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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel Profile
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel

@CurtissOnFilm

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(he/him) Oscars writer & co-creator of the reigning best mathematical model in predicting the Oscars, with @MitchellCurtiss . Personal/Letterboxd @ccurtiss98

Florida, USA
https://t.co/RWnLnC4CEU
Joined January 2023
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
To cap off the season for our #OscarsModel , here are our official results! As far as we know (and please prove us wrong!), ours was the SINGLE MOST ACCURATE Model in existence this year for both Oscar nominations *and* winners! 🥳🎉 A dream come true.
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Archived: The 1st Oscars Model Winners Predictions

Here’s how our inaugural run of our Oscars Model performed at the 96th Academy Awards!

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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Randolph is officially the fourth actor in the last decade (first since 2015) to sweep both the Critics (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC) and Industry circuit (GG, CCA, BAFTA, SAG). The others: Blanchett 2014, Simmons and Arquette 2015… all won Oscars
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers #SAGawards #SAG #ScreenActorsGuild #AwardsSeason #FYC #FilmTwitter
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
wild, absolutely incredible, unfathomable moment in awards history
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 Kansas City Film Critics Circle (KCFCC) Winners #KCFCC #Oppenheimer #KillersOfTheFlowerMoon #TheHoldovers #AnatomyOfAFall #Barbie #FYC #Oscars #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Oscars2024 #Awards #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
@fiImgal my contribution
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
The SAG races like these are so fascinating, because the narratives could swing SO much depending on the winner. If the GG/BAFTA/CC winner takes SAG, they’re a straight sweeper and it’s not close. If the other GG winner takes SAG, it gets into real toss-up territory.
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
✨⭐️ SAG Awards are in, ⭐️✨ and here are the updated numbers in the #OscarsModel !! Gladstone takes the lead in Best Actress, and the other three look more or less sewn up with Solid leads! Here’s the full numbers: (cont. 👇🏼)
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2024 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award Winners #SAGAwards #SAG #ScreenActorsGuild #Oppenheimer #Awards #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscar #FYC #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Another great exercise for the #OscarsModel ! According to the math, *in a vacuum, assuming only Oscar-nominated winners,* it is Gladstone & Stone (even if Mulligan sweeps the rest, just barely!). If Stone wins anywhere- except a Gladstone SAG- she’s ahead. Otherwise, Gladstone!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
Unraveling The Scenarios For Who Will Win Best Actress At The #Oscars By @MoCJones #Oscars2024 #OscarNoms #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #EmmaStone #PoorThings #SandraHuller #AnatomyOfAFall #LilyGladstone #KillersOfTheFlowerMoon #FYC #Awards #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
This is where the #OscarsModel thrives! Let’s take a look at these possibilities in the Model (**in a vacuum**). The Model doesn’t see a path for Cooper to be the definitive frontrunner, though taking SAG and BAFTA would get him extremely close. Murphy on top for most iterations!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
Unraveling The Scenarios For Who Will Win Best Actor At The Oscars By @MoCJones #Oscar #Oscars2024 #OscarNoms #AcademyAwards #Awards #FYC #AwardsSeason #CillianMurphy #Oppenheimer #BradleyCooper #Maestro #PaulGiamatti #TheHoldovers #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
will never not share my masterpiece
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@fiImgal
bethany
@fiImgal
4 months
god bless the people who make extremely niche letterboxd lists idk what i’d do without you
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
*psst* Good time to remind you that the #OscarsModel will be here to help you with Best Actress, no matter what happens at BAFTA and SAG! Here’s the estimated math for all possible outcomes assuming only Oscar-nominated winners at both. It’s a Stone/Gladstone nail-biter!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
How BAFTA & SAG Could Set The Stage For A Historic Best Actress Showdown At The Oscars By @Robertdoc1984 #Oscars96 #AcademyAwards #FYC #AwardsSeason #EmmaStone #PoorThings #LilyGladstone #KillersOfTheFlowerMoon #SandraHuller #AnatomyOfAFall #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
The biggest piece remaining in the awards race is finally here! Oppenheimer wins big, Poor Things got everything it needed, and a couple awesome smaller wins for Zone of Interest and Boy & Heron. The #OscarsModel is FULLY updated! Check it out below!
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2024 EE British Academy Film Awards ( #BAFTA ) Winners #BAFTAs #EEBAFTAs #EEBAFTA #Awards #AwardsSeason #FYC #Oppenheimer #PoorThings #TheZoneOfInterest #AnatomyOfAFall #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
PGA winners award the previous frontrunners in the Animated Feature & Best Picture races, with Spider-Verse and Oppenheimer taking top prizes! Doc F remains unchanged with a non-nominated film winning. Here’s how these races look in the #OscarsModel in the home stretch!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Producers Guild Of America (PGA) Winners #PGAawards #PGA #Oppenheimer #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #FYC #Movies #Film #TV #Television #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
By the (current) math in the #OscarsModel , it’s Poor Things (by a bit!). However- no surprise- it’s not close at all!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
What Is OPPENHEIMER's Biggest Challenger For Best Picture? By @Robertdoc1984 #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscars96 #AcademyAwards #BestPicture #AwardsSeason #Oppenheimer #TheHoldovers #AmericanFiction #PoorThings #AnatomyOfAFall #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
1 year
SAG admittedly put a major finger on the scales of the acting races. I find the possibilities of Yeoh and Condon especially compelling (we’ll see if I switch to them), but I remain headstrong with Butler despite this result. #SAGAwards2023
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
1 year
The 2023 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award Winners #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce #EEAAO #SAG #SAGawards #ScreenActorsGuild #Awards #Oscars #FYC #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
🏆THE FINAL 2024 #OscarsModel 🏆 Everything is calibrated and complete; it’s officially ready to make the inaugural run. Who’s going to win at the 2024 Oscars, according to the math?? @MitchellCurtiss and I are proud to present: the 2024 #OscarsModel .
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*FINAL* 2024 Oscars Model

Welcome to the inaugural 2024 Oscars Model! Below you will see Model outputs (odds of win) for all Oscars categories except the shorts (Animated, Documentary, and Live-Action). This page has been l…

curtissonfilm.wordpress.com
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
“The Boy and the Heron” pulls of a 1-in-4 upset in Best Animated Feature to give Miyazaki his second competitive Oscar! A real (but not totally unforeseen) upset in the #OscarsModel . Model is 1/2, but I am personally thrilled for predicting it!
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
just self reflected, she does
@burritoprophet
sam
@burritoprophet
4 months
Society needs to self-reflect and ask itself if Emma Stone really needs two Oscars at this moment and time
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Eagle-eyed #OscarsModel watchers may notice a change in the Adapted Screenplay race; I found a bug in the Model this morning that was affecting only this category. It’s been corrected, and here’s the changes! Oppenheimer a tad stronger than before, now Leaning in its favor.
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
The inaugural #OscarsModel picks are totally, finally, absolutely finalized. Who’s ready to see the official predictions?!?! Dropping soon. ⏱️
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Big day of awards throughout the day (ASC, MPSE, ACE, and IPA Satellite Awards), and it's the *final* day of tracked precursors in the #OscarsModel ! I won't be posting/updating after every single one live, but I'll be back tomorrow/in the morning with the Model's FINAL results!
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
2 months
Only five films in the 21st century have converted a Q1 release into a Best Picture nomination. “Dune: Part Two” looms large as a potential (inevitable?) sixth in 2024. In my latest with @NextBestPicture , I take a look at where it lands among them and how these paths emerge! 👇🏼
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
2 months
DUNE: PART TWO And The Modern Q1 Best Picture Contender By @CurtissOnFilm #DunePartTwo #Dune2 #DunePart2 #DuneMovie #Dune #Oscars #BestPicture #AcademyAwards #FYC #Awards #DenisVilleneuve #TimotheeChalamet #AustinButler #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Things I’m considering today: Production Design is much more closely tied to overall film strength at the Oscars, and Poor Things has that along with momentum (BAFTA/Guild over Barbie). Costumes are much more independent from overall strength, can kind of go their own way.
@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
oops i switched them…
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Typically the most important precursor for Best Director; Nolan strengthens his stranglehold in the #OscarsModel , reducing all others to single digits- shaping up to be one of the most noncompetitive races overall. Over in Doc F, 20 Days in Mariupol gets a boost from DGA, too!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Directors Guild Of America (DGA) Winners #DGAawards #DGA #BestDirector #Oscars   #FYC #Oscars2024   #AcademyAwards #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oppenheimer #ChristopherNolan #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Cutest and Best Dog is actually an extremely viable campaign strategy for any film and should be actively encouraged
@FilmUpdates
Film Updates
@FilmUpdates
3 months
Multiple companies with nominated films complained to the Academy that allowing Messi from ‘ANATOMY OF A FALL’ to attend the Oscar nominees luncheon gave the film an advantage during the voting window. He will not be attending this year’s #Oscars . ()
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
According to the #OscarsModel ’s official predictions, is the Academy going to spread the wealth?? It’s a resounding no, since Oppenheimer is slated to take nine! But what about among everything else? Then definitely yes, with no other film getting more than two!
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
🏆THE FINAL 2024 #OscarsModel 🏆 Everything is calibrated and complete; it’s officially ready to make the inaugural run. Who’s going to win at the 2024 Oscars, according to the math?? @MitchellCurtiss and I are proud to present: the 2024 #OscarsModel .
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
The big week for Cinematography continues with the BSC, slightly less accurate to Oscar noms than the ASC earlier this week in our #OscarsModel , but still one of the better precursors. Looks like four near-locks; who will be fifth?? Check out the newest outlook in the Model:
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 British Society of Cinematographers (BSC) Nominations #BSC #BestCinematography #Cinematography #Saltburn #LinusSandgren #Cinematographer #Awards #Oscars #FYC #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
9 months
Two international non-English films have never shared a Best Picture lineup before. Will 2024 make history? ANATOMY OF A FALL and THE ZONE OF INTEREST seem best positioned at this point- will they both make it?* My latest at @NextBestPicture 👇🏼
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Making The Case For Two International Features To Be Nominated For Best Picture

In an era of growing strength from international films at the Oscars, both in frequency and broadening showings in nominations, there is a chance another important mark will be made for the first...

nextbestpicture.com
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
In Picture, with the Best Ensemble award, Oppenheimer finally moves to the Solid category as well in the #OscarsModel .
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
The last nominations of the season for the #OscarsModel ! Here’s how things change in the screenplay races 👇🏼 Nothing too major here. NB: Oscar nominees Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, and frontrunner Anatomy of a Fall were all ineligible here. Winners *post-Oscars!*
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Writers Guild Of America (WGA) Nominations #WGA #WGAawards #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscars96 #FYC #AcademyAwards #BestOriginalScreenplay #BestAdaptedScreenplay #AwardsSeason #Awards #Movies #Film #Cinema #TV #Television #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
With a dominant showing at the Annie awards, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse moves into Solid win territory in the #OscarsModel , in what is still an interested two-film race. This data will soon be outdated with BAFTA just hours away, but a big win for Spidey, no doubt!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Annie Award Winners #AnnieAwards #AnnieAwards51 #Animation #BestAnimatedFeature #FYC #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscars96 #AcademyAwards #SpiderManAcrossTheSpiderVerse #SpiderVerse #Nimona #RobotDreams #TheBoyAndTheHeron #Movies #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
2 months
While the post-Oscars WGA does not affect this past year’s #OscarsModel results, it’s clear American Fiction was even more solid of a winner than we thought in March, and the Model appears totally correct that The Holdovers was the runner-up in Original. Let’s not do this again!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
2 months
The 2023 Writers Guild Of America (WGA) Winners #WGAawards #WGA #BestOriginalScreenplay #BestAdaptedScreenplay #TheHoldovers #AmericanFiction #Awards #AwardsSeason #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
According to the math, this is totally true! Highest odds of win in the current #OscarsModel : -Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Supporting Actress: 99.4% -Robert Downey, Jr. in Supporting Actor: 96.9% -Oppenheimer in Original Score: 95.3% -Oppenheimer in Film Editing: 91.9%
@luvlee_dayz
Lovely Day
@luvlee_dayz
4 months
@CurtissOnFilm She's the biggest lock on Oscar night. Robert Downey Jr is the second biggest.
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Happy SAG day! Across the four acting races, SAG is one of the most predictive of Oscar nominees (especially strong in Lead Actor). Vital appearances for Nyad gals, Cruz, Domingo, among others. Here’s how the #OscarsModel reflects the new state of the acting races!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2024 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award Nominations #SAGawards #SAG #SAGAFTRA #ScreenActorsGuild #Oscars #FYC #TheColorPurple #AmericanFiction #Oppenheimer #Barbie #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #Movies #Film #TV #Television #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
CDG goes pretty much exactly as expected, with the face-off between Poor Things and Barbie looking to be one of the more competitive crafts. The #OscarsModel has increasing confidence in Poor Things in the end, however! Here’s how this affects the race:
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Costume Designers Guild (CDG) Winners #CDGA #CostumeDesignersGuild #CDG892 #CDG #BestCostumeDesign #PoorThings #Barbie #Saltburn #Awards #Movies #AwardsSeason #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscars96 #AcademyAwards #FYC #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Well, this is certainly the biggest (mathematical) upset possibly happening tonight- the precursor-less “Godzilla Minus One” manages to snag a win in Best Visual Effects over all the more likely nominees! A thrilling loss for the #OscarsModel . Model is 6/10, halfway through!
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
8 months
🚨RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN IS OFFICIALLY IN THE MODEL 🚨
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
8 months
The 2023 Hollywood Music In Media Awards (HMMA) Nominations #HMMA #BestOriginalScore #BestOriginalSong #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #FYC #AcademyAwards #Wonka #WonkaMovie #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Huge piece of the Production Design puzzle, especially since Barbie and Poor Things were competing against each other. In the #OscarsModel , Oppenheimer takes first place after the weighty Period win, Barbie takes a significant step back. Poor Things climbing slowly but surely!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Art Directors Guild (ADG) Winners #ADGawards #ADG #BestProductionDesign #Oscars #FYC #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #Awards #AwardsSeason #PoorThings #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Going with: Stone Giamatti Randolph Downey, Jr. Ensemble- Barbie Stunts- M:I Dead Reckoning
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
Our Winner Predictions For The 2024 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards #SAGAwards #SAG #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscar #FYC #AcademyAwards #Oppenheimer #TheBear #Succession #Movies #Film #Cinema #Television #TV #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Mammoth day for shaping the eventual Oscar 5 in Director- in our #OscarsModel , the DGA is the strongest precursor for predicting these Oscar nominees (78% over the last decade). Payne enters the top 5, w/ the DGA noms on top. Check out how The Model adjusts with this batch:
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 Directors Guild Of America (DGA) Feature Film Nominations #DGAAwards #DirectorsGuild #BestDirector #Oscars #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #FYC #Awards #GretaGerwig #Barbie #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
The ASC awards are the strongest cinematography precursor for nominees in our #OscarsModel , so these are important ones- almost 75% accurate over the last decade. Big day for B&W, El Conde off the top rope! Here’s how the race has changed in the Model:
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 American Society Of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations #ASC #BestCinematography #Cinematography #ElConde #Movies #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #FYC #AcademyAwards #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
@DizzyJB If I personally had to bet, I’d predict Stone/Giamatti tomorrow
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
1 year
If you felt like ELVIS’ Oscar shutout was especially surprising, that’s because it was. I examine this in my latest article at @NextBestPicture :
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
1 year
The Surprising Oscar Shut Out Of ELVIS By @CurtissOnFilm #Oscars #Oscars95 #AcademyAwards #Elvis #ElvisMovie #AustinButler #BazLuhrmann #WarnerBros #AwardsSeason #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
1 year
-5th slot in Actor remains a mystery -Deadwyler in the hunt, joined by de Armas apparently? Davis is happening. -Eddie Redmayne is the Jared Leto of 2023 -Dream stays alive for Hsu and Chau! Buckley/Foy looking almost impossible -Women Talking/Fabelmans stay alive w Ensemble!
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
1 year
The 2022 Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award Nominations #SAGawards #SAG #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #AcademyAwards #FYC #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
A fun #OscarsModel hypothetical: Here's (basically) how the odds would look if Oppenheimer wins the IPA Satellite Award for Adapted Screenplay tonight... 😱
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
1 year
its oscar day
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
The first data for the #OscarsModel in a long while now, and it moves the needle a bit in Best Cinematography! Oppenheimer remains a strong favorite to win, but Poor Things comes close to 2nd place with this win. BSC has previewed Oscar winners 5 out of the last 10 years!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 British Society of Cinematographers (BSC) Winner #BSC #Cinematography #BestCinematography #PoorThings #RobbieRyan #AwardsSeason #Awards #FYC #Oscars #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Aside from all the excitement about the #OscarsModel , I’m taking a second to be thrilled about my own personal performance on Oscar nom predictions: I placed in the top 2.3% on both @GoldDerby and @withbrotherbro ’s Award Expert app (which is incredible, btw!). Pretty damn good!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2024 Oscar Nominations #Oscars #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Oscars2024 #OscarNoms #Oscar #Awards #OscarNominations #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Over the moon to have been a part of this special episode, what a memorable first time on the show! Listen to me react to BAFTA wins, have nothing insightful to say re: Super Bowl trailers, and so much more, all along with the great @NextBestPicture and @dancindanonfilm !
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
THE NEXT BEST PICTURE PODCAST: Ep 381 - #BAFTA Winners, #SAG Predictions, #DeadpoolAndWolverine , #Wicked & #Twisters Trailer w/ @dancindanonfilm @CurtissOnFilm #NBPpodcast #PodcastAndChill #Oscars #AwardsSeason #EEBAFTAs #BAFTA2024 #FYC #Film #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
🏆WE HAVE A WINNERS MODEL🏆 Oscar nominations are finally here, so now it’s time to turn our sights on the hardware handed out on March 10! Check out our #OscarsModel early and often to see who’s out in front for Oscar glory- all according to the math!
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*FINAL* 2024 Oscars Model

Welcome to the inaugural 2024 Oscars Model! Below you will see Model outputs (odds of win) for all Oscars categories except the shorts (Animated, Documentary, and Live-Action). This page has been l…

curtissonfilm.wordpress.com
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
1 year
A pretty miraculous (fully deserved) win. Directing pair, in their mid 30s, making their second feature ever, never shying away from their goofiness on screen and in person. I’ve been skeptical of the Hollywood establishment fully opening their arms to them, but this says it all.
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
1 year
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert aka. “Daniels” have won the DGA Award for Best Narrative Feature Film for #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce #DGAawards
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
After a Poor Things BAFTA upset, Maestro rebounds in impressive fashion! It solidly regains the lead in the #OscarsModel , and it’ll keep it; this is the final tracked precursor in The Model here, meaning MAESTRO is the #OscarsModel ’s first OFFICIAL Oscar prediction! 🤩🏆
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Makeup Artists & Hair Stylists Guild (MUAHS) Winners #Maestro #Barbie #Saltburn #Makeup #Hairstyling #BestMakeupAndHairstyling #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscars96 #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #FYC #Movies #Film #Cinema #TV #Television #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Is Best Picture really going to be this simple?! And isn’t it just about exactly what we all thought it would be back in the summer?! My latest on @NextBestPicture , diving a little deeper into a remarkably static Best Picture race going into nominations. Give it a read! 👇🏼
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
Inside An Unusually Static Best Picture Race By @CurtissOnFilm #Oscars #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #BestPicture #Movies #Film #Cinema #AnatomyOfAFall #Oppenheimer #TheZoneOfInterest #Maestro #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
My favorite performances of 2020-2023
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@keithgdesigns
Keith Goulette 🪦
@keithgdesigns
3 months
My favorite performances of 2020-2023
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
psst original screenplay is the third closest race in the #OscarsModel and is not as over and done as we might think
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Super interesting comparanda to our own #OscarsModel results before Sunday- lots looks the same, but a few interesting departures! Ben’s model is an absolutely essential part of any Oscar predictors diet, check it out.
@BensOscarMath
Ben Zauzmer
@BensOscarMath
3 months
For the 13th year, I'm proud to present my mathematical Oscar predictions! Exclusively on @THR :
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
7 months
Perennially one of my favorite awards, but they stayed a bit more mainstream this year! Big wins for all films involved, solidifying all four acting winners in their races. In our #OscarsModel , NYFCC winners most closely align with the Oscars in Picture and Documentary.
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
7 months
The 2023 New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) Winners #NYFCC #KillersOfTheFlowerMoon #Oppenheimer #Movies #Film #Cinema #Oscars #FYC #Awards #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
2 months
the #OscarsModel this weekend with one more piece of data for 2024
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
2 months
The WGA Awards are this weekend!! Here’s a reminder who the nominees are. What are your predictions? #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
The acting winners (and margins) very closely mirror the current #OscarsModel ! Love to see it.
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@ryan_casselman
Ryan Casselman
@ryan_casselman
4 months
The results are in!!! 🙃This is a follow-up video announcing the winners from the Best Actor Formula. Some categories are no-brainers this year, but what about that Actress category? Does the formula give Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone the edge? 🤔
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
6 months
Obviously no winners at the AFI awards, but 59% of awardees in the last 10 years have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, making it a middle-of-the-road precursor in our 2024 #OscarsModel . What a day for data!!
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
6 months
The American Film Institute's (AFI) Top 10 Films Of 2023 #AFI #SpiderManAcrossTheSpiderVerse #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #AcademyAwards #FYC #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
An exciting peek behind the #OscarsModel curtain: with the inclusion of a hypothetical 2025-season movie (“Ascendance,” Dir. Blurgos Slanthimos, starring Dobert Rowney, Jr., Emma Stone 2, Messi, and Emily “420” Blunt,) the switch is flipped + the Model incorporates all 2024 data!
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
6 months
For the first time in its life, the #OscarsModel has live data from one of the Big 4!! Another strong day for The Zone of Interest, and The Color Purple feels notably absent a couple places. The Golden Globes are cool this year????
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
6 months
The 2024 Golden Globe Nominations #GoldenGlobes #GoldenGlobeAwards #Awards #AwardsSeason #GG #Movies #Film #Television #Streaming #TV #FYC #Oscars #AcademyAwards #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Exactly the kind of kingmaking outcome this category needed late in the race- The Creator pulls way ahead with a Solid lead in the #OscarsModel . Of note, both Napoleon and Godzilla Minus One lose their races. Only IPA left, where Guardians and Godzilla aren’t nominated. 👀
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Visual Effects Society (VES) Winners #VESAwards #VFX #BestVisualEffects #Oscars #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #FYC #TheCreator #Nyad #SpiderManAcrossTheSpiderVerse #TheLastOfUs #AwardsSeason #Awards #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Love this breakdown of Oscars math and the role it should/should not play in our predictions. @MitchellCurtiss and I have been saying it from the very first post introducing our #OscarsModel (below 👇🏼)! @LCWTAction puts it excellently in the article; a great read before tomorrow.
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
3 months
Why Using Statistics Alone Won’t Help Your Oscar Predictions By @LCWTAction #Oscars #Oscars2024 #Oscar #Oscars96 #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Oppenheimer #TheZoneOfInterest #Barbie #PoorThings #TheCreator #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
👀 @MitchellCurtiss is going down on this ship too. In the #OscarsModel we trust 🫡
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@JRParham
Josh Parham
@JRParham
3 months
Not making one, but have a feeling Oppenheimer could surprise in Production Design.
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Wow so I'm really just gonna have only one "against-consensus" pick, huh... I feel way too nervous about everything!!
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
No mechanic for BAFTA Longlists in the #OscarsModel at this point, but we do know who will be missing the very significant weight of the eventual BAFTA noms. No Melton in Supporting, particularly strong showing for All of Us Strangers, Saltburn, and Past Lives on first glance!
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2024 EE British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) Longlists #EEBAFTA #BAFTA #BAFTAs #Awards #Oppenheimer #Barbie #KillersOfTheFlowerMoon #Saltburn #PoorThings #AwardsSeason #Longlists #Oscars #FYC #AcademyAwards #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
A look at the races that will make or break the #OscarsModel : categories sorted by closeness (spread between 1st and 2nd in the Model) Will the smallest margins go in the #OscarsModel ’s favor? Will there be any huge upsets toward the bottom of the chart?
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
🏆THE FINAL 2024 #OscarsModel 🏆 Everything is calibrated and complete; it’s officially ready to make the inaugural run. Who’s going to win at the 2024 Oscars, according to the math?? @MitchellCurtiss and I are proud to present: the 2024 #OscarsModel .
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
If I had an Oscar ballot
@AdriCaporusso
Adriano Caporusso
@AdriCaporusso
4 months
If I had an Oscar ballot
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
A game-changer in Adapted Screenplay, and one many felt was overdue in the #OscarsModel : American Fiction shoots into first place by a strong margin in Adapted Screenplay with the USC Scripter win! Still a relatively tight race, but it's finally a true frontrunner in our math.
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 USC Scripter Award Winners #USC #USCScripter #AmericanFiction #BestAdaptedScreenplay #SlowHorses #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #Oscars96 #Oscars2024 #Oscar #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
A good one! In the #OscarsModel , based on true precursor performance in-category, Oppenheimer is 3rd behind American Fiction and Barbie. Its general strength and other Oscar noms give it a significant boost, into 1st in our math. This is the Model reading beyond just the stats!
@DizzyJB
Jason Brautigam
@DizzyJB
4 months
@CurtissOnFilm Genuine question: how does Oppenheimer lead without winning a major precursor?
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
1 year
Its been 82 years since Picture, Director, and Screenplays fully split. Here’s how it could very realistically happen in March! My article on @NextBestPicture :
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
1 year
The Case For A Historic Oscar Best Picture, Director & Screenplay Split In 2023 By @CurtissOnFilm #Oscars #OscarNoms #Oscars95 #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce #TheBansheesOfInisherin #TheFabelmans #WomenTalking #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Last year EEAAO won 7 Oscars, the most since Gravity. One year later, OPPENHEIMER looks well-positioned to surpass that with potential ease! In my latest with @NextBestPicture , we look at how OPPENHEIMER may become the biggest Oscar winner since 2009. Check it out!
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
Will OPPENHEIMER Become the Biggest #Oscar Winner Since SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE? By @CurtissOnFilm #Oscars #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Awards #FYC #Oppenheimer #ChristopherNolan #CillianMurphy #RobertDowneyJr #EmilyBlunt #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Important data for a fractured VFX race; big day for The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Spider-Verse! The main VFX category and the Composition & Lighting categories are most correlated to Oscar noms. Check out how our #OscarsModel reflects the changes- big shakeups!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 Visual Effects Society (VES) Nominations #BestVisualEffects #Oscars #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Oppenheimer #IndianaJones #TheCreator #GuardiansOfTheGalaxy #TheLastOfUs #Awards #FYC #Movies #Film #Cinema #TV #Televsion #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
The last major data point until BAFTAs! Excellent night for Oppenheimer, Barbie, and The Holdovers. Giamatti and Stone with pivotal wins, and frustration grows as non-shortlisted films win categories! Check out the FULLY updated #OscarsModel results here:
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*FINAL* 2024 Oscars Model

Welcome to the inaugural 2024 Oscars Model! Below you will see Model outputs (odds of win) for all Oscars categories except the shorts (Animated, Documentary, and Live-Action). This page has been l…

curtissonfilm.wordpress.com
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 Critics Choice Award Winners #CriticsChoiceAwards #CCA #CriticsChoice #Oppenheimer #Barbie #Succession #TheBear #Beef #Awards #Oscars #FYC #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #TV #Television #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Some context from the #OscarsModel regarding Best Actress: In score *from precursors alone,* Gladstone leads with 2.66 to Stone’s 2.64. You don’t need to know a lot about the Model’s math to see how close that is! Close as can be! (Blanchett/Yeoh was 2.86 to 2.60, respectively)
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Obviously, the #OscarsModel ≠ betting markets, but this has to be the biggest divide for a particular nominee right now. I *totally* understand the prediction of Godzilla Minus One in VFX (I disagree with the Model's estimation here), but the data simply doesn't support a win.
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@14_kaiju
Kaiju No. 14
@14_kaiju
4 months
Odds of winning the #Oscar for Visual Effects: 52% - Godzilla Minus One 42% - The Creator 6% - Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning 6% - Napoleon N/A - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (via )
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
The last little bit of data came from the IPA Satellite Awards last night. Both won in their respective categories, but C/M has tracked with Oscar winners a bit better than D since the genre split in the category; Stone’s win was more valuable in the #OscarsModel
@AKlay19
Adam Klay
@AKlay19
3 months
@CurtissOnFilm What caused the switch from Gladstone to Stone?
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
No rest for the #OscarsModel ! Both of us brothers have been hard at work today (and all week) adding new precursors and teaching the Model everything it needed to learn from the past seasons winners! The last year’s BEST #OscarsModel is getting better every day.
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
6 months
NBR is always exciting!! Quite reliable when it comes to translating to Oscar nominations, not so much when it comes to Oscar wins much of the time. Gladstone and Randolph keep the momentum going, while Ruffalo makes his first major splash. Another entry for the ‘24 #OscarsModel !
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
6 months
The 2023 National Board Of Review (NBR) Winners #NBR #NationalBoardOfReview #KillersOfTheFlowerMoon #Movies #Awards #Oscars #FYC #Film #AcademyAwards #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
With the dust settled after Sunday’s Oscars, I got all my own personal prediction statistics updated; not sure if I’ve shared here! 8 years in, I still have 4 categories I’ve never predicted wrong: S Actor, Ad Screenplay, Animated F, International F.
Backing it Up: My Prediction History

I started formally predicting the Oscars in 2017- just the winners. Every year since, I have predicted the nominations as well as the winners themselves. (Note: The year noted = year of the Oscars …

curtissonfilm.wordpress.com
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
Taking a moment to appreciate: Around Oscar nominations I had just over 100 followers here. Today, not long after, me+our #OscarsModel hit 200! While not huge numbers by any stretch of the imagination, doubling the reach in that short time means the world! Thanks to everyone!!
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Most exciting day of the year for all our Animated contenders! The Feature category is the obvious best bellwether (64% over the last decade), with Character Animation also being fairly strong. And, PGA tomorrow! Here’s how our #OscarsModel shows the Animated race now:
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2023 Annie Award Nominations #AnnieAwards #Animation #BestAnimatedFeature #Oscars #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #FYC #Movies #Film #Cinema #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
With a win here at CAS, Oppenheimer significantly expands its lead here in Best Sound according to the #OscarsModel , mostly at the expense of The Zone of Interest. It's looking like a true lock for Oppenheimer; if The Zone of Interest is going to upset, it'll be on passion alone!
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@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
The 2023 Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Winners #CASawards2024 #CAS #Oppenheimer #BestSound #Sound #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #Oscar #Oscars2024 #Oscars96 #AcademyAwards #Movies #Film #Cinema #Television #TV #Streaming #FilmTwitter
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
what are we doing guys
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
oops i switched them…
@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Another day, another flip-flop in the Costume/Production Design battle between Barbie and Poor Things. How I ended today: Poor Things in Costumes Barbie in PD Who knows if this will last to Sunday, but I have my reasons today!
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
@kateyrich Noooo 😥 Thank you for your amazing work on Little Gold Men and so much more, you’ve been such a terrific presence in awards season and all else. Heartbroken to hear this, even more heartbroken to hear you’re feeling this way too.
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Another day, another flip-flop in the Costume/Production Design battle between Barbie and Poor Things. How I ended today: Poor Things in Costumes Barbie in PD Who knows if this will last to Sunday, but I have my reasons today!
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Coffee’s hot, Model’s running, livestream waiting… we made it! Time for the #OscarsModel ’s first ever nomination run! Let’s go!! 🥳🤩
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
2 months
The #OscarsModel has its sights set for its second run!! See you then!
@TheAcademy
The Academy
@TheAcademy
2 months
Mark your calendars! The 97th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 2, 2025. Nominations will be announced on Friday, January 17, 2025.
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Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
We have a piece of data in the #OscarsModel that shows us “expected” number of nominees based on the field’s strength (over 5 xNominees means officially stronger than the avg year), and Production Design is the strongest of the techs so far, already (!) closer to 6 than 5.
@RedCarpetRstrs
Red Carpet Rosters
@RedCarpetRstrs
5 months
One of the most stacked categories this year in the Oscar race is sneakily Best Production Design. These nominations are absolutely indicative of that.
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Last year, EEAAO won 7 Oscars in the biggest haul since Gravity. This year, Oppenheimer looks poised to perhaps even surpass that. Where do you think Oppenheimer will end up?
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
@IMadeAn19050380 @MitchellCurtiss We have lots of ideas! Don’t want to over promise, so I’ll try to be transparent during/before next year. Definitely a couple new precursors, a few other mechanics, tweaking things that led us astray. Lots, we’ll see what sticks!
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Happy Oscars night from @MitchellCurtiss and I, ballot in hand filled out with the official #OscarsModel picks! We’re crossing our fingers for a successful first ever run, and excited to cap off our amazing inaugural season. Thanks for the support, and enjoy the show! #Oscars
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
It’s here- The 2024 #OscarsModel is UPDATED and 🏆FINALIZED🏆 before Oscar nominations on Tuesday- check out the full inaugural slate of predictions in ALL categories (besides shorts)!! 🎉 Spread far and wide- hope it helps you perfect your predictions!
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*FINAL* 2024 Oscars Model

Welcome to the inaugural 2024 Oscars Model! Below you will see Model outputs (odds of win) for all Oscars categories except the shorts (Animated, Documentary, and Live-Action). This page has been l…

curtissonfilm.wordpress.com
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
@jessiblady They have nearly identical precursor records, but it has recognition at LAFCA and NSFC and NBR wins that Oppenheimer doesn’t- that explains the tiny lead.
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
BAFTA throws some curveballs at the top of the ticket, while crafts break fairly expectedly! Weird showings for KOTFM and Barbie, Saltburn and The Zone of Interest get a boost, and the jury system shows strengths and weaknesses. The #OscarsModel will be FULLY updated later today!
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
5 months
The 2024 EE British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) Nominations #BAFTA #EEBAFTA #BAFTANoms #BAFTAs #Nominations #Awards #AwardsSeason #Oscars #FYC #AnatomyOfAFall #TheZoneOfInterest #PoorThings #Oppenheimer #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
4 months
In this article from February, I mentioned an overall Oscar Win Strength metric we have in the #OscarsModel . Oppenheimer ranked 7th in the last decade at the time of writing. After BAFTAs, Oppenheimer officially passed La La Land for the #1 spot!! Rankings and scores below 👇🏼
@NextBestPicture
Matt Neglia
@NextBestPicture
4 months
Will OPPENHEIMER Become the Biggest #Oscar Winner Since SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE? By @CurtissOnFilm #Oscars #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #AwardsSeason #Awards #FYC #Oppenheimer #ChristopherNolan #CillianMurphy #RobertDowneyJr #EmilyBlunt #Cinema #FilmTwitter
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9
104
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
I don’t have a tweet prepped for this LMAO, “Poor Things” wins Best Makeup & Hairstyling!! Big props to @BensOscarMath ’s Model, who got this right! Model is 3/5!
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
5 months
Best first watches of January 2024- it’s a good one! Anatomy of a Fall (2023) The Iron Claw (2023) Society of the Snow (2023) Amelie (2001)
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@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
A couple notes that convinced me of this today: -The CC Award for PD has matched 9/10 in the last decade (Barbie won this), leads PT in Model -Half of the decade’s last Costume Design winners have been sole nominees; predicting Poor Things only in Costumes isn’t unjustifiable
@CurtissOnFilm
Cole Curtiss - The #OscarsModel
@CurtissOnFilm
3 months
Another day, another flip-flop in the Costume/Production Design battle between Barbie and Poor Things. How I ended today: Poor Things in Costumes Barbie in PD Who knows if this will last to Sunday, but I have my reasons today!
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