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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

We are a bit confused about this statement. If they left out ballots received via USPS shouldn't they be postmarked? @AldermanHopkins @MaryAnnAhernNBC

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Good Morning Political Junkies! Next up is Clerk of the Circuit Court. Mariyana Spyropoulos leads Iris Martinez 35%-22% with 43% undecided. With leaners included, it becomes a 57%-43% lead. Leaners are evenly split and undecideds are clealy high. This race is

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Seriously?

Mary Ann Ahern

@MaryAnnAhernNBC

3 months

New confusion … #statesatty race: @ChicagoElection says there’s 2,800 provisional ballots left, but a document shows it’s 1,800 In a tight race 1K ballots is ALOT of votes to miscommunicate.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

4 months

Coming Soon!!! We will be releasing polling numbers for Cook County races including SA, Clerk, and Supreme Court.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Over the next 36 hours we will be releasing the toplines for the Cook County Supreme Court, County Clerk. and State's Attorney's races. We will provide a link to the full report at the end. First up is the Supreme Court. Our polling shows Cunnignham up 42%-15% with 43%

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@ChiTownIndy @AldermanHopkins @MaryAnnAhernNBC If you go to @AldermanHopkins you will see a tweet where election staff informed him that most of the remaining ballots are dropbox wo a postmark. Dropbox voting ended 5 days ago. They owe the public an explanation as to why they haven't been counted yet.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Our current thoughts on the Harris/Burke race: We've been consistent since election night that this race was too close to call. We fully expected that the later arriving VBM ballots would favor Harris much than Burke. There is a non-fraudulent reason for this. A thread-

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

We promise State's Attorney numbers are coming tonight. But as an appetizer we have the MWRD. This is 4 candidates for 3 spots. Kari Steele leads with Marcelino Garcia in a strong 2nd. Waller and Porgozelski are fighting for the final spot.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

In the Burke/Harris election we have a dead heat. 21-21 with a whopping 58% undecided. Cross tabs and the polling memo are in a link below the fold. What is not in the memo are important intangibles that may end up deciding the race. Burke is winning the money

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

As of this post Burke leads Harris by 2015 votes. We have been consistently saying this race is too close to call since election night. It still is. That said, in our opinion this is the best position Burke has been in. We have limited knowledge of how many votes are left to

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@AldermanHopkins @ChiTownIndy @MaryAnnAhernNBC @AldermanHopkins We certainly appreciate your information. We've been saying since election night this isn't over and have explained why Harris was likely to do better with late VBM. But we haven't seen a clarification about said confusion. They owe one. Drop box ballots /1

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@AldermanHopkins @ChiTownIndy @MaryAnnAhernNBC /2 don't trickle in like VBM. Those ballots should have been counted by now. It may not be fraud but we are witnessing incompetence.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

The Bost - Bailey numbers are here. While Bost has a lead, the race is not over. A link to the full polling memo is below. Both candidates have high favorables. Bost +46.6 Bailey +39.7. Bost leads on the initial ballot 45.2 to 38.7.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

There is more to understanding the numbers than reading the toplines. While many were ready to call the State's Attorney race we were on a podcast giving people pause. We knew the race would tighten. Harris will likely do well with the remaining VBM.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

We are releasing Bost / Bailey poll results likely by Wednesday. How much will the Trump endorsement help Bost? Make your predictions in the comments below!

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@irvineghost20 @Trepadacio911 @MattPodgorski9 I don't believe that article includes the suburban outstanding ballots. She'll have to hold that lead with all the ballots left there.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

1 month

Read our poll on Mayor Johnson's numbers:

Johnson dog-paddles into second year with approval numbers under water

As he flips the calendar on his first year in office, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson faces an array of challenges, not the least of which is the need to dig out from a net approval rating of -29%.

www.chicagobusiness.com

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

In Chicago, the later ballots are coming in 61-39 for Harris. While many are screaming foul, there is a couple of normal reasons for this and we've seen it in other races. When a VBM ballot arrives is an indication of how a voter is likely to vote. Late arriving voters are

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

be counted. The county will count 1000 tomorrow and the city apparently has 1500. We are not sure if that includes provisionals. Plus how many outstanding ballots will still arrive via mail. At the margins Harris is getting there needs to be about 10K more votes.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

with additional ballot counting in Chicago. There are apparently many more votes to be counted in the suburbs. We do expect gains there, but not to the same extent as the city. This will be tight! All that said, we will address the "found" ballot situation later.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@irvineghost20 Late VBM's tend to be younger voters and more progressive than other voters. I suspect Harris keeps gaining ground.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

State's Attorney race will be next.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

a blowout. It was. We even has the MWRD district order correct out of the 4 candidates. We showed the State's Attorneys race as a tie with a TON of undecideds. It still isn't called. More on that race later.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@Trepadacio911 @irvineghost20 @MattPodgorski9 We can't get a handle on the exact amount of suburban votes yet to be counted.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@catedunlap @FrankCalabrese @EileenCookCnty @ClaytonforCook It is in the memo 2/29-3/1.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@Trepadacio911 @irvineghost20 @MattPodgorski9 Unsure.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@btpanko We pushed leaners and it was still a dead heat. With 58% undecided and leaners not breaking hard either way it doesn't make sense to include them. If it was 40-40 with 2/3 going one way it would matter more. It doesn't here. Wide open race.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

not over but Spyropoulos is clearly in a strong position.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

At this point, we don't even think you can call Burke the favorite. She leads by less than 9000 votes with over 100,000 VBMs outstanding. The first batch of late VBMs will tell the story!

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@GullyBrolic That is at the Chicago location. Cook county has a location for suburban areas. Plus, more VBM ballots will arrive.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Here is an updated polling memo. We previously misidentified the Circuit Clerk race as County Clerk:

Polling Memorandum - Cook County Primary Poll - 3.3.24v3.pdf

drive.google.com

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@Eric78915 @chicago_stan5 @Austin__Berg That is a really good catch. There likely is something to that.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

operation Preckwinkle can bring. Link to polling data:

Polling Memorandum - Cook County Primary Poll - 3.3.24.pdf

drive.google.com

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@btpanko Fair point.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

younger and more progressive. An anology - My parents who are in their 80's won't go on vacation for more than a month bc they don't trust mail forwarding. When they VBM, they do it weeks early. If my daughter wasn't reminded to vote, she wouldn't. We've polled people who VBM'ed

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@irvineghost20 @Trepadacio911 @MattPodgorski9 @irvineghost20 You are correct. Harris likely to make significant city gains and the margin in the burbs will key.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

When undecideds are pushed the lead swells to roughly 8%. But what if Nikki Haley drops out? Among Trump supporters only, the race is tied 43-43. Will Haley voters show up if she's no longer in the race?

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Well the results are (mostly) in. M3 had a fanastic night. While polling is just a snapshot in time, our accuracy is clear. The Cook County polls were done about 3 weeks out from election day. We saw the Cunningham blowout. Our Clerk poll showed the race trending towards

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

@Abc25683041 In other races we have polled returned VBM's by day. The later they come in, the more progressive they get. There are dozens of actual election results that show that VBM returns in general are more progressive than election day voters. My anology was simply an example.

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

We polled for several individual races. One that released the numbers was the Balkema campaign. We showed him with a healthy lead over a month out. It stayed that way. Our last internal polled had it nailed. If you like accurate polling results and analysis DM us!

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

in other races on a daily basis. The data is clear. Early VBM voters are much older and less progressive than late VBM voters. Plus, Harris was the party candidate. It is reasonable to believe his VBM chase program was better than Burke's. We expect Harris to make big gains

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m3strategies

@m3strat

3 months

Polling memo link:

Polling Memorandum - IL CD12 Poll - PUBLIC - 3.6.24.pdf

drive.google.com

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