I've talked to 50+ crypto projects in the last 10 days looking to hire a CMO or Head of Marketing.
They're not going to have an easy time.
Here's why hiring an all-star marketing leader won't fix your problems:
An $18 billion stablecoin is losing its dollar peg with all the magical chaos of algorithmic stables, with a dash of Bitcoin systemic risk drama.
Here's everything you need to know.
The $UST Depeg Thread:
👇
I just read FTX's Chapter 11 First Day Affidavit.
In it, the appointed restructuring CEO John Jay Ray III, who oversaw Enron's bankruptcy proceedings, calls FTX's case the worst of his career.
Its contents are shocking.
Here are the highlights:
👇
Celsius is one of the largest centralized gateways to crypto.
It raised $864m of venture capital and at one point custodied over $3 billion of funds for 1m+ customers.
As of today, it appears insolvent, and it's taking the whole crypto market with it.
The Celsius Thread:
👇
FTX was the world's 3rd largest crypto exchange.
Today it's said to be insolvent and in the midst of an acquisition by Binance.
Here's everything you need to know about Alameda Research and the collapse of FTX:
👇
In 2017, I interviewed with Elizabeth Holmes to be Head of Finance at Theranos.
I'm convinced I learned more in those 45 minutes than I did in 10 years of school and work.
Today, she reports to federal prison to serve out an 11 year sentence for fraud.
Time for a story 🧵:
No bullshit I think I just interviewed a North Korean hacker.
Terrifying, hilarious, and a reminder to be paranoid and triple-check your OpSec practices.
Here's how it went:
🇰🇵
In 2017, I interviewed with Elizabeth Holmes to be Head of Finance at Theranos.
I'm convinced I learned more in those 45 minutes than I did in 10 years of school and work.
So when I heard Elizabeth was on trial I couldn't help but recall that moment.
Time for a story 🧵 :
Elizabeth Holmes sentenced to 11 years for fraud.
Note that she never:
- cashed out stock
- built accounting backdoors
- took personal loans
- spent investor and customer money on penthouses and parties
SBF will burn.
The 20th largest bank in the US was just closed by California state regulators.
Silicon Valley Bank was rumored to be in a sale process to protect its depositors.
Now, it's the second biggest banking failure in US history.
All because of a secular bet against rising rates:
people asking for a tl;dr of the tl;dr of celsius:
- celsius took people's $ETH
- they put it in a place where it's stuck for a year
- people asked for it back
- now they're like "ah, shoot, gosh darn it"
Days like today I go back to the One True Coin.
Forget the battle-lines of maxi-ism for a second.
Bitcoin just works.
There are no ponzinomics, recursive token dynamics, locked this staked that.
It has no "utility" except being uncensorable money.
It's why we're here.
Ray opens with his experience, and then immediately condemns FTX as the worst case of his career:
"Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here."
Do you yield farm / LP?
It's sold as a passive strategy, but farming is the most nuanced, unintuitive, and poorly understood activity in Defi.
It's more like putting on a short-term trade than buying fixed-income.
🧑🌾 Yet Another Guide to Yield Farming
Part 1: Impermanent Loss
The Starbucks x Polygon loyalty announcement is so boring it's revolutionary.
A non-speculative, 1:1 drop-in replacement for typical loyalty programs.
That's exactly why it's a huge deal:
tl;dr FTX is worse than Enron:
- run by SBF + a few insiders using Signal
- committing immense fraud
- and no sense of bank accounts, employees, cash on hand, liquidity management, digital asset custody, cybersecurity practices, or any form of corporate control or governance
It also reveals SBF--definitively--to be a liar and a fraud.
A team of the most experienced restructuring experts in the world under penalty of perjury have submitted to the courts a document that shows nearly EVERY public statement SBF has made in the last week to be a lie.
tl;dr
$UST is 100 magic dollars backed by 20 bitcorns and 80 magic beans, but some people don't think it's worth 100 real dollars, so LFG is selling bitcorns to buy more magic dollars to convince people they're worth 100 real dollars, all so the magic bean holders don't get sad
Yesterday Nate Chastain, former product manager at Opensea, was indicted for making ~$40,000 insider-trading NFTs.
He's facing up to *40 years in prison.*
DOJ is coming for your ass too.
Here's what you need to know to get smart on this surprising case and not go to jail:
Biggest launch in Defi history?
@feiprotocol
raised $1.2B from its Genesis event, and the $FEI - $TRIBE pool is
#1
on Uniswap with $2.6 BILLION in liquidity.
Simultaneously, retail investors got predictably rekt.
Here's how the drama unfolded:
Today we launched Aztec Connect, the VPN for Ethereum.
I just used it to get some $stETH on mainnet Curve for $1.50 in fees, with complete privacy.
Fully private DeFi, with huge cost savings.
Why I think our private rollup is ridiculously bullish for Ethereum:
Here's how it works:
- FTX creates $FTT
- Alameda buys or premines $FTT at super low price
- FTX pumps $FTT
- Alameda posts $FTT back to FTX as collateral, borrowing "real" assets from FTX's customer deposits
In sum, a crack team of restructuring experts (arguably the best in the world) is tackling arguably the worst and most disastrous financial fraud in history.
Worse, they claim, than Enron.
This expertise is likely costing the FTX entities >$1 million PER DAY.
If you think of personality falling on a spectrum:
- One side being fully authentic
- The other being fully manufactured
The spectrum curves around like a horseshoe, such that the ends look remarkably similar.
For the life of me I could not tell which end she fell on.
I was stunned.
1st reaction: "Me?? A newly minted business school graduate? To functionally be CFO?"
2nd reaction: "But...why not me? I can save this company."
3rd reaction: "Holy fuck this person is a sociopath."
4th reaction: "...I want her powers."
For those wondering how FTX printed money out of thin air:
You have to understand what "low float, high FDV" means and why playing a market manipulation game with $FTT was key to this whole mess.
👇
The recent discourse on airdrops upsets me deeply, and probably not for the reason you think.
I personally understand the difficulty of managing users who demand compensation for their participation.
I've been through it and it isn't easy.
But--guess what?
That's the deal.
I didn't take the job. But what did I learn?
1) People need to feel needed.
We all crave affirmation, attention, and love from authority. We project our desire for parental affection on people all around us.
We want to be blessed. We want to kiss the ring.
In a year of turmoil the last 24 hours have been the worst thing that has happened for the crypto space, by orders.
It underscores the need again for transparent, overcollateralized systems that can deleverage in an orderly manner.
It ironically underscores the need for crypto.
At his side are Sullivan & Cromwell, one of the leading restructuring law firms, and Alvarez & Marsal, one of the leading restructuring advisory firms.
Ray's statements are given under penalty of perjury.
That is all to say, this is a Serious Investigation by Serious Adults.
He then identifies 4 business siloes within FTX:
- WRS Silo (FTX US, Ledger X, and affiliates)
- Alameda Silo (Alameda Research LLC)
- Ventures Silo (FTX Ventures and affiliates)
- Dotcom Silo (FTX . com)
He makes clear: "Each of the Silos was controlled by Mr. Bankman-Fried."
I was stunned.
1st reaction: "Me?? A newly minted business school graduate? To functionally be CFO?"
2nd reaction: "But...why not me? I can save this company."
3rd reaction: "Holy fuck this person is a sociopath."
4th reaction: "...I want her powers."
If you think of personality falling on a spectrum:
- One side being fully authentic
- The other being fully manufactured
The spectrum curves around like a horseshoe, such that the ends look remarkably similar.
For the life of me I could not tell which end she fell on.
"Crypto has no use case."
Replacing all financial markets...?
"But what can you BUY with it?"
Services: savings, loans, brokera--
"Can I buy a sandwich with Bitcoin??"
I mean, no, but why would that be the most importa--
"NO SANDWICHES?? I KNEW IT WAS ALL SPECULATION."
Immediately I'm like, this motherfucker sounds like a Bond villain.
I'm picturing a dude whose arm is actually a laser cannon and his eyeball is made of plutonium or some shit.
"The world will see the great result from my hands" ???
Who fucking talks like that?
"And I want you to know, if there were *any* role at the company you might be interested in--operations, product--I would be happy to have you.
If not, please let me know when you're in the Bay again. I'd love to buy you a drink."
The next one'll be on me, Elizabeth.
fin
In ¶55 John Jay Ray III basically says:
"Uhm, I've heard of the FTX US auditors. The FTX Int'l auditors I uh, let's just say they're best known for having an office in the metaverse."
And in ¶56 he essentially says that the audited financials are also not to be trusted.
He immediately communicates distrust of any furnished financials.
FTX US's balance sheet shows $1.36 billion in assets as of Sept 30th.
"However, because this balance sheet was produced while the Debtors were controlled by Mr. Bankman-Fried, I do not have confidence in it"
I didn't take the job. But what did I learn?
1) People need to feel needed.
We all crave affirmation, attention, and love from authority. We project our desire for parental affection on people all around us.
We want to be blessed. We want to kiss the ring.
So now back to the Luna Foundation Guard:
$UST has the same dynamics as many other algo-stables, except in addition to the "algo" part they also have LFG.
In other words, UST is stabilized by:
1) Contracts.
2) The gigantic gravity well created by the size of Do Kwon's nuts.
¶59 Human Resources: The entire FTX Group didn't have any employee management whatsoever, incapable of furnishing:
- a list of employees
- the terms of their agreements
- each employee's status
Celsius. Babel. Voyager. BlockFi.
Centralized crypto fintechs are in deep trouble and rumored to be facing insolvency.
The former two froze user withdrawals.
The latter two received bailouts from FTX.
Why? What gives? What's going on?
Thanks for following along.
If you enjoyed this and want to retain access to my writing in case Twitter stops working, sign up for my e-mail list
@fortyiq
here:
¶46 explains there was roughly no corporate governance:
"I understand that many entities, for example, never had board meetings."
¶50: "The FTX Group did not maintain centralized control of its cash" -- they didn't even keep a running list of all their bank accounts!
"And I want you to know, if there were *any* role at the company you might be interested in--operations, product--I would be happy to have you.
If not, please let me know when you're in the Bay again. I'd love to buy you a drink."
The next one'll be on me, Elizabeth.
John Jay Ray III, the appointed overseer, is one of the most experienced restructuring executives in the world, having overseen Enron and a slew of other high-profile bankruptcies.
Also: if you're a real person working on real problems,
@aztecnetwork
is hiring:
- Cryptography
- Full stack eng
- BD, community, ops
Requirements:
- World class at what you do
- Passionate about privacy
- Not a state-sponsored cyberterrorist
✌️
First off, some context.
In a bankruptcy the first day affidavit is a comprehensive summary of how the entity got to this point and why it's requesting relief via corporate restructuring.
¶71 The investigative team includes:
- a former Director of Enforcement at the SEC
- a former Director of Enforcement at the CFTC
- a former Chief of the Complex Frauds and Cybercrime Unit of the US Attorney’s Office for SDNY
In other words, the A-team of bankruptcies.
Call me crazy, but I think the full court press media effort to make SBF look like he made an honest to goodness mistake rather than committing gargantuan fraud is coordinated.
"the secret exemption of Alameda from certain aspects of FTX . com’s auto-liquidation protocol."
Theories that Alameda was liquidation-exempt on FTX--seem confirmed by Ray's initial investigation.
Roughly it says, "Look: we owe a lot of people a lot of money, and we don't know exactly know where it all is, but we're looking."
It's supposed to be part of the initial Chapter 11 filing (hence "first day").
That was on November 11th.
Today is November 17th.
¶65 Digital Asset Custody:
SBF and Gary Wang controlled all of FTX's digital asset personally, using a GROUP EMAIL ACCOUNT to share private keys, software to "conceal the misuse of customer funds," and the big one:
Switching into crypto is one of the most asymmetric things you can do for your career.
Why? There's a low-status moat around it.
Cross the moat and you'll experience less competition, more career acceleration, and highly asymmetric opportunities:
And that's before we're really into the bankruptcy proceedings!
This is just the initial *first look* investigation into all the shenanigans happening inside of FTX.
See here for the full affidavit:
As the interview drones on, I become increasingly aware of one fact:
Nothing about her indicates she was born on Earth. She deftly wound her way through my concerns with utter confidence:
tl;dr
- CZ dumps $FTT
- Alameda faces external margin calls, looks to FTX for liquidity
- FTX depositors have withdrawn; piggy bank is broken
- FTX's assets are loans Alameda can't repay, against real customer liabilities
- FTX in the hole for billions
- CZ buys FTX
But then he signs off the cover letter with this:
"The world will see the great result from my hands."
...
THE WORLD WILL SEE THE GREAT RESULT FROM MY HANDS
🚩🚩🚩
¶76 Creating some distance between him and SBF:
"Mr. Bankman-Fried, currently in the Bahamas, continues to make erratic and misleading public statements. Mr. Bankman-Fried...recently stated to a reporter on Twitter: “F*** regulators they make everything worse” 💀
Ray notes in ¶66 that $372 million in unauthorized transfers happened on the petition date (the FTX "hack"), but further that $300 million in FTT tokens were also minted AFTER THE PETITION DATE by an unauthorized source:
But even worse than the pseudo-crypto vibe is Celsius' dangerous use of meaningless platitudes and strident anti-bank rhetoric:
- Banking is Broken
- Unbank Yourself
- Replacing Wall Street with Blockchain
- 99% vs. 1%
All taken from their website and whitepaper.
2) Utter dedication is terrifying and seductive.
I am convinced Elizabeth didn't profit to the level of an Adam Neumann or Jeff Skilling or Bernie Madoff.
If she was a fraud, then she was her own victim.
Near the end, she gave up nearly all her equity to prove her commitment.
The vast, vast majority of people don't understand how $OHM works or why it exists or why it's down 90% from highs.
So here we go:
DeFi has and always will be about the war for decentralized liquidity.
He who controls the liquidity controls the universe.
Hearing from a few teams who are scrambling to get a marketing strategy in place before we go parabolic.
You're fine. If you're struggling with narrative and positioning here's what to do in the next 30 days.
Plus 1 thing you absolutely should NOT do:
Postscript:
"Bobby" updated his Github. It points to a completely new account now with more commits.
I'm sure these guys are learning, adapting, getting smarter.
Thankfully, they can't fix how fucking out of touch and incompetent they are.
We just need to stay savvy.
fin
He then goes onto recount in ¶44 SBF's negotiations with attorneys and his father around filing Chapter 11.
Which in his interview with Vox, SBF stated as his biggest regret, claiming that everything would be "70% fixed right now" if he hadn't.
I fundamentally don't understand the premise of play-to-earn and the presumption that gamers want to get compensated for their time.
I want to compensate YOU, the gamemaker.
I want to pay you $500 for:
- a console
- two copies of Zelda
- the right to paraglide down from a…
3) Stories can raise armies.
Who knows in the end what was ultimately fact or fiction?
Elizabeth was able to be a black hole for talent and capital, all because of an elaborate and *compelling* story.
In June 2017, Fortress lent Theranos $100 million backed by its IP.
The "Okay?" is a DEAD FUCKING GIVEAWAY this guy is Korean.
How do I know?
Because every single one of my friend's mom's would say that shit right before they gave me a piping hot bowl of galbitang.
"This is very delicious. Eat quickly before it gets cold.
Okay?"
You've probably heard about Ethereum Layer 2 solutions and how they promise to scale the Ethereum network and reduce gas fees.
It's a little confusing.
That's why I'm here to explain ETH L2 to you like a mechanic from Brooklyn:
🧑🔧
1a) The LFG also seems aware & intent on buying $BTC back at low basis.
There's a win where:
✅ $BTC gets pressured to $30K
✅ $UST peg restores
✅ LFG buys back into $BTC at lower basis
The biggest Defi launch ever seems like it'll be a multi-billion dollar teaching lesson for retail:
- DYOR
- Don't ape
- Whales eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast
$FEI $TRIBE
@feiprotocol
Worst of all is the in-your-face focus on safety, security, transparency, and most of all, trust:
- "military grade security"
- "withdraw your crypto at any time"
- "keep your crypto safe"
- "next-level transparency"
- "why trust Celsius"
All from their own marketing copy.
An address is an account that contains your funds.
A private key is used to spend the funds in that account.
A wallet is a safe that contains your private keys.
A seed phrase is the master key to that safe.
None of this is intuitive.
And therein lies the problem:
1) the promise of sky-high yields
combined with
2) a veneer of legitimacy (regulated onramp, premium access for accredited investors, regulator logos)
Cleared the way for Celsius to pursue truly degenerate trading strategies with investor funds.
so the media is really going to turn
a disheveled amphetamine addict ran one of the biggest frauds in financial history from a $39 million penthouse where he was sexually involved with his top employees
into
very bad chinese man ruins nice MIT boy's company
mm oke
Two obvious questions:
1) if something is paying you 20% risk-free, why not just borrow a ton of money and make it pay you like, 100%+?
Oh uhm, that's exactly what Abracadabra / $MIM's degenbox did:
@MakerDAO
@iearnfinance
@LidoFinance
@CurveFinance
So let's plate this delightful dish of degenerate delicacies:
1) Celsius opened a bunch of loans
2) They took user deposits and traded them for $stETH
3) They now owe a lot of money and don't have the reserves to pay them back
Celsius is insolvent.
Celsius $CEL is functionally insolvent on their ETH position.
Only 27% of Celsius' ETH is liquid, the rest is either stETH or staked in ETH2, so inaccessible for at least 1 year.
If withdrawals continue at the current pace of...(1/x)
I'm in a telegram group for Harvard Business School students and alumni in crypto.
I asked ChatGPT to write me a script comparing messages sent per month vs. Bitcoin price.
Ladies and gentlemen, I'm happy to announce -- we're nowhere near the top.
Let me slow that one down:
- $LUNA price high
- $LUNA burned, many $UST minted
- $LUNA's price fall
- $UST redeemed for many $LUNA
👉 That is bad mmkay?
So here's what happened to $FEI in plain English:
You thought you were buying a dollar for 50 cents but instead you paid $1.01 only to get $0.95 and now if you try to sell it you'll end up with $0.60.
lol
1) Our whole world is built on trust. If someone shows us their resume and Github, we believe it.
2) Smart contract risk is overrated. Anything can be an attack vector: hiring, events, travel, etc.
3) Do not download attachments. Isolate your wallet to its own machine. Etc.
We all know Stablecoins Require Utility™ to maintain demand and defend their peg.
So where does $UST get utility?
Simple, Anchor Protocol.
Anchor Protocol is (nominally) a money market, but the important tl;dr is it pays you 19.5% to stake $UST.
The EVM has won.
It's the dominant smart contract execution architecture, and Solidity is the dominant smart contracting language.
But how will Solidity devs choose between the 20+ major EVM implementations that are out there?
It's worth noting you can always redeem 1 $UST for $1 worth of $LUNA, even if $UST is worth <$1.
It's meant to be a stabilizing mechanism:
If $UST is trading at $0.99, arbitrageurs can buy it and redeem it for $1 of $LUNA.