These last 5 days have been great!
Nikola Jokic o24.5 PTS (-125, HR) ✅
Bradley Beal o8.5 RA (-119, CZRs) ✅
Dejounte Murray o8.5 AST (-120, DK) ✅
Josh Hart o14.5 RA (-110, HR) ✅
Draymond Green o11.5 PA (-125, DK) ✅
Fred VanVleet o26.5 PA (-119, CZRs) ✅
Deandre Ayton o20.5
NBA Card 3/27:
Deandre Ayton o19.5 PTS (-130, HR)
Miles McBride o2.5 3PM (-104, FD)
Michael Porter Jr. o18.5 PA (-125, DK)
Myles Turner o23.5 PRA (-115, HR)
Dillon Brooks o14.5 PRA (-130, HR)
Jalen Duren DBL DBL (-115, FD)
100$ to someone who LIKES if we go 6-0!
NBA Card 4/9:
Jalen Green o3.5 AST (-145, DK)
Josh Hart o14.5 RA (-110, HR)
Vasilije Micic o6.5 AST (-115, bet365)
Victor Wembanyama o16.5 RA (-125, FD)
Michael Porter Jr. o4.5 1Q PTS (-120, HR)
Draymond Green o19.5 PRA (-115, HR)
100$ to someone who LIKES if we go 6-0!
Jalen Green o5.5 REB (-140, DK)
• Sengun is OUT
• 100% hit rate without Sengun (avg 10)
• Jalen Green is leading the Rockets in rebound chances since Sengun went down, with 14.3 rebound chances in those 4 games
• With Sengun ON the court, Green is averaging 5.38 REB per 36
NBA Card 4/19:
DeMar DeRozan o5.5 AST (-106, FD)
Tyler Herro o3.5 3PM (-125, FD)
Herbert Jones o17.5 PRA (-122, DK)
Harrison Barnes o1.5 3PM (-140, bet365)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0!
NBA Card 3/24:
CJ McCollum o7.5 RA (-133, CZRs)
Darius Garland o6.5 AST (-110, DK)
Khris Middleton o23.5 PRA (-115, HR)
Mike Conley o7.5 RA (-137, CZRs)
Tyrese Haliburton o18.5 PTS (-125, HR)
100$ to someone who LIKES if we go 5-0!
NBA Card 3/21:
Jalen Suggs o13.5 PR (-115, DK)
Josh Hart o26.5 PRA (-125, DK)
CJ McCollum o15.5 PTS (-125, DK)
Jalen Green o5.5 REB (-140, DK)
Bogdan Bogdanovic o24.5 PRA (-108, CZRs)
100$ to someone who LIKES if we go 5-0!
Draymond Green o13.5 PA (-125, DK)
Collab with
@JG4President
• Playoff Draymond is here
• The Warriors have been ramping up Draymond’s minutes. He’s had 28+ in his last 10 meaningful/ non ejected games (avg of 31.5)
• In his last two games, which were both exceedingly
Just a reminder guys - I do this for free. I dedicated hours to researching original plays daily.
The amount of negative comments I’ve seen on my posts over a 2-2 night is ridiculous.
D'Angelo Russell o16.5 PTS (-111, FD)
• Russell will be seeing MASSIVE minutes.
• We saw a glimpse of Dlo's big game minutes last game, where he played 38 minutes in a game that ended up being a blowout at the end. Russell could have seen 40+.
• Russell has averaged 34.8
50$ to someone who LIKES ❤️⬇️
5/15 RECAP: 🧹🧹🧹🧹
Kyrie Irving u2.5 3PM (-102, FD) ✅
Jrue Holiday u24.5 PRA (-108, CZRs) ✅
Dereck Lively o13.5 PRA (-133, CZRs) ✅
Mavs/Thunder UNDER 212.5 ✅
Second in three days. Momentum is building.
Josh Hart o12.5 RA (-135, DK)
• Let’s not overthink this
• Julius Randle is OUT
• 88% hit rate without Randle (avg 16.4)
• Philly allows the 2nd most rebounds to small forwards in the last 30 days
• Hart’s only two misses were vs the same Magic team
• Hart had 21 RA vs
NBA Card 4/22:
Jamal Murray o6.5 AST (-135, DK)
D’Angelo Russell o15.5 PTS (-112, DK)
Jalen Brunson o11.5 RA (-108, DK)
Franz Wagner o8.5 RA (-115, FD)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0!
Josh Hart o26.5 PRA (-125, DK)
• Yes, you read that right. 15.5 RA is a bit too high, I’m going with hit rate here.
• On the RA part… not much needed. DEN allows the 10th most rebounds to PFs last 30
• Points wise, we just can’t ignore this discount. Denver is in the worse
NBA Card 4/7:
Jalen Suggs o10.5 PTS (-130, DK)
Luka Doncic o30.5 PTS (-120, HR)
Immanuel Quickley o12.5 RA (-105, DK)
Josh Hart o14.5 RA (-140, HR)
Vasilije Micic o6.5 AST (-120, DK)
Anthony Davis o25.5 PA (-105, HR)
Victor Wembanyama o4.5 AST (-128, FD)
100$ to someone who
Trae Young o13.5 RA (-125, DK)
• Trust the hit rate.
• Trae Young is BACK and should be back to his full minutes after logging 32 minutes last game vs IND.
• We all know that Chicago is a catch and shoot funnel. Luckily for Trae, he has some great catch and shoot centered
CJ McCollum o7.5 RA (-133, CZRs)
• Brandon Ingram is OUT
• McCollum goes back to his ball handing role without Ingram
• Last game without Ingram (yesterday) McCollum had 10 potential assists which is way over his last 20 avg (6.3)
• 100% hit rate without Ingram in games
NBA Card 3/18:
Josh Hart o14.5 RA (-115, HR)
Deandre Ayton o21.5 PA (-130, HR)
Desmond Bane o21.5 PTS (-120, HR)
Clint Capela o10.5 RA (-130, DK)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0!
LeBron James o7.5 AST (-120, DK)
Collab with
@a1fantasy23
• This game has MASSIVE implications. A Pelicans win keeps them out of the play in and a Lakers win secures the 8 seed for them
• LeBron has gone over this line in 17 of his last 20 games with everyone active (avg
NBA Card 4/2:
Donte DiVincenzo o15.5 points (-125, bet365)
Luka Doncic o9.5 AST (-130, DK)
Evan Mobley o16.5 PA (-125, HR)
Fred VanVleet o6.5 AST (-115, HR)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0!
Rudy Gobert o13.5 RA (-115, HR)
• Karl Anthony Towns is OUT
• 100% hit rate without Towns (avg 16.5)
• Gobert is playing MASSIVE minutes without Towns, with 33+ minutes in each game, even with blowouts/foul trouble
• 68% hit rate with 32+ minutes (avg 15.4)
• Denver is not
Luka Doncic o18.5 RA (-106, FD)
Collab with
@austinsprops
• Here’s another of my “minutes” plays
• Luka just saw 42 minutes in Game 1, and I expect around the same in Game 2
• 68% hit rate with 36+ minutes (avg 20.3)
• Doncic has gone over this line in 18 of his last 20
Coby White o8.5 RA (-110, HR)
• Trust the hit rate.
• 80% hit rate without Zach Lavine (avg 11)
• 83% hit rate without Zach Lavine on the road (avg 11.6)
• 90% hit rate without Zach Lavine on the road with 30+ minutes (avg 12)
• Not the best matchup, but White is over this
Brandon Ingram o10.5 RA (-120, DK)
• Zion Williamson is OUT
• The Pelicans fully unleashed Brandon Ingram from his minutes restriction as he saw a healthy 37 minutes last game vs Sacramento
• 80% hit rate without Zion (avg 11.6)
• 100% hit rate without Zion with 32+ minutes
NBA Card 5/2:
Jalen Brunson o11.5 RA (-115, DK)
Pascal Siakam o12.5 RA (-118, DK)
Miles McBride o11.5 PR (-108, FD)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
Deandre Ayton o21.5 PA (-130, HR)
• Running this back
• Grant doubtful, Brogdon and Sharpe are OUT
• Ayton has been taking INSANE field goal attempts recently, averaging 19.8 since return from injury
• 100% hit rate without Grant and Brogdon (avg 29.8)
• 86% hit rate with
NBA Card 2/28:
Kawhi Leonard o10.5 RA (-130, FD)
Max Strus o8.5 PTS (-120, HR)
Pascal Siakam u32.5 PRA (-120, HR)
Luka Doncic o17.5 RA (-130, DK)
50$ to TWO people who LIKE if we go 4-0!
NBA Card 2/17:
Damian Lillard o26.5 PR (-115, HR)
Cade Cunningham o11.5 RA (-130, FD)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope o12.5 PRA (-115, HR)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
Austin Reaves o9.5 RA (-119, CZRs)
• TRUST THE HIT RATE
• Reaves is playing HUGE minutes in the last 10 games, averaging 36.2
• 72% hit rate when playing 32+ minutes (avg 11.6)
• 85% hit rate over his last 20 games when playing 32+ minutes (avg 12.6)
• Reaves has developed
Damian Lillard o31.5 PR (-115, DK)
• Giannis is OUT
• 86% hit rate without Giannis (avg 36.1)
• 100% hit rate without Giannis and 26+ minutes (avg 36)
• Averaging 7 rebound chances and 20 FGA in those games
• 29 PR with Giannis vs ORL on 12/21 and 35 PR on 4/10
• Orlando
Fred VanVleet o12.5 RA (-135, HR)
Collab with
@austinsprops
We’re 14-4 in collabs, let’s get another win!
• Coin respecter meets system play
• Utah allows the 2nd MOST assists to point guards
• Utah allows the 8th most rebounds to point guards
• Sengun is OUT
• 80% hit
NBA Card 3/31:
Corey Kispert o14.5 PTS (-130, HR)
Coby White o8.5 RA (-110, HR)
Austin Reaves o9.5 RA (-119, CZRs)
Donovan Mitchell o8.5 RA (-110, HR)
Miles McBride o21.5 PRA (-120, HR)
Amen Thompson o12.5 RA (-120, HR)
100$ to someone who LIKES if we go 6-0!
Josh Hart o14.5 RA (-110, HR)
• I mean, what are we doing?
• 71% hit rate without Julius Randle (avg 17)
• Hart got ejected just a couple days ago vs Chicago
• Knicks are fighting for the
#2
seed so Hart should see his full minutes
• Spread of 4, should be a close game
Al Horford o2.5 AST (+100, MGM)
Collab with
@a1fantasy23
• Kristaps Porzingis is OUT
• 91% hit rate without Porzingis and 30+ minutes (avg 3.5)
• 100% hit rate without Porzingis and all other starters in and 20+ minutes (avg 4.2)
• Averages 4.7 potential assists per 24 min
Aaron Gordon o5.5 REB (-125, bet365)
• Minnesota allows the 4th MOST rebounds to power forwards in the last 30 days
• 73% hit rate with 28+ minutes (avg 7.3)
• 75% hit rate with 28+ minutes at home (avg 7.7)
• Gordon is 2/3 vs Minnesota this season, with the miss in 11/01 in
Miles McBride o18.5 PRA (-125, DK)
Collab with
@austinsprops
• Thibs LOVES running Deuce to the ground
• In the last three games, Thibs has gone to a new rotation, starting Deuce and essentially playing him the entire game. Deuce has seen 46, 44, and 48 minutes
• Deuce is
Damian Lillard o38.5 PRA (-110, HR)
Collab with
@a1fantasy23
• Giannis is likely OUT
• 83% hit rate without Giannis (avg 44.7)
• 100% hit rate without Giannis and 26+ minutes (avg 48.8)
• 4/4 with Middleton and without Giannis playing 26+ min
• Averaging 16 potential
Jalen Suggs o13.5 PR (-115, DK)
• System play
• 83% hit rate at home (avg 17.3)
• 96% hit rate at home with 22+ minutes (avg 18.1)
• New Orleans is bad against C&S
• Suggs excels in C&S
• New Orleans allows the MOST 3s to shooting guards in the last 30 days
• We have a
Fred VanVleet o7.5 AST (-140, DK)
• Washington allows the 2nd assists to point guards
• VanVleet is averaging an unreal 17.3 potential assists in 3 games without Sengun (10.7 AST)
• VanVleet converts 58.1% of his assists this season meaning he is projected to get 10 assists
NBA Card 3/29:
Jalen Suggs o10.5 PTS (-125, FD)
Coby White o8.5 RA (-110, HR)
Jabari Smith Jr. o15.5 PA (-110, HR)
Rudy Gobert o13.5 RA (-115, HR)
Miles McBride o19.5 PA (-120, HR)
Myles Turner o16.5 PA (-115, CZRs)
100$ to someone who LIKES if we go 6-0!
Al Horford o2.5 AST (-130, bet365)
• Kristaps Porzingis is OUT
• Horford slots into the starting lineup here
• 3 assists on 6 potential assists on 29 passes in just 22.7 minutes in a blowout to Miami last game. Boston was trying to keep Horford fresh for this series, so we
NBA Card 3/25:
Bogdan Bogdanovic o6.5 RA (-135, HR)
Miles McBride o18.5 PRA (-125, DK)
Pascal Siakam o7.5 REB (-122, FD)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
Desmond Bane o21.5 PTS (-120, HR)
Collab with
@austinsprops
We’re 10-3 on collabs, let’s get our 11th win!
• VOLUME PLAY
• Ja Morant and crew remain OUT
• 66% hit rate without Morant (avg 24.3)
• 74% hit rate without Morant with 28+ minutes (avg 25.7)
• 100% hit rate rate
Immanuel Quickley o12.5 RA (-105, HR)
• Scottie Barnes is OUT
• IQ is an absolute RA farmer
• Over his last 3 games, IQ is averaging 17.3 potential assists and 10.3 rebound chances. That’s 27.6 RA chances
• 80% hit rate without Barnes and 30+ minutes (avg 16.3)
• Miami
NBA Card 3/26:
Khris Middleton o22.5 PRA (-125, HR)
Zion Williamson o5.0 AST (DFS)
Steph Curry o8.5 RA (-105, HR)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
Josh Hart o14.5 RA (-115, HR)
• The wagon continues
• 67% hit rate without Randle (avg 16.8)
• 86% hit rate on the road without Randle (avg 16.7)
• 25 RA vs GS on 2/29
• Golden State is allowing the 3rd most rebounds to small forwards in the last 30 days
• Golden State is
NBA Card 4/25:
OG Anunoby o10.5 PTS (-122, DK)
LeBron James o8.5 AST (-115, bet365)
Nikola Jokic o8.5 AST (-130, DK)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
NBA Card 4/24:
Payton Pritchard o10.5 PA (-112, DK)
Trey Murphy o22.5 PR (-118, DK)
Jalen Williams o23.5 PR (-115, DK)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
NBA Card 4/29:
D'Angelo Russell o2.5 3 PTM (-105, DK)
Trey Murphy o20.5 PR (-115, bet365)
Kristaps Porzingis o15.5 PTS (-115, HR)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
Rudy Gobert o13.5 RA (-112, DK)
• Karl-Anthony Towns continued to be Nikola Jokic’s primary defender last game, giving Gobert additional chances to grab boards.
• Gobert grabbed 13 rebounds on 23 rebound chances in Game 1, along with 3 assists on 5 potential assists
• We
Tyrese Haliburton o10.5 AST (-132, FD)
Collab with
@austinsprops
and
@a1fantasy23
• Golden State allows the 3rd MOST assists to point guards in the last 30 days
• 71% hit rate with 30+ minutes (avg 12.3)
• 75% hit rate with 30+ minutes on the road (avg 12.8)
• Haliburton
Trey Murphy o5.5 REB (-140, FD)
• No Ingram? System play.
• Trey Murphy has found himself a new rebounding role since Ingram’s injury, averaging 8.4 rebounds on 12 rebound chances in his last 5 games
• 86% hit rate without Ingram (avg 7.3)
• Murphy has been playing HUGE
Bogdan Bogdanovic o6.5 RA (-135, HR)
• Trae Young and Jalen Johnson are OUT
• 83% hit rate without Trae and Jalen (avg 9.5)
• Bogdanovic’s potential assist numbers are INSANE without Trae and Jalen, averaging 9.6 in these past 5 games with 8+ in every game
• Adding the
D’Angelo Russell o15.5 PTS (-112, DK)
Collab with
@austinsprops
• TRUST THE VOLUME.
• Russell’s game log vs Denver is not great. He’s only gone over in 1 of 3 games this season. To add, it’s also a tough matchup on paper.
• However, we cannot ignore the ELITE volume that
Corey Kispert o14.5 PTS (-130, HR)
• Miami is a CS funnel, allowing the 6th most CS 3PA
• Miami allows the 4th most 3s to wings in the last 30 days
• Kispert is playing HUGE minutes lately, with 33+ minutes in each of his last 6 games
• 100% hit rate with 32+ minutes (avg
Jalen Johnson o3.5 AST (-130, HR)
• Trae Young is OUT
• Johnson has a new playmaking role without Trae, especially as of recent
• 64% hit rate without Young with 26+ minutes (avg 4.3)
• Johnson has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 games without Trae with 26+ minutes
NBA Card 4/30:
Josh Hart o4.5 AST (-118, DK)
Jarret Allen o11.5 REB (-118, FD)
OG Anunoby o5.5 REB (-102, DK)
Franz Wagner o3.5 AST (-135, bet365)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0!
Damian Lillard o25.5 PR (-113, CZRs)
Collab with
@austinsprops
We’re 12-3 in collabs, let’s improve!
• Boston allows the MOST pull up 3 point attempts
• Lillard attempts the 7th most pull up 3s in the entire NBA
• Boston allows the 8th most points to point guards in the
Jalen Williams o4.5 AST (-115, DK)
Collab with
@austinsprops
• Point Jalen is here
• Jalen Williams led the Thunder in passes made by a wide margin in the first round. He averaged 5 assists on 8.8 potential assists and 50.8 passes
• Additionally. Jalen played 34+ minutes
Anfernee Simons o21.5 PTS (-125, FD)
• Happy to run this at a discount
• Jerami Grant is DOUBTFUL, Brogdon and Sharpe are OUT
• 91% hit rate without Grant and Brogdon (avg 27.9)
• 74% hit rate on the season when playing 30+ minutes (avg 26.2)
• Simons has been playing HUGE
Tyrese Maxey o29.5 PA (-120, DK)
Collab with
@a1fantasy23
• Expect MASSIVE minutes from Maxey
• Maxey just played 40 minutes in an important game vs Orlando, so we can expect the same in a huge stakes play-in game
• 81% hit rate with 35+ minutes Embiid (avg 34.8)
• Maxey
Trey Murphy o5.5 REB (-130, bet365)
• Brandon Ingram is still OUT
• 75% hit rate without Ingram (avg 6.8)
• Murphy has seen 32+ minutes in 9 straight games without Ingram
• 82% hit rate with 32+ minutes (avg 6.8)
• Golden State is an average matchup in the last 30 days for
Luka Doncic o9.5 AST (-130, DK)
• Golden State allows the 7th MOST assists to point guards in the last 30 days
• Luka has gone over this line in 14 of his last 20 games when playing 32+ minutes
• Luka has gone over this line in 12 of 16 games with 32+ minutes since the ASB
•
NBA Card 4/4:
Ivica Zubac o21.5 PR (-115 bet365)
Miles McBride o19.5 PA (-120, DK)
Dejounte Murray o13.5 RA (-120, HR)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!
NBA Card 4/28:
Karl-Anthony Towns o9.5 RA (-135, DK)
Jalen Brunson o11.5 RA (+102, DK)
Ivica Zubac o23.5 PRA (-108, DK)
Aaron Nesmith o1.5 3PM (-148, DK)
50$ to someone who LIKES if we go 4-0!
Kawhi Leonard o10.5 RA (-130)
• Paul George is OUT
• Los Angeles allow the MOST rebounds to power forwards in the last 30 days
• Los Angeles the second most assists to power forwards in the last 30 days
• 75% hit rate without Paul George (avg 12.3)
• 11, 10, and 21 RA vs
Jalen Duren o12.5 RA (-120, DK)
• Cleveland allows the third most rebounds to centers in the last 30 days
• 72% hit rate on the season (avg 14.6)
• 82% hit rate when playing 26+ minutes (avg 15.9)
• Duren has gone over his line in 8 of his last 10 games (avg 15.6)
•
Jrue Holiday o8.5 RA (-135, DK)
• TRUST THE HIT RATE.
• If we see this line so low in a positive matchup, we take it.
• 70% hit rate on the season (avg 10.4)
• 75% hit rate with 28+ minutes (avg 10.8)
• Holiday has beaten the away merchant allegations and is over this
Jaden McDaniels o3.5 REB (-125, HR)
• Karl Anthony Towns is OUT
• 100% hit rate without Towns (avg 5.8)
• McDaniels averages 8.5 rebound chances without Towns and 10.5 in the two recent games
• If this 8.5 average sticks, we just need Jaden to convert 47% of these, which is
Deandre Ayton o13.5 RA (-119, CZRs)
• Los Angeles allows the 7th most rebounds to centers in the last 30 days
• Los Angeles allows the MOST assists to centers in the last 30 days
• Ayton has been playing HUGE minutes lately since the return from injury, with 32+ in 6/6 and
Immanuel Quickley o13.5 RA (-110, HR)
• IQ learned from Josh Hart while in New York
• Portland allows the 6th most assists to point guards
• Portland allows the 16th most rebounds to point guards
• IQ has gone over this line in 3/3 games without Scottie Barnes (avg 19.7)
•
Jalen Brunson o33.5 PTS (-128, FD)
Collab with
@austinsprops
• The Pacers play single coverage. This will give Brunson more chances on drives and pull ups, where he succeeds.
• Indiana allowed the 2nd most FGM inside 10 feet and 4th most pull up FGM this season. Brunson
Jalen Brunson o11.5 RA (-115, DK)
• Can’t believe they’re still giving us this line
• Brunson has gone over this line with 14+ RA in all but one games this series
• Brunson missed this line last game, however had 6 assists on a massive 15 potential assists
• Brunson’s
Ivica Zubac o21.5 PR (-115 bet365)
Collab with
@a1fantasy23
• Kawhi Leonard is OUT
• 83% hit rate without Kawhi with 17+ minutes (avg 26.8)
• 100% hit rate without Kawhi at home (avg 29.3)
• Zubac has seen 26+ minutes in 6 straight without Kawhi
• 60% hit rate with 26+
Trey Murphy o5.5 REB (-135, DK)
• Brandon Ingram is OUT
• 83% hit rate without Ingram (avg 7)
• 100% hit rate without Ingram this month (avg 8.3)
• Murphy is playing MASSIVE minutes without Ingram, averaging 34.2 and playing 39 minutes in each of his last two games
• 81%
Bradley Beal o17.5 PTS (-112, DK)
• Beal has seen his volume increase heavily recently
• Beal mentioned in an interview around 2 weeks ago that Kevin Durant told him to be more aggressive. Since then, he’s attempted 13+ FGs in 5 straight games including 21 last game vs
Jamal Murray o6.5 AST (-120, bet365)
Collab with
@austinsprops
• Let’s take a look at Jamal Murray’s minutes this postseason. 39, 39.5, 40.6, 39.1, 40.5. That’s extremely consistent.
• In 3 games vs MIN this season, Murray has has gone over this line only once. But that
D'Angelo Russell o2.5 3 PTM (-105, DK)
Collab with
@JG4President
• Essentially, the attempts and volume are 100% still there for DLo who has taken 9, 11, 6 (24 mins and benched) and 8 3 PTA so far this series. Last game, he was entrusted again by Darvin Ham and he should here