Nataliya Bugayova @nataliabugayova Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

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Non-resident Fellow & fmr Russia Research Team Lead @TheStudyofWar | Views are my own.

Joined January 2010

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

My latest with @TheStudyofWar . The Kremlin’s principal effort is to force the US to accept and reason from Russian premises to decisions that advance Russia’s interests, not ours. The Kremlin is not arguing with us. It is trying to enforce assertions about the Kremlin-generated

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

2 months

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. That the war is unwinnable due to Russia’s dominance is a Kremlin information operation & a glimpse into Russia's real strategy & only hope of success.🧵

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

1/10 Russia’s foothold in the southeast would constitute a permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and even survival. Control over Ukraine remains Putin’s goal, and that goal is not going to change. My latest in the @ForeignPolicy

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The Window To Expel Russia From Ukraine Is Now

Russia is digging in across the southeast.

foreignpolicy.com

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

"Negotiations cannot end the Russian war against Ukraine; they can only pause it. They can only create the conditions from which Putin or a Putinist successor will contemplate renewing the attack on Ukraine’s independence" - a must-read from Fred Kagan

The Case Against Negotiations with Russia

Negotiations cannot end the Russian war against Ukraine; they can only pause it.

www.criticalthreats.org

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

1/18 Ukraine may soon face a new threat in this war—Russia’s ceasefire offer. It seems odd to say that a ceasefire is a threat. The default position in the West is to seize the earliest opportunity to “stop the fighting.”

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

6 months

My latest with @TheStudyofWar : Allowing Russia to win in Ukraine would be a self-imposed strategic defeat for the US. Russia targets what it perceives to be the US center of gravity — America’s will to act. The Kremlin is using its information-based warfare together with military

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

6 months

NEW: Putin needs the US to choose inaction in Ukraine, otherwise Russia cannot win. If Russia wins in Ukraine, @nataliabugayova says in a new essay, US adversaries will learn that America can be manipulated into abandoning its own interests in a winnable fight. Thread (1/6):

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 months

The US still does not fully grasp the nature of the Russian threat, Russia’s sources of power and weakness, and the Russian way of war – including reflexive control. This knowledge gap is reflected in the prevailing US national security assessment that, while Russia poses the

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

2 months

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. That the war is unwinnable due to Russia’s dominance is a Kremlin information operation & a glimpse into Russia's real strategy & only hope of success.🧵

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Nataliya Bugayova

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1 year

My latest with @TheStudyofWar . US should recognize that Russia's intent vs. Ukraine is inflexible. We should stop expending resources trying to change a reality we do not control and focus on what we can shape plenty: denying Russia’s ability to wage a war against Ukraine. 1/

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

1 year

NEW: The #Kremlin ’s intent regarding #Ukraine is maximalist & inflexible. The West should stop trying to change a reality it doesn't control and focus on what it can shape plenty: denying #Russia ’s ability to wage war against Ukraine. - @nataliabugayova

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Nataliya Bugayova

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8 months

My latest with @TheStudyofWar . Ukrainian forces have adapted. Now is not the time for Western doubt but for the West to embrace Ukraine’s way of war and commit to sustaining Ukraine on the battlefield. 1/

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

8 months

New from ISW's @nataliabugayova : “Ukrainian forces have adapted. #Ukraine ’s military decision-making is sound. Now is not the time for Western doubt but for the West to embrace Ukraine’s way of war & commit to sustaining Ukraine on the battlefield.” More:

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2 years

1/Putin's partial mobilization order is an acknowledgment that Russia is failing to accomplish its objectives in Ukraine, I tell @IamAmnaNawaz . We discussed the impact of Putin's decision on the battlefield, its domestic implications, and the likelihood of escalation.

@NewsHour

PBS NewsHour

2 years

Putin said more manpower is needed to win a war not just against Ukraine, but against its western backers. @nataliabugayova joined @IamAmnaNawaz to discuss.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

5/10 The window to expel Russia is now. The Kremlin is trying to absorb and likely annex Ukraine’s southeast, but Russia has not yet solidified its control over the occupied areas.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

9/10 While Russian forces have begun to entrench defensively in the southeast, they are still trying to advance. The West must help the Ukrainians get a broader counteroffensive underway before Russia transitions to a coherent defense, which it has not yet done.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

The Kremlin’s exploitation of the Western argument for “stopping the bloodshed” conceals a critical nuance. Stopping the fighting does not stop the killing when it comes to Russia. The killing continues in Russian torture chambers on territory that Russia occupies – a process

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

The gap between Putin's intent and capability:) I've reproduced a search for 'How to Leave Russia' on Google Trends originally flagged by OperativnoZSU on Telegram. Here are some of the screenshots on what's surging in anticipation of Putin's speech.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

8/10 The West’s attention is focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but this Western attention is not a constant nor a given. Putin has achieved some of his advances over the past 20 years simply by outlasting the West in the information space.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

10/10 The less successful the Russian offensive is in the east, the more critical the Kremlin’s need to secure the areas it has already seized will become.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 months

Russia is not entitled to sanctuaries when it is trying to erase a nation. The West must abandon the Russian information line that Russia, having launched an unprovoked invasion, can demand immunity from attack with Western or Ukrainian weapons. The US must remove any existing

@JimmySecUK

Jimmy Rushton

2 months

The Washington Post confirms - via an interview with President Zelensky himself - previous reports in the Financial Times that the Biden Administration had "warned against" Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

2/10 Russian control of the southeast would subject the people there to perpetual Russian atrocities. Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines will have limited ability to defend themselves and will be subject to Russian atrocities as observed in Bucha and throughout Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

7/10 The longer Russia is allowed to stay, the costlier it becomes to drive it out. Time also gives Putin an opportunity to adapt the Russian people to the idea of a long war and put the Russian economy on a wartime footing.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

11/It's Ukraine's and Ukraine's decision only whether to continue running that risk. So far Ukraine has chosen to run that risk – in part because the alternative, for many, is worse. It's Bucha. It's Izyum.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

Now is the time to help Ukraine accelerate its campaign to liberate its people and its territories.

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

2 years

🧵 #Ukraine has the initiative and is securing a major victory in #Kherson . The coming months are a window of opportunity for Ukraine to expand its gains and prevent #Russia from consolidating its defenses, which a ceasefire would let Moscow do.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

3/10 A Russian military foothold in the southeast would threaten Moldova, the Black Sea region, and NATO. It would make any scenario to end this war costlier in lives and resources.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

6/10 Russia is approaching the limits of the combat-capable manpower it can make available for the war in the short term. Mobilization, if Putin pursues it at all, would take months to put new, usable combat troops into Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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5 months

A Russian victory would create an ugly world in which the atrocities associated with Russia’s way of war and way of ruling the populations under its control are normalized. More in my @TheStudyofWar assessment on the price of losing Ukraine: .

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@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

6 months

NEW: Putin needs the US to choose inaction in Ukraine, otherwise Russia cannot win. If Russia wins in Ukraine, @nataliabugayova says in a new essay, US adversaries will learn that America can be manipulated into abandoning its own interests in a winnable fight. Thread (1/6):

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

Resurfacing my March @TheStudyofWar assessment of risks of any Russian ceasefire offer amid another wave of misguided ceasefire discussions. These risks still stand. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty.

@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

1/18 Ukraine may soon face a new threat in this war—Russia’s ceasefire offer. It seems odd to say that a ceasefire is a threat. The default position in the West is to seize the earliest opportunity to “stop the fighting.”

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

4/10 The Kremlin will likely try to link its territorial gains across Ukraine and potentially beyond by annexing or otherwise integrating other territories that Russia illegally occupies.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

22 days

A reminder that Russia is not entitled to sanctuaries when it is trying to erase a nation. The West must abandon the Russian information line that Russia, having launched an unprovoked invasion, can demand immunity from attack. A must-read assessment from @georgewbarros .

@georgewbarros

George Barros

22 days

Russian aircraft can strike Kharkiv City indefinitely without ever leaving the sanctuary of Russian airspace. Kharkiv City lies 40 kilometers from Russia’s international border with Ukraine. Russia’s glide bombs have a glide range of 40-60 kilometers.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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11 months

My latest with @TheStudyofWar . The West risks handing the Kremlin another opportunity to prolong its war in Ukraine if it fails to resource Ukraine’s sustained counteroffensive. 1/

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

11 months

NEW: The West risks handing the #Kremlin another opportunity to prolong its war in #Ukraine if it fails to resource Ukraine’s sustained counteroffensive, writes ISW #Russia Fellow @nataliabugayova : Delays and fragmented aid are exactly what allowed Russia

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Nataliya Bugayova

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1 year

Ukraine will not liberate all the Russian-occupied territory in a single counteroffensive and will require several successive counteroffensives to win the war. The US must prepare to resource Ukraine's successive efforts. More in my @TheStudyofWar piece:

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

@ikhurshudyan

Isabelle Khurshudyan

1 year

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”

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1 year

Negotiations, ceasefires, and peace deals are not off-ramps but rather on-ramps for the Kremlin to renew its attack on Ukraine in the future under conditions that advantage Russia. More in my latest @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

@business

Bloomberg

1 year

Vladimir Putin said that Russia is “prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process.” Via @AP

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

2/17 But while some ceasefires lead to peace, others lead to more war—as the Russians have repeatedly shown. Those seeking enduring peace must resist any Russian ceasefire offer that sets conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms or gives Russia leverage on Ukraine.

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2 years

1/ Putin is consolidating his power projection system around those willing to pursue his maximalist goals in Ukraine, increasingly relying on a smaller cadre of devoted followers and a silent majority who will simply comply. My latest at @TheStudyofWar :

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

My latest with @TheStudyofWar . Putin is on a path to disappoint all elements of his power projection system. It does not make him imminently vulnerable. Russian military failures, however, will worsen the schism within Putin’s regime.

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

2 years

ISW's @nataliabugayova : Military setbacks will likely worsen schisms in #Putin ’s regime, but Western leaders shouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to get his regime or the Russian people “in line” nor #Russia ’s ability to normalize a new worse reality.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

Many of you around the world have asked me how to help Ukraine. Here are at least 7 ways. The list will grow. If you have verified additions, please PM. 1. Join rallies in your city:

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2 years

Russian military failures will worsen the schism within Putin’s regime and likely increasingly require Putin to focus on domestic issues. The West thus must help Ukraine make Russia fail on the battlefield faster. Every day of Russian occupation also means further atrocities.

@holmescnn

Michael Holmes

2 years

Further setbacks for #Putin in #Ukraine could see an inner circle fracture between hardliners and those who fear a long term loss of Russian power - @nataliabugayova . Domestically, Western leaders "should not underestimate Putin’s ability to ... to normalize a new worse reality"

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2 years

16/17 As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, the West should provide Ukraine with everything it needs to win and resist Russian ceasefire offers that give Putin leverage on Ukraine.

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2 years

17/17 Faster Western assistance is critical to helping Ukrainian forces maintain their momentum and reducing the number of lives it takes to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty. The text is here:

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

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2 years

12/Additionally, such a strike is unlikely to break Ukraine's will to fight, which is one of the two key centers of gravity of this war – along with Western support.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

10/While we cannot rule out Putin's use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, there are two critical points worth stating. First, Ukraine has been taking on that risk since the day it chose to push back on Russia’s full-scale invasion.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine have not changed and likely never will. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty. My latest @TheStudyofWar .

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

3/17 Russia is on the ropes in Ukraine today. It has not achieved any of Putin’s central objectives. The Russian army is suffering damage that will take years to repair if repair is even possible.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

9/17 Russia has a long history of ceasefire violations. It violated ceasefires in Syria and framed its troop rotations as “withdrawals” to buy time and regroup, as @JennyCafarella analyzed in detail. The Kremlin has also repeatedly violated ceasefires in Ukraine since 2014.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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11 days

A reminder that negotiations, ceasefires, and peace deals are not off-ramps but rather on-ramps for the Kremlin to renew its attack on Ukraine in the future under conditions that advantage Russia. They are means to the same ends—full control of Ukraine and eradication of

@KyivIndependent

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

12 days

⚡️ Putin looking for ceasefire to cement gains in Ukraine, Reuters reports citing sources. Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to a ceasefire that recognizes the current front lines on the battlefield but will fight on if Ukraine and its allies do not agree, Reuters

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

6/17 Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine have not changed and likely never will. Putin’s goals in Ukraine always exceeded countering NATO or forcing Ukraine into neutrality. Putin has made it clear he will accept nothing less than Russian control over Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

4/17 Russian forces are regrouping and preparing to launch a new campaign. But Russian units are badly damaged and repairing them will take time. If the currently planned Russian push in Ukraine’s east does not quickly go Moscow’s way, Putin might offer a ceasefire to buy time

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

12/17 Driving Russian forces out of Ukraine, especially from the south, is critical to Ukraine’s long-term viability, given the south’s military and economic significance. Ukraine might be able to do that with proper Western support.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

8/17 The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

6/Equipping these forces will be another challenge, and the shortcomings of #Russia 's defense industrial base will only compound this problem. It is essential for that reason that the West keeps and expands its export controls on electronics.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

5 months

The ground truths of this war have not changed: Russia still explicitly intends to erase Ukraine as a concept; Ukraine’s will to fight remains strong; and Ukraine’s will combined with the West’s collective capability (which dwarfs Russia’s) can defeat Russia on the battlefield.

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

6 months

NEW: Putin needs the US to choose inaction in Ukraine, otherwise Russia cannot win. If Russia wins in Ukraine, @nataliabugayova says in a new essay, US adversaries will learn that America can be manipulated into abandoning its own interests in a winnable fight. Thread (1/6):

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2 years

15/17 The Kremlin has effectively used ceasefires to muddy the diplomatic waters in the past. And the West has shown that it does not cope well with Russia-introduced ambiguity—especially in long-lasting conflicts.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

8 months

The Kremlin’s ability to sustain a long war in Ukraine is not a given — it disproportionately depends on whether Russia gets the time and space to rebuild its capabilities. Enabling further successful Ukrainian counteroffensives will deny the Kremlin a breather to replenish its

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

8 months

The current debate over US aid to #Ukraine is filled with terms such as "long war," or "proxy war." But, as ISW #Russia Fellow @nataliabugayova wrote in April, that debate is a misframing of the conflict and what the United States must do:

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2 years

5/17 Any consideration of a Russian ceasefire offer must take account of six primary risks. The full text is here:

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2 years

7/17 Ukraine has fended off Putin’s attempts to control Ukraine for years: by denying the Kremlin’s proxies the ability to dominate Ukraine’s politics in 2004 and 2013; by halting Russia’s offensive in 2014 and refusing Putin’s manipulative peace frameworks for the past 8 years.

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23/The West must also be laser-focused on depriving Russia of military technology. Putin will not hesitate to throw additional people at the problem in Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

11/17 Russia can use a ceasefire to consolidate gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can hope for. A ceasefire would allow Russia to focus on consolidating its gains in the south, which would inevitably mean increased terrorizing of the local population.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

13/17 Russian forces are militarily controlling some places, like Kherson, but they cannot yet govern them. The local population, including many Russian speakers, is challenging Russia’s rule despite Russia’s brutal efforts to force the locals into submission.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

14/17 The Kremlin will use any ceasefire to introduce ambiguity in the information space. Russia is on the defensive in the information space domestically and globally. The Kremlin would use a ceasefire to put Ukraine’s forces on the defensive by blaming them for any violations.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

Russia is hijacking and substituting key concepts of Western debate, such as notions of peace, defense and escalation, contributing to Western category errors. [Peace = Surrender. Resisting Russian Aggression = Escalation.] No one should be confused about verbs when it comes to

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

2 months

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. That the war is unwinnable due to Russia’s dominance is a Kremlin information operation & a glimpse into Russia's real strategy & only hope of success.🧵

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2 years

10/17 A ceasefire is one of the few options Putin has available to him to interrupt Ukraine’s initiative, as well as to shift the Russian invasion off the losing trajectory.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

5/Many Russians support the war rhetorically but are not willing to fight in it. #Russia will also face limitations in throughput and deployment of these forces – both efforts require officer cadre – an increasingly diminishing resource and bottleneck in the Russian military.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

2/Putin launched a full-scale invasion of #Ukraine in February with an insufficient force that's since been exhausted in pursuit of limited gains, an error in campaign design from which Russia has yet to recover.

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Nataliya Bugayova

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2 years

7/ We should not be overly dismissive of the mobilization either. We should watch how Russia will integrate this force, how it will train it, and the resulting effect it will produce on the battlefield, which we are unlikely to see until 2023.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

I wrote in May that Bucha was an observable microcosm of a deliberate Russian terror campaign against Ukrainians. Helping Ukraine liberate its people and territories is the only way to stop Russian atrocities and prevent future ones.

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

@USAmbKyiv

Ambassador Bridget A. Brink

2 years

Horrific news of a mass grave in Izyum should reinforce our collective resolve to hold Russia accountable for its atrocities and to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its homeland and liberate its citizens suffering horribly under Russia’s forces.

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2 years

8/ #Putin 's value proposition to his base for many years has been a promise of a "great Russia." This value proposition is being challenged now, in part because of Russian setbacks in # #Ukraine . He is not imminently vulnerable, but he's more vulnerable than he has been in years.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

The West is a giant that – at times – behaves like a mouse when it comes to Russia. All it needs to do is stand up. The power dynamic favors the West — and Ukraine, if the West decides to mobilize on behalf of Ukraine. Mobilizing would mean surging the West's military production,

@john_sipher

John Sipher

2 months

For Christ sake. We have a historic opportunity to defeat an enemy who has been at war with us for years. Putin is destroying everything that matters to us. He is weak now. Stop being so timid and act like a superpower. Give Ukraine what they need to win!

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

3/Efforts to replenish Russia's troop shortage short of mobilization have failed. A call for a partial mobilization is thus Putin’s attempt to reconcile the gap between his unchanged intent – which is to control all of Ukraine - and Russia's rapidly degrading capability to do so.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

4/The mobilization is unlikely to close the gap between Putin’s intent and capability in the short-term - if at all. Russia will likely face several challenges with recruiting and integrating its force, both qualitative and quantitative:

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

But sanctions are undoubtedly degrading Russia's military/DIB capabilities and making it harder to sustain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

@stephenwertheim

Stephen Wertheim

@stephenwertheim

2 years

Because Washington is averse to evaluating the effectiveness of the economic sanctions it proliferates, it is worth noting the record of sanctions so far in the Ukraine war: they failed to deter the invasion and have failed to stop the war.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

9/ #Putin is trying to reconcile irreconcilable realities - keeping up this promise of the "great Russia," his eroding capability to deliver on it, as well as the unwillingness of the Russian people to fight in this war.

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

Putin’s intent toward Ukraine has not changed and likely never will. Putin’s intent will most likely outlast him—by design. Russia will use any territory it keeps in Ukraine to stage future attacks. 3/

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

Always a privilege to back in Kyiv with General Petraeus and this great delegation. Russia cannot defeat Ukraine - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success in this war is to

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

The Kremlin's intent to control Ukraine will likely outlast Putin, by design. Putin is indoctrinating his goals into Russian formal legislation, information space, and society. More in my latest assessment: 1/3

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

Negotiations, ceasefires, and peace deals are not off-ramps but rather on-ramps for the Kremlin to renew its attack on Ukraine in the future under conditions that advantage Russia. 2/

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

11 months

The West must learn a lesson from last year and invest proactively in sustaining Ukraine’s initiative to deny Russia the time to reconstitute. The West should focus on enabling Ukraine to do what works, not try to enable Ukraine to do what the West thinks it would do. 6/

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

9 months

The West must learn a key lesson from last year and invest proactively in sustaining Ukraine’s initiative to deny Russia the time to reconstitute. This is key to denying Russia's prolongation of the war, as I've written in July.

Institute for the Study of War

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@georgewbarros

George Barros

9 months

We made the mistake of not proactively empowering the Ukrainians following Ukraine's successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in winter 2022-2023. Russia's respite over the winter helped the Russians regroup and dig in. Hopefully we won't make that mistake again.

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to accept a Russian ceasefire offer that sets conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms. More on risks of any Russian ceasefire offer in my @TheStudyofWar piece.

Institute for the Study of War

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@KyivIndependent

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

2 years

⚡️China's Xi agrees with Macron on urgency of ceasefire in Ukraine. Chinese leader Xi Jinping “agreed on the urgency of a ceasefire” in Ukraine during a call with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, the Élysée Palace said in a statement.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

11 months

Sustained Ukrainian operations on the battlefield that continuously – even if gradually – drive Russian forces out of Ukraine, will likely have compounding effects on Putin’s ability to sustain the war. 10/10

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

9 months

1/3 My key points to the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv: There is no indication that Putin is seeking any sort of offramp. Any efforts to try to change Putin's intent just through talks is a pre-determined failed policy. Thanks, @anneapplebaum , for the discussion.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

In light of events in Russia, resurfacing my assessment from October forecasting that Putin was even then on track to disappoint multiple competing factions in Russia that he relies on to sustain his regime and the war in Ukraine.

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

2/We should not underestimate Putin’s ability to stay in power nor Russia’s ability to normalize a new worse reality. However, Putin is on a path to disappoint all elements of his power projection system, as he is consolidating this system around conflicting objectives.

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

A reminder that Russia is not entitled to sanctuaries when it is trying to erase a nation. The West must abandon the Russian information line that Russia, having launched an unprovoked invasion, can demand immunity from attack with Western or Ukrainian weapons. More in our

@KyivIndependent

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

2 months

⚡US not supporting Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, Blinken says. The U.S. has "neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside of its territory," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at press conference on April 2.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

25/This makes the question of the Russian ability to produce heavy and advanced weapons one of the most essential dynamics of the next few years. Efforts to degrade Russia’s military-industrial complex should be a priority for the West and Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

8 months

Crimea has been an anchor of Russia’s power projection in the region. It continues to provide strategic military benefits to Russia. Ukraine is rightfully focused on depriving Russia of these benefits by making Crimea increasingly untenable for the Russian forces. More in our

@tggrove

Thomas Grove

8 months

Russia has based its Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol since 1783. Increasing Ukrainian attacks on the fleet however, have forced it to withdraw the bulk of its naval force to safer harbors W/ @jmalsin

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

My latest with @TheStudyofWar . The debate about the US facing a “long war” in Ukraine is misframed. The catchall phrase “long war” is skewed by legacy US thinking about wars, Kremlin information operations, and the inherent difficulties in parsing battlefield realities. 1/

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

1 year

NEW from @nataliabugayova : The debate about the US facing a “long war” in #Ukraine is misframed. Failing to resource all of the required Ukrainian counteroffensives — not just the next one — will protract #Russia ’s war & increase the risks for the US.⬇️

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

As I explained to CSPAN last month, we are entering a phase wherein Ukraine will again have an opportunity to capitalize on a culminating Russian offensive. The question if whether the West supplies Ukraine with what it needs to seize this opportunity.

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine One Year Later

Institute for the Study of War's Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova talked about the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

8 months

My latest with @KatStepanenko and Fred Kagan: "Weakness Is Lethal: Why #Putin Invaded #Ukraine and How the War Must End." 1/

Institute for the Study of War

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@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

8 months

"Weakness Is Lethal: Why #Putin Invaded #Ukraine and How the War Must End." Latest from ISW's @nataliabugayova , @katstepanenko & Fred Kagan of @criticalthreats : Key takeaways 🧵⬇️

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2 years

10/ Putin is on a trajectory to disappoint the extreme nationalists rallying around the idea of a total victory in Ukraine, which he cannot deliver. Even the most extreme options are unlikely to bridge the gap between Russia’s capabilities and Putin’s unchanged goals in Ukraine.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

Putin will not hesitate to sacrifice more of his forces in Ukraine. This makes the question of the Russian ability to produce and maintain heavy weapons one of the key dynamics in this war. Denying Russia’s military-industrial complex access to global markets is essential. 11/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

The US thus must help Ukraine liberate its territories and people through a large-scale counteroffensive or risk facing the same challenge with the same escalation risks under worse conditions in the future. 17/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

22/The West must help Ukraine make Russia fail on the battlefield faster. Russia cannot reverse its lost momentum in Ukraine rapidly. Ukraine has a window of opportunity to further liberate its territories and people.

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

Indeed. Russia used filtration camps during its brutal wars in Chechnya to establish a state system of terror and intimidate the local population. Atrocities are a part of the Russian way of war in Ukraine and beyond. More in our @TheStudyofWar piece:

Institute for the Study of War

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@USEmbassyKyiv

U.S. Embassy Kyiv

2 years

Putin's playbook doesn't change. At filtration camps in Chechnya, Russia beat, tortured and executed civilians. We #standwithUkraine .

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

5 months

A Russian victory in Ukraine would present the West with a reconstituted and emboldened Russia that is more determined to undermine the US. There is no going back to the pre-2022 status quo. The US is on track to be blindsided by Russia’s transformation — again. More in my latest

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

5 months

3/ "A Russian victory in Ukraine is a nearly guaranteed path to another Putin or worse, however, because of the political imperatives that an empowered nationalist community would create."

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

1/3 Russia is hijacking key concepts of Western debate about this war, such as notions of peace and defense, contributing to Western category errors about both. The West has been non-escalatory toward Russia for years to the point of self-deterrence and ceding its own interests.

@RALee85

Rob Lee

2 months

Interesting chapter from Alexander Bick who led the NSC's Russia-Ukraine Tiger Team on the Biden administration's thinking during the Russian buildup: "Over the fall, the administration was trying to balance two contradictory objectives—to ensure that Ukraine had the

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

Ukraine has crossed many of Putin’s supposed red lines, from liberating what Russia constitutionally claims to be its land to attacking the Crimean Bridge. Each time, the Kremlin did not escalate but rather reshaped its narrative to explain away its losses. 16/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 months

The Kremlin forces the West to dedicate energy to an irrelevant discussion about whether Ukraine has the “right” to be a state or a nation. No country with a seat in the US and recognized by the overwhelming majority of states in the world has an obligation to prove its right to

@wartranslated

WarTranslated (Dmitri)

2 months

In a newly released media clip, Putin once again dismisses Ukraine's right to sovereignty by saying that he's fighting for "his historical lands". He says the idea that he's going to fight with NATO is "complete nonsense designed to racket money from their [NATO] population" due

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

The inflexibility of the Kremlin’s intent goes beyond Ukraine. If Russia solidifies its gains in Ukraine, the Kremlin will most certainly try to complete the absorption of Belarus and—critically—link its military gains between Ukraine and Belarus. 4/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

Fortunately, it has never been just about the Kremlin’s intent. Russia’s ability to act on its intent also matters. Constraining Russia’s capability to pursue its aggression is both possible and the only approach that has changed the Kremlin’s behavior in the past. 5/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

The most immediate requirement is ensuring that Ukraine preserves its momentum on the battlefield—even if Russia launches a renewed offensive in the winter of 2022-23. Ukraine has momentum and is on track to liberate more of its territory and people if properly supported. 8/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

The more the Kremlin loses on the battlefield, the more it invests in perception manipulation—a key example is the re-emergence of the ceasefire narrative. If Russia gets a reprieve, it will be able to pivot back to one of the few things it does well—manipulate perceptions. 13/

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

1/2 Russia revived its “filtration” concept in Ukraine. Many forget that Russia used 'filtration camps' during its brutal wars in Chechnya to establish a state system of terror and intimidate the local population.

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@nataliabugayova

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

5 months

Altering America’s will is no small thing. America is an idea. America is a choice. America is a belief in the value of action. US domestic resilience and global power come in no small part from people and countries choosing the US and from Americans preserving their agency to

@TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War

5 months

. @nataliabugayova : Russia seeks to shape US behavior to act against its interests and values, to strip the US of the will to act altogether, & to convince the world that the US can & should be dismissed. The Kremlin is engaged in several lines of effort in support of these goals:

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Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

1 year

The West and Ukraine should focus on denying the following Russian capabilities, which are essential to Russia’s efforts to strip Ukraine of its statehood: 7/ -Momentum -Territory -Core military capabilities -Offset capabilities/ability to pivot

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