Gaeten Dugas @GaetenD Twitter profile

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

5 months

Here were my GOP primary predictions from 6 months ago. Pretty spot on except for Tim Scott.

Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

GOP: Trump - overwhelming favorite. Underpriced at $0.57 DeSantis - he’s done for. Vivek - too short, too Hindu, and too inexperienced. Plus lack of support for Ukraine hurts him. Overpriced @ $0.14 Pence, Christie, Asa, Elder, Hurd - No chance Late entrants - I doubt we get one

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@MuellerSheWrote

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

@joncoopertweets If Texas is having record cold temps, then Ted Cruz because it means I would be going someplace nice.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

@MicaSoellnerDC I think that’s a great sign. Just not for Jordan.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

@Santos4Congress As somebody betting against Trump winning in 2024, this tweet is the best news I’ve seen in a while.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

@chrislhayes We all know about the bull in the car by now.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

Imagine going from almost beating Gaetz' ass on the House floor to caving completely to his demands.

Mike Rogers

@RepMikeRogersAL

8 months

. @Jim_Jordan and I have had two cordial, thoughtful, and productive conversations over the past two days. We agreed on the need for Congress to pass a strong NDAA, appropriations to fund our government's vital functions, and other important legislation like the Farm Bill. (1/3)

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

@Santos4Congress @Starbucks Record it as $199.99.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 months

@bayneframework Wait, you’re still running with this gimmick after being exposed as a fraud to millions? My advice: shut it down entirely. Come up with something new and start over. You’re welcome.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

@Santos4Congress @MittRomney And you will never complete your first term.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Congrats to all of the bettors who nailed this one! (I was on No)

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

@RichardHanania Or maybe they think kids should just enjoy their childhood and focus on school instead? Plus kids are exploited pretty easily. It shows a pretty wild lack of imagination that the only conclusion you could come up with was “contempt for manual labor jobs.”

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

@mattyglesias I still think the best protest music of the past several decades is Rage Against the Machine, with their powerful messages against the best economic period of my lifetime and years of peace.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

@umichvoter I’ve never seen a bingo card with 25 free spaces before.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

@AlecStapp @Rule3O3 This technology really turned things around.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

@realChrisBrunet @SSGamblers @NathanJRobinson I mean sure they would think it’s an insult but how many would consider it a top issue and worthy of being the central issue for a campaign vs the economy, health care, immigration, crime, etc?

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

@ettingermentum This is why this site can’t die.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@umichvoter This is also Bernie Porn.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

Now that you have all had time to mourn, Dianne Feinstein not resigning in 2023 was my biggest win ever, with 34k shares at an average of $0.41, most purchased when she was out with shingles. Almost $20k in profit!

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

A day after my biggest win ever, I notched my second biggest win ever. This was one where I trusted my gut in spite of it disagreeing with market prices. I just kept depositing and buying and buying.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

@ettingermentum Step 1: lie about knowing the hostages Step 2: ?????? Step 3: profit!

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

I’d like to apologize to my friends, family, and followers. I fell short of my values when i jerked off in the middle of a full theater for a showing of Minions: the Rise of Gru. I promise to do better.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@NateSilver538 Pricing on this one has been driven heavily by a single account that has bet over $15k that there will not be an outage. They have more than twice the number of No shares as every other bettor combined.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 months

People on Kalshi are making BANK this month. I'm up a respectable $4,200 and that's only good for 10th place on the leaderboard and 20th place overall.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

I asked him for political predictions but he just spewed a bunch of right wing conspiracies.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

@Noahpinion I built this last week.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@TheRickWilson That's valuable time that could be spent trolling people on Twitter instead.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

4 months

The GOP needs a generational talent to win in NY-03. They had that in @MrSantosNY and threw it all away without giving him his due process.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

7 months

One of life’s mysteries: this green turtle is dumb as shit. It just walks into a hole to its death, yet it’s a full grown turtle. Clearly it had lived a full turtle life to that point. But how did it live so long while being so fucking stupid?

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

3 months

For a long time, my two complaints about Kalshi were: 1. Low volumes 2. Not very fun Both have been improved dramatically. Most markets I like are seeing a lot of volume and with all the pop culture they have been adding, the site is now a lot of fun. Check it out if you haven't.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@jayblackisfunny @atrupar Herschel Walker indirectly won several Super Bowls for the Dallas Cowboys.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

I'm back. What did I miss? Nothing? @SSGamblers @VanillaVICE @keendawg @obamoracle @pjchougule @diese_Schwartz @AIBetsPredictit

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Hell yes. This is the @PolymarketHQ that I know and love.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

Congrats to all of the bettors in the superconductor @Polymarket who rooted against progress. Enjoy your money, you cynical sons of bitches.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

3 months

Promise made ✅ Promise kept ✅

Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

7 months

@deanbphillips @DrewSav Same! Have earned my vote.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

All prediction market money withdrawn ✅ Trip to Cancun booked ✅ Trip to Paris booked ✅

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

I could get used to this. Thanks prediction markets!

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

With the solid election for Democrats, school administrators everywhere can breathe a sigh of relief and put the litter boxes out for their students again.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

Brutal. Time announced the short list of candidates and Zelensky was listed as one of them and became the overwhelming favorite, only to have “Zelensky and the spirit of Ukraine” win when the rules state it has to be exclusively Zelensky for yes.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

@AdamKinzinger Unfortunately the modern GOP is known for many things, but courage is not among them.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

I don't even watch sports. Just @PolymarketHQ charts.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@NickAdamsinUSA

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

@BeschlossDC Not a crook

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

My updated 2024 electoral map.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

A lot of the time, prediction markets are hard. And sometimes, somebody bonds 1,000 shares at $0.97 that Taylor Swift won't have the #1 song even though she has a movie coming out that week.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

With @PredictIt alive and well for 2024 DNOM, here is a useful diagram for you of plausible outcomes. Note that RFK doesn't enter the picture at all here.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 month

With the month coming to an end, I’ll review my Kalshi performance. On 4/1, I withdrew my account balance to $5k. Since then, I’ve quadrupled it. The winnings came from about half Rotten Tomatoes (which is skill), 40% financials (lots of luck), and 10% other random stuff.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

Thanks to @ZoltarSSG for closing our bet and to Katie Hobbs for stealing the election and making it all possible.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 months

This wasn't my best Kalshi Rotten Tomatoes market performance, but considering my initial predictions were way way off (I predicted 60-70%), I'm very happy with it. Updated totals: Ghostbusters: $2,482 Godzilla: -$11 First Omen: $144 Civil War: $3,343 Abigail: $676 Total: $6,634

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

4 months

@DeepDishEnjoyer The working class degen

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

I've been a @BankofAmerica customer for 21 years and have a $300k mortgage with them, several hundred thousand dollars on deposit and put over $100k on their credit cards each year and they just lost me as a customer because they refuse to refund a $681 fraudulent charge. Avoid!

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Best market pic ever?

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

You know the phrase "better lucky than good?" I had almost $5,000 bet that there wouldn't be a Speaker of the House elected by end of day on 1/6.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

@atrupar

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

Updated campaign slogans: DeSantis - We will murder Mexicans Scott - I have a girlfriend who goes to another school. Haley - Biden will die soon Vivek - My opponent is the greatest person to ever live

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

7 months

@AndrewSolender That’s disappointing. The original was an all timer.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

Market ideas: 1. Trump skips all 2023 debates 2. 2nd in IA caucus 3. 2nd in delegates before Super Tuesday 4. DeSantis drops before IA 5. DeSantis drops before Super Tuesday 6. DeSantis wins 0 counties 7. Trump win all states 8. GOP VP pick 9. No Labels candidate on ballot in IA

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

Current side bets: 1. $1k to win $1k if Dems win Senate ( @OldBullTV ) 2. $580 to win $420 if Katie Hobbs wins ( @ZoltarSSG ) 3. $600 to win $400 if Biden runs again ( @Domahhhh ) 4. $2.5k to win $2.5k if a Dem wins in 2024 ( @AIBetsPredictit )

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

I bet my $2,500 to @AIBetsPredictit 's $2,500 that the Democratic candidate wins the presidency in 2024.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 days

Furiosa was radically different from any Kalshi RT market before it, and from every movie in my historic dataset so I got BTFO. Oh well, gotta pick myself up, dust myself off, and move on to the next one: Furiosa: -$5,918 Running Total in RT markets: $15,437 Next up: Ezra

Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

18 days

A week after losing money on Apes, I crushed it this week on IF (Imaginary Friends). I won more this week than all of the other RT markets combined and won in every single bracket. Next up: Furiosa! IF: +$11,075 Running total: $21,355

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

@RichardHanania That’s what we do as a society. Families are allowed to do what they want but within certain limits. You may disagree with those limits, but it’s disingenuous to argue that because you disagree that the only reason people would support them is disdain for manual labor.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

I always thought that political gambling was a male-dominated hobby, but lately I’ve been getting a lot of likes and retweets from gorgeous women with their own websites, so maybe the hobby is expanding its audience.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

Story time with Gaeten: for about a year, I've been hosting an almost nightly cash poker game (DM for details.) To reduce money transfer activity, I allow players to keep a balance. When a balance goes above $1k, I pay it out. When it goes below -$500, I request a deposit. 1/x

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

For rapid weight loss and a completely messed up sleep schedule, I highly recommend catching norovirus.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

29 days

I love Kalshi and Polymarket and American Civics Exhange, but PI will always have a special place in my heart. Where else would Tulsi Gabbard be priced above Marco Rubio?

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

11 months

GOP: Trump - overwhelming favorite. Underpriced at $0.57 DeSantis - he’s done for. Vivek - too short, too Hindu, and too inexperienced. Plus lack of support for Ukraine hurts him. Overpriced @ $0.14 Pence, Christie, Asa, Elder, Hurd - No chance Late entrants - I doubt we get one

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Former SSG guest hits it big

Summers

@SummersThings

1 year

Avraham "Avi" Eisenberg @avi_eisen was arrested yesterday in Puerto Rico and charged with market manipulation offenses.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

14 days

@mattyglesias Calling the cuisine the worst now is indefensible.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

I'll go on record to say that SSG should not give a platform to the racist Richard Hanania. There are enough interesting guests that aren't racists. And it's not like his arguments are interesting enough to make up for the fact that he is extremely racist. It's mostly trolling.

Star Spangled Gamblers

@SSGamblers

8 months

“Just from my experience at Manifest, seems like the people who like me outnumber the people who don’t.” — @richardhanania @manifoldmarkets

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

I arrived in DC around 7 pm tonight. Soon after PredictIt posted two new markets. I don’t want to say I’m responsible, but I also don’t want to say I’m not responsible.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

God I'll miss @PredictIt . Where else will market prices get driven up by $0.20 because people confuse the quorum call for the actual vote - especially when everyone voted present. I hope some of you got cheap McCarthy Nos.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

@NostalgiaFolder In Canada you still can shop there. I took my kids there last weekend in Thunder Bay.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

4 months

You can tell when @pjchougule is really confident about a position when he buys 3 times the shares he typically does.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

While I normally don't provide consulting services for free, in this case I will happily provide Jim Jordan with this simple linear model of expected votes by round.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

I bet my $420 to win $580 from @Domahhhh if Trump skips the first debate. I think the Bret Baier interview gives Trump yet another reason to skip the debate, which he had openly discussed the possibility of skipping already.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

3 months

Four years ago, the Super Tuesday map on Predict It showed Bernie favored in almost every state. Betting on Biden led to my most profitable day of the cycle outside of Election Day itself. This year Poly opened markets for every state and the most competitive one is $0.88. SMDH.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

For VP, I bought No in everyone except: 1. Kristi Noem (bought Yes) 2. Tim Scott 3. Byron Donalds 4. Elise Stefanik 5. Glenn Youngkin 6. Henry McMaster 7. Kim Reynolds I think 1 and 2 are the mostly likely picks. 3-6 could pump at some point. 7 is in case DeSantis bounces back.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

With DiFi’s death, Santos not resigning, and markets pricing in a 0% chance of cuts this year, I can close the books on these. I got 7/8 right with the only miss being on $0.25 shares. I netted about $50k on these. Pretty good!

Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Things I need to happen: 1. No more banks fail in May 2. Feinstein doesn’t resign 3. X date is pushed out past June 4. Julie Su isn’t confirmed 5. Santos doesn’t resign before September 6. Trump skips the 1st debate 7. Mayorkas isn’t impeached 8. Fed doesn’t cut this year

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

4 months

I bet my $9,600 to win $400 from @AbrahamKurland on the off chance that Michelle Obama is not the Democratic nominee for president on election day.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

Alex Keeney (fka Keendawg 🐶🇺🇸)

@keendawg

2 years

I’m hoping this will encourage the degen community to support politicians and causes that favor limited government. Brandon will come for you!

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

Your reminder that Twitter and the real world are two very separate things.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

My dad turned 70 this weekend. He worked at Burlington Northern railroad his entire career so we went to Boone, IA to a place called Rail Explorers. It was pretty spectacular with the early fall colors.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

Good morning, Washington, D.C. One of the pillars of political degeneracy is that, if you are able, at least once in your lifetime you must make a pilgrimage to D.C.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Yesterday I tweeted about closing all of my Bank of America accounts and today their stock dropped 6%. Now I know that correlation isn’t causation, but in this case it probably is.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

I bet $20,000 to win $2,222 if Biden doesn't sign a law banning any type of semi-automatic weapon by the end of the year. The bet was made on @OldBullTV 's American Civics Exchange found here:

ACE otc

Over-the-counter political swaps from American Civics Exchange

otc.amciv.com

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

21 days

A fun new feature on the Kalshi app is that at the bottom of each market, you can see how you stack up against other inferior traders like @ZubbyBadger in the same category.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

This is mostly on me for not enforcing the -$500 rule more strictly, but when you shoot the shit with someone for a couple of hours almost every day for a year, you don't expect them to screw you over like this. Maybe Brandi was right this entire time. 4/4

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Things I need to happen: 1. No more banks fail in May 2. Feinstein doesn’t resign 3. X date is pushed out past June 4. Julie Su isn’t confirmed 5. Santos doesn’t resign before September 6. Trump skips the 1st debate 7. Mayorkas isn’t impeached 8. Fed doesn’t cut this year

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

I accidentally bought two extra Taylor Swift concert tickets. Oh well, it's way more comfortable sitting at a concert with empty seats on both sides of me than it is sitting shoulder to shoulder with strangers.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

So I followed this @ElectionLegal guy and now my timeline is all Perry all the time.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

1 year

Senator Moran screwing me out of $1,200 on the Cardona confirmation vote is now a national story.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

@SpecialPuppy1

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

29 days

Worst case scenario, it's Tim Scott and I win $0.01.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

10 months

I took a two-week road trip vacation with the family and during it I made more on @Kalshi S&P 500 markets, Kalshi rebates, poker, @amcivtwit , and side bets than I spent on the vacation.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

8 months

@elwasson Here is a simple model to help him make the decision.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

9 months

Imagine not being up 30% three days into your return to @PredictIt .

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

18 days

A week after losing money on Apes, I crushed it this week on IF (Imaginary Friends). I won more this week than all of the other RT markets combined and won in every single bracket. Next up: Furiosa! IF: +$11,075 Running total: $21,355

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

2 years

@ZubbyBadger @SSGamblers @rudnicknoah There's just no way to account for a late-coming enthusiasm surge like the Dems experienced in Vermont. Blindsided all of us.

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Gaeten Dugas

@GaetenD

6 months

In case you missed it, George Santos with a shout out to the Cat Clan and some words of wisdom for political gamblers.

George Santos for Cat Clan

From Gaeten. Connect with your favorite stars.

v.cameo.com

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