You can tell *a lot* by who receives a guest in
#SaudiArabia
.
#Biden
will be received by deputy governor of
#Mecca
. This is a *very* bad sign. Reminds of
#Obama
being received by governor of
#Riyadh
.
#Trump
was of course received by
#MbS
himself.
⚠️⚡️BREAKING: ALL
#Gulf
monarchies (including
#UAE
who abstained on previous
#UNSC
resolution) voted WITH the
#US
& AGAINST
#Russia
-n invasion of
#Ukraine
.
#SaudiArabia
#UNGA
Tables already turning?
This is perhaps the first time they acknowledge the magnitude of the crisis.
BREAKING:
#UAE
President
#KhalifabinZayed
just died. Crown Prince of
#AbuDhabi
since 1969, and Abu Dhabi Ruler & President since his father Sheikh Zayed died in 2004. The
#BurjKhalifa
was initially named to honor him.
A few words on him + what happens now in a thread. 1/
Today,
#Meloni
hosted a Conference on Development and Migrations in
#Rome
. Here is the family pic with the participants.
#Italy
invited several close
#Arab
&
#African
partners and, of course,
#EU
leaders. Check who showed up:
#UAE
’s President Mohammad bin Zayed (
#MbZ
). Why? 1/
Today the
#UAE
must make a choice on
#Putin
’s invasion of
#Ukraine
.
#AbuDhabi
has a seat at the
#UN
Security Council and today there will be a vote.
The UAE has been working with
#Russia
in
#Libya
& beyond. They see the
#US
less important in the future. But how about today?
🚨BREAKING🚨
Dhi Yazan, the eldest son of
#SultanHaitham
is officially the Crown Prince of
#Oman
. Investors long asked Oman to institute a stable succession system, but it was considered risky to upset the balance within the royal family. Not any more apparently. Some thoughts 1/
#
#Iranian
state media BREAKING NEWS:
#Iran
and
#SaudiArabia
agreed to re-establish ties and re-open embassies. 🇮🇷 🇸🇦
IF confirmed, this was months in the making but held back by the Saudis, asking for big
#Yemen
move from
#Tehran
. IF confirmed,
#Yemen
news coming soon, too.
Indeed
#Putin
already lost the political (and information) war over his invasion of
#Ukraine
.
The
#UNSC
resolution condemning
#Russia
had EIGHTY co-sponsors.
Note: the only
#Arab
country is
#Kuwait
- maybe the strongest partner of
#US
&
#EU
, who knows what being invaded means.
#France
and the
#US
had the same intelligence on
#Afghanistan
, but Paris analysts envisaged the worst case scenario right away, while Washington was overly-optimistic.
It’s the analysis, not the information, that makes the difference.
#Qatar
made a bet on
#Afghanistan
and the
#Talibans
and it is paying off. This is a bit controversial but I think many players will actually be eager to engage with the Talibans now and see if they are reasonable or useful. Most of these players will need the Qatari channel.
Thrilled I joined the
@MiddleEastInst
’s Defense and Security Program as a Non-Resident Scholar. Aims is contributing to the re-thinking of transatlantic security cooperation, from a European perspective, in the
#ArabianPeninsula
and the
#Gulf
. Will complement nicely my
@ecfr
work
First, the royal family was quick in agreeing to a successor. This portrays externally a show of unity that is very important in a volatile region and vis-à-vis concerns that neighbors like
#SaudiArabia
and
#UAE
would have likes to interfere in the process.
#Oman
closed ranks. 2/
#UAE
’s National Security Advisor (& security czar) Tahnoon bin Zayed met with
#Turkey
’s President
#Erdogan
today and tweeted it with a big smile. When TbZ moves, it is serious. This is the most significant event in UAE-Turkey relations in years.
An diesem Donnerstag wird der Sultan von
#Oman
#Deutschland
zu seinem ersten offiziellen Besuch überhaupt besuchen und
#Bundeskanzler
#Scholz
treffen. Warum hat Scholz Sultan Haitham eingeladen, wo er doch sehr mit der
#Ukraine
beschäftigt ist? Aus zwei Gründen:
Just heard an Emirati strategist referring to the
#UAE
as ‘not just a country, but a regional project’ and the
#UAE
-
#Israel
normalization agreement as ‘sending a strong deterrence message to competing regional projects,
#Iran
and
#Turkey
.’ Food for thought
#AbrahamAccord
Ties between monarchies continue to be strengthened as always were.
Announced today:
#Jordan
Crown Prince Al Hussein bin Abdullah II engaged to Rajwa Khaled bin Musaed bin Saif bin Abdulaziz Al Saif, related to
#SaudiArabia
royals, via her mother’s links to the
#Sudairi
clan.
The
#UAE
’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, (left) has left his position. He has been in position since 2008 and a pivotal figure internationally. He will be replaced by Sheikh Shakhbout bin Nahyan al-Nahyan (right). Many reasons, mostly internal. Thoughts 1/
We can safely say I have been waiting for this email for over three years. I feel over the moon! And thankful, to myself and to all those who supported and inspired me.
#PhD
#phdchat
#submitted
@UniofExeter
#SayyidHaitham
was among those considered likely successors of
#SultanQaboos
for years. He has a quiet personality and an immense culture. Oxford-educated, very close to the British royals, he lacks the military background that other major candidates had. This sends a message! 3/
📢 My
@ecfr
policy paper is out! 📢 Proud to share the outcome of months-long work and years-long thinking on how to strengthen
#Europe
's geopolitics in the
#Gulf
w/an eye to
#Libya
,
#Yemen
,
#Iran
,
#Iraq
. A thread w/major takeaways. Read the paper here: 1/
Strong indications of small breakthrough on the
#Qatar
crisis - with a provisional/trial framework for a bilateral détente btwn
#SaudiArabia
&
#Qatar
in the last phases of negotiations. We are closer than in Dec 2019, but the content discussed is the same so what changed? 1/
#UAE
National Security Advisor Tahnoon bin Zayed meeting with
#Qatar
Emir Tamim bin Hamad in
#Doha
. This comes after he met with
#Turkey
’s President
#Erdogan
. Like
#SaudiArabia
,
#AbuDhabi
is testing waters to move beyond the polarization that characterized the past few years.
Hi everyone, as of today I am starting a Research Fellowship at the European Council on Foreign Relations (
@ecfr
) and I am really excited about it!! In the next few months, I will continue working on the
#Gulf
(especially the
#GCC
countries), but from a
#European
perspective 1/
#SaudiArabia
’s CP
#MbS
&
#Iran
President
#Raisi
have their first-ever phone call agreeing to stand by
#Palestine
and stop the attack on
#Gaza
.
Fully as expected: the Saudi deal to normalize with
#Israel
, already difficult to happen in 2024, is delayed until further notice.
The
#India
-Middle East-Europe corridor can strengthen
#Europe
’s geo-economic influence in the
#Gulf
& wider
#MENA
But it is important that Europeans keep few things in mind as they work towards
#IMEC
’s action plan
NEW
@ecfr
short piece by me &
@jbdacey
:
BREAKING: King Salman issued a royal decree formally appointing Crown Prince
#MbS
to the post of Prime Minister, a position hitherto held by the King.
MbS is now head of
#SaudiArabia
’s government de jure not just de facto.
#أمر_ملكي:
أولاً: يكون صاحب السمو الملكي الأمير محمد بن سلمان بن عبدالعزيز آل سعود ولي العهد رئيساً لمجلس الوزراء؛ استثناءً من حكم المادة (السادسة والخمسين) من النظام الأساسي للحكم، ومن الأحكام ذوات الصلة الواردة في نظام مجلس الوزراء.
#واس
Very big news coming from
#Oman
!
#SultanHaitham
relinquished his role as Minister of Foreign Affairs and named Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi, long MOFA SG as
#Oman
's first FM! As it was long rumored, Yousef bin Alawi, a key person in
#Oman
-
#Iran
relations, has retired!
Breaking: Emir of
#Kuwait
Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad, 91 years old and with history of heart surgeries, delegates some responsibilities to Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf as he is admitted to the hospital. Precisely what the
#Gulf
*does not* need at the moment.
#GCC
#Italy
’s PM said “If
#Iran
doesn't change its stance (on killing protesters), Italy will consult w/allies to take more effective action."
As said before,
#Meloni
is tougher on Iran than Italian institutions (and her own FM) are, also due to her chief diplo advisor influence.
📢 NEW ACADEMIC PAPER 📢
Thrilled to contribute an article to the special issue of
@intl_spectator
(published by
@IAIonline
) dedicated to the
#GCC
, w/guest editors Layla Saleh & Larbi Sadiki. The article explores different security perceptions of
#Iran
. 1/
#MerryChristmas
from my family to yours. All in order here in
#Italy
: Nonna has been cooking since morning, puppy is snoring by the fireplace and house is filled with voices and laughs.
Feels pretty great to be back on the road in the
#MENA
region. First stop: a few days in
#Turkey
. Already had super insightful meetings in
#Istanbul
!
I see many negatively surprised that
#Oman
hosted
#Assad
. This is because in the West many misunderstood Omani strategic drivers. It never was about moralism. It is about prioritizing non-interference in domestic affairs and rejecting conflict between nations at all costs.
#Syria
BREAKING:
#Germany
&
#Qatar
sign
#LNG
deal under negotiation for months! Under the 15-year long-term contract
#Germany
will be supplied with about 2 million tons of LNG, starting in 2026. ⛽️
Congrats to 🇩🇪 & 🇶🇦 - as expected, going beyond petty
#WorldcupQatar2022
controversies.
The moment we were waiting for has come. New
#Kuwait
Emir,
#SheikhNawaf
, nominates his brother Mishal Al-Ahmad as Crown Prince. He is a security person, w/past experience in the Interior Ministry and Deputy Chief of the Kuwaiti National Guard since 2004. Some thoughts. 1/
Big day today for
#Europe
-
#Gulf
relations as the
#EU
will release its new
#GCC
strategy & its new
#energy
strategy (
#REPowerEU
).
We will be able to anticipate a lot on the short/medium-term future of relations between the two sides from thee two documents. ⏰⏳
#Europe
wants to work w/
#Biden
on the
#JCPOA
and a security dialogue btwn the
#GCC
countries &
#Iran
. But what are the core interests & red lines to get the buy-in of the
#Gulf
monarchies? How to navigate them? Find out in my new
@ECFRMena
policy paper 1/
It is impossible that
#Hamas
and its backers did not anticipate what kind of reaction
#Israel
would have.
So either Hamas’ goal was to create hell on earth for
#Palestinians
in
#Gaza
or there is something big that we are missing.
The biggest challenge of all will be to win the hearts and minds of
#Oman
-is.
#SultanQaboos
was the closest figure possible to a Father of the Nation. He was seen as the embodiment of the Sultanate national identity. He forged his legitimacy with two seminal conflicts....8/
Still no public congrats from
#SaudiArabia
to
#JoeBiden
. Massive mistake imho, but here’s why:
-
#DonaldTrump
a close ally, but also will be calling the shots until Jan in a heated region
- Biden had tough words on
#KingSalman
&
#MbS
. MbS wants to mend but by saving face/pride.
Only
@stephenkalin
could succeed getting this out of me: “If we all keep saying that they’re just flirting with others to get us back, we will be comfortably sleepwalking into the end of Western hegemony in the Gulf and therefore the wider
#MENA
”
#SayyidHaitham
has been also Chairman of the Committee for
#Oman
Vision 2040. This is crucial because socioeconomic reforms and reforms of political economy are the most important challenges for Oman, struggling with high deficit, international debt, youth unemployment. 6/
Concerning to see
#US
officials behaving as if the fall of
#Afghanistan
to the
#Talibans
is not a threat to national security - for many
#NATO
countries.
As of one of their first acts, the Talibans freed thousands of prisoners - many of them
#AlQaeda
&
#ISIS
fighters.
#SayyidHaitham
has instead a background as Minister of Culture and Heritage, several positions in the Foreign Affairs Ministry in the course of decades, during which he often chaired cabinet meetings. He knows how to navigate royalpolitik and the Palaces.
#Oman
5/
What a game! Congrats to
#SaudiArabia
’s team for a stunning performance and amazing & well-deserved victory!
#KSAARG
Great to see so much joy from my friends 💚 Alf Mabrouk!
As expected,
#MbZ
appoints his son
#KhaledbinMohammad
as Crown Prince of the
#UAE
. A jump towards the next generation. However, as expected,
#MbZ
also appointed his prominent brothers to new roles, keeping some power-sharing balance, but only within the Al-Nahyan clan.
You're rightly absorbed by the
#IsraelPalestine
events, but I just saw MEE reporting from a high-level
#Iraq
source on the new round of intelligence talks btwn
#Iran
&
#SaudiArabia
. Their account matches what I heard and it is NOT good. A quick thread 1/
Important summit in
#Baghdad
today, on Cooperation and Partnership in the region. Few thoughts:
The host is
#Iraq
’ PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who cut out for himself a role as regional mediator, between
#Arab
and
#Iranian
side. He believes Iraqi stability is tied to the region’s. 1/
Moreover there were two younger candidates in the mix. Choosing
#SayyidHaitham
(born 1954) sends a message of continuity not one of youthful change/disruption. On regional and foreign policy it is this very likely that
#Oman
will behave very similarly
#Iran
#SaudiArabia
4/
It would appear that
#Kuwait
's Emir, Sabah al-Sabah, 91yo, died. My condolences! The region looses the only remaining ruler who was personally involved in building the
#GCC
and in regional diplomacy, ie with
#Iran
,
#Iraq
and
#Qatar
. A delicate time in Kuwaiti politics now.
#Gulf
Hey all - personal announcement!
After almost 10 years living between
#London
&
#Berlin
, I moved back to
#Italy
and, specifically, to
#Milan
.
I will continue my work with
@ECFRMena
, AND I will continue to travel to Berlin (& London, Paris, Bruxelles etc) often.
But new HQ! 1/
#MbS
inviting both security czar Tahnoon bin Zayed and Emir Tamim bin Hamad is
#SaudiArabia
trying to build on the
#UAE
-
#Qatar
opening.
#Riyadh
wants to move away from exclusive special relationship w/
#AbuDhabi
towards a more centrist position in a diversified regional network.
BREAKING:
#Turkey
&
#UAE
to sign a cooperation agreement on marine ports! 🌊
This would be top for
#AbuDhabi
, that has been slowly but surely designing a new geopolitical strategy centered on the maritime domain and strategic infrastructures. More here:
Proud to launch new
@ECFRMena
paper mapping the
#Turkey
&
#UAE
rivalry, implications for
#Europe
& ideas to contain those. Written w/
@asliaydintasbas
, to provide both Turkish & Emirati povs in one place!
Read it here:
Thread with main findings 1/
The
#Gulf
monarchies depend on oil for economic survival,
#China
is their single most important client.
The
#Gulf
monarchies depend on external players for security survival, and they no longer trust the
#US
.
Keep this in mind and then read this ⬇️
My first for
@lobelog
on 'Tensions Rising among
#Morocco
,
#SaudiArabia
, and the
#UAE
'. The speed at which relations are deteriorating is astonishing. It is counterproductive for all involved. The latest big issue involves
#Mauritania
and sea geopolitics.
Soon we will know the extent of the
#Biden
admin hostility vs
#MbS
. But I already see people describing this as a step towards a “soft coup” removing MbS in favor of senior rivals from within the House of Saud. Can I say: hold your horses?
#SaudiArabia
#US
#OPEC
+ meeting just ended. It lasted only 13 minutes. NO extra
#oil
outside of the schedule agreed in 2020, despite sky-high prices. Not even a MENTION of the
#Russia
invasion of
#Ukraine
.
#SaudiArabia
still NOT interested in helping
#Biden
domestically or the
#EU
vs
#Russia
.
Tweeps, something is up with
#SaudiArabia
+
#UAE
with
#Morocco
. A few days ago the
#UAE
Ambassador to
#Rabat
was 'urgently' asked back to
#AbuDhabi
. Now, in isolation, this doesn't mean much but there is a bit of context which I will recap in this thread 1/
When I was in
#Riyadh
in March I told my interlocutors that the
#Russia
invasion of
#Ukraine
could be a “make-it-or-break-it” point to turn a page in
#West
-
#SaudiArabia
relations. I think we can now say it’s “break-it.” Highest level of toxicity ever w/
#US
NOW ONLINE🌍
@ECFR
is proud to launch 'Women of Middle East Network for Peacebuilding'. If you want diverse & fresh input from regional experts for your next panel or paper -- this list has you covered! Explore our database & find your expert here (1) ⤵️
Hi from Camigliatello (
#Sila
,
#Calabria
,
#Italy
) where I managed to find some peace amid the chaos of this terrible year. If you can, spend some time in nature.
#COVID19
BREAKING: Greatly influential and controversial cleric Yousuf al-Qaradawi died.
Chairman of International Union of Muslim Scholars (widely considered equivalent to
#MuslimBrotherhood
), he lived in
#Doha
(
#Qatar
) since 1977, becoming the symbol of Qatari support for the
#MB
1/
According to prominent
#SaudiArabia
analyst, there will soon be an announcement on the extension/expansion of the truce in
#Yemen
until December 2023 + signing a framework for political solution + re-starting oil export.
If confirmed, fundamental step for
#Saudi
-
#Iran
deal.
أنباء عن التوصل إلى اتفاق لتمديد الهدنة في اليمن حتى نهاية ديسمبر إضافة إلى توسيعها، وسيترافق مع التمديد التوقيع على إطار عام للحل السياسي. إضافة إلى استئناف تصدير النفط من الموانئ اليمنية وتوحيد العملة وصرف مرتبات الموظفين في مناطق الحكومة الشرعية والحوثيين.