The potential for increased weather disasters coming with climate change make the earthquake problem look small. My music on the data of the changing climate: In Nomine Terra Calens: In the name of a warming Earth via
@YouTube
Yes, an earthquake. A M5.5 at the very southern end of the 2019 Ridgecrest aftershock zone. This is a large late aftershock - do you remember that I said these are common?
The sequence is decaying, and the decay rate is on the high side of average. So the probabilities of more aftershocks are dropping. In the next week, M4s are still certain, a couple of M5s are likely, but larger quakes are looking more improbable.
Updated Aftershock Forecast (7:45 PDT, 7/6/2019): One more aftershock forecast update from the
@USGS
tonight (note the dropping of the probabilities) for the
#RidgecrestEarthquake
:
Yes, we estimate that there's about a 1 in 10 chance that Searles Valley will see another M7. That is a 9 in 10 chance that tonight's M7.1 was the largest.
27 years since the Northridge earthquake. Shaken awake at 4:30, I jumped up to go to work. My 7 yr old panicked - he had learned with the Landers quake that Mommy could be at work for days. So I took him with me & he mapped cracks in the office walls. Now he's in nuclear physics
Thursday 3/19: US Covid19 cases at 10,000
Tuesday 3/24: US cases at 53,000
Doubling every 2 days. If this continues, we hit 1 million next week.
But in California, cases increased from 910 to 2,450, doubling every 5 days. Maybe social distancing is slowing the virus down
The Idaho quake is not Yellowstone. It is over 200 miles away. Eruptions only happen when the magma moves from a chamber to the surface - and the small shaking from a quake that far away doesn't suddenly set all the magma moving.
Like
#DrBiden
, I learned that sometimes you need to add that "Dr.". In the 1980s, I had to dress in shorts and T-shirt to show I was a geologist. Nice clothes at Caltech meant you were a secretary.
Fifty years ago I watched the launch with my aerospace engineer dad who had worked on part of the lunar module. He had taken me to see the spacecraft before it was sent to Florida. I became a scientist because of Apollo - and my dad.
My son is getting his PhD in climate science and we compared our fields. Earthquakes become less frightening as you learn more about them. Climate change becomes more frightening as you learn more. What is coming scares me.
The M4.0 that just happened was under Lennox, CA, near Inglewood. Very deep at 20 km, so everyone is at least 20 km away. Would have been felt by most people awake in LA. Movement was thrust, probably not on any mapped fault
Still waiting for the "moment magnitude" (most accurate) for tonight's earthquake in Carson. Current estimate is M4.4. Location is just north of the 1933 Long Beach zone.
In the 2000s, I joined the CA Seismic Safety Commission. Using the Dr. meant quicker appointments with the legislators.
In the 2010s, that Dr. led to policy makers willing to listen to me and work together for change.
#DrBiden
, I and every other PhD deserve to use our titles.
#AutoEQ
A magnitude 5.0 (MI)
#earthquake
has occurred 4 mi SE of Ojai, CA at 14:41 PDT Aug 20, 2023 [2023-08-20 21:41 UTC].
#SCSN
has not yet confirmed this event. For more info visit
The M7.7 Jamaican quake produced sideways motion on the fault, so the tsunami risk is low. (Seafloor should move up to make tsunami.) But if I'm ever at the beach and feel strong shaking, I move to high ground. Downside is I lose a day at the beach. The upside could be my life.
Disasters break systems where they are already weak. Weak water pipes break in an earthquake. The pandemic is breaking our human system of American society where it was already failing
Conquer your fear of earthquakes by making your home secure. Afraid of the ceiling fan? Get someone to wire it into the ceiling. Afraid of your house getting damaged? Get a foundation specialist to recommend strengthening. Empower yourself.
@PauleyP
The M4.5 quake at 10:33 pm was in the East Bay at 14 km depth. Because any quake can be a foreshock, there’s a slight increase in the chance of a bigger quake for the next few days, at the same location near the Calaveras fault
Science is a process for understanding reality. To say ‘The science should not stand in the way of this’ is to say that "reality should not stand in the way". Unfortunately, reality doesn't care if you believe in it or not.
I just heard another of my mentors has been lost to Covid. Losing our elders to Covid is knowledge that will not be shared, advice that will not be given and love that will never again be bestowed.
Epidemiologists have told us how to slow the spread. Why can't we listen?
A day or 2 after every big earthquake of my career, we hear rumors that an even bigger earthquake is going to happen, but we are denying it to avoid a panic. This rumor is no more true now than it was after Northridge, Landers or Hector Mine.
All of the quakes in Puerto Rico since Dec. 29 can be considered 1 earthquake sequence. Sequences come in different sizes and this is clearly an active one. More M5s are likely another M6 possible. It takes a while for a region to settle down after quakes have stressed it.
The M4.4 that just occurred in SoCal is near Lytle Creek in Cajon Pass, where the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults come together. In 1970, there was a M5.2 with a M4.0 foreshock in close to the same location
In the 1990s, all the Caltech/USGS seismologists were on TV explaining earthquakes. The women were called the "earthquake ladies". The men were called seismologists. I started using the Dr. to remind the reporters that women could be scientists too.
Congratulations to Dr. Fauci for receiving Federal Employee of the Year. His selfless science in the public service is the ideal for which many of who have been in the federal government have worked.
The swarm happening now south of the Salton Sea, near Westmoreland is over 30 km south of the end of the San Andreas. It is in the Brawley seismic zone, a common source of swarms. So far largest is M4.4. Too far from the San Andreas to change the probability of a quake on it.
Parts of SoCal have power outages and wildfires. Imagine all of SoCal without power and with fires, disrupt the water supply, add aftershocks and you're starting to imagine what comes after the big San Andreas earthquake.
#ShakeOut
2019 is a time to think about how to prepare
We’re having a Salton Sea swarm. It’s the fourth time since 2001. This is in the Brawley Seismic Zone about 12 km south of the end of the San Andreas fault
Hmm. This is missing an important part of the quote. I'm certain the probability of a big San Andreas event is 100% IF YOU GIVE ME ENOUGH TIME. In other words, plate tectonics isn't stopping. But it's possible the big one is still 100 years away.
The M6.9 in Indonesia has no impact on California. That size quake happens on average every few weeks. One quake triggers others nearby but at distances more than ~3x the length of the fault, we see no signal. A M6.9 affects about 60 miles out.
The
#Ridgecrest
earthquake is having a robust aftershock sequence. There have been 6 M4+ events and ~30 M3+ in the first 90 minutes. That means there will be plenty more aftershocks today.
In just 2.5hr Westmoreland swarm has had 45 quakes of M≥3.0. One of the largest swarms we have had in the Imperial Valley - and it is historically the most active swarms in SoCal.
The aftershocks to the
#SearlesValley
earthquake show that two faults are involved. One strikes northwest and the other northeast. You can see the aftershocks at
People have been asking about the "earthquake" in LA around 9:20 this morning. Many people report feeling it but the seismograms clearly show the earth was not moving, only the air. So it was a sonic boom.
If the daily probability of the Big One was 50/50, then the chance it would happen in the next week would be >99%. Real probability is about 2% per yer, or 1/20,000 each day. Your change of being in a car accident today is ~1/7,000. I still wear my seat belt every day.
None of the earthquakes that have been happening in the Imperial Valley are anywhere near the San Andreas fault. They are in the Brawley Seismic Zone - a network of small faults that connect the San Andreas and Imperial faults. Historically largest Brawley event was M5.8
You can answer your own question. Look at this Twitter account. Look at how often it has predicted a big quake in California in the last 2 years. None of them have happened. Why should they suddenly be right now?
A M6.5 earthquake just happened in Idaho this evening, northeast of Boise.
@USGS
website is not showing aftershocks yet, but you should expect them. The largest aftershock to the average M6.5 is M5.3. Half have aftershocks even bigger than this
(1 of 2)Why you should not expect me to get up in the middle of the night for a M3+ quake:
1. A M3+ happens in SoCal a few times per week. I sleep 8 hr/day so I'd be disrupting my sleep ~1/wk
2. There's nothing interesting about another M3. They happen every week.
We are all dealing with the impact of the Corona virus and I though I’d share how, as a scientist, I think about the risk and my actions in response. First, I try to stay with the data. As data comes in, answers will change. That’s good science. 1/5
This quake is M4.2 2 miles SW of San Bernardino. Location is pretty deep (15 km) very close to the San Jacinto fault. That part of the fault is generally locked - it had a M7 in the 19th century. We often see small quakes like this below locked segments.
I am frustrated at the way we all jump to the conclusion that the problems in Turkey are all their mistakes and aren't willing to looking at the shortcomings we all share.
At noon on 1/17/1994, I said in a press conference that we would probably have a M5 aftershock that day - just because the rate of aftershocks was that high. When a M5.6 happened at 3:33pm, some thought I had predicted the event. I also predict it rains in Kauai every day
Repeat time. Quakes make other quakes more likely, but only nearby. Today's M4.9 fault is ~2 miles across, so it can affect quakes within ~5 miles. The only faults nearby are small. In other words, there is no scientific reason to predict a big quake in another location today
This Russian quake is not the type that usually produces a tsunami. It is deeper and smaller than the quakes that have made big trans-Pacific tsunamis.
M7.6 earthquake near the Kuril Islands appears to be a deep (~50 km) compressional bending event in the outer rise, where the subducting slab bends before it dives into the mantle, which reduces the likelihood of a significant tsunami
Probability of being a foreshock dies off just like aftershocks do. One hour after the 1st quake, the chance is down from 5% to 4%. By tomorrow evening, it will be below 1%
With a tsunami advisory in effect, some reminders about what that means:
1. An advisory means expect waves of 1-3 feet, so a short term increase in sea level of 1-3 ft. If you are more than 3 feet above sea level it will not affect you. This is only an issue near the beach
[1/2]
A M7.0 quake occurred near Acapulco tonight. The location and focal mechanism are consistent with being part of the plate boundary where the Cocos plate is goin under the North American plate. M7 is smaller than many subduction zones, but common in the Mexico subduction zone
Happy Mother's Day to the young professional mothers trying to balance everything. From a few decades experience, I say choose your time wisely. You need time to:
-help your children grow
-further your career
-maintain your mental health.
Choose wisely. You only get 2 of the 3
Most foreshocks are very close (a few km) to their mainshock, so we think there is some increase in risk when quakes happen within 10 km of the San Andreas. 1 km away would be much riskier than 10. Today's quakes are ~12 km away. I am not cutting my vacation short.
In Apollo, we came together, invested our taxes, supported innovation, achieved our goals & were so proud of the result. We must do all this to create the carbon neutral energy system we need to survive climate change. Whichever nations pull it off will lead the 21st century
No one ever said the vaccines were 100% effective. The vaccine reduces your chance of catching COVID if exposed. Wearing a mask reduces your chance of being exposed. Basic probability statistics says doing both makes you even safer.
The M4.3 at 4:30 has now been followed by 2 aftershocks above M3. The most recent is M3.8. Also ~50 other aftershocks so far. Episode 6 of my podcast is “What does it mean when you have a lot of earthquakes?”
Tonight's quake more scientifically interesting. M4.6 north of Barstow, ~halfway between 2019 Ridgecrest and 1992 Landers faults. 1947 M6.5 Manix quake was ~30 miles east of tonight's quake. Occurred on an unmapped thrust fault. Only Barstow seems to care
The current California atmospheric river (AR) storm is not an ARkStorm.
ARs are a type of storm that bring in much of the rain in California. ARkStorm is AR 1000(k), the very rare AR that lasts for so long that it overwhelms our flood control capacity. Learn more in thread
The New Years Day M7.5 in Japan caused strong shaking for many people, but because of strong, enforced building codes in Japan, the damage is much less than it could have been. The people on the Noto peninsula will have been hit the hardest. This thread explains more
.
@Caltech
operates the Mount Wilson seismic station. It has recorded all the important California earthquakes for 100 years. The
#Bobcat
fire threatens to destroy it today.
Although tonight's quake is in the same location as 1987 Whittier Narrows, it is not considered an aftershock because the aftershocks died off completely in less than 2 years. Mor about aftershocks and other facts of earthquake clustering in my podcast:
I'll repeat that this is still a normal aftershock sequence.
Little clusters of M3s = normal.
Gradual expansion of the zone is normal.
Each aftershock is relieving stress in some places and redistributing it to others. It might grow a few more miles - or not.
Random is normal
For conspiracy theorists and numerologists out there, June 28 has had more significant California quakes than any other date: 1966 Parkfield M6.0, 1991 Sierra Madre M5.8, and 1992 M7.3 Landers.
Why Twitter is a difficult place to do science education:
1. Science should include WHY we know something to be true. That takes more than 280 characters.
2. Twitter rewards being popular. That is not the same as being true. Science is about what's true.
Today’s quake are garden variety California quakes. In an area with lots of faults and both the 1994 Northridge and 1971 Sylmar quakes. The good [ordinary] life of the Golden State
Completely unrelated to Japan, SoCal just had a M4.1 offshore from Palos Verdes. Not near any known fault. Way too small to even talk about tsunamis. Japan's M7.5 is 100,000 times bigger than a M4.1
There is no correlation between the earthquake and the tropical storm. Just a coincidence that is a good reminder that disaster resilience is a multi-hazard endeavor.
A tsunami primer (1 of 6):
Tsunamis begin when the shape of the seafloor changes suddenly. The water above the changed seafloor is pushed up, but then because it is a fluid, immediately falls down to both sides, creating the wave that moves towards shore
The quake sequence off Oregon is on the Blanco Fracture zone. I searched the catalog for M≥5 events in that region since 1980 and got 133 events (more than 3/yr). M5s on Blanco are very common and have never been followed by something on land. Plate tectonics in real time.
The M5.0 today is a Ridgecrest aftershock (remember we said a month ago that large, late aftershocks are common). It has its own aftershocks. So the next day or two should have a few M3s and has an increased (but still low) chance of another M5+
If you're asking if a quake prediction is legit: Look at the predictor's account. How many times have they posted a prediction? (Must be before the quake - postdictions don't count.) How many times did a quake actually happen? I haven't seen a legit one yet.
A tsunami warning has been issued because of the M8.1 for New Zealand. For Hawaii, we have a watch and nothing so far for California. We really are too far away. In the US, the alerts will always come from NOAA.
Quakes trigger other quakes nearby. no more than 3-4 times the length of their fault. A M7.0 might be able to trigger over 100 miles or so. No effect anywhere else. Alaska does not trigger California quakes and vice versa.
Every quake has a few % chance of being followed by something larger. So tonight has a slightly greater chance of a big quake than other nights. If you are in bed when a big quake hits, often the safest thing to do is stay in bed and cover your head with a pillow
We are now concluding social media updates for tonight's M4.4 near La Verne. If you have any questions, let us know. Thanks everyone for your interest in earthquake science and preparedness - stay safe! And if you feel any other earthquakes tonight (via ):
Well, a M4.2 in Malibu doesn’t shake Pasadena enough to wake anyone up. This is a similar location to the M5.2 that happened during the Rose Bowl game. That was felt in Pasadena with a “hmm, what was that? Do you think that was an earthquake?” Type of reaction
A pretty interesting day in the South Pacific. The M8.1 near Kermadec looks like a standard subduction interface event - the main plate tectonic boundary. The M7.4 at the same location ~2hrs earlier is clearly a foreshock. The M7.3 near New Zealand is 800km away, more ambiguous
People are talking about the “unprecedented” movement of the Garlock fault after the Ridgecrest quake. It’s true we haven’t seen this in the 30 years of modern geodesy on the Garlock fault. But we’ve seen it many times on the San Andreas & it has never caused a quake. 1/
Tonight's swarm is closer to the San Andreas, but still not in "triggering range". All foreshocks in California have been within 10 km of their mainshock and most were within 3 km. This is still 20+ km away