Jrfortgang @throwthedamball Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Jrfortgang

@throwthedamball

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437

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471

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Football lover | R&D+Betting @PFF @sportfoliokings | Football is great, making money is good, making money from football is the Highest Good | Leveraging Tails

https://t.co/zb3hxWgjvl

Joined December 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@throwthedamball

Jrfortgang

@throwthedamball

11 months

Introducing Earned Drive Points (EDP), a new drive-level NFL metric. In a game with noisy and random results, EDP distinguishes itself by focusing on the process of drives "earning" points rather than relying on sometimes-arbitrary outcomes. Article:

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@throwthedamball

Jrfortgang

@throwthedamball

1 year

There is justice, there is poetry, I have no other words

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@throwthedamball

5 months

How often QBs face perfect coverage and their EPA on those plays

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@throwthedamball

2 years

Introducing QB decision making: execution is crucial to QB play, but how QBs set themselves up for success by throwing to right receivers is half the battle. @arjunmenon100 and I quantified QB decision making, setting up a new way to evaluate QBs Article:

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2 years

Had to do a triple take on the both axes here. Mahomes is that good.

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@throwthedamball

1 year

Top 15 CB's at preventing separation

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@throwthedamball

8 months

Through 2 weeks, how often QBs are throwing to open windows and their accuracy on those throws

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@throwthedamball

6 months

A look at how well CBs have done preventing separation (all coverage snaps included) and how often they're targeted.

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@throwthedamball

6 months

A look at the average separation a QBs receivers generate and how often QBs throw to an open man.

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@throwthedamball

7 months

CB Separation Prevented through Week 4.

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@throwthedamball

1 year

Mahomes just isn't fair

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@throwthedamball

9 months

*whispers* I think this is the ultimate Mahomes chart

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@throwthedamball

3 months

Small samples in play of course, but QB EPA when trailing in 2023

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@throwthedamball

6 months

A look at the average separation a QBs receivers generate and how often QBs throw to an open man

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@throwthedamball

6 months

When the play is perfectly covered, how often do QBs either 1) run for positive EPA or 2) engineer a throw into an open window. The sum of these 2 is what we'll call "create rate" (X axis) All the credit to @greerreNFL for this great idea

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@throwthedamball

8 months

How often and well QBs perform from a clean pocket. Excludes rollouts+scrambles+ plays where pocket is closing or tight.

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@throwthedamball

5 months

A look at how well CBs have done preventing separation (all coverage snaps included) and how often they're targeted.

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@throwthedamball

5 months

How well WRs separate (X axis) and how well they do at the catch-point/after the catch (Y axis). Note: separation does not refer to number of yards of separation, but is the average earned separation (graded on a -2 to +2 scale)

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@throwthedamball

5 months

2023 QB Time to Throw & Accuracy rate

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@throwthedamball

5 months

When the play is perfectly covered, how often do QBs either 1) run for positive EPA or 2) engineer a throw into an open window. The sum of these 2 is what we'll call "create rate" (X axis) h/t to @greerreNFL

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@throwthedamball

5 months

QB accuracy and EPA when throwing 20+ yds downfield

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@throwthedamball

7 months

CB Separation Prevented through Week 5.

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@throwthedamball

8 months

How effective CB's have been preventing separation and how often they're targeted

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@throwthedamball

5 months

How often QBs throw to their first read and their EPA on those throws

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@throwthedamball

6 months

Updating our chart on WR separation and post throw grade (Catchpoint+YAC) The Rashid Shaheed agenda is going mainstream and it won't be long before Tank Dell follows suit

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@throwthedamball

10 months

A look at how often 2022 QBs threw into tight windows (bad) and what % of those throws "threw their receivers open"

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@throwthedamball

6 months

Relative to CBs of the last 5 years, a look at how well CBs have prevented separation and how often they're targeted

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@throwthedamball

4 months

Excluding scrambles, how much separation a QBs receivers generate and how often QBs throw to open windows

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@throwthedamball

7 months

How often QBs face Perfect Coverage and their EPA on those plays

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@throwthedamball

5 months

CBs ability to prevent separation in man & zone coverage

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@throwthedamball

6 months

How often QBs throw to their first read and their EPA when doing so...can't say I expected to see Tua Tagovailoa in this spot

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@throwthedamball

10 months

Couple graphs on how often QBs throw to open receivers and their accuracy on those throws

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@throwthedamball

4 months

Final 2023 rankings for CB separation prevented and target % faced

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Jrfortgang

@throwthedamball

6 months

How often QBs have clean pockets to work with and how effective they've been throwing from them

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@throwthedamball

11 months

2022 CB Separation allowed in Man vs Zone: Some initial takeaways: 1) Sauce vs Stingley contrast is wild 2) Chiefs young corners in man👀 3) Patrick Peterson still has it?

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@throwthedamball

5 months

How often a WR faces single coverage and their separation on those plays.

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@throwthedamball

5 months

Updated WR chart showing how well WRs are separating on all routes + their efficiency at the catchpoint/after the catch

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@throwthedamball

6 months

2023 QB accuracy and EPA on deep passes (20+yds downfield)

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@throwthedamball

5 months

2023 QB EPA and accuracy when throwing deep. Makes last night's CHI gameplan all the more puzzling.

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4 months

Final 2023 rankings for how well WRs separated and how they performed at the Catchpoint + YAC

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@throwthedamball

2 years

I'm not even sure where to begin here...

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@throwthedamball

5 months

When Linebackers are in primary coverage, how often they are targeted and their percentile in preventing separation

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@throwthedamball

4 months

When a Linebacker is in primary coverage, how often they are targeted and how well they've performed preventing separation

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@throwthedamball

5 months

Excluding scrambles, how much separation a QBs receivers generate and how often QBs throw to open windows--both for the full season and the last 8 weeks

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@throwthedamball

7 months

Updated WR graph looking at play before the throw (X axis) and at the catchpoint/after catch (Y axis)

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@throwthedamball

5 months

Updating our graph on WR separation and catchpoint+YAC grade.

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4 months

2023 QB EPA & Accuracy on Deep Passes

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@throwthedamball

6 months

How often WRs face single coverage and how well they separate on those plays. Note: separation does not refer to number of yards of separation on average, but is based on a -2 to 2 scale (that's how you can have "negative separation")

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6 months

How often QBs throw from a clean pocket and their production when doing

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@throwthedamball

5 months

When Safeties are in primary coverage, how often they are targeted and their percentile in preventing separation

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6 months

@FinzZombie

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5 months

How often a QB throws into tight windows and their throw open % on those tight window throws. X axis is reversed as tight window throws are generally a bad idea (though sometimes necessary) Throw open = receiver is covered but the throw itself creates a window of separation

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4 months

How often QBs have clean pockets and their EPA on those throws

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@throwthedamball

6 months

Updating our chart through week 8 on WR separation and post throw grade (Catchpoint+YAC)

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@throwthedamball

7 months

While we're on the topic of WR play, here's a look using @PFF grades at how well WRs generate separation and how well they perform post throw (Catchpoint+YAC) Definitely some interesting similarities with Open Score, and plenty of differences as well.

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6 months

A look at how long a QB extends the play after pressure arrives and how often he takes a sack on those plays

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@throwthedamball

5 months

OL is a weak-link position group where one player losing their matchup can tank the entire protection. Here's a look at how often a QBs + his OL (yes, they're connected) has has been mistake free and their EPA on those plays

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@throwthedamball

4 months

How well CBs have done preventing separation on all coverage snaps and how often they're targeted

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@throwthedamball

5 months

When a coverage unit makes a mistake, how often does a QB "destroy" the play by 1) taking a sack 2) scrambling for negative EPA or 3) throwing into a tight window 4) throwing it away

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@throwthedamball

2 years

Through 4 weeks, here's how well each team has moved the ball on scripted plays vs non scripted plays. #nflverse

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@throwthedamball

6 months

The QB Decision model cc( @arjunmenon100 ) is a work in progress, but sharing some preliminary results. Idea is to generate EPA expectations for each route had the QB thrown the ball. This chart asks: "Is a QB winning through throw selection or what happens post release?"

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7 months

QB EPA in Man vs Zone

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5 months

QB EPA Man vs Zone

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4 months

How often teams generated and faced quick pressure (before 2.5 seconds)

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7 months

QB Production and accuracy on deep throws (20+ yards downfield)

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5 months

A look at PFF Pass Rush grades and pressure rates when rushing the passer in obvious passing situations (xpass >= 70%)

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6 months

QB Time to Throw and Depth of Target

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@throwthedamball

7 months

The average throw into a tight window loses a team 0.3 EPA and the rate of INTs is 6x higher than non-tight window throws. But sometimes throwing into tight windows is necessary. Here's a look at how often QBs are throwing into tight windows and their accuracy when doing so

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@throwthedamball

9 months

When you're wondering why Amari Cooper has shown few signs of decline after 9 NFL seasons and you remember he's still only 24.

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6 months

How much separation defenses allow and how much pressure they generate.

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@throwthedamball

4 months

When a safety is in primary coverage, how often they are targeted and how well they've performed preventing separation

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@throwthedamball

6 months

How often QBs throw to the Middle of the Field (MOF) and their EPA on those throws

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6 months

QB EPA under pressure vs not

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4 months

How often QBs face "Perfect Coverage" (plays when no coverage player makes a mistake) and their EPA on those plays

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@throwthedamball

2 years

Are the Bills good?

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@throwthedamball

11 months

This was a fun podcast... and look at our boy Kalif in the Mahomes spot

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@PFF_George

George Chahrouri

11 months

New @PFF Forecast Pod 🖨️ w/ @PFF_Brad & @throwthedamball 🏈 10 most underrated WRs in the NFL - informed by data not just vibes - there’s a 🦁, 🦅, and 49er 👽 Betting Conspiracy Corner returns Sub to the new YT👇

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@throwthedamball

11 months

@tejfbanalytics Imagine thinking there was such a thing as “football information overload”

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5 months

How often QBs play from outside the pocket and their EPA on those plays

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@throwthedamball

1 year

Kind of absurd @DKSportsbook can get away this

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@throwthedamball

6 months

How often a team makes a mistake in coverage and how often teams force coverage mistakes

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@throwthedamball

8 months

I've said it so many times before and I'll say it again: every WR graph is just a Rashid Shaheed graph.

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@throwthedamball

4 months

How QBs have performed when someone on D makes a coverage mistake (Y axis) vs when the defense makes no mistake (X axis)

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@throwthedamball

9 months

2022 QB Production on plays where at least one coverage defender messed up (Y axis) & on plays where no coverage defender messed up (X axis)

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10 months

When a QB is under pressure, how long do they extend plays and how often are they sacked

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5 months

How often QBs run the quick game and their EPA on those plays

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@throwthedamball

4 months

Interesting that the nearest PIT defender sees Allen slow up and clearly slows down thinking Allen is about to give himself up

@MySportsUpdate

Ari Meirov

@MySportsUpdate

4 months

Josh freaking Allen.

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5 months

What is happening with the Eagles pass protection?

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8 months

Top 10 Week 1 CBs in mine and @arjunmenon100 's coverage "SCOE" metric. A good start for Stingley after finishing as one of the worst in this metric last season. Am very intrigued how he develops in a Ryans system that places him in better positions.

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@throwthedamball

6 months

Updating our chart on WR separation and post throw grade (Catchpoint+YAC)

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@throwthedamball

5 months

Excluding scrambles, a look at the average separation a QBs receivers generate and how often QBs throw to an open man. Note: separation does not refer to avg yards of separations but is the earned separation receivers generate on a -2 to+2 scale

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7 months

QB ADOT & Time To Throw

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6 months

QB EPA vs man & zone

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6 months

Tight window throws have a base rate of success equivalent to an NFL worst offense. But certain situations require them. A look at how often QBs throw into tight windows (bad sign) and their effectiveness throwing open those covered receivers. Yes, scheme matters here.

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5 months

How often QBs play within the pocket and their EPA on those plays

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7 months

Have thought of this graph about 15 times tonight

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4 months

How often QBs scrambled this season and their EPA on those plays.

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5 months

For the full season and for the last 7 weeks, how often QBs have clean pockets and their EPA when throwing from clean pockets

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7 months

Updated WR graph looking at play before the throw (X axis) and at the catchpoint/after catch (Y axis). To clarify: the values on the x axis are from all roues and do not correspond to yards of separation. They are raw grades of a -2,2 scale trying to isolate the reps a WR won

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1 year

Has been lots of very interesting discussion about WRs and Man vs Zone. A look at WR play vs man and zone since 2019

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7 months

Adjusted for their assignment/role in the scheme, here are the top 12 coverage LBs in Successful Coverage (SCOE) so far this season

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