Took Air India from New York to Delhi. What a change—extremely friendly and courteous cabin staff. The flight even arrived an hour early. They do need newer aircraft but understandably that will take time. A big privatization success story in the making.
Those who thought PM
@narendramodi
is not a reformist PM must be stunned by the reforms of last 2 weeks. The PM has brought growth & development friendly changes that were due for more than two decades in: Medical Education, Agriculture & Labor Laws. (1/4)
Kudos to PM
@narendramodi
for another truly landmark reform. Many of the reforms in higher education that I had pushed when at NITI and wrote about in op-Eds and the long chapter on higher Ed in
#IndiaUnlimited
have found a place in NEP. So satisfying!
I wholeheartedly welcome the approval of the National Education Policy 2020! This was a long due and much awaited reform in the education sector, which will transform millions of lives in the times to come!
#NewEducationPolicy
Last two Chief Economic Advisors under UPA, K Basu and R Rajan, both supported even the entry of foreign retailers in Agri marketing. They have now changed their position. Are they right? Here is my detailed critique of critics of the new laws.
How should the government respond to the farmer protests? Ideally, it should not respond at all. This is a reform with much upside and no downside for the farmer. Also, any rollback will only encourage vested interests to rise up against other reforms.
Kudos to former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh for giving an unqualified thumbs-up to India's resounding success in forging a consensus at the G20. It is heartening to see his act of bipartisanship in this great achievement of the country.
It is always invigorating to meet with and listen to PM
@narendramodi
. He told me about the transformation under way through Gati-Shakti and numerous other initiatives. We also discussed many policy issues. Thank you Prime Minister!
Indeed, a watershed moment! These are reforms economists have sought for one to two decades. So glad the opposition was unable to defeat them despite taking recourse to all kinds of spurious arguments.
A watershed moment in the history of Indian agriculture! Congratulations to our hardworking farmers on the passage of key bills in Parliament, which will ensure a complete transformation of the agriculture sector as well as empower crores of farmers.
PM
@narendramodi
announces another HUGE reform by exposing the top civil service to competition through lateral entry. Hope India’s best minds will rise to the occasion and come forward to serve. They are the key to the success of the reform.
A sad race to the bottom has begun. If loan waivers would fundamentally alleviate farmers’ plight, waivers would be a welcome step. But if after 70 years of independence, farmers remain in distress, we need to seek different solutions.
Amazing progress on vaccination by India. As proportion of adult population, as of Nov 24 ‘21
At least one jab: 82%
Both jabs: 44%
Total Jabs: 1.19 billion
At current rate, by Dec 31 ‘21
At least one: 89%
Both: 60%
Total jabs: 1.4 billion
Wow!!
Indira Gandhi nationalized all coal mines in 1973. Since then this state monopoly has remained subject to license-permit raj. The PM has finally taken the first major step to unshackle it.
Thank you Rajasthan for rejecting the road to financial anarchy and ruin. The new government must now restore financial stability. The politics of giveaways must now give way to the economics of growth, jobs and genuine prosperity.
journey away from the Nehru model has been slow because socialist-era patronage produced intellectuals who, as educators, have continued to hardwire the future generations of bureaucrats and politicians in the old ideas. That brings obstacles at every step.
130 crore Indians have spoken. They want the New India of PM
@narendramodi
. India lost its first opportunity for transformation in 2004. Not this time. I can now look forward to a poverty free and prosperous India in my lifetime. BOLD reforms await.
In labor, four new codes replace 29 antiquated labor laws. The new codes reduce inspector raj and compliance burden, create superior environment for the creation of well-paid jobs & growth of the formal sector, and empower women to do night shifts. (4/4)
In agriculture, one new law frees the farmer to sell his produce where he wants, to whom he wants; another frees him to sell produce to processors and exporters at an assured price; and a third creates greater certainty of prices and storage of produce. (3/4)
In medical education, the Parliament passed National Commission for Homeopathy Bill and National Commission for Indian System of Medicine Bill. Simultaneously, the government replaced Medical Council of India by National Medical Commission. (2/4)
Precise calculations:
18+ pop: 940m
70%: 658m
Fully vaccinated: 53.3m
To reach 70%, vaccinate 604.7m
Of these 200.06m have 1 dose
200.06m need 1 dose & 404.64m need 2 doses
Total doses needed: 1009.34m
Days remaining till 31/12: 189
Doses per day needed: 5.34
Finally a story on India in the New York Times based on facts. Kudos to
@KeithBradsher
for his brilliant, well-researched piece. Business journalist get India a lot better than authors from the world of fiction. A must read story:
A pathbreaking reform, championed by the Three Year Action Agenda of
@NITIAayog
that I piloted, becomes reality under PM
@narendramodi
. Nine professionals will soon be joint secretaries in GoI, thanks to lateral entry just introduced.
Have economists advising Congress thought through the inconsistencies to which simultaneous pursuit of transferring Rs. 6,000 to bottom 20% and giving basic income of Rs. 12,000 to each family gives rise?
In the last four years, Prime Minister
@narendramodi
has successfully introduced structural reforms in virtually all areas. So wide has been the range that only highlights can fit in a newspaper column. My article in ToI today:
Here is my article in BStandard arguing why critics are wrong in claiming: 1 DeMo failed in fight against corruption because all money came back 2 it knocked down 2% of GDP & 3 It destroyed 1.5 million jobs. All false claims.
During June 21-25, India administered 6.4 million jabs per day. If this rate can be maintained, we can comfortably vaccinate 68 to 70% of above 18 population by December 31. That would restore normalcy of life & minimize the impact of a possible 3rd wave.
India’s vaccination count reached 4.3 million on April 5 2021. Very encouraging, indeed. Reaching 5 million jabs a day and maintaining that pace should be the bottom line goal. At that pace, nearly all above 18 in urban India can be vaccinated in 4 months.
The years should be 2003 to 2010. The difference was inheritance. PMs Rao and Vajpayee did massive reforms. As a result, Vajpayee handed PM Singh an economy that was already growing 8%. The opposite was the case with what Singh handed PM Modi.
@APanagariya
Sr what is behind the High growth between 2004 to 2011. And what is the difference between this 8 years of economics and 2004 to 2011 economics?
A 48 km long Bimbisar Wall erected around Rajgir by Bimbisar 2600 years ago. Bimbisar lives the same time as Gautam Buddha. Believe it or not the wall stands today!
In its lead editorial of oct 23 ‘21, Economist called 2010s India’s lost decade of growth. But India grew 7% during that decade, second only to China’s 7.7%. Who would dare fact check the editors of the Economist? Indian media is not far behind.
PM
@narendramodi
's record on reforms now rivals those of PMs Rao & Vajpayee and surpasses that of PM Singh. On top, his reforms have been politically far more challenging than those by predecessors. Check out here for yourself:
Update as on 18 Dec ‘21
India
At least one jab: 824m (87.7% of adults)
Two jabs: 502m (57.7% of adults)
USA
At least one jab: 241m (85% of adults)
Two jabs: 204m (72.4% of adults)
By end ‘21, total jabs in India will cross 1.45 billion
👍👍
Amazing progress on vaccination by India. As proportion of adult population, as of Nov 24 ‘21
At least one jab: 82%
Both jabs: 44%
Total Jabs: 1.19 billion
At current rate, by Dec 31 ‘21
At least one: 89%
Both: 60%
Total jabs: 1.4 billion
Wow!!
Celebrating 88th birthday of Prof J Bhagwati at Tamarind in NYC. As usual, he tells one joke after another to keep us all laughing. And he says 88 is two infinities standing upright just as he does!!
A brilliant piece by
@nayyardhiraj
on Modi the reformist PM. If Modi wins a third term, the fruits of his reforms would be widely visible, unlike Rao and Vajpayee. “Then, he will be in a league of his own,” concludes Nayyar. A must read
OPS, caste census, so-called right to health, and urban job guarantee scheme have all bitten dust. The voter is way smarter than that and demands a corruption-free government that would promote law and order and real economic progress.
Having just become the world’s 5th largest economy, India is now in a crucial phase in which it will soon become the 3rd largest. Then, 2 of the world’s 3 largest will be developing countries and 3 out of 4 largest in Asia.
A heart warming story to share. I came to deliver the C D Deshmukh Lecture at the RBI and am now taking a morning flight to Delhi. The RBI extended me the courtesy of a Protocol officer to help me with security check at the airport.(1/3)
Disturbed to learn that the former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh has caught Covid-19 infection. He is an inspiration and an iconic figure for those dabbling in Indian economic policies and reforms. Wishing for his speedy recovery and full restoration of health.
Kudos to India for reaching 100 million vaccine shots faster than any other country:
India: 85 days
USA: 89 days
China: 103 days
We must ramp up production to make 5 million jabs per day feasible.
Thank you Prime Minister for staying firm on the good governance and development message. That is what the Indian voter wants most. We lost far too many decades after independence and can afford to lose no more.
We bow to the Janta Janardan.
The results in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan indicate that the people of India are firmly with politics of good governance and development, which the
@BJP4India
stands for.
I thank the people of these states for their unwavering…
Here is a true hero of Indian industry: Rajiv Bajaj. If you want to know what Indian industry genuinely should be, listen to his interview in the video embedded in this story in its entirety.
Would China engage in hostilities if India were a $10 trillion economy? Unlikely. Strategically, forge close ties with USA, Japan & Australia. Economically, forge FTA with UK, EU, Canada and possibly USA to get to $10 tr fast.
If New Industrial Policy of 1991 was the first step towards ending socialism, Strategic Disinvestment Policy of 2021 will be the last. We need a Privatization Ministry to execute this supremely important project.
Activist short sellers form a murky world. US Justice Department is investigating 30 such firms including Hindenburg. But the “success” in the Adami episode will entice US short sellers to go after other Indian firms. Transparency is the best defense.
At the first Governing Council meeting of
@NITIAayog
PM
@narendramodi
had appointed a task force on agricultural development. In Dec 2015, that TF, headed by me, had recommended the reforms just enacted. See Sec 4.2 of this report:
India’s current vaccination rate of 3 to 4 million per day is simply not good enough. We need to up our game to achieve daily rate of at least 5 to 6 million jabs. Not clear whether the cause is hesitation or insufficient production.
A hard-hitting response to the editorial by the Economist vilifying PM
@narendramodi
by J. Bhagwati,
@krishna_pravin
and me. We conclude by telling the Economist that with this editorial it has descended into the post truth world.
Delighted that genuine cash transfers to the poor have made their debut beginning with this Budget. This is something I have advocated for more than a decade. Gradually cash transfers must expand to replace some of our costly in-kind transfers.
Mr. P. Chidambaram recently questioned my well-documented claim that PM Modi’s record on reforms matches those of PMs Vajpayee and Rao and far exceeds that of PM Singh. Here is why he couldn’t be more wrong:
Indian economy surprises our pundits yet again. The average of what they predicted for July-Sept 2024 quarter was 6.7% growth. The economy delivered 7.6%. I hope they learn that India is now on a 7% plus growth trajectory.
An exhilarating experience listening to the talk by AP Chief Minister on Technology and Governace. Doubtful that any state in the United States is doing what Shri
@ncbn
is doing in Andhra to prepare for the 4th Industrial Revolution.
A wonderful enriching experience to interact with such bright young minds at the School of International & Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York. The older generation can learn a lot from the younger one. The energy & innovative ideas of the youth can be quite refreshing.
Fantastic budget. 1. Much awaited personal income tax reform done. 2. Capex up to 3.3% of GDP from less than 2% 3 years ago. 3. Fiscal consolidation continues with fiscal deficit down to 5.9% from 6.4%. 4. Some correction to tariff inversion too.
India reaches within striking distance of a top 50 rank in Ease of Doing Business rankings of the World Bank—something few believed possible when PM
@narendramodi
first announced the ambitious goal:
Pitfalls of universalization of MSP:
1. Trillions of rupees of additional burden on the taxpayer
2. Reversal of diversification into fruits & veg et al
3. Violation of WTO obligations
4. Regressive redistribution effect: bulk of MSP to well-off farmers
S. Korean urban population went from 28.8% in 1966 to 85.7% in 1995 & Chinese from 19% in 1981 to 51.3% in 2011. Both rose to upper middle income during these phases. Read what lessons this has for India
For 4 years, 2014-15 to 2017-18, India grew annually 7.7%. The fall beginning with Q1-2018-19 is rooted in slow response to NPAs and resulting stress in financial markets. That will need a fix. Beyond that nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy.
@APanagariya
I do agree with you, Sir, that we should give benefit of the doubt to AMJ Q
But Indian GDP rate was falling consistently in every QTR from Q1 2019 onwards..!
I think Covid has only coupled the indian GDP issue, the real culprits r Demon & GST, and these were handmade problems!!
The Gujarat Model continues to deliver with 9% growth during 2012-13 to 2015-16. Growth has brought poverty down among all groups, rural, urban, Dalits, tribals and Muslims. Top 1% not the only beneficiaries.
Budget positives: a. All new transfers—cash to farmers, tax cut & pension for informal workers—are all DBT and so no leakage; b. IT rates down to two: 20% and 30%; c. Custom duty on some machines imported by exporters down; d. Slippage in fiscal def minimal
Part I of economic stimulus package of PM
@narendramodi
focuses on MSMEs, perhaps because this is where the bulk of non-agricultural employment is. My take on the package:
Poverty reduction requires wealth creation which is rarely possibly without an increase in inequality between those who create wealth and the rest. While some love to sound an alarm over such inequality, people at large rarely resent wealth creators.
So the book is out. Here is a picture of it from W. H. Smith at IGI Airport in Delhi. My wife who just landed there sent it a few minutes ago. Truly excited! Hope you all read it.
Poor vision due to lack of access to eyeglasses is the largest unaddressed disability. 550 million suffer this fate in India alone. We need a mission to provide eyeglasses to all. This can be done for as little as Rs. 200 per pair.
For a staggering one and a half millennia, India was the world's largest economy and, until 1870, one of its two largest. With 3rd-largest-economy status within India's grasp, is the world moving back to the "old normal"? My take:
Delighted my one-person poll did better than any exit poll. I had said it will be a repeat of 2014. End results: BJP got absolute majority and NDA comfortably crossed 300 seats. One could not have been more accurate! See India fully transform in next 5 years
Current vaccine production of 70-75 million units per month and even 200 million units planned by July is too little to escape a third Covid wave. We must invest NOW to push Covaxin production to 500 million units per month by July:
Read how the pursuit of self sufficiency morphed into investment licensing, import controls, small-scale industries reservation and price and distribution controls, holding the Indian economy back for four decades.
had lost his grandfather in the 1971 war. “Did that not deter you from joining the navy,” I asked. “All the more reason for me to join, sir,” he answered. I was left speechless. My only thought now is that India is in safe hands. (3/3)
Capabilities of the latest AI software is truly amazing. I asked ChatGPT to write a poem on Free Trade in the Alfred Tennyson style. See what it produced:
In my assessment, all of the current forecasts underestimate India’s GDP growth for 2022-23. I expected the growth rate to cross the 8% mark this year. Let us see if my optimism proves right!
The young are not the only first-time voters. 50 years after becoming eligible, I am excited to be voting for the first time this election season. Can’t wait for the day Delhi votes!!
Pharma companies object to vaccine-patent waiver on the grounds that it won’t translate in actual production by other manufacturers. Well, in that case, the waiver will lead to no actual patent violations and they need not object.
Fall out from the article by A Subramanian is not limited to hurting India’s economic prospects. It also gives two successful FMs failing grades & undermines the chances of younger outside economists to serve the nation:
A cheaper currency will help rebalance India’s trade deficit. It will also give greater incentive for goods production, which hold better prospects for well-paid jobs for the low skilled than do services. My article in Foreign Policy:
Of all the initiatives by PM
@narendramodi
, Swachh Bharat will have the greatest long term impact on the lives of 1.3 billion Indians. 2019 will be the year of 150th birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi and the year to celebrate SBM
A barrage of criticisms led to the derailment of a well-functioning vaccination policy. The resulting failure led the critics to take a U-turn. Thankfully, reason has prevailed and the PM has restored the old policy.
What an amazing accomplishment: 23.3 million vaccines administered in ONE DAY! Yet another example of PM
@narendramodi
doing projects on scale! Congratulations to all those who made it happen.
A great victory for reforms, for the health sector and above all medical profession. The caravan of reforms continues to move apace under the leadership of PM
@narendramodi
Personally delighted to see this reform move:
During the year long farmers agitation, Pandits uniformly predicted decimation of BJP in future elections. But people including farmers in much of India understood that the PM has their interest at heart. They want more, not less reforms.
A new era in medical education begins with the launch of the National Medical Commission. A reform we initiated in 2016
@NITIAayog
begins its journey. A big change in medical education awaits in the next 5-10 years.
With the new Cabinet in place, time for a new package of reforms. UGC Act 1956 must go; personal income tax must be rationalized and simplified; and privatization of banks and CPSEs, esp Air India, must take the front seat.
Credit belongs solely to the leadership of the country. I only happened to reach the same conclusion as they did when I thought about what would best serve the nation’s interest given its circumstances at the time. So thanks to PM
@narendramodi
and FM
@nsitharaman
In 2018, credit by banks was just 50% of GDP in India compared with 158% in China, 141% in S Korea, 112% in Thailand, 81% in Chile, 66% in S Africa & 61% in Brazil.
@RMantri
and I argue that India needs to allow corporations into banking
Parliament passes bills on Homeopathy and Indian systems of medicine drafted during my days at
@NITIAayog
. With NMC Act already passed, we will now have a fully reformed medical education system. Thank u
@IasAlok
Sumant
@urvashi01
I hate to inflict one more of this by ChatGPT but it is simply too good not to share. I asked the AI software to write an ode to India’s economic reforms. I was blown away by how it described the policy change followed by it’s impact.
Prof
@nandinigupta201
& I explain why india must sell PSUs to those who can run them the best. The picture below is worth a thousand words. With this performance of even listed PSUs should public money be spent on PSUs? Full article at