1. As someone who is very intrigued by and studied sports psychology this next element of my trading is harder to explain but I'm going to give it a whirl. It deals with human behavior. Everyone has heard the saying....
The nuances of $SPY
Before any major correction, it usually tops mid week
It loves to bottom/pivot on Mon/Thur
Tues/Thur usually have the biggest +/- % moves
A Gap down after 2 red days go long
All based on stats I have done over yrs
$SPY gamma for rest of the month as it stands today.
That is a lot of support. Path of least resistance is ⬆️
Unless, we have catastrophic news or something
Just keeping it real
Here is what you have to ask yourself..
There was war news. Potential rate hikes by FED.
Economist talking about a crash. Bearish charts.
Is the market really going to make it that easy for you?
When has it ever been that easy?
After a little studying, here is my thots
High for month will be put in on Monday, just short of 415 on $SPY
Many will be chopped up again
August could see as low as 383-384
I know I could be wrong but I'll wait for ppl to tell me how wrong I am
I could be very wrong but I still expect more downside towards EOM
Almost feels like market wants to break 4000 to create some real panic before we get a solid bounce
As I sip on my Rum and Coke I had another thought. Don’t let anyone tell you this is a bear market. Price doesn’t drop that fast in bear markets. It’s a slow bleed. Price action this week is 100% bull market characteristic.
$SPY Gamma levels heading into OPEX. We are in neg gamma territory but have support at 440-435-430
440 neg gamma could provide nice little bounce
Resistance at 448. Rips will probably be sold.
$SPX reviewing quarterly charts and let me get something straight....
Q1 2024 broke out of a 3.5 yr consolidation period and folks are bear? I understand a correction/pullback BUT
Who knows when and if we re-test 4800's.
6. this is all just a game of psychology and human behavior in this manipulated market, is when I started to have a lot more wins. That's it. That is the Tweet!
Good grief I am struggling. Going over some things and what I look at, trying to be completely unbiased
I dont think the selling is over. If you know me, I'm a BIG Bull
but I am having a hard time seeing the bull side
I believe where we open on Monday morning will determine the week
If we get a big gap down, then I think bottom is close
If open around same area we closed today, 419-420, sub 400 comes
Max pain for tomorrow seems to be just under 3900😳
Dealers are net positive gamma (A LOT) for $SPX expiring tomorrow, so they have to sell underlying.
I guess we will see what happens.......
A big part of my trading strategy is back-testing. It is factual and cant be argued.
With that, this strategy on weekly chart will print a buy signal on Monday. Last time was March low.
100% win rate 18-0 over last 29 years
I'm telling you, expect this price action for a few more weeks
Designed to weed ppl out
Market wants you to trade emotionally. It wants you to say "fuck it" before you enter a trade
Dont do that
If action has frustrated you this week, then you probably NGMI
We will get 2 strong days then you will go long
We will get 2 weak days then you will short the hole
Many will get weeded out with all the chop
You will have to earn your keep
If we close somewhere around 415-416 on SPY...
Then I'd expect an inside day tomorrow
Wednesday re-test of 419-420
👆👆 That is where I open Big short position....
Wow, 6K followers. Seemed like I was just at 5K not to long ago.
Thanks. My only goal is to help and provide a different angle to approaching market.
I truly want everyone to win. Love and Peace!✌️
If $SPY closes month out tomorrow > 405
Then BIG sell probably comes next month from around 438.
I'm already seeing seasonality charts talking about how historically September is a down month
But doesn't mean it cant go up 1st.....
It’s with great sadness that my sons friend, Jackson, left this earth 1 week ago. He fought hard. We celebrate his life this Saturday. Toro will be back soon! Thanks for all the DM’s, much appreciated. Peace and Love!
Another beautiful sunny day☀️
I'm short $SPY and $AAPL via 3/4 puts
Maybe I win or maybe its bull fuel, either way it's just a transaction
Going to the golf course👋
I'm flat into tomorrow, unless something changes, I still plan to short around 455 for a trip back down to 443
This time I think it happens a bit faster, Friday morning
Over next few days they will make market look real scary. Lots of 🩸
They want to create fear and uncertainty. Usually happens before a rally.
Focus on execution. Don't be timid. Its just a business transaction.
Emotions come when you risk to much!
I really do believe that we are no where near a bottom
BUT I do think that next leg down happens when we least expect it
We need to see "bear market over" headlines
I feel like it happens when FED pauses rate hikes in January
Be ready!
Powell speech today was very bullish. So market is going to try and shake out those weak hands by breaking 4000 level.
Then we go back and resume strong bull market into EOY