Excited announce my national best-selling book (US, UK, China, and Canada) will release a FULLY REVISED AND UPDATED edition in July 2024 (Amazon: )
The original was selected as a Best Book of 2022 by Amazon, Hudson Booksellers, The Guardian, FT China, The
Google has paid Apple an estimated $120B since 2010 to be the default search engine on Safari/iOS, with $19.3B estimated this year alone (Source: GS)
In 2022, Google's payment was equal to a third of its net income and increased Apple's by 25%
(From: )
NEW: The Tremendous yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024
---
If youβre a player or casual observer, the video game industry seems to have it all. Yet growth is now illusory, layoffs abundant, and game/studio shutdowns common. Why? How might things change?
In Epic Games v Google, "Jury unanimously answered yes to every question put before them β that Google has monopoly power in the Android app distribution markets and in-app billing services markets, that Google did anticompetitive things in those markets... [con't]
[NEW] Parallel Bets, Microsoft, and AI Strategies
---
Thoughts on corporate strategy formulation in the βage of AI,β the messiness of these strategies, and lessons from the past.
One way to better understand gaming in 2024
Monopoly Go is the biggest game in years, generating $2B in 11 months
@stephentotilo
's GameFile reports the customer acquisition spend was "under $500 million" - likely twice the *production budget* of The Last of Us 2, and more than
NEW: Scopely's Monopoly Go, which has made $2 billion in revenue since its 2023 launch, is not a game to be ignored
I spoke to an exec there about the key metric behind the game's success and Scopely's ambitions
Plus: My surprising experience playing the game for a month
Wow. RTrack finds Roblox $RBLX MAUs hit 355MM in December 2023. Larger than the de-duplicated Switch + Xbox + Minecraft + PlayStation MAU
Wonder if DAUs will finally cross 75MM in Q4
(CC/
@rtrack_live
)
[NEW] On Spatial Computing, Metaverse, the Terms Left Behind and Ideas Renewed
---
Whatβs old is new again, but sometimes reinterpreted, distorted, or weighted with what came in between. What matters, doesnβt, and where most agree weβre headed regardless.
Published 5 years and 3 days before the Disney x Epic deal.
This piece was actually my first on any of Fortnite, Epic Games, or the Metaverse (and the still years-from-popular-mention M-Word was indeed the point of the essay)
Peacock: Way ahead on subscribers and revenue, but waaaaaaay behind on profit. These points are connected, but cume losses now 5x what was originally pitched to investors in 2020, and 2023 operating profit ($2.7B), versus ($2.5B) in 2022
Nikkei: Japan to crack down on Apple and Google app store monopolies - focusing mainly on four areas: app stores and payments, search, browsers, and operating systems
I loved TRUE DETECTIVE S4. It's as good as you've heard, eerie and moody in the best way, with terrific performances across the board. A spiritual return to S1.
We binged as fast as we could through the holiday celebrations.
While a lot of the controversy on Apple's DMA "compliance" focuses on its install fee, the refusal to support alternative stores/distribution on iPad (or TV/Watch/VisionOS) seems undercovered.
Not only does it appear to directly violate the EU's September decision (image), it
NEW: The Tremendous yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024
---
If youβre a player or casual observer, the video game industry seems to have it all. Yet growth is now illusory, layoffs abundant, and game/studio shutdowns common. Why? How might things change?
Despite Disney's troubles, pricing power w/ 100MM core customers is telling
Ad-Free Disney+:
β’ Nov 2019: Launch at $7 (3-year deal offered at $3.90)
β’ May 2021: $8 (+$1 v. Launch)
β’ Aug 2022: $11 (+$4 v. Launch, 3-year deal expires)
β’ Oct 2023: $14 (+$7, or 100% v. Launch)
Updated for Q3 2023:
Lifetime VC and PE direct investment in crypto start-ups now at $89.5B (*excludes secondary purchases)
Half of this money was invested after September 2021
Q3'23 is 6th quarterly decline. 2023 trending for <$9B versus $30.2B (2021) and $29.3B (2022)
HBO's Outstanding Drama/Comedy/Limited Series Record at the Emmys since 'House of Cards'
β’ Nominated in 30 of 33 categories (90%)
β’ Average of 1.6 nominations per category
β’ 53 of 217 total nominations (24%)
β’ Won 16 of 33 possible categories (48%)
No one else is close.
[NEW] Parallel Bets, Microsoft, and AI Strategies
---
Thoughts on corporate strategy formulation in the βage of AI,β the messiness of these strategies, and lessons from the past.
"Decentraland, arguably the largest and most relevant Metaverse"
Uh. Where was the fact check on that one
This is like saying Apple's "Ping" was the largest and most relevant social network
βDecentraland, arguably the largest and most relevant Metaverse platform, had only 38 active daily users. The Guardian reported that the monetized content ecosystem in Metaβs flagship product Horizon Worlds produced no more than $470 in revenue globally.β
I finished THE STREAMING BOOK () in March 2023 with a discussion of how Sony and Microsoft seemed like inevitable re-entrants in the streaming wars, and that early moves were already visible
PlayStation Plus now adding 2,000 movies (Including Spider-Verse)
Introducing Sony Pictures Core (formerly Bravia Core), coming to PS5 and PS4 today. The entertainment app gives PlayStation players exclusive benefits including early access to select Sony Pictures films.
First details:
In 2021, FaZe targeted $1.3B IPO, then $1B, then debuted in 2022 at $725MM
Just sold for $16MM, having raised $40MM in VC + reported $60MM in SPAC
(My 2020 Essay: Esports and the Dangers of Serving at the Pleasure of a King )
NYT-as-a-gaming company in another picture (Via
@ankbul
, Scopely's founder and CTO)
Ranks third behind Call of Duty ($35 billion since 2002) and Monopoly Go ($2B+ in 11 months, biggest new game in years) on iOS
More folks are surprised (or alarmed) by this info than I would have thought. In 2000, 40% of U.S. newspaper revenue came from the sale of classifieds - a greater share than either subscriber or ad revenue.
Engagement overall was boosted by functions such as stock prices, movie
NEW on
@TheTerminal
: Apple is raising the price of Apple TV+ from $6.99 to $9.99 (and $69 to $99 annually), Apple Arcade from $4.99 to $6.99 and News+ from $9.99 to $12.99. Apple One bundle prices also going up + hikes are coming internationally.
Disney's ever-diversifying approach to immersive: Vision Pro partnership w/ Apple, virtual theme park w/ Epic, AR/VR/LBE in DIS parks, many game licensing deals (inc. w/ Sony)...
Brings to mind this October piece on using Parallel Bets to manage uncertainty in must-win segments
[NEW] Parallel Bets, Microsoft, and AI Strategies
---
Thoughts on corporate strategy formulation in the βage of AI,β the messiness of these strategies, and lessons from the past.
Disney on new partnership with Fortnite :)
"An Expansive and Open Games and Entertainment Universe Connected to Fortnite"
"A persistent, open... interoperable ecosystem"
[NEW] On Spatial Computing, Metaverse, the Terms Left Behind and Ideas Renewed
---
Whatβs old is new again, but sometimes reinterpreted, distorted, or weighted with what came in between. What matters, doesnβt, and where most agree weβre headed regardless.
Meta's Reality Labs P&L
Q4'23:
β’ $1.1B rev
β’ $5.7B costs
β’ $4.7B operating loss*
My cumulative model est:
β’ $11.1B rev
β’ $63.7B costs
β’ $52.6B op loss*
Note this is an accounting determination; bulk is R&D investments for products/features yet to ship (e.g. optical AR)
Joined Meta CTO
@boztank
to chat Metaverse, AI, Vision Pro's choices + tradeoffs (Boz: "I was ready to say the best value is with us, fuck that, the best headset is the Quest 3"), my next book (next tweet), and more
SPOT:
iOS:
The NBA built a 27-million-pixel basketball court (700,000 square inches) for the All-Star Game
The display for the Apple Vision Pro (made by Sony) has 2 square inches... and 23 million pixels
In Deadpool 3, the first entry under Disney ownership (and which is expected to cross into the MCU)
Deadpool and Wolverine fight in the literal wreckage of the 20th Century Fox monument
Pixar, Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, and NVIDIA Form Alliance for OpenUSD to Drive Open Standards for 3D Content
(Big news that seems to release Pixar's control over USD, which Jensen Huang has declared the "HTML of the Metaverse")
48% of public companies are unprofitable, up from 8% in 1960, 16% in 1980 and 35% in 1990. Flat v 2000, but average margin dropped
Almost all share growth comes from those which previously held 0-5% profit margins, but doubtlessly saw little benefit to achieving such a margin
US video game revenues though July (no adjustments for inflation, which is up ~19% since 2019):
β’ 2019: $22.5B ($26.5B in 2023 dollars)
β’ 2020: $29.4B
β’ 2021: $33.9B
β’ 2022: $30.3B
β’ 2023: $30.8B
Due to (supposed?) strength of secular trends, medium-term challenges of VIDEO GAME revenues are overlooked
In real terms, spend down 18% since 2021 alone despite substantial cost increases (and $60 to $70 price hikes)
Real spend up only 11% total since pre-COVID, or 2.7% CAGR
1/ Three adaptations I'm helping produce were unveiled at SDCC!
β’Silent Hill: Ascension
β’Borderlands EchoVision
β’DC Heroes United (debuted on stage by DC President Jim Lee!)
Each is a canonical interactive series where millions of viewers influence the story in real-time
Gross reported layoffs in gaming:
β’ 2022: 6,500 (record)
β’ 2023: 10,500 (new record)
β’ 2024 (Day 25): 5,850
(Is not net of hiring, does not include all layoffs)
NEW: The Tremendous yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024
---
If youβre a player or casual observer, the video game industry seems to have it all. Yet growth is now illusory, layoffs abundant, and game/studio shutdowns common. Why? How might things change?
Meta Reality Labs P&L (Q1'19-Q1'2024)
Usual disclaimer: Costs includes R&D and other investments into products that have yet to even ship (e.g. optical AR devices, electromyography, games) or been scrapped (some watches, Portal), plus device subsidies, marketing, and some M&A
Ooph. Circana estimating that the "optimistic case" for 2024 US consumer spend on video games is a 2% YoY decline (2023 was already 4.1% down from 2021 *before inflation*).
Circana warns it could be a 10% decline or worse.
NEW: The Tremendous yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024
---
If youβre a player or casual observer, the video game industry seems to have it all. Yet growth is now illusory, layoffs abundant, and game/studio shutdowns common. Why? How might things change?
Meta's CTO asked me to come chat metaverse, sci-fi, AI, simulations, and emerging hardware (Apple Vision Pro included). A great hourlong podcast.
Links below!
Spotify:
Apple:
Only a matter of time before I got *the*
@ballmatthew
on the podcast to talk metaverse, sci-fi, simulations, and emerging hardware (Apple Vision Pro included). Donβt miss this one:
Rerunning my May 2020 essay for no reason at all
Digital Theme Park Platforms: The Most Important Media Businesses of the Future
---
An essay on theme parks, platforms, and the importance of hugs.
Mar 8, 2020
I've known two founders to go through SPEEDRUN in the last year and they both benefited greatly and recommend it publicly and privately to all other gaming (and gaming adjacent) founders. Glad it's running back another edition so soon.
BIG NEWS:
i'm investing $30M in the next 45 days via the a16z SPEEDRUN program π
Yes, $750k per startup that joins the SPEEDRUN program plus obv it'll be a great way to work together on something. So come work with me at a16z's SPEEDRUN program -- we'll invest, work with you,
(I'm still not sure why the narrative Apple sold out of launch Vision Pros stock is continuing when one can still order for Feb 2 pick-up. Either it didn't sell out, or it did and many have cancelled since?)
As a Ukrainian-Canadian, I've been especially looking forward to this Ukrainian local translation of my book - the 19th language, with 6 to come - and touched that it was still possible despite the atrocious, ongoing invasion that preceded the English publication by 18 months
Gross reported layoffs* in video gaming:
β’ 2022: 8,500 (record)
β’ 2023: 10,500 (new record)
β’ 2024, Day 59: 8,000 + "several hundred" at ESL FACEIT
(*Not net of new hires, does not include all layoffs)
NEW: The Tremendous yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024
---
If youβre a player or casual observer, the video game industry seems to have it all. Yet growth is now illusory, layoffs abundant, and game/studio shutdowns common. Why? How might things change?
Exclusive:
@nytimes
to debut new generative AI ad-targeting tool later this year
β Will start testing it w beta partners in Q2
β Tool will align ads with relevant articles in real-time based on the ad campaign's objectives
More on
@axios
PUBG-maker Krafton and Naver to launch blockchain-based virtual world platform Overture in H1 2024, using Unreal Engine 5 and the JV's pupose-built blockchain, Settlus, to run its βtransparent and secure... create-to-earn economy"
Nice from Ben:
"I agree w/ Ball that βMetaverseβ is the best term... that it describes more of an end state than a transition is a challenge but exactly what makes it right... The Metaverse is the β3D Internetβ to the extent it is interoperable with + additive to the Internet"
A year ago, the bets for biggest film of the year were mostly:
β’ The Little Mermaid
β’ Super Mario Bros.
β’ Fast X
β’ The Flash
β’ Aquaman 2
β’ Mission Impossible 7
Seems assured Barbie will win the year's revenue and profit crown
[NEW] Parallel Bets, Microsoft, and AI Strategies
---
Thoughts on corporate strategy formulation in the βage of AI,β the messiness of these strategies, and lessons from the past.
and that Epic was injured by that behavior." They decided Google has an illegal tie between its Google Play app store and its Google Play Billing payment services, too, and that its distribution agreement... [con't]
@borrowed_ideas
Two years after iPhone...and then two years after that.
Note this is a carrier that didn't even have the iPhone for close to four years
(And the carrier that had the highest smartphone penetration)
This remains Popular Mechanics cover from 1995 remains the best tho
The cyberspace homeboy wears a raiders cap, a collared buffalo plaid shirt, and an earring
Microsoft joins Sony in placing cloud game streaming into their highest-priced subscription tier, rather than offering as a free perk to it's basic tier content subscription
BREAKING:
Xbox Live Gold is ending and is being replaced by
#XboxGamePass
Core
You receive:
β’ Online console multiplayer access
β’ catalog of over 24 high quality games on console
β’ Member deals & discounts
Games With Gold is also officially ending. Current Xbox Live Gold
MCU output by year:
2008-'12: 1.2 films annually
2013-'16: 2.0 films annually
2017-'19: 3.0 films annually
2021-'23: 3.3 films + 3.7 TV seasons + 0.7 TV Specials annually
Also... The 365 days from 9 July 2021 - 8 July 2022: 6 films + 5 TV seasons!
A chart showing how much you have to pay Unity for your mobile game, depending no your average per-install revenue.
The existance of the black color on this chart is the BIG problem here.
Do people who came up with this pricing scheme don't know how to use Excel?
Though the exclusion of FTP titles as Fortnite (which was definitely the revenue winner for several years) is a big limitation, the list of the BEST-SELLING game in the United States by year is remarkable.
---
2009 β COD: Modern Warfare 2
2010 β COD: Black Ops
2011 β COD: Modern
Delighted to be a producer on BORDERLANDS ECHOVISION, an interactive series focused on the (mis)adventures of eight tourists marooned on Eden-6 after following the footsteps of storied Vault Hunters.
Millions of viewers will decide who rises to the occasion, survives, or _____.
Apple buckles to DMA compliance criticisms and inquiries again, only days after launch
Will now allow true sideloading (versus needing to install from an app store) and companies to operate their own app stores just for their apps