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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

@realwxforecast

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Risk Manager/Broker by day, weather junkie by night. WX spotter for the NWS. Bi-Coastal. Enjoy anything outdoors. Will also discuss USC, โ›ณ๏ธ & sometimes Mets!

CA/NY
https://t.co/Vn72HiC6Fw
Joined October 2017
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 months
Followers - Thanks for the wishes during my trek up to @palisadestahoe yesterday. Was fun driving on the 80, with off and on snow showers, only to get to the village and a huge snow shower dumped on us. The video is below. As I have discussed throughout the last 2 weeks or so,
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 months
Dumping now at @palisadestahoe @OpenSnow Made it up and over Donner Summit just before it started dumping. Look forward to the Sierra POW tomorrow!! #sierra #snow #CAwx #wxtwitter
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - All Systems go for what cold be a historic event for the State of CA, up and down the coast. Major possible upper level bomb cyclone upper level low, is being the engine, as it is pulling in major subtropical and tropical moisture from over 4000+ miles away...and is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Quick Update Followers - As I discussed a few days ago, the pattern for the West Coast is really going to do a 180, and flip cold and somewhat active. Check out the models below for the beginning and middle of the May. I know some folks are not going to like this, but as I
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - Hope you made it thru the potent but quick storm overnight in CA. That was just the appetizer, as the storm Sunday thru at least Tuesday/Wednesday of next week will be the Super Bowl of all storms for everyone in CA. PNW folks will be on the outside looking in.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Morning Update - By now, every news outlet's main story is #Hilary . She is now a Cat 4 Major Hurricane, heading north to Baja Ca and into the southwestern part of CA. She will weaken overnight as she hits cooler waters in Baja before she makes landfall late Saturday night as
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Quick Saturday Update - Scattered showers are around everyone in CA, a Levee broke north of Monterey, Tahoe and Mammoth and buried, and most people in CA are done with this winter. However, I have discussed many times, this pattern will by and large go thru the end of the month.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Evening Update - #Hillary has been downgraded to a CAT 1, as her winds are less as she heads into the Southwest. You can see the update from the @NHC_Pacific below on this thread, which I posted from. Therefore, here are my thoughts, which really haven't changed based on the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Quick Model Update - The NBM (National Blend Model) came out and spit out this for Precipitation and winds. Take a look, depending where your area is, but winds over the mountains, coasts and foothills look very high now into the desert and rain totals look impressive. Depending
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Quick Saturday Morning Update - By now, the media, @NWSLosAngeles , @NWSSanDiego has informed most people that the @NHC_Pacific has shifted the path of #Hilary a tad eastward. What this means is, and I have been saying this for last few days on this thread, is the main impact of
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Evening Update - Well folks, we are almost here for the main event for #Hilary for the Southwest and Socal. Although she got downgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 3, she is still a major hurricane/cyclone. For the information on her, see the image post. That being said, all systems
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Morning Update - By now, everyone knows about Hilary. She was formed overnight and it headed to Baja CA and the desert/Southwest, and into SoCal. Below are the updated model plot paths, along with the EPS and the GEFS from this mornings model runs. Based on model output this am,
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
New Update Folks - The @NHC_Pacific just updated the path of #HILARY . It looks like it moved about 5 to 10 miles to the west. I also added the spaghetti models and it is looking pretty tight for a consensus to hit around SD. Will update everyone as often as they comes. Also,
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Saturday Afternoon Update - Well folks, we are almost here and waiting for #Hilary . The hype with this storm is once in a century or lifetime, depending how old you are. I have posted the following images: - Updated Cone of #Hilary . She is sliding eastward ever so slightly,
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 years
Another heat wave is poised to strike the West Coast at the end of the Month. More details as to how strong/weak the heat wave will be, won't be known until later this weekend. Enjoy the cooler weather in the meantime for the next 7 to 10 days, but this is something to watch!!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - Good morning. I hope you have all made it thru the night unscathed. Some notes before on the storm: - Folks, truly historic rain fall in SoCal, as the AR plume has been stalled and has been pumping in 100+ trillion gallons of tropical rain into SoCal, and LAC. Crazy
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Does anyone in Tahoe know where this is taken??
@ActiveNorCal
Active NorCal
@ActiveNorCal
1 year
Itโ€™s absolute madness in Tahoe right now. (via @og_tahoe_memes /IG)
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Happy Thursday Folks - Quick Update. Major pattern change headed to the West is still on track. We are going from a heatwave to a cooler/wetter pattern in a matter of 36 hours, starting this weekend. Models are all over the place with amounts of rain/snow, but Euro is a bit more
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Morning Update - By now, most of the national news on the West Coast is about Hilary, which is now becoming a major Hurricane/Cyclone. The graphic this am is from the @NWSSanDiego , and @NWSNHC , which illustrates where she is predicted to go. As I stated last night, the
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@NWSSanDiego
NWS San Diego
@NWSSanDiego
9 months
And with that, Hilary is now a hurricane. Note: the track forecast was not updated with this advisory. Curious on how to interpret this product? Check out this video from the National Hurricane Center:
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Folks - This is a great Satellite image loop of the massive storm pounding CA. Look at the tail extending over 4000 miles to the west. Truly remarkable image, minus the devastation and death it may cause..... ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™ #CAwx #Californiastorm #SoCalRain #SoCal #ElNino
@SoCalWXwatcher
SoCal Weather Watcher
@SoCalWXwatcher
3 months
GOES West Satellite - A powerful Low Pressure System spinning just off the coast of Northern California is directing an #AtmosphericRiver plume into #SoCal . The plume is thousands of miles long, and will likely remain directed into Southern California through at least Tuesday
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
4 months
Awesome storm coming in....
@US_Stormwatch
Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
4 months
Breathtaking satellite imagery of a stunning mid-latitude cyclone off the West Coast that will steer a significant atmospheric river into California tomorrow.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Quick Midday Update - @NWSCPC has spit out this forecast for the next few weeks. The date is April 26th, not January 26th. Unreal weather pattern CA is in and the West for that matter. More later when the afternoon models roll in, but somthing to watch. The confidence is 4 out of
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Evening Update - Well folks, we are almost here for the main event for #Hilary for the Southwest and Socal. Although she got downgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 3, she is still a major hurricane/cyclone. For the information on her, see the image post. That being said, all systems
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Morning Update - By now, every news outlet's main story is #Hilary . She is now a Cat 4 Major Hurricane, heading north to Baja Ca and into the southwestern part of CA. She will weaken overnight as she hits cooler waters in Baja before she makes landfall late Saturday night as
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Saturday Afternoon Update - Well folks, we are almost here and waiting for #Hilary . The hype with this storm is once in a century or lifetime, depending how old you are. I have posted the following images: - Updated Cone of #Hilary . She is sliding eastward ever so slightly,
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Quick Saturday Morning Update - By now, the media, @NWSLosAngeles , @NWSSanDiego has informed most people that the @NHC_Pacific has shifted the path of #Hilary a tad eastward. What this means is, and I have been saying this for last few days on this thread, is the main impact of
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Here ya go folks. Attention turns to the storm Sunday thru Tuesday. Here is the Euro Ens model. Folks, this is very concerning. Will discuss later.......
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@edwardsanthonyb
Anthony Edwards
@edwardsanthonyb
3 months
I normally avoid posting weather models, but if you live in Santa Barbara/Malibu I am BEGGING you to prepare like your life is on the line next week. 8-10 inches of rain expected in next 6 days, and this likely an underestimate. Forecast will change, but extremely worried. #CAwx
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Hope all of you had a great holiday weekend. Been some time since I have written a post, as I have been very busy with my day job. There is a lot of weather to discuss, so lets get into it. - The persistent cooler than normal weather in CA, especially on the CA coast is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
For those of you who are in #SoCal , you can follow this thread for updated information about the pending storm. #CAwx
@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - All Systems go for what cold be a historic event for the State of CA, up and down the coast. Major possible upper level bomb cyclone upper level low, is being the engine, as it is pulling in major subtropical and tropical moisture from over 4000+ miles away...and is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
4 months
Hello Followers - I have been trying for the past 3 days to get a discussion posted, but life has gotten in the way. However, I have carved out an hour to write an updated discussion, as there is a lot of discuss. Lets get into it. - As I discussed weeks ago, I stated there
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Look at this folks, a funnel cloud in San Diego!!! Wow! #CAwx #Californiastorm #SoCalRain #SoCal #ElNino #AtmosphericRiver #LArain #LosAngeles #Californiastorms #CaliforniaRain
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Doesn't look like the June gloom is going away, anytime soon.....thru June 16th, and the US Open. Will be a gloomy @USGA LACC! I really don't expect a real change into the June gloom until the end of June. Will the Continental high return for a heatwave for CA and SoCal?? I will
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@NWSLosAngeles
NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngeles
1 year
We hear you, May Gray is turning to June Gloom tomorrow & frankly it's getting old. Good news, the forecast shows a lower percentage of cloud cover for many areas each afternoon thru Sunday! Temps will remain on the cool side, but look for a little more sunshine. #CAwx #LAweather
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - Evening Update and Some notes: - The storm is here and it is affecting everyone in the state of #California . - Below are several model runs, with accumulated rain/liquid totals in CA thru Wednesday. It is impressive, especially in SoCal. This is going to be a 36
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
GM Followers - Brief Update: - Warm Front moved through last night over #SoCal and dumped light to moderate rain. - I reposted my update from last night. Not much has changed, but all the information is on this thread. - Currently, there is a lull in the action, but fully
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Tuesday Night Quick Update - Major 30+ year storm is poised to strike SoCal tomorrow, dumping record breaking snow in the local mountains. Check out the 0z GFS/Euro runs for snow fall....insane. Happened to be up in the SB mountains this past weekend, and although they need snow
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Monday Update - Hope everyone is doing well. The winter that keeps on coming has made people weary, filing property claims, wanting to move, and just done, as the historic winter continues, as another storm is forecasted to hit tonight in NorCal, and tomorrow and Wednesday for
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
7 months
Winter Outlook - 23/24 Well followers, here is my winter weather outlook for 23-24. Better late than never. I have been dealing with some stuff this past month as you know, but here it is. I am still trying to make my own maps, so might attach those later. This will also be
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Happy Friday - Quick CA update on June Gloom. Doesn't look to fully breakdown until the end of the month, per the EPS and the GFS. This weekend, low pressure returns and spotty tstorms and rain throughout the state. Next week looks to be wash, rinse and repeat week. Again, I
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
HI Folks - I have been hearing some chatter about another #Hilary type of TS going to be aimed and headed for Baja and into CA again. Currently, there are a few Tropical disturbances in the Eastern Pacific by Mexico, but there are no signs of another Hilary coming thru to CA.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Hi folks - Hope is everyone is having a more relaxed week than last week. Needed a few days to decompress from the TS #Hilary . I hope all of you weren't impacted to much, as some areas got hit pretty hard and are still recovering, where as other areas just got a good soaking.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
4 months
Quick Tuesday Night Update Followers - By now, the hype is real for a major pattern change in CA. As I discussed below yesterday, the pattern change is afoot. Here are some updates from today that I am seeing on trends: - Storm #1 - 1/31 Wed thru 2/2 Friday - I have posted the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
4 months
Hello Followers - I have been trying for the past 3 days to get a discussion posted, but life has gotten in the way. However, I have carved out an hour to write an updated discussion, as there is a lot of discuss. Lets get into it. - As I discussed weeks ago, I stated there
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Quick AM Update - The winter storm train continues, as the pattern has shifted from a cold/wet pattern to a warmer/wetter pattern. As I discussed over a week ago, the La Nina is decaying, and the MJO has been highly amplified in the western pacific, and effected the EAJ to
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Thanks Rich for posting this, as I was going to this am. Hilary is now official!! Something to watch. Here are the Euro and GEFS model runs from this am for accumulative rain thru the 25th. The totals have moved a bit further east on the model runs overnight, but still a lot of
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@RichIMET
Rich Thompson
@RichIMET
9 months
Latest on Hilary.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Per CFS, the trough looks to be over CA thru 1st week of July now.....
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@CAStormLover
Ronald Martinez
@CAStormLover
11 months
@LocalOnThe8 Itโ€™s usually 100 by now, this year has been unusually mild in the Central Valley.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Well folks, by now the hype is out about next week's pattern change in CA and out west. I am not 100% buying into the numbers below just yet, as we are 7+ days out, but this is something to keep an eye on. Below images are from - Euro Ensembles - GEFS - Canadian Ensembles -
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
GM Followers - Brief Update: - Warm Front moved through last night over #SoCal and dumped light to moderate rain. - I reposted my update from last night. Not much has changed, but all the information is on this thread. - Currently, there is a lull in the action, but fully
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - All Systems go for what cold be a historic event for the State of CA, up and down the coast. Major possible upper level bomb cyclone upper level low, is being the engine, as it is pulling in major subtropical and tropical moisture from over 4000+ miles away...and is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Wednesday Am Update - What a dynamic storm system, hitting most of CA the last 36 hours. As the upper level low ejects easterward, showers all over the state throughout the day. Quietier, but cool weather will start tomorrow through Sunday/Monday, but next week looks active.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - Been a crazy few days in #California , but we are on the tail end of the historic and record breaking AR rain/snow event. And folks, it is still going on. Warnings up and down the coast from LAC to San Diego County. LAC is getting more heavy rain totals now, so it is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Gm. The day has finally come. #Hilary is here. Fresh off the press....latest update. She is now a powerful TS. More updates later this am, but track and strength look the same. Be safe...we are just getting started! More soon!
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Evening Update - #Hillary has been downgraded to a CAT 1, as her winds are less as she heads into the Southwest. You can see the update from the @NHC_Pacific below on this thread, which I posted from. Therefore, here are my thoughts, which really haven't changed based on the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Impressive....even the 12Z run of the Euro is onboard
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@Brody_wx
Brody Cowing
@Brody_wx
9 months
Things are starting to get pretty serious for the Southwestern United States. Large amounts of rainfall are looking more likely as models are slowly converging on a tropical system heading into the Southwest US. I have never seen so much rain forecasted for the Southwest before
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Happy Thursday. Wanted to give everyone an update on the pattern change for next week, as it looks like summer is coming fast. After looking at the Euro weeklies today, the heat is starting next week and lasting for a long time. Temps will be running 10-15 degrees above normal
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Quick Model Update - The NBM (National Blend Model) came out and spit out this for Precipitation and winds. Take a look, depending where your area is, but winds over the mountains, coasts and foothills look very high now into the desert and rain totals look impressive. Depending
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
New Update Folks - The @NHC_Pacific just updated the path of #HILARY . It looks like it moved about 5 to 10 miles to the west. I also added the spaghetti models and it is looking pretty tight for a consensus to hit around SD. Will update everyone as often as they comes. Also,
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Unbelievable.... #CAwx #Californiastorm #SoCalRain #SoCal #ElNino #AtmosphericRiver #LArain #LosAngeles #SanFrancisco #Californiastorms #CaliforniaRain
@US_Stormwatch
Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
3 months
UCLA has recorded nearly 12 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, a 1 in 1000-year rainfall rainfall event for Westwood. A truly unprecedented storm in modern history for the region as an atmospheric river stalls over the region.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Nightly Update - After looking at the Euro Weeklies, the June gloom is going to stay around for awhile. After my discussion early this week, the gloom looks to stay around for most of the month. Beginning of July looks a bit warmer. Models are below, thru the end of the month. I
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Hope all of you had a great holiday weekend. Been some time since I have written a post, as I have been very busy with my day job. There is a lot of weather to discuss, so lets get into it. - The persistent cooler than normal weather in CA, especially on the CA coast is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Unreal pixs from 15k feet up over Mtn San Gregorio, with San Jacinto Mtn in the distance. It's unbelievable how much snow is still on the ground and mountains!!! It is Easter and practically mid April!! @NWSLosAngeles @NWSSanDiego @bensweather @GilMRosasII2
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Here ya go folks........pattern change for CA??
@jhomenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
5 months
An absolute unit of a Pacific Jet extension modeled at nearly 110kts on the EPS mean at a 13-day lead time. Fire up the blowtorch memes!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
@CALEBcsw @ChrisNTrevino SEC mafia cartel strikes again!!!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 months
It is coming folks....next few weeks.....
@BrunelShawn
Shawn Brunel
@BrunelShawn
2 months
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Folks - You know the upcoming storms are bad for CA and SoCal, when my NY peeps are discussion it in their blogs for NY. See below. Crazy....
@jhomenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
3 months
Model data is continuing to focus in on the potential for extreme rainfall in So. California over the next week. A Pacific Jet extension will aid in the development of a low pressure system, with precipitable water values 4+ sigma and rainfall totals of 10"+ on ensemble means.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Midday Monday update - Low pressure to hit the state of CA tonight, with light rain and t-storms. Marine layer at the coast is still spitting out mist. Long range - Looks like most of June is going to be socked in with gloom in CA on the coast, as the continental high tries to
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Quick Sunday night Discussion. What a beautiful weekend it was, a weak high pressure sat over CA and delivered a non marine layer day yesterday and semi non marine layer day for today...depending where you were. A closed low pressure system is poised to enter CA, and drop
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - Hope all of you are drying out in CA and the West Coast. What a storm cycle the past 3 weeks it has been for CA. Truly historic. Since my 30 day ban of posting the GFS American model has expired, I thought I leave you with these images of the GFS deterministic model
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
GM Followers - I am traveling today, so this will be brief. One last hurrah for the storm cycle tonight as a moderate slider is coming into the SoCal area later today and might dump close to another 1" of rain. After tonight, high pressure returns for the next 10+ days or so.
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Followers - Been a crazy few days in #California , but we are on the tail end of the historic and record breaking AR rain/snow event. And folks, it is still going on. Warnings up and down the coast from LAC to San Diego County. LAC is getting more heavy rain totals now, so it is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 years
Most people say I am negative, but I have some positive info for the long range. I believe the pattern will become fairly active 2nd week of March out west, per GFS EXT and Euro Weeklies. See for your self. Runs before March 3rd for total prep, and after March 3rd.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
4 months
Followers - Hope everyone is having a great week so far. There is tons of weather to discuss, so lets get into it below: - Record breaking storms hit parts of CA yesterday, with San Diego getting the brunt of it with record rain and flooding. Crazy stuff. As I discussed last
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Followers - Happy Monday! Hope all of you are safe and healthy. I was out of pocket most of the weekend, so sorry for the delay releasing an update. Below are some highlights of what I see and what the weather trends look like to finish out the year in CA: - The weather porn is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Monday Update - Major storm for CA and SoCal is on target and not much change for tonight thru Wednesday. I don't feel this is an ARSTORM, but will be a pretty strong storm nevertheless. Very high elevation snow, so the passes in SoCal will not be effected. I have attached the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Here ya go Followers - This is from my buddy @SoCalWXwatcher , showing an animation of the HRRR model for 48 hours. This model shows the AR Plume stalling over the LA area for a day. Now, we don't know if that will happens, but this is a good illustration that mother nature is in
@SoCalWXwatcher
SoCal Weather Watcher
@SoCalWXwatcher
3 months
02/03/24 0z HRRR Model's Simulated Radar Depiction through the next 48 Hours - Drizzle & Light Showers from warm sector rainfall in advance of a very potent system have already overspread portions of #SoCal . Rainfall intensity will increase on Sunday, with very heavy showers
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Happy Monday - Hope everyone had a good weekend. Is everyone ready for some rain/snow this week in CA??All systems go for the cut off lows to wobble around CA and deliver rain and Mountain snows. Again, the GFS is less bullish than the ICON or EURO, as you can see below, but
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Followers - Updated 2 pm MDT from @NHC_Pacific The path of TS #Hilary looks to be moving a tad eastward, actually heading over Palm Spring. Truly amazing.... The new ATCF models are showing the same thing, so the mountains and deserts are going to get the brunt of it. Hang in
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Followers - Some of you asked for the track and update from @NHC_Pacific . Here ya go. This is the spaghetti model tracks. Pretty good census on models on this, as it is going right thru the southwest today into NV, ID and into Canada.....crazy! #Hilary is just getting going.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Well folks, for those that complained about the marine layer, mist, pizzle, and cool temps for most of May and June, things are about to change. The Euro Ens. model below is showing the trough being replaced by the continental high migrating West. You can read this below in my
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Happy Monday and Happy Juneteenth!! I have been out of pocket most of past week working the @usopengolf . Was a truly memorable week and exhausting, but I found it funny that the weather one of the topics last week, with the pizzle, marine layer, mist, and wind later in the week
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Weather Porn Alert - The CFS is painting over 8+" of accumulated rain in DTLA thru the end of December.... ๐Ÿ˜‚
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Folks - If you look at the GEFS EXT model, the CMC and the Euro Weeklies below, there is not much for SoCal precipitation wise into middle of December. NorCal looks good tho. Keep in mind, these numbers take into account still the Cut off low that is still poised to hit CA
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Here is a good animation of what to expect for the next storm folks....
@RyanMaue
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
3 months
The area of low pressure tracks in San Francisco Bay later on Sunday, but the moisture plume continues into Southern California like a firehose.๐ŸŒง๏ธ This atmospheric river [๐ŸPineapple Express] will be long lasting and dump 8-12" of rainfall on areas around Los Angeles.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Sunday NFL Update - Hi folks. here is an update for this weeks weather in CA, with a pattern change for CA and SoCal. By now, you have seen me discuss the pattern change and temper the hype on this storm for next week. In fact, the 6" of rain in DTLA that some on this platform
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 years
CFS Forecast today for the month of March ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Followers - What a week it has been following and getting a direct hit from TS #Hilary . I have never been part of a tropical storm or hurricane for that matter, but that was a first. Numerous El Ninos, but this was different. The numerous shifts of the path were crazy, and to
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Early Morning quick thoughts - Here are some models runs for the storm of the century hype for SoCal next week. Currently, thru the 17th, here are the models runs. For DTLA, I am looking at .50/1.00" as of now thru the 17th. More later tonight as I am traveling today.........
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Monday Update - Followers, hope you had a great weekend. Below are the updates to the storm coming thru later tonight and hanging around thru the weekend: - #1 ) Updated the morning model outputs, with the NBM Model, GEFS and Euro Ens. Looks to be a good soaked, to be honest
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Hi Folks, here are some thoughts for the Rain in CA today and the extended: - Good cutoff low still spinning off the coast of CA for the next few days, and bringing impulses of rain, high elevation snow and tstorms off and on thru Sunday! Good change of pace from the dry, warm
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Good morning. I will have an update for SoCal regarding the cut off low system and the extended later today. I am out of pocket this morning. Thank you!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 years
Look at this blow torch over all of the West Coast for this weekend....wow. If this was during the summer, 120 degrees would be in store. Except it is middle of Feb, and it will be 95 in LA and surrounding areas........ Unreal
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Warning - @ReedTimmerAccu has made landfall in Santa Barbara!!! #CAwx #Californiastorm #SoCalRain #SoCal #ElNino #AtmosphericRiver #LArain #LosAngeles #SanFrancisco
@ReedTimmerUSA
Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
3 months
LIVE update from Santa Barbara where a high-end flooding event is possible this afternoon and overnight with potent atmospheric river event. Iโ€™ll be working the southern slopes of the Transverse Mountains later today, and possible the #tornado threat near Big Sur, California
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Wow
@BrandonCopicWx
Brandon Copic
@BrandonCopicWx
9 months
MASSIVE DEBRIS PLUG FLOODING HEADED FOR PALM SPRINGS! Crossed I-10! #CAwx @RadarOmega @ReedTimmerAccu @JimCantore LIVE: @NWSSanDiego
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Wednesday Evening update - Model runs are still on track for a major snow/rain event for SoCal thru Sunday. Unreal how the upper level low slides down the coast Friday, and stays off the coast south of Pt. Conception for most of the day and night, picking up a copious amounts of
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Updated Mid Afternoon Discussion - EPS 12Z Model Run is still showing pretty good amounts precipitation west of the Southwestern mountain ranges, and copious amounts east of the mountains. This is the cumulative amounts thru, Thursday, August 24th. I am also throwing in some wind
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Morning Update - By now, most of the national news on the West Coast is about Hilary, which is now becoming a major Hurricane/Cyclone. The graphic this am is from the @NWSSanDiego , and @NWSNHC , which illustrates where she is predicted to go. As I stated last night, the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Happy Saturday Followers - Thank you for all of the well wishes as I am recovering from a procedure this past week. As I start to mend up, I am turning my attention to a big change in the weather pattern out west this week. Very warm temps today in SoCal as I took a walk and was
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Quick Thursday night Followers - Been an active day in CA and in SoCal, as I discussed earlier today, the storm that came thru early this morning was the appetizer of things to come. For mow, zonal flow will dominate the west coast, as zonal flow has taken over. The PNW will
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Models are not quite picking up on this folks, as you can see on the Euro EPS today and GEFS....SoCal looks to get the tail end of these systems, but NorCal and PNW looks good. These totals are thru the next 10-14 days..... Stay Tuned!!!!
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@raindancewx
RaindanceWX
@raindancewx
6 months
CPC has the "dam break" aspect of the pattern I've been expecting for November in about two weeks now. Fingers crossed. The reds are consistent with a -PDO November, but green is consistent with El Nino. Storms have to cut through before we can get cold in the SW US.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
8 months
Happy Tuesday followers. Check out output on the CFS control model for the seasonal precipitation forecast for late fall/winter.....Crazy stuff! Blue means a lot of rain/snow, for those that are new to my blogs and discussions. Maybe I am wrong about El Nino. Time will
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
8 months
Happy Friday Folks - Hope everyone is having a good Friday and ready for the weekend. Been a few weeks since I have done a major update, as the day job has been keeping me busy. Below I am going to discuss the current climate in CA, which is a big change from the previous
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Happy Thanksgiving followers - Hope all of you and yours are having a great day and Holiday. I have gotten a lot of DM's and messages about the pattern change out west around the end of the month thru the beginning of December. Folks, has I have stated before, I am not sold on
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
All systems go folks for a pretty decent rain event for SoCal starting tomorrow thru Friday night. Totals from all major models as of tonight, below. 2-4" forecasted for DTLA thru the end of the period this week. All models are supporting it, with good jet extension, taping
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Monday Update - Followers, hope you had a great weekend. Below are the updates to the storm coming thru later tonight and hanging around thru the weekend: - #1 ) Updated the morning model outputs, with the NBM Model, GEFS and Euro Ens. Looks to be a good soaked, to be honest
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
3 months
Wednesday Quick Update - Followers, All systems are go for the start of the 10 day wet cycle for the West Coast. Most of the action will hit CA, but my friends in the PNW will get their share of rain/snow too. Please read my posts below on these threads, as the post last night
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
4 months
Quick Tuesday Night Update Followers - By now, the hype is real for a major pattern change in CA. As I discussed below yesterday, the pattern change is afoot. Here are some updates from today that I am seeing on trends: - Storm #1 - 1/31 Wed thru 2/2 Friday - I have posted the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
wow
@NewsSourceLA
News Source LA
@NewsSourceLA
1 year
Crazy! In #LakeTahoe , the staff at Bear Valley Ski Resort posted this before/after photo. Thatโ€™s a lot of snow!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
11 months
Happy Friday - Hope all of you have a great holiday weekend. Been slammed with my day job this past week, and haven't really looked at the models. After a few hours today, I checked it out. So here we go...... - Things are warming up out west with the mini heatwave that I
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Followers - Quick Update today: Well folks, the models and the climate out west are starting to show to more evidence of a pattern change in the trends, as I am seeing some model consistency for a pattern change after this weekend for the West. Another Santa Ana coming thru
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@realwxforecast
J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Folks - one postscript. I don't think I have ever seen an 8-14 day forecast from @NWSCPC , with the whole country above average temps in December thru the holidays. Insane! 65 degrees in NYC on XMAS?? Now they are showing the rain coming into CA in the extended, so something to
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
2 months
Unreal folks....amazing comeback. Dry for the next few weeks and then maybe more active weather the last week of the month to add to the snow pack....... #CAwx
@US_Stormwatch
Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
2 months
What an unbelievable comeback California's snowpack has made this year, going from just 28% of normal on January 1 to 104% of normal today. This pretty much guarantees that California will be drought-free again this summer for the second year in a row! #CAwx
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
@Ketkar4Amit If it peters out, and stays hot and dry after this weekend for CA, then I am quiting my night job discussing weather. You can mark that down.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Happy Thursday Folks: Hope all of you are doing well. If you follow me, you will know that SoCal and for the most part CA is way below average of rain/snow for this time of year. Currently, there are some chatter on X about how this El Nino is behaving like a typical La Nina.
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Oh boy. If this sets up and the Hudson Bay low gets parked...CA is in trouble water wise this winter......
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Followers - Here are the updated model runs from the NBM, EPS and GEFS thru Tuesday. Looks like a good 24-36 period of good totals rain wise. Again, mountains and Deserts will be under the gun later today. Monitor the @NWSLosAngeles @NWSSanDiego @NWSWPC @NHC_Pacific #Hilary is
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Gm. The day has finally come. #Hilary is here. Fresh off the press....latest update. She is now a powerful TS. More updates later this am, but track and strength look the same. Be safe...we are just getting started! More soon!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
@barkflight Lol Better than a Santa Ana heatwave, imo
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Final update before I shut down for the night. Here are some graphics on #Hilary - Cone hasn't change with the most current update. Forecast on Track - Precipitation Updates for SoCal. Will update everyone in the morning. Nite!
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Evening Update - Well folks, we are almost here for the main event for #Hilary for the Southwest and Socal. Although she got downgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 3, she is still a major hurricane/cyclone. For the information on her, see the image post. That being said, all systems
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Thursday PM update - For those of you who missed my winter outlook for 23/24, it is below on this thread. Medium range models are suggesting a pattern change by the middle of the month. EPS Weeklies have spit out this models runs. First one showing there is not much of
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
7 months
Winter Outlook - 23/24 Well followers, here is my winter weather outlook for 23-24. Better late than never. I have been dealing with some stuff this past month as you know, but here it is. I am still trying to make my own maps, so might attach those later. This will also be
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Quick Night update - Here are the model totals from the GEFS and the CMC Ensemble (the Euro is not out yet) thru 8/25 (next Thursday), from tonight, showing Hilary's output. Personally, I think the GFS is a bit overblown, due to the cooler waters that Hilary is going to hit and
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Morning Update - By now, everyone knows about Hilary. She was formed overnight and it headed to Baja CA and the desert/Southwest, and into SoCal. Below are the updated model plot paths, along with the EPS and the GEFS from this mornings model runs. Based on model output this am,
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Followers, Hope everyone had a good Holiday weekend. Here are some quick updates on the long range, which I am not totally sold on. I will have more time to dive into this, as there are some things changing with the Polar Vortex that will affect the lower 48, especially the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Happy Friday everyone. Below are some newer model runs, which are showing pretty much the same deal as yesterday. Euro is more bullish with the precp for CA in the long run with the cut-off lows spinning around CA, Snow in the Sierras, and way below average temps for the
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Happy Thursday Folks - Quick Update. Major pattern change headed to the West is still on track. We are going from a heatwave to a cooler/wetter pattern in a matter of 36 hours, starting this weekend. Models are all over the place with amounts of rain/snow, but Euro is a bit more
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
9 months
Reed Update!
@ReedTimmerUSA
Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
9 months
Intercept of supercell in Brawley, California with strong rotation in main convective band of Tropical Storm Hilary @accuweather
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
1 year
Quick Sunday night Discussion. What a beautiful weekend it was, a weak high pressure sat over CA and delivered a non marine layer day yesterday and semi non marine layer day for today...depending where you were. A closed low pressure system is poised to enter CA, and drop
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
5 months
Quick Saturday Update folks - I am going to be out of pocket until tomorrow night, but below are some graphics regarding the change in pattern out west for next week, starting tomorrow night: - Euro Ens and GEFS run today - Painting good precipitation totals for this upcoming
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Folks- a lot of you have corresponded with me about the pattern flipping to a wetter active pattern right around December 1st for CA. I looked at the deterministic GFS 0z run tonight and it is on fire for rain/snow for the first week of December in CA. That being said, will look
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Happy Monday Folks - Hope all of you had a good weekend. Wanted to give everyone an update on the climate from my POV and the trends, as we head into Thanksgiving holiday weekend: - The cutoff low, which gave some areas in CA record breaking rainfall last weekend, and other
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J. Mesh, AMS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
@realwxforecast
6 months
Happy Monday Folks - Hope all of you had a good weekend. Wanted to give everyone an update on the climate from my POV and the trends, as we head into Thanksgiving holiday weekend: - The cutoff low, which gave some areas in CA record breaking rainfall last weekend, and other
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