The financial scandal at Luckin Coffee ($LK), the $12B Chinese startup that IPOd on Nasdaq last yr is crazy.
This wk Luckin ended an internal investigation confirming 2019 revenues were inflated by $300M. An anonymous short seller did A++ work to unveil the fraud in Jan/thread
For early stage SaaS companies looking to raise future growth rounds, here's what growth stage funds typically ask to see for diligence. I am sharing what I send to friends who reach out
1. Quarterly ARR ramp (beg. ARR, new ARR, expansion ARR, churned ARR, ending ARR) /thread
If angel investors can put all their tiny investments in their twitter bios, I'm gonna start doing the same with my PA.
Investor in: atlassian, servicenow, datadog, okta, visa, mastercard & zoom. Beat that
The PMs at TurboTax really have a PhD in UI tricks — Somehow I entered the funnel to file taxes for $0 & and somehow I left 30mins later with a $250 bill
Glad to officially announce our partnership with
@AnthropicAI
! Welcome to Spark.
It is so exciting to partner with a team that has shaped so much of our own internal thinking, through their canonical papers on Scaling Laws or Deep RLHF
Here's a
#NoCode
app I made with
@glideapp
for y'all: Pocket SaaS. Quarterly earnings+SaaS metrics of all 50 public cloud companies. All in your pocket 🌥️💰📱. Will be updating it each quarter.[open in Safari >"Add to Home Screen" > treat it like an app]
16. This is an insane story given the profile of some of the western investors in the company: BlackRock, GIC, Point72.
Luckin's auditor was EY - the same accounting firm that failed to notice the scale of fraud at Wirecard.
$LK was finally delisted from Nasdaq this week.
Missing from big Zoom parties:
— ability to flirt
— ability to flirt back
— “I’ll be right back, just have to say hi to someone”
— quiet corner to go on twitter
Big wins for Zoom parties:
— Irish exits
Growing up in Iran, there were those who had already left for the U.S, those who were trying to every day and those who would stay behind.
And here I am 13 years later. San Francisco is home.
America is wonderful.
Happy 4th 🇺🇸
Best companies/founders find ways to expand their TAM by venturing into adjacent markets.
Inevitably the core product will tap out&maintaining high growth rates at scale requires strategic product expansion beyond an initial wedge. In b2b software many examples standout/thread
When your Persian dad is on twitter, has 3 followers, likes all your tweets, and all of Spark Capital’s tweets AND has East London’s flower market as his pinned tweet 😭😭
Fast, lift, sprint, stretch, and meditate.
Build, sell, write, create, invest, and own.
Read, reflect, love, seek truth, and ignore society.
Make these habits. Say no to everything else.
Avoid debt, jail, addiction, disgrace, shortcuts, and media.
Relax. Victory is assured.
VCs went through a phase of having “designer in-residence” roles, followed by “expert on China” roles. Next up is and/or “open source dev in-residence” or “work futurists” roles 🔮🔮
underrated early startup hire: finance hire.
gets your books in order
foundation for *correctly* measuring/reporting on KPIs
figure out how to spend $ to drive +ve ROI growth (even some sales ops work)
...and I'm not saying this bc I am a growth investor
Excited to share that Spark is leading
@deel
's Series B. Thrilled to partner with
@copernicussw
and
@Bouazizalex
and the entire Deel team on this journey!
Right so tech companies A/B test UI pixels for months but are very comfortable making irreversible decisions about remote-work based on two months of "data" during unbelievably abnormal times
3. The unknown reporter employed 92 full-time & 1,418 part-time staff to run surveillance & record the store traffic of 620 stores over a long period (~15% of total stores). They also tracked 11,260 store video hours, directly obtained from Luckin (investors can do that)
How did you get your first 1000 customers?
2012: Went to a mall and asked ppl to download my app
2015: Posted it on Product Hunt
2020: Raised my seed round from 1000 angels & operators
tbh, smart
This is half of the process. Customer references will paint the other half and bring to life the user love.
I avoided adding benchmarks bc so many awesome folks on twitter share that already. DM me any Qs.
@nabeel
should do a marketplace version of this!
Without either a national lockdown or borders between states, this virus will burn through the entire country.
Local lockdowns and open borders don’t mix.
Welcome to Spark
@superblocks
!
Superblocks is quickly becoming the "AWS of internal apps"—allowing devs to build apps 10x faster. SB will be one of the most defining companies of the next decade as the demand for technical talent continues to heighten...
Deel is on 🔥🔥 🚀🚀
Remote, hybrid, and flexible work is the way of the now and the way of the future. Companies of all sizes and sectors have already embraced this borderless world
So excited for what’s ahead of this *incredible* team.
9. So how did they hide it on the P&L? Where did the "profits" generated from the stores go? To counter the fraud in revenue & in-store profit, Luckin inflated it's sales & marketing expenses by the exact same amount, resulting in the same overall loss on the P&L,the report shows
2. In Jan, many notable short sellers received an email from an anonymous source titled "Coffee's for Closers" siting "a new generation of Chinese Fraud 2.0 has emerged."
The email included an exceptionally detailed report (89 pgs) building a case for fraud at Luckin.
4. They found that Luckin was overstating its number of orders per store per day. In Q4'-19 management indicated ~495 items sold per store per day, but the on the ground research found this number to be closer to 263 -- an 88% inflation
6. Engagement figures (mostly relevant for application companies), number of paying seats, number of engaged users, cadence of engagement (DAU/MAU or WAU/MAU ratios) -- lot's of software products are paid for but not actively used. Will show up eventually in renewals.
6. "Starting from Nov. 23rd the pick-up number
rules will be changed. Currently, the pick-up number increases one by one (e.g. 271,
272, 273...). After upgrade, it will increase randomly (e.g.
271, 273, 274...) It’s normal to see skipped pick-
up numbers"
@CanadaKaz
I understand the desire to add to the discourse but this is a deeply unserious take.
I grew up in Iran too. The people of Iran know *exactly* what is going on; they are not brainwashed by the IRI. Afaik they also never blow themselves up. It is not something we do...
After 2yrs of following
@mimurchison
,
@davehariri
&
@ada_cx
, I'm so excited to lead Ada's Series C &join the board
Ada has grown tremendously, helping companies like Zoom, Facebook& Square deliver differentiated CX, 24/7, across all channels
Go
@Canada
🇨🇦
1. Luckin grew from nothing to 4.5K stores and a $12B valuation over two years, one of the fastest growing Chinese startups - Starbuck's rival in China.
10. Execution: Luckin used a network of 3rd party companies to buy vouchers in bulk and use those vouchers across the stores to inflate revenues.
It also fabricated expense payments to another set of companies under "supplier of raw materials".
at the forefront of all of this is this generation that wants to work, live, and build careers differently.
everyday more and more companies choose to be remote or are born remote — there’s no going back 🚀🚀
What a day today is! We've officially raised our Series D of $425 million at a $5.5 billion valuation led by Coatue. It's been an amazing 🚀 ride, and we can't wait to keep transforming the future of today's world of work together.
Read more here 👉
7. Go-to-market efficiency: I think what really matters here is gross-margin burdened paybacks. Others may look at cac ratio or magic number, ultimately all of these lead to payback in months. S&M $ from the P&L relative to the net new ARR added in each period gives you payback
2. Quarterly customer ramp (beg. logos, new logos, churned logos, ending logos)
3. Cohort data by customer count and $ spent, to get to 12-month gross dollar retention and net dollar retention +
@eriktorenberg
and I are hosting a series on building and scaling B2B software go-to-market motions
First episode is with Channing Ferrer, the VP of Sales Ops and Strategy at
@HubSpot
and our conversation focuses on selling software to SMBs
Next time you see a Goldman analyst give them a BIG hug. Or even better, hire them.
Quotes from the analyst survey:
My body physically hurts all the time & mentally I’m in a really dark place
can’t sleep anymore bc my anxiety levels r through the roof
Today is a major milestone for Ada as we announce our 130M Series C and welcome
@YasminRazavi
to our board 🎉
I'm so proud of our team, grateful to our clients, and now can't build for the long term. So much more to come.
🇨🇦
Very few companies operate in $1T+ markets. Huge milestone for
@marqeta
today, but it is also truly still Day 1.
Congrats to Jason, Vidya, Omri, Tripp and the entire Marqeta team. And thanks for taking us along 🚀🚀
5. To coverup the fake transactions, Luckin had their internal order system jump order numbers at the stores to "make up"orders. If one watched a store for an hour, they would see order numbers jump from 237, to 240, 242, for example. Store employees even got a message saying :
A lil Finance 101 for everyone who tweets about Zoom and it’s worth relative to the market cap of all airlines combined:
Total price of buying a company is TEV, not market cap. And Zoom is NOT worth more than all these airlines combined.
Goodnight ⭐️
8. In Q3'19, Luckin claimed store-level profitability. Stock hit $50 by Feb.
The inflated avg price/item and the item/store/day fit Luckin's case for steady-state profitability. However at 263 orders/store/day and price of RMB 10, Luckin is far from storer-level profitable.
Really impressed with
@sparkcapital
- if you haven’t been watching, big bets in early hardware with Mirror, CTRL labs, Oculus, and Thalmic/North. These are often huge forward bets before a product or business and on trends that big companies start caring about and pay big $$
Most in person meetings can be turned into zoom calls (done)
Most zoom calls can be turned into normal calls (done)
Most normal calls can be turned into text/slack/email (exploring...)
7. The report shows that Luckin inflated the average price per item too. In Q4'19, the short seller gathered 25,843 customer receipts from 10,119 customers in 2,213 stores in 45 cities. They discovered that the avg price was RMB 9.97, 12% lower than what Luckin publicly stated.
qualitatively understanding reasons for churn and mechanisms for expansion (more seats, usage based, new products/cross sell) and how consistent the cohorts look.
4. Quarterly P&L (2-3 years historic) + 2-3 year forecast, including cash balance
5. Top customer list&monthly MRR
superrrr excited to continue to support
@FireblocksHQ
& Michael Shaulov by co-leading this round. Amongst the largest checks we have written at
@sparkcapital
the most secure and comprehensive custody platform in the market and that’s just act 1 💫
persians in tech, persians in web 2.0, persians in vc, persians in crypto, persians in tradfi, persians in new fi, persian lawyers, persian doctors, persian engineers, persians in Iran, persians outside of Iran -- HAPPY NOWRUZ
You can go out and search for product-market-fit or just out execute someone who’s already found it and slightly ahead of you...
One is less risky than the other
10. Other than go-to-market efficiency, just general cash efficiency. How much is the company burning to add $1 of net new ARR. And where is the burn coming from? Is it S&M or R&D and understanding when you'll start to get leverage on R&D spend.
8. Sales funnel: how leads are generated&eventually converted to paying users & annual/multi-yr contracts. For freemium products, what's the conversion from free users to paid+understanding the levers for this conv. For bottoms up products, how do they generate top of funnel?
Claude 2 will now power our chat experience, and is generally available in the US and UK at . We look forward to seeing how people use Claude and our 100K token context feature, where you can upload hundreds of pages in the prompt window.
Jim Simons: complete outsider to finance & trading with a track record of 39% annual returns over three decades😱
“Most of the mathematicians & scientists he hired knew nothing about investing; some were outright suspicious of capitalism.”
9. Go-to-market org: Number of quota carrying reps, quotas, on-target earnings (OTE), time to ramp, historical quota attainment by rep. You want to see consistency across reps and obviously the higher the attainment the better
12. Historical win loss data, reasons for losing (e.g., no budget, internal development, lost to competitor X, Y, Z)
Very unlikely series B companies will have all of this info. That is totally normal. This is an exhaustive list that eventually at later stages most cos will have
11. "the records show numerous purchases by dozens of little-known companies in cities across China. These companies repeatedly bought bundles of vouchers, often in large amounts. Rafts of orders sometimes came in during overnight hours."
Today, the
@Deel
team announced Deel Advance - a new feature that allows Deel users to access their earnings up to 30 days in advance worldwide 🌎💰 Why? (a thread)
first of all it is *Buffett* and it is not a *Buffet*
but also remember, only firms that start with an A are allowed to publish slightly above average content
Excited to announce our investment in
@Capitolis_Inc
.
Capitolis sits at the center of capital markets and helps FIs collaborate, reduce capital utilization, find attractive sources of capital, resulting in higher RoE & liquidity in global markets
11. Pipeline: probability weighted and unweighted pipeline + qualitatively understanding sale cycle, conversion of bookings to ARR to cash + decision making process for the buyer (are they ripping out other solutions? if so, why? how does the buyer think about the ROI?)
wow wow to $DDOG and their *stellar* Q3 -- revenue up 88% yoy, currently at $383M of ARR, up 15% QoQ adding $51M of net new ARR and still sub 12 months paybacks. Brilliant 🙌
shuo has quickly become one of the most effective CROs in our industry
and many of the insights here are novel and even controversial but kudos to her for powering through (e.g., selling in 3-4 continents from year 1 where most companies take years to go "international")
🦄
@deel
went from $1 to $100M+ ARR real quick. Like, 20 months quick 🤯.
Revenue grew from $4-54M in 2021, following 20x growth in 2020. While exciting, this growth brought hard-learned scaling lessons.
Sharing the biggies below as
@Bouazizalex
and I reflect today 🧵
Shuo, the
@Deel
team & I are thrilled to announce our $30M Series B led by
@sparkcapital
and welcome
@YasminRazavi
to our board 🚀 With this financing we'll continue our efforts to become the leading payroll & compliance platform for international teams.
While it might seem like the *absolute* end of the world in public SaaS land recently, reminder that multiples are above their 2/3-yr averages🛎 [I’m showing total enterprise value/fwd revenue for a basket of high growth SaaS cos, not adjusted for anything]
Halfway through earnings season and Pocket SaaS is fully updated. Makes me happy that many of you are using it 🙏
Lot's of announcements over the next 2 wks inc. $WORK, $ZM, $SMAR, $OKTA
[open in Safari >"Add to Home Screen" > treat it like an app]
12.Wsj:"the rafts of purchases&payments formed a loop of transactions that allowed the company to inflate sales& expenses with a relatively small amount of capital that circulated in&out of the company’s accounts." Original source of funds to kickstart the transactions is unclear
*tearing up*...21 years of Tim Sweeney and
@BISradio
... last tue night episode on WNYU. End of an era and "been a long time" <3
P.s my dream was to intern for Tim and
@BISradio
in college
Brands trying to turn N95 donations into viral marketing campaigns for themselves 🤮🤮
Just donate the god damn masks — you’re smart enough to figure out what hospitals need it
super excited for
@bsiegel01
& our friends at A*
in a world where every vc firm is rushing to get bigger & more bloated, they are actively choosing to be more like McKinsey and less like Deloitte (iykyk) 🤗
10/At the stage I invest in, most of my time is spent on getting into the weeds of a company's core market. But every now&then, it's exciting to come up for air& imagine the various paths, products & markets a company can venture into one day. We call it "dreaming the dream" :)
This was indeed a fun chat!
@callmevlad
& the entire
@webflow
crew have really pushed the limits of what is possible to build/ship without code. And they are not stopping here...
Thrilled to officially back
@martin_c_mao
@roskilli
&the
@chronosphereio
team
Chronosphere is amongst the fastest growing startups I’ve seen. A testament to the power of the platform &their unique approach to solving the toughest observability problems🚀
Most “bottoms up” companies will end up having a sales team & much much sooner than you might think
Atlassian is the absolute outlier in only doing account management.
Twilio also reached pretty significant ARR ($50M+) just through their grass roots dev evangelism
So much of diligence relies on customer calls, good reminder to watch out for incentives (e.g., if someone has championed a software roll-out in their org, the chances are they will speak very highly of it bc their job depends on it) & also late adopters will be late adopters
My favorite
@UiPath
reference call when we led their Series A was with the corporate VC arm of a large software giant:
Q: What do you think about RPA?
A: Not interested, we don’t invest in HW robots.
Now they’re buying RPA like every other F500, a lot has changed in 3 years!