Graham Allison @GrahamTAllison Twitter profile

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

Having returned from a whirlwind tour of 9 intense days of meetings in Beijing, reflecting on my discussion with Xi Jinping:

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

Will India surpass China to become the next superpower? As I recently argued in @ForeignPolicy , four inconvenient truths make this unlikely

Will India Surpass China to Become the Next Superpower?

Four inconvenient truths make this scenario unlikely.

foreignpolicy.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

China Hype. In the current political environment, politicians and commentators alike are competing to demonstrate who can make the most extreme charges against China.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

3 months

But is it? Declaring the US the winner in the global economic growth race by comparing it only with its established, aging G7 counterparts may be like awarding a medal to the American sprinter in the 100-meter Olympic race by excluding world record holder Usain Bolt.

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1 year

1/ The title of a Foreign Affairs article last week announces a favorite storyline among many DC China watchers: “Xi Can’t…” But ask yourself: how many times in the past year – or decade – have you read the headline claim, “Xi Can’t…”

Xi Jinping Can’t Handle an Aging China

An increasingly autocratic system will struggle to halt demographic decline.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

In China for heavy schedule of meetings with Xi’s foreign policy leadership team. Today’s included Wang Yi (China’s Foreign Minister and Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission—essentially holding both the jobs of US SecState Blinken and NSA Jake Sullivan).

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

27 days

Inconvenient Facts about the Chinese Economy.

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1 month

He went on to use an interesting metaphor to describe the US-China relationship: “I am in you, and you are in me” (你中有我，我中有你)

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

1/ Having recently returned from 10 days in China, I agreed to be interviewed by Goldman Sachs’ Global Macro Research team. Here’s what they asked:

US-China Relations: An Interview with Graham Allison | Belfer Center for Science and International...

Graham Allison is interviewed about U.S.-China relations by the Global Macro Research Team for a Goldman Sachs publication.

www.belfercenter.org

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

13 days

1/ Why is TSMC’s attempt to build a semiconductor factory in Arizona falling further and further behind? “TSMC’s debacle in the American desert” from Rest of the World offers clues:

Inside TSMC’s struggle to build a chip factory in the U.S. suburbs

Missed deadlines and tension among Taiwanese and American coworkers are plaguing the chip giant’s Phoenix expansion.

restofworld.org

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

That requires leaders in both countries to identify what Kissinger called a new “strategic concept” that satisfies the contradictory imperatives to simultaneously compete and cooperate.

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@GrahamTAllison

6 months

China’s withdrawal of its pandas from the Washington National Zoo is a textbook case of “dumb” power. In an age where people talk about hard power, soft power, sharp power, we need at least one more bucket: dumb power.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

But if war means suicide for both nations, then the central truth Reagan captured about nations with robust nuclear arsenals remains as true today as it was during the height of the Cold War: “A nuclear war cannot be won and therefore must never be fought.”

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

Will solar be the new oil? In an op-ed in the print edition of the FT today, I note that for the first time in history, global spending on solar energy production will outpace spending on oil production this year: $380 billion on solar compared with $370 billion on oil

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

As @WSJ and other outlets sound the alarm that China’s 7.2% increase in military spending is “another hefty increase” in its decades-long military buildup, it is important to examine the facts.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

There, he said: “The Thucydides Trap is not inevitable, and Planet Earth is vast enough to accommodate the respective development and common prosperity of China and the US.”

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

4 months

Who is winning the global EV race? The answer: China, China, and China. In 2023, China sold over nine million EVs—six times the US. In Q4, China’s EV champion, BYD (which is backed by Warren Buffett among others), overtook Musk’s Tesla to become the #1 global EV automaker.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

22 days

Inconvenient question: who is the major supplier of drones to both Russia and Ukraine in the current war?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

While Xi’s primary objective in meeting with US business leaders (I was included as a ‘representative of the academic and strategic community’) was to emphasize that China is “open for business,” he was also interested in engaging about the broader geopolitical relationship.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

The US and China exist in 21st-century conditions in which each nation’s survival depends on cooperation from the other to address shared, existential challenges (nuclear MAD, climate change, global pandemics, etc.)

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

7 months

Over the past four months, the total of all the territory Ukraine has recovered is 140 square miles. If it continues “gaining ground” at this rate, it will not fully liberate its territory in the 21st century.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

I asked him what he meant by that. For a clip of his answer to the question, see the recording below:

Xi Calls for More People-to-People Exchanges Between China, US

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for more people-to-people exchanges between China and the United States on Wednesday.Xi made the remarks while meeting wi...

www.youtube.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

4 years

Unipolarity is over, and with it the illusion that other nations would simply take their assigned place in a U.S.-led order. That will require accepting that there are spheres of influence—and not all of them are American. See my latest in @ForeignAffairs

The New Spheres of Influence

China and Russia have carved out their own spheres of influence; like it or not, the United States will need to adjust to this reality.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

1/ China Facts: Who has the most competitive automobile market in the world? Who has the most competitive market for EVs in the world?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

27 days

- China’s real GDP (growth minus inflation) is now 20% larger than it was before the COVID pandemic. The US economy has grown by only 8%.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

Across nearly every dimension—tech, trade, industry, military, and global influence—the US and China are destined to be the fiercest competitors history has ever seen.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

27 days

The Peterson Institute’s Nick Lardy’s recent in Foreign Affairs, “China Is Still Rising,” offers a number of inconvenient facts that remind us to follow the numbers instead of the narratives.

China Is Still Rising

Don’t underestimate the world’s second-biggest economy.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

4 months

As I told CGTN last week: I do not believe for a moment that a hot war between the US and China is inevitable.

CGTN

@CGTNOfficial

4 months

Thucydides' Trap, a concept about potential conflicts between emerging and established powers, is often linked to China-U.S. relations. In an interview with Liu Xin, Professor Graham Allison, who coined this term, emphasizes learning from historical mistakes to foster peace.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

A lingering question: Why was the author afraid to identify him or herself?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

3 months

Note: the IMF’s World Economic Outlook also reports that China grew 5.2% in 2023—more than 2x as fast as the US. Could a runner competing in the Olympics claim a gold medal if he had just been lapped by his closest rival?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 years

Biden has an opportunity to hurt Putin’s Russia and help Team USA: the administration should create Scientific Freedom visas to attract superstars from Russia to come to the US and show Putin what free individuals in an open society can create. My latest:

The US can help Putin lose the war — for Russia’s future

President Biden has a rare opportunity to hurt Vladimir Putin’s Russia and help Team USA at the same time. He has already announced a humanitarian initiative to allow 100,000 Ukrainian refugees to …

thehill.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

I was invited to offer a 5-minute comment on the relationship between the US and China.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

While as I’ve written, I believe it is essential to recognize that China is and will be the fiercest rival a ruling power has ever faced, I am also convinced that the current demonization of China confuses more than it clarifies.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

3 months

Last week, I was interviewed by @NYMag about the dangers of demonizing China. As politically profitable as demonizing China now is, it leads individuals to overestimate China’s strengths and to underestimate its vulnerabilities.

The ‘Thucydides’s Trap’ Author on the Risk of China-Bashing

Political scientist Graham Allison thinks Americans both underestimate and overestimate their main competitor.

nymag.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

In my search for avenues by which to escape Thucydides’s Trap, I am finding many insights and clues from both Chinese history and philosophy that has historically had a capacity for embracing contradictions and complexity.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

Good news: Today, Harvard posted the job ad for a new Henry A. Kissinger Professorship of Statecraft and World Order.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

In addition to commending him for what he and President Biden achieved in San Francisco in establishing a solid foundation for a stable, constructive relationship going forward, I raised a question about the metaphor he had used in his discussion with Chuck Schumer last October.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 month

His response captures the essence of the conditions in which the greatest Thucydidean rivalry of all times is playing out.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

27 days

- Despite narratives about weak consumption, Chinese consumption (real per capita) rose 9% last year while incomes rose 6%.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

27 days

- Contrary to the belief that investors have lost all confidence, private investment increased about 10% in 2023 when excluding the real estate sector. For more, Lardy’s article is a good read.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

My China team’s China Hype award for the week goes to the anonymous author of the @politico piece headlined “Xi Goes Full Stalin.” It argues that Xi has now become the new Stalin! Specifically:

China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge

In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies.

www.politico.eu

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

3/ Driving this recurring error: disappointment that China has not followed the path of Japan and Germany, democratized, and taken the place America has assigned it in the international order; despair about what's happening in the US; and hope that China will fail before we do.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

4 months

Inconvenient CHIPS Act Facts Claim: The CHIPS Act will help restore US leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and reduce US reliance on Asia for advanced chips.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 years

Visited Zhongnanhai, headquarters of China’s central government, on my recent trip to Beijing. Productive meetings with officials at the highest levels. As in the US, debate over the diagnosis is over. The question now: how to secure vital interests without stumbling into war.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

When I asked Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father of Singapore, a decade ago about whether India could become the next China, he answered directly: “Do not talk about India and China in the same breath.”

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 years

This Tuesday, join @Benjamin__Rhode and me for an @IISS_org discussion on the Russia–Ukraine war, the US–China rivalry, and Thucydides’s Trap.

The Russia–Ukraine war, the US–China rivalry and Thucydides’s Trap

www.iiss.org

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

Contrary to claims, China is not 10 feet tall; nor is it peaking and on the brink of collapse. To create and sustain a strategy for meeting the China challenge, Americans must understand our competitor as it is—rightly assessing both its strengths and its weaknesses.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

Henry Kissinger was America’s greatest living statesman, Harvard’s most accomplished living graduate, and the model practitioner of statecraft as Applied History.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

In my recent interview with @NewStatesman , I argue American politics is driving towards something that could become a provocation that China could not avoid

Graham Allison: “American politics is driving towards a provocation that China could not avoid”

The academic who coined “Thucydides’s Trap” warns we are sliding into a catastrophic new conflict.

www.newstatesman.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

22 days

In an inconvenient wakeup front-page story, the Wall Street Journal announced : “China’s DJI has become the go-to drone brand for Ukraine.”

How American Drones Failed to Turn the Tide in Ukraine

Drones from American startups have been deemed glitchy and expensive, prompting Ukraine to turn to alternatives from China.

www.wsj.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

4/ In 2017, as Trump became president, Destined for War offered my best judgement that Xi was “the most ambitious, competent, and consequential leader on the global stage today.”

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

But for serious outlets like @politico who are seeking to help readers understand what’s actually happening in the world, where commentators make extreme claims without providing evidence or analysis that supports them, not good.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

3 months

This year’s Munich Security Conference included a session on Applied History titled “The End of the End of History: Rethinking Western Policy Towards Russia," sponsored by the Ax:son Johnson Foundation (one of the major supporters of Applied History).

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

In one line: what we the living owe the dead is to avoid unnecessary wars. Unfortunately, many Americans see Memorial Day as just a holiday to mark the beginning of summer.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

5/ Assessing the performance of international leaders over the past 5 years, that judgement seems correct. Looking ahead to the next 5 years, who has another candidate they’d bet on to displace Xi from this perch?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

2/ Then, ask how many times that claim turned out to be correct.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

6 years

Before Trump takes action in Syria, he should ask: and then what? What will Russia do in response? And at the end of the sequence of actions and reactions, will Americans be safer than before? Bismarck warned against playing chess one move at a time.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

1/ The US vs China—who is growing faster than whom?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 years

Brzezinski warned in 1997 that the greatest long-term threat to U.S. interests would be a “grand coalition” of China and Russia, “united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.” Few heeded his admonition.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

1 year

In a forthcoming essay I wrote celebrating my professor Henry Kissinger, who reaches his 100-year mile marker tomorrow, I thanked him for enlarging our conception of a meaningful life

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

22 days

Among the interesting findings reported by the Journal: “Most small drones from the US startups have failed to perform in combat.” The Ukrainian military added: “Made-in-America drones tend to be expensive, glitchy, and hard to repair.”

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

22 days

At a time when the US Navy also reports China having 200 times more shipbuilding capability than the US, the nagging question is: can the US make anything at scale or at a price point that can compete with China?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

In the social media world, the more extreme the claim, the more clicks it gets. And if clicks were the the metric of interest, this piece would get a passing grade.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

The author claims Xi has “ramped up repression to totalitarian levels.” Compared to what? Xi’s corruption investigators have purged far bigger “tigers” than Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, who aren’t even on the Politburo.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

In fact, China’s 2024 military spending will increase by less (in nominal terms) than every pre-Covid year since Xi took power.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

Second, India’s economy remains much smaller than China’s. At the beginning of the 21st century, China’s GDP was about three times larger than India’s. Today it is around five times larger.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

China’s 2024 military spending will increase by less than the overall government budget (8.6%), less than food and oil expenditures (8.1%), less than science and technology expenditures (10%), and less than debt and interest payments (11.9%).

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

8 months

Enjoyed talking to @theallinpod at their annual summit in LA. A great conversation on China, the history of great powers, and US military spending.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

Third, India has been steadily falling behind in the science and technology race. China graduates nearly 2x as many STEM students and spends 2 percent of its GDP on R&D, while India spends 0.7 percent.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

1/ Why is Israel’s campaign in Gaza failing?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

First, analysts have been wrong about India’s rise in the past. In the 1990s, analysts trumpeted a growing Indian population that would create an “economic miracle.” Yet that never happened. Will this time be different?

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

11 months

Fourth, while China has essentially eliminated abject poverty, more than 10 percent of India’s population of 1.4 billion struggle to survive on incomes below this World Bank threshold of $2.15 a day.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

7 months

The recent @nytimes headline declaring “Ukraine Has Gained Ground” confuses more than it clarifies.

Ukraine Has Gained Ground. But It Has Much Farther to Go

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has breached Russian defenses, but progress has been grueling and slow. Familiar obstacles, fresh troops and worsening weather lie ahead.

www.nytimes.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

3 months

The IMF issued today its World Economic Outlook reviewing what happened last year and previewing the year to come. It notes that the US grew at 2.5% in 2023–outpacing all other G7 economies.

World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024: Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to...

Global growth is projected to stay at 3.1 percent in 2024 and rise to 3.2 percent in 2025. Elevated central bank rates to fight inflation and a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weigh on...

www.imf.org

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

China’s 7.2% increase is nominal. If China hits its real GDP target of 5% and CPI target of 3%, its military spending as a percent of GDP will shrink in 2024.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

The author claims Xi has conducted a “Stalin-like purge” while the world was “distracted by war in the Middle East and Ukraine.” The fact is: every official purged while we were “distracted” disappeared this past summer—months before war in the Middle East began.

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Graham Allison

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6 years

My article on "The Myth of the Liberal Order" is out in the new issue of @ForeignAffairs . I hope you'll give it a read. Look forward to what I'm sure will be a lively debate!

The Myth of the Liberal Order

Rather than seeking to return to an imagined past in which the United States molded the world in its image, Washington should limit its efforts to ensuring sufficient order abroad and concentrate on...

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

The author speculates Li Keqiang was assassinated—but provides zero evidence to support the claim.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

5 months

The author asserts purged officials were members of Xi’s “inner ring.” But neither Qin, Li, nor the PLA Rocket Force members purged by Xi had worked closely with him for more than a decade—unlike the actual members of Xi’s “inner ring” on the Politburo Standing Committee.

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Graham Allison

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2 months

1/ Inconvenient fact: US is NOT the fastest growing economy in the world.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 years

As @ericschmidt and I write in today’s @wsj , America can’t afford to lose the chip competition. Between 1990 and 2020 China built 32 semiconductor megafactories compared with 24 in the rest of the world. None were built in the US.

Opinion | Semiconductor Dependency Imperils American Security

The U.S. Innovation and Competition Act is only the first step in preventing Chinese dominance.

www.wsj.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

7 months

Readers of Russia Matters’ weekly Report Card on the war will know that since Ukraine launched its counteroffensive on June 4, in half of the weeks Ukraine has lost more territory than it gained.

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Graham Allison

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1 month

That nuance could offer conceptual guidance for a relationship that is destined simultaneously to be the fiercest rivalry of all times, but also a thick partnership in a world in which each rival’s survival requires significant cooperation with the other.

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1 month

As Xi said to Chuck Schumer’s delegation in October, “Thucydides’s Trap is not inevitable. Planet Earth is vast enough to accommodate the respective development and common prosperity of both China and the US…China and the US should act with a sense of responsibility to history.”

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Graham Allison

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10 months

@elonmusk You have been one of the clearest-eyed realists in recognizing that China’s rise is a fact; that, in your words, China will “be great at anything it puts its mind to;” and that decoupling from a country that is the second backbone of the global economy is a fantasy.

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5 years

Happy 96th birthday to America’s greatest living statesman. When we met fifty years ago, I wouldn’t have predicted Henry would still be my professor five decades later. But that’s a prediction I’m glad to have got wrong.

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5 years

Another productive meeting with Vice President Wang Qishan of China on my recent visit to Beijing. Enjoyed insightful conversation about the US-China relationship and Thucydides’s Trap.

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1 year

Lee Kuan Yew, the world’s greatest China watcher, made prescient predictions about China’s inexorable rise. After a decade of Xi, he’s been proven right. See my interview with Michael Morell on Xi’s China and the complexities of coexistence in a MAD world.

National security analyst Graham Allison on evolution of U.S.-China relations — "Intelligence...

Allison talks with host Michael Morell about Xi's plan for China, the negative consequences of bellicose rhetoric and how Taiwan could potentially trigger a war between the U.S. and China.

www.cbsnews.com

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Graham Allison

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11 months

Will this time be different? Or was Lee right, and will India always be “the county of the future?” Read my piece for more details

Will India Surpass China to Become the Next Superpower?

Four inconvenient truths make this scenario unlikely.

foreignpolicy.com

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@GrahamTAllison

1 year

In my latest article for @ForeignPolicy , I share the @BelferCenter Russia-Ukraine Task Force's Report Card on the war 🧵

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3 months

This has provided fodder for a number of headlines like the one in Axios today declaring that the US is “winning the world economic war.”

U.S. winning world economic war

America's economic outperformance is rooted in its distinctive structural strengths, policy choices, and some luck.

www.axios.com

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Graham Allison

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2 months

4/ But this wouldn’t even be China’s cheapest popular model. The Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, a joint venture between GM and Chinese automakers, goes for only $5,000 and still seats four. It outsells the Tesla 3 ($36,000) in China. Wuling Hongguang Mini EV: $5,000

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Graham Allison

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20 days

Three huzzahs for Stephen Kotkin’s illuminating articulation of five possible Russian futures: Russia as France, Russia retrenched, Russia as a Chinese vassal, Russia as a North Korea-like pariah, and Russia in chaos.

The Five Futures of Russia

And how America can prepare for whatever comes next.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

6 months

In “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap,” I note that leaders don’t have to be interested in war for war to entangle them.

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Graham Allison

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4 months

As the prospect that in 2025, the US will be led not by President Biden but by his predecessor looms larger, how is this impacting other nations’ choices in dealing with the US today? That is the question I address in my recent Foreign Affairs article.

Trump Is Already Reshaping Geopolitics

U.S. allies and adversaries are responding to the chance of his return.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Graham Allison

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2 months

8/ Therefore, what? Given the role of automobile companies in Europe, especially in Germany, and of UAW automakers in the US, expect “car wars” ahead.

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22 days

“Nearly 300 US-based drone technology companies have raised a total of about 2.5 billion in venture capital funding in the past two years.” And with how much hype and news stories in the press?

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@GrahamTAllison

1 month

Below is MFA’s summary of Wang Yi’s opening remarks. After that, we settled down for almost an hour private, candid, off-the-record conversation about the ways in which China is seriously seeking to escape Thucydides’s Trap.

Top Chinese diplomat meets Harvard professor Allison

english.news.cn

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 months

2/ The answer is China and China. China sold 30 million autos domestically last year. In contrast, the US sold only half as many—15.5 million. China also overtook Japan to become the world’s largest auto exporter.

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Graham Allison

@GrahamTAllison

2 years

As @ericschmidt and I wrote in @wsj , America’s average 5G mobile internet speed is 75 megabits per second--while China’s is 300. The US also trails China in 5G-related services. It's time to make these technologies of the future a priority.

Opinion | China’s 5G Soars Over America’s

In some U.S. cities, it’s slower than the old 4G system. Washington should make it a priority.

www.wsj.com

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