James Kanagasooriam @JamesKanag Twitter profile

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James Kanagasooriam

2 years

We’ve launched a newsletter “Bi-focal” today at @focaldataHQ . The idea is twice a month giving politics and research curious people some food for thought. Sign up is here

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Fire in your CV and I can interview you next week.

Election Maps UK

@ElectionMapsUK

4 years

spending too much time running this account rather than on mock exams really backfired 😬

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Siri, explain to me why Tony Blair is the only election winning Labour Prime Minister in the last 40 years

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Attacking the Tories for class privilege has famously worked for Labour at the last four great socialist victories of 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019.

Paul Sweeney

@PaulJSweeney

3 years

If only we were all born to privileged middle class parents, got sent to a top private school, Oxford, Harvard, then got work experience in the Tory Party for free, a job at Goldman Sachs, married into a billionaire dynasty, then got parachuted into a safe Tory seat in Yorkshire.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Seeing lots of crazed explanations on Twitter about how really Labour lost this election, and the Tories barely won. The Tories have increased their vote share at every single election since 2001. Almost unprecedented in a western democracy. Have a think, have a nice weekend

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

7 months

We’ve conducted a large poll in Australia (the largest public one of the campaign except YouGov) to assess “The Voice” referendum. The result looks comprehensive for No at 61/39. We’ve also done an MrP on the data and it looks like only 22 of Australia’s seats are for yes.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

We’ve ( @HanburyStrategy ) calculated ward level EU Referendum estimates in England/Wales. Mapping 1000+ real results and 7000+ modelled ones. The picture by ward (RHS) shows a much more complex picture than local authority results (LHS) of Leave rural areas vs Remain cities. (1/3)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Remain has made many strategic missteps. One of them is to nod along to the sweeping, negative, anti-British sentiments emanating out of EU leaders like Varadkar. Nobody is going to back a cause that tells them their country is rubbish. Varadkar absolutely the midwife of No Deal

Darran Marshall

@DarranMarshall

5 years

Taoiseach said Britain “struggled” to accept it was “not as important in the world” and that its economy would be overtaken by France, India and growing Far-Eastern countries.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

I think many have misunderstood the import of Alex Salmond’s new party. The way the D’Hondt formula works is that “Alba” has the potential to be lethal to Unionist parties if they poll above 6%. The way it’s being framed is as if this were a FPTP election and splitting the vote

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Dire Tory performance with young voters is I think driven by 8 factors. 1) % of electorate which is BME 2) Expansion of Higher Education 3) Changing av age of areas 4) ⬆️House price/income ratios 5) Tuition Fees 6) Financial Crash 7) Brexit 8) Rise of Social Liberalism (1/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

7 years

The average @Conservative voter is getting older and older at a faster rate than the U.K population is ageing. This should concern the party

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Just spotted this camper van in Shoreditch. Ballsy move to park this in a Labour seat with a 37,000 majority 😂

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

7 years

Public school+Cambridge alumnus has a crack at a state educated, northern, working class, Bradford uni educated Tory MP for being too posh 🤔

David Baddiel

@Baddiel

7 years

The Tories seem now to have an endless supply of men who could, if push came to shove, play "Minor Royal" in The Crown. #GavinWilliamson

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

16 part thread on where the U.K. Conservative party has historically, and is still, under-performing, and why that's interesting for any upcoming election…(1/16)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Current Tory hegemony in England is driven by paradox that Remainy Wessex is economically more right wing than socially liberal, but huge swathes of Midlands / North are more socially Conservative than they are economically left. That’s why Darlington is blue & Windsor isn’t red

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

I've been quiet this election, so a small thread. This feels like if the electorate had the choice they would elect a Conservative President and a Centre-left parliament. Denied that choice they are muddling their way to a conclusion. (1/9)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

The debate about left-wing bias in BBC comedy is instructive. The opposite of left-wing comedy isn’t right-wing comedy, it’s just comedy. Similar in politics. In focus groups of basically apolitical people who care for the stuff of life and aren’t political and they’re 70/30 Tory

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

“Independence for London” is a political position which is electorally weak, economically regressive, legally impossible and dystopian in the extreme. I can’t think of a policy which better sums up the irrelevance of the Liberal Democrats than this aside.

Siobhan Benita 🇺🇦🌻

@SiobhanBenita

4 years

If I were Scottish I’d vote yes at this stage. London independence from this shambles of a Brexit Britain wouldn’t be bad either.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Remembering my great-great Uncle Richard who died in France as a Ceylonese volunteer 101 years ago, roughly my age. Saddest thing clearing out my late father’s things from his GP’s surgery was the poppy and cross dedicated to this man.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Thread on #GE2019 . Labour polling likely to increase from low/mid 20’s. Current polls driven off those give a voting intention. These DK voters disproportionately include women, 2017 Lab voters + younger voters. When they break it will be to the advantage of Labour (1/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Happy to write my debut column for @thetimes today covering @Dannythefink ’s week off, discussing the average voter - and why it’s probably not who you think and what that means for our politics

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

The gap between a hung parliament and a landslide is very, very small. I think this is appreciated, and therefore the caginess of commentators reflects the data, not a lack of confidence or expertise. No clear answers, but lots of interesting questions. (9/9)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Lots of discussion about the beginning of the end for mega cities, and the hollowing out of them post COVID, with a premium given to space and size. If this does happen I think the political consequences are huge. Small thread on imaginary UK scenario if we’re to happen (1/7)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Ceylan’s NYT journo history is just fleshed out wording of an anti British bot. Her consecutive last pieces; U.K corona hoarding, U.K racism towards Meghan, paramilitary violence in NI, likely breakup of U.K, U.K security failings on terror, falling faith in U.K institutions 😬

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

27 days

Struggling to understand that we could potentially legalise assisted dying but ban smoking. Sorry kids you can’t smoke, but you can end your life

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

This looks like the kind of behaviour any centre-right person should applaud. Looking after your family ✅ Getting on in life ✅ Investing smartly ✅

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

1 year

I think about this graph of most important issues in the UK over the last ten years from ⁦ @YouGov ⁩ quite a lot.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Short thread on upcoming Scottish Holyrood Elections. Whilst Alba is potentially beneficial to the Nationalist side, @Alliance4Unity damages the Unionist side. I’ll explain why as @georgegalloway and Unionist hard right/left seem to struggling with maths

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Irrespective of your view on Brexit and the PM it’s a pretty impressive piece of statecraft for the PM to bring an EU backed deal to the House in just 90 days. Irrespective of the outcome of the vote, voters will notice that this Gov’t can get stuff done

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Whether you agree or disagree with him, Gareth Southgate articulates a progressive Englishness that is both powerful and moving

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

If there's a Deal which passes I'd expect a trampoline-like bounce for the Tories + the worst environment for the Left to have an Election. Clear cut through of doing Brexit, and a pivot to the left on economics will be an Exocet missile at Labour's Midlands and Northern voters

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Weird it’s taken people 2 years to work this out, when the “original” thesis I put out on this website literally identified the Red Wall this way

Owen Jones

@OwenJones84

3 years

A lot of what's actually going on in British politics right now isn't so much "the Tories are conquering working-class communities in the north and Midlands" as "the Tories are doing very well in communities with high levels of homeownership"

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

7 years

More Scots voted Leave in 2016 (1,018,322) than voted SNP (977,568) in the 2017 Election. Media commentary in Scotland doesn't reflect this.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Fascinating poll out today from @IpsosMORI on Right/Left identification. The poll provides further evidence that Right Wing support looks like a "Nike tick" by age (and Left Wing support the inverse) (1/8)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Small, niche thread on (political) polling and whether we need to start having BAME/ non-white cross breaks as a standard in public polls, inspired by various conversations from @election_data , @MattSingh_ and @sundersays and others... (1/14)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

It’s a source of fascination to me at how white extinction rebellion is.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 months

The next UK election - in terms of vote % and seat counts - is going to be a tough one for the polling industry to nail; new census, new boundaries, 5 years since last elex driving false recall, proportional swing, tactical voting. An absolute perfect storm of potential error.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#7 Young people do not like Brexit. The Conservative party is becoming the party of Brexit. Young People therefore are increasingly turning against the Conservatives. Just 6% of 18-24 and 18% of 25-49 think that No deal is a good outcome for the U.K. (8/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 years

Couple of thoughts on the Croydon, Harrow and Tower Hamlets results. These were all driven by very different circumstances and populations, but one of the underexplored features of recent elections is sharp shifts to the right amongst select Asian populations.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Take a bow @Samfr

Sam Freedman

@Samfr

4 years

Right new predictions for 2020....British politics first: 1. Starmer will win the Labour leadership. The membership is way to the left of where it use to be but doesn't function as a bloc hard left vote and Starmer is popular for his remain stance.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

@epkaufm @HanburyStrategy I don’t have provide anything, but here you go.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Twitter thread coming based on my modelling of the Leave and Remain 2016 vote by postcode (1/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Anyone who grew up in the shadow of a cathedral, and more, will look at those pictures of Notre Dame and shudder. Cathedrals are our link to the past and help us imagine ourselves as participating in an unending chain of human activity with a common thread #NotreDame

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Light bit of weekend reading. Me writing about how I came up with the concept of the ‘red wall’, and how it turned blue via @FT

How the Labour party’s ‘red wall’ turned blue

The UK’s electoral map has changed dramatically — its political economy could do so too

www.ft.com

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

6 years

Interesting map below reminds us that UK attitudes towards race are systemically more progressive than most of Europe and the EU

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Bit of personal news, I’m launching a new polling company @stacksstrat , backed by old colleagues at @Hanburystrategy . Creating a company of statistical nerds has been dream of mine. I’m lucky that my hobby is my job and I’m delighted to be joined by a team of great people

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Important work from @RedfieldWilton on attitudes on tax by age. One of the paradoxes of British politics is that the young have moved sharply to the right on economics and left at the ballot box, and older voters the opposite. How does this happen? Because culture is still king.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Clarkson’s farm is astonishing TV. Wasn’t expecting to be so moved.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

With good news for Democrats coming from Georgia it’s worth musing on the growing visibility of the left’s path to win across the west - patriotic, focussed on issues of economic justice, optimistic, and in many cases, a belief set that tilts towards the civil / actual religious

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

7 years

The changes in party support, by age, 2015 -2017, is simply staggering. The U.K is now a nation totally divided along age lines #GE2017

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

This is no evidence whatsoever for this assertion. Thought the New Statesman would be more alive to fake news aimed squarely at the right after the Scruton debacle.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

I've been mulling on how freedom (civil & political) has across the world become decoupled from prosperity, and what the implications are. I've framed this as the breaking of Fukuyama's Curve™. I'm sure many will disagree with the following thread (1/12)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#6 The Financial Crash has dramatically altered views on capitalism. Past generations had Winter of Discontent/fall of the Berlin wall as their lodestar. This new generation has corrupt banks, tax dodging companies, and soaring CEO pay as their formative political context (7/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Analysing the UK General Election 2019 results at @HanburyStrategy , through the lens of ward level modelling (my 1st iteration below). The complexity of the politics of the West of England+Wales is remarkable once you drill down and map (thank you Aaron) below constituency level

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 years

My thoughts in @thetimes about why our UK politics is so fractious - mainly because all political sides can claim a mixture of cultural / economic alienation. Constant elections, social media and geographic self sorting also hurting unity.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

There are 4 political groupings in England. Trad Labour voters (c2010), Trad Tory voters (c2010), Brexit leaning voters + Remain/Greenish Liberals. In a PR system the parties would take c25% each (liberals maybe less). In a FPTP system we have a receipe for political chaos (1/6)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

I'm not convinced that the political parties understand where "Middle England/Wales" exists. Analysis indicates Ipswich, Sevenoaks, Broxtowe, Wrexham, Newark, Preston, C.Croydon, Basingstoke, Blackley & Broughton + Warrington South are the best seats to understand #EURef (1/7)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

*Logs on to Twitter, scrolls for five minutes, sighs, logs back off*

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 years

Small thread on the Tory leadership contest, and a few polling / non polling observations. The @IpsosUK leader ratings data is some of the best data out there. The difference between the PM and LOTO ratings has correctly predicted the direction of every election since 1979.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#8 Its almost always Tory MPs who stand against progressive issues (assisted dying/same-sex marriage). These are ethical/political propositions disproportionately supported by the young - and in time by the majority of society (9/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#2 The expansion of higher education is dramatically shifted the life outcomes, values, debt levels and worldviews of different generations. Almost the entire difference in propensity to vote by age in The EU Referendum is explained by education levels and qualification (3/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#3 Young people are increasingly being drawn to cities – gutting small towns of a sense of the future+working age pop. Living in urban areas has demonstrable effects on long-term voting patterns, shifting them left. Not creating rural opportunity has political consequences (4/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Day 1 of local election results likely to be dominated by Hartlepool. Days 2+ by national elections in Scotland and Wales. But there��s evidence of the stirrings of a wider Green movement as a better/revived vehicle for progressive politics over the next 20 yrs vs Labour

Britain Elects

@BritainElects

3 years

Reddish South (Stockport) council result: Grn: 48.1% (+41.0) Lab: 34.7% (-23.1) Con: 10.8% (-3.2) Ind: 5.0% (+5.0) LDem: 1.4% (-4.5) No UKIP (-14.0) as prev. Grn GAIN from Lab More:

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

It’s frustrating watching fellow members of the U.K centre right fail to grasp the cultural, historical and political power of Irish America brought up on a diet of Thatcher & Reagan anecdotes. I could count on two hands Tories who even know De Valera was American born

Joe Biden

@JoeBiden

4 years

We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit. Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

That said Labour's manifesto hasn't lit the red touch paper like 2017. Tuition fees was an issue that cut right to the heart of intergenerational fairness. Free train tickets, Wi-Fi and a 4 day week is what you expect if you work at Google, not as Government policy (4/9)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

If Chipping Norton is your sense for where the “border” for northern England is I’d suggest going back to the drawing board

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#4 Growing House prices vs wages ratio has decimated home ownership (driver of voting Tory). You can get a good steer on the long term Tory fortunes 2010-2017 by seat by looking at average house price vs income ratios. The higher the ratio, the worse the Tory performance. (5/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 months

If this Clacton constituency poll is close to correct then reform really are not on 12% nationally

Opros Politics 🇺🇦

@OprosUK

3 months

Westminster Voting Intention (Clacton): CON: 38% (-34) LAB: 30% (+14) REF: 18% (NEW) LDM: 6% (=) via @Survation , 11-12 Jan (Changes with 2019 Election)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

7 years

Richmond one of a small group of Tory seats vulnerable to Remain tactical voting. Graphic below indicates up to c.20-25 could be vulnerable

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

So to be honest Galloway’s horseshoe band of hard right and left irreconcilables is a innumerate Trojan horse for separatism. It’s literally just maths. Alba and @Alliance4Unity aren’t the same thing. Google, a pen, a calculator and 2 hours can prove that.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Thread on the Tory party and Free markets coming up: There are some critical questions that the Conservative party should face up regarding a) the number of voters who believe in Free markets and b) How Free Market supporters will vote next Election (1/9)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

The solution to the issues the party has with younger voters will have to be multi-faceted. A good to start answering this would be to read this @ukonward Report written by @NeilDotObrien , @Will_Tanner + myself (10/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#5 The introduction of Tuition Fees was the turnkey to @LibDems collapse. This helped Cameron on a seat basis in 2015, but it long-term decoupled 25% of the electorate (disproportionately young) from their political anchoring. By 2017 many of them joined @jeremycorbyn (6/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Lots of extraordinary political polling numbers coming from @MattSingh_ and @roger_scully . Parties ⬆️ and ⬇️ double digits. We are currently in the middle of a phase of extreme political volatility. Best not to construct grand and final narratives in this climate (1/n)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Had to triple check to make sure it was true but Westmorland & Lonsdale (Tim Farron's seat) is the only Liberal seat in England and Wales to have been consistently Liberal since 2010. All others have been lost, won, or flipped multiple times since

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

We can see that 200 seat Wessex is highly contested on this axis. The degree of leave dominance across the East coast is utterly remarkable. The red wall is also much more divided then a blanket leave vote, and the eradication of the liberals in West Country explained (2/3)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

There’s something moving about the #USElection where specific groups have moved in the opposite direction to what was expected. Working class men moving Democrat, and LGBT + minorities moving Republican suggests maybe demographics aren’t destiny and maybe people are just people

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Hope to provide similar analysis of Scotland and NI soon - but interesting to note that on a 53/47 leave/remain leave takes c.70% of wards!

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

This Oxbridge offer table (h/t @ProfTimBale ) is doing the rounds re private/state dynamic, but what catches the eye is the dominance of Brighton, Cambridge, Oxford + London- areas stuffed with urban professionals (except Brampton/Huddersfield). Wonder what the policy solution is?

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Corbynomics is popular. YouGov generically polled Labour policies, and they were popular. Being likeable/popular is different though to being credible/possible. Corbynomics has been been partially neutralised by the Tories shifting sharply to the left on economics. (2/9)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

There is huge divergence in U.K national polls at the minute with extrapolated outcomes ranging from a hung parliament with Corbyn as PM to a massive Tory landslide. I don’t think the correct way to read current polling is to average these outcomes. (1/3)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

#1 Any one of these factors would be a problem. Their combination is creating a conveyor belt towards oblivion for the party. Younger people are disproportionately BAME, and older voters white – part of the reason the age curve is dramatic is a direct ethnicity effect (2/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 years

This is increasingly why “BAME” is a meaningless term. It doesn’t describe any common experiences, behaviours or voting patterns. What replaces it is a difficult question. That’s why it’s still in use.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 years

Winning another election shouldn’t really be a consideration for Conservatives at this point. 1/ Keeping the government functioning and doing right by millions of people facing hardship 2/restoring trust in the system 3/ stopping political oblivion.

Will Tanner

@Will_Tanner

2 years

NEW: @ukonward / @JLPartnersPolls polling of 1,034 voters on 21 Oct 2022. Candidate most likely to “restore integrity and honest leadership to British politics”: Rishi 21% Penny 9% Wallace 11% Boris 12% Kemi 3% Suella 1% 1/8

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Con-Lab delta very closely related to leader ratings. Iron law of politics identified by @mattsingh holds. Gap between between net satisfaction of PM and LOO divided by 3 gives expected Government lead over opposition. Public perception of leaders and debates critical (4/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 years

Short 🧵, this graph from @VictimOfMaths shows English Conservatives tend to do better in areas that are “quite” rich, despite realignment speeding up around graduate / non-graduate divide ( @drjennings good here). Centre right parties that forget this run into problems

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Margins mean tiny poll movements could change composition of Gov’t. Huge number of unknowns. What do 4m Tory Remainers do? Labour Leavers? What about Greens? What do the the 5.5m Lib Dem’s voting outside target seats do? Independents? A Plaid vote which is 35% leave?! (10/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

Lib Dems and Labour resemble Romulus and Remus - punching it out with lots of net switching. Almost none of which achieves strategic goal of eroding Tory majority. Remain voters will need signals and steers on how to vote. Public MRP could provide this albeit with noise (2/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

I’m deeply sceptical about the fortunes of the Independent Group. My thoughts for the @spectator recalling political analytics work I’ve done 2014-2017

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

If you want to get a sense of how complicated British politics is, I reckon by next election we will have c.40 different types of "seat histories" in England and Wales 2005-2019 - with only 2/3 rds consistently Tory or Labour (ordered by how likely they could rank by size) (1/3)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Lots of attention on Scottish, Northern Irish / English politics, but something is happening in Wales. The First Minister is fermenting Anti Westminster sentiment that long term increases support for Plaid/Separation but ends in labour decline and on FPTP basis benefits the Right

Britain Elects

@BritainElects

3 years

Welsh parliament voting intention(s): Constituency: LAB: 34% (-4) CON: 26% (-1) PC: 22% (+2) GRN: 6% (+3) REFUK: 5% (+5) LDEM: 4% (+1) List: LAB: 30% (-3) CON: 25% (+1) PC: 23% (+3) ABOLISH: 7% (-) GRN: 5% (+1) REFUK: 4% (+4) LDEM: 4% (-) via @YouGov , 11-14 Jan Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

2 months

Very interested in how Reform UK perform in Blackpool South by election. If there’s another underperformance from them, there’s a strong case to be made that there’s a potential systematic polling error.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

6 years

Modelling party support in London by ward here at @PopulusPolls . Projected huge swathes of red across the capital for @UKLabour

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

11 months

Obscene, tragic and unethical. Never seen a case for the “slippery slope” argument being proven so quickly and clearly

Yuan Yi Zhu

@yuanyi_z

11 months

The vice-president of the Canadian Association of MAID Assessors and Providers now openly admits people have chosen euthanasia because of poverty, after her organization spent years calling anyone who said this a liar. But she says it's okay because it's not illegal per se.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

I see the culture wars are putting an end to Britain’s Cathedral choirs. This statement on diversity - made by the five old white men who lead Sheffield cathedral - is majestic in its banality.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

8 years

Strong evidence of what drove polling miss. Misreading of widening divisions between minorities/grads vs blue-collar whites. Sound familiar?

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 months

The leadership of my home town’s cathedral is just so off piste. Just a slow motion car crash of 1,000 years of history and heritage

Canterbury Cathedral

@CburyCathedral

3 months

Fantastic atmosphere at last night’s Silent Disco! 🎧💃🕺 Thanks to everyone who joined us. We’re looking forward to welcoming everyone this evening! We'll be sharing more pictures later 📷

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

3 years

Watching the superb BBC Brown/Blair documentary prompted some election sleuthing. I had never realised the scale of decline in election turnout in the UK during the 1990s / early 2000s: John Major won more votes in 1997 than Blair did in 2005.

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

5 years

This asymmetric distribution also explains why metropolitan movements can create massive ideological bubbles which fail to penetrate as effectively throughout a country than more rural/populist movements (9/10)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

Firstly, the relationship between economic growth + density could decouple. This matters because cities getting richer and countryside getting poorer is part of the reason behind rise of populism + a globalist ideology amongst city elites which has rotated our politics (2/7)

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James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

4 years

My kind of Conservative

Mitt Romney

@MittRomney

4 years

This is my father, George Romney, participating in a Civil Rights march in the Detroit suburbs during the late 1960s—“Force alone will not eliminate riots,” he said. “We must eliminate the problems from which they stem.”

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