Dep't of Economics
Addis Abeba University
Professor,Macro&International
Economics
Research Fellow:ETH Academy of Science;SOAS(UK);AERC(Nairobi)& EPRC(Kampala)
I am very pleased, honoured and greateful to the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, for selecting me to teach & conduct research with its Sherdan Vistting Scholarship. Exciting to teach US students in person& meet staff, when COVID permitting.
I am happy, honoured and grateful to the Bahir Dar University & Department of economics for offering me an adjunct Proffesor of Economics position by considering my voluntary contributions to the PhD program of the dept of economics. Thank you. አገራችንን ሰላም ያድርግልን።
This in my area Yeka/Ayat:cutting down of trees that are 20 to 30 yrs old &illegal building of houses is booming. My repeated complain to Kebele official, even in writting, failed. Yet if u just try to paint ur legal house 100 police men will come & ask u for permission/bribe.sad
This is a MUST read thread that every Ethiopian needs to read (I wish it is translated to Amharic). Friends & folks who are asking me 'how is the condition in Ethiopia?' Go no where! Read this. I 100% endorse it. I am living it.Thanks Derese for succently & honesty describing it.
“Happy” “New” Year?
1. After 14 years, I had the privilege of visiting my country, my home town, family, friends and people from all walks of life. I made it a mission to observe listen and reflect with everyday Ethiopians.
ስፈሬ ካልዲስ ተከፍቶ በስህተት ገብቼ በአንድ ቡናበወተት እንደዚህ ተዘርፌያለው፣ I am sure the cost is abt30 እዛ እንዳትደርሱ😂😂.I told you ETH traders don't feel they make a profit unless it is 100%.መንገድ ፌስታል 10ብር የሚሸጥላችሁ በ5 ነው ያወጣው- 100%.
This is a very sad story. The government needs to have an emergency meeting immediately and stop this conflict from escalating across the country. I've witnessed similar pattern around a church near my University. ብስለት፣ስክነትና እዋቂነት ከመቼውም በላይ ያስፈልጋል.
Those of you who live around Ayat-CMC area be careful of two men with Vitz car, park the car by the roadside, spit on you while you walk, apologize, give you soft paper and steal your mobile or anything from your pocket. They just stole my mobile that way an hour ago.
I am happy that I have finally submitted the MS of my non-technical new book. It will hit book shops in UK & also available at Amazon soon. Hope you will enjoy it.
I am excited and proud that my PhD student's
@addisyimer
paper won the 2023 "Best Paper" award for the Journal of International Trade & Economic Development. This is also an immense recognition for our department's PhD program
@aau
.
The gap bn the inefficiency at At Comerecial Bank of Eth and the efficiency at Zemn Bank is mind boggling. It took me 5 minutes to get my lost debit card at Zemen but CBE told me to come after 20 dsys.
@ComBankOfEthio
If I drive or take a taxi from my area(Ayat-CMC) to Stadium, it would have taken me 1:30 to 2 hrs. I took the city train for fun & to check. It took me 45 minutes. Br 7 only. Ride will cost U 400+Br. I wish it pulls many wagons, service improved & come frequently. Need focus.
I am really sadden by the passing away of Prof Mesfin.He was fighting for Ethiopian poor, for democracy and development all his life. ዛሬ አድባራችንና አርአያ ምሁራችንን አጥተናልና የሚያሳዝን ቀን ነው።ለቤተስቦቻችውና ለውዳጆቻቸው መጽናናተን እመኛለሁ
My new book is out and you can get it from shops (as well as አዙሪዎች) in Addis. I have evaluated EPRDF's econ policy/dev't state/ from theoretical Angel. A chapter abt Negadras G.Hiwot Baykdagn is added and contrasted with M.Kalecki's theory. It is Macroeconomics in Amharic.
አእምሮ ካለን ከኬንያ መማርና በራሳችን ማፈር ይጠበቀብናል ( Every leader has weaknesses & strength, let us pick the best part & move on, instead of being stuck on the past & on the bad parts only).
This need to be led & monitor by a board staffed by independent professional experts ( on top of CSA& Mof Planning). Nobody will take the census seriously in this ethnic-politically charged environment if it is done by the govt as usual. So, don't waste public money.
Happy Adwa day to every one: A victory that changed the colour of Africa, according to the best book I read! True!
በጣም ያሳዝናል ይህ መንግስት በየቀኑ እየዘቀጠ በግድ ገልብጡኝ ማለቱ፣ ጭር ሲልም አይወድም፣ምን አለ ሰው በአሉን ቢያከብርበት Really sad!
That is a sick advice that has nothing to do to over 70 million poor Ethiopians that need the FX 4their basic needs.The war has nothing to do with thoudands of employees& entrepreneurs producing roses. If ur serios abt the war study its root causes and suggest to adress them.
We hear a lot about bright kids/youth like Raji on local news; looks ww'll be losing them to prestigious US unis. Govt & gov't institutions needs a special policy how to assist, handle, promote & retain them. They can change the world, let alone a country. Just don't lose them.
Raji Mamade is an extraordinary graduate from ASTU. In all 60+ courses scored A+s in dual degree (Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics).
He secured scholarships in Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA) Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics !
Congrats Raji!
@BMLenjiso
Rule 72 in Finance: for any number to double in x years the growth rate has to be 72/x years - simple arthematic. Thus, Eth GDP must grow by 24%/pa to double in 3 years ie., 72/3=24%. Govt data shows it grew by about 6%/pa. [as $ inflation is negligible, <3.5%]
Heart breaking to see the govt killing its own citizenz by illegally going to their church (EOTC). Stop the killing & don't interfere in religious afair, as your own constitution says
#EOTC
@PMEthiopia
Climate change is for real: it is raining cat & dog in my area in Addis. May was supposed to be the hotest & dry month in Addis - it is snowing right now arround Ayat.
Land grabbing in my area Ayat; I complained to local policemen that are wondering around...and they told me this is urban farming, with sarcastic smile in their face....all the area around is being grabbed by corruption....
የነጋድራስ ገ/ህይወት መንግስትና የህዝብ አስተዳደር መጽሀፍ 100ኛ አመት ዛሬ በ ሳይንስ አካዳሚ በመጽሀፉ ላይ፣ በእንዳለ ጌታ አውያይነት፣ በመወያየት አክብረነዋል። It was great dsy. Coming soon on YouTube, according to Endalegeta.
Intetesting, on Ethiopian new year, I have right now 9,999 followers (It is abt 2rs since I stary twitting, I guess) Thanks for valuing my economic & policy ideas. The next person who will make it 10,000 will get one of my books immediately.kkkk.
Dear all I've done an Amharic translationion of classic Dev't Macroeconomics book by M.Kalecki.Below is my Intro& evaluation of the past&future of the Ethiopian Devel'tal state in the light of this theory. Uploaded for the you & policymakers early acscess.
Interesting to see such Eth Minster's twittes that doesn't allow you to comment on your area of expertice, while he entitled himself to inform us on a subject that is not his area of expertise - very Democratic😂😂
1/n Long thread: The State of the Ethiopian Macroeconomy &Its Prospects. This is based on my macro studies in the last few years, including a new macro model for the figures stated. It is taken from a presentation made to Hibret Bank Senior directors
London, my favourite city, where I thoug at SOAS, here I come,1st time sincec COVID. On my way to China Africa Network workshop of University of Oxford. I will keep you poste about the future of Chinese innovative dev't Finance- my talking point at OU.
We are very excited to announce the programme for the OUCAN 2023 annual conference, taking place on 6 June, entitled "Changing Paradigms or an Era of Retrenchment? The Future of China’s Overseas Finance on the BRI’s 10th Anniversary"
You can sign up here:
Ministry of trasport need to stop the harassment of the good job RIDE (Our vern of Uber) is doing. RIDE lowered the taxy fare by more than half. We used to be ripped of by self ish taxi drivers. Tech is disruptive & gov't need 2 adjust regulation qickly cause RIDE has a sunk cost
የስንብት ቀለማት is a must read book - one of the best books I ever read on Ethiopian literature - our politics, poverty & socio-economic life in a beautiful novel - ጓደኛዬ እንዳለው፣ አዳም ረታ ባህር የሆንክ ሰው! ኑርልን!
I bought this amazing book from old books market ( አሮጌ ተራ) around National Theater. It has developed amazing scientific words from Amharic & Afan-Oromo. Worth checking for science book translators& for fun too.. Published 2007 European Calendar (2000 በኛ)
የ ፕ/ር ባህሩ መጽሀፍ ምርቃትና ላበረከተው ምሁራዊ ሀገራዊ አስተዋጽዎ ይእውቅና ፕሮግራም።Happening now at AAU. ( Prof Bahru's book launch & a program of recognition for his intellectual contribution). Glad to be part of it.
Some one in this platform was asking me to translate Acemoglue & Robinson's book, " why Natons Fail" when I can, just bought it at Kuraz/Mega books, at እስጢፋኖስ here it is:
Read Prof Bahru's book I strongly recommend it. It has wisdom with entertainment. One of the things I learned from the book& loved is his life style principles which he said he was trying to balance all his life: (1) professionalism &excelling in his job/profession 1/2
For those of you intetested, the Addis Abeba Chamber of Commerce (the private sector asson) is organizing a panel discussion about the liberalization of the Eth financial sector.I am member of the panel that includes bank mangers. (Tomorrow at 9am at Hilton Addis)
This gov't is aggressively doing its neoliberal policy under disguise of COVID & const'al debate(ie selling tele & devauation).In the last 2 weeks it devalued Br from 32 to 34.When it makes it Br 35(10%),it'll lead to 24% inflatin in a few months, on top of COVID effect. Stop it.
I don't know him personally, he is a rare breed&one of my favourite technocrats in Eth (Gemechu Dubiso) I always wonder how he manages to expose the corruption of represive poweefull politicians in the parelliment, infront of them. Is GAOffice instn?
Thank U for your service SIR.
.
@MoF_Ethiopia
announced its decision of prohibiting the import of 38 goods and equipment including fuel-efficient domestic automobiles, motorcycles & bicycles, and the use of foreign currency for the purchase of the items due to the global and national economic crisis. 1/2
Excited that our paper about drivers of FDI to Africa is published in the Joural of Knowledge Economy. Hope you will find it intersting. We have used novel country classification scheem that gave us unique results, different from the existing literature.
This is great!Now
@flyethiopian
is officially generating twice the average goods export of the country. Thus saving Eth from devastating BoP deficit each year -እንደ አይን ብሌን መጠበቅ ያለበት a national security issue-easy to do avoid any interference in its operation.
Ethiopian Airlines remains on track to achieve its growth targets for its financial year. The airline anticipates a 30 percent increase in
#passengers
and a notable 20 percent surge in revenue, totaling 7.3 billion U.S. dollars.
@flyethiopian
Keep doing great so that you will deny them any execuse to sell this efficient state owned Ethiopian& African jewl for foreign firms. Its symbolic effect may attract more enemies too, be aware of that.
“No one thought that an airline from a developing African country would come to serve South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina. But this is what happened.”
Group CEO Mr. Tewolde Gebremariam
#Ethiopian
, navigating through a perfect storm!
This is a must read thread for everyone concerned about Ethiopia & Ethiopians - especially the ruling party. Thanks for taking the time to write this
@AlemayehuGK
ሁላችንም ማንበብና ቆም ብለን በስክነት ማሰብ ያለብን ጉዳይ።
That is excellent performance, especially amidest the covid&the war/conflict.It is jumping the $3bln mark for the 1st time where it was stuck for a decade.Does anyone has the disaggregated data I suspect it might be because of gold only&or global price as SS may not respond fast.
amazing guy Prof. Bahiru Kassahun. I read his previous 2 college level Amharic books: 1) Marh for Physics and 2)Single variable differential calculus.When he finishes his series of abt 5 books Engineering could be thought in Amharic
@NBEthiopia
Pivotal in the past years, really?!! Where the broad money supply is growing at 25+% pa since 2000👇 (when it was supposed to grow by 5 or 6%); inflation running at 35+% right now; the parallel market premium is 100+% right now etc
በእናታችሁ አትቀልዱ.
My view on current macroeconomic condion, budget, inflation, tax, real income of citizens with Addis Malda ( in Amharic)፣
ከአዲስ ማለዳጋ ስለኢኮኖሚውና የመንግስት እኮኖሚ ፖሊሲዊች የነበረኝ ውይይት
This is the reward for helping the department. Love it. We are touched by the gusture of all Econ dept staff & regional govt econ staff & the University admin. I am impressed with the respect ppl in this part of the country had for education & መምህር። Back to Addis now.
Today we lost our legend&my personsnal all time best Ali Birra.I fall in love with his music when I moved to Harrar to teach at Haramaya at 21,fresh wt BA from AAU.He is legend there -my 1st favourite being 'Gemechu'.Since then I collected every music he .
Very happy to be part of this & discuss Ethiopian historic theoretical dev't macroeconomics of ነጋድራስ ገብረህይወት & ብላታ ደ'ሬሳ አመንቴ with Endalegeta, one of my favorite authors.
On my way to Entbe to give a speech on prospects of the African macroeconomy to Afrexim bank (the biggest $13bln plus export&import bank of Africa) board and mag't retreat, of course with
@flyethiopian
with pride.
The achilles heel of African development is failure to process primary commodities that they are exporting through manufacturing - industrialization. African growth remain vulnerable for coming 100 yrs as it was in the last 100 yrs, unless this is changing.
1. I recently learned that although the world's largest producer of cashews is Côte d’Ivoire, the world's largest exporter of cashews is Vietnam.
Vietnam is making a fortune. Côte d’Ivoire is not.
This is a story of successful globalization and failed industrialization.
I was telling this people time and time again in local media(both in English & Amharic) way a head of time that devaluation brings only inflation not export growth (while the WB country office saying the opposit) ahead of time. I am glad the new admin at least confesses that.
Exactly. This is too much and everyone needs to protest against uprooting of professionals, before EAL falls, which will damaged the economy/ FX generation hugely.( may be a petition to the PM??).
I have been a huge advocate and ambassador for
@flyethiopian
. I am hearing that the current board Chairman is being replaced with Airforce General Yilma Merdassa. Additionally, plans calls for bringing on board an inexperienced person as CEO. This is to much. We deserve better.
I am glad I have found the first thing that I agree with Ato Zemedeneh(in his econ comments) kkk. This is symbolic. We Ethiopians may disagree on many issues. One thing we ALL should agree upon is our sovereignty, right, freedom & independence to decide on what is ours.
Last night here in D.C, U.S. Treasury issued a statement about GERD.
Key point: “final testing and filling should not take place without an agreement.”
MY VIEW:
#Ethiopia
, 100% owner, financier of GERD, built on a river in Ethiopia, has the sole right to fill GERD at anytime.
Remarkable indeed. It generated double the average value of our exports in the last 5 years [which is $3bln]. The govt/ PM's reward is to chase the board director Ato Girma Wake for leading EAL to achieve this - there is sth seriously wrong with us. Sad!!!
A remarkable achievement:
Ethiopian Airlines (ET) reported $6.1 billion revenue for FY 2023, a 20% increase from 2022.
Transported 13.7 million passengers.
ET is now the world’s 14th largest airline (by revenue).
#Ethiopia
#Nigeria
#Kenya
#SouthAfrica
I belive this data. I was warning for yrs 70% of our people are below poverty line when the gov't says <20% even today.70% of govt &priv sector workers earn below 3k a month. How can you keep a family wt that? It's saddening to see that in ppl's eyes & body everyday in Addis.
Very happy to share our first Working Paper/study about the role of Chinese FDI in Africa, which is based on a comprehensive firm-level survey we did in Ethiopia & Ghana under KIEL Institute for the World Economy, University of KIEL, Germany.
What we left with about May Day now is this one day break only. Think of 70% of Ethiopian workers both in public & private sector whoes average salary is less than Birr 5000/month ( with a rampant inflation of 35+%) when you celberate May day today.
It is difficult for me to understand why PM Abyi/EPRDF think they know better than our world class economist Prof Lemma. World class CEOs Girma Wake, Tewlde G.Mariam about EAL. If they want arguments & numbers we are more than able to give them. Else they owe us an explanation.
@PMEthiopia
Why rush to privatize a profitable, efficient, competently managed, globally reputed jewel (EAL), and do so in a grossly imperfect environment, devoid of price discovery, lack of diversity of ownership, and potential transfer to politically connected individuals or institutions.
I will be making a short presentation at EZEMA's webinar about the connection b/n macroeconomic imbalance and Telecom privatization. You may folliw it live at Facebook today 4am (10 ሰአት). Hope other opposition parties follow EZEMA's lead on this & the gov't listens to reason.
@RasAntonioM
Sad. It looks like governing by creating consequetive crisis (just observe the pattern this year alone). Why do they gave them license & make them invest from their meager resources in the first place? How can authorities be accountable? May be we need mid-term election like US.
The zero sum game Ethiopian politics by Alemayehu Tefra!Amazing summary! When will be the time that our politician (in Welega Tigray, Addis etc) transend to a peaceful power sharing mechanism.The Ethiopian economy can not aford any war drum please..
@AlemayehuGK
He is absolutely right and Kudos to Christian. In addition, based on our today's debt research findings, we've suggested the parliament to call independent (technocrat) MoF experts and researchers/experts to testify about the relevant &implications of such debt bfr approval
@TakeleUma
@AbiyAhmedAli
Congratulateion. Well-done. I am glad to teach you macro theory & policy. Your performance in my course was also impresive, you scoring the top mark, despite being a Minster at the time.
Just got this: Profs Kasahun & W/ Argay's 'Single Variable Differential Calculs' in Amharic from አሮጌ መጽሀፍ ተራ, a version published by University of Gonder. Love it. Hope UG will also publish Prof Kasahun's Integral Calculus in Amharic. Can't get it in Ethiopia.
On the ocassion of ADWA week, this is one of the best book I read on the topic.Wish it is trsnslated into Amharic.A must read book for any African & African decent.Very facinating too.The review by PW below tells it all - ADWA is a vectory that determined the color of Africa.