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James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️ Profile
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️

@JimPethokoukis

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@AEI . @CNBC . My book: 🚀THE CONSERVATIVE FUTURIST (2023) 🚀 Substack: Faster, Please!

Washington, DC
Joined September 2008
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
Pinned Tweet
@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 months
The future we used to dream of is waiting. Here's how to make it happen, finally. 🚀⚛️🧬 THE CONSERVATIVE FUTURIST: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
The option I like: We don't sacrifice America's grandparents. We prepare the economy for a big pause and then a big restart. We act like the world's richest nation on the tech frontier and get our act together to contain and kill COVID-19. Anything less to our everlasting shame.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: "We find a national [facemask] mandate could ... cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6% ... a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: A Democratic "blue wave" would "likely result in substantially easier US fiscal policy, a reduced risk of renewed trade escalation, and a firmer global growth outlook."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: "A Biden win, especially in a "blue wave", would likely mean greater fiscal stimulus, more cyclical upside, less trade policy risk, and a weaker USD/stronger EM FX. Earlier vaccine availability would have directionally similar effects, in our view."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Twitter, a private company, has no obligation to let itself be a tool for insurrection.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
🚀 GOLDMAN SACHS: "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021—the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
"If because of a wealth tax ⁦ @elonmusk ⁩ had left PayPal with $60 million less, would #Tesla and/or #SpaceX have made it past 2008? Kaplan doesn’t think so. “Either SpaceX or Tesla would not exist."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
JPMORGAN morning trading note: "Many clients have told us they are not worried about Omicron itself, but the reaction of governments."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
6 months
Zuckerberg is way richer than me, but I'm pretty sure that if I blew out my knee, I would have the same surgery as him. This simple truth, about how technological advances diffuse through a population, escapes critics of techno-capitalism.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
To try and cleverly pivot to "censorship" and away from the insurrection that happened just a few days ago displays utter moral confusion.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
This is a tough chart for Democrats.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
1 year
GOLDMAN SACHS (Hatzius): All major economies (except the UK) now look likely to avoid recession this year.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
8 years
Some eye-popping numbers on Clinton's growing popular vote lead, via at @TheAtlantic
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Turns out I am a one issue voter: American democracy
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Winston Churchill totally downplaying things:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
This is, to be charitable, an unserious person who continues to do serious damage to his country.
@TuckerCarlson
Tucker Carlson
2 years
The invasion of Ukraine is a humiliating defeat for Joe Biden. He is quickly draining the reservoir of American credibility and power that has accumulated over centuries of wise decision making.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: “... the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, with no clear reduction in the prices charged by Chinese exporters. “
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
This new talking point that immigrants — even if they came here as children — are not *really* patriotic, trustworthy Americans ... is something.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
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@johnjhorton Outstanding 11/10
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 months
Google DeepMind used a large language model to solve an unsolvable math problem
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: "Build Back Better Unlikely to Pass; Lowering GDP Forecast"
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
JPMORGAN: "We now look for a $1.7 trillion fiscal stimulus package (up from $900 billion) to be passed in March. ... we now expect 6.4% (4Q/4Q) GDP growth this year and 2.8% next year We see the labor market getting back to full employment, or around 4% unemployment, by 2Q22"
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Literally every Bernie explanation for every problem is corporate greed. Makes it easy to do economic policy because you don't have to know anything about economic policy. Or costs and benefits. Or trade-offs. Or unintended consequences.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
"By overwhelming margins, voters in Pennsylvania and Florida were repelled by President Trump’s conduct in the first general election debate"
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
This US immigration data, from Goldman Sachs, is incredibly self-defeating:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Profiles in Courage 2015-2020 would be a slender volume. But this Raffensperger might make it.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
THREAD: 1/ The American economy is shutting down. An insta-depression (effectively) encouraged by government to stop the spread of #COVID -19. But the ongoing collapse of 30m small businesses will cause mass unemployment today and painfully slow recovery tomorrow.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
🚀 GOLDMAN SACHS: "In the US, we expect above-consensus full-year growth of 7% in 2021 ... 50% of the population expected to be vaccinated by May ... unemployment rate to fall to 4.1% and core PCE inflation to rise to 1.85% by year-end 2021."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
GOLDMAN SACHS on the policy impact of a blue wave:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Man, to despise immigrants *so much* that you're willing to undermine America's most valuable companies and opt for an economy that generates less wealth and opportunity for you and your kids. That's commitment!
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
JPMORGAN: "The number of permanent job losers increased by 534,000 to 3.411 million, a somewhat concerning sign of labor market sclerosis developing."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: Why Is US Labor Supply So Low?: "... we attribute about a third of the US participation shortfall to the form in which fiscal support was delivered, through generous unemployment benefits instead of job retention schemes."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
I believe we are still underweighting the damage from what may turn out to be a lost year and a half of schooling. And, amazingly, I believe we are still underestimating what a catastrophic debacle America's pandemic response has been.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
JPMORGAN: "Less than 18% of the adult population is reluctant to get vaccinated; less than 8% “definitely” won’t .... In our models, the number of anti-vaxxers is too small to materially change the timing of the pandemic’s end ... not a major risk to the economic recovery"
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
And just a brutal number on business investment, -3.0%. Second straight negative number. How's the trade war going?
@BEA_News
BEA News
5 years
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.9% pace in Q3.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
A nuclear-powered economy is a fantasy. Also, in 2020, nuclear energy accounted for 71% of total energy generation in France -- a completely non-fictitious country.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
"That was some weird shit.” - President George W. Bush
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
Is climate change a serious problem or not? Zero accidents anywhere for all eternity is a high bar.
@CNBC
CNBC
2 years
Nuclear power is on the brink of a $1 trillion resurgence, but one accident anywhere would stop that momentum
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: "Is there a solution to the national housing shortage? Economic research shows that relaxing the zoning rules and other regulatory constraints that have impeded homebuilding for decades would boost supply and lower prices and rents."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
I think we all know how this ends: foreign-born scientist in US develops vaccine, gets deported. #2020
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
I don't know what the right amount of quarantine time is. But a liquidation of the US economy also has health consequences, both long and short. We can't pretend there are no trade-offs.
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
4 years
WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Another 2000 dead Americans today. Will be at 20,000 by the end of the week. Where would we be if the incompetence at the federal level was also seen at the state level in places like Washington, California, and Ohio?
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
As the prophecy foretold…
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 months
I heard America is no longer culturally relevant on a global scale here in the 21st-century
@Jason
@jason
3 months
Knew I should have gone to Tokyo for Taylor Swift
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Wow, a horrific 11-story dorm housing 4,500 students, 94 percent of whom would not have windows in their small, single-occupancy bedrooms. And it's designed by "amateur architect" and billionaire Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway!
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
⏰ THREAD: 1/ The US economy is imploding. That’s the message of the plunging stock market and rising jobless claims. And Washington is not doing nearly enough to stop it. Forecasts of a deep recession followed by a strong recovery are too optimistic. Here’s why:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
Every protest in Paris, no matter the issue, looks like a film shoot for Les Misérables
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
🚨 GOLDMAN SACHS: 2022 Economic Outlook: Unemployment ⬇️ Inflation ⬇️ Growth ⬆️⬇️
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
8 years
Who do the Democrats run in 2020? Mark Cuban? Michelle Obama?
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Again, saying a socialist economy would work great -- if only it were allowed to trade with the rich capitalist country nearby is not the killer argument that socialists think it is #FreeCuba
@JoshKraushaar
Josh Kraushaar
3 years
AOC's Cuba tweet draws fiery response from Florida Dem - POLITICO
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
7 years
Why is US prime-age labor participation rate lower than in most other advanced economies? Goldman Sachs offers an explanation:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
GOLDMAN SACHS: "The US economy does not appear to be on the brink of recession at the moment." More:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
LOVE this. In my Substack, I asked @ATabarrok what he thinks of the argument that China's econ success, particularly in tech, points to a more viable industrial strategy than America's current approach:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Amazing bit of self harm.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
This whole fight over the Biden agenda seems like a behavioral psychology case study. Progressive Dems anchored their expectations when they thought the 2020 elections were going to be a big win -- and when they weren't, struggled to alter expectations
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
More calming words from Winston Churchill downplaying the Nazi threat in 1940 (via @JoeNBC ): "If this long island story of ours is to end at last, let it end only when each of us lies choking in his own blood upon the ground.”
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
🤔| GOLDMAN SACHS: "... labor supply appears to be tighter than the unemployment rate suggests, likely reflecting the impact of unusually generous unemployment benefits and lingering virus-related impediments to working."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Why does JPMorgan think a Biden win is a "neutral to slight positive" for stocks? Corporate tax hikes might not be so bad + Biden better on infrastructure, tariffs. Also less chaos.
@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
JPMORGAN: "The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Saying a socialist economy would work better if it was allowed to trade more with the super-successful capitalist country nearby is not the killer argument that socialists think it is #Cuba
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Another supposed right-wing exodus to Parler, you say?
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
President Trump should absolutely apologize to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a dedicated public servant and patriot, before day’s end.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
JPMORGAN: "Our outlook is broadly consistent with the desired soft landing, with job growth and GDP growth slowing while staying positive, the unemployment rate drifting up over time, and inflation moving back closer to target."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
To stop the collapse of US small business, we need $1.2-1.5t in grants, basically, to replace at least 80% of revenue ... for 3 months ... in exchange for no job/benefit cuts. IMMEDIATELY. Prevent mass unemployment today/enable strong recovery tomorrow.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
All I'm saying is that maybe Democrats shouldn't nominate someone who thinks America is a garbage country that has done nothing good since it allied with the Soviet Union in World War II.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Kramer: “It’s a write-off for them.” Jerry: “How is it a write-off?” Kramer: “They just write it off.” Jerry: “Write it off what?” Kramer: “Jerry, all these big companies, they write off everything.” Jerry: “You don’t even know what a write-off is.”
@CNBC
CNBC
4 years
Elizabeth Warren says she can forgive student loan debt without Congress
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Real talk: Bugs Bunny is the far superior character to Mickey Mouse in every way. No contest. Same goes for Daffy Duck and Donald Duck, of course. Surprised this is not more widely acknowledged.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
If we even come anywhere close to bailing on Ukraine, it will a historic strategic blunder and perfidy -- and to our everlasting shame.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
How author and futurist Arthur C. Clarke saw the 21st century, a timeline:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
Again, here's the modern socialist formula for prosperity: Take a wealthy, technologically advanced society that *somehow* got that way 🤷🏼‍♂️ ... and then add socialism!
@Kasparov63
Garry Kasparov
4 years
As I wrote about Sanders and his supporters four years ago, "Americans talking about socialism in the 21st century is a luxury paid for by the successes of capitalism in the 20th." Rising inequality is a big problem, but getting Trump reelected isn't going to solve it.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
8 months
Greatest economic chart ever
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@KhoaVuUmn
Khoa Vu
8 months
Apparently, all men have a favorite economic graph. Spill it, gents.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
This seems like a good answer from ⁦ @BetoORourke
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
Saying we are in "late capitalism" is like saying we are in "late oxygen" or "late gravity."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
If you get a chance, rewatch President George W. Bush's speech this morning in Shanksville, Penn. A call to civility and common purpose and love for each other.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Stop suppressing conservative speech, I beg of you, FB!
@FacebooksTop10
Facebook's Top 10
3 years
The top-performing link posts by U.S. Facebook pages in the last 24 hours are from: 1. Diamond And Silk 2. Diamond And Silk 3. Dinesh D'Souza 4. Candace Owens 5. PBS 6. Ben Shapiro 7. Sean Hannity 8. Ben Shapiro 9. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10. Ben Shapiro
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
2022 US forecast from @IHSMarkit :
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
ONE RING TO RULE THEM ALL! VOTE!
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
How a healthy, serious nation operates
@BeschlossDC
Michael Beschloss
4 years
Defeated Jimmy Carter and President-elect Ronald Reagan on way to Reagan inaugural, January 1981: #NARA
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
No one tell them that leading GOP intellectual Tucker Carlson wants to turn Google into public utility and the Republican Treasury Secretary would like to investigate Amazon for practicing capitalism.
@DavidMDrucker
David M. Drucker
5 years
NEW: Wealthy GOP donors frightened of a socialist takeover in Washington have boosted support for House Republicans despite concerns about party’s direction. @dcexaminer
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
This defund police is stuff is an amazing political error.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
It's like we're still operating under the Articles of Confederation.
@EamonJavers
Eamon Javers
4 years
President Trump accuses some states of having “insatiable appetites” for medical supplies during this pandemic and being “never satisfied.”
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
I went to a conservative private Christian school in the Chicago area. And I learned slavery was really terrible and a stain on admirable goals the American Project. Assigned to watch "Roots." I kind of find the current controversy baffling.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
7 months
JC gonna flip
@AccountableGOP
Republican Voters Against Trump
7 months
Meanwhile on Truth Social:
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
This is why we have a 25 percent jobless rate and sky-high productivity growth.
@Blevins2020
Ryan Blevins 🧢 🏎
5 years
In 2004 Blockbuster Video had roughly 85,000 employees. In 2019 Netflix only has about 5,500 enployees. That’s what the automation does. It replaces large numbers of jobs, to create just a few new jobs. #freedomdividend #ubi #netflix
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
December Jobs: HUGE 312,000 new payrolls vs. 177,000 consensus. 3.9% unemployment rate, up 0.2%, as participation rate also rises. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 84 cents, or 3.2%.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
BioNTech’s Mr Sahin said he expected the vaccine’s immune response to last for “at least one year” ... adding “There's a very low likelihood that a [mutation of] the virus can overcome the immune response"
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
A harrowing, scorching analysis by CNN's Nic Robertson on the utter inability of the Taliban to keep its promise to keep foreign terrorists out of Afghanistan. It will again be a safe haven for such groups.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
My gods. Hire @levarburton and be done with it.
@Jeopardy
Jeopardy!
3 years
New episodes of Jeopardy! continue this week with guest host @DrOz !
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
this is really outstanding
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
5 years
Fun thought: What if the US economy is improving because of all the stuff “American Greatness” nationalist populists disdain: immigrants, trade, Silicon Valley, economic dynamism. 🤔
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
2 years
JPMORGAN am trading note: "Tail risks diminishing post-CPI, sentiment improving for risk assets: signs that a peak in inflation is behind are growing, which reinforces the idea that Fed hawkishness is likely behind and a soft landing is increasingly likely."
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
7 years
I like drones that aren't captured
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
7 years
We should tell China that we don't want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
7 years
"The only president to take office during a stronger economy is George HW Bush" via @FT
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
🔥 JPMORGAN: "Revised GDP forecast of -2.0% annualized growth in 1Q, followed by -3.0% growth in 2Q. ... forecast assumes a fiscal response of about $500 billion. .... If the spread of virus moderates .... stage could be set for a return to growth in 3Q, when we forecast 2.5%"
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
1 year
When I think about the MAGA crowd, I think about the people who lived in Las Vegas in "The Stand." Pops into my head all the time.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
3 years
Setting aside monetary policy, the US fiscal package tackling the pandemic is over $5 trillion. Even the bit about the checks is wrong. What garbage.
@johncardillo
John Cardillo
3 years
You got $1400. Illegals are getting $86 million in luxury hotel rooms. And no, this isn’t satire.
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@JimPethokoukis
James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️
4 years
According to @CNN , Russian "strongman" Vladimir Putin has been operating in almost complete isolation from his residence outside Moscow. People can only enter through special tunnels where they are sprayed with disinfectant.
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