Excited to share that my book on technological revolutions and power transitions will be published in
@PrincetonUPress
in August.
Available to preorder ($30 paperback):
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Some groovy personal news: I'll be joining George Washington University as an Assistant Professor of Political Science, starting in August 2022. Very grateful for support from communities at
@Politics_Oxford
@GovAI_
@StanfordCISAC
@StanfordHAI
, esp. Duncan Snidal and
@AllanDafoe
.
Excited to share my Deciphering China's AI Dream report, a 6 month effort at analyzing how all the pieces fit in China's AI strategy. Very grateful to
@Miles_Brundage
@EBKania
@DanitGal
@FHIOxford
GovAI Program + many others. Main takeaways below:
My first solo-authored publication is now available open access in
@RIPEJournal
!
*The diffusion deficit in scientific and technological power: re-assessing China’s rise*
Thanks to everyone who gave feedback on & reviewed this piece.
Key takeaways below:
Excited to share my first journal article!
*The Logic of Strategic Assets: From Oil to AI* (w/
@AllanDafoe
)
Since Fall 2018, this project has gone through many rounds of helpful feedback (& rejections). Glad it's now available open access:
Key takeaways:
Pumped to share a new
@GovAI_
report by me &
@jennywxiao
on recent trends in China's large language model landscape: . We study a sample of 26 large-scale pre-trained AI models developed by Chinese labs, marking the first in-depth analysis of this topic.
Finally got my copy of a 500pg book published by Tencent and a govt think tank on AI policy and governance. What
@AndrewYNg
said about AI research may be equally true for AI policy. Chinese thinkers know a lot about Western scholarship but the converse doesn't hold.
Tired: China had first AI plan ever + are going to rule the world
Wired: Both the White House/Dept of Defense had already issued AI plans
Inspired: DARPA's Strategic Computing Prog. (1983-1992) massively promoted AI. Stop viewing ChinAI in a vacuum w/o historical/intl context.
New article in
@ISQ_Jrnl
: How do tech revolutions produce economic power transitions? I propose a causal path around general-purpose technologies, which demand different institutional shifts than standard focus on monopolizing innovation in key sectors.
Excited to be named an AI2050 early career fellow! Thanks to Schmidt Sciences for funding my work on AI governance and the role of int'l orgs in improving China's safety standards in other powerful technologies (e.g., aviation, nuclear power).
Thread that gives a glimpse into a Chinese MILLENNIAL's phone: asked friend who studies at Lanzhou Uni. (Gansu province) to share how she organizes her phone apps. Category
#1
: Social -- Wechat/QQ (first 2) connect friends, Weibo (3) for sharing views, Zhihu (last) is Q&A forum
We have 1000+ profiles of
@elonmusk
(did you hear about his baby's name?!) but somehow there is not a single English-language profile piece (> 8 paragraphs) on Morris Chang, the founder of TSMC. In this week's
#ChinAI
@JoyDantongMa
and I rectify that gap:
I've finished a translation of a deeply troubling article on: China's securitization of Xinjiang, Leon Technology (立昂技术) as a key actor (scant coverage of them), and deeply troubling details on why face recognition/AI tech plays a key role...(thread)
I'm proud to call Sri a Microsoft colleague. Thank you
@RepKevinYoder
for taking the time to hear our employees stories, and for your commitment to eliminating
#percountry
limits.
#HR392
I'm recruiting a 2-year postdoc to work on global gov. of emerging tech, w/ focus on China's int'l engagement. Based in GW's polisci dept & affiliated w/ Inst. of Security & Conflict Studies. Deadline is March 25. Please share the link to apply:
Finally getting around to reading the much-recommended book The Party by
@mcgregorrichard
on how the Chinese Communist Party actually rules. Will collect interesting points in this thread for those who want to follow along and for my own public accountability to finish this book
The Chinese AI unicorn Megvii (旷视) has filed a 557-page IPO prospectus () on the HK exchange (in their words: "opening ourselves up to the world" [p. 3]). They are expected to raise $500m - $1b. Here's some key takeaways from my morning power-skim:
Pastor's sermon this morning was all about how how advances in AI will challenge our notion of what makes human beings special, making our souls the core of our exceptionalism as a species. If you can't escape the AI buzz at church, where can anyone find safe refuge?
Imagine an article about America citing a random Twitter user as supporting evidence for a point ----> From this Economist article from 2019: "As one Weibo user put it after Chang’e-4’s landing, 'China has made history! Half of the Moon will be ours.'"
Problem: If at least 50% of your news about China's tech scene isn't coming from reading Chinese media/think tanks/academics, then you're missing a lot of the story. Solution: subscribe to the
#ChinAI
newsletter. Latest issue on AI and privacy
My patented 2-step guide to reading China-related news. 1) read. 2) ask yourself: how would I think about this development's effect on people if I didn't view everything through the lens of US-China great power competition. There it is, that's the secret
In pre-term email, Magdalen reassures students that the "college has had several serious challenges before in its great history and always comes through in the end. There were five major epidemics in the 1500s and we managed to adapt then as we are doing now." Weird flex but OK!
My dad is a leader in our Chinese evangelical church in Iowa City - he tells me that visiting scholars from China are now being warned by the Chinese govt not to go to church in the US. Anyone have any additional related info to this?
Going to collect interesting examples of English-Chinese language asymmetry in understanding of global tech landscape in this thread, showcasing the diversity and depth of English coverage that orgs and individuals in China are translating into Chinese and commenting on
Shenzhen is first to pilot facial recognition tech in verifying students for the gaokao test (China's college entrance exam). This stuff is moving fast folks
#ChinAI
From my thesis research on China's soft power efforts in Africa.
Red = countries in which the plurality of respondents chose China as the best model for development.
Blue = U.S. as best model.
Yellow = South Africa
Green = former colonial power
Source:
@afrobarometer
2014/2015
One of the biggest problems in tech + politics analysis is the "technology abstraction problem," esp re: AI, now a catch-all term. This is also the case for "Chips" -we need to better specify the tech (eg this link divides China's "chips" into 60 subtypes)
Huawei Noah's Ark Lab launches "AI poet": writing high quality classical Chinese poetry with a generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) -- "first to employ GPT in developing a poetry generation system"
Stay tuned for more coverage in next week's
#ChinAI
Since these have drawn some interest lately, a short thread with my informal translation of "Chapter 25: 23 'Strong Regulations' for AI" in the Tencent 500 pg book on AI policy and strategy. Midway through the chapter the writers reference the Asilomar AI Principles
The US doesn't need a "National AI Strategy." It's a fluffy way for Trump admin to self-congratulate/pretend it's doing stuff while ignoring more important/difficult areas where gov. can play a role: revive the Office of Tech Assessment, invest in STEM edu., immigration reform
My latest piece w/
@pstAsiatech
and
@SammSacks
is on China's efforts to set international standards for AI - thanks to
@gwbstr
and New America DigiChina for publishing the analysis + translation of China's White Paper on AI Standards key takeaways follow:
No we aren't. See my attempt to actually assess U.S. and China AI capabilities using a systematic framework that checks against the tech abstraction problem and cherry-picked statistics:
Daily reminder that the ornithology of China-watchers is a diverse field. "China doves" can take"China hawkish" approaches, "China hawks" can push"China dovish" means, some are GMO-like hawk-dove hybrids, others are China egrets, personally I identify as a China Iowan goldfinch
To be fair, this week's newsletter held
@FT
to a standard that 95% of other newsrooms can't meet either so maybe I have a naive Aaron Sorkin Newsroom type belief in what today's newsrooms should aspire to...
Sneak peak of this week's
#ChinAI
feature translation which shatters the hype over China's Tencent as an AI and data giant/powerhouse --- a Tencent insider asks: has anyone noticed that Tencent hasn't had a CTO since 2014?
Chinese phone cradle for boosting your phone's daily step count. Some insurance companies in China allow people who consistently reach a certain daily step count to get discounted health insurance premiums.
I very much doubt that this camera is equipped with facial recognition capabilities. I get the fear and there's obviously the general risks of CCTV, but let's get the facts right.
In today's edition of "this stuff is moving fast folks" - here's
@globeandmail
story on Hangzhou No. 11 High School, which has equipped classrooms with cameras that track the facial expressions and emotions of students to make sure they're paying attention
Exhibit
#567
of what I call the "AI abstraction problem." This magic buzzword has become so slippery that it is no longer analytically coherent nor useful. More here:
The idea that TikTok's algorithm could be used to enhance China's weapons systems is one of the craziest justifications I've seen for targeting the company, and I've seem A LOT
Here's a prelim. list of issues w/ Peter Thiel's Google hitpiece that somehow got published as NYT oped:
1) Getting basic facts wrong: China's constitution doesn't "mandate that all research done in China be shared with the PLA" h/t
@lorandlaskai
Thread: One of my goals is to question techno-nationalist assumptions and ideologies about
#ChinAI
. Let's take this concept of "China's AI talent" as something that a more techno-global view can help unpack. One simplified understanding (and one I share) is: China's AI talent...
First issue of the weekly ChinAI Newsletter is out! It includes links to the translations of the Tencent book and China's White Paper on AI standardization - make sure it doesn't get stuck in your promotions tab! Subscription link in my bio
#ChinAI
This week's
#ChinAI
marks 3 straight weeks of contributor-driven issues: . Want to help make it four? This week I'm going to translate this recent special report on the abuses of facial recognition by "The Beijing Times" .
Just watched
#TheFarewell
w/ my fam, hard to explain its wonderful sorrowful beauty. 2 things I know are true: 1) the world will be a better place if more folks watch it 2) I can't wait to see all the future stories people w/ first names like Lulu & last names like Wang will tell
One quick and dirty method I use to check against hype and lack of technical nuance in my writing about AI + politics: Count up the number of times I use AI as an adjective and try to get it to zero
Today's
#ChinAI
newsletter has best Chinese-lang. reporting on the Sensenet data leak (w/ glaring caveat that Xinjiang isn't mentioned), incl. what was leaked, where it came from, how it was leaked, Re-ID systems, & data sec issues w/ Chinese AI companies
Slept in way later than I should have, watched way too many NFL and MLB highlight/analysis videos on YouTube's endless loop instead of working, dropped and pushed back some projects today. Made a tiny bit of progress on research. Give yourself a little grace!
"Trump noted of an unnamed country that the attendee said was clearly China, 'almost every student that comes over to this country is a spy.' -- Our President's sad, flawed, and dangerous view on the 350k+ Chinese intl students in the U.S.
Congrats to
@kaifulee
and his collaborator
@mattsheehan88
on the launch of their AI Superpowers book today - a must-read for understanding the role of AI in the U.S.-China relationship. Order on Amazon here:
Was great to work together again with
@JoyDantongMa
on this week's
#ChinAI
which translates and unpacks a report on the global AI industry by CAICT, a major Chinese govt think tank:
Somehow 100+ people in this world pay to read the
#ChinAI
newsletter. These folks subscribe w/ no expectation of exclusive content (each
#ChinAI
issue is open to all). Their support goes toward a cast of contributors & my gummy worm addiction. Join them:
Big ups to
@KelseyTuoc
for this balanced, well-researched (25 hyperlinks to sources!) piece that deconstructs Peter Thiel's oped in the NYT last week -- quotes my arguments defending Google/Microsoft overseas labs against claims of "anti-Americanism":
Couple semi-formed takes on this: 1) the overhyping of a rising Asian country's AI abilities isnt new - falls into narrative that goes back to 1976; 2) as was case w/ Japan, China's ability to catch up in AI will have less to do w/ AI spec. policies + more w/ macroecon factors
Kindleberger back in 1976!!describes reports warning of an Asian country rapidly catching up to US lead in artificial intelligence. Sound familiar to anyone?
Microsoft (collaborative effort between Beijing and Redmond lab) achieves human parity on automatic Chinese to English news translation - advances in machine translation lately have been incredible
#ChinAI
Still, it's a nice way to overview the Chinese app ecosystem. One thing that's striking is the lack of any apps (at least from what I see) from non-Chinese companies, perhaps an indication of the growing bifurcation of app/tech ecosystems. What does everyone else think?
Since its publication last month, my article on China's diffusion deficit in scientific and technological power has become the 3rd most-read article published by
@RIPEJournal
in the last year.
I appreciate everyone who's *diffusing* these ideas!
My first solo-authored publication is now available open access in
@RIPEJournal
!
*The diffusion deficit in scientific and technological power: re-assessing China’s rise*
Thanks to everyone who gave feedback on & reviewed this piece.
Key takeaways below:
This sounds like a very smart approach that avoids traps of mimicking China's industrial policy - focus on early stage R&D + standards dev, but missing probably most important aspect: making sure we retain and welcome talent from around world through immigration reform
The Xilinx purchase of DeePhi is great example of why the "US + China + competition in X related to AI = simplistic clickbait story about US-China arms race" formula misses so so much. It's a story involving nations besides just the US/China, strategic alliances, tech standards..
Americans underestimate the degree of divergence b/t European approaches toward China and the current US mindset. Not everyone thinks we're in a "tech Cold War," and even at the height of real Cold War there were significant disagreements over tech exports to Soviets (see: COCOM)
Here's the full text of Xi Jinping's congratulatory letter to the 2018 World AI Conference which took place today in Shanghai. Seems like "人工智能赋能新时代" (A new era of AI-Enablement/Empowerment) is the buzzword of the day
#ChinAI
What's especially sad about this -- if it's true some visiting scholars are being warned to not go to churches abroad -- is that churches are often the most welcoming places for these scholars, where they find a home, where they make lasting friendships
My dad is a leader in our Chinese evangelical church in Iowa City - he tells me that visiting scholars from China are now being warned by the Chinese govt not to go to church in the US. Anyone have any additional related info to this?
If you are researching China's tech scene and you can't name a favorite journalist who writes in Chinese, then you are seriously doing it wrong. I'm awed by talent of 四月(Internet name) of 机器之心(Synced is English portal). Here's 四月latest on Megvii:
Hey
@AndrewYang
and
#YangGang
: new research from
@baobaofzhang
shows workers underestimate the impact of automation on their job security, misdirecting blame to immigrants and outsourcing/driving support for right-wing populism.
Last month, I testified on this paper to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. See below C-SPAN video w/ good debates b/t commissioners and me as well as starred timestamps on my points. I'm grateful to the
@USCC_GOV
for the invitation.
No disrespect to English-language coverage of China's AI scene, but this week's
#ChinAI
piece was the best I've read at unpacking the buzzword of "smart manufacturing." As always, this is a living doc & folks are already adding comments and corrections:
New piece from
@jennywxiao
,
@jjding99
and me pushing back on the claim that we can't regulate AI because that would just let China pull ahead. This is not a good argument!
4 reasons why, though first a caveat: 🧵
UK report on use of AI in public service delivery yesterday - even those working closely w/ UK gov on AI policy, including the Turing Institute & Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation, expressed frustration at lack of transparency esp re: surveillance tech
There are two types of people in the world. People who don't believe in miracles and people who know that Avatar: The Last Airbender aired for three seasons on Nickelodeon.
About a year and a half ago we at
@FHIOxford
had the chance to hear
@mattsheehan88
give a sneak peak of some of the ideas on this book in lunch seminar. Excited that the office version of the book has arrived and can't wait to dig in!
The
@cognition_x
team is hosting "The Festival of All Things AI" in London this June 11-12 where I'll be talking about
#ChinAI
. If you’d like to attend, use my code for a free expo pass. Code: cx18jeffding3xp0
#CogX18
Register here:
Who among us has not deeply ached to read a 10,000 word data-packed thinkpiece that lays out a pathway for China to upgrade its chip industry? A Chinese chip industry insider emphasizes the role of AI and more in this week's
#ChinAI
feature translation:
This table explains how, of the four key components for developing AI, China only has a lead in one (data), and lags far behind the US in the other three.
We severely underestimate the influence of scifi books and TV in shaping the frames of reference and overall milieu surrounding strategic tech like AI. Read 100 articles about China's AI policy or Read the Three Body Problem by Liu Cixin (China's preeminent scifi writer)
If you listen to the first
#ChinAI
podcast with
@r_zwetsloot
and give me sharp feedback, I solemnly swear that by the next episode I will: 1) stop saying "shoutout" so much, 2) stop saying "dive deep" so much, 3) come up with an intro and outro jingle
FHI is seeking 2 project managers to advance our mission. We are looking for pro-active and driven people who are keen to advance FHI's mission to ensure a long flourishing future. To know more and apply for these positions, visit:
Every article in the recent issue of《腾云》Tengyun magazine (Tencent's culture and tech magazine) is about data protection. Cover article headline: "'China needs its own data protection scheme."
Wow,
@andybkennedy
's book on globalization of innovation b/t US + India/China is one of the best things I've read all year. Rigorous process tracing of how key domestic interest groups shape openness to innovation. Most impressive thing? Only 169 pgs of text (+100pgs of sources)
Glad people are circling back to this long 10,000 word
#ChinAI
translation of one expert's take on a grand strategy for China's chip industry. Definitely worth a read when you have a free half hour.
Looking forward to talking with
@SammSacks
and
@tsu_jing
tomorrow about AI and the "China Challenge." See:
Part of the
@NCUSCR
China Town Hall event which is bringing the conversation about US-China relations to 80+ local communities across the states
The more I read tech policy scholarship the more I find myself aligning with Grubler 1988, p. 6: "The author is personally skeptical about technology 'planning,' forecasting, and selection by central authority."
This is a long shot but I believe in the power of crowds: Has anyone come across Chinese-language sites for Chinese immigrants/expats (e.g. wenxuecheng) that present views that aren't plagued with anti-blackness? Trying to reach parents in ways other than shouting matches
Looking forward to presenting a summary of my dissertation on tech revolutions and power transitions at tomorrow's CISAC seminar. Glad to be joined by
@JoshAGoldstein
who will present on interstate influence operations. Link to register below:
JOIN US: Wed. June 2 at 11:30 AM Pacific Time, seminar with CISAC fellows Jeff Ding and Josh Goldstein on “Technology and International Security: From Interstate Influence Operations to Technological Revolutions and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers.”
Rarely plug
#ChinAI
issues here now but especially proud of this issue. Feature translation on Douyu's (China's Twitch) open source microservices framework & reflections on how a similar microservices approach could improve coverage of US-China relations:
If I could go back and rewrite the China AI Dream report, I would place much less emphasis on the Chinese govt and much more on Chinese companies, important labs/researchers, and the public as key actors, this week's
#ChinAI
newsletter sheds light on this:
This week's
#ChinAI
newsletter focused on the prospects of China militarizing AI technologies - one that will be informed by the broader effort of civil-military fusion and questions of AI ethics esp. regarding autonomous weapons: Subscription link in bio!
Google recently launched a drawing game (Cai Hua Xiao Ge 猜画小歌) as a mini WeChat app, which has gone viral in China - users draw an object Google's neural network attempts to recognize, per this week's
@GGVCapital
newsletter --another step in Google's return to China?
#ChinAI