The US military has confirmed that Iran has launched a barrage of rockets on the Al-Asad base where US troops are based. Other US facilities in Iraq are also reportedly under attack.
A major development amid reports of US jets leaving their base in the UAE: it has been *confirmed* that Iran's Air Force has taken off from its bases. This risks becoming a full-scale war between the US and Iran.
The US has apparently gone all-in tonight: according to rumours in Baghdad (and regional reports), Qais al-Khazali and Hadi al-Ameri have been arrested by US forces - these are two of Iraq’s most powerful militia heads.
Iran's military says it has killed 30 US soldiers in Iraq tonight. US officials have only reported Iraqi casualties so far. Important to watch how this develops.
Rockets have struck the US Embassy in Baghdad - its dining facility has been hit but the extent of the injuries/damage still unclear. This is a significant escalation that has prompted immediate condemnation from the PM. It could very easily set off another round of conflict.
Reports indicate the attack is still ongoing. It seems Iran has initiated the first of what is likely to be a series of retaliatory attacks on the US. A very dangerous escalation.
There are now reports coming in that Iran has upped the ante by striking a US military base north of Baghdad. This is quickly becoming a transformational escalation, one that risks becoming a full-fledged conflict between the US and Iran on Iraqi soil.
Huge: US official confirms Iran has also fired ballistic missiles at a US military installation in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, which provides facilities and services to hundreds (possibly thousands) of coalition personnel and CIA operatives.
“A senior Pentagon official then confirmed to Newsweek that Muhandis was indeed killed, along with Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, pending DNA results that had a high probability of identifying the two men as the targets”
This is a simultaneous attack on US forces involving Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Iranian missiles launched from Iran. Huge and very worrying development.
Other than a sustained campaign of strikes initiated over an extended period, the other possibility is that the Trump administration is pulling off a Michael Corleone hit: settling all its business by moving swiftly & decisively against the entirety of Iran's proxies in Iraq.
Sources in Baghdad are reporting *both* Qassem Soleimani & Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis were in the convoy struck by the US tonight. There's no turning back if that's the case - the US is committing itself to a full-fledged conflict with Iran, one that won't be confined to Iraq.
Major development in Baghdad: it's now confirmed that the US has struck & killed a top Shia militia leader. Unclear whether this was in response to the rockets launched by Iran's proxies earlier tonight or if it was a pre-emptive strike. Either way, this is a serious escalation.
Reports of a US strike on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq are coming in after three explosions were heard in Jurf Sakhar southwest of Baghdad, a major Ketaib Hezbollah stronghold and sanctuary. Media accounts linked to Iran’s proxies have reported fatalities.
Reports coming in suggest the US has struck a convoy carrying senior PMF officials. There's been a tectonic shift in US policy it seems - and if Iran's going to avenge Soleimani's death anyway then the US may now see no reason *not* to go after Iraq's most powerful militia heads.
Powerful and beautiful emotional lift for the Italian people. The approaching plane represents the Coronavirus, which is overcome by the Italian airforce and the colours of the national flag.
Indeed, and he could have very easily gone for a life of luxury on the international speech-giving and lecture circuit. This is what you call courage and conviction.
People keep asking why Navalny went back to Russia...some have called it foolish.
How do you think change happens? It doesn't happen from a comfy apartment in Berlin or New York.
It happens when people like
@navalny
are willing to sit in prison or take a bullet.
Confirmed. What's becoming apparent is that the US is no longer carrying out ad-hoc attacks on militia groups in Iraq. What we may be witnessing is an intensified US *campaign* of airstrikes designed to undermine, contain and paralyse Iran's proxy network in Iraq.
Reuters: Air strikes target Iraqi militia convoy north of Baghdad, killing six people. Hamid al-Jazaeri, Deputy Leader of Saraya Khurasani has been killed. Huge.
CNN reporter: "Remarkable. Turkey, a NATO ally, has pointed the barrel of its gun at US forces, who felt so threatened today they had to call in air support."
$88 billion spent developing the Afghan army
$25 billion spent on the Iraqi army
Both capitulated to rag-tag fighters. High time that we learn from these egregious failures by revising conventional approaches to security sector reform and institution building in fragile states.
This is astonishing. President Trump isn't backing down & has doubled down on attacking Iran's cultural sites: “They’re allowed to kill our people. They’re allowed to torture & maim our people...And we’re not allowed to touch their cultural site? It doesn’t work that way"
Powerful tribute. Whistles blown in Wuhan to honour, mourn and pay tribute to Dr. Li Wenliang, the doctor who was silenced by police after warning about the
#coronavirus
.
Horrific news coming out of Iraq. Analyst
@hushamalhashimi
has been assassinated. He was an important voice in the analyst & peacebuilding community, a proponent of reforms and accountability in the midst of the brutal crackdown against protesters. A huge loss for Iraq. RIP.
Important not to dismiss tonight’s still ongoing developments as just an Iranian face saving reaction. Iran’s response to Soleimani’s death has *begun* - the real retaliatory attack may materialise later, unless there’s a turn of events that takes us toward de-escalation.
Beautifully put by
@KoriSchake
:
“Unless the US gathers like-minded countries to establish and enforce the rules somebody else will, and you will like those rules a lot less than you will like the rules that the US and its friends created out of the ashes of WWII”
President-elect Biden has said he wants America to retake its position of global leadership – but should it?
@PeterBeinart
argues no: “We need a little bit of humility. We can be part of the solution, but we have not earned the right – nor do we have the power – to be in charge.”
Bold move tonight from Iraq’s Prime Minister. Iraqi security forces have raided a HQ of Ketaib Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy that threatened to burn Iraq to the ground if
@MAKadhimi
became PM. This could quickly escalate & will cause significant discomfort in Tehran.
Official killed by the drone strike was Mohammed Ridha, the PMF's Head of Protocol who was alongside Ketaib Hezbollah head Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis during the embassy attacks. Ridha was killed alongside a group of visitors (Iranian advisors?) but it's too soon to know who they were.
That’s awful news for Iraq’s protesters, who could soon be victims of a major crackdown. Politically, these groups will consolidate their control through an expanded campaign of coercion & intimidation. Absent a US strategy, its Iran & its proxies who have the final say in Iraq.
If Iran’s proxies in Iraq (who have been on the receiving end of anger from protestors) have everything to lose then that makes them the most dangerous - but not the most desperate. These groups actually feel they have acted with restraint amid wide-ranging local/external threats
All eyes are on how Iran will retaliate but it’s Iraq that is heading to the brink - once again. Iran will also have a range of questions for the Iraqis - how did the US know of Soleimani’s arrival in Baghdad? Who leaked the intel? Watch the Iraqi political space. Heads will roll
US strike on Iran-backed militias was absolutely necessary. UAV attacks on the US & its allies have increased significantly & needed a response. Timing couldn't have been better. Iraq hosted Pres. Sisi & King Abdullah today - tonight's strike sends the right signal to ally & foe.
Iran is upping the ante: Iranian state affiliated Tasnim news has warned Hezbollah will target Israel if there is a US retaliation. Iran's proxies in Iraq have announced the start of "Operation Crushing Response"
Major crackdown on protestors in Iraq underway. Muqtada al-Sadr’s support was critical but it was withdrawn after he struck a deal with the government & Iran’s proxies - they have carte blanche to neutralise the protestors. Huge boost for Iran & its allies
“At the Baghdad villa Soleimani told the assembled commanders to form a new militia group of low-profile paramilitaries - unknown to the US - who could carry out rocket attacks on Americans at Iraqi military bases” via
@Reuters
At the same time, keep a close eye on the scale of the crackdown on protesters tonight. The missile attack on the US embassy might also be a smoke screen to deflect focus from a potentially brutal and concerted effort to suppress the protesters.
George Floyd protests in Amsterdam. I don’t think we have seen anything like this since
@GretaThunberg
inspired an international movement to fight climate change two years ago.
Soaring wheat prices could ignite social unrest & conflict in the Middle East:
- 50% of Tunisia’s wheat comes from Ukraine
- Yemen: 30% of its wheat comes from Russia & Ukraine
- Lebanon: 50% of its wheat comes from Ukraine
- Egypt: 66% comes from Russia
Great piece. An insurgency will benefit from geography in ways that most insurgencies in history could have only dreamed of: Ukraine bordered by four NATO states: Hungary, Poland, Romania & Slovakia. Potential for enduring support & a long-term insurgency.
.
@piersmorgan
to Taliban spokesperson
@suhailshaheen1
“You have two daughters—do they go to school?”
“Of course.”
Millions of girls across Afghanistan continue to be denied the right to an education by the Taliban
#LetAfghanGirlsLearn
At the time some Western journalists, analysts & militia mouthpieces shamelessly justified this attack by calling it an entirely Iraqi operation and Baghdad's attempt to assert its authority. These areas are now used as launch-pads for attacks on Kurdish, Iraqi & US forces.
Newly published footage that dates back to Oct 2017, reveals Qassem Soleimani’s leading role in Iraqi Shia militias attack on
#Peshmerga
& occupation of Kirkuk & other areas. In the video, Soleimani portrays independence referendum as an Israeli project.
One can only hope that the Biden administration will now scrap any plans it has to withdraw US forces from Iraq. That would be a disaster of untold magnitude with both ISIS & Iranian backed Shiite militias looking at Afghanistan with confidence and rubbing their hands with glee.
How Iran Used the Hezbollah Model to Dominate Iraq and Syria. My thoughts for
@nytimes
on the need to appreciate Iran’s role in state building before confronting it in Syria and the region
According to reliable sources, Iran has outlined *seven* retaliatory attack scenarios sanctioned by the Iranian leadership. Tonight's attack will apparently pale in comparison to these other far more destructive attacks Iran will launch if there is a US response.
Reports of airstrikes on the Syrian regime's T4 Airbase in Homs, which is operated by Iran & the IRGC (and was targeted by Israel in February after an Iranian drone entered Israeli airspace). This follows earlier reports of jets flying east from the Mediterranean across Lebanon.
The suffering that this must inflict. Around 4 million people and 16% of the world’s refugee population have fled from one conflict zone to another in recent years.
Spare a thought for the refugees from other conflicts who have settled in Ukraine. Muhammed is originally from Afghanistan, has lived in Kyiv for five years and runs a mobile phone accessory business. He was waiting at the border for four days. Two without a car in the cold.
Dark times ahead for Iraq: Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhami has been attacked by Iran-aligned Shiite militias. For context, I wrote this for
@BrookingsFP
on why these are desperate times for Iran & its militias, & why this escalation has been in the making.
Iraq has officially become a battleground for conflict between the US & Iran. The US may still decide against striking targets in Iran (as long as there are no US casualties tonight) and instead opt for an intensified de-capitation campaign against its proxies in Iraq.
Who was Qassem Soleimani? The answer is he was much more than a military commander: feared & loathed but also admired & respected for being a formidable and highly skilled political operator. Read this excellent
@NewYorker
profile by Dexter Filkins.
“It was unclear how close the alleged plotters were to carrying out the plan, or what, exactly, they planned to do. The intelligence official described the plan as well-organized and said the plotters appeared to have foreign ties”
Senior Hezbollah leader Mohammad Al-Kawtharani - responsible for Hezbollah's Iraq file and a top confidant to Qassem Soleimani - was also killed by the US drone strike in Baghdad.
Muqtada al-Sadr continues to set the bar: no other group could plausibly organise a million man march so disciplined & organised, one that re-affirms the Sadrist movement’s status as Iraq’s most powerful socio-political organisation - in case there was ever any doubt.
At least one US personnel has been wounded according to
@AP
. Lest we forget, it was the death of *one* US contractor that promoted a major US retaliatory response against Iran’s proxies.
Make no mistake, yesterday’s attack by the US has rattled the pro-Iran camp in Iraq, who haven’t experienced this devastation for a long time & can no longer be confident of operating with carte blanche & impunity. The airstrike has diminished & dented their aura of invincibility
Rocket attack on a US base in Erbil, minutes after Biden announces the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Timing isn’t coincidental. Iran & its Iraqi proxies are big on symbolism & never miss a chance to discredit, undermine & embarrass the US, even if it results in civilian casualties
Big development in
#IraqiElections
: PM Abadi doesn't just lose in Baghdad but wins fewer votes than Muqtada al-Sadr (413,000 votes), the PMF (233,000), Maliki (211,000) and Allawi (204,000). Abadi comes fifth with just 194,000. Baghdad accounts for around 69 seats. Serious blow.
Rather than stunting and constraining Iran’s proxy network, Soleimani’s assasination will produce more militia groups and inspire a new generation of combatants who will be absorbed by Iran’s formidable regional proxy infrastructure.
Death toll on the increase & is likely to be much greater than the numbers initially reported. Three Iranian officers on the ground in their capacity as surface-to-surface missile experts also killed according to reports. Pompeo's red lines will be taken seriously in the future.
Now confirmed that the US airstrike has killed *at least* 19 Ketaib Hezbollah fighters and has wounded at least 35. The magnitude of this strike, its decimation of strategically important facilities & the significant human & symbolic costs it has generated cannot be understated.
Response from the US may be determined by the scale of the injuries but also the injuries sustained by US personnel when Iran struck a US base on Jan 8. The Trump administration may have sufficient basis or feel compelled to initiate another round of attacks on Iran’s proxies.
US base in Erbil has come under attack. It’s the only location where US personnel & Western diplomats could safely relocate to amid reports of a pending US strike on Iran’s proxies ahead of the US elections. Foreign missions had already started preparations. Brazen move from Iran
Fortune favours the bold. Twist in the story
@amberinzaman
recently broke. British firm’s deal with the Assad regime in tatters after a US firm signed an oil deal with the Kurds. A rare win for a non-state actor in a world where statehood reigns supreme.
The colour and atmosphere that these photos and others capture of the Pope’s visit to Kurdistan is really something, and befitting of a historic visit to a true safe haven for Christians and other minorities. Great to see this acknowledged by
@Pontifex
today.
Vicious campaign to strike protesters underway. Disturbing reports coming in from many Iraqis. Much to dissect but tonight’s escalation is not disconnected from the events & politics surrounding Muqtada al-Sadr’s withdrawal of support for the protesters.
More details are starting to emerge from Baghdad. All indicators (and reliable sources) suggest that both were struck. Worth pointing out that neither the PMF or Iran (or the Iraqi government) have said anything yet to suggest otherwise.
Local sources say the US has targetted Hezbollah's headquarters in al-Qusayr according to
@3z0ooz
. Major development if true as it would almost certainly trigger a reaction from Iran and its proxies.
When as a foreign journalist, author or official, refer to the constitutionally recognized Kurdistan Region as "Northern Iraq," they are not just disrespecting the people of Kurdistan but also losing the respect of the people here!
Saddam was not a threat to his neighbours according to Mehdi:
September 1980: Saddam invades Iran
August 1990: Saddam invades Kuwait
January 1991: Saddam launches ballistic missiles against Israel
Iraq/Saddam not analogous to Russia/Putin because Putin is actually a threat to his neighbors. But reaction in parts of our media is reminiscent of Iraq/2003: talk of appeasement, shouting down of questioners, hawks ascendant (many Russia hawks were also Iraq hawks, funny that)
Rockets have been fired at US targets in the past hour. Ketaib Hezbollah has also requested (warned) Iraqi military personnel to keep away from U.S bases. A much larger response to the US airstrike seems to be in the making.
Pleased to see my new paper on Syria's future published, which draws on the lessons of 1990s Iraq to make a case for *enclave governance* & explain why Syria's future does not have to be a choice between restoring the regime's authority or ongoing conflict.
Syrian regime troops already moving north to Kobane, according to reports. In 2016 Assad vowed to retake every inch of Syria from his foes. The US isn’t withdrawing. It is surrendering to the regime and its backers, Russia and Iran.
Senior Iraqi politicians are mourning the passing of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The PMF has released a statement confirming his death. The US has assassinated Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Important to note that Ridha is an assistant to (and is very close to) Al-Muhandis, who just days ago warned of a "very tough response on the American forces in Iraq." There may now be no going back from this. Very difficult days ahead for Iraq.
Official killed by the drone strike was Mohammed Ridha, the PMF's Head of Protocol who was alongside Ketaib Hezbollah head Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis during the embassy attacks. Ridha was killed alongside a group of visitors (Iranian advisors?) but it's too soon to know who they were.
Baghdad. Litmus test for Prime Minister Kadhimi who now needs to deliver after months of promises and an expansive messaging campaign at home and abroad.
“Killing Baghdadi was like a puzzle. Every intelligence service contributed somehow to finding a piece of the puzzle, which eventually came together and led to the final operation.” Prime Minister Barzani speaks to
@ABC
This is a huge development. There are an increasing number of reports coming in that suggest two US nationals have been killed after Iran’s proxies launched an attack on a US base in Iraq.
Iraq has a new Prime Minister. A major development for a country that has been in a state of political paralysis since November, one that comes as Iraq was moving increasingly toward the precipice amid a series of crises that the new cabinet must now quickly move to contain.
Now confirmed that the US sent F-15 fighter jets and Apache gunships in response to the encroachment of Turkish backed militias, who came very close to US forces west of Ain Issa.
CNN reporter: "Remarkable. Turkey, a NATO ally, has pointed the barrel of its gun at US forces, who felt so threatened today they had to call in air support."