.
@GatesforTexas
with an insurmountable 59% to 41% lead in the EV in
#txlege
#HD28
. The only doubt remaining is whether Gates' double digit margin of victory starts with a 2 or 1. A bucket of cold water on D hopes of flipping the
#TX
House in November 2020.
At the present time
#TX
Democrats are only up in 1 of the 9 seats needed to flip the
#txlege
House (though they are within striking distance in 2), and are behind in 1 seat they need to retain. Suffice to say, the TX House will not be flipped in
#TX2020
.
Population of
#Houston
is:
45% Latino
25% Anglo
23% African American
7% Asian American.
Composition of incoming
#HOU
City Council is:
56% Anglo
38% African American
6% Latino
0% Asian American.
Only 1 Latino, & no Asian Americans on Council for 1st time since '93.
#txlege
In
#HOU
City Council District G, Mary Nan Huffman defeats Tony Buzbee. With ~2/3 of the vote in, she leads Buzbee by an insurmountable 12%, 56% to 44%.
@marynanhuffman
#txlege
In the
#TX22
EV
@SheriffTNehls
won 80% in Fort Bend where ~70% of the 22nd votes are cast. Would appear Wall's multi-million negative TV & Mail campaign against Nehls didn't resonate among the voters who've been voting for him 8+ yrs. Go figure.
EV Result (95%) in
#TX06
Ellzey (R):15.6%
Wright (R):15.3%
Sanchez (D):14.3%
Harrison (R):12.3%
Lassiter (D):9.0%
Allison (D):5.6%
Castro (R):4.9%
Bean (D):4.0%
Ballantine (R):3.0%
Appears anti-Trump Rs and former WWE Rs are not very popular in
#TX6
Wood (R):3.1%
Rodimer (R):2.6%
A strong performance in
#txlege
#HD28
special by
@texasdemocrats
@ElizMarkowitz
who won 39.1%, 10.5% ahead of her GOP runoff rival. 60.9% of the vote went to GOP candidates, but Markowitz's success suggests we're in for a competitive Dec. runoff, with lots of national $$$.
The Texas Legislature was in session in 2023 for more days than at any time in its more than 175 year history. In 2023 the
#txlege
was in session for 246 days, or 67.4% of the year. This broke the previous record of 227 days set in 2003 which had broken that of 224 set in 1871.
The 6k uncounted Democratic mail ballots won't change the outcome of the Democratic Attorney General race where
@JaworskiForTX
led
@MerrittForTexas
by 1,408 for 2nd.
Jaworski won 41% of the mail ballots already counted in Harris, Merritt 16%.
#txlege
Based on the Early Vote numbers across
#TX
it looks increasingly like the
#TXGOP
will retain its majority in the
#txlege
House with at least a few seats to spare.
#TX2020
Republican Senators Up For Re-Election in 2024 (7)
Bettencourt
Campbell
Huffman
King
Parker
Paxton
Springer
Republican Senators Up For Re-Election in 2026 (12)
Birdwell
Creighton
Flores
Hall
Hancock
Hughes
Kolkhorst
Middleton
Nichols
Perry
Schwertner
Sparks
#txlege
#KenPaxton
Too late to be held on May Uniform election date.
Either
@GovAbbott
declares it an emergency or
#TX27
will remain unrepresented until end of the year. But based on my conversations with
#CD27
residents, having no Rep. wouldn't be much different from the past 7 yrs.
#txlege
In
#txlege
#HD28
, the EarlyVote/MailVote will account for 50-65% of all votes cast, meaning
@GatesforTexas
' lead of 10,707 (59.93%) to 7.461 (41.07%) in the EV locks in his victory.
The EV=2nd highest turnout Special House Runoff in TX History. Record to be broken later tonight.
Tomorrow
#Maine
will become the 1st US State to ever use
#RankedChoiceVoting
for a presidential election. And, it's quite possible that the 1 elector from Maines 2nd Congressional District could be decided using 2nd or 3rd preferences. Same goes for
#MESen
The election day numbers suggest
@DanCrenshawTX
will surpass Kathaleen Wall before the evening is over in
#TX02
to finish 2nd. If that happens, Wall will have spent $6 million out of her own pocket to win around 12,000 votes. That would be about $500 per vote.
#txlege
#TX2018
What does it say about the influence of labor unions in
#TX
when the candidate in the
#TX06
special election endorsed by the TX and Tarrant County AFL-CIO, the Teamsters, the CWA, and 2 UFCW locals, wins only 4% of the Early Vote (8th overall, 4th among Democrats)?
6 of 31 Texas Senators and 24 of 150 Texas Representatives did not receive campaign contributions from the Las Vegas Sands during 2022.
#txlege
#SJR17
#HJR97
Well that was quick!
@SheriffNehls
wins the
#TXGOP
Primary Runoff in
#TX22
in a landslide in spite of being outspent by a more than 10 to 1 margin by Kathaleen Wall who spent $6.2m for a 3rd place finish in
#TX02
in 2018 and now ~$7.5m for a 2nd place finish, ~13.7m total
#txlege
Elections in the large counties that had the most problems with lines (Bexar, Dallas, Harris, Travis) are run by a Democrat not a Republican (exception is Tarrant). 1 contributing factor to lines was election day vote centers which led to an inefficient distribution of voters.
4 hour lines in Democratic & minority communities in Texas a preview of voter suppression GOP planning for November. Dems need to keep eyes on prize and develop strategy for combatting this no matter who the nominee is
"In many respects
@SarahforHD134
is the TX House’s 1 true independent. Davis’s independent profile is a natural fit for her purple
#txlege
#HD134
where a majority of voters identify with Davis’s fiscally conservative and socially moderate policy positions"
Early voting data indicate Sylvia Garcia is all but certain to capture the Democratic nomination in
#TX29
this evening, thereby becoming the de facto first Latina ever to be elected to Congress in Texas (since TX29 is a safe D seat).
#txlege
#TX2018
@SenatorSylvia
Voter Ethnicity/Race & Gender in
#TX2022
#TxGov
White W. Abbott (64%) Beto (36%)
White M. Abbott (69%) Beto (30%)
Latino W. Beto (62%) Abbott (36%)
Latino M. Beto (53%) Abbott (45%)
Black W. Beto (90%) Abbott (9%)
Black M. Beto (78%) Abbott (22%)
via
@CNN
#txlege
At half time, the Democratic debate leaves little doubt that Andrew White has a better grasp of the public policy challenges facing Texas along with more concrete proposals about how to address them than Lupe Valdez.
#TX2018
#txlege
#txdemdebate
We're on track to have between 1.25m & 1.75m Texans vote in the
#TX2022
Republican primary and between 0.75m & 1.25m vote in the Democratic primary. That's out of 22m voting age Texans, or 6-8% & 4-6% of the VAP, which is in line with recent levels of voter participation.
#txlege
I'm rooting for
@BucyForTexas
's
#txlege
#HB2859
to pass to engrossment before the clock strikes midnight tomorrow night. It would great to have these comprehensive election returns available via a single source.
The Lone Star State is projected (based on 2017 data) to gain 3 US House Seats (39 total) in the 2020 Census. California is projected to gain 0 (53), Florida to gain 2 (29), & New York, Pennsylvania & Illinois to each lose 1.
#txlege
Via 2
@TexHPF
polls. +13% to -2% in 5 months.
Favorable & Unfavorable Evaluations of
@LinaHidalgoTX
by Harris County Registered Voters.
October 14-27 2021. 48% Favorable & 35% Unfavorable.
March 18-28 2022. 40% Favorable & 42% Unfavorable.
(
#TX2022
report tbr on 4/13).
#txlege
Impressive early voting performance by
@randrewwhite
in Harris County (54.4%). The EV totals indicate that we're looking at a May runoff in the D Gubernatorial Primary between
@randrewwhite
&
@LupeValdez
as expected.
Not a bad night for
@whitmire_john
.
1. He easily defeats his Democratic challenger in
#txlege
#SD15
, 58% to 42%.
2. The Harris County voting machines selected by his principal opponent so far in the
#HOU2023
mayoral race malfunction and delay the counting of the ED vote.
In the
#TX27
heavyweight Nueces County
@MichaelJCloud
won 44% of the EV. That combined with his strong performances in Victoria & elsewhere in the EV leaves little doubt he'll finish tonight with more than 50% and avoid a runoff. Looks like summer in DC for the Clouds.
#txlege
The most recent
@TexasDemography
estimates suggest while
#TX
population increased by 15.9% between 2010 & 2020, population decreased by 10% or more in 15 counties (8 in
#SD28
, 3 in
#SD31
) & by 4.5-9.9% in 35 (13 in
#SD28
, 10 in
#SD31
).
#txlege
#WestTX
SDs will need to Move East.
In the
#txlege
House it looks like we'll have a maximum of around 450 minutes for the 210 house bills (HBs) remaining on the General State Calendar before the clock strikes midnight and they turn into pumpkins.
26
#TX2020
#txlege
House Races to Watch Tonight.
Democrats need a net-gain of 9 seats to flip the House.
Republicans need to limit the Democratic net-gain to less than 8 seats to retain the House.
In July the
@hobbyschooluh
asked
#HOU
voters if they supported or opposed 11th St. style conversions of motor vehicle lanes to dedicated bike lanes such as those which are being re-evaluated by
@whitmire_john
.
54% Opposed & 41% Supported the conversions.
Muchas felicitaciones a la Dra. Carolina Tchintian (ahora de
@CIPPEC
) por ganar el Premio Gardner para la mejor tesis doctoral de 2018 en la Facultad de Ciencias Sociales
@RiceSocSci
de Rice University
@RiceUniversity
Early voting data indicate Sylvia Garcia is all but certain to capture the Democratic nomination in
#TX29
this evening, thereby becoming the de facto first Latina ever to be elected to Congress in Texas (since TX29 is a safe D seat).
#txlege
#TX2018
@SenatorSylvia
@leo3linbeck
@matthewladner
@TexasHDC
@MarkPJonesTx
I would love to see the regional breakdown on respondents. Texas needs to serve black families. But are suburban black families as unhappy as urban black families? Some mixed research on how well black boys are doing in school.
#txlege
#txed
Larger share of the most conservative members of the
#txlege
House GOP Caucus returning for sure in '25.
Green=Retire, Orange=Lost, Pink=RunOff
Most Conservative 25%: 20/21
2nd Most Conserv. 25%: 16/21 (2 RO)
3rd Most Conserv. 25%: 11/21 (4 RO)
4th Most Conserv. 25%: 13/21 (1 RO)
Early Vote Results at 7:00 PM?
Unsolicited Tweets Announcing Upcoming Results Release
Election Day Results Within 70 Minutes of the Polls Closing?
@dtrautman
Where have you been all my life?
#txlege
#HD145
A good night for the
#TXGOP
's efforts to retain control of the
#txlege
House as we move toward crucial redistricting in 2021.
@JaceyJetton
's victory in
#HD26
&
@CarrieIsaac
's victory in
#HD45
improve (compared to their GOP rival) the GOP's odds of holding/flipping the HDs in Nov.
Jim Hogan is an electoral force to be reckoned with for someone whose only campaign activity appears to be paying his filing fee and occasionally checking his Facebook page at the Cleburne Public Library.
#txlege
#TX2019
In the Harris County
#TX2022
County Judge Race, Lina Hidalgo (D) & Alexandra del Moral Mealer (R) are in a statistical dead heat. Among likely voters, Hidalgo leads del Moral Mealer by 1%, 48% to 47% with 5% undecided.
#txlege
Via
@hobbyschooluh
Former
#HOU
Police Chief
@ArtAcevedo
expressing middle of the road pragmatism on
@FaceTheNation
.
2nd. Critiquing
@RodneyEllis
's support for releasing violent criminals onto the streets
#txlege
.
01/21: Acevedo had highest Net Favorability Rating in Harris County (+33). Ellis (+16)
In the
#txlege
#SD30
special runoff
@DrewSpringer
is ahead by 3,381 without any votes from Cooke & Jack counties, which are Springer strongholds. Thus the only question that would appear to remain for tonight is the final margin of Springer's victory.
1 explanation for
@ShawnieT146
votes relates to her constituents:
65% of Black Texans support
#SB15
(ban on transgender women in college sports)
63% of Black Texans support
#SB14
(ban on gender affirming care for transgender minors)
64 (of 83) Republican Held
#txlege
House Seats Rated as "Safe Republican" & 54 (of 67) Democratic Held
#txlege
House Seats Rated as "Safe Democratic". Below are the 32 House Seats Presently Not Rated As Safe for Either the
@TexasGOP
or the
@texasdemocrats
as we enter
#Texas2020
In the
#txlege
#SD15
@MollyforTexas
holds what is most likely an unsurmountable 5,133 to 4,191 lead over
@jarvisjohnsontx
with the Mail/EV in, which likely represents ~60/65% of the total vote
At least 2 of the 3 HCAD director positions (Places 2 & 3) are headed to a June runoff