Sander Tordoir @SanderTordoir Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Sander Tordoir

@SanderTordoir

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Senior economist @CER_EU . Eurozone macroeconomic policies | institutional development of EMU | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ecb (+ @IMFNews ) & @Worldbank

https://t.co/Mits4JyYp2

Joined March 2014

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

8 months

The IMF is critical for global governance. But it’s struggling as the port of call for countries in debt distress to seek bailouts and get back on their feet. In a🆕paper, Tobias Krahnke and I propose that the IMF temporarily cap its rocketing lending rates to stay effective.🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

2 years

/1.Big day in EU economic policy: the @eu_commission just published its proposal for a reform of the EU fiscal rules. Here is what it says and what it means (see: )

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Sander Tordoir

8 months

Draghi calls for EU fiscal federalism in @TheEconomist . Europe neither has the federal strategy to finance its supranational challenges nor lets national policies deliver. While only going bona fide federal would enable tough discipline on members' budgets

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Mario Draghi on the path to fiscal union in the euro zone

It will require new rules and more pooled sovereignty, says the former head of the ECB

www.economist.com

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Sander Tordoir

1 month

So a cheeky observation. Germany just doesn't issue enough debt to satisfy demand for core eurozone bonds. So when someone starts screaming 'why is there no market discipline on France?' you can just tell them that the best fix may be... ...a higher German deficit.

@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

1 month

Yup, France is worth mentioning. Its public debt has been on a steady, relentless upward trajectory for a long time now, with few signs of a reversal. But the 🇺🇸 and 🇫🇷 satisfy safe assets demand at scale. The US = the US. France in part because there just aren't enough Bunds.

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Sander Tordoir

10 months

Germany's key industry wobbles. Good chart from @handelsblatt : output of 🇩🇪 four large carmakers is sharply declining. Jan-May, they built 500.000. (-20%) cars fewer in Europe than 2019, even as supply chain snags ease. Tepid demand at home & the China shock are starting to hurt

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Sander Tordoir

2 years

Building the necessary tools for EU fiscal federalism by stealth? @EuropeanCommission proposal for €18 billion support package for Ukraine includes some interesting fiscal-financial plumbing. Short 🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

6 months

The Netherlands heads to the polls tomorrow. Small country, no big deal for Europe right? Perhaps I'm biased, but I don't think that's true. The Netherlands is often a pivotal player in the EU. And this is an era-ending election after 13 years of Rutte as PM. Some observations🧵

@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

6 months

Had the pleasure to write a piece for @BertelsmannSt on the Dutch elections this Wednesday. It's a four-way race for the top spot in a fragmented landscape. Whichever way it pans out, a unique era in which the 🇳🇱 acted as an 🇪🇺 locomotive rather than brake may draw to a close.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

21 days

In 2017, Macron’s call for EU strategic autonomy was prescient. The world has become more unfriendly to the EU’s naïve model of economic openness. Fair diagnosis - but in key areas his Sorbonne 2.0 speech presents a contradictory and unbalanced economic vision for Europe.🧵

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Sander Tordoir

10 months

The collapse of the Dutch government, and the departure of #Rutte from politics after 13 years as @MinPres will have ramifications for the EU. Some reflections 🧵

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Sander Tordoir

11 months

The @EU_Commission just outlined the Sovereignty Fund it promised as Europe’s response to greentech subsidies from the US and China. They call it ‘STEP’: it isn’t a dedicated fund, has little fresh money, and redirects existing spending programs .🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

4 months

"Germany was worst-performing major economy last year" says @FT . But beware the temptation to only blame this on the energy crisis. The cracks in Germany's economic model already started emerging in 2018/2019, and gas prices were still low for years (1/6)

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Germany was worst-performing major economy last year

Rising rates and high energy costs contributed to 0.3% contraction that points to fourth-quarter decline in eurozone

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Sander Tordoir

11 months

Good morning from the Netherlands, where the economy is roughly 5% above pre-pandemic levels. Remarkable that deep integration with big neighbour Germany, whose economy is on balance flatlining for 4 years, hasn’t dragged it down. Having a competitive services sector matters!

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

German finance minister Christian Lindner wrote a hit piece in the FT on the fiscal rules, one day before the @EU_Commission will publish its draft regulation. 🧵

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We need to strengthen EU fiscal rules, not dilute them

Proposed reforms by the European Commission must ensure robust enforcement of the framework

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

Many have been wondering how the Netherlands government will position itself in the EU fiscal rules debate. Today, @SigridKaag sent her gov's assessment of the @EU_Commission proposal for rule reform to the parliament. Here👇 is what it says

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

2 years

I am very excited to become part of the wonderful team @CER_EU . From Standort Berlin, I will work on macroeconomic and institutional developments in Europe's economic & monetary union.

@CER_EU

CER

2 years

👋 Welcome to our new senior economist, @SanderTordoir ! Sander joined us from the ECB - his time there included a 🇺🇸 posting at the IMF. He works on: 🔹 Eurozone monetary & fiscal policy (& institutional architecture) 🔹 European integration 🔹 🇩🇪 in 🇪🇺

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Sander Tordoir

5 months

FT title: "EU ministers agree tough debt reduction rules" Bloomberg: "EU strikes fiscal rules deal with gradual path to rein in debt" Reuters: "EU governments clinch deal for more lenient fiscal rules" So which one is it? Sounds like, well, a European compromise.

@ftbrussels

FT Europe

5 months

EU ministers agree tough debt reduction rules

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Sander Tordoir

11 months

In the market for green tech, the #EU is fretting about losing out to subsidised production in the US and China - a panic fed by anecdotes of multinationals divesting. In a new paper, @Johnspringford and I dug into trade data which tells a contrarian story

Europe can withstand American and Chinese subsidies for green tech

European policy-makers are fretting about subsidised green tech imports from the US and China. But shipping costs are increasingly discouraging imports of these goods from faraway countries.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

7 months

The old trope is that profligate Europe has a debt problem. Debt-to-GDP ratios today: 🇺🇸: ~120% 🇬🇧: ~105% 🇪🇺: ~91% (but heterogeneity) Just sayin. Any argument on this should contend with the observation that the public debt surge is an international, not eurozone phenomenon.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

3 months

As @adam_tooze rightly notes: "if you want to see dramatic changes in the world economy, the place to look is not to trade, but Foreign Direct Investment. Since 2022, inbound FDI to China, once the world’s premier destination, has fallen off a cliff."

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Sander Tordoir

30 days

In a new speech Draghi rightly slams Europe‘s approach to competitiveness post-2008: „We pursued a deliberate strategy of trying to lower wage costs relative to each other - and combine this with proyclical fiscal policy, the net effect was to weaken our own domestic demand“. 1/2

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Sander Tordoir

4 months

German debt brake ‘too rigid’, say panel of government advisors, recommending changes to the constitutionally enshrined borrowing curbs. Hard to find any experts or sane-thinking folk (w/out political constraints) that want to keep the brake as is.

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German debt brake ‘too rigid’, say government advisers

Panel of experts recommends changes to constitutionally enshrined borrowing curbs

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

🆕paper: as Brussels and Berlin battle over #fiscalrules , there is a risk that the #EU repeats past mistakes. Together with @jasperhvandijk and @VJZiesemer we propose stronger and more politically savvy enforcement mechanisms to solve the trade-offs.

Five proposals for enforceable EU fiscal rules

As the EU reforms its fiscal rules it risks repeating past mistakes. The EU should couple Commission discretion with stronger enforcement mechanisms to get member-states to follow debt reduction...

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

1 year

European clamor about the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has lately focused on ramping up a EU green industrial strategy of its own. But what is happening on the diplomatic front to mitigate IRA-discrimination of EU firms? The US might throw the EU some bones. Thread🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

1 year

The @ECB cannot dispel great economic uncertainty, but it can improve how it navigates it. That is why @ShahinVallee and I argue in our piece that ECB decision-makers need to embrace internal debate, and be open about it, rather than feign consensus

Europe's central bankers should cherish their disagreements

Promoting an open debate instead of forging consensus behind closed doors could make the European Central Bank’s decision-making culture more effective.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

3 months

Dutch engineering jewel. Hard to think of a more valuable single (manufactured) product. Wide-body aircraft come close-ish: Airbus A350 and Boeing 777s go for~$300-350bn. I suppose a whole cruise ship or superyacht has a higher sticker price

@TheStalwart

Joe Weisenthal

3 months

This is ASML's new $380 million machine.

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Sander Tordoir

4 months

In a new study, we analyse the Europe’s ‘de-risking’ agenda through the lens of the key dependency of the EU economy: 🇩🇪relationship with 🇨🇳. The de-risking toolkit falls short of the geo-economic risks the EU faces, which today’s Commission proposals don't address. Summary🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

11 months

The German economy has been stagnating for years and the outlook is measly. Berlin should fundamentally reset its growth strategy, rather than clinging onto a failing model of industrial export corporatism. My latest with @Shahinvallee for @IPQuarterly

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Germany Needs a New Growth Model

Berlin should fundamentally reset its growth strategy instead of clinging to a model of industrial export corporatism that is flatlining.

ip-quarterly.com

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

3 months

This an unpopular opinion in my town Berlin but the only solution to surging rents here is building way more housing and increasing density. Simple supply & demand. Even if developers build high-end apartments, people move from somewhere else so it frees up space for others.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

8 months

“Ramping up housing construction merely benefits the rich” is something you hear a lot in Germany, especially in Berlin. The FT reviews recent literature and comes to the more logical exact opposite conclusion. More housing frees up space and brings down rents for everyone.

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Sander Tordoir

6 months

Ik moet bij de VVD terugdenken aan de conservatieve CSU in Beieren. Die hebben een tijdje geprobeerd de AfD tegen te houden door een deel van de toon/campagne onderwerpen over te nemen. Dat liep niet. De les die ze trokken: "Du kannst ein Stinktier nicht überstinken".

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Sander Tordoir

23 days

Ironic because in Berlin many think von der Leyen is too French in her thinking. So the theory is: too German for Paris, too French for Berlin, and they end up unseating her for an Italian? Aha This could also just be Macron showing his teeth to extract concessions from UvdL.

@Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman

23 days

Corroborates what I picked up in Paris: Macron think VdL is in Berlin's pocket & will be even more so once she's re-elected and looks to form an EPP alliance with Merz (likely next German CX) Macron Gauging Support for Plan to Install Draghi in Top EU Job

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Sander Tordoir

6 months

Karlsruhe reads its head. The German constitutional court torpedoes some of the creative bookkeeping with extrabudgetary vehicles to comply with the debt-brake. This is a big deal for German climate/fiscal policy, politics, and the EU. Some reflections 🧵

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Sander Tordoir

3 months

No surprise really though - Italy’s industrial prowess is a fact that most commentators like to ignore because it doesn’t fit their stereotypes.

@heimbergecon

Philipp Heimberger

3 months

Italy is the second-largest industrial location in the EU behind Germany - well ahead of France, Spain, Poland etc. New Eurostat data for 2022.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

The @EU_Commission just published its EU green competitiveness strategy the ‘Green Deal Industrial Plan’. Here is what it says and means👇 (here is the link

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

The Netherlands is now the biggest of the small economies in the eurozone, following the big four (🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸). One key reason:🇳🇱population growth massively exceeded all its peers over the 20th century. Great analysis from newspaper @nrc

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

In a new op-ed for @POLITICOEurope with @jasperhvandijk we argue that the EU is at risk of repeating past mistakes with its fiscal rule reform.

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It’s Groundhog Day for EU fiscal rule reform

As hawkish members seek to water down the Commission’s attempts to make the rules more sensible, the bloc will only end up going around in circles.

www.politico.eu

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Sander Tordoir

2 months

Given the Dutch political climate's turn against skilled migrants, chip giant ASML warned it might move future growth outside the country (France). The NL government now responds with 2.5 billion in industrial policy to alleviate growth chokeholds. Sensible-sounding stuff 🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

5 months

A few of the remarks by acting 🇳🇱 @MinPres Rutte on Europe this morning in Berlin struck me. 🧵

@DelorsBerlin

Jacques Delors Centre

5 months

In his opening remarks @thehertieschool Prime Minister @markrutte highlighted the importance of 🇪🇺 cooperation, particularly in moments of geopolitical upheaval.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

New twist in the EU fiscal rules saga. The German government has drafted a non-paper, offering suggestions for safeguards and debt reduction benchmarks to the @EU_Commission . Its a constructive offer masquerading as hawkish grandstanding🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

6 months

Wilders victory reads like a page from the Meloni playbook. Esp on last campaign stretch. Soften tone on Dutch EU exit and vehement anti-Islamism. Look electable. But ‘Netherlands first’, blame migrants and advocate for big social welfare state. Then add in volatile Dutch voter…

@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

6 months

Wilders’ far-right set to become biggest Dutch party by big margin. Voters broke massively for him om the last stretch. Exit poll (150 seats); PVV (Wilders) 35 GroenLinks-PvdA (Timmermans) 26 VVD (Yesilgöz) 23 NSC (Omtzigt) 20 Here come the headlines. As they should…

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Sander Tordoir

10 months

Commission VP & green tzar Timmermans is leaving Brussels to head up a newly created joint social democratic-greens list in the November Dutch elections. This upends the campaign in NL and has legislative implications for the EU. 🧵

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Sander Tordoir

5 months

A few reflections on the fiscal rules deal just reached by EU ministers, based on what we know. It is a balanced package that imposes more realistic constraints than the old rules. But it has flaws that may lead to a renegotiation of the EU’s fiscal arrangements in a few years

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

9 months

Germany and now and Japan are dethroned from the top of the global car market. The China shock for Europe’s carmakers is real and, so far, there’s been little policy (re-)action.

@adam_tooze

Adam Tooze

9 months

China toppled Japan to be the world’s #1 car exporter in 1st half 2023 = first time ever. China exported over 2.3 million vehicles in the first six months, a leap of 76.9 percent from a year ago. EVs to Europe. IC to Russia.

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Sander Tordoir

23 days

UvdL is right on the diagnosis. Since we don’t have a proper European industrial policy - or even a coordinated one - to level the playing field, tariffs are the likely blunt tool of choice. So be it.

State of the Union: From Putin's war to a trade war?

If she wants the EU to be greener, fairer, and more resilient, Ursula von der Leyen, or whoever comes next, should stay away from trade spats and support a more ambitious industrial policy instead.

@vonderburchard

Hans von der Burchard

@vonderburchard

23 days

Von der Leyen indicates that EU tariffs on Chinese cars are likely to come: “We like fair competition. What we don't like is when China floods the market with massively subsidized e-cars. That is what we are fighting against. Competition yes, dumping no. That must be our motto.”

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Sander Tordoir

10 months

@alanbeattie @adam_tooze Certainly didn't help, but German economic weakness began pre-pandemic, with significant slowdown in 2018/2019 amidst the Trump trade-wars and Dieselgate, coupled with a decade+ of under-investment and a lack of modernizing reforms.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

It's been 6 weeks since the @EU_Commission 's legislative proposals for a new 🇪🇺 fiscal framework. A 🧵with a review of the main critiques that have surfaced: will the new rules stymy investment, be pro-cyclical or lack teeth?

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Sander Tordoir

30 days

Indeed. This medicine didn’t work well then (though it did for DE because China filled the demand gap), it certainly won’t work now. As I wrote in January, Europe‘s surplus is back - we don’t need to regain price competitiveness. But to boost internal demand - esp. Germany. 2/2

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Sander Tordoir

11 days

US attempts to de-risk tech from China are expanding in scope. 🇳🇱 has dealt with US export controls for years, but they're now ensnaring more EU countries, esp 🇩🇪. EU countries lack a strategy to respond. In a new paper, @Zach_CER and I provide some ideas.🧵

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

5 months

Tonight, over dinner, European finance ministers hope to hammer out a compromise on EU fiscal rule reform. So where do things stand, what are the remaining bones of contention, and what would a deal mean?

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

Third, I find Macron’s knock against trade agreements like the one with Mercosur baffling. Macron rightly frets that Europe’s strategic problem is that two of our largest markets – China & US – are at risk of becoming closed to us. Trade diversification is then essential.

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Sander Tordoir

2 months

Taking over from the Dutch, who are leaving the scene in a futile attempt to hide one of the world’s most open and international-oriented economies behind some dikes.

@APHClarkson

Alexander Clarkson 

2 months

The Poles become marriage counsellors for the Franco-German relationship

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

21 days

Macron is right that cross-border EU industrial policy projects (IPCEIs) are plagued by complexity and need simplification. But we must create a true EU marketplace first, otherwise semi-European champions will squeeze consumers, not facing competition

@Zach_CER

Zach Meyers

22 days

But, while countries dither on harmonisation, Letta suggests competition authorities pretend national regulatory barriers don't exist. 2 mobile firms in 1 country cld merge: DG-COMP wd simply assume another EU mobile firm wld enter if prices went up. What could go wrong? /6

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Sander Tordoir

3 months

Big fan of Frankfurt. Germany is my home. But Wirecard, anyone? Germany is also addicted to cash money. It fought a culture war against getting rid of the 500 euro bill, used primarily for crime. It feels pretty off to put the EU's new anti-money laundering watchdog here.

@SebastianMack_

Sebastian Mack

@SebastianMack_

3 months

Frankfurt will host the European Anti-money laundering Authority #AMLA . Since Germany is not a poster child when it comes to combating financial crime, the decision comes with a responsibility for the biggest EU member state to bring its own house in order.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

The #EU needs to prime the public investment pump. But, well, we are not very good at getting money out the door, let alone to projects on the ground. EU countries are way behind on capturing payments from the recovery fund. Key exceptions: Spain and Italy. 🧵

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Sander Tordoir

2 years

7)So the EU is taking another small step towards having a “real” budget and debt-management setup akin to federal or national fiscal authorities. For details see

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Sander Tordoir

8 months

UK still in “flick-the-switch” mindset to the marriage? To ever rejoin EU, the big political project is to re-conceptualise membership in UK collective political imagination: not transactional but a beneficial long-term bond w privileges/responsibilities, compromises, ups/downs.

@BergAslak

Aslak Berg

8 months

Seems like the EU has swiftly gone from being wrongly cast as the source of all UK problems to being wrongly cast as the solution to all UK problems.

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Sander Tordoir

2 months

I really struggle with this constant barrage of ECB staff leaks. I’m a former staffer and I find it unprofessional they hang dirty laundry out every time they disagree with the Board. As staff you fight for your view and analysis and if the EB decide differently you toe the line

@lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦

2 months

The ECB's staff committee is exactly right. The ECB is not democratically elected. Its actions must be strictly within its democratically set mandate.

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Sander Tordoir

4 months

In a new piece, reflections on two statesmen who represented profoundly different philosophies for European integration: Jacques Delors and Wolfgang Schäuble. And what they might teach us about today's EU panic about losing economic competitiveness.

Delors, Schäuble and Europe's misdiagnosed competitiveness problem

European Commission President Jacques Delors and German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble left their mark on the European project. Their thinking can still help Europe out of its current geo-econo...

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Sander Tordoir

2 months

Worthwhile crisp piece from the IMF on the German economy. Very good that the Fund says the role of the energy price spike in the growth malaise is overblown. The Fund rightly points to other more central issues, like underinvestment, red tape and demographics.

@IMFinEurope

IMF Offices in Europe

2 months

Germany 🇩🇪 faces serious economic challenges, but not necessarily the ones that get the most attention. The solution lies in ambitious reforms. Read more in our latest blog:

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Sander Tordoir

8 months

“Ramping up housing construction merely benefits the rich” is something you hear a lot in Germany, especially in Berlin. The FT reviews recent literature and comes to the more logical exact opposite conclusion. More housing frees up space and brings down rents for everyone.

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Sander Tordoir

11 months

Interesting! But the EU budget is pretty stretched, so where is the money coming from? Are they assuming member-states will fail to spend some their EU budget and recovery fund allocations until 2027 and repurposing it? Or are member-states asked to top up?

@Mij_Europe

Mujtaba Rahman

11 months

‼️ Big @EU_Commission package coming next Tuesday for Ukraine and also EU response to Inflation Reduction Act. Understand support for Ukraine could equal €72bn up to 2027 - a mix of loans and grants for budgetary support and post war reconstruction

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Sander Tordoir

4 months

If I achieve nothing else this year, then popularizing the label "Mickey Mouse budget" for the tiny EU industrial policy fund does it for me. Tbc: this isn't the @EU_Commission 's fault but the inability of the whole EU to come up with a coherent plan for industrial policy.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

The Commission published its fiscal rule legislative proposals. What are the key changes and how do the negotiations proceed from here? 🧵

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Sander Tordoir

9 months

In the market-liberal Netherlands industrial policy was, for a long time, a total taboo. But the government’s coffers were meanwhile propping up the fossil fuel industry at scale. Aha.

@LaurievdBurg

Laurie van der Burg

9 months

Study published today by @SOMO , @PriceofOil & @milieudefensie estimates NL’s fossil fuel subsidies at €37.5 bn/yr - much higher than previously thought. Redirecting these subsidies can reduce NL’s emissions by up to 20% by 2030. What are we waiting for?

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Sander Tordoir

7 months

The heterogeneity is obviously not great but the big story here is that overall eurozone debt levels - and even more so for the EU - are now much lower than the US (which enjoys exorbitant privilege of course).

@EU_Eurostat

EU_Eurostat

7 months

Euro area government #debt down to 90.3% of GDP in Q2 2023 (90.7% in Q1 2023)

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

21 days

Reversing this requires encouraging consumption, not savings. Admittedly, not a French ailment: but one driven by Germany and others with very large surpluses. But when Europeans jealously eye the US economy, the consumption dimension is often forgotten.

Delors, Schäuble and Europe's misdiagnosed competitiveness problem

European Commission President Jacques Delors and German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble left their mark on the European project. Their thinking can still help Europe out of its current geo-econo...

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

25 days

Facts vs old tropes. The persistent French deficit is a cause for concern. But in parts of southern Europe debt is coming down very fast. Greece debt reduction is nothing short of stunning.

@DanielKral1

Daniel Kral

25 days

The unfolding debt reduction episodes in Southern Europe are for the history books. The ones in 🇬🇷🇨🇾🇵🇹 are already the fastest on record - and likely soon to be the largest on record.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

4 months

The AfD calling for a referendum on a German exit from the EU seems like a self-defeating move. Only 10 per cent of Germans - and only 42% of AfD supporters - back a Deutschland Exit. AfD is not copying the 'play moderate' playbook of Milders and Meloni.

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@FT

Financial Times

4 months

Alice Weidel says the UK was 'dead right' in leaving the EU. Breaking a big national taboo, the far-right leader tells the FT she will call for a referendum on 'Dexit' — a German exit from the bloc — if elected

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

Criticism flying after day 1 ECOFIN ministerial meeting. After @BrunoLeMaire , 🇩🇪 is now getting called out by NL finance minister for risking to block fiscal reform. She calls the attitude "concerning", rejects Lindner's threat to "return to old rules"

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Akkoord over Europese begrotingregels onwaarschijnlijk door harde Duitse opstelling

Forse bezuinigingen dreigen voor zuidelijke lidstaten omdat Duitsland weigert in te stemmen met een versoepeling van de begrotingsdiscipline, die is voorgesteld door de Europese Commissie. Minister...

www.volkskrant.nl

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

2 months

The German finance minister claims that debt will be <60% by 2028, so there will be fiscal space (eg for Bundeswehr) then, even without a debt brake reform. Two observations. First, a factual point: there's no connection between the debt level and deficit in the debt brake.

@c_lindner

Christian Lindner

2 months

Wenn wir bei den Staatsfinanzen diszipliniert bleiben, dann liegt die Schuldenquote 2028 unter 60 Prozent und auf Vor-Corona-Niveau. Ohne die #Schuldenbremse verändern zu müssen (!), sehe ich dann neue finanzielle Spielräume. Für die #Bundeswehr werden wir sie brauchen. CL

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Sander Tordoir

27 days

"Subsidy race with US and China would harm Europe’s ailing economy" IMF warns Broadly agree with the Fund. But the choice for Europe shouldn't be misrepresented as a blanket free-trade v industrial policy binary. There are sectoral shades of grey. (1/5)

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Subsidy race with US and China would harm Europe’s ailing economy, IMF warns

Fund urges EU to avoid ‘protectionist’ policies and focus on cutting internal trade barriers

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

21 days

His answer: double down on paradigm shifts. Less focus on competition and more industrial policy, boost investment w €600-1000 billion py, cut back regulation + market fragmentation, introduce ‘buy EU’ in key sectors, be imposing in trade deals. But the devil is in the detail

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

1 year

Must-read for those interested in sovereign debt issues

@GrundSebastian

Sebastian Grund

@GrundSebastian

1 year

Publication day for my book "Sovereign Debt Restructuring and the Law - The Holdout Creditor Problem in Argentina and Greece"! @RoutledgeLaw Grateful to everyone who supported me and in particular to Lee Buchheit, Mitu Gulati, and Ross Buckley for their reviews.

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Sander Tordoir

10 months

Commissioner Timmermans wants to return to Dutch politics to lead the newly joint social democratic-green list in the November elections.

@repasi

René Repasi

10 months

Great news! ⁦ @TimmermansEU ⁩ wants to become lead candidate for Red-Green joint list for the Dutch national elections on 22 November!

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

Let’s also not forget that eastern European and smaller countries (DK, NL, PT, GR) that need the internal market and can't lavish firm-specific subsidies everywhere, are the green shoot in the otherwise stagnant post-pandemic EU (Franco-German!) economy. Chart via @DanielKral1

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Sander Tordoir

6 months

Wilders’ far-right set to become biggest Dutch party by big margin. Voters broke massively for him om the last stretch. Exit poll (150 seats); PVV (Wilders) 35 GroenLinks-PvdA (Timmermans) 26 VVD (Yesilgöz) 23 NSC (Omtzigt) 20 Here come the headlines. As they should…

@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

6 months

Indeed far-right Wilders getting the most votes of any single party in NL will make huge headlines. Important nuance is that it’d ‘the biggest’ in a fragmented landscape with the top 4 neck-on-neck. Still.

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Sander Tordoir

6 months

Post-election negotiations in 🇳🇱 are off to a fitting start. The ‘scout’ Wilders appointed to explore possible coalitions resigns after @nrc reveals a previous employer has charged him with fraud involving hundreds of thousands of €. Bodes well for Dutch governance in a new era

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

7 months

Many seem to believe fiscal rule reform will or should collapse. @MESandbu calls on Europeans to wrap it up as the EU has bigger fish to fry. I agree: the rules are a piece of plumbing on which to build, not the best instrument to pursue large policy goals

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Narcissism of small differences delays accord on EU fiscal rules

The 27-nation bloc must strike a deal soon in order to prepare for much bigger economic and geopolitical challenges

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Sander Tordoir

2 months

In fact EU EV exports to China are languishing at a very low level, whilst growing rapidly in other markets. So if anyone is ‘banning’ anything it is China banning EU-built EV imports (de facto if not de jure). Not the other way around.

@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

2 months

Some slightly misleading issues here. First, the EU isn’t considering ‘banning’ Chinese EVs. But trade measures (eg tariffs) to restore the level playing field depending on its subsidy investigation. Second, revenue ≠ DE/EU exports. VW produces a lot in China for China.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

Banking risks are mounting in Europe. The EU should now move fast to shore up its banking union to resolve failing banks safely and avoid risks from spilling over to state coffers. Lesson from the Eurocrisis: that requires a 🇪🇺 fund. Fortunately, we have a candidate: @ESM_Press

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Sander Tordoir

4 months

Tomorrow, the @EU_Commission will present some steps to Europeanise the economic security toolkit, especially vis-à-vis China. But with another Trump presidency in the offing, 🇪🇺 and 🇩🇪 need to accelerate their efforts much more, we argue in @DIEZEIT

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Donald Trump: Europa ist auf Trump nicht vorbereitet

Exportabhängigkeit und Handelsüberschuss: Die Probleme zwischen der EU und China sind schon groß genug. Trump könnte die europäische Wirtschaft in die Krise stürzen.

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

21 days

Second, Macron wants to reduce EU market fragmentation. But his idea to rely more on flexible national implementation is self-defeating. National fault lines have every x divided Europe vis-à-vis superpowers. EU autonomy cannot have member-states behaving Gaullist.

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

And risking the single market, and its level playing field, to compete with China and the US is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. It remains an engine of prosperity and a source of diversification and resilience. The trade patterns speak for themselves @JohnSpringford

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Sander Tordoir

8 months

French-German economic government advisers tell🇪🇺 to dial down its anxiety over the Inflation Reduction Act, calling the EU approach superior. Meshes well with @JohnSpringford and my finding that Europe is ahead, not behind, the US in green goods, tho...

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Sander Tordoir

1 month

Yup, France is worth mentioning. Its public debt has been on a steady, relentless upward trajectory for a long time now, with few signs of a reversal. But the 🇺🇸 and 🇫🇷 satisfy safe assets demand at scale. The US = the US. France in part because there just aren't enough Bunds.

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@spignal

Stanley Pignal

1 month

Martin Wolf spells out the limits of government borrowing. Some pretty worrying dynamics in America (which he mentions) and France (which he ought to have done!)

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Sander Tordoir

8 months

One of the wilder things about European macro right now is that single companies are driving significant GDP growth in entire (tho small countries): Novo Nordisk in Denmark and ASML in Netherlands. And then, of course, there is the phantom growth of Ireland…

@JosephPolitano

Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈

@JosephPolitano

8 months

Demand for weight loss drugs Ozempic/Wegovy is so strong that it's single-handedly keeping the Danish economy out of a recession Since last year, headline Danish GDP has grown 1.1%—but it would have dropped 0.9% without the pharmaceutical industry🧵

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1 year

🆕Op ed in @EURACTIV with my take on the legislative proposal for new fiscal rules. I don't think they will slam public investment or exacerbate recessions in the immediate future, but they might haunt the eurozone in the long-term.

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EU fiscal rule reform has become a defensive fight

The new EU fiscal rules proposed by the Commission will not slam public investment or exacerbate recessions in the immediate future, but they might haunt the eurozone in the long-term, Centre for...

www.euractiv.com

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

This won’t even serve Germany itself. Its economy did relatively less bad during the pandemic/energy crisis, but growth looks tepid. It was weak in 2019, it’s weak today. After a decade of sluggish investment and 0 reform, reducing DE’s growth strategy to austerity won’t work.

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Sander Tordoir

27 days

It’s of course totally fair for Germany to want to protect taxpayers money. But they are also citizens that need employment, security, mobility and a viable environment - and at times EU solutions can provide those where national ones cannot.

@robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

27 days

One of the truly unfortunate things in the Euro zone is that Germany inevitably gets called anti-European for blocking proposals that - one way or another - will cost German taxpayers money. The Euro zone debt narrative is truly broken. The low debt countries are the bad guys...

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

But in reality, a European sovereignty fund was quickly abandoned by France given a chance to get German support to loosen curbs on national state aid. So, it’s hard to have faith that in 2025 – when this framework is reviewed – France will fight for a true EU solution.

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

Macron warns that the EU faces mortal threat from economic decline. The US and China are no longer playing by the old free-market rules, investing heavily in the sectors of the future through public and private financial support, whilst biasing in favor of their own industries.

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Sander Tordoir

2 years

2/ The shortcomings of the current rules have been widely debated in many excellent contributions, follow @PhilippaSigl @EFB_EU @Shahinvallee @jasperhvandijk @ErikFossing @jzettelmeyer @LindnerJS and see

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Reforming the EU Fiscal Framework: Strengthening the Fiscal Rules and Institutions

The EU’s fiscal framework needs reform. While existing fiscal rules have had some impact in constraining deficits, they did not prevent deficits and debt ratios that have threatened the stability of...

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@SanderTordoir

Sander Tordoir

8 months

In her State of the Union address today ( #SOTEU ), President Von Der Leyen tasked the formidable Mario Draghi with writing a report on how to resuscitate EU competitiveness. That may prove to be helpful, but I find the “competitiveness” framing off the mark, even pernicious. 🧵

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

The IMF published its spring ‘flagship’ economic, financial and fiscal analysis. It contains several key messages for the EU: remain vigilant on financial risks, beware of budget cuts and tough choices loom ahead from any geopolitical fragmentation. Some key points and charts👇

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Sander Tordoir

2 months

Doubling down on areas where Europe has the lead (like some of the tools to make chips) keeps the EU an indispensable partner to the US and others who each have chokeholds on the supply chain. So a good move by the Netherlands, that will benefit the EU.

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Sander Tordoir

5 months

Enria's track record. Pandemic, war, banking crises in the US & Switzerland. And Europe's banks have been resilient under his stewardship. For supervisors measured by accidents that don't happen, that's stellar. Competence & modesty aren't in vogue these days, but they deliver

@ecb

European Central Bank

5 months

Outgoing Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria sat down with President Christine @Lagarde to reflect on his five-year term: the challenges, the decisions taken to overcome them, and what the future holds. Listen to #TheECBPodcast

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

Overall, the speech felt like a French wish list: an offer for a genuine grand bargain would have a different feel. Where is Macron’s opening to Germany, the frugals, or more market-liberal countries? Of course, in 2017 it was a policy speech; this time it's a campaign speech.

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

Ouch. Agreement between EU member states on principles for EU fiscal rule reform fell apart yesterday. Council conclusions for the @EU_Commission to develop legislation were agreed at technical level but @c_lindner reneged on it. Looks like the Commission scored own goal...

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Sander Tordoir

21 days

First, Macron wants to create ‘European champion firms’ by boosting support for transformational sectors (greentech/AI) and through ‘buy European clauses’ (defense/space). That might work if done in a proper European way, which to be fair, Macron advocates for.

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Sander Tordoir

6 months

Had the pleasure to write a piece for @BertelsmannSt on the Dutch elections this Wednesday. It's a four-way race for the top spot in a fragmented landscape. Whichever way it pans out, a unique era in which the 🇳🇱 acted as an 🇪🇺 locomotive rather than brake may draw to a close.

@GED_Tweet

Global & European Dynamics 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

6 months

For the first time in 13 years, Dutch elections are taking place without Mark Rutte on the ballot. What are the parties in play? And what could the outcome mean for the #EU on topics like fiscal integration, migration & QMV? @SanderTordoir explains here:

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Sander Tordoir

1 year

The op ed is not technically deviating from the German non-paper but it cherry-picks the hardest lines and flies against any spirit of compromise. If Lindner does not get his way, he seems to threaten to blow up the reform: “Otherwise changing the rules would not be advisable”.

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