Tom Marzec-Manser @tmarzecmanser Twitter profile

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom still likely making ~€100m/day on #natgas sales to Europe, broadly in line with a year ago, and certainly still more than in pre-covid times. And thats even as volumes sold are just 25% of what they were.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom basically saying it will not take the #natgas turbine for NordStream1. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Global natural gas prices will likely rally hard on Monday as markets readjust to this latest #Gazprom development. The closure of #NordStream1 reduces overall Russian pipeline flows yet further and will make balancing supply & demand this winter all the more difficult. #natgas

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Clear signs emerging that German industry is cutting #natgas demand. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Looks like Europe’s newest #LNG terminal, EemsEnergyTerminal, delivered its first #natgas flows to the Dutch grid on Thursday. Just under 6mcm. Renom for Friday suggests this could climb to 16mcm. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Poland’s #natgas stores are v full and March was a record #LNG import month. Pipe imports from Germany are also currently high. PGNiG had very low buyer-led reliance on Gazprom in Jan with no security of supply concerns, suggesting it will be able to manage the Yamal cut. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

If Brussels halts #NordStream2 due to an escalation in #Ukraine , it is likely #natgas & #power prices will remain very expensive for years. And the #EU ’s climate ambition will be in taters, as #coal remains the go-to fuel of choice, again for years. Tough choices ahead.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

High #natgas prices driven by Europe’s pivot to #LNG over Russia vols is not just an issue for Europe’s economy. Its reverberating around the globe and compounding blackouts and therefore social unrest across Southern Asia. I feel these two issues are not connected often enough.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

US #LNG has now overtaken combined Russian pipe gas + LNG in supplies to Europe in September, @ICISOfficial data shows. Norway remains the largest supplier of #natgas even with annual maintenance taking place. #TTF #ONGT 🇳🇴🇺🇸🇷🇺🇩🇿🇬🇧🇪🇺🇶🇦

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Europe’s #natgas supply in July was just 10% #Gazprom pipe, with 3.7bcm delivered. Another 5% was Russia #LNG from Yamal. US LNG covered 13% of supply, while Norway pipe was #1 supplier at 27%. @ICISOfficial data. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

EU #natgas demand in Sep ends 14% below the 5-yr average! Although, include Britain and its only 12.5% below. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Flows of #natgas via #GIPL are GO as Poland exports to Lithuania! 🇵🇱🇱🇹 The start of the new line ends the isolation of the Baltic States & Finland from rest of the #EU pipeline grid. Until today the Baltics could only import pipe from Russia or via global #LNG shipments. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#NordStream1 and #NordStream2 become in-operable just days before #BalticPipe #natgas starts. The location of the NS2 leak v near to where the #natgas pipes cross. Symbolic to say the least. For Central Europe (esp DE and PL) its Twilight for Russia, Dawn for Norway. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

European #natgas demand really is astonishingly low right now. Incredibly mild weather and #TTF price sensitivity working together here. Opening days of 2023 about **38%** below the five-year average. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Biggest #LNG course change ever? Hellas Diana went half-way across Pacific before reversing back through Panama Canal. It should reach UK on 18-Jan. The vessel loaded from Corpus Christi on 28-Nov. It U-turned just before X-mas when #TTF spiked. #shiptracking @ICISOfficial

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

A small reminder: #Gazprom continues to hold at least 35mcm/d of booked #natgas capacity on the Russia->Ukraine Sudzha point which goes unused everyday. And the lack of that use goes largely unquestioned because Russia is successfully diverting attention away with turbines. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

India #LNG imports in September were just 1.3mt, a **SEVEN-YEAR** low, @ICISOfficial data show. That’s demand destruction. #natgas #India 🇮🇳

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

A protracted period of 33mcm/d flows on NordStream1 will likely limit Europe’s ability to inject adequate #natgas vols into storage which could have consequences on winter supply. Euro govs will further need to incentivize demand reductions, especially from the industrial sector.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Context: #Gazprom has been supplying ~300mcm/d to EU & Moldova recently. If Sokhranovka cant run its usual 24mcm/d and the #natgas cant be rerouted to Sudzha or even empty Yamal-Europe, then net flows could fall 8%. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom says it is technologically impossible – based on Russian flow scheme – to shift the #natgas set for Sokhranovka to Sudzha. #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Nothing to see here, just your standard €63.445/MWh traded range on #TTF #natgas today. High of €198.56/MWh, low of €135.115/MWh. Keep in mind this 20-year old market had never been ABOVE €35.60/MWh until July-21.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

I’m going to go out on a limb: it’s probably aggressive optimisation by Polish #natgas buyer PGNiG and not seller Gazprom. PL #LNG send-out is super high, storage is very full. Reverse flows from DE pretty high in recent days too. #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

EU+GB #natgas demand destruction in the seven days to 6-December was 10% below the 5-year average, early @ICISOfficial Analytics data shows. November demand destruction was 22%. October was 24%. September was 12%. Welcome to the first cold-snap test. #TTF #ONGT 🥶

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

German #natgas demand in the last few days has risen above 2020 and 2021 on the back of some cooler weather. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Data from @ICISOfficial show there's an empty #Gazprom -run #LNG vessel that’s just arrived near to the Gazprom-run Portovaya LNG plant (the one that did all the flaring & is v near the start of #NordStream1 ). A second empty Gazprom-run LNG vessel also entering the Baltic Sea. 1/2

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

21-June-22: Rock-bottom Russia #natgas flows to Europe today and likely for next week with TurkStream offline for maintenance. #Gazprom delivering just over 100mcm/d. 3years ago it was about 500mcm/d. Will be even tighter when NS1 is offline next month for its works. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

And there we have it. In fact, #NordStream1 #natgas flows at a 32mcm/d rate in the last hour. The key question is now, for how long? Will the Canadian turbine get re-installed in the coming days/weeks and so we go back to 66mcm/d? #TTF #ONGT #Gazprom

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

IMHO: No one is being ordered to pay in roubles. They’re being ordered to change the bank into which they deposit their euros or dollars. To a bank account which will then facilitate the conversion into roubles. So saying “we’re not going to pay in roubles” clarifies nothing.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Restart of Freeport #LNG delayed to end-November, with full operation expected in March. Bullish for #TTF #natgas , while bearish for #HenryHub . October was the previous partial restart date of the 15mtpa (21bcma) plant. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Talk of Euro #natgas supply risk ebbing away as storage fullness rises and #LNG continues to be shipped, fails to recognise this is just the start of a multi-year cycle of tightness. @ICISOfficial Q1’24 #TTF not sliding as much as Q1’23 as next year risk comes into focus. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

European #natgas demand was 10% below 5-year average in August. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

3 years

#Gazprom books much less monthly #natgas capacity for December. Almost nothing at Mallnow (having been recently ~30mcm/d). Only 17mcm/day at Velke Kapusany, suggesting Ukraine -> Slovakia could drop from recent 95mcm to 93mcm. So we’re kinda 32mcm/d down. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

In the last 3 months 68% of all Freeport #LNG exports have gone to the EU+UK #natgas market @ICISOfficial data show. If the plant is only offline for 3 weeks, that’s almost 1mt of production gone from the Atlantic. 3 weeks seems optimistic, imho. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

27-Feb-22: Transit #natgas flows via Ukraine continue at the full 109mcm/d that #Gazprom has under contract. GasDay26 flows met noms. Mallnow again flipping intraday between east & west flow with 5mcm sent net on Sat. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom on the turbines, again... #natgas #TTF

Gazprom

@GazpromEN

2 years

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The most comprehensive quarterly review of the global #LNG market you could possibly find! All for free from @ICISOfficial . #ONGT #natgas #TTF All 18 pages over on LinkedIn.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

16-Jun-22: NordStream1 #natgas flows dip lower at the open of gasday-16, broadly inline with #Gazprom ’s new stated volume of 67mcm/d. Onward NEL flows in particular being crushed. No increase via Ukraine. Eni says Italy noms for gasday-16 ‘partially confirmed’. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

NordStream1 #natgas flows drop to almost zero in 3rd hour of gas-day 11 July, for annal maintenance. Until the start of gas-day 22 July #Gazprom deliveries to Europe will be rock-bottom at just 74mcm/d, assuming recent rates via Ukraine and TurkStream remain steady. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Now clear #Gazprom bringing African #LNG into the Baltic. Likely to supply Kaliningrad, rather than to help startup Portovaya. Laden FSRU Marshal Vasilevskiy still circling outside the exclave too. Energy Integrity has come from Cameroon. @ICISOfficial #shiptracking #natgas #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Making progress. Month-to-date September pan-European #natgas demand about 16% below 5-year average. Saving about 138mcm/d. We need the saving to be about 300mcm/d in peak winter to achieve the EU’s 15% goal. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom ’s two biggest European #natgas customers today, 17-Jun: Germany’s #Uniper has received only around 40% of noms. Italy’s #Eni expects to receive only around 50% of noms. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

A first insight as to whether #natgas will be flowing along NordStream1 on the morning of 21-July could come on 20 July, when day-ahead nominations begin to be published. It’s not always accurate, but it will nevertheless be worth watching! #Gazprom #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

EU+UK net #natgas storage is back inside the five-year range! There is light at the end of this winter’s tunnel! #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

ICIS NBP #natgas is about €71/MWh cheaper than ICIS TTF as all that #LNG landing in Britain can’t easily make its way to mainland NW Europe. The Pyrenees is also bottleneck for cargoes landing in Spain, with ICIS PVB €36/MWh cheaper than the Dutch hub. @ICISOfficial #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

3 years

Natural gas, natural gas, Flowing all the way. Oh what fun it is to trade The TTF today, hey! Natural gas, natural gas, Flowing all the way. Oh what fun it is to trade The TTF today! 🎅🤪

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

BAFA prices imply Russian #natgas into Germany is much cheaper than #TTF , as does Uniper’s haemorrhaging of cash. So how does capping THAT price specifically solve anything? The issue is the scarcity of #Gazprom volumes, not its price. Or have I missed something?

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

A recent analysis by @ICISOfficial , also showed that in five out of seven scenarios, Europe could head into the winter of 2023-24 with gas storage sites at only 65 per cent of capacity, the lowest level at that point since at least 2016, when records began.

FT Energy

@ftenergy

2 years

Europe’s energy crisis set to linger for years, industry warns

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The latest @ICISOfficial map on the European #petchem and #fertz cut-backs due to the high #natgas price. #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

European #natgas benchmark @ICISOfficial #TTF ends 16-Jan-23 at lowest price in 16 months. €54.95/MWh equivalent to $17.47/MMBtu. #LNG #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Day-ahead @ICISOfficial #TTF collapsed even further on Tuesday to end at just over €80/MWh! Last time we saw this price #NordStream1 was still running at ~85% of cap. Don’t let that lull you into a false-sense of security: month-ahead (Nov) still around €164/MWh. #ONGT #natgas

Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The benchmark @ICISOfficial #TTF Day-ahead ended Mon at ~€127/MWh, down 20% from Fri. It’s the lowest DA #natgas close since late-June when #NordStream1 was still running at 40% capacity & delivering ~65mcm/d. Euro storage fullness has risen 32p-points to 88% in that time.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Worldwide #LNG demand in 2022 is forecast by @ICISOfficial to reach 396.1mt, up 5.5% YoY. Global LNG supply is expected to be 385.9mt, up 1.7%. Watch out Europe, we’re in for a 10.2mt shortfall. Granular, market-level LNG S&D on a 24-month rolling horizon. #natgas #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

GasDay 3-Jan: #Gazprom #natgas flows to NW-Euro could be lowest in over 3yrs (outside planned maintenance) down 36% since start of Dec. BUT Euro storage on the up over holidays and #NBP balancing price crashed to zero on NYD, forcing cut in Norway production. #TTF #ONGT 1/2

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The latest free insight from @ICISOfficial about how the falling prompt #natgas price is leading to a #fertz ramp-up.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom ’s decision to further cut capacity on NordStream1 will have seismic ramifications for the European and global #natgas market. With flows dropping to 67mcm/d it will be increasingly hard for storages to be refilled ahead of the winter. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

EU #natgas demand in first half of Nov a whopping 26% below the 5-yr-ave, early @ICISOfficial data show. In Oct it was 24% below and in Sep 13% below. EC had called on 15% through winter. That’s some saving! #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom books extra #natgas Day-ahead capacity via #Ukraine at Velke to Slovakia, adding a further 6.5mcm bringing total to 86.7mcm. It already had 69.1mcm/d under LTC and 11.1mcm/d purchased under monthly. DA nom currently at 78mcm. See below on the buy-side reasons. #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Two deals accounting for 208mt of #LNG (292bcm of #natgas ) struck in three days. And still not a European buyer in sight…. Ambiguity over #TTF pricing really not helping dudes… 🤦‍♂️

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Putin on NordStream1 natgas flow possibly falling to 30mcm/d from 26 July. (Google Translate)

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom delivered around 158mcm of #natgas on 14 June, down from 440mcm exactly a year earlier. The cut in flows/capacity on NordStream1 the cause of the latest push down. #TTF #ONGT

Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The drop on NordStream1 means Russian daily #natgas pipe flows are now almost 2/3 lower than they were a year ago. The EU wanted a 2/3 year on year cut, which was never going to happen, but a 2/3 cut in daily flows is still a big deal. #ONGT #TTF #Gazprom

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Neither IGB (3bcma) or Baltic Pipe (10bcma) bring extra #natgas volumes to Europe. Neither expected to be at full capacity soon either. They de-bottleneck a bit. But these are not major game changers given the loss of Nord Stream 1 (<55bcma) and other #Gazprom vols. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

I used the ICIS #LNG contracts database, our 24-month supply forecast and our cargo/trade tracking data, as well as good old human intel, to create this theoretical ‘Where could Europe’s extra LNG come from’ Sankey for the @ftenergy @ICISOfficial

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom produced 12.6bcm of #natgas in the first two-weeks of September, a drop of 38% drop year on year. #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Danish Geological Survey says the seismic activity resembles blasts, not earthquakes. #TTF #natgas #NordStream1

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

Today’s my 15yr @ICISOfficial work anniversary. Hired by @PatrickHeren just before he sold-up. 1st 6yrs: Euro power, then CO2, then gas reporting. Then 5yrs at helm of ESGM. Last 4yrs global LNG analysis, then back to Euro gas analysis, before heading up global gas analytics!😊

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Quite the week in natgas with NS1 offline and Milan conf. But also 1st week of new school year and my youngest starts for the v 1st time. So Im proud to be staying home with my boys and having this as my #1 priority this week. I wouldnt miss that for gas and LNG. #FamilyFirst

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

🚨Physical #natgas flows on #NordStream1 have restarted! In the first hour the RATE is 48mcm/d. It should ramp-up more as the day progresses. The nom for the whole day is 65mcm, which is 40% of the pipe’s capacity and in line with pre-maintenance deliveries. #TTF #ONGT #Gazprom

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

3 years

Yikes. On 31-Oct, zero westbound #natgas nom at Mallnow along Yamal-Europe, so again in physical reverse flow mode back to Poland from Germany. Velke Kapusany nom into Slovakia from Ukraine just 62mcm, lowest since mid-March. Happy Halloween. 🎃 #Gazprom #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

10 months

If Australia’s North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Gorgon #LNG export plants all went offline at the same time due to strike action that would be an equivalent to 10% of global LNG production cut. Not desirable in a tight #natgas market going into winter! Little wonder #TTF is up.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

EU #natgas demand in Dec was 13% below the 5-yr ave, early @ICISOfficial data shows. Mild Xmas partially offsetting that cold snap. DE: 7% below ave IT: 18% below FR: 8% below NL: 16% below ES: 23% below and GB: 3% below #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

#TTF front month closing below €100/MWh for only the second time since mid-June, which was just before NS1 started to reduce #natgas flows. The only other sub-100 was on Halloween. Windy mild and the Xmas demand lull with high storage and plenty of #LNG driving the bears. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Unsurprisingly, #Gazprom close to filling domestic Russia #natgas storage much earlier than usual. Target for this year was 72.662bcm. In 2021, stores were not refilled until 8-Nov. What happens to production once stores are full?? #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Assuming the last 3days of June are aligned to earlier in the week, it looks like #Germany #natgas demand for the Industry/Power sector is tanking. And looking at German power-gen data, gas-fired output is fairly similar YoY in June, so industry seems to be the key driver. #TTF 🇩🇪

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Gazprom says #NordStream1 #natgas will drop to 33mcm/d on Wednesday. That’s half current rates and 20% of the entire pipe’s capacity. #TTF #ONGT (Google Translate)

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

26-Feb-22: As buyer demand for LTC #natgas rises, #Gazprom to fully use all long-term capacity via 🇺🇦Ukraine again, with 109mcm nomed. Of that 80mcm to Velke. Westbound net 2mcm flow at Mallnow on GasDay 25, which is first vols into 🇩🇪 along Yamal-Europe pipe since 20-Dec. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Gazprom comment on PGNiG and Bulgargaz #natgas supply to Poland and Bulgaria.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

I present the free 2022 @ICISOfficial #LNG Global Supply & Demand Outlook! In the report we look to highlight how every part of the market is set and how, when each is considered, this impacts the global balance. Over on Linked In. #natgas #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

US exports of #LNG to Europe in March look set to end the month a smidge higher than in January, at 5.4mt and thus a new record. About 76% of all US exports this month, @ICISOfficial data show. #ONGT #TTF #natgas

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Did #Gazprom draw down EU-based #natgas storage in the last couple of weeks in preparation of the Germania termination??

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

10-Jan-22: #Gazprom #natgas flows to Velke holds at 27mcm/d on Mon having been there all w-end. Mallnow still 0. #LNG ship-tracking from @ICISOfficial has ~4mt as bound for west Euro in next fortnight to add to ~2.5mt already arrived this yr. We’re on for a bumper month! #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

With the renewed cut in #natgas flows along NordStream1 to just 33mcm/d, #Gazprom is now only flowing around 113mcm/d to Europe as a whole. In a normal summers day in 2019 Europe would have typically received about 450mcm/d from Russian pipe. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The benchmark @ICISOfficial #TTF Day-ahead ended Mon at ~€127/MWh, down 20% from Fri. It’s the lowest DA #natgas close since late-June when #NordStream1 was still running at 40% capacity & delivering ~65mcm/d. Euro storage fullness has risen 32p-points to 88% in that time.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

NordStream1 #natgas flows fell to a rate of 91mcm/d at 14:00 CET. Based on 12 hours of flows so far in gasday-14, flows have averaged a 108mcm/d rate. Typically it delivers 163mcm/d. In recent days its been dropping and for gasday-13 just 112mcm was shipped. #ONGT #TTF #Gazprom

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

Euro #natgas storage now – in 2023 – now fractionally percentage points fuller than in 2020, so that’s probably the highest it’s ever been for a 22nd Jan date ever. (I have data going back to 2014 inclusive, and 2020 was stand-out higher than the rest.) #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

European #natgas daily demand currently ~11% lower than 5yr-ave. So we’re saving ~80mcm/d. But an 80mcm/d saving in ave peak winter is just equivalent to 4% of daily demand. To have a 15% cut in ave peak winter daily demand we need to save ~300mcm/d. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Capping Iberian gas-to-power prices was always going to lead to an increase in Spanish #natgas consumption. Helping consumers while not helping the overall winter gas balance.

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

Free EU #natgas and #electricity 2023 outlook for you all to enjoy. @ICISOfficial

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

EU #natgas demand in October was 24% below the five-year average, @ICISOfficial data shows. In September it was 14%. Major saving driven by mild temperatures and high #TTF price. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

A reminder of how we went from ~€20/MWh to €320/MWh and then back to ~€50/MWh. #TTF #natgas #Gazprom #LNG

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Germany’s 1st #LNG shipment is on the way @ICISOfficial data shows! The Hoegh Esperanza has loaded in Spain and should reach Wilhelmshaven in less than a week. Probably ~25% of current daily Germany #natgas demand aboard. Will then remain in port as the FSRU. #ONGT #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

25-Feb-22: Russia transit #natgas flows via Ukraine set to climb 19% day-on-day, reaching 100mcm. Of that total 75mcm to Velke Kapusany in Slovakia up 27%. Gas Day24 nominations all physically delivered. #NS1 flowing normally too. #ONGT #TTF #Gazprom

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Top-notch free @ICISOfficial article from @ASabadus with input from @IcisFertDeepika , @ICISJulia & @BillBeacham on the Euro #natgas industrial demand impact from #petchem and #fertz .

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

3-Mar-22: Russia LTC #natgas remains heavily in demand. Overnight flows via Ukraine still at max of transit booking and onward to Velke nom on Thu at 83mcm. Mallnow still westward with renom on Wed at 26mcm. Looks like TurkStream flows to EU at all time-high. #TTF #Gazprom #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

July will be a super low #natgas flow month for #Gazprom , even if NordStream1 does come back online in 10days. #TTF #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

Baltic Pipe is go! At 07:00 LDN time, Norway supplying Denmark at a rate of ~6mcm/d. Noms for onward flow to Poland pretty similar. Unsurprisingly, the flows to Nybro come at the expense of throughput to Emden. This is not extra #natgas to the Euro market! #TTF #ONGT 🇳🇴🇩🇰🇵🇱

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#NordStream1 #natgas flows onward to NEL pipe (that delivers towards🇳🇱) now receiving a greater share of the 2.7mcm/hr that is coming through, than compared to before maintenance. NEL gets 1/3 whereas before it was nearly 1/5. (OPAL goes towards 🇨🇿btw.)

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

1 year

#Gazprom #natgas supplies to the EU are now just 52mcm/d, given the recent buyer-led drop in flows via both Turkey and Ukraine. #TTF spot market optimisation in play, driving throughput to a new low. Back in Jan-19 the Russian daily rate was ~500mcm/d. #ONGT

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

The halving of #NordStream1 #natgas flows to 33mcm/d (or 20% of the pipe’s capacity) will hit the EU markets at 08:00 Berlin time. It takes 2 hours for the change at Portovaya to impact rates at Greifswald. #Gazprom #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

18-Jul-22: Norway #natgas supplies to Europe breaching the 335mcm/d rate. I don’t recall ever seeing it that high. #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

#Europe imported a record 9.5mt of #LNG in Jan-22 according to ship-tracking data from @ICISOfficial . This was almost 3x the 3.2mt imported in Jan-21. It was also up 18% from previous record of 8.1mt in Mar-21. Almost a half of imports in Jan-22 came from the US. #natgas #TTF

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Tom Marzec-Manser

@tmarzecmanser

2 years

2-Mar-22: Russia #natgas flows to Europe on 1 Mar highest since 17-Dec, as westwards renoms at Mallnow (Yamal-Europe) move higher to 22mcm. Ukraine again delivers at 109mcm SoP capacity limit. For Wed, Ukraine again noms at full flow, with Velke still set to receive 83mcm. #TTF

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