i'd be very sorry to see Twitter disappear; i have gained much from seeing what others think/write. but Mastadon has an appeal - so there I'm
@RobertFordinMaine
@newsie
.social.
i've seen Israel humiliate previous US administrations, but aside from murderous 1967 Israeli airstrike against US navy ship Liberty, now forcing USA to do airdrops of aid to Gaza as if USA is no better than Egypt & Jordan is Israel's worst humiliation of USA i've ever seen.
i should add that USA will do humanitarian aid airdrops to Gazans if the Israeli Air Force graciously agrees not to shoot down the American planes over Gaza.
@JudgyJudes
not better in any morale sense. no. but USA supposed to have far greater, closer relations w Israel than the relations between Israel and Jordan or Egypt. yet Washington has no more influence than Cairo or Amman on Israel's actions in the humanitarian space in Gaza.
remarkable -- in Mexico City. No such worldwide protests when Israel hammered Beirut in 1982 or Lebanon in 2006 or Gaza over the years. Not sure Israel or Washington understand how perceptions have shifted.
Don't believe for a second that Biden's greenlighting of Israel's slaughter in Gaza only hurts America's standing in the Middle East.
This is Mexico City. I cannot recall the last time there was a protest of this size in Mexico against Israel's war.
nothing i said garnered much interest, but by golly Room Rater liked the painting by Iraqi artist Turki Abdul Amir Auda and the ceramic plates from Istanbul.
Israelis and Palestinians equally have a right to live in safety and security. The current violence has deprived both communities of this basic right.
This morning, the UN Security Council will meet to discuss the crisis and how to end the cycle of violence.
Another interesting account of US-Saudi interaction before last week's OPEC+ announcement of production cut. per article, Biden admin asked Saudis to delay for one month the decision to cut - after the US elections.
if there is no hope of getting Iraqi forces to protect the US embassy in Baghdad and we must rely on Apaches flying over firing flares, then I respectfully suggest we start destroying sensitive materials and equipment. It's easier if done in orderly fashion.
“Iraqi security forces made no effort to stop the [crowd] as they marched to the heavily-fortified Green Zone after a funeral held for those killed in the U.S. airstrikes, letting them pass through a security checkpoint leading to the area.”
John Kirby says he has not seen the news yet that Israel concedes it hit a Palestinian refugee camp, says “We have indications that they are trying” on Israel trying to avoid civilian casualties. “I’m not predicting that on any given day they aren’t going to fail to met their own
what was syria's 3rd largest city and rising commerce hub. bashar al-assad and his supporters now can enjoy (in his words) a "healthier, more homogeneous society."
How can anyone take seriously the Biden administration claim that it will work for a two-state solution when it won't even restore funding for UNRWA or explain what hard evidence against UNRWA compels it to halt funding?
The intel- including signals intel from that day - showed Syrian army had ordered the attack. The AP article notes, as we saw, that the intel didn't say Assad personally ordered the attack. (Given the Syrian system, he probably did OK it, but in any case Syrian govt responsible.)
US gov't continues to accuse Syria despite knowing at the time -- as its own officials leaked () -- that the evidence didn't support it. All evidence points to the Ghouta attack being carried out by sectarian death squads. ()
effort to train/equip FSA fighters vs ISIS failed largely b/c US required fighters to pledge not ever to use new weapons vs Syrian govt. Obama admin lawyers crafted approach to be defensible under international law. Big majority of FSA fighters, naturally, refused to pledge.
US tried to train/equip FSA fighters vs ISIS but effort failed - badly. working w organized, brave PKK-affiliated Syr Kurdish fighters vs ISIS was resulting short-term expedient. Washington saw long-term political risks as far back as 2015 but never worked on alternative force.
I doubt six months ago many of us Iraq watchers expected to see the Iranian consulate in Karbala burned before any American facility was attacked. NOT a call for US triumphalism - rather, a reminder we should be humble about what we think we know about Iraq.
Most people following Syria also agree huge Russian & Iranian logistical & tactical help to the Syrian security forces enabled them to continue to pursue a strategy of military victory for years, which cost thousands of Syrian lives. Opposition willing to negotiate, not Assad.
@LouisProyect1
Most people who follow Syria agree that international efforts to support, fund, and arm the rebels extended the life and severity of the rebellion by years without changing the outcome. This cost thousands of Syrian lives.
Odd - where are the al-Qaida flags ? where are the fires and destroyed buildings and cars that jihadi terrorist-led mobs were supposed to be destroying from the beginning of the uprising?
Kyle was polite - he didn't mention the informal, tactical military cooperation that the Syr govt undertook with ISIS for ex, near Marea in 2015. Sometimes Syr govt/ISIS fight, sometimes they don't. There are no black & whites in the Syr civil war.
Asad spent a decade assisting ISIS in Iraq, deliberately bolstered jihadists in the Syrian insurgency while murdering peaceful protesters, and let ISIS build its caliphate to force a binary choice -- the dictator or terrorists.
But sure, damaging Asad's CWMD is helping ISIS.
Ok guys. I'm going public with this. For the past few weeks I h been receiving death threats and other warnings from Rojava Kurdish accounts (incl from Paris). Tonight I got emails that they made my profile on lesbian/gay/sex accounts. I pay a price for exposing PYD propaganda.
after watching "For Sama" last night, I must remind that the SDF had far more US support than the FSA ever did. Starting with a No Fly Zone that has prevented the Syrian/Russian air forces from blasting eastern Syria cities/towns as they did to E Aleppo, Rif Dimeshq, Homs, etc.
When US designated Al Qaida-affiliate Nusra as a terrorist group, FSA's Brig. Gen. Salim Idriss in 2012 said Nusra fighters were not terrorists.
Now Idriss leads the 'united' Turkish national army that will most likely attack the SDF in the near future.
FSA would rather have had that air cover/no fly zone than the goodies you list (support at UN - Russian vetos?). Recall al-Qusayr 2013. resources were always unreliable, worsened corruption. meanwhile, without US air power, not clear SDF would have enjoyed such successes.
@im_PULSE
@flintsparc
@fordrs58
It meant billions of $ in lethal and nonlethal assistance, US-brokered int'l legitimacy, an OFAC license to spend as much $ as desired in the USA, access to US lawmakers, US-supported position in UN process, and first dibs on C-ISIS campaign. SDF gets/got air cover to fight ISIS.
Russian military has largely prevailed in Syrian civil war, but now Moscow (a) seems not to know what to do next and (b) certainly doesn't want responsibility long-term stabilization/recovery in Syria. Different kind of quagmire. Still hopes West will help save its equities.
@joshrogin
What is the U.S. interest in Syria?
Jeffrey: Terror threat. And, he says, "It is the center of the middle east." It matters for our trading partners which means it has an impact on global market for oil, and so your price at the pump.
Not sure Tillerson treated career senior diplomats like Pat Kennedy, Tom Countryman, Kristi Kenney, Linda Thomas Greenfield, Bill Miller and Gentry Smith any better when they were shown the door last year.
@GregDjerejian
@lrozen
Face-to-face? He didn't even do it phone-to-phone, right? Tillerson had to do the modern equivalent of reading it in the papers.
Josh, please identify the US operation that "sent" future AQ jihadis to sabotage Assad/Iran. You are saying US sent foreign fighters to Syria. Evidence?
@RenaNetjes
@NicholasAHeras
Very true. And US sent 1,000s of future AQ jihadis to Afghanistan to sabotage RU operations. And to Syria to sabotage Assad/Iran. It seems AQ jihadis are everyone's favorite gift to their enemy. Sad state of affairs in poor Mid East, where all govs seems willing to work w AQ
amazing: john bolton told media in israel that russia wants iranian "entrenchment" n syria & its support to hizballah to end. and sec state pompeo said u.s. to work for "enduring" fix 2 syria war that includes constitution reform & elections. we never learn.
problems w Turkish policy are real. but the letter didn't mention that Turkish drones did more to halt major Syrian govt assault in 2020 against northwest Syria, full of internally displaced Syrian civilians, than anything US did, including pontificating by members of Congress.
27 Members of Congress send a bipartisan letter to
@SecBlinken
sounding the alarm on Turkey's malign UAV program, which destabilizes the world, and threatens US interests.
@indefchristians
was glad to work with our friends
@ANCA_DC
&
@HellenicLeaders
Nov. 9 US Govt IG quarterly report based on US intel: "ISIS capabilities remained degraded in Iraq & Syria and the group operated in survival mode..." And keeping 3,500 US soldiers in Iraq & Syria vs very degraded ISIS is worth wider Middle East war? Really?
many of these people were already under US sanctions, per E.O. 13572 & 13573. But Bushra Assad has property in UAE - will US now target UAE firms that do business w/ her there ? Hamsho has business in Central Europe - will US target Euro firms there? We'll see how this unfolds
US Secretary of State Pompeo announces the first round of designations under the Caesar Act, naming mostly members of the Assad families and its closest cronies, as well as one Iranian-led militia. The full list of 39 designees to be released later today.
"Palestinians believe that the entire international community has let them down with the closure of borders and the suspension of aid flow into the Gaza Strip.''
Al Jazeera's Tareq Abu Azzoum reports on the dire situation in Gaza as a result of Israel's attacks on the enclave.
polite question. it's impossible to argue that Biden administration is naive or incompetent when dozens of mid-level officials across the bureaucracy are warning of the situation and the administration leaders do nothing concrete. oh, and Congressional majority complicit too.
"the Biden administration’s occasional expressions of concern with the civilian death toll in Gaza while enabling the war raises a disturbing question: Is the Biden administration knowingly complicit in maximizing civilian killing in one of the most deadly military campaigns in
still shaking my head about 1.7 of 2.2 million Gazans now homeless. horrible; sickening. US Govt carries a huge responsibility, so our tax dollars will & must help Palestinians survive now, rebuild later. but big funding from Israel must accompany our funding. no free ride.
who authorized their making promises of defense? was it trump himself? process seems so broken. meanwhile, US special forces seem not so distraught about Syrian civilians suffering and in some cases dying at Rukban camp under the watchful eye of other US special ops personnel.
A sr military official told me US special forces troops distraught, upset, morally disturbed by having to tell their kurdish allies in Syria that, because of orders, their promises of defense won’t be kept.
American PYD/YPG allies in north Syria celebrate Abdallah Ocalan's birthday as Washington threatens Turkey against intervention in N Syria & blasts pending procurement of Russian missiles.
hope at White House and State press conferences Monday journalists ask the US Govt what impact shutting off funds to UNRWA will have on the grim hunger situation in Gaza and what steps Washington and Israel are taking to replace UNRWA food aid.
SAA fought AQ sometimes, sometimes manipulated/used it in Iraq & Syria; sometimes fought ISIS, sometimes helped it (Hassakeh 2013; Marea 2015, etc). check out the photo of Assad & Katerji who did multiple business deals with ISIS. Assad clearly furious about those deals.
.
USA fought Daesh only in NE Syria as an ally of SDF (which it then betrayed). SAA fought AQ, Daesh, & a thousand other Jihadist gangs all over Syria. It's childish to compare plums & pineapples.
.
#BREAKING
US Nat Sec Advisor Gen. McMaster speaks with senior Turkish Presidential Advisor Kalın amid Turkish moves against Syria’s Afrin.
Kalın presses McMaster to end US aid to YPG. Both agrees upon a political transition process in Syria that wouldn’t harm neighbours
US govt line is, 2b polite, crud. they have an airstrip; they have influence w/Jordan that used to allow aid access. if US wanted 2 meet its international legal responsibilities w/ Rukban it would. instead, it ignores those responsibilities, punts, blames others. phony.
U.S. officials tell me the Syrian regime is to blame for the dire conditions at Rukban, where thousands of refugees are starving.
The U.S. is “pursuing every possible avenue to deliver aid to Rukban.”
@ForeignPolicy
huh? (1) trying 2get Syrian Kurdish PYD in UN Constitution talks not same as promising 2protect their autonomous zone; (2) US overestimated its influence in broader civil war because (3) it didn't understand the broader Syrian war NOT mainly about ISIS. For us, yes but others, no
ICYMI: Gen. Thomas contradicts State claims that no promise was made to the Kurds to help protect them: “Brett McGurk and I were there in Kobani where we said that they would be part of the future discussion of Syria in return for doing our bidding.”
OMG!
Is this the Dem Party's plan to delegitimize authentic fury over the slaughter in Gaza? Labeling Gaza ceasefire calls as "Putin's message"?
That's what Pelosi tells CNN. She wants FBI to investigate links between protesters and Putin. How's this different from Trump's MO?
since US Government cannot define timeline or conditions 4 its forces' withdrawal, this answer is, well, not convincing. And in the case of Tanf, against US obligations under international humanitarian law.
.
@joshrogin
: We have the capability to feed [people starving in Syria], why not just feed them?
James Jeffrey, US Special Representative for Syria: “If we feed them, it will look like we’re going to stay there forever.”
Watch more:
#AspenSecurity
@SecPompeo
@MPPregent
no new mythologies, please. hizballah has been rising for years; it seized control of beirut by force of arms in 2008 during another u.s. presidency (GOP). yes, it is rising, but not solely because of JCPOA.
very few US weapons ended up with al-Qaeda. Careful research such as by
@Rebel44CZ
shows that. Sorry, truth hurts. And how did all those AKs and other Russian weapons end up with al-Qaeda and ISIS? Oh, the Syrian army....
Instead of helping finance ISIS n eastern Syria as its air force &Russian allies focused on hitting FSA in western Syria, Damascus could have negotiated a transition government n Geneva under UN 2join w opposition against ISIS. Syr govt chose to cooperate directly $$ w ISIS.
If you're an Arab citizen resident in Middle East/North Africa who pushes 4 greater respect of all rights listed in 1948 UN universal declaration, usually your govt, not Iran, is main problem. US likely cant fix but at least we can have honest analysis, seek balance in policy.
Blinken and Biden don't get it. Really. An investigation is meaningless UNLESS there is swift, public accountability, certain, public punishment and an immediate change in Israeli forces' behavior/rules of engagement. all are measureable.
Secretary of State Blinken said in a press conference in Paris that the U.S. expressed concern to the Israeli government about the targeting of the WCK convoy and asked for a swift investigation around the incident
rather than platitudes about diplomacy, direct analysis is (1) Syr govt rejected any negotiations, consistently; (2) Syr govt was always going to kill its way out, w/RU & Iran help. Thus Arab League, Annan initiatives failed 2011-2012.
@faysalitani
@academia
Yes, diplomats must often suspect that their diplomacy is destined to fail, but they push ahead with diplomacy anyway because the alternative - war - is worse. Clinton did this with Iraq. His government was supposed to be committed to regime-change, but he did so half-heartedly
Zaitun Agency reports that Russian media "reveal" establishment of Russian-Iranian-Syrian ops center to "break the economic siege" on Syria with Russian warships escorting Iranian tankers from Suez Canal to Syrian ports to ensure their safe arrival.
ahhh, defining those pesky red lines. i recall serious discussions inside the Obama administration late 2012/early 2013 about how many Syrian civilian casualties from ongoing Syrian army chem attacks would constitute Assad crossing Obama's red line.
did
@JoeBiden
administration give
#Israel
a specific range of how many women & children they can kill in
#Rafah
? We know he does not want 2see 30K killed in an
#Israeli
ground invasion of Rafah. How about 20k? Will that be acceptable 2him?
@NicholasAHeras
@flintsparc
@fordrs58
You know you are talking bollocks, right? The CIA’s main preoccupation in 2012 was to vet weapons that other allies were sending to make sure game-changing weapons such as MANPADS were not slipping through.
US is in northern Syria to "check Russia" in "the great power competition in Syria"? That is a major US national interest? Stop Iranian landbridge? Iranian never had one before & Damascus airport worked very well for them. Geneva process leverage? please...
i'm no expert on Russia policy n Syria but unless Moscow has lined up an alternative to Assad, it would expect chaos n Damascus if Assad govt falls. Assad collapse would be defeat 4Russia. So, it wont accept Assad suffering big battlefield defeat. My opinion.
I met Ahrar Fall 2013 to urge they accept Geneva 2 talks in January 2014. We gave no aid of any kind-zero. Didn't even publicly acknowledge meeting. They stressed they were not a JN affiliate, but they feared JN retaliation if they publicly backed Genv2. So they kept silent.
Elizabeth Warren is the best choice for president. She'll start addressing problems at home that if ignored will hurt our efforts abroad. Her ideas are the best for strengthening US diplomacy while setting realistic, achievable goals for US military ops in places like Middle East
nothing justifies TFSA abuses in Afrin and now in NE Syria, but saying the US killed democracy in Syria is not right either. the article's accusation doesn't really merit a serious response. people believe what they want to believe, and facts stop mattering for them.
Ummm, there are literally millions of civilians, thousands more already killed under Syrian + Russian airstrikes. Even harder to deny than climate change. Suggest you see the documentary film "For Sama" for a sense of civilians' plight.
former US ambassador articulates one of most "urgent, immediate issues" from perspective of former Obama admin official: how to protect AlQaeda allies in Idlib.
I've met top leaders from 8 Arab states & Assad was only one who lied face-to-face when confronted w/ an ugly truth. Leaders w stature &dignity would say, "you Americans will have 2be patient" or "tough - you'll just have live with what we do." Assad knows we know & lies anyway.
In the same interview, Assad also says they don't torture in regime prisons and are tolerant toward former opposition-held areas. Believe what the regime does, not what it says. Assad repeatedly instrumentalized jihadists for political benefit (Iraq war, mass releases in 2011).
not true. fact: Feb 2014 @ Geneva 2 talks, Syr oppo, backed by armed oppo groups w/reps n Geneva also, in writing 2UN rep L Brahimi proposed negotiating each member of transition govt, including President. It did not pre-condition Assad departure. Syr govt immediately rejected
you miss even bigger point: the vast majority of Syrian civilians killed n this awful war R victims not of Syrian rebel groups, atrocious as many of their actions R. Instead, the majority of victims died due 2 Syrian & Russian military operations -they killed even more than ISIS.
@fordrs58
You are missing the bigger point and that is you supported militants that directly and or indirectly were existential threat to many communities in Syria
This ongoing atrocity doesnt just result from Syria's constitution. There is no rule of law n Syria. As much as Moscow &UN team want focus on amending constitution they miss the mark & change nothing. They simply have nothing else to offer.
Sketch. Omar Alshogre , survivor of Assad’s hellish prisons. Now a brave voice for the thousands still detained. "We were heaped, sticking to each other, extremely tight, just like pickled cucumbers in a jar. inmates started to drink their own urine. detainees perished in tens."
UN: "Long-standing gaps, inconsistencies and discrepancies remain unresolved --
#Assad
regime account "cannot be considered accurate and complete in accordance with the Chemical Weapons Convention"
"Imperative to hold accountable all those who would dare to use chemical weapons"
A pity you helped lead House opposition to Obama strike against dictator Assad's criminal forces in Sept 2013 after they had used chemical weapons that killed hundreds.
Damascus such a beautiful place. Some people I have met talked about going onto their roofs to watch the US's "firework display". Most seem to have slept through it.
YPG had some big advantages for USA in ISIS fight: (1) unified command; FSA had multiple outside patrons undermining unified command; (2) YPG didn't have Syr Arab Army at its throat n NES, as FSA did n W Syria leading FSA to cooperate w/ Nusra. USA took easiest short-term path
cannot believe our good fortune: Aron could be in Syria tomorrow to give us his on-the-spot coverage of the hotly contested Syrian presidential election.
No. Riyadh by July 2011 wanted Assad gone &was pushing Obama (with some Eur states) to make his statement. Turks switched hard vs Assad after August 2011 deal collapsed w Hama, DeZ events. US was still urging dialog, no violence. All this b4 Syria Friends 1st mtg n Tunis Feb 2012
@IbrahimAlAssil
@AbuJamajem
@fordrs58
You may be right, but the US misjudged the Syrian army's staying power. It led the effort to get Turkey & Saudi to back the opp. US State Dept organized the "Friends-of-Syria" group, etc., much as it did the Libyan opposition, which it declared united & ready to take power.
And Sam Dagher's book, "Assad or We Burn the Country" is rich in stories and anecdotes, superb context and very readable, with sources carefully noted for those who would doubt. (i was not one of his many sources.)
Today at
@WashInstitute
2 ex ambassadors to
#Syria
@MrjDuclos
&
@fordrs58
reminded audience that fundamentals of
#Assad
“regime of fear & terror” have not changed and will not change. Amb. Duclos just published “The Long Syrian Night” in French, congrats!
the banner in top left reads, in Arabic, Sham Legion, as does the fighter's armband. They do not say "Nusra Front". Fares, who speaks Arabic far better than I could ever hope to, knows this but retweeted anyway.
so per WashPost, we changed policy to hit pro-Iran militias more readily 2defend US troops n Iraq. those forces there 2help Iraqi govt vs ISIS. meanwhile, US sanctions vs Iran impede Iraqi imports of Iranian energy for Iraqi electricity, threatening Iraq govt that US seeks 2help
I dont recall US govt bombing Boston schools & homes after the marathon bombing, or FBI torturing thousands during subsequent search or hundreds of Bostonians fleeing towards Canada
@fordrs58
And what was the alternative that would have satisfied soft-Heart
@Charles_Lister
and all of the humanitarians in the west? Jaish Al-Islam forever in charge of Douma and Al-Qaeda in Idlib? ... remember how the US reacted to ONE “Boston bomber”?
Turk intel collusion w/ISIS&Nusra known, but this clip unconvincing. Russians, Kazakhs, Bosnians cited in clip can get entry stamps at Istanbul airport as normal tourists. Exit stamps to Syria wld be more convincing to show Turk intel collusion but reporter didn't ID exit stamps.
@MazAlJumaily
@bave_walat
It corroborates the recent interview by
@AnneSpeckhard
with an ISIS Emir, Abu Mansour, who was in charge of the border w Turkey. He claimed weekly meetings w Turk intel to obtain proper stamps in passports for transit of ISIS personnel and recruits.
listen to yourself: a movie is "collective punishment"? a film showing outside Syria in Europe/North America? or, are you saying people inside Syria can watch it freely (like on Dounia TV) and thus are upset by it?
"For Sama" is a kick in the face, a spit on the grave of Syrian martyrs , a continuation of collective punishment of
#Syrian
people who hve endured a 9 yr war sustained by lies, dishonesty, misrepresentation & cynical profiteering.
Plenty of abuse and chaos in Washington for sure. This we know: Schiff, elected, chairs the House Permanent Select Committee on Intel. When the Committee demands information, the DNI by law must provide it. That's rule of law before anything else.
With all due respect, Ambassador Ford, Schiff has been doing the same thing for nearly 4 years, abusing govt institutions & sowing chaos throughout media, politics, & society. The pattern is not hard to discern.
on
#Syria
, feel free to send photos if you want. i'll send you back some of HTS and ISIS w/ weapons from Syr Arab Army. Assad generals give them on purpose to terrorists? Or how about photo of Assad shaking hands w/man who bought ISIS oil? Pls don't play innocent victim.
@joshua_landis
@nikolaosvandam
do i understand VanDam's argument? since they cannot change Syrian govt policy peacefully or by arms, Syrians should just shut up and suffer dictatorship and abuse, forever while foreigners should shut up too. and scale of war crimes irrelevant so all sides equally guilty.
i'll believe Biden admin is truly concerned about Palestinian civilians & would press to extend a 6 week ceasefire when (1) it investigates Israeli use of US weapons as US law requires & (2) discloses results & halts deliveries if law then requires. til then, credibility lacking.
Syrian security forces killed many thousands of civilians, starting with barrel bombs. thousands of extrajudicial killings (Sednaya, ex). please don't make them out to be better than others on the ground in Syria. the scale of SAA/Mukhabarat atrocities far beyond any others.
USA absolutely did kill some civilians, and that is bad. And the US killed far fewer than has the Syrian govt which you ought to acknowledge to be honest.
I don't know if Turkey is bluffing about invading northeast Syria; it has bluffed before. Its anxieties re Syrian Kurds are very longstanding. If Washington truly concerned re possible Turk actions, a serious Secretary of State would get on the plane to Ankara from Athens now.
Donors need to start
** preparing legal justification for cross-border w/o UN Security Council ok;
** developing logistical coordination capacity to replace UN role in Idlib sooner or later;
** fixing sanctions regimes so they really doesn't impede humanitarian aid programs
Russia and China determined to starve NW Syria into submission. When the UN fails to protect millions of civilians, member states must find other ways to do so.
thank you for raising Rukban crisis, Josh. important to note that the US govt is violating international humanitarian law (Geneva 4th Conv) by not acting as provider of last resort of humanitarian assistance to civilians in an area effectively under its military control.
"One tweet by Trump could allow the U.S. military to do what it does for people suffering all over the world — save their lives... If we don’t act now, our neglect will make us complicit in whatever horror they suffer next."
@VoiceofRukban