In a nation like
#Thailand
where monarchy and military reign supreme, voting for democratic opposition is not an EXERCISE OF popular sovereignty: it’s a DEMAND FOR popular sovereignty. That makes it a revolutionary act. My latest
@JoDemocracy
:
*WHY DO DEMOCRACIES DEVELOP AND DECLINE?* Our new issue of Democracy & Autocracy, featuring memos on the past, present, and future of the
@vdeminstitute
project, plus an exchange between
@ElvinOngPolSci
and
@M_higashijima
on their
@umichWCED
series books!
I'm delighted to be named the John Orin Murfin Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan. I'm so grateful to leadership
@umichLSA
for their trust and support, and I look forward to living up to every expectation entailed in this wonderful honor. Go Blue!
@umich
This isn't a normal military regime in
#Myanmar
. It strangles its society like an alien, occupying force. British rulers surrendered at the negotiating table under maximum nationalist pressure, led by Aung San, in 1947. I can't conjure any better parallel path forward than that.
“The man who has spent the past three decades doing more than anyone to deny Indonesians the right to elect their leaders has now been elected
#Indonesia
's leader.” My latest on the endangered state of Indonesian democracy
@JoDemocracy
.
“THE ORIGINS OF MILITARY SUPREMACY IN DICTATORSHIPS”
“The core lesson is simple: Unless an autocratic regime created the military, it will struggle to control the military.”
New
@JoDemocracy
article with
@LucanWay
,
@adam_e_casey
and Jean Lachapelle!
There are times for analysis, seeing both sides, and taking history seriously. And then there are moments to just feel and show solidarity with the innocent victims of tyrannical, imperial aggression, freshly reminded: there but for the grace of God go I.
#Ukraine
#украйна 🇺🇦
Postdoc 🚨! We'll be selecting *3* new postdocs for our *2-year* non-teaching interdisciplinary fellowship
@umichWCED
. Please encourage anyone with a 2021, 2022, or 2023 PhD who has interests in democracy and authoritarianism (broadly understood) to apply!
Yesterday a 97-year-old Arizona man told me "I'm terrified how close we're getting to
#authoritarianism
in this country." Sounds like something I might say! But his example? Gavin Newsom. Which has inspired some new thoughts on
#democracy
and its multiple opposites. A 🧵 1/18
In my new
@ForeignAffairs
article "After Democracy," I argue that democratic erosion can lead to either ELECTORAL AUTHORITARIANISM or ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACY, in the USA as in SE Asia. Today's midterms will help decide which undemocratic threat looms larger
NEW ISSUE OF "DEMOCRACY AND AUTOCRACY"! On "The Troubling State of India's Democracy," soon to be an edited volume
@UofMPress
in our Emerging Democracies series. Featuring
@LarryDiamond
@dmistree
@MayaJTudor
and many many more!
*24 postdocs on
#democracy
and
#development
!* 6 each in Bogota, Budapest, Cape Town, & Colombo. I'll be a resident senior adviser for part of the '24-25 fellowship period in S Africa and Sri Lanka. Please apply and/or encourage others to apply! Details ⬇️
Just canceled my Marriott hotel reservation for
@APSAtweets
annual meeting (barely in time to avoid fees), and working with fellow panelists to move sessions to alternative sites. May solidarity carry the day, both among scholars and between scholars and workers.
My new piece
@JoDemocracy
on
#Indonesia
. Main takeaways:
"Indonesia's democracy is among the world's most important both to understand and to defend."
"It would be a stretch to call Indonesian democracy a model; but it is still an example."
Either 1) Putin has kompromat on Trump that makes it impossible for him to confront Russia; 2) Trump is so insecure about his victory that he can't admit Russia's role; 3) Trump genuinely admires and wants to emulate Putin's authoritarian model; or 4) all of the above. I vote 4).
Why did religious tolerance just win in
#Indonesia
but lose in
#India
?
@MayaJTudor
and I argue it depends on how nationalism and religion have historically combined, and on whether pluralist parties employ or squander their nation's most inclusive legacies
10+ years after a mixed-method version of this argument (war makes the regime) got an impossible R&R at APSR, the quant version comes out OnlineFirst in
@BJPolS
and qual version comes out in print in
@govandopp
in the same week. /
3 or the 4 largest democracies (
#India
, USA,
#Brazil
) have now elected the right-wing populist strongman who democrats long feared. But happily,
#Indonesia
, the 3rd-largest democracy, is looking poised to reject its version of Bolsonaro, Modi and Trump in 2019. As it did in 2014.
Political scientists aren't interested in studying comparative democracy in theoretical perspective outside of Europe? Here's just one of my recent pieces on
#Indonesia
that suggests otherwise. Comparativist friends, please feel free to pile on....
Sometimes I think that pol scientists are worse than even the economists. For 40y, they have been studying comparative democracy & voting patterns in 20+ countries disputing minutest differences between Norway and Sweden. But they do not seem interested in using the same...
Perfect first book of the semester for my
@umichpolisci
grad seminar on Qualitative Methods, for our week on case-study research, by the incredible
@carsonaust
!
This whole power-sharing process in
#Myanmar
is the military's baby, and they've been rearing it for 30 years. If this culminates in a full hard coup they're frittering away 3 decades of hard political work to get the country on reasonably stable and functional political footing.
If you can't feel as much achievement in the few tasks you can finish in a day as anxiety you feel about the many tasks you can't, this career will eat you alive from the inside out.
Honored with
@JosephWongUT
to make
@DemParadox
's top 5 must-read books on democratization from 2022, alongside Mainwaring, Masoud, Gamboa, Beissinger, Levitsky, and
@LucanWay
Ignoring COVID precautions is morally equivalent to driving drunk. When drunk drivers are injured and hospitalized, of course we feel bad for them and their loved ones. But our main concern is their victims. And we’re understandably a bit relieved they’re off the road for awhile.
"We can't stop bad people from doing bad things," says
@KenPaxtonTX
on
@FoxNews
. "We can potentially arm and prepare and train teachers and other administrators to respond quickly. That, in my opinion, is the best answer."
#UvaldeSchoolShooting
#Texas
Thanks to endless scientific polling, we know that millions more voters want Biden to be president than Trump. What we don't know yet is whether our broken electoral system, packed judiciary, and heavily-armed society will let this clear will of a democratic majority be expressed
1) Especially on Thanksgiving, this devastating thread reminds me how insanely thankful & lucky I am to have an academic job that will provide economic security to my family for a lifetime. And how insanely worried I am that my current advisees will never enjoy the same security.
Having gone through these applications, I can (sadly) confirm what I already suspected. There were ~200 that should have been highly competitive for interviews. There were probably a couple dozen who'd never held TT appointments and already would meet the bar for tenure.
Global democratic backsliding is afflicting rights protections more than electoral quality.
@izading
and I explore this "democratic decoupling" with
@vdeminstitute
data and Asian case-studies in this new Democratization article.
Having worked in one poli sci department where theoretical novelty > empirical testing (UChicago) and another where empirical testing > theoretical novelty (U of Michigan), I don’t think either side of this debate has anywhere close to all the angels on its side.
This seems exactly backwards. In graduate training and publication incentives, the discipline has emphasized methodology rather than theory. If anything, there's too much sophisticated modeling resting on very thin theory.
Another fantastic read for my grad Qualitative Methods seminar
@umichpolisci
, this time for our week on archival research. Amazing work
@JosephTorigian
!
I think writing an academic book is more like 100% inspiration, 100% research, 100% craft, and 100% endurance. If you lose any of the elements at any time in the entire process the whole thing grinds to a halt or comes off the rails.
Amazing 🧵again by
@GerardoMunck
! But to say the non-Euro state-building literature has offered "piecemeal answers" until now is unfair. Many of us have been building general theory, and Mazzuca's new book is a massive contribution to a long, ongoing, non-Eurocentric conversation
Tilly, as his mentor Moore, was not a modernization theorist. But, avoiding facile generalizations, his work on the state left us with an open question. If the path followed by Europe is not the path other regions follow, how do we explain the state in the Global South? Thread
The
@APSAtweets
comparative democratization newsletter has a new name, “Democracy and Autocracy,” and a new home,
@umichWCED
. Thrilled to be editing it with
@robmickey
and with guest editors for each issue like
@MatthewCebul
in our inaugural issue, “Is Democracy Promotion Dead?”
#Russia
vs
#Ukraine
? Hell no. This is Putin vs peace. This is autocratic aggression against democratic enemies both within and without. Today more than ever, the world must stand with Russia’s dissidents as we
#StandWithUkraine
.
Call them what you will (coups, rebellions etc.), but armed actors often seize power because they’re disgruntled over how the war they’re fighting on the periphery is being mismanaged. More on that (with
@ferdinandeibl
and
@shertog1
in
@BJPolS
) here:
Illiberal democracy is on the ballot in
#Turkey
. Electoral authoritarianism is on the ballot in
#Thailand
. Big results for opposition could finally start sounding the death knell for both.
@PrincetonUPress
@JosephWongUT
Most simply put, democracy hasn’t arisen in the region we call “developmental Asia” because weak dictatorships COLLAPSED, but because strong dictatorships CONCEDED. 3/21
Where does America fit in a center on emerging democracies? Is America itself a submerging democracy? Here
@umichWCED
we’ve been asking these questions a lot lately, and we have a lot to share. Please permit me a 🧵! (1/N)
In the study of national political systems, political scientists are divided into two separate but equally important groups:
Comparativists, who study every system on Earth;
And Americanists, who study... only America.
These are.... equally important HOW?
CLUNK CLUNK
I’m more the opposite. I need to understand what new thing the author is trying to *say* before I can appreciate what new thing they’re trying to *do* and *show*
The longer people are in academia, the more they realize that when reading papers it's best to ignore Intro, Discussion etc. and just look at Methods and Results
Please, just this once, nobody say: "this isn't normal." This is perfectly normal. Dictatorship is normal. Personalism is normal. Sultanism is normal. Cults of personality are normal. America has come down with a nasty case of normal.
😳 The GOP just announced that there is no 2020 platform this year other than to reassert “the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration.”
FROM DEVELOPMENT TO DEMOCRACY listed by
@freedomhouse
as 1 of 5 new "books that help explain the factors leading to the decline in democratic freedom worldwide as well as examples of and roadmaps for reversing those declines"
@JosephWongUT
@PrincetonUPress
I highly recommend the Dictator's Playbook documentary series
@PBS
. Episodes on
#NorthKorea
,
#Uganda
,
#Spain
,
#Panama
,
#Italy
, &
#Iraq
. Friends can catch me a few times in the Franco episode and once in the Mussolini one... and my voice in the credits! :)
The tiny, intimate Jakarta coffee shop where I wrote “
#Indonesia
’s Accountability Trap” in June-July 2004 is now a glorious 2-story colossus, thriving despite the giant Starbucks across the street. The sleepy nearby syariah hotel where I lived seems to have been demolished though
Today my sabbatical ends and my directorship at the Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies (WCED) begins. It felt appropriate to spend the day marching with
#HongKong
's dogged annual July 1 protesters for expanded rights and autonomy from Beijing's direct control.
@umichWCED
Another way to put this critical point: a hiring committee is probably more likely to judge your file by your weakest publication, not your strongest. So multiple articles are great if you can manage it. But much better to put heart and soul into just 1 or 2 than spread too thin.
It's so very inspiring to see
#Ukraine
's fierce resistance. But it's a bit disheartening and worrisome that this resistance can only really be expressed nowadays in a nationalist idiom, in an age when militant, exclusivist, ethnicized nationalisms are doing so much global damage.
This is insane. What’s left of political science research in the mainstream public sphere without
@monkeycageblog
? Democracy indeed dies in darkness,
@washingtonpost
, and nothing is darker than ignorance.
Still in shock that
@washingtonpost
cancelled
@monkeycageblog
, home of public facing poli sci research for 9 yrs. I guess fact based work doesn’t sell 🤷🏽♀️🤦🏽♀️ Many thanks to vision of John Sides, the support to new voices from
@ejgraff
& many amazing eds
As I argued in 2015: "Mahathir may believe that he can end the crisis by bringing Najib down. But history should judge Mahathir himself as the author of a long national decline that has culminated in this latest crisis."
Perhimpunan Survei Opini Publik Indonesia
@persepi_org
bekerja sama dengan kami akan mengadakan Diskusi Terbatas bersama Prof. Dan Slater - The Authoritarian Turn in Southeast Asia (Arus Balik Otoritarianisme di Asia Tenggara) pada hari Jumat, 5 Agustus 2022.
@BurhanMuhtadi
This thoughtful thread by
@timurkuran
gets us much, but not all, of the way there. I find it naïve in 2 respects: how sharply it separates speech from 1) disruption and 2) violence (1/6)
University students have every right to protest what they find undesirable, harmful, or unjust. Whether you agree is immaterial. If you don’t like their message, write a counter-message or organize a counter-protest. What’s not allowed is violence in any form or incitement to
A drawback of the "stay in power" assumption is it overpredicts authoritarian caution and power-sharing. Autocrats who pick fights with elites, repress groups who aren't threats, and pursue ambitious policies (even launching wars) are hard to square with a "stay in power" logic.
I disagree because this is a very core part of how political scientists think about political behavior. Fundamentally, parties/individual politicians want to stay in office and their behavior will be motivated by that goal. But that's just the beginning and of course there's
New article in Social Science History with Hillel Soifer: "The Indigenous Inheritance: Critical Antecedents and State Building in Latin America and Southeast Asia." Like political development itself, it's been a long time coming....
I was warned during my first visit to Yale that she would be hostile. Instead, she asked to swap papers. Years later she came to my workshop at Yale and went out of her way afterwards to encourage my research direction.
Don't listen to what people tell you about other people.
“I support withdrawal unless it goes badly” isn’t a tenable position. There was never reason to believe withdrawal could go smoothly. An independent commission will have to determine what could have been done better. But if you (like me) supported withdrawal, you supported this.
Today is my last day as the Weiser Professor of Emerging Democracies
@iiumich
, but I will be continuing my work as Director of
@umichWCED
without any interruption or disruption. You can read my full statement on our center's funding transition here:
Biden touts his Buy American plans: "Every single thing, from the deck of an aircraft carrier to the railing of a new building, is going to be built by an American company, American workers, American supply chain, so that we invest American tax dollars in American workers."
Democratic compromise is healthy, but compromised democracies are unhealthy. I argue that
#Malaysia
has too little healthy compromise and too much unhealthy compromise in my latest
@east_asia_forum
.
The study of political development should first and foremost be the study of threat perceptions.
@pstanpolitics
shows us just how historical, how subjective, how ideological, and how heterogeneous those all-important threat perceptions can be.
Scholars can only identify political problems, not solve them. Research can't supply Afghanistan with the necessary coalition for state-building, or imbue America with the political will and expertise to build institutions from afar. Politicians failed, not political scientists.
Can’t help but wonder about the implications of the Afghan debacle for the social science of counterinsurgency: dozens of generously funded studies in Afghanistan, tens of cutting-edge articles using Afghan data published in top journals, amounting exactly to what?
Why are some authoritarian regimes dominated by parties and others by the military? I argue in this new
@govandopp
article that these divergent origins often lie in leftist vs separatist violence. With cases of Cold War
#Burma
#Indonesia
#Malaysia
#Vietnam
ICYMI our December issue of Democracy & Autocracy assembled an amazing conversation on the theme of “CAPITALISM AND DEMOCRACY, REVISITED.” I’m especially excited about this one, which has been a long time in the making, so please permit me a quick 🧵! 1/7
Is
#Indonesia
's democracy cartelized? My latest installment addresses critiques and argues that while party cartelization has been abating and evolving, recent improvements in accountability remain tenuous and reversible.
The work of universities may very often be *important*. But it is very rarely *urgent*. We should be leading the charge to
#FlattenTheCurve
by postponing every in-person gathering imaginable as
#COVID19
exponentially spreads.
Can polarization happen between countries as well as within them? I make the case here that heightening polarization between America and China could be as bad for democratization in Asia as polarization within America is bad for democracy at home.
This echoes what I found in Southeast Asia when writing Ordering Power. The most durable authoritarian regimes aren’t those where citizens fear the repressive state most; it’s where they fear their own society more than even the repressive state.
This attempted insurrection exposed the deep fear among the Russian elites, as well as the Russian public, of a national upheaval. Putin carefully plays on this fear. That's why both his statement the other day, and the one yesterday made references to the Russian *smuta*.
So what exactly are you saying the 1000s of us who devotedly study the comparative politics of non-European democracy and political economy are doing wrong? Not being theoretical enough? Not building our own taxonomies enough? Not fitting cases we study into European taxonomies?
The point is that that it seems to me that pol science has not *integrated* the experience of non-Western countries in their taxonomy of political and welfare regimes.
"Staying in power" also isn't the only possible starting assumption for how autocrats strategize: e.g. my work shows how resolving factional conflict and maximizing autocratic control w/in a regime can be more pressing strategic concerns. No survivalist starting point necessary.
My keynote for Chulalongkorn University political science department's 70th anniversary will offer the argument that innovation in poli sci is more about concepts than methods, applying it to both East Asian democratization and the international relations of
#China
.
@umichWCED
My new short book with Mike Albertus and Sofia Fenner, "Coercive Distribution," is now available in Cambridge's Elements format. "Under authoritarian conditions, distribution is less an alternative to coercion than one of its most effective expressions."
"War can make states, but can it also make regimes?......[R]egional rebellions make political militarization more likely not simply in a single region, but more generally."
@PrincetonUPress
@JosephWongUT
It might help to start by noting that the book’s working title was always “Democracy through Strength,” until the very last minute.
That’s our main argument, and it’s still the title of our theory chapter. 2/21
🚨 Award Time! 🚨MPSA's AJPS Best Article Award for 2022 goes to
@saadgulzar
and his coauthors, with
@aurelia_bardon
,
@_adasgupta
&
@dziblatt
as honorable mentions. Details on all the winners, their remarkable research, and what it all means for political science in this 🧵! 1/23