Whenever you look to generalise from a small sample watch out for sampling bias (and all other sorts of bias that can easily creep in).
Extreme example from How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff:
The Swiss Cheese Model for understanding accidents and improving safety
J Reason's model illustrates how accidents can occur in complex systems when multiple contributing factors happen to align at the same time.
#coronavirus
example from
@ClevelandClinic
The BS asymmetry principle also known as Brandolini's law — the simple observation that it’s far easier to produce and spread BS, misinformation and nonsense than it is to refute it.
The original: from
@ziobrando
From the old story about the statistician who drowned after seeing that the average depth was 3ft.
A psychology professor gave me the wise advice: Spend time with your data. Sometimes it's the only way to know what's happening for sure.
This way of storing energy is used on a number of central London underground stations: constructing the stations at the top of a small hill in the track. Apparently, on London's Victoria line this saves 5% in energy and helps the trains run 9% faster.
The curb-cut effect
The curb-cut effect illustrates how when we design to benefit disadvantaged or vulnerable groups we end up helping society as a whole.
Data avoids arguments. It's why I love this quote from W. Edwards Deming:
"Without data you're just another person with an opinion."
Or as Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO, said:
"If we have data, let's look at data. If all we have are opinions, let's go with mine."
Sad to hear today of the death of Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. He contributed so much through his research on creativity, which helped me decide to do a PhD, happiness, his concept of flow - which guides me daily - and more.
The word amphitheatre derives from the Greek word amphi- loosely meaning on both sides or all around.
The same pattern is in amphoras—handles on both sides—and amphibians—at home on both land and water.
It's fun having an aunt who used to teach classics =)
Todd Jackson memorably shared that a manager can be an umbrella — protecting their team to let them get work done — or a funnel — letting everything pour through.
We all want autonomy to choose our actions but none of us want to be overwhelmed.
Be the umbrella.
Thanks
@tjack
The curb-cut effect illustrates how when we design to benefit disadvantaged or vulnerable groups we end up helping society as a whole.
More:
Thanks Angela Glover Blackwell
@agb4equity
@policylink
The remarkable observation that the length of a coastline doesn’t converge on a more accurate figure the closer you measure it. Instead, the smaller your ruler, the longer it gets - the coastline paradox
For a textplanation:
For some obscure reason English speakers will almost always find a flip-flop to be more natural than a flop-flip, or a pitter patter of tiny feet to a patter pitter. It's known as ablaut reduplication and the vowels almost always follow the order I-A-O.
"You can know the name of that bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird."
— Feynman's father, from Surely You're Joking Mr Feynman?
The Barnum effect is our tendency to apply personal meaning to statements that could apply to many people.
You may recognise it from a horoscope or your star sign, magicians, fortune-tellers, fortune cookies, con artists and, perhaps, marketing.
Plan ahead and avoid mistakes like this.
Perhaps a nice reminder, as we approach a new year full of possibilities, to make sure your D fits in properly.
Hope you're getting to enjoy a lovely holiday 🎄
Bloom's Taxonomy for learning (revised) — Remember, Understand, Apply, Analyze, Evaluate, Create
The hierarchy reflects, among other things, that a strong foundation for learning is knowledge.
It's been called the expectation effect. Is it a B or a 13? It appears that how we see depends on the context and what we expect to see.
This neat example is from a 1955 experiment by Jerome Bruner and A. Leigh Minturn.
Data Information Knowledge Wisdom
In his poem The Rock, T.S. Eliot wrote:
Where is the Life we have lost in living?
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?
A recessed button affords pressing it. A sticking-out dial affords twiddling it. You shouldn't need trial and error to get through a door. An object should communicate a good part of how to use it through its affordances.
The beautiful Japanese worldview of appreciating the small traits of imperfection, the changes of wear and age, and that nothing is wholly complete: wabi sabi
It helps us see the beauty in what isn't perfect and brand new — something as a society we could do with more of.
Chihuahua syndrome: messy data from variations in spelling or input.
The name The chihuahua syndrome is from
@EdwardTufte
in his new book Seeing with Fresh Eyes, based on an anecdote from Chris Groskopf
@onxyfish
Jólabókaflóð, or Christmas Book Flood, is the charming Icelandic tradition of giving books as gifts, opening them on Christmas Eve, and settling in to read them together, ideally with hot chocolate or other warming wintry drink.
If we're really honest with ourselves, sometimes we find ourselves working in the places we find it easier rather than the places where we know we ought to be.
Pleonasms
Not to over-exaggerate but I think they're absolutely perfect. And to warn you in advance, as an extra bonus, my past experience is that they're everywhere. Honest truth!
Optimism bias is a tendency to believe that things will turn out well in spite of past evidence or circumstances.
It can be extremely helpful. Optimists are often healthier and happier. But it can also undermine us. May your optimism be well-founded.
The cost of being late - Unless your time is worth a lot more than everyone else’s it’s worth thinking twice before holding the door to a train or not taking the start of a meeting seriously. I think, at the end of the day, t’s really about respect.
Heat islands: urban areas that experience higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas.
If you are in a Northern hemisphere city right now you may well be able to relate to this.
As the metaphor goes, you may feel you have no time to stop and sharpen the saw. Until you do it, and then you may realise you have no time to not stop and sharpen the saw.
Sharpen the saw is habit 7 of Steven Covey's classic The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People
The Learning Pit: that struggle before getting it
Passing through that uncomfortable space of confusion and contradiction, perseverance and hard work before we get out the other side.
See
@TheLearningPit
by
@JamesNottinghm
Don't ask the barber if you need a haircut — a simple reminder that asking someone with a vested interest in the outcome isn't likely to give you an impartial answer.
See how monkeys can help you spot passive writing in your copy, subtly removing your responsibility.
This super example and technique is from
@monzo
's tone of voice guidelines. Handy for writing copy on the web, for your brand, and every day.
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Simple, timeless advice for wellbeing from Kurt Vonnegut: notice when you're happy.
"I urge you to please notice when you are happy, and exclaim or murmur or think at some point, ‘If this isn’t nice, I don’t know what is'.”
More:
If you want to make something simple, you have to do the work.
It's rather like the saying: "If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter."
Sketch based on a quote attributed to Woodrow Wilson.
Attribution bias includes a set of more specific biases where we may attribute behaviour to fixed personality traits or characteristics of a person rather than specific circumstances or actions.
When drinking tea, just drink tea.
Stay in the moment. Don't try to do things at the same time. Leave the phone in the other room.
This proverb has stuck with me since I first came across it in a NYT article from
@michaelpollan
in 2009 🙏
Anyone who's tried their hand at research, built some software, or even run a kid's birthday party may relate to this idea: In theory, practice is the same as theory, but not in practice.
In Sir Arthur Eddington's parable of the fishing net a scientist studying fish by hauling them up with nets concludes that there is a minimum size of fish in the sea.
You get what you measure, and your instrument affects what you see.
More:
#metrics
When we notice two things change with each other — sunny days and ice cream sales — it's natural to think that one thing is the cause of the other. But our natural sense-making behaviours can easily lead us astray. Correlation does not imply causation.
How more choices can make us less happy:
- Raised expectations
- The opportunity cost of what we could have had
- Regret and anticipated regret of the choice we made
- Self-blame when we think the wrong choice is our fault
Barry Schwartz' paradox of choice
The XY Problem
There's art and skill in respectfully answering questions and helping with what's asked while seeking to understand the real goal.
And if you're asking questions, providing more context may help others provide better answers.
Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of human needs.
Maslow continued to refine his original framework. For all its flaws — it always provokes discussion and counter-arguments in my experience — it's remained a clarifying and remarkably enduring model.
Where is the Life we have lost in living?
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?
— TS Eliot
Because we know all about our own house it's easy to find ourselves comparing how we're doing in the back with how others are doing in the front.
The truth is we don't know how others are doing so best not be comparing at all.
Confirmation bias is the big one — seeking out information that fits our beliefs.
When we deliberately seek out information that challenges our point of view we will usually find a richer, more nuanced world that helps build bridges with others rather than drive us apart.
The old, old story of the blind and the elephant.
I'd guess most of our experience is somewhat like this. We rarely see the whole truth. When we stay humble and accept others' experience we give ourselves the chance to learn a little more.
A model for Hope — more than a feeling.
Hope needs goals, seeing pathways to reach them and willpower or agency — the belief you have the ability needed. Without each of these hope is diminished.
Model paraphrased from CR Snyder
Chesterton's fence: Don't take a fence down unless you know why it was put up.
Once we understand why the fence was there in the first place and if we still think it's of no use, then by all means pull it down.
Fences, laws, policies, designs...
After GK Chesterton
Yak shaving. It happens to all of us — tidying your room? — and particularly resonates in software development where when tackling one thing you find yourself fixing something else, which needs you to fix something else, to fix something else...
The Rhyme As Reason Effect suggests that we're more likely to consider something as accurate or truthful when it rhymes.
From the delightfully titled paper Birds of a feather flock conjointly: Rhyme as Reason in Aphorisms, by Matthew McGlone and Jessica Tofighbakhsh
Point positive: agreeing in advance to point towards the safe way out of danger rather than towards the dangers themselves.
Also a reminder that it's often less helpful to dwell on difficulties and problems than to direct our energies toward positive ways forward and solutions.
Metrics are like an onion: full of layers.
A simple question to ask can often be complicated to answer. Or we may find that we really need to ask a different question.
A beautiful Japanese word for the acquiring and piling up of books without reading them. Constructued from 2 words loosely meaning ‘piling up’ and ‘reading’ - Tsundoku