Hey folks - A little announcement: I start working tomorrow. Without getting into the details I'll be involved in equity research. Tbd how active I can remain on the Twitter scene. It has been a fun ride, but it is time to put my head down and focus. Here is to a new challengeπ».
"Rupert Murdoch's News Corp and digital wagering pioneer Matthew Tripp approached bookmaker PointsBet with a $220 million-plus offer for its Australian division, but were rebuffed by the company's board."
PointsBet rejects $220m bid by Murdoch consortium
Have a little cool story to shareβ¦ hope you all donβt mind.
A few years ago while in grad school I got to meet The Oracle of Omaha
@WarrenBuffett
. It was value investing what got me hooked on finance, and ultimately why I left the sports betting industry down in Costa Rica...
From FanDuel's investor day, here is what Conor Farren, Head of Trading, Risk, and Modeling, had to say about how the sausage gets made....
Video link below (time mark) 1:17:15 and transcript snippets with personal highlights... slides in thread below.
In Illinois... βοΈ
~6 of every 10 parlays played is at FD
~3 of every 10 parlays played is at DKNG
~1 of every 10 parlays played is at Others
~7 of every 10 bets made at FD is a parlay
~5 of every 10 bets made at DKNG is a parlay
~3 of every 10 bets made at Others is a parlay
Shook the hand of the man who wrote the book gifted to me ~20 yrs ago while behind the counter at the Del Rey in CR. That is where it started for me folks. So thank you
@RoxyLasVegas
, Mike Rhoden, and to my offshore 'illegal bookmaker' friend who gave it to me!π
#G2E
#FullCircle
"For years now, anyone who watches sports on TV or the internet has been bombarded with advertisements that insist you arenβtΒ reallyΒ enjoying the game unless you are betting money on it."
That's a problem... βοΈ
Americaβs Bad Bet on Sports Gambling
"Sports betting is a market β much like the stock market. We need financial sector experts in charge of our stateβs sports betting market β not the state lottery."
State lottery is wrong entity to supervise sports gambling
βI thought I would never see another Jackie Gaughan... I am glad he is here when I can enjoy his efforts.β
@RoxyLasVegas
on
@DerekJStevens
@CircaSports
πͺ
Derek Stevens provides service with a smile in Las Vegas
"In a close decision, the Court of Appeals determined fantasy sports is not actually gambling but rather a game of skill..."
Fantasy sports ekes out a win after NY high court legalizes contests
Sippin some coffee and just thinking it is ok I don't have a undergrad degree from a well-known school... turns out I had to pay my way through college and ended up booking bets behind the counter at the Hotel Del Rey & Casino, which happened to be at the time perhaps the...
1/4
"DraftKings alleges thatΒ MichaelΒ HermalynΒ last week took the final steps in an elaborate plot to cripple its VIP operation days before theΒ Super Bowl."
DraftKings Claims VIP Head Plotted To Steal Secrets For Fanatics Before Super Bowl
Was talking to an old bookmaker friend yesterday from the tropics that saw the ridiculous 28% gross hold on parlays in IL... his words: "There is no such thing as risk management when you get to hold that." π
When the Chargers went up 27-0, a bettor bet $1.4 million on them to win the game to net $11,200.
Jacksonville came back and won 31-30.
@DKSportsbook
has confirmed that this bet was indeed made.
Before going to bed tonight I will say a prayer for all the doctors, nurses, healthcare workers, etc. who are/will be working over time... they will be sacrificing a lot in looking out for us all. Good night and be safe peeps.π
Being unemployed was not part of the plan... but it is Good Friday so am just going to go with today as having been a day off. Y'all have a nice weekend. Stay safe. Stay strong. Be kind. Peace.
One thing I will say before going to bed tonight: next time a local gets pinched... or you read about the "dangers" of the offshore market... just remember what has happened these past few days in the stock market... it makes booking bets look like a boy scout picnic on a Sunday.
βTheyβre price gouging their customers, to put it mildly, jamming parlays down their throats...β -- Jeffrey Benson
@CircaSports
' own
@JeffreyBenson12
with a π₯ quote in the
@WSJ
.
Online Sports Bettors Lose More as Parlays Gain Popularity
So Ohio... mobile:
Gross handle $1,090.3 mm
less payouts $864.2 mm
less voids $20.4 mm
less promos $320.0 mm
- equals -
Net revenue -$114.3 mm
And that is all I have to say about that.
Link here:
So what motivates me to be as interested in this industry? Well there you have somewhat of an answer.
At some point we moved to the US and I ended up getting three letters from a well-known school, but tbh that was a piece of cake.
Degrees aren't everything in life.βοΈ
4/4
More importantly to witness the unconditional love that flows through the halls of a hospital amid all the pain, to see the hard work that nurses and doctors put in. This week I saw life in one of its purest ways, without the noise that many times obscures what truly matters. 2/2
Big personal announcement. I'm taking some time away from my job to figure out where I'm going to take my career. For the past 10 yrs I've been blessed to work in the world of investment management and, prior to that, was equally blessed to have worked eight years for bookmakers.
And weβre live online in New York! First wager placed was $500 on Broncos +10.5 spread. A momentous day having previously processed the first regulated on-property bet in New York State.
#weknowwhatittakes
Appreciate all the new follows... I'm just blasting out news I tend to find relevant. That would not be possible without the heavy lifting being done by many of the writers and journalists creating the stuff to begin with. So a big shout out to them always.
This is pretty significant if you ask me.... certainly worth an early morning tweet.
Congrats to the
@DeckPrism
team,
@EdMillerPoker
,
@DavidowMatthew
. One more (a big one) for the home team. πΊπΈ
Pinnacle boosts in-play offering with DeckPrism Sports deal
Happy New Year folks!
2020 brings about a lot of change for me on a professional level... will not be trading bonds in the foreseeable future as I'm going to try to make a more permanent move over to the sports betting landscape.
Pass or fail, the real plunge starts today!
Put together a high level view of sports betting handle, revenue, and tax figures since the repeal of PASPA. Includes NJ, MS, PA, DE, WV, RI... NV too. Best effort was made to ensure numbers are good, but if anyone out there wants to spot check I won't complain.
#SportsBetting
So how did
@DraftKings
get to a $2.7B Enterprise Value (EV)?
This exercise is not meant to dispute their valuation, but rather shed light as to how they possibly arrived at said number, while also highlighting the most important input variables that could impact their...
Alright... wake up, no power in area... cold as f***... and I need coffee (badly)... so it is time to go old school Costa Rica style and pull out the sock coffee maker and boil some water like momma taught me. π€
"Effective immediately you are Ejected from all PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook retail locations..."
Jammin' kiosks.
Meet the Yale med student who made thousands β and then was banned from sports betting sites
"The gang is alleged to have used "advanced technology" to gain an advantage of around 20 to 30 seconds and quickly place bets."
Welp.
Interpol busts gang that hacked World Cup video feed to beat bookmakers
So with FanDuel in the books now.... my tally says that for all of 2021 the big four US operators did about $4.5 billion in net revenue and -$1.9 billion EBITDA across their digital businesses...
A 2020 study by 888... "New Jersey-based female bettors typically won more bets... Women saw average returns of almost 20% on their sports wagers while men lost an average of almost 5%."
Women Bettors Outperforming Men Via Less Emotional Wagering
In Spain...
"Spanish bookmakers must therefore offerΒ house limitsΒ to everyone, regardless of their perceived sharpness. The effect has been dramatic and instantaneous."
Spain Might Show What Happens When Sportsbooks Cannot Limit -
By
@BradAllenNFL
Brushing up my NJ sports betting spreadsheet this morning...
Parlays have accounted for 20.5% of the ~$16.6B cumulative handle in NJ since inception... and 47.0% of the aggregate ~$1.1B in revenue. That is a 15.4% hold. Everything else has held 4.5%... Blends to 6.7%.
βοΈ
And then BOOM!
Canβt help but feel the noise we have made has helped lead to this exchange.
We are in play for national bookies betting obligation.
This exchange is a bad look for the great game that can easily be fixed up by a NBBO.
Had someone DM me about some good sports betting books. I'll drop one title and pass on to whoever wants to go next with another. We can all circle back and add more. Plenty of good ones out there. Happy to start in no particular order with...
"Conquering Risk" by Elihu Feustel
"Lift the damn ban already, MLB.
Why? Iβll tell you why.
Because the Cubs are going to have a DraftKings sportsbook and betting windows at Wrigley Field, thatβs why."
Whom is baseball kidding? Itβs time to lift the ban and give Pete Rose his due
Just going over some details of the PENN/Barstool investor call from a few days ago... this caught my eye:
50 engineers to develop their app... expected to launch in August 2020.
Fwiw I got a buddy down in the tropics who can roll-out of bed and do this with his eyes closed.
New York...
"The governor... will make the revenue-generating measure a central part of his policy proposals to be laid out in next weekβs State of the State address."
Cuomo to fully embrace mobile sports betting in State of the State address
"Australians have an innate sense of fairness almost built-in, and what the bookies do, what bet365 does is not fair..."Β
In this sports betting company, the winners are called 'problem customers' via
@abcnews
This was a first for me folks... Hard to fit eight years into an hour, but did my best to give a high level glimpse of my time in the business. Hopefully you will understand how the offshore industry has been a lifeline for many of us... one I am very thankful for and proud of.
Gem of a pic here. That was me ~19 yrs old... was helping run a retail book in San Jose, Costa Rica. Man I was pale and thin! ... A testament of working 45 hr weeks and studying chemistry at the time in college...
My handwriting didn't do those boards any justice! Fun gig...
Meanwhile in IA Mattress Mack's Astros bet seems to have wiped out all the positive revenue BetFred and Unibet had accumulated since going live in that particular state...
Found my a.m.βοΈread here...
"This market is rife with all these inefficiencies that have been solved already in every other industry.β
@a_kane47
Philly tech start-up Sporttrade has a new model for sports betting, and it looks a lot like a stock exchange
One thing that sticks out in the
@DraftKings
' investor presentation is that that $1.2B in EBITDA on $3.7B of revenue represents ~32% margin... Am I the only that thinks that is a bit aggressive? Some Euro bookmakers run at about 20%...
$DKNG
"All DraftKings Sportsbook customers with an account balance greater than $0.00 will be able to watch live games from the companyβs mobile platform."
DraftKings acquires Bundesliga live streaming rights in US
Hey
@MarketAxess
... Any chance you want to replicate the inquiry-based platform we get in the bond world to the sports betting world? There might be something there... we should chat.
"While sportsbooks are businesses and should be relatively free to operate as they see fit, a license to take bets is a privilege, not a right, and it comes with conditions. Legalized sports betting was meant to protect consumers β aren't winners consumers, too?"
Raise your hand if you spent time here? πββοΈ
" has operated one of the world's largest sports betting forums since 1995..."
$2.4M deal.
Overdrive Marketing Inc. Acquires Leading U.S. Sports Betting Brand
From the book Gambling Wizards, by Richard Munchkin (
@RWM21
).
From his interview with Stan Tomchin, who recently passed. RIP.
Link to the book can be found here. π
A paper on Billy Walters. Have not read, but raise your hand if you booked Billy (or one of his beards)? I see some of those hands going up...β
Know When to Hold βEm, Know When to Run: The Ballad of Billy Walters
Tennessee Journal of Law and Policy, 2020
Hearing
@DeckPrism
has obtained their first license in the state of Colorado. Big congrats to
@EdMillerPoker
,
@DavidowMatthew
and their entire team. π
This was today's full agenda for reference.
... but I don't think they could fully grasp what it meant to me. And to them, and perhaps some of you, putting on a pair of clean socks is trivial. But I will never forget those times... and this story about socks. 6/6
Great piece by
@DavidPurdum
where he helps immortalize some American sports betting culture: Parlay cards
'I thought I was Rain Man:' The dying art of the parlay card wiseguy
So
@capjack2000
and I had the opportunity today to speak to a class of econ students at
@WakeForest
, specifically ECN395: Prediction Markets. Was fun. Like to think we gave some alternative views on the sports betting industry. π
Thanks to Prof. Koleman Strumpf for having us.
While many are happy to celebrate 3 yrs since PASPA was repealed, it is also a reminder to many bookmakers of all the years they were made out to be the 'bad guys'. Only to see now a bunch of newbs do victory laps. And still get called the 'bad guys'. Smh.
#ProudlyMadeOffshore
π¨π·
Here is link to that
@60Minutes
episode that aired tonight on sports betting... maybe I'm wrong but am inclined to think 'CYA' counter moves will be on the rise as some folks start feeling a bit 'uncomfortable'... guess if the shoe fits you know who are.
On way to Wake Forest to be a guest speaker in a Prediction Markets class... Today's topic will be sports betting. I assure you they will get the unabridged version.
#RealBookmakers
Without the Wire Act, my gut tells me there are unique cultural, structural, and institutional underpinnings here in the US that would make a nationwide sports betting exchange a more feasible proposition... more than what has been tried/accomplished in other parts of the world.
"Many may cheer at its demise, and yet it may reopen again, but it will always be a part of Costa Rica lore."
Certainly a part of my past... ~3 years booking bets and meeting all kinds of folks.
Infamous Hotel Del Rey Closed By Costa Rica Authorities
Legal age for gambling in most states is +21... fantasy sports mostly +18 right? So from 18 to 21 DraftKings and FanDuel are well positioned to 'groom' their fantasy players and then turn them on to sports betting and/or igaming... pretty big head start if you ask me.
So yeah, Illinois broke the $1B handle mark in October... meanwhile FanDuel parlay hold %'s keep crushing the competition (and bettors)... and it is not even close...βοΈ
An exchange in NJ?!
"The partnership will lead to the launch of Sporttrade's proprietary sports betting exchange product in the state of New Jersey"
Sporttrade Partners with Twin River Worldwide Holdings, Inc. to Offer Online Sports Betting in New Jersey
For those curious souls wondering what hold percentage between parlays and non-parlays looks like in Illinois... just finished updating the good ole spreadsheets through November.
Great interview, rich with history, and glimpses of the how deep this business runs when you bet professionally. Thanks for sharing
@haralabob
... will definitely be buying a book if you run with it. Awesome work
@spanky
.
So PA books cleaned up and made ~$29.7M by holding ~35.2% on the Super Bowl... this is probably a hold % and $$$ record going by states with legal sports betting... NV in 2014 held 16.5% and made $19.7M.
Flipside: Imagine if Eagles had won and covered along with OVER! Yikes!
"..As of the ruling,Β the companies will lose the right to limit accounts, bet amounts, or prevent continued gambling...The firms can stillΒ appeal the decision"
Spain: Courts rule against Betfair and Bet365 for suspending accounts of customers on a streak
"The New Jersey native was in a Manhattan subway station on his way to work at Deutsche Bank one morning when he had a life-changing epiphany."
Meet βSpanky,β who left βrat raceβ to become top pro sports bettor
via
@reviewjournal