Pedro H Dejneka @PHDChicago Twitter profile

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Pedro H Dejneka

2 months

How did the Brazilian Agricultural revolution happen? Is the growth sustainable? Where are #soybean #corn production & exports headed? Much of what was said there - over 1yr ago - has already played out, i.e.: ✔️ “🇧🇷 will double 🇺🇸 soybean exports” You don’t want to miss it

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Ladies & Gentlemen… Find your #soybeans price analysis below, completely free of charge 😉

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 month

@NBA_University Jokic Wemby Fox Bridges Caruso

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

@LegionHoops In order Jimmy, Steph, Book, Harden Steph/Jimmy interchangeable Booker playing unreal - love his game - tough to upend Jimmy/Steph down the wire but a debate could be easily had

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

@JoePompliano “hard times make strong men…”

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

@BallislifeBets “Simple box out”?!? 🧐

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

11 months

@LegionHoops @MontePooleNBCS *Tier 1* Nuggets Celtics Bucks Suns “Dark Horses” Clips Mavs Sixers Cavs

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Quite self explanatory - you are welcome! #soybeans

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Soybean & Soymeal market analysis in 20s ⏱️ You are quite welcome!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

8 months

Does the world *NEED* another 160 MMT #soybean crop from Brazil? Short answer: NO Even if BR loses 30 - 35 MMTs (far fetched scenario today)... ...South America *COULD* still harvest a record crop above 20/21's 201 MMTs! Let that one sink in... a little context goes a long way

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

#soybeans price analysis… Absolutely free of charge 😉

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

6 months

@Ballislife Legal - pivot foot lifted but never landed prior to shot - legal modern basketball move

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

6 months

#soybeans - reminder that even with: Brazil @ 140 MMTs (our current range is ~ 154 - 158) & Argentina @ 45 MMTs (current range 47 - 52) South America would have a new record in #soybean production! Context Matters

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

@AndurandPierre

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

#soybeans a little perspective goes a long way... As it stands & despite the lower estimate today from USDA, this would be the 4th largest crop ever in the 🇺🇸, and a mere 1.5 MMTs or 60 mbs below last year's all-time record Maybe, just maybe - markets are overreacting a tad ;)

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

🧵This morning @GoddessofGrain referred me a question on "how Brazil "makes"😄more land for agricultural production?" This 👇🏻 is how: increase in land for #grain production comes mostly from pasture-land conversion. Potential for continued growth is underestimated by most...

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

@GuyDealership Can we just go back to when cars were driving and not entertaining machines?

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

@DjokovicFan_ 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🎯🎯🎯

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

@ClutchPointsApp 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🤙🏻🏀👊🏻 well earned and well deserved!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 years

#soybeans world export share since 2000 🇧🇷🇺🇸 "a picture is worth a thousand words"... #MDCommodities #oatt

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

5 months

#soybean futures don’t like spending much time between $11-$13 historically.., Brace for upcoming volatility A retest of $13+ is still in the cards - but unless we see major surprises out of SA in next few weeks OR in the upcoming 🇺🇸 #plant24 summer crop: < $11 2H24 ?!? ⚠️

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

🇧🇷 Safrinha #Corn - Safrinha "weather market" is basically done - Seasonally rains stop for most of Center-North Brazil by end of April - Ideally, farmers would like to see rains through April and early May - but unfortunately looks like not this yr - That is already “baked in”

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

4 months

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 #𝘀𝗼𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 + #𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗯𝘆 𝗮 𝘄𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝟰𝟲,𝟳𝟬𝟬 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀!!! 𝘋𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘦…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

Opening calls #CBOT Soybeans +45c Corn +30c Wheat +35c Oats +Triple Daily Limit Disclaimer: no matter how much food we produce, world is running out of food (again); anyone that sells grains/oilseeds does not understand that‼️(sarc.) 👀 ⚠️ Also disclaimer: not trading advice

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

Brazil's new soybean export record illustrated: - 1st time ever over 90 MMTs - record reached by OCT!!! 👀 - exports likely reach past 100 MMTs this yr but yes... please keep making headlines about "port delays" and "Brazil's unfit infrastructure"... instead of actual results

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

The power 155 MMTs of soybeans: (important context if one thinks world “needs” 🇧🇷 at 160+) - 🇧🇷 exports reached a new record @ 90+ MMTs… by the end of Oct!!! - 🇧🇷 will have its largest carryout ~ 8-10 MMTs in history - still ~ 20 MMTs unsold from 22/23 - harvest begins in Jan

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

5 months

The #soybean boat is sinking - & the permabulls are eerily quiet... Seems now that even some of the permabulls are turning "bearish / neutral" - that's a warning sign as the ones late to the party could crowd the bearish side & temporarily flip the boat Tech bounce soon?!?

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

It’s that time of year folks! 🇧🇷 #soybeans 22/23 plating window is now officially open… We are likely headed for one of the best start in years. Chart below offers great perspective & is a very important point of reference for any discussion regarding 🇧🇷 planting 🪟& pace

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Grain market analysis for this week…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

If you are somehow bullish demand for 🇺🇸 #soybeans , I imagine you have not looked at CIF price relationships lately...

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 months

If you’re surprised by the move in #corn this week… well… don’t be. There is ZERO fundamental reason for #corn #soybeans to hold a rally in the CURRENT environment Yes, we will see technical bounces, but unless we get a MAJOR change in supply and/or demand, rallies won’t hold

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

If you are buying #soybeans because you think 🇧🇷 is under siege & will not be able to export beans, I have a oceanfront property I can sell you at a huge discount in the middle of Mato Grosso 😉🤦🏻‍♂️👀

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Thread 1/4) #CONAB Brazil #Soybeans Comments from an email I just wrote to a client: “Not surprised with the estimate at 140.5 MMTs (which is exactly our pre-report estimate for Bloomberg - see pic). It’s just too early to reduce much more than that.”

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Thread (10) on Brazil #soybeans & why the actual size of the crop no longer matters ✔️ It is now almost February & debate still rages on about the actual size of the 🇧🇷 #soybean crop ✔️ That is no longer productive! ✔️ Focus should now be on EXPORTS Read on for more details…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

#soybeans #corn With FUNDS considerably long & 🇧🇷🇺🇸 producers quite undersold for both old / new crop, the "emergency exit" could get very tight when/if most try to exit at the same time ⚠️ The "risk management" exit meanwhile is wide open for those that choose a long term view

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Land use in Brazil ✔️ Currently only ~8% used for agriculture ✔️ Pasture land (23% of total use) conversion main source of agricultural expansion #soybeans #corn #Cotton

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

YES - funds are "too short" corn & beans 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐚𝐢𝐝, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐋 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐀𝐑𝐌𝐄𝐑 𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐆 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟑𝐱 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐨𝐲𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

There are literally ZERO “fundamental” reasons to be long #corn #soybeans #wheat at this junction… zilch… That said, I’ve been around the #grain markets long enough to know that nothing is “guaranteed” When one side of the boat gets too crowded, LOOKOUT! Shorts are crowded &…

Peak Trading Research

@PeakTrading

2 months

BIG SHORTS 📢. Funds are now the shortest they've been across the #agriculture complex in 4.5 years (-617k contracts, -$14.4B) 📉, betting that soft demand, ample global supplies, and the strong dollar 💵 will keep prices down as we get deeper into risky planting weeks. 🚜🌽

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Hearing bettor is a farmer with less than 20% of their corn & beans hedged 😳

Darren Rovell

@darrenrovell

1 year

When the Chargers went up 27-0, a bettor bet $1.4 million on them to win the game to net $11,200. Jacksonville came back and won 31-30. @DKSportsbook has confirmed that this bet was indeed made.

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

8 months

Brazil's #soybeans shipment line-up for rest of '23 is ~7 MMTs The long tail of 🇧🇷 soybean exports is definitely a major reason why U.S. export sales are trailing last year by 8+ MMTs & counting 🇧🇷 beans ~$60/ton cheaper than 🇺🇸 Feb fwd 🇺🇸 window for major soy exports is tight

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

5 months

Soybean fundamentals are at this point mostly - if not all - bearish (which should bring caution for the bears… yes… for the bears) - Supply: 🐻 - Demand: 🐻 - Wx: 🐻 - Macro: 🐻 But ⚠️… too many on one side of the boat & not 👀… bull could surprise even if only temporarily

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Boy… by looking at some of these current headlines about Brazil #soybeans one would easily be fooled into thinking that 80% of the country’s crop is in awful shape 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️ When reality is ~20% of the area has issues, from serious to mild, while ~80% is is absolutely great shape!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

✔️ #soybeans better Wx for 🇧🇷 next 2 wks accelerates harvest & beans to ports ✔️🇧🇷 beans considerably cheaper than 🇺🇸 (pic) ✔️🇺🇸 exp to severely lag next few months. Final 22/23 🇺🇸 exp likely between 1.9 - 1.95 bb ✔️🇧🇷 exp window extends into Oct - eats into 🇺🇸 23/24 exp. ⚠️

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 month

🧵 As a grain trader - it is important to understand that there is REALITY & there is PERCEPTION You must accept that PERCEPTION (as ridiculous as it may sound most of the time) will often trump REALITY… in the short term Longer term - REALITY wins

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 years

Did you know that Brazil only uses ~7% of its land for agricultural production? Pasture land (23% of total area) conversion is the main source of agricultural area increase The higher prices go/stay, the more incentive there is for prod. increase #soybeans #corn #cotton

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

8 months

Brazil corn & soybeans🧵! Don’t miss it! 🌽 #CORN 22/23 crop (just harvested) clocks in ~137 MMTs 👀 new record by nearly ~20 MMTs 22/23 🇧🇷 exports: 57+ MMTs!!! For reference: 🇺🇸 finished 22/23 w/ 42 MMTs in exports (down from ~70 two yrs ago when 🇧🇷 exported only 20 MMT 👀)

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

8 months

Latest Brazil #corn #soybeans production estimates, MD Commodities: 🌱 Soybeans: 159.1 MMTs - still a record if confirmed & down ~15 MMTs from max potential (range 155 - 165) *Dec Wx key* 🌽 Corn 117.2 - down 20 MMTs y/o/y but still tied 2nd largest ever (range 110 - 125)

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

South America #soybean production currently estimated at a new record of 221 MMTs by MD Commodities - 𝟐𝟎 𝐌𝐌𝐓𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎/𝟐𝟏 - 𝟐𝟕 𝐌𝐌𝐓𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐲𝐫 Likely range for final production is 210 - 228 MMTs

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

In #commodity trading, it is said that cash side of the market usually "tells the truth" / reflects reality much better than the futures side Fwiw cash markets in Brazil, the largest producer & exporter of #soybeans in the🗺️are telling a much different story than CBOT futures🤔

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

🇺🇸 #soybean exports come Jan/Feb

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 years

Thread 1/7) Here’s the real scoop on southern Brazil drought & potential impacts on #soybeans #corn prod & exports… ✔️ yes, parts of RS & PR (2nd & 3rd largest #soybean producers) are dry w/ less than 1” (25mm) since late Nov ✔️ Southern tip of MS & W. SC also on drier side

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

5 months

IS THE GRAIN BEAR TIRED?!? Are funds pressing the bear too hard with the South American crop yet to be determined?! 𝘌𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥 (𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘺 10+ 𝘔𝘔𝘛𝘴) 𝘪𝘯 𝘚𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩 𝘈𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 months

Soybean market MUST KNOWs: ✔️SA is in the rear view, priced in ✔️Funds got too short & are reducing exposure ahead of 🇺🇸 24/25 season (wise move) ✔️Market is highly technical & was “oversold”, rallies will happen ✔️Fundamentally however, market is still “structurally bearish”…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Remember, just a few months ago, when the world was going to run out of #natgas ? 🧐

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

🧵 Brazil - China #corn A “done deal” for corn exports from 🇧🇷 to 🇨🇳 being reported ✔️ But is it really done? ✔️ If so, when would exports begin? ✔️ How much can 🇧🇷 export to 🇨🇳? ✔️ What does that mean for 🇺🇸 corn exports? This and more below 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Nice steady rains this morning in northern Paraná, after heavy rains last night in multiple regions in central/eastern half of the state, in southern Brazil 🇧🇷 Crops in this region of the state still have excellent production potential w/ more rains on the way #soybeans #corn

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

🇧🇷 #soybeans now $35/ton cheaper than 🇺🇸 from Feb-fwd ✔️ Brazil to dominate #soybean exports through at least Sep.; longer if crop @ 137+ MMTs ✔️ 🇺🇸 window for larger exports virtually closed - max exports seen ~1.8-1.85bb, 200-250mb below USDA. Carryout @ 500+ mb (~13.5+ MMTs)

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

6 months

For those that still don’t understand why #soybeans are down hard despite the historic drought in regions of Brazil… see below 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Post from 12/12/23 - you’re welcome!

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

6 months

#soybeans - reminder that even with: Brazil @ 140 MMTs (our current range is ~ 154 - 158) & Argentina @ 45 MMTs (current range 47 - 52) South America would have a new record in #soybean production! Context Matters

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 years

Brazil #soybean thread: Sharing an email I wrote to a client this morning replying to a question about the situation in 🇧🇷 Just some more “factual perspective” about what is really happening with the bean crop in 🇧🇷, read on 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

10 months

Calculating 🇺🇸 #CORN carry-out…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Farmers worldwide… pay attention ⚠️

Variant Perception

@VrntPerception

1 year

Fertilizer prices lead food inflation

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

Context: 🇧🇷 production could fall to 145-150 MMTs (far from a reality TODAY) & there’d still be too much beans in the world if 🇦🇷 has OK crop However, weather mkt would ensue 1st with beans rallying hard towards $15+ as perception trumps reality in short term

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

@UCBearcat92 If rains don’t arrive as advertised around Nov 20th for Central 🇧🇷 beans will get ballistic & will lead meal 👀 That said, forecasts are in agreement & rains have migrated to 6-10 day period - something that was not happening before as rains kept getting pushed back - let’s see

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

The U.S. #soybean crop went through: - one of the hottest & driest June on record - hot & dry Wx to finish July - hot & dry Wx in 2nd half of Aug and yet prod. loss was ~10 MMTs or ~8% a LOT still needs to happen before 🇧🇷 soy crop is down anywhere close 8% from max of 170+

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 years

#corn #soybeans competitiveness charts into major markets: Draw your own conclusions…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Our updated Brazil #soybean production estimate: ✔️ Will MT score its 1st ever 40 MMT crop? Combines will tell us (MT produces more than IA + IL + 1/2 MN 🇺🇸) Lots still TBD in 🇧🇷 w/ #Wx key over next 4 wks, esp. for RS. (See link for more details)

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Thread 1/4) #CONAB Brazil #Soybeans Comments from an email I just wrote to a client: “Not surprised with the estimate at 140.5 MMTs (which is exactly our pre-report estimate for Bloomberg - see pic). It’s just too early to reduce much more than that.”

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

#SOYBEAN Basis Brazil Does this chart illustrate concerns over "harvest delays" in Brazil??? You be the judge...

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

4 months

There is ZERO fundamental reason for #soybeans #corn or #wheat to rally here. Literally ZERO. That said, plenty of instances when ag commodities rally despite very heavy fundamentals Powerful - but short lived - rallies can’t be ruled out, despite current fundamentals

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Just going to leave this here… fwiw

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Soybean & Soymeal market analysis in 20s ⏱️ You are quite welcome!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

5 months

🇨🇳 #soybean demand has been "stale" for years... per our chat on spaces right now with @yeticapital99

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

#soybeans #corn We've had sort of a "perfect storm" in "headlines" this week to cause some mild short covering: - USD down - Talk of exaggerated soy losses in RGDS 🇧🇷 - Slow planting pace in 🇺🇸 - "better than expected" meal exports (in march) - dryness for Safrinha in Brazil

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

11 months

#soybean market trying to price short term supply issues with lack of demand growth for 🇺🇸 beans

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

This makes no sense. The crop is 80%+ harvested. New crop #soybean planting is literally 6 months away… Let’s be careful with the narratives folks… **The world is not running out of food** - not even close.

Jack Nicas

@jacknicas

2 years

Brazil, the world’s largest producer of soybeans, purchases nearly half its potash fertilizer from Russia and Belarus. It has just three months of stockpiles left. Now farmers are using less, if any, and the soybean crop, already hit by a drought, is likely to be even smaller.

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

8 months

Just going to leave this here… #wheat #foodcrisis #oatt #grains #Commodities

Oleg Levchenko

@OlegLevchenko3

8 months

#WheatUkraine due to low wheat prices EX-Farm some ukr farmers adjusted to burn wheat in dryers to reduce corn moisture instead of gas, diesel or wooden pellets!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

South America #soybeans 1/6) “Weather Markets” in #agriculture are all very similar across the world; emotion takes over & often times issues are exaggerated & become the focus. In SA particularly the story seems to play out very similarly every year in predictable fashion…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

🤦🏻‍♂️ #soybeans Folks… we’re doomed 🤦🏻‍♂️ - the 🇧🇷 #soybean crop may not reach 155 MMTs 👀 It will “only” be ~ 150 MMTs, only 25 higher than last yr, only ~13 higher than previous record & will only allow for 95 MMTs of exports, 20 more than last yr 😵‍💫 What a headline! FFS! 😵‍💫🤦🏻‍♂️

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

@DDFalpha will be joining myself, @GoddessofGrain @BenRand10 & others as we explore Brazilian Agriculture growth through the years & educate ourselves on fact vs fiction of what 🇧🇷 agriculture is really like Tune in! 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

6 months

@TweetsbyCoachP Best overall combination - not always necessarily “the best 5”. The importance of the 6th / 7th man positions is seriously underrated and overlooked.

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Brazil 🇧🇷 #soybeans 🚀🌱🚢 In astounding fashion, 🇧🇷 closes Feb w/ a confirmed 9.2 MMTs #soybean exports! ✔️ That is ~ 40% higher than the old record of 6.6 in Feb ‘20 & well above our estimate of 8-8.5 MMTs! There is no shortage of soybeans in the world, despite the drought

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 months

Soybean market MUST KNOWs: ✔️SA is in the rear view, priced in ✔️Funds got too short & are reducing exposure ahead of 🇺🇸 24/25 season (wise move) ✔️Market is highly technical & was “oversold”, rallies will happen BUT ✔️Fundamentally however, market is “structurally bearish”

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

4 months

215+ MMTs for South America on its way… what a yr!! Previous record = 201 **That said, I believe this is already in the price at these levels and focus now will increasingly shift to 🇺🇸 24/25 campaign with very little “weather premium” built into prices & funds record short**

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Article I wrote recently for @Gaftaworld - exploring the incredible growth in Brazil 🇧🇷 #corn #soybean exports Also a “know your facts” session about where Brazilian agricultural land expansion really comes from (hint: it’s not from the Amazon) 😉 Enjoy…

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

5 months

#soybean bounce to be short lived? Dry 🇦🇷 Wx for next 10-12 days offering some technical respite to soybean futures Do rains return to ARG in early Feb? Forecasts say so ⚠️That said - it's difficult to turn outright bullish #soybeans when looking at demand & 🇧🇷 export basis

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

How much #soybeans can South America produce? - If 🇧🇷 production falls to 150 MMTs (> 25 MMT loss), SA 𝗖𝗢𝗨𝗟𝗗 still harvest a new record by ~10 MMTs - 🇧🇷 @ 140 (>35 MMT loss)? Still a new record for SA - see subtweet **🇦🇷 @ 45 / 🇵🇾 @ 10 / 🇺🇾🇧🇴 @ 7** Context...

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

8 months

Does the world *NEED* another 160 MMT #soybean crop from Brazil? Short answer: NO Even if BR loses 30 - 35 MMTs (far fetched scenario today)... ...South America *COULD* still harvest a record crop above 20/21's 201 MMTs! Let that one sink in... a little context goes a long way

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

#Corn Export Growth between 2000 - 2022: 🇺🇸 26.2% 🇧🇷 570.8% 👀 A few assumptions aside as in any longer term view - **By 2025 (or even sooner) Brazil can take over (and likely maintain for years to come) the #1 spot in corn exports in the world**

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

21 days

Want to talk grains “fundamentals”?!? Ok - let’s go! Under current S&D scenarios for 24/25 Corn ~ =< $4.25/bu Soybeans ~ =< $10/bu There’s an entire growing season ahead, Wx premium will not be entirely subtracted - yet - but corn & beans don’t need to be > $4.70 & > $12 either

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

#soybeans #corn Worrying about planting delays in April in 🇺🇸 is equivalent to worrying about “planting delays” in 🇧🇷 during Sep History shows that aside from very few exceptions, it means absolutely nothing to final yield potential 1st half of May to tell the story #plant22

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

✔️ Brazil exported ~ 2.1 MMTs of #soybeans in Jan; 2nd highest ever ✔️ Feb. exports very likely a new record at 7+ MMTs ✔️ Spread between 🇺🇸 vs 🇧🇷 beans narrowed considerably in last 2 weeks but 🇧🇷 beans still more competitive at least to June (no published 🇺🇸 offers JJA)

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

Corn & Soy Producers (who are still vastly undersold) likely get a crack at higher prices during the 🇺🇸 “weather market” as funds scramble to cover shorts at least once… but be mindful that it’ll take a MAJOR crop failure to change underlying bearish long term fundamentals ⚠️

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 month

Here we are on May 20th with basically 70% of #corn & 50% of #soybeans planted and the vast majority of the focus is on *reducing yield* 🤦🏻‍♂️ due to “LaTe pLaNtiNg”… …instead of the historically outstanding conditions present - soil moisture - for initial crop development 🌽🌱

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

4 months

PSA: Any take stating that 🇧🇷 will "greatly reduce" #soybean planted area next year due to either low prices or the "farmer bankruptcy" headlines making the rounds is INCREDIBLY wrong and simply shows a complete lack of knowledge of how agriculture really works in Brazil

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 years

Brazil #corn Did you know? This year’s #Safrinha (second or “winter” corn crop in the country) could alone be 5+ MMTs higher than last year’s TOTAL corn production in 🇧🇷? Weather in March/April will determine how high is high for Safrinha. We currently estimate it at ~90 MMTS!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

Beautiful thing to watch!

𝙎𝙇𝙀 𝘼𝙂𝙍𝙊 🇧🇷

@StaLuziaEsteio

1 year

This video illustrates well what happens in #Brazil 🇧🇷 at this time where farmer harvests the soybeans and the corn or cotton planter comes right behind planting the #safrinha . That’s why I say: #Agro never stops #OAgroN ãoPara

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

6 months

1) anyone that says anything close to “zero Safrinha” automatically disqualifies themselves from any sort of credibility 2) even with area reduction and lower expected yields - looking at 2nd or 3rd largest 🇧🇷 #corn crop potentially 3) 🇦🇷 +25 MMTs in corn prod vs last yr 😉🤙🏻

Andrey Sizov

@sizov_andre

6 months

March #corn is approaching its all-time low...looks like the market is not buying "0 safrinha crop" stories #oatt

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

11 months

#soybean #corn producers holding out to sell without any hedges in place

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

3 years

🇨🇳 #Soybean imports... Analysis by Gru, chart by #MDCommodities #oatt

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

This 🇺🇸 growing season is already doomed folks Current conditions favor a mix of the following: - 2019-like planting conditions - followed by a 2012-like drought - followed by a 2016 🇦🇷 style flood at harvest Also: - followed by a frost in 🇧🇷 during Sep-Dec Subscribe now!

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

1 year

🇨🇳 soy imports could jump from 91.6 MMTs in 21/22 to ~98 MMTs in 22/23 (same level as 19/20) Is that really "bullish" soybeans? You decide... Combined 🇺🇸🇧🇷 #soybean production in 19/20 was 225 MMTs vs ~270 MMTs in 22/23 A 45 MMT prod. increase w/ no increase in imports 🤔

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

🇧🇷 #soybeans - widespread rains have arrived for the 1st in a long while in the 🇧🇷 Cerrado Wx models seem more in tune as the forecast have so far verified It is imperative that this new wetter pattern sticks, as the forecasts currently show… all 👀 on the radar 🌧️🌦️

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

Context Matters: #CORN Yes, current delay in #soybean seeding in Brazil has already impacted the outlook for #safrinha corn We estimate 🇧🇷 corn production ~117 MMTs, ~20 MMTs below last yr's record of 137 𝐇𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬: see chart & sub-tweet

Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

Thx @moscarielloe “🇦🇷 could harvest 55 MMTs of #corn in 23/24, up 22 MMTs from last year” Indeed very likely, depending on Wx of course For context: S.A.🌽 production (MMTs) 22/23: 🇧🇷 137 + 🇦🇷 33 = 170 23/24: 🇧🇷 117 + 🇦🇷 55 = 172 SA remains dominant in corn exports in ‘24

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

4 years

#Soybeans in a tech / $ flow driven rally. Quite amusing “market commentaries” trying to pin the move on “fundamentals”. Prices are very far from “fundamentals”... At some point: fundamentals catch up to $ or prices have to fall back towards “fundamentals” For now: enjoy the ride

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

7 months

BRA soybeans **US$ 60/MT** cheaper than US Feb-fwd into 🇨🇳 Tell me more about that big 🇺🇸🇨🇳 deal about to be announced...🔍

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Pedro H Dejneka

@PHDChicago

2 months

The story on #soybean yields between the world's TOP 3 producers: - 🇧🇷 holds current record @ 54 bpa - 🇺🇸's yield record is ~2bpa lower @ 51.9 - 🇦🇷's record is still just under 50 bpa - 🇺🇸 seems "due" for at least a "challenge" of 🇧🇷's 53.9 bpa record Is 24/25 the year??!?

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