Cullen Roche @cullenroche Twitter profile

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Cullen Roche

3 years

I am THRILLED to announce the official launch of the Discipline Fund ETF, which is now trading on the NYSE under the ticker DSCF. $DSCF

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@kalobees

Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

When the economy crashes, but you save the stock market.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

5 years

Just finished a Karl Marx autobiography. Karl: - was born into a wealthy family. - had trouble holding a job. - was a media influencer via various failed newspapers. - relied on a pension from his friend who got his $ from his dad. Karl was...the first Millennial.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

$35 TRILLION in global market value erased since the beginning of the year. That's 14% of all global wealth. Includes the $1T losses in crypto. For reference - 2008 was a 19% decline.* * Doesn't include non-financial assets such as housing.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

5 years

Dear Tariff Man, Countries don’t pay tariffs. US customs holds imported goods until the tariff is paid by the AMERICAN importing company. Please call US Customs at 1-877-227-5511 so you can learn how this works and stop taxing US companies/citizens.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

5 years

....I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

The US is gonna have 7%+ mortgage rates soon. At record high prices the math doesn't work on a 5% rate for most people. At 7% the housing market comes to a screeching halt.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Yesterday I became the wealthiest man I'll ever be. Happy actual birthday to little miss Della Beaux Roche.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

"Look, it's easy. You just buy the one with the stupidest name and it goes up 1,000%."

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

In case you ever wondered how we ended up with central banks - I present "stable" coins:

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

9 years

The stock market is the only market where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store....

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

11 months

The US visa program is the worst. We needed a nanny for a few days this week and hired a 25 year old who graduated with an engineering degree from UCLA. Her visa is expiring and she's being forced to move back to Spain. She's smart, energetic, wants to be here, but can't. WTF!

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

Commodities collapsing. Dollar surging. Yield curve inverting. The combination of these events are not good signs.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

Grandpa: "7% mortgage rates aren't high." Me: "Get off my lawn. You bought your house for $20,000 and refi'd all the way down."

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

Here's how this works: 25: I want to get rich and get off the grid. 45: I'm rich and off grid. 55: I want to rent an apartment with no maintenance costs within walking distance to everything.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Literally all I do as an investment advisor: No. No. Don't buy that. No, the Fed's decision doesn't matter. No. No, CNBC doesn't have good ideas. No. Stop immediately. No, that doesn't make it okay, either. No. Stop, don't do that. No.

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@FaciePrima

4 years

Literally all I do as an attorney: No. No. Seriously, no. Like, how did you even think this was a good idea. Stop immediately. No, that doesn't make it okay, either. No. Stop. Stop it, you can’t do that. No.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I haven't felt this bearish about housing since the 2005/6 period. Check this out. The portion of disposable income relative to house prices is higher than the housing bubble.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

The seated man is who you should strive to be during every stock market downturn.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

10 months

Your periodic reminder that T-Bills are paying 5.5% without state taxes. This is the highest rate in over 20 years.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

@elonmusk Get rid of the "for you" tab. The beauty of Twitter is that we curate our followers and see the people we want to see, not the people the algorithm says we should see.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

TradFi 101: never tell Ken Griffin how much money you're willing to spend on something.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I am so happy to announce that I am in big, big trouble. Happy birthday little lady. #2xGirlDad

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

9 months

I loved this line in the Powell speech: "we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies". What a humble and honest way to describe the way they're trying to navigate Monetary Policy.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

If you had bought $200,000 of lumber in March of 2020 you'd now have $1,600,000 of lumber in a house that is being eaten by termites.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I Am Legend starting to feel uncomfortably realistic now.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

M2 money supply growth now back to historical trend.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

This USD/RUB currency collapse is something else.... The optimistic view here (if there is one) is that the Russian economic collapse is going to be so significant that the probability of a Putin regime collapse has to be rising.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

“Retirement” is the real scam. “Spend your 40 most youthful years focused primarily on a corporation in exchange for 10-15 elderly years of freedom.” 👀👀👀

marlonhumphrey.eth

@marlon_humphrey

2 years

401k is a scam

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

Maybe the most important chart about the US economy these days. House prices vs rents. How much will this mean revert?

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

11 months

This policy where US University graduates don't get automatic citizenship has to be one of the dumbest policies in existence.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

5 years

My year in a Tweet: Jan-Oct: Clients: “Why are we overweight bonds?” Me: “Because stocks are riskier than normal” Oct-Dec: Clients: “WHY DO WE OWN ANY STOCKS???” Me:

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

I know it's hard, but... 1. Don't short stocks. 2. Don't day trade. 3. Don't treat your savings like poker chips. 4. Don't pay high fees. 5. Don't put pineapple on pizza.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

The YOLO economy is coming. There's an energy around town that I've never felt. So much pent up demand it's wild. The economy is gonna be nuts for the rest of this year....

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 month

Very unpopular take: At some point in the next 5 years interest rates will be 2-3% and no one will be talking about how the govt interest burden is a problem.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

USD purchasing power has fallen 99% since 1913. Also, since 1913: USA real household net worth: highest in the world. USA real GDP: highest in the world. USA Real median income: 5th highest in the world. Global poverty: collapsed. Global Life expectancy: All time high.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

It's funny, but also it's not funny.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

@awealthofcs Every. Damn. Year.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

M2 money supply growth absolutely melting. Down to 3.1% year over year.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Our retirement accounts crashed, but then we got a sneak peak at what it's like to be home all the time and realized we'd rather not retire.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

This is art.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

7 months

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ Madoff started EXACTLY the same way SBF did. He commingled client funds, lost a ton and couldn’t climb out of the hole. The only difference is SBF got caught right away. DO NOT GET IT TWISTED.

All In with Chris Hayes

@allinwithchris

7 months

Author Michael Lewis joins @chrislhayes to discuss “Going Infinite,” a new book about indicted crypto executive Sam Bankman-Fried. "The alleged crime kind of makes no sense," says Lewis.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

If Jack was serious about hyperinflation he'd require all his advertisers and vendors to pay him in BTC, not USD. He won't do that because he needs/wants USD and knows his revenues would collapse because the demand for USD is much stronger than he implies.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

I finally cut the cord recently and switched to YouTube TV, which, IMO is the first comprehensive one stop alternative to cable. $50 a month, unlimited DVR, all WiFi. How do cable companies survive this?

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

I might be a boomer because this NFT shit makes absolutely no sense to me.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

5 years

I always thought that anonymity was the main problem with the Internet and bad actors, but then I started using Nextdoor and holy shit - everyone on this site wants to murder their neighbors over everything.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

I want everyone to have a better understanding of money and finance so they can make smarter financial decisions. This page is some of the best stuff I've found (or written) about understanding money. I hope you find it helpful.

Understanding Money & Investing

If you start with the following book, white paper and videos you’ll have a very solid starting point for understanding money: Pragmatic Capitalism – What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and...

disciplinefunds.com

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

@chenweihua Shame on the US media for not accurately reporting China's legendary gold medal domination in ping pong, diving, air gun, badminton and the youth weightlifting division.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Warren Buffett on cap gains taxes:

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Here's an amazing chart. It took 10 years to get back to potential GDP trend following the GFC. It will take us 1 year to get back to trend this time.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

If Trump's term were to end today his economic record would be as follows: 1) 1.37% avg annual GDP, the lowest ever for a President. 2) 800,000 lost jobs. The most by any President over his term. 3) $7 Trillion increase in the national debt, the largest ever.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

@TheStalwart They're not real tho. Real estate is a better example. My neighbor is a sweet old lady with little/no income who bought her house in 1940 for $15,000. The house is now worth $3MM. She doesn't actually have $3MM though and it would be unfair to tax her as if she does.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I'm starting to get strong "we will crush inflation via recession" vibes from Powell.....

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

Highest inflation in 40 years and the government spent $430 billion dollar last month. Almost entirely because of student loan forgiveness. Sigh.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

5 years

“We pass through this world but once, so do now any good you can do, and show now any kindness you can show, for we shall not pass this way again.” - John Bogle loved that William Penn quote. Better yet, he actually lived it.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

9 months

The US government is the highest income generating entity in human history and issues the dominant reserve currency. If the US govt isn't AAA rated then nothing is.

Michael McKee

@mckonomy

9 months

*UNITED STATES RATINGS CUT TO AA+ FROM 'AAA' BY FITCH

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

6 years

John Oliver on Bitcoin: "Everything you don't understand about money combined with everything you don't understand about computers." Ha. Yep.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

The main reason the USD is the world's reserve currency isn't because of "petro dollars" and Bretton Woods. It's mainly because the US consumer is the wealthiest in the world and foreign countries import dollars in exchange for doing business with the world's biggest consumer.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

Taylor Rule would have the Fed Funds Rate at...9.5%. 👀👀👀

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Facts: QE didn't make Japanese stocks do much of anything. QE didn't make Euro stocks do anything for the last 7+ years. QE didn't do much for US stocks ex-tech. But most people think QE makes stocks go up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

7 months

This has gotta be the chart of the decade. Monthly mortgage payment Via @M_McDonough

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Breakfast burrito - the only asset class that never underperforms.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

Do you think the biggest fraudster of this cycle has been exposed yet? Methinks not…

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Kinda feels like we're moving into a phase where people are beginning to think that life needs to go on because we might never have a vaccine or that these viruses might always be with us. Anyone else getting that impression?

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

My book list for 2023: Week 1: The Giving Tree Week 2: If you Give a Mouse a Cookie Week 3: Brown Bear, Brown Bear Week 4: Goodnight Moon Week 5: Chicka Chicka Boom Boom Week 6: The Cat in the Hat Week 7: Love You Forever ....

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Investing is a long-term game that punishes people with a short-term mindset.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Client sent me this.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

This is my newest client. I onboard all clients by first placing them in a straight jacket to ensure good behavior. * I promise the baby pics will stop soon.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

When I was 10 I was the smallest kid at the Georgetown B-ball camp. John Thompson lifted me up next to the tallest kid in camp & said "a small man with a big heart is stronger than a big man with a small heart". One of my most impactful childhood moments. He'll be missed.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

6 years

I like the Warren Buffett "get rich slow" recipe: 1) Be super duper smart. 2) Be a white male son of a US Congressman. 3) Fortuitously meet Ben Graham in grad school. 4) Get really lucky at times.

Steve Burns

@SJosephBurns

6 years

Jeff Bezos: “[I asked Warren Buffett,] your investment thesis is so simple…you’re the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?” Warren Buffett: ”Because nobody wants to get rich slow.” via @dmuthuk

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

Incredible collapse in M2 money supply growth. People were very concerned this would cause hyperinflation back in 2020....

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

I'm not an efficient market guy, but when the market for an asset grows to over $1 trillion you need to reconsider the thesis that that asset is "worthless".

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

3 years

JPMORGAN'S DIMON: I PERSONALLY THINK BITCOIN IS WORTHLESS

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Sir, hedge funds underperformed the S&P for the last 10+ years because they are, um, hedged. So, if things collapse they will outperform because they are, um, hedged.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

This was the hardest thing I've ever written, but there's a good message in the end.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

@morganhousel @jack This. And the ACTUAL quantity of reserves held is 59%, not even remotely close to any other currency held in reserve. Via the IMF:

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

This is a crisis. The leading candidate for the Democratic Party knows less economics than the current President.

Bernie Sanders

@BernieSanders

4 years

This is a crisis. We need national rent control.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I think Bill has this backwards. The markets are falling because they're worried that the Fed is on the verge of a huge policy mistake by slamming the brakes on an economy that was already on the verge of slowing down.

Bill Ackman

@BillAckman

2 years

Inflation is out of control. Inflation expectations are getting out of control. Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the @federalreserve will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job, and that is what

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

Your "high yield" savings account is "4X the national average", "backed" by a bank that almost failed in the financial crisis and yields 3.3% Goldman Sachs thinks you're too stupid to know about T-Bills yielding 4.8% that are 5X the national average and supported by the Fed.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Area man amasses billions of dollars and keeps working all the while believing that people who obtain a 4 month payment of ~$10,000 will stop working.

Jeffrey Gundlach

@TruthGundlach

4 years

A Yale “study” last week concluded upping unemployment benefits to levels above what the lost jobs were paying does not provide a disincentive to to return to work. Yeah, right. And winning the lottery motivates the winners to take a second job.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

I wrote about money and why scarcity or a fixed supply isn't necessarily a good thing.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

The psychology of the stock market, in one image.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Needed a notary. Didn't want someone in the house or to go there. Downloaded @notarize app, uploaded document, did 2 minute video call with a notary in Florida and had my notarized document a few minutes later. Amazing.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Stupid pandemic ruined all our FRED charts forever.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

18 months in and I've pretty much mastered this dad thing.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

Someone asked me what it's like to have a super viral tweet. Well, it's pretty amazing, actually. You get about 100 new followers and you make $0. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

When the economy crashes, but you save the stock market.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

It's amazing how much Bitcoin has trounced gold since the start of the pandemic.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I'm getting tons of price cut alerts from Redfin. Anyone else seeing similar signs of price weakness in real estate?

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Damn. Charlie Munger has run out of every last f$ck he has left.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

If Twitter starts banning financial websites for posting sensationalist nonsense then there won't be any financial content left on Twitter.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

This is too perfect.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

"Asset price inflation" is a term created by people who were wrong about hyperinflation, remained permabearish about the economy and now feel better about missing the stock market rally by convincing themselves it's all a fake asset bubble.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

7 years

70 year old billionaire who's had everything in life handed to him on a silver platter and he still complains every single day.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

7 years

It's very sad that Republicans, even some that were carried over the line on my back, do very little to protect their President.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

Sorry to burst the mainstream narrative around this, but the big winners from GameStop are...rich people. YTD Gains From Gamestop: Top 10 Institutions: +$13B Top 10 Execs and Directors: +$300MM Donald Foss: +$1.1B Ryan Cohen: +$2.7B

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

1 year

A guy running a Ponzi scheme posted his bail using money from the Ponzi scheme.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

3 years

I can sympathize. I got banned from the Bogleheads forum for saying that everyone is an active investor.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

I saw this on TikTok and it's a really useful way to understand the Fed's current interest rate policy. In short, the Fed is trying to find out where inflation falls, but they have to f$*k around a lot to achieve this. Hope that helps.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

10 months

Something strange happens to a man’s brain around the age of 40 where he just wants to be left alone and grow plants.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

The economy will recover when this passes. The people we lose in the coming months will be gone forever. Don't sacrifice people for short-term economic gains.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

6 years

Amazing chart here from Merrill showing the various bearish narratives that have evolved over the course of this bull market:

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

2 years

S&P 500 is down 18.2% YTD. A 50/50 Stock/Bond portfolio is down 13.4% YTD. Even with the worst bond bear market in decades bonds are STILL providing significant stability to portfolios.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

This debate is worse than 2020.

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Cullen Roche

@cullenroche

4 years

The stock market is a second level thinking mechanism. While most of us see the world for what it is the stock market is always trying to see the world for what it might become.

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