Have gone over my process with a fine-tooth comb with the help of great people around me. Huge changes and I am already a different trader than I was just 2 weeks ago as a result of the outcome-driven review process. Changes below
If you risk 1% per trade, you should expect a 30% drawdown!
let me explain 👇👇👇
The table below shows a series of 50 trades. For a 30% win rate, the chances of a 10-loss string is 70% (ie 7 string loss)
@stamatoudism
I started out an engineer. My process is exactly this. That’s why we choose the (1) leader in a (2) leading sector in a (3) bull market at the (4) start of a 3-5 day momentum burst on a (5) low risk entry.
Each one of those things is a layer of Margin Of Safety.
In engineering an important thing to consider is the robustness of any system / design.
With trading it's the same thing, you want to make sure your process builds in failure and is able to handle whatever the market throws at you. Make sure you have an adequate safety factor.
This was an aha moment from
@pwrdbyJUNO
I was pretty frustrated having given gains back after the May 23 run and a little tilty.
Two things:
- dont need orh, vwap or intraday. Simple horizontal lines on daily work…
- …IF stock selection is good
19/03/2022 Underfollowed Accounts
- I'm inspired by the outrageous value add in the Qullamaggie community
- I recommend completing your own process every day then using these to validate & add anything you missed
- Relying solely on these without your own process is a trap
17/04/2022 Swing School Screenshots
- Someone asked for the raw files
- You can download 129 swing school snaps here
- same 129 + 80 others here
- Then use
Backtesting Summary:
- Trimming v important 2-5xADR as a guide for an extended move
- 10MA & 5day burst are still the best (vs hour MAs)
- Selling proportions don't matter that much (1/3 vs 1/2 etc)
- For when breakouts are working. That part is still discretionary
- e.g below
Just started Nicholas Darvas’ second book “You can still make it in the market”
If you told me someone wrote this about the last 2-3 years, I wouldn’t think twice
10/10/2022 Monday: Soros
- Within quoted tweet, there’s a great summary of Soros trading (Jerry Parker was a Richard Dennis Turtle Trader btw)
- Ppl think Soros being mysterious & abstract but it’s simple to me
- Soros has a 30% win rate
- Sound familiar? Qullamaggie?
Soros on Soros:
“I recognize that I may be wrong. This makes me insecure. My sense of insecurity keeps me alert, always ready to correct my errors.”
“If I had to sum up my practical skills I would use one word, survival.” Thank you,
@gfc4
Guys use this. Thank me later
- takes away all noise on twitter page
- no adds, no-nonsense news, no likes from followees
- simplifies interface
- seriously, thank me later!
3/2/2023 Friday : Back to basics
- I ended up flat on Jan. Had potential but gave lots back huge disappointment.
- Made every mistake in to rookie trader book.
- Sharing my torment so we can grow together.
- Time to go Back to basics…👇👇👇
9/09/2022 Friday
- Studying Zanger's Newsletters now. Similar times to now (2000 132wk, 2007 72 wk, we are 41wks in)
- He lost 75% after making 42mill in 23mths
- " I'm heading to Maui and I'll stay there until the next bull market arrives"
Guys….trading is really fucking hard. It’s a miracle we’re alls still here. Just be happy for others that aren’t blowing up and winning a little come on
I started trading in early 2021
Having been through a bear market and sucked for a few years, now everything has come together for a seeming 3 year overnight success story.
Still, I’m hesitant to celebrate the win since the next bout of underperformance is around the corner
26/09/2022 Monday: Darvas
- Man this was a good book
- 3k to 2mill in 2.5 years
- Super concentrated, often had 1 stock in his port + margin
- Few trades made up the majority of performance
If you have no market situational awareness, poor execution, poor risk management then you're being bailed-out by the market right now. Don't think you're the best trader alive.
23/08/2022: Tuesday
- Don't plan to succeed, plan to NOT FAIL
- There's only a handful of ways to fail
- If you can build your process to exclude as many as possible, then energy is focused on the highest ROI things & profitability comes quicker
19/05/2022 Thursday: Situational Awareness
- Kris nailed shorting TSLA 4/26, then covered 5/12 and went balls deep on mean reversion long, now looking for mean reversion short
- Good to go back & study how he navigated in the past
- Directory of links here
31/05/2022 Monday: How Markets Behave
- Ppl always say that the one thing that helps the most is understanding how the market behaves
- Then they say study the markets for 1000 hours 🚫
- What are you actually looking for?
👇👇👇
26/05/2023 : Friday - New SA tool
Gain Situational Awareness by addressing 3 questions:
1. Are there a lot of breakouts
2. Are breakouts working
3. Are breakouts following through
4. How many are making 15+% moves- Updated daily
👇👇👇
30/10/2021 Saturday
- I have been trading Cryptos using Qullamaggies strategies
- Started with 7.8K May 2021 now 22.8k in October 2021
- Here's is what I've learned
25/08/2022 Thursday
- I keep seeing this mental image...
- You literally just don't have to trade when things aren't perfectly aligned
- Not every move "belongs" to you. You never "missed" a move
- It's ok to let breakouts pass, one after the other
- It could be the difference 👇
FREE post-trade review for IBKR users!
If you follow the instructions, it will auto-download your trades automatically for free!
thank you
@CagesideGames
for building it. Tip him if you find it useful
14/04/2022 Peer Review
- I'm using herd mentality to keep my self inline
- Have asked well-studied people to review my trades. The harsher the feedback the better
- Now when I think about taking a bad trade, I think about the berating I'm going to get next review
20/07/2022 Wednesday
- Guys U cant know where the mrkt will go
- If QQQ breaking out & there r many setups in hot sectors & they R working,
- Then u buy leaders put your balls in line of fire & it might work, might not.
- That is called EDGE.
- EDGE is a chance, not a certainty
Great presentation here on follow through days with PNL simulator to illustrate
What about passing on all FTD and taking subsequent breakouts once confirmed to avoid having to dig out of a 20% hole?
Theoretically, equity curve would be ahead even after missing first few BOs
11/09/2022 Sunday
- A lot to digest but if you're very cerebral this might be interesting to you
- Bull flags explained with some nuance
- Themes, Sectors & Situational Awareness
3/07/2022 Sunday: Prep
- Things looking interesting again
- 3 areas of interest for me rn
- 1. China, 2. Biotech, 3. Solar, 4. Oil/Gas
- Different timeframes, different nuances
Keen to hear your opinions too?
20/04/2022 Wednesday: Trading problems
- One problem I'm having is I buy laggards & get stopped next 1/2 days. Then get frustrated, wait for breakouts (miss the leaders) then buy the laggards again
- Examples are GFI, OXY (day 4 of BRENT/WTI mom burst), KOS yesterday, HCC
20/05/2022 Friday: Edge
- I've been asking myself "is there an edge" a lot recently
- For my setups, I only trade the moments in 0.5% of stocks that arent random (pink circles)
- More importantly, knowing when there is no edge (majority of the time)
When I first started trading I had a day job and studied and traded at midnight. I also took up a startup gig which was more flexible but still time consuming and stressful
I was constantly sleep deprived and in a terrible mood. I would then be terribly abrasive
Another huge epiphany was understanding the principle agent issue that happens internally with a trader. Actionable outcome-driven plans come from this concept
20/05/2022 Friday: mistakes/lesson
- This is a no edge market
- We are just "range bound" chopping with no setups
- I have been sitting watching intraday charts causing me to take random trades
- Need to turn off charts as soon as im done with my process loop
- Trading isnt "fun"
Im rewatching the champ
@OliverKell_
recap his 2020 with
@RichardMoglen
.
I kinda see a few similarities to now. Back of the envelope type of analysis 👇👇👇
FYI, audio quality isn't required for big returns apparently 😂
2/08/2022 - Tuesday: Since inception Review
- Quick review of performance since big process review in Aug 2021
- Obsessive focus on one concept:
- Risk/Reward. i.e tiny % to LOD, which allows me to get HUGE size
- That in turn sets the account up for an asymmetric outcome
25/11/2021 Thursday
- Some thanksgiving comedy
- Quick sample of trades from the review of recent bull market
- 141 trades, 35% win rate, 2.7x Win/loss. Very average
- Extremely proud but also HUGE room for improvement
29/03/2022 Progress to date (pullback day)
- For those that feel bad, here's where my mind is at
- I'm basically breakeven since I got back in the market
- The majority of breakouts I bought didn't make big enough moves to offset my losses
- 150% allocated to now 60%
9/04/2022 Saturday: Risk Nuance
- Risk is not all the same!!
1. do you wait to see volume and strength in confirmation (3-4% stop); or,
2. do you take something that has a tiny stop but could be a big move without confirmation (0.7% stop)
Levels of trading proficiency:
1. Identify setup patterns
2. Identify sectors and themes
3. Identify market environment aka situational awareness
4. Intuition. When youre subconsciously in sync with 3 previous components. Your fomo and impulses to chase are “right”
27/09/2022 Tuesday: Livermore's Tables
- Livermore didn't use charts, he used price tables (see img)
- These are shown in book "How to trade in stocks"
- Long list of confusing rules, published in this book shortly before he passed
22/04/2022 Friday: Why you(i) feel like shit
- Loss Aversion (LA) = "The response to losses is stronger than the response to corresponding gains"
- Expected Value (EV) formula + some back of the envelope math shows why traders give up with high R/R but low win rate strategies
4/04/2022 Monday
- After a weekend of review, I'm more focused & ready to go
- Shorter watchlist with tighter criteria
- Focuses: 1. No half baked setups 2. No bottom bounces 3. Better executions
- Let's get it
14/10/2022 Friday: Recent learnings
- I've been studying a lot of alternative trading strategies like short, daytrading etc
- It has largely been a waste of time, but I have defined the edges of my Bull Flag strategy
- Some findings recently that you may like
19/04/2022 Tuesday: Brian Lee interview
- very timely for me since I’m taking losses to heart
- key takeaways
1. Ruthless focus on system/process
2. Extreme faith in low win rate high R/R system
3. Aggressively takes all setups in his system
31/08/2022 Wednesday: Pre August 2021
- Full transparency, this is what I did to my account pre August 2021
- March 2021 to August 2021
- This represents a 26% loss
- After the Aug review, I started a new account with 3x the capital
I've started a discord channel for Qullamaggie style traders specifically on the ASX.
I personally don't trade that market but can see how it would be nice to have a community of ASX specific Qullamaggie specific traders
DM me if you are ASX specific/Qullamaggie specific
26/08/2022 Friday - Toby Crabel ORB
- This is exactly the recent change I made
- Wanna see strength straight away and to protect my entry asap
- Observe if this type of entry has been working, and use as a gauge for market strength
💯💯
24/03/2022 Thursday
- An important skill for trading is being able to build a 2Dimential mind map by processing many 1D datapoints
- Because I trade at ~12am, my cognitive function is too low to perform at the required rate
- I need to improvise ⬇️⬇️⬇️
17/03/2023 Friday: Notes & Gameplan
- I find it super easy to spot leaders in weakness like this
- Yesterday BOs: NVDA DUOL COIN SMH TQQQ AAPL (META AMD FNGU 3 days ago, BULZ 2 days ago)
- Other recent leaders that resisted pullback: IOT FSLR SE ARDX SPOT to name a few
- I also ask to review trades from people I respect
- Overall, I've verified my own finding in my review, but also found new areas for improvement
- This is probably one of the most direct things you can do to improve your trading. You're just a fake screen name anyways who cares
26/03/2022 Saturday: Situational Awareness Study
- The highest value add study for learning situational awareness for KK style traders is going through the daily summaries, previously by
@Dannyl_ee
now
@StatBear
-
-
29/05/2023: A picture worth 1000 words
- Theres at least 2 really important takeaways right now
- Yellow is % impact on account (25% position, 1% risk)
- 1. Sell into strength
- 2. Don't pass just because it's high stop% to LOD
- Can you see why?
Game plan:
- Do less. Say “that’s not for me” more. Ignorance is bliss. Focus on ME not what others are doing.
- Clean back watchlists, refine strong watchlists
- Complete my process flow before checking social media
24/03/2022 Execution App (TWS)
@AndersKlepaker
has made a super useful app for executions
- Auto calculates shares to buy based on position size based on LOD stop/accountsize and submits the order instantaneously with one click of a button
100% agree. Price cycle is a game changer!
If you come from a Qullamaggie background like me, this helps contextualize each of the setups in a bigger picture
Here's 1 powerful nuance I learned 👇👇👇
2/04/2022 Saturday
- Focus on linearity & not trading choppy/mean-reverting stocks has been lost on me these past few weeks
- Cleaning backwatchlists now & seeing influx of big moves off shit setups, lulling traders into buying choppy stocks
- Lots of review to come
29/03/2022: Setup for tomorrow
- I have seen Kris trade this a few times
- Breakdown of flag, bounce of MA
- Then reclaim range and simultaneous breakout of range
- Stop at Red to Green or some other tighter stop
- Pre-requisite is significant RS to other stocks selling down
7/07/2022 Thursday: Trade review FUTU
- After a series of wins, remember its not you, its your process + law of large numbers. Losses are around the corner
- Ur not 'right', its b/c u followed ur process
- This way, you also protect your ego when the process generates losses.
@Qullamaggie
I got inspired by you giving away great information for free for the benefit of the trading community. So I created where you can analyze your trades for free. Currenly only supports IBKR, but that will be fixed. I would love a RT if you can?
22/09/2022 Thursday: Where I'm at
- I'm realllllly confused lol so on the sidelines 🧐
- Stocks will break up/down/sideways & I'm also prettttty sure I'll feel stupid 😟
- Important more than the above, my PNL will look like none of this ever happened 🥳😁
3/12/2022: Self-reminders ‼️‼️
- Need to get in sync with the market after not placing trades for a while
-Thread of 'flash cards' to prime myself for upcoming opportunities
- Key objective: Visualisation so I don't have to re-make the mistakes to learn from them!
Let's go!
- If Ur pissed u got stopped, its b/c you havn't accepted this yet
- U think edge is PREDICTING what happens
- Then u think u are wrong or stupid when u get stopped
- U can only assess the decision up to the buy point
- Whatever happens after that is just the odds playing out
29/05/2023: Backwatchlister update
- Easy money market.
- Just dont look outside of Ai theme (semis, quant comp etc) 🤣
- Everything else is bad
- If you missed this wave. be patient. Dont chase
31/05/23 - Situational Awareness ⚠️⚠️⚠️
- Character change ytd
- 4/27 breakouts ytd failed to hold 3min ORH entry with a net E/V of -5.5% on the day!
- E/V has fallen off a cliff for new breakouts (see chats)
- Size down👇👇👇👇👇
17/08/2022 - Wednesday: 1st-Yr Trading Review
- Formally requesting more capital from myself in an attempt to treat my trading like a business
- As always, trying to boil it down to 1 or 2 key focuses going forward
New Game idea: Situational Awareness training + identifying leaders/sectors
After seeing how awesome
@TradingArchive
’s game works, I though I’d see if anyone would be keen to build this.
Let me know if you’re keen 😃
Most simple version would be like this 👇👇👇
What are you most proud of from your trading in July?
Someone asked me and I think its a great question. Take a break from being so hard on yourself and rewire your brain for positivity.
19/04/2022:
@StatBear
Summaries
- Reviewed YTD summaries to see what K saw in commods
- CEIX and BTU started as EPs! keen for this upcoming round
- You can be wrong a lot and still do alright
- Just trade strength/setups
-
@StatBear
notes are hilarious
9/01/2022
- Prob going to be a bit quieter until markets get interesting
- Last thing I want to do is watch this type of market too closely & talk myself into buying shit setups
- Minimising exposure to markets is my strategy to prevent that
- Stay safe people!
9/10/2022 Sunday - Pattern Recognition Journey
Stage 1
- Trader discovers market but doesn’t understand market structure
- “Stocks are good because the story sounds good or someone else thinks so”
- Hasn’t decided between fundamental investing or technical trading or other
Hi guys! I’m back!
Wondering how you’ve been and how your trading journey has been while I was away
Thinking about being more active and wondering what you guys wanna see too
Here's where Im at...
3 years this month. Was a boom/bust trader. First 3 years: -15ish%, 10%, 10%.
I could make about 20% in a bull run, but I would give it back & more, then 🔁
Most of the issues (stock identification & execution) and can now make >20% in a run but...
- Very much a reminder for myself.
- I think I have accepted this fact about EDGE, but I still get upset for executing my process and getting stopped out
If you have no market situational awareness, poor execution, poor risk management then you're being bailed-out by the market right now. Don't think you're the best trader alive.
29/04/2022 Friday
- Focusing on these type of charts
- Oil strong with WTI and BRENT in big flags. AR PTEN PBF leading
- Steel ZEUS STLD NUE
- Fertilizers IPI MOS CF
- Coal strong but no setups
- Focus is on faster stocks that are more linear
26/05/2022 Thursday
- Great strength O&G
- AR & EQT breakout day 1. Most things fail by day 3, not now
- Back WL is very healthy in terms of breakout numbers and follow through
- We're in a good place as long as QQQ doesn't gap down & correlation goes to 1 again
- 100% cash 🥲
Micro Cycles
Even in a bull market, you get mini cycles and waves.
- Leaders set up momentum bursts and consolidate as laggards break out
- Leaders make shallow pullbacks to KMAs while laggards get stopped out
This is the first time we have see a 4 month run in 3 years
6/04/2022 Wednesday
- ngl yesterday hurt 🥲 took a 5R hit
- Back to long-form for a while
- No actionable setups
- I am keeping an eye on some potential mean reversion things though
The chrome extension to view candlestick charts when hovering over a ticker on Twitter like $TSLA is now LIVE. Shoutout to
@thebadtrader
@rahuldmehta7
for the idea.
This is a tricky market some would describe as a "stock pickers" market.
What does that really mean?
- If you're in the right stocks, they make 20+% moves over 5+ days
- if you're in the wrong stock, you get stopped heaps
I call it a high-dispersion low EV environment
17/07/2022 Sunday
- Problem: Spending inconsistent (mostly too much) time looking at/thinking about the market resulting in overtrading/burnout
- Solution: Restrict time for thinking/scanning to the actioning of checklist below. Track start/end times
29/09/2022 Thursday: 3 Phase Mindsets
- There’s a mindset change that happens during your:
1. pattern recognition deep dive phase as a beginner VS
2. execution phase mastering 1 setup VS
3. development phase adding new setups
Jack Kellogg
- $10.5 mill 👀
- Basically the same setups
- Seems to be focusing on a setup called OTswizzle by Dominic Mastromatteo
- Roommates with other traders now has an office with other traders. Would love to have that community
The market makes perhaps 2 big moves a year.
Each lasts maybe 6–12 weeks.
The rest of the time, it consolidates the gains.
So, Zanger wants to be in just 4 powerhouse stocks, let them run, then take profits and go to cash while the market resets.
Rinse, repeat.
22/03/2022 Tuesday
- A few interesting names but nothing that really jumps out at me
- Went full retard yesterday and am now fully allocated
- Growth needs to consolidate here after 4 days of good breadth
- Keeping track of strongest commodities since they all broke out ytd
3/06/2022 Friday
- Have been on holiday. Still doing daily process but have had better things to do at open
- Raises the bar for participating in the market & has been a net positive
- Forces you to have an actionable plan/edge
- Saves you from taking impulse trades