I am so happy to officially share that I am starting a new position as a Graduate Summer Associate with
@RANDCorporation
. I am so thankful to have the opportunity to work with exceptional scholars
Al-Qaeda: Forgotten but not gone. In my
@WarOnTheRocks
article, I argue that al-Qaeda’s commitment & adaptability dismiss any claims of its decline. Ignoring al-Qaeda’s threat is not an option; in this case, ignorance is anything but bliss
Humbled and honored to have been invited to brief on the enduring threat posed by al-Qaeda at the
@NATO
Strategic Direction South 15th Terrorism Conference in the UK. Grateful for the opportunity to contribute to vital discussions. 🇺🇳
My latest for
@lawfareblog
I use primary resources &work by
@dbyman
@asfandyarmir
&
@ProfLizGrimm
to answer “why hasn’t al-Qaeda conducted another 9/11 on U.S. soil?” The question has no single answer, but intent&capabilities are not part of the reason
Curious about how much sway Iran has over its Proxies? In our latest piece,
@nakissapjahan
and I examine Iran’s influence on Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis
As a Lebanese counterterrorism expert privy to Iran's ops, via email, I warned then-U.S. Speaker of the House of a looming attack before his Israel 2023 visit. The Oct 7 attack is not the endpoint; it’s the start of a calculated offensive My thoughts below
@AdamWunische
I appreciate your insights, but my article dives deeper. It addresses the nuances often overlooked.
1. I distinguish between decline and defeat, recognizing that a decline in visible activities does not equate to defeat.
2. It views AQ and its affiliates as a unified network,…
Excited to share this article with
@mark_berlin2
&
@VladimirRauta
where we explore the significant impact of the Oct. 7 attack, examining the shifting dynamics in extremist alliances
@IrregWarfare
There is no moment like the one when you hold your book for the first time. Very excited that “Terror in Transition” with the exceptional
@ProfLizGrimm
is coming out in Sept with
@ColumbiaUP
. Grateful to
@caelyncobb
for her unwavering support for the project!
Had a great conversation here with
@billroggio
and
@sara_harmouch
on the current state of al-Qaeda and its remaining threat. Don't discount them yet, folks.
In my
@WarOnTheRocks
piece, I discuss how al-Qaeda eyes Sudan to achieve what it couldn't in the Middle East. On Feb 8, al-Qaeda’s Malahem issued guidance for jihadists in Sudan “Mujahideen in Sudan must prepare..Clouds of confrontation have begun to gather in the sky&they’re…
1/8 Excited to share my
@gwupoe
report on Islamic State supporters' activities online!
It discusses how pro-IS supporters create content/channels/etc., connect (grow their networks), & deceive (incl. tactics they use to avoid content moderation)
Next Friday, April 22, I am hosting the one & only
@warnjason
for a talk on his new book, the Islamic State in Africa. Please join for what will be an informative discussion on an important topic!
@AU_SPA
One of my closest mentors, Dr. David Johnson, passed away. He was one of a kind. The last time I saw him, he gave me a framed poem by Emerson.“To know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived -this is to have succeeded.” That was Dave Johnson. Until we meet again.
Sayf al-Adel, AQ defacto leader, made a statement:“Now it is the right time for Islamic movements to form sleeper cells so they can be called to assassinate the traitorous Gulf rulers & to support the mujahideen in Palestine with operations against the Jews & their interests”
Wagner’s air defense aid to Hezbollah was a long-expected move; their parallel growth from regional forces to global threats foreshadowed this alliance. Their joint ventures from Syria to Ukraine highlight a strategic partnership against a common Western adversary
Are you curious how members of the US government have been using their Twitter platforms to speak about issues and communicate to their followers?
Check
@M_H_Becker
who continues to do amazing things! He collected the data, coded it and made a website for it!
"The lesson, then, is that as much as we might wish that the terrorist threat to the homeland has subsided, it has not."
With
@hoffman_bruce
in
@CTCWP
Sentinel's 15th anniversary issue.
Reading the latest AQ book release, Al-Masri discussed that the goal behind the 9/11 attacks was to drag the US into long-lasting wars. Through it, AQ can achieve the strategic goal of awakening the Muslim Ummah against the US & exhaust the US militarily & economically
Check this new article on the study of al-Qaeda-linked Arabic language newspaper al-Masra. Congrats to
@mark_berlin2
and
@Tyler_B_Parker
and co-authors!! I can’t wait to read it!
Very excited that my co-authored article, “Jihadist Journalism: Exploring the Geographic Coverage of al-Masra Newspaper,” is now published online at
@terpolv
! A short 🧵
@AdamWunische
Relying solely on tangible capabilities has historically proven ineffective, as seen with the Vietcong in Vietnam, the Mujahideen against the Soviets, and more recently, Ukraine's resistance against Russia.
So, while assessing AQ's threat is indeed complex, dismissing their…
They discuss:
1) Relationship with God
2) Weapons
3) The Will to Fight
4) Combat Readiness
5) Roadmap
6) Ahel Al Elem — the people of knowledge
7) Yad Allah Ma’a Al Jama’ah — God’s hand with the community
One of my favorite parts of
#ISA2022
was having conversations with impressive young PhD students like
@_cstrick
and
@sara_harmouch
who are already distinguishing themselves. Taking the time to talk with and introduce students to folks in my network was an absolute joy.
The integration of Hezbollah in Russia's Ukraine strategy shows the deep trust & strategy within this alliance, posing a new challenge to the West. And joint control over strategic economic in Deir Ezzor’s oil fields, shows their mutual interests beyond just military cooperation.
Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other terrorist groups are calling for attacks against U.S. and Western interests, particularly embassies, in the Middle East
Saudi Arabia orders its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately following a meeting between its FM and Iran’s counterpart about the Gaza conflict. Coincidence, or a sign of Iran stepping up its involvement openly?
Lebanese forces arrested a number of people in Tripoli who formed a cell supporting ISIS. They purchased weapons and ammunition to carry out security operations, taking advantage of the deteriorating situation in Lebanon. They also sought to recruit other people to help them.
@AdamWunische
In "How the Weak Win Wars" and "Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars," both Arreguín-Tofta and Mack emphasize the importance of innovation and adaptability, demonstrating how it is these factors that often turn the tide against materially superior forces and shift the balance in…
I think we forgot that when al-Qaeda conducted the 9/11 attacks, it only had 50-75 members, no affiliates, and not as much money. The fact that they haven't conducted any larger-scale attacks does not mean they lack the capabilities to do so
Threat to US from
#alQaida
,
#ISIS
members in
#Afghanistan
+1 year since the US withdrawal "quite limited" per latest US assessments
"The threat today is more likely to take the form of an individual attacker inspired by these groups..." says NCTC chief
Curious about how the presence of Russian 🇷🇺 troops abroad can influence repression? Check out our paper (w/
@TittaBorselli
&
@JosephKYoung
) in this panel full of human rights scholar stars 🌟today at
#ISA2022
!
New evidence shows increasing cooperation between Houthis & al-Qaeda in Yemen, including secret meetings to plot attacks against the West. Previously, the two have collaborated on drones. This reaffirms that the threat from al-Qaeda is far from over
I heard a rumor that today was
@Victor_Asal
's birthday...
Happy birthday, Victor! Hope it's a good day, and that your birthday in 2021 is even better!
Wagner aiding Hezbollah with air defense was imminent; their histories of growing from local to global threats predicted such an alliance. Their partnership in Syria, supporting Assad and retaking Palmyra, highlights their combined military and geopolitical capabilities.
@Helmus
@RANDCorporation
Thank you Dr. Helmus! I’ll be working with Dr. Daniel Egel, Dr. Adam Grissom, and Dr. Natalie Crawford! I am very thankful for that opportunity.
Depleting the US’s resources was one step in AQ’s overall grand plan. Al-Masri states: “It may seem that the US is powerful and stubborn, and many think we are weakened,but in reality, the opposite is true…We don’t consider this war easy or simple, but our victory is soon.”