Justyna Gotkowska @jgotkowska Twitter profile

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Strong words from Latvian defence minister @Pabriks on 🇩🇪: The Baltic region was the most 🇩🇪friendly. The trust to Germany are now closed to zero. A German Baltic policy doesn’t exist. If 🇩🇪 don’t want this trust turn into mistrust,it needs to change its policies substantially.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

„The worst thing Western leaders could come up with is calling Putin every few hours. It is these calls that encourage him to new atrocities. On the contrary, he should be left in a vacuum. No calls. And when he calls - do not answer. This is what really scares him. 100%”

Андрей Мальгин

@andrey_malgin

2 years

Худшее, что могли придумать западные лидеры, - это названивать Путину каждые несколько часов. Именно эти звонки поощряют его на новые зверства. Наоборот, надо оставить его в вакууме. Никаких звонков. И когда сам позвонит - не отвечать. Вот это его реально испугает. Зассыт 100%.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

As this thread is making the rounds on Twitter and spreads disinformation, here’s how the story went.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Bardzo mocne przemówienie Scholza. Odwrócenie niemieckiej retoryki o 180 stopni. 24.02.2022 punktem zwrotnym - świat nie będzie taki sam po tej dacie. Wojna jest katastrofą dla 🇺🇦 i będzie katastrofą dla 🇷🇺

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

The chairman of the Committee on European Affairs in the Bundestag @ToniHofreiter says that he has proved information that Spain was willing to provide Ukraine with its Leopard 2 tanks but was hindered from doing that by Germany.

Markus Feldenkirchen

@MFeldenkirchen

2 years

„Ich hab da sehr belastbare Informationen.“ Verhindert die Bundesregierung spanische Panzerlieferungen an die Ukraine? Spannende Diskussion zwischen Anton Hofreiter und Ralf Stegner, heute Abend im ⁦ @derspiegel ⁩ „Spitzengespräch“ auf

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Scholz would actually “do better” without sending same weird messages on a press conference claiming that 🇩🇪 is doing the same as others (the US & UK) at the time when everyone in Germany and beyond is expecting less such self-satisfied talk and more on the table.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

1/Liebes Deutschland, ein 🧶 aus der Ostflanke. Wir haben uns über die angekündigte Zeitenwende in Berlin gefreut - über die Sanktionen, 2% BIP, Sondervermögen, über mehr Bundeswehr in Litauen und in der Slowakei & die Waffenlieferungen für die Ukraine.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

1. After recent discussions in Vilnius&Berlin I think one needs to clearly say that Western strategy devised by🇺🇸🇩🇪, guided by fear of escalation and betting on “supporting Ukraine as long as it takes” =creating best conditions for negotiation= may turn out to be a failure.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

If we want to take some risks in helping Ukraine to fight the aggressor, let’s do it as NATO and as NATO let’s pay together the costs. And let’s not put separate allies into a risky position for which they might pay a double price.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Dänemark liefert mittlerweile mehr Panzerhaubitzen an die Ukraine als Deutschland.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Od wczoraj zmienił się charakter mojej pracy w OSW. Przyjęłam propozycję @W_Kononczuk i będę pełnić stanowisko wicedyrektora Ośrodka. Z entuzjazmem i pokorą podchodzę to tego wyzwania i cieszę się na współpracę z całym Zespołem @OSW_pl !

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

I leave it like that. Former German MFA, in the rank of an ambassador.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Ukrainian defence minister announced that Poland delivered overall 54(!) modern self-propelled howitzer Krab produced in Poland. This information hasn’t so far been made public by Warsaw.

3 dywizjony Krabów na Ukrainie

Minister obrony Ukrainy poinformował, że Polska przekazała Ukrainie 3 dywizjony armatohaubic samobieżnych Krab.

www.altair.com.pl

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

10/Es ist beschämend, wenn der Benzinpreis für 🇩🇪 mehr bedeutet als Menschenleben, Ende der russischen Kriegsmaschine und langfristige Gewährung des Friedens und der Sicherheit in Europa.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

9/Es ist beschämend, wenn 🇩🇪 sagt, dass es nicht mehr als 1000 Panzerfäuste, 500 Stinger und einige von alten Strela liefern kann. Die viertgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt und das Land, das 2021 mehr als 9 Milliarden € an Waffen exportiert hat. Wirklich?

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Herr Stegner und viele in der SPD leben in eigenen Welten. In diesen Welten komme es was es wolle, die europäische Sicherheit muss MIT Russland gestaltet werden, nie gegen. Wir LESEN das in Polen was Sie schreiben. Und haben zunehmend Zweifel, ob in der NATO auf 🇩🇪 Verlass ist.

Ralf Stegner MdB

@Ralf_Stegner

2 years

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

12. 🇷🇺 believes it can win this war. Without bigger deliveries of heavy equipment, tanks included, 🇩🇪 is indirectly contributing to more deaths and destruction in Ukraine.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

„In Deutschland lautet die Lehre aus dem verlorenen Zweiten Weltkrieg: Nie wieder Krieg, schon gar nicht mit Russland. Unsere Nachbarn haben aus dieser Katastrophe eine andere Lehre gezogen: Nie wieder Appeasement.” @fuecks

Irritationen über Deutschland: Die Verkehrung von Opfer und Täter ist in vollem Gang

Deutsche Unterwerfungspazifisten wollen die Ukraine zum Aufgeben bewegen, Kanzler Scholz bleibt unbefriedigend vage. Doch wenn der Westen Putin nicht in der Ukraine stoppt, steht der Frieden in...

www.spiegel.de

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

2. The Leopard announcement was made now because it is high time for 🇺🇦 to get tanks as the post-Soviet spare parts and munition will be sooner or later over. It is high time with the perspective of a possible 🇷🇺 offensive & high time for the West collectively to move.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

1.🇵🇱 has been delivering huge amounts of heavy equipment to 🇺🇦: tanks (300+), infantry fighting vehicles (200+), self-propelled howitzers… 🇵🇱 doesn’t need to be frustrated because 🇩🇪 declared to deliver 40 Marders. Here is an overview

Szymon Janus

@sjanus_pl

1 year

Summary of military equipment delivered by Poland to Ukraine. Report based on multiple sources and consultations. Feel free to use & share. --- Zestawienie sprzętu wojskowego dostarczonego przez Polskę na Ukrainę. Raport oparty na wielu źródłach i konsultacjach. Udostępniajcie.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

11/Ich hoffe,🇩🇪 ist doch imstande strategisch zu denken, anstatt zu der bequemen Verleugnung der Realität zurückzukehren. Falls das nicht stattfindet,🇷🇺wird es wohl in Erinnerung behalten, 🇺🇦 wird es nicht vergessen und wir werden 🇩🇪kaum anvertrauen können, trotz der Zeitenwende.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

3. More nations are ready to deliver the Leopards to 🇺🇦 but few are willing to go public against 🇩🇪. An uncomfortable position; 🇵🇱 has refrained from taking this step almost a year. But with 🇬🇧 sending Challenger tanks, and 🇫🇷 hinting at sending Leclercs, this was the time to go.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

11 months

Yes, Russia will rebuild its military capabilities and that will be faster than some think.

Ulrich Speck

@ulrichspeck

11 months

Despite sanctions, Russia gets "chips, processors and integrated circuits key to making modern weapons." "Five countries in particular that are causing the circumvention problem: Turkey, Kazakhstan, Georgia, the United Arab Emirates and Armenia."

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

9. 🇩🇪 blockade of tank deliveries to 🇺🇦 will have an effect on the 🇩🇪 arms industry. This has an impact on the thinking on how reliable an ally and an arms exporter Germany might be if Russia invades any of the eastern flank countries.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

13. And I will end with this screen from the account I mentioned in my first tweet in this thread.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

7. The defence of the 🇩🇪 government by saying that: there is no coalition, there is no request and this is all an 🇵🇱electoral campaign shows that what is happening in 🇺🇦 doesn’t still bother many in 🇩🇪. And not only 🇵🇱 sees that it is high time to deliver

Edgars Rinkēvičs

@edgarsrinkevics

1 year

We, 🇱🇻 🇪🇪 🇱🇹 Foreign Ministers, call on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now. This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

3/Der Schock der ersten Tage des Krieges war da und hat manches verändert. Aber er hat auch nachgelassen. 🇩🇪 versteht schon wieder nicht, worum es hier strategisch geht. Denn es handelt sich in diesem Krieg nicht nur um 🇺🇦, aber um die Sicherheit der Ostflanke und Europas.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

„In fact, I believe recent comments by senior US officials suggest that Washington would like Germany to supply the tanks. There are really no barriers for Berlin to provide the material, other than Berlin.”

Germany Can Decide Independently; It Does Not Have to Wait for Washington

Heather A. Conley is one of the most important foreign policy voices in the United States. In an interview, the head of the German Marshall Fund criticizes Berlin's sluggish arms aid to Ukraine. In...

www.gmfus.org

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

11. Finally, it is not about 🇩🇪 not having good narratives. It is about whether 🇩🇪 wants 🇺🇦 to defend itself against the 🇷🇺 invasion & does it utmost as a non-involved country or wether its unrealistic goal is to start peace talks with 🇷🇺 asap.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

4/Was muss geschehen? Russland soll wirtschaftlich zerstört und militärisch wesentlich geschwächt werden. Es darf keinen Sieg in diesem Krieg erklären. Keine Friedensgespräche mit weitgehenden Konzessionen auf Kosten der Ukraine, teils mit Aufhebung der Sanktionen.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

6. I hope 🇵🇱 will send soon a request for reexport now even with knowing that 🇩🇪 will not agree - for the simple reason of ending such claims in 🇩🇪 as I know hear - coming from the highest SPD representatives - about playing with this issue.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

10. More than that, a year after the start of the 🇷🇺invasion of Ukraine 🇩🇪 did nothing to make it possible to speed up production of much needed heavy military equipment. 🇩🇪 arms industry needs more than 8 months to send a few refurbished Leopard 2 tanks to 🇺🇦.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

4. The Economy Minister Habeck hinted at allowing reexport of 🇵🇱 Leopards to 🇺🇦. But it is not he who decides. It is the Security Council in theory, in practice it is the Chancellor Scholz. And he decided against;Pistorius confirmed that “there have been no decision” in Ramstein.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

8. The 🇺🇸 Biden administration is trying to avoid public pressure on 🇩🇪 - as it doesn’t want to come back to Trump’s policies of public German bashing. But it is highly critical of Berlin’s policies and is expressing it clearly to the German officials.

Dr. Liana Fix

@LianaFix

1 year

So, apparently the head of the German chancellery @W_Schmidt_ got into a very heated crosstalk with Lloyd Austin @SecDef over Leopards, reports Stefan Kornelius @SZ - which led to an angry „riot act“ call from Sullivan to Plötner. This is going great 👇

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

8/Für 🇩🇪 ist es Zeit zu handeln - der wirtschaftliche Opportunismus und die Vorstellungen von dem „wenigen Leid mit wenigen Waffenlieferungen“ sind der Gegensatz von Strategie. Und strategisch, wenn nicht schlicht und einfach menschlich, sollte man jetzt denken und handeln.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

A German general working for NATO has just said during a German conference that Russia is preparing for a regional war with the current troops deployments, according to a Russian General Staff playbook, but there is no political decision to start it.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

5/Wenn das passiert, in ein paar Jahren sind wir dran - Polen, die Ostflanke wird zum Ziel. Man muss nur die zwei Vertragsentwürfe lesen, die 🇷🇺 im Dezember 2021 vorgestellt hat. Alles steht da. Es ist falsch anzunehmen, dass es sich jetzt um die Staaten „in-between“ handelt.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

6/Russland geht es um die Neuteilung Europas. Und diese Neuordnung findet zurzeit in der Ukraine statt. Wenn wir es erlauben, in ein paar Jahren wird es an der Ostflanke stattfinden, vielleicht für uns in weniger vorteilhaften Bedingungen und einem nicht so geeintem Westen.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

To change this Germany needs to: 1) deeply change its thinking about Russia and its place in Europe 2) implement investments in the Bundeswehr & increase its readiness level ASAP 3) be much more engaged on the eastern flank along the US - geographically, financially, militarily.

Ulrich Speck

@ulrichspeck

2 years

Prediction: The damage in trust Germany and France have experienced in this major European security crisis is massive -- and make sure that the US, the UK and Nato will play the key roles in European security for many years.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

5. In January 🇵🇱pledged to deliver the Leopards in a coalition with others, with all the necessary allowances. Being faced with 🇩🇪refusal there were hints that 🇵🇱would be ready to deliver anyway. For now 🇵🇱decided to send more of old T-72, hoping that 🇩🇪will soon change its mind.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

“Peace instead of victory” would not only be disastrous for Ukraine leading to Minsk 3.0 (did Germany learn anything from past mistaken policies?) but also incur risks for the eastern flank - a conclusion that Russia can grab what it wants under short-term costs.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

7/Jetzt ist die Zeit, die mit jedem Tag verrinnt, für die Aufrechterhaltung der bisherigen Ordnung. 🇺🇦 braucht mehr an Unterstützung, um sich militärisch wehren zu können.🇷🇺 braucht mehr von wirtschaftlichem Druck seitens dem Westen, um den Krieg zu beenden.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

2/Die Hoffnung war da - dass 🇩🇪 endlich mit klaren Augen Russland sieht, das mittlerweile zu einem totalitären, militaristischen Staat geworden ist, das eine klare Bedrohung nicht nur für seine Nachbarn sondern für ganz Europa darstellt.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Was für Lügen verbreitetet Sigmar Gabriel im @DLF : - Lieferung von Panzern führt zum Einsatz der russischen taktischen Atomwaffen - Lieferung von schweren Waffen macht uns zum Kriegspartei - NATO stimmte darüber, keine Panzer der Ukraine zu liefern..

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Pabriks: We are not going anymore to pay for the dinners of others. We are sick and tired of those calling for compromise and appeasing Russia. We need to have a strong military presence in the region for the next decade. This is feasible.

Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Strong words from Latvian defence minister @Pabriks on 🇩🇪: The Baltic region was the most 🇩🇪friendly. The trust to Germany are now closed to zero. A German Baltic policy doesn’t exist. If 🇩🇪 don’t want this trust turn into mistrust,it needs to change its policies substantially.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Wer schickt schwere Waffen in die Ukraine? Tschechien, die Slowakei, Polen - Länder, die wissen warum Russland in diesem Krieg geschlagen werden muss. Sonst wir die Ostflanke militärisch getestet. Was für Diskussionen in Deutschland wird es in so einem Fall geben?

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

"The Ukrainian military will be probably the most experienced military in Europe. Ukraine deserves to be part of a community of democratic countries." Including Nato? I asked. "I believe they really deserve it."

Petr Pavel: Ukraine deserves to join Nato, says new Czech leader

Petr Pavel tells the BBC Ukraine is morally and practically ready to join Nato after the war is over.

www.bbc.com

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

@thorstenbenner I have learnt in recent 3 months that you cannot trust German official narrative on Ukraine/Russia as it is often misleading to say the least. Actions matter.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Ich finde, @sigmargabriel versteht nicht oder will nicht Putins Politik verstehen. Minsker Vereinbarungen immer noch als eine Lösung für „russische Minderheit“ in Donbas zu sehen ist angesichts dieses Krieges bemerkenswert.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Wenn auch willkommen, es ist wieder ein Halbschritt. @Bundeskanzler hat eine weitere Gelegenheit verpasst, nicht nur der Ukraine wesentlich zu helfen, aber auch 🇩🇪 Ruf an der Ostfkanke und im Bündnis zu reparieren. Es ist keine Führung, es ist unter Druck Hinauszögern&Nabelschau.

Verteidigungsministerium

@BMVg_Bundeswehr

2 years

Ministerin Lambrecht äußerte sich in ihrer Rede auf der #Bundeswehrtagung 2022 auch zum mutigen Kampf der #Ukrainer . Wir unterstützen weiter! 2⃣ weitere Raketenwerfer MARS II, inkl. Munition und Ausbildung sowie 5⃣0⃣ Allschutz-Transport-Fahrzeuge Dingo werden u.a. geliefert.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Es ist sehr einfach, eine scharfe Kritik der Politik von Scholz als PiS-Propaganda abzustempeln. Nur das Unverständnis der 🇩🇪Politik in 🇵🇱 ist riesengroß. Persönlich bin ich sehr enttäuscht von der „Zeitenwende“ in der Sicherheitspolitik - wie auch die meisten Experten in 🇩🇪.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

12. It is not about land. Crimea and Donbas are not enough for Russia. From 🇷🇺perspective this war is a zero-sum game. Ukraine understands that. The West only partly. We need a change of mindset and we need to listen to what Moscow clearly says.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

4. But 🇷🇺 doesn’t want a piece of 🇺🇦, 🇷🇺 wants control over whole 🇺🇦, and 🇷🇺strategic goals far beyond that. Russia aims to undermine the security&sovereignty of the eastern flank & Europe in general. 🇷🇺 sees our weakness and bets on prolonging the war to wear 🇺🇦 & the West off.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

8 months

And here’s a compilation of Polish and German deliveries of major military equipments to Ukraine - based on regular updates of the Arms Monitor Deliveries that OSW does.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

@MaximuClaudius And how did that end? We have US, German and Dutch Patriot systems to be send to Ukraine. It pays off to be ahead of the mainstream.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Unglaublich. Zeitenwende?

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Wczoraj skorzystałam z zaproszenia @PiotrZychowicz i porozmawialiśmy o Niemczech. Myślę, że wyszło ciekawie 🙂

Piotr Zychowicz

@PiotrZychowicz

2 years

Największy cios dla Putina! Niemcy zrywają z Rosją 🇩🇪⚡️🇷🇺 ➡️ Jeżeli ktoś przegapił wczorajszą premierę na Historii Realnej - może ją obejrzeć teraz. Moim gościem była pani Justyna Gotkowska z Ośrodka Studiów Wschodnich, znakomita ekspertka ds. Niemiec 1/2

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

9. Does Ukraine has chances to win? Yes, but the West needs to change its strategy & mindset. Not only we need to meet the short term needs of 🇺🇦defence, equip 🇺🇦 with additional weapons for the offensives in the coming year but also show 🇷🇺 that we are there for the long run.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

2. Yes, it united the West & helped 🇺🇦 to survive and fight back. But it was devised on premises that are increasingly problematic/false: 1)the perseverance of the West in helping 🇺🇦 2)the belief that 🇷🇺will finally understand it cannot win the war and will admit it was a mistake

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

My interview in Finnish🙃

Venäjän hyökkäys | Puolalaistutkija varoittaa toiveajattelusta, joka on herännyt Venäjän kärsimistä...

Justyna Gotkowskan mukaan lännessä on jo totuttu liikaa sodasta tuleviin kuviin, mikä saattaa estää tarpeellisen politiikan tekemisen.

www.hs.fi

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

@ulrichspeck As far as I am informed Germany (although not alone) is against a clear path for NATO membership for Ukraine and it will be another strategic mistake of Berlin which shows that not all lessons have been learned, and CCE countries are not listened to, again.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

10. First, by giving 🇺🇦 assurances of long term military deliveries. Second, by inviting Ukraine to NATO & showing 🇷🇺 that the game is over for its neoimperial ambitions. Russia can loose this war & we are in a position to make it happen in coming years without feared escalation.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Das Problem ist, niemanden interessieren in diesem Krieg die deutschen Befindlichkeiten, außer Deutschland. Dass Russland propagandistisch das ausnutzen kann, klar, sowie viel anderes. Die Stufe der Selbstfokusierung Deutschlands ist kaum zu glauben.

Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen and Rants" Masala

@CarloMasala1

2 years

Etwas älter, aber #ausgruenden Man will in…auch offenbar keine Bilder, bei denen mit 🇩🇪 Kampfpanzern… 🇷🇺 Einheiten …beschossen oder diese von russischer Seite erbeutet werden. Beides wäre aus historischen Gründen ein propagandistischer Erfolg für 🇷🇺

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

16 days

1/Na tyle często piszę krytycznie o Bundeswehrze i na tyle dobrze znam 🇩🇪, że pozwolę sobie skomentować wpis gen. Breuera i jego ZŁE tłumaczenie. 👉Generał pisze „🇩🇪 biorą odpowiedzialność NA wschodniej flance” 👉a nie jak tłumaczy ambasador „…ZA wschodnią flankę” To różnica 🙃

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

German politics is now a mess. Cacophony in strategic communication, lack of understanding of the nature of 🇷🇺🇺🇦 conflict, blindness to facts, disinformation in public sphere, sticking to old dogmas of political&economic cooperation with🇷🇺, false interpretations of history a.o.

Julian Röpcke🇺🇦

@JulianRoepcke

2 years

#BREAKING German Defence Ministry to @BILD : "In terms of content and choice of words, the statements in no way correspond to the position of the @BMVg_Bundeswehr . Admiral Schönbach is given the opportunity to make a statement to the Inspector General."

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

7 months

Wenn die Lieferung von ATACMS bestätigt wird, hoffe ich auf einen neuen Schwung in der Taurus-Debatte 🙂

Keine Taurus-Marschflugkörper für die Ukraine - Die Selbstabschreckung von Bundeskanzler Scholz

Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz möchte keine Taurus-Marschflugkörper an die Ukraine liefern. Doch wer in seinen Entscheidungen lieber auf allerlei Bedenken statt auf die Nato-Sicherheitsgarantie vertraut,...

www.cicero.de

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

3. We see problems in🇺🇸 mounting with the next support package for🇺🇦. There is an increasing weariness in Western Europe to support🇺🇦 and unpreparedness to wage a long conflict. And there is willingness to delude oneself that after all we might find a deal & modus vivendi with🇷🇺.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

11. Ukraine and the West can prevail but Western leaders need to admit the false premises of current strategy & understand the stake of this war. Russia and China aim to undermine regional security alliances led by 🇺🇸 and change the international order to their favour.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

8 months

Among all the hot titles on “Poland will not be delivering weapons to Ukraine” it is worth to correctly translate what the Polish PM said and what the reality of Polish arms deliveries to Ukraine looks like.

Daniel Szeligowski

@dszeligowski

8 months

This is not true! What the Polish PM said was "we are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine" & "now arming Poland with more modern weapons" because Poland has already sent Ukraine what it had in stocks. You saw Polish tanks and howitzers in UA long ago

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

3 months

These words coming from Rutte, probably the incoming NATO Secretary General, being in line with current thinking in the 🇩🇪Chancellory and 🇺🇸White House, demonstrate delusions & are a recipe for emboldening further 🇷🇺aggression against NATO

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Den Besuch von Zelenski in Izium als „ein Zeichen, dass er Gebietsansprüche der Ukraine dort ganz klar markieren will“ liegt ein bisschen daneben @tagesschau ? 🤦‍♀️ Gestern, ARD Tagesschau 20 Uhr.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

5. Even if 🇷🇺has troubles in maintaining the war effort, it has also clear political goals&will to scarify a lot to achieve what it wants. Would 🇷🇺want to negotiate now? I doubt. If so, then on its own terms claiming full subordination of🇺🇦. Would that be acceptable for🇺🇦 & us?

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

🇵🇱 committed 14 tanks, same as🇩🇪. More details of other Leo commitments will come at next Ramstein meeting in Feb. Training in 🇵🇱 has already started. With regard to spare parts, 🇵🇱 for its Leopard tanks has been dependant on🇩🇪, as other Leo users. Therefore🇩🇪 involvement crucial

Thorsten Benner

@thorstenbenner

1 year

"All talk, no action". No other country besides 🇩🇪(14 plus 5 Leopard 2) fully committed to sending tanks to 🇺🇦, frustrated chancellory claims. Scholz calling European leaders to follow through with commitments. For March delivery only 🇩🇪tanks realistic.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

6. What scenarios are looming? 1️⃣ If 🇺🇸 support will be delayed or decreased, it might be challenging for 🇺🇦 to keep the current frontline already in the coming months. Are we prepared in Europe to replace the 🇺🇸 military deliveries to 🇺🇦of e.g. ammunition?

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

8. Building up European capabilities takes time, and not all of European allies heard the wake-up call, share the analysis of Russian goals and feel the same urgency. European arms industry due to the lack of orders is in general only slowly catching up with reality.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

„A little advice to my friends in Germany. After the horrors of the 2WW there has emerged a strong and democratic Germany. But from such a Germany I expect leadership, leading by example and not dragging their feet as we see it today.”

Guy Verhofstadt

@guyverhofstadt

2 years

Your strategy of incremental sanctions doesn’t work. Cannot work… That’s why 212 members of Parliament demand a special #EUCO meeting to decide on full sanctions immediately! My speech👇🏻

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Niemcy potwierdziły, że kupią 35 samolotów F-35 do nuclear sharing (+dodatkowe 15 Eurofighterów ECR - electronic combat role). Na to wskazywały już przecieki przed przemówieniem Scholza 27.02. Decyzja, której wyczekiwała od Berlina większość sojuszników. 👍

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

1/Czas na 💈o Finlandii i Szwecji w NATO, w związku z gorącymi dyskusjami w obu krajach. W dwóch częściach. Najpierw Finlandia, bo ku zdziwieniu wszystkich, to Finowie przodują w tym procesie.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Niemcy dosyć celnie 🤣 w odpowiedzi na tweet ambasady Rosji w RPA

Germany in SA

@GermanyinSA

2 years

@EmbassyofRussia @MbalulaFikile @mfa_russia @PMSimferopol @RusConsCapetown @mahasharampedi @SABCNews @ThabisoLehoko @MID_Kaliningrad @RusEmbEthiopia @georgegalloway @calebmaupin Sorry, but we can't stay silent on this one, it's just far too cynical. What 🇷🇺 is doing in 🇺🇦 is slaughtering innocent children, women and men for its own gain. It's definitely not "fighting Nazism". Shame on anyone who's falling for this. (Sadly, we're kinda experts on Nazism.)

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

I see the narrative counter push of the 🇩🇪government & 🇩🇪German diplomats on supporting Ukraine but this will not change the reality of the lacking military aid. Additionally it deepens the distrust towards🇩🇪 in Ukraine and the CEE. Change of policy not of narrative is needed.

Andreas Michaelis

@GermanAmbUSA

2 years

To be clear: Germany is the third largest arms supplier for Ukraine and remains one of Ukraine’s most important financial supporters. And every refugee from Ukraine is welcome in Germany. More than 800.000 refugees have been registered.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

4 years

I am just begining to think that Emmanuel Macron is becoming a bigger problem to European security than Donald Trump

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

6 months

7. 2️⃣ Let’s think about worst case scenarios. With a possible turmoil around 🇺🇸presidential elections, 🇷🇺might also test Western resolve by militarily pressing the eastern flank countries. It would bet on 🇺🇸willing to go for a deal, with the European allies being unprepared.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

1/ Ponieważ zaczyna się tu awantura wokół 🇩🇪 za tę informację, postaram się tu wyjaśnić gdzie są Niemcy w kwestiach dostawy broni na Ukrainę i co nimi kieruje..

Bojan Pancevski

@bopanc

2 years

Germany is blocking ⁦ @NATO ⁩ ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine. Via ⁦ @WSJ ⁩

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

1/THREAD #MSC2023 My impressions from the Munich Security Conference: The 🇩🇪🇫🇷 couple with Chancellor Scholz and President Macron set the scene (with President Zelensky) during the first day. All in all a very telling setup with more hawkishness in tone but old ideas behind.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

I am not sure whether this “liberation narrative” is well received in the CEE, especially 🇵🇱. It may result from 🇩🇪 domestic debate but for many here it obscures 🇩🇪history, also in the context of the damages caused by German occupation 1939-1945 & the debate on compensation.

Germany in the EU

@germanyintheeu

1 year

Today, we remember #8May 1945, the day Germany and the world was liberated from the terrible national socialist regime. On #LiberationDay we commemorate the victims. We are grateful to live together in the 🇪🇺 in #friendship , #freedom & #peace and fight for these values every day.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

@shashj Poland delivered more than 300 thanks to Ukraine. The government will probably hand over all Leopard tanks to Kyiv at a later date when more of K2 and Abram tanks are delivered. Will other European allies do the same & order replacement? Question: Why underlining 🇵🇱 here?

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

What legitimacy does Macron have to propose this? Europeans haven’t agreed in NATO and in the OSCE on “a new balance”, to the contrary.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

In der Ukraine entscheidet sich nicht nur die 🇺🇦Souveränität/Integrität/Zukunft des 🇺🇦 Volkes aber auch die künftige Sicherheit 🇩🇪 Verbündeten an der Ostflanke. Deutsche Ansprüche eine Führungsmacht zu sein sind lächerlich, wenn 🇩🇪weiter zögert die Ukraine mehr zu unterstützten.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Among other things, Swiss arms industry can basically shut down.

NEXTA

@nexta_tv

1 year

"Swiss weapons should not be used in wars" - Swiss President The Swiss authorities are still not ready to allow #Germany and #Spain to re-export #Swiss weapons to #Kyiv , the president of the country, Alain Berset, confirmed in an interview with Die Neue Zürcher Zeitung.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

10 months

All important points: 👉we cannot give 🇷🇺 a veto over 🇺🇦membership in NATO 👉🇺🇦needs to be a member with territories it controls (+a promise not to start unilaterally military actions against🇷🇺 & no recognition of 🇷🇺occupation). This resembles 1955 NATO accession of West Germany

Korina Graf

@GrafKorina

10 months

Brillant wie immer @ClaudMajor Danke dafür und für die gute Argumentation gegen ihren Nachbarn linker Seite 😅👏

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Niemcy, Dania i Norwegia sfinansują zakup 16 armatohaubic Zuzana-2 słowackiej produkcji dla Ukrainy.

Björn Müller

@Bjoern__M

2 years

#Ukraine -Krieg Waffenhilfe PM @BMVg_Bundeswehr : „Als Ergebnis der Kopenhagen Konferenz haben sich Deutschland, Dänemark und Norwegen entschieden, gemeinsam und zu gleichen Teilen, die Produktion von 16 Radpanzerhaubitzen ZUZANA-2 aus slowakischer Produktion zu finanzieren.“

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

4 years

I find it incredible, that international policy observers/diplomats -after all Russia has done in recent years - cannot comprehend that Navalny’s poisoning was deliberate message to Russian opposition &the West. 1. don’t even dare Belarusian style protests 2. we don’t give a damn

Gérard Araud

@GerardAraud

4 years

It is difficult not to ask questions about assassinations committed or attempted by Russian services. What is their goal? Why are they so inept? Why to endanger much more important political positions? The Russian responsibility is undeniable but I don’t see the logic behind it.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Aus Warschaus Perspektive scheint es manchmal, dass das offizielle Berlin auf einem fernen Planeten lebt.

Mathieu von Rohr

@mathieuvonrohr

2 years

. @DIEZEIT beschreibt hier sehr gut, wie misstrauisch in der Berliner Ampelkoalition über die Ukraine und über Selenskyj geredet wird, wie es immer sofort um die dortige Korruption geht (die in Russland um ein Vielfaches schlimmer ist). Befremdlich.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Ursula von der Leyen na @MunSecConf ma na razie takie przemówienie jakby napisał jej ktoś z Polski 😂 O podważaniu przez Rosję ładu międzynarodowego, o dziwnych praktykach Gazprom i konieczności dywersyfikacji ze strony UE i o wspieraniu demokratycznej Ukrainy, z pochwałami NATO

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Warum? 1. 🇩🇪 Regierung hat kaum Schritte eingeleitet, um die deutsche Rüstungsindustrie vom Friedensmodus auf Krisenzeiten umzustellen. Es gibt kaum politische Wille, dies zu machen und sich - trotz „Zeitenwende“ - an neue Gegebenheiten in Europa anzupassen. /1

Joerg Lau

@joerglau

1 year

„Poland orders more Abrams tanks.“ Unser Nachbar will keine deutschen „Leoparden“. Mich wundert es nicht, nach unseren Debatten hierzulande.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Oświadczenie Scholza: 1)🇺🇦 może sobie kupić z listy, którą przedstawił 🇩🇪przemysł, za 🇩🇪 środki (ponad 1 mld euro zapowiedziane w piątek). 2)ALE „najefektywniejsze są dostawy sprzętu dla 🇺🇦z zasobów wschodnich członków NATO,my z innymi państwami G7 będziemy wspomagać sojuszników”

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

1 🇩🇪 is the biggest EU state, located in Central Europe. 2 🇩🇪 shaped the 🇷🇺/🇺🇦policy of the West in the past which proved wrong.Thus 🇩🇪 is expected to make up for own mistakes. 3 🇩🇪 claims the ambition to « lead » on European defence - and it is judged accordingly.

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff

@KleineBrockhoff

1 year

Can anyone explain why the critique of🇩🇪 in CEE countries regarding help for🇺🇦 is massive while the critique of France, Italy, Spain is restrained even though they do much less to help🇺🇦? Is it just geography? @jana_puglierin @fuecks @ulrichspeck @jgotkowska @RoFreudenstein

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

I am sorry, but @Bundeskanzler speech in Munich was for me a speech of a country’s leader that wants to retain the status-quo in times it is not to be maintained any more. And one that wants to merge allied solidarity with domestic constraints. Pretty emblematic for Germany.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

2 years

Polen hat die Ukraine mit militärischer Hilfe im Wert von 1,5 Milliarden Euro unterstützt.

Piotr Müller

@PiotrMuller

2 years

Polska 🇵🇱 przekazała Ukrainie 🇺🇦 sprzęt wojskowy o wartości ok. 7 mld zł. Poinformował o tym @MorawieckiM na konferencji inicjującej akcję #StopRussiaNOW skierowaną do krajów Europy Zachodniej. To ponad 1,6 mld dolarów.Ten sprzęt ratuje ukraińską,polską i europejską suwerenność.

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Justyna Gotkowska

@jgotkowska

1 year

Polen scheint für Teile der SPD trotz des Krieges an unseren Grenzen kein wichtiger Partner zu sein. Wir sind näher dran und „natürlich haben eine andere Haltung”. Eine andere Haltung als 🇩🇪 hatte 🇵🇱 auch in der Vergangenheit gehabt und die war irgendwie… richtig? @andikynast

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