Classic aurora soundings in north US right now. Strong solar jet should lead to an increase in solar shear in the next few hours. Overmixing will keep auroras elevated so they don't weaken from land interaction. Have multiple ways to receive warnings tonight!
#wxtwitter
#aurora
2016 - no high risk ❌
2017 - high risk ✅
2018 - no high risk ❌
2019 - high risk ✅
2020 - no high risk ❌
2021 - high risk ✅
2022 - no high risk ❌
2023 - high risk ✅
2024 -❔
#wxtwitter
Since the hurricane season is starting soon, here's a list of names that will be used this year in the Atlantic. Just for fun: what will the strongest hurricane of the season be named?
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Significant severe weather remains possible on Monday (4/15) across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. All hazards appear possible, including tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
#okwx
#kswx
A MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms has been issued for tomorrow across parts of LA, MS and AL. A strong MCS will likely move through these areas, bringing extreme winds and many tornadoes, some of which will be strong.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#lawx
#mswx
#alwx
Potentially significant severe weather event with an all-hazards threat is possible on Wednesday in the Dixie Alley. Here are the forecast soundings from 12z NAM and GFS.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#lawx
#arwx
#mswx
#alwx
Today (Tuesday) continues to look concerning, with the HRRR showing supercells capable of all severe hazards in parts of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. The SPC has maintained a hail and tornado-driven enhanced risk for today.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#iawx
#ilwx
#wiwx
@NWSSPC
They mention a possible upgrade to enhanced: "This does not preclude the possibility of a significant or longer-lived tornado threat locally, but makes it too conditional and uncertainly focused for a specific, greater-potential outlook area at this point."
There is a MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. A tornado outbreak is expected, with multiple strong to intense tornadoes, giant hail and damaging wind.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
#okwx
#kswx
The 11z HRRR has the possibility of a supercell or two developing ahead of the dryline in Oklahoma. Any supercell that develops there will pose an intense tornado threat. We'll see if this becomes a trend or is just a one run thing.
#okwx
#tornado
The HRRR shows messy convection and struggles to develop strong supercells across the risk area. If this verifies,
#tornado
threat will be lower than previously expected. Still, the potential for tornadoes (some strong) will exist in the area.
#wxtwitter
#inwx
#kywx
#ohwx
There is a MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms today (Sunday) in parts of Kansas. Extreme wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are all expected. A derecho is possible.
#wxtwitter
#kswx
Ik I shouldn't use composite reflectivity 60 hours out, but Tuesday continues to look interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if we got 10% sigtor tomorrow.
#wxtwitter
Tomorrow just got upgraded to an enhanced risk in parts of Pennsylvania and extreme southwestern New York. Damaging wind is expected to be the main hazard, but isolated hail and tornado threat will also be present.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#pawx
#nywx
A MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms will be issued in parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana. Strong tornadoes and damaging winds are likely today.
#mowx
#arwx
#tnwx
#kywx
#ilwx
#inwx
The SPC extends today's hail-driven enhanced risk eastward to cover NE Texas and extreme NW Louisiana. Large to giant hail will be possible. The highest tornado threat appears to be present late evening and overnight in E Texas into N Louisiana.
#tornado
#wxtwitter
#txwx
Watching a developing supercell near Dodge City, KS and some rain showers that may also become thunderstorms soon northwest of Jetmore, KS.
#wxtwitter
#kswx
The SPC maintains an enhanced risk for today (Thursday) in parts of Ohio, West Virginia, extreme western Pennsylvania and extreme northeastern Kentucky. A few tornadoes will be possible.
#tornado
#ohwx
#wvwx
#pawx
#kywx
4 years ago today, a significant tornado outbreak impacted the Dixie Alley on Easter Sunday of 2020, killing 32 people. The event ended up producing 132 tornadoes (including 2 EF4s) which makes it the 4th largest outbreak in recorded history.
#otd
#wxtwitter
#tornado
My timeline right now:
Here is my Twitter circle!
Doing the circle again!
Are you in my circle?
Circle circle circle.
Comment if you're in my circle.
(Someone pinging NWS offices because they are in their circle)
The HRRR is now showing supercells developing along and just ahead of the dryline in Kansas after 01z. Those storms would pose an all-hazrads threat, including the potential for a few tornadoes (possibly strong). We'll see if the 12z run keeps this up.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#kswx
Potentially significant severe weather event will be possible on Monday (4/15). Pretty strong wording from the SPC, which expands the 30% risk area in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
#okwx
#kswx
So apparently the HRRR is now showing semi-discrete mode in Kansas? Today just keeps getting crazier, I wish all the best to the people in the risk areas and chasers, stay safe out there guys!
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#okwx
#kswx
A multi-day severe weather outbreak is likely late this week into the weekend, with severe thunderstorms possible across the Plains and Midwest.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
Not a huge fan of today's setup anymore. If the HRRR is correct, we might see some messy convection in the afternoon before storms quickly weaken by the evening. (1/2)
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#inwx
#kywx
#ohwx
The HRRR is now running for Monday and... it looks very interesting. While storm mode will likely be messy, significant hail and tornado potential is definitely there, according to this model run.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
Severe weather is possible tomorrow (Thursday) and Thursday night across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Hail and tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) are possible. (1/4)
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
#okwx
#kswx
Those early NAM runs are (almost) always wrong but, if this one were to verify, potentially significant tornado threat would be possible locally in east/central Texas on Monday. (1/2)
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
We have a 10% tornado risk area in parts of Kansas and Nebraska today, with a strong tornado being possible. Large to giant hail is also expected in the enhanced risk area.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#kswx
#newx
The last two days have been crazy, but, unfortunately, we're not done yet. An enhanced risk has been issued today in the ArkLaTex region, with a couple strong tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible.
#tornado
#txwx
#okwx
#arwx
#lawx
The SPC has issued three consecutive enhanced risks for today, tomorrow and Wednesday across the South. Here's a short thread regarding severe weather potential on these 3 days. (1/4)
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
#lawx
#mswx
#alwx
Monitoring this severe thunderstorm near Mineral Wells, TX, which is heading towards DFW area. Ping pong sized hail and 60 mph wind are possible with this storm!
#txwx
We're likely to see convective initiation across this area in west/central Kansas withing the next couple of hours. The storms will likely pose an all-hazrads threat, including the potential for a few tornadoes.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#kswx
The SPC has issued an enhanced risk for tomorrow. Wind is expected to be the main hazard, though a few tornadoes and some hail will be possible too.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#mowx
#ilwx
#kywx
17z HRRR develops multiple supercells in east Texas and west Louisiana. Things are really starting to get interesting now it seems...
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#txwx
#lawx
There is a MODERATE RISK of severe thunderstorms today (Saturday) from south Oklahoma to central Kansas. A tornado outbreak is expected, with strong to violent tornadoes, giant hail and damaging wind gusts. A high risk upgrade can't be ruled out in future outlooks.
#okwx
#kswx
In the last few runs, the HRRR has trended noticeably slower with today's MCS. A slower-moving MCS would mean more time for discrete supercells to develop in southern LA and MS, increasing tornado potential.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#lawx
#mswx
Interesting trend on the HRRR for today, with pretty high STP values in the Carolinas. If discrete supercells manage to develop in that area, tornadoes will be possible, including the potential for a strong tornado.
#wxtwitter
#tornado
#scwx
#ncwx