๐ช๐บ๐ถ Aspiring MP for Cities of London and Westminster; promoted by L Garcia 1 Vincent Sq SW1P 2PN. โ๏ธ ๐ฒ๐๐ป๐ถ ๐
#lvt
,๐น๐ผ; ๐ฉ๐ช ๐ท๐บ๐จ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐น๐ต๐ฑ
This is election year and we're fundraising for a historic victory in Cities of London and Westminster! If you are eligible (UK citizen, or business paying taxes here) please go to
thread 1/13 Putin's risk appetite is far greater than we realised. We are deluding ourselves (I was too complacent and thought he wouldn't go this far) So forget the stirring talk about Western unity and a revived spirit of purpose in NATO.
13/13 And finally:
Apologise to Ukrainians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Czechs, Slovaks (and Russians) for ignoring their warnings over so many years.
Thread: 1/5 Putin has done a classic bait and switch: frightened us with one thing so that we accept another. The further dismemberment of Ukraine, and an avowed Russian military presence there: in effect, two more Crimeas.
10/13 -- The US to announce that foreign politicians and senior officials who sit on Russian boards or act as consultants to Russian companies must resign at once, or be blacklisted from visiting the United States. Other countries to follow suit.
5/13 -- Withdraw all Western (NATO, EU, OECD) ambassadors from Moscow and send their Russian counterparts home.
-- Close all Russian consulates, trade missions. We need barebones embassies, nothing more.
11/13 -- Any law firm, bank, accountancy firm, consulting outfit or other professional service firm that does business with a sanctioned Russian entity must cut ties at once or face similar penalties.
9/13 -- Delist these companies from the exchanges in London, Frankfurt, New York and other western financial centers. Stop trading their debt, bonds and other financial instruments
8/13 -- And on their spouses, siblings, offspring, parents and other associates.
-- Announce a sweeping program of asset freezes on these individuals, and on companies linked to the Kremlin or owned (even in part) by Kremlin cronies.
7/13 -- visa bans on all government ministers, on all members of the Duma and Federation Council, all governors and office-holders in Russiaโs regions, on all officials in the โpower ministriesโ and security agencies, and on the 35 individuals named in Alexei Navalnyโs list.
3/13 For the West, this may be (yet another) wake-up call. For Ukraine, it is a death-knell.We will have years (decades, probably) to mull the combination of naivete, complacency, arrogance, ignorance and โ most of all โ greed that brought us to this catastrophe.
2/13 Warm words and high spirits do not bring the dead back to life. As you read this, Ukrainians are huddling in bomb shelters, dodging bullets, and seeing their dreams of a free, prosperous, law-governed independent country destroyed.
4/5 We need a huge, narrative-shifting, decisive reaction right now: EU/NATO accession path for UA clarified, big financial/military aid, expulsion of Russian ambassadors, cancel NS2, sweeping visa bans/asset freezes, delisting of Rosneft etc from London stock exchange
5/5 If we don't do that, we will be back here again in days/weeks/months and in a far worse position. And don't forget, Ukrainians pay in blood and bereavement for our naรฏvetรฉ, greed and cowardice.
4/13 But the biggest question is what to do right now. Sanctions are not a magic bullet. But here is a ten-point to-do list for action by the end of the week. (lots of other things too, but this for immediate action)
Thread 1/11
Too little, too late
Londongrad just took a direct hit. Or did it?
Look at the measures that the government has announced.
Hereโs a quick guide
I'm compiling a visa blacklist of American, British and EU-based "enablers" โ bankers, lawyers, accountants, fixers and gofers โ who have helped Putin's murderous regime loot Russia and launder reputations and fortunes. DM me suggestions.
#nofly
I am asking
@Cenckiewicz
@michalrachon
@SamPereira_
and
@MiAdamczyk
to remove my interview clips from the online version of the tendentious "Reset" film. I was misled about its editorial angle. I also want a public assurance that no clips will be used in the rest of the series.
Andrey Gurulyov, State Duma deputy, former deputy commander of Russia's southern military district, discussed how to best attack the West, while also purging internal opposition & hunting them down abroad. Fellow propagandist warned I would use those quotes, but he kept talking.
2/5 We should have started sanctions months ago (years, really). Instead we have waited for a "trigger" event. Putin just has to calibrate his behaviour to be complicated (Donetsk Shmonetsk -- who's heard of these places anyway)? and sub-threshold.
I am horrified to see my views and name being used as โevidenceโ in Polish domestic political attacks on
@sikorskiradek
and others. This is without my consent or knowledge.
3/5 Putin calculates (probably correctly) that the West will huff and puff but no more. if so, he walks away with a geopolitical trophy at minimal cost. (and don't forget other gains, ie Belarus). He's also exposed weakwilledness and disunity, and Ukraine's loneliness.
Estonia had its first digital cabinet meeting in 2000. Encrypted, with digital signatures. 20 years later UK catches up with 1st meeting. it uses hackable, unencrypted
@zoom_us
and no remote digital signing. But hey,
#easterneurope
Proszฤ
@Cenckiewicz
@michalrachon
@SamPereira_
i
@MiAdamczyk
o usuniฤcie moich wywiadรณw z internetowej wersji tendencyjnego filmu "Reset". Nie popieram jego redakcyjnego punktu widzenia. Chcฤ publicznego zapewnienia, ลผe w pozostaลej czฤลci serii nie zostanฤ uลผyte ลผadne klipy.
Konstantin Pรคts was born on this day 150 years ago. He died in 1956, incarcerated in Soviet penal psychiatric hospitals because he "persistently claimed to be president of Estonia". Which he was.
@michalrachon
@Cenckiewicz
ลผeby byลo caลkiem jasne. cofam wszelkie zgody, wyraลบne lub dorozumiane, na translacjฤ moich sลรณw i wizerunku w Paลstwa programie. Zgลosiliลcie siฤ do mnie, abym wziฤ ล udziaล w programie o stosunkach โEuropy Zachodniej z Rosjฤ โ w okresie poprzedzajฤ cym wojnฤ z Ukrainฤ .
Andrei Sidorov from the
#Moscow
State University: "I am not sure that
#Ukraine
, like many other small states, should retain its
#sovereignty
after our special operation. In today's world, sovereignty is based, whether we like it or not, on force".
Three decades ago, Lithuanians lined up in a human chain together with their Latvian and Estonian brothers. The Baltic Way sent the message of Freedom. Today Belarusians are sending their message to the world: they want to be free.
Liz Truss's visit to Moscow (thread 1/12). I'm delighted by the government's words but infuriated by the lack of real deeds. Britain's (for now largely symbolic) military presence in the Baltics and Poland disguises a failure to deal with the real problem: Russian money in London
If every one of my followers buys a bottle of
#Australian
wine for a week for the next year that will be 3.8m bottles. Letโs start now and show the Chinese party-state that the free world will not be bullied. And please retweet.
#freedomwine
China is about to wipe out, with the stroke of a pen, Australia's biggest export markets for wine, lobster and a few other commodities, against WTO rules and a bi-lateral FTA. Seems like it should be a bigger deal, and not just in Australia....
please explain why Soviet flags are welcome at your demonstrations. They represent the darkest years in history for the Ukrainians (and Russians, actually, and pretty much everyone except chekists )
This is a sizzler. Please read it. Then read it again. Searing insights. Deep analysis. Highly alarming. (Ps I particularly liked the โNew Cold Warโ bit. )
Itโs the anniversary of the Tartu Peace Treaty today. Soviet Russia promised to respect Estonian sovereignty and borders, for ever. Jaan Soots and Victor Mutt from the Estonian delegation both died in Soviet captivity two decades later.
For my Polish readers: Znam
@radeksikorski
osobiลcie od lat 80-tych. Moลผna siฤ nie zgadzaฤ z jego stanowiskiem politycznym - to normalne w demokracji. Twierdzenie, ลผe jest โrosyjskim agentemโ jest rรณwnie absurdalne, co godne pogardy.
Jeลli jestem wystarczajฤ co wiarygodny, aby udzieliฤ wywiadu dla tego programu, prawdopodobnie jestem wystarczajฤ co wiarygodny, aby zลoลผyฤ skargฤ w tej sprawie
11/11 verdict โ sounds nice but wonโt work. Britainโs economic/financial regulation/supervision/prosecution arrangements are chronically underfunded, demoralised, fragmented, useless. Changing this will require lots of money over a long period of time, not a new blob on a chart.
5/11 Asset Freezes on 100 new entities and individuals โ including all manufacturers that support war machine.
Verdict -- Nice, but needs to be 5000 not 100, and to include family members
and of course he may actually launch air raids on Kyiv within hours. The main point to remember is that Putin has the initiative. It's like a game of tennis where one player always serves.
Lithuania's foreign minister is a doughty champion for freedom in a neighbouring country. Why is a country of 3m people in a precarious geographic location so brave, and so many bigger and safer countries are not?
Ukrainians bought us time. We are not using it wisely. Whereโs the sense of urgency? Iโm in Latvia today where people understand completely whatโs at stake. If Ukraine breaks, the Baltics are next.
The ๐บ๐ฆ mayor of Kramatorsk: โLet me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we donโt get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, weโre fucked.โ
Chilling scenes from brutal arrests of protesters in Moscow. When I was there for a few short days this spring, the tension of unrest could be felt beneath Moscowโs beautiful facade. Continue to be inspired by the brave Russians on the streets.
More than 2 million people have signed the
@Justice4Ukr
petition calling for a Special international Tribunal to prosecute Russiaโs crime of aggression. I encourage you all to add your name and share it with
#SpecialTribunalNow
.
A ๐งต on why this matters.
8/11 New UWO (Unexplained Wealth Orders) before Easter
Verdict: these are potentially useful but why is it taking so long ? And a lot of Kremlin cronies have perfectly good explanations for their wealth eg "I run an oil company"
People who think problems with Russia are new have not been paying attention. Here's my regular reminder of the great Lennart Meri's speech in Hamburg in 1994 Thank goodness the Baltic states got into NATO when they did.
@john_sipher
@natvogel
@GrayConnolly
โIf you want the Russians to take something seriously give to the Germans and tell them itโs a secretโ โ I was told this in Bonn in 1986 by an exasperated NATO ally. Iโm not sure much has changed.
3/11 Russian private companies will be banned from raising funds, taking loans on London financial markets.
Verdict โ annoying for them, not so much for the Kremlin. If Putin cared about Russian economy he would not be fighting a war
Kissinger told me in Potsdam in 1996 that the Baltics should never join Nato. In London in 2007 he told me heโd always been in favour. In 2021 he told me russia would regret attacking Ukraine
Dan "the Legal Juggernaut" Kaszeta ๐ฑ๐น ๐บ๐ฆ
In 1988, at an event at my univ, Henry Kissinger told me I was hopeless naive for wanting to see the Baltic states re-achieve their independence. He told me that the Soviet Union was an enduring phenomenon that would likely never go away and that I should give up on Lithuania.
"Speak Romanian."
Moldovan anti-corruption official Veronica Drฤgฤlin rejects Russian speaking journalist for not asking her question in the official language of the country, Romanian.
"I can't help you, I don't speak Russian."
๐ท๐ด๐ฒ๐ฉ
Iโm delighted to lead the
@LibDems
campaign to win Cities of London and Westminster at the next general election. Thanks to the local party for choosing me and to colleagues at HQ for their support.
If you are called "stop the war" surely you should be campaigning against Russia's war against Ukraine? It's been going on since 2014. Ukraine didn't attack Russia.
2/11 One of the most influential Russian banks, VTB, faces a full asset freeze in the UK. Russian banks can no longer use sterling, or the British financial system, to make payments.
Verdict: this will inconvenience Russian bankers. They will find ways round it.
The hotline for foreign volunteers wishing to help Ukraine is now running.
The number to call is +380442370002 , and press ' 2 ' for English.
It works.
For nearly 25 years we have been kicking can down the road, trying to contain Putin's imperialism with dialogue and diplomacy while he continues to ignore borders and flatten cities. ๐งต๐
I worked with
@HJoyceGender
at the
@TheEconomist
for years. We shared an office. Read her book โ like it or loathe it โ before you criticise it. And if you call her an antisemite you show know nothing about her, or about antisemitism, but you reveal a lot about yourself.
7/11 Export bans of all dual use items to Russian including high end tech, electronics, telecoms and aerospace โ
Verdict โ Good, but are we ready for Russian countermeasures?
For anyone thinking that Ukraine would benefit from "finlandisation" here are a few quick correctives. 1) Finland did not enjoy or consent to being "finlandized" -- it was the result of Soviet military pressure.
Oฤekรกval bych,
@JakubKulhanek
, ลพe panu velvyslanci Bฤloruska sdฤlรญte, ลพe mรก 24 hodin na to, aby si sbalil kufry.
Ostrรฝ protest je totalitnรญ moci jen pro smรญch.
this is huge --
@anne_mariebrady
is one of the world's top China-watchers. This is what Twitter's just done. And you can't search for her either. (see below, also) A perfect example of how the CCP exerts its control over our political systems.
If Ukrainian intelligence is behind this it's a masterstroke -- Zero cost/risk, massive impact. 1) dupe Prigozhin into believing he has insider backing in Moscow. 2) when he's set off, pull the rug. Wagner neutralised. Kremlin humiliated.
If you're gonna listen to any speech about
#Ukraine
๐บ๐ฆ, let it be this one.
The Kenya ambassador to the UNSC perfectly explains how people across Africa understand Ukraine, and what the Kremlin's acts of aggression mean in our post-colonial world.
I thought Ukraine would liberate Kherson by Christmas. This is six weeks early. A huge lump of blame is now fizzing round the Kremlin like ball lightning, ready to frazzle whomever it lands on.
Iโm about to talk on
@talkRADIO
about
#navalny
. Crack down on the Western enablers of the corruption he exposes. Freeze and seize assets. Tell everyone involved in his persecution they are not welcome in the West. Families too.
Failure to publish the ISC report on Russian influence in Britain is a sign of how serious that influence is. If it wasnโt embarrassed, Downing Street would publish.
I talked a senior Ukrainian official about sanctions. They believe 6,000 Russian officials and oligarchs should still be sanctioned. West has more work to do.