zombie statistics' still being trotted out against Liz Truss (I have others)... 👇 (£65bn was the amount that the #BoE said it was willing to commit to stabilise the gilt market. In the event, it spent about £19bn, on which it made a *profit* of about £4bn.)

@jdpoc

John O'Connell

1 year

“Woman who wiped £65 Billion off the British economy in a month, wants to have another crack at it, because she thinks she’s got the hang of it now.“

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

3 years

The only member of my family not devastated by #christmasiscancelled is the dog, who's just done the maths on the turkey... 🍗🍗

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Danny Blanchflower and Richard Murphy recommend low interest rates and money printing as the solution to a problem caused by low interest rates and money printing... 🤷‍♂️

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Slash interest rates and stop bond sales, ex-policymaker tells Bank of England

Exclusive: David Blanchflower urges rethink after collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and lifeline thrown to Credit Suisse

www.theguardian.com

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 month

Unfortunately, Liz couldn't find space to mention that the Allianz report also estimated that lower tariffs on other goods would cut import costs by £7bn and inflation by 0.6 percentage points, resulting in a net saving of £5bn and a reduction in overall #inflation of 0.4pp... 🤔

@LizWebsterSBF

Liz Webster

1 month

⚠️ New Brexit UK border controls will cost British biz £2bn and fuel higher inflation, new report warns UK-EU trade will be damaged as a result. ⚠️ The insurer Allianz Trade said the controls agreed under Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal could add 10% to import costs over the first

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

Usual points on the relatively downbeat #IMF forecasts for the UK economy in 2023... ❌ poor track record ❌ already out of date ❌ daft to focus on just one year ❌ little detail in the interim updates* *but of course this won't deter the usual suspects from blaming #Brexit !

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

1 year

💥 UK government borrowing in the financial year to date (ie. April to January) was £30.6 billion *lower* than forecast by the OBR. And this is before the full benefit of lower-than-expected #energy prices... #headroom #springbudget

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@julianHjessop

Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

5 years

OK, the last post from me today on #Nissan . This, from that infamous Brexiteer rag *the Financial Times*, explains the specific problems behind the decision on the X-Trail. If you still want to blame this on #Brexit , there's nothing more I can do for you.

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

6 months

FYI, the #Suffragettes resorted to direct action because they didn't have the vote. The morons of 'Just Stop Oil' don't have that excuse. Or any, really. (see also XR)

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Julian Jessop 🇬🇪 FRSA

4 months

"Sadiq Khan to attack #Brexit with new research on economic damage" 🤔 The claim here that UK GDP is already 6% smaller than if we were still in the EU is just another rerun of a 'doppelganger' model, so hardly 'new'. It is also fatally flawed... (1/3)

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Sadiq Khan to attack Brexit with new research on economic damage

London’s Labour mayor to call for debate on the case for rejoining the customs union and single market

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