Vital Knowledge Media Profile
Vital Knowledge Media

@knowledge_vital

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Adam Crisafulli Most comprehensive and insightful market commentary Podcast link:

New York, NY
Joined July 2019
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Disinflation data points: US house prices drop M/M at fastest pace in history US rents fall for the first time in nearly 2 years Lumber 70% off peak and back to pre-COVID Medicare Part B premiums to fall for 1st time in >10yrs
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Oaktree’s Howard Marks says now is the time to start buying as bargains appear – “today I’m starting to behave aggressively. Everything we deal in is significantly cheaper than it was 6-12 months ago” (FT)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
4 years
The Fed's 2pmET announcement seems unnecessary as they just repeated what the SMCCF was supposed to be doing all along, unless officials saw prices off steeply this morning and were looking to prevent a larger downdraft in markets
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
4 years
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon said 30-40% of the people going on unemployment now will be earning more money than when they were employed (he mentioned this on the co’s earnings call conf. call).
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
3 years
Steve Ballmer and Larry Ellison are on the cusp of joining the $100B club (where they would join other tech luminaries - Bezos/$211B, Musk/$180B, Gates/$150B, Zuckerberg/$130B, Page/$115B, and Brin/$111B). Arnault/$168B and Buffett/$100B are the only non-tech people in the club
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
$JBHT "we're in a challenging freight environment, where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures. Simply stated, we're in a freight recession"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
BlockFi is trying to raise funds at a massively discounted valuation of only $1B but isn’t finding much interest, raising concerns that the company could be forced into a restructuring (NY Post)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$MA "total U.S. retail sales excluding automotive increased 10.5% year-over-year in May, and 21.4% compared to pre-pandemic May 2019. This is outpacing YOY monthly growth experienced thus far in 2022"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
3 years
John Kerry on Friday said the White House was exploring the idea of placing increased tariffs on imports from countries with weaker climate policies – investors shouldn’t spend much time diving down this rabbit hole as nothing is likely to come of it.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
AMZN pausing new incremental hires. Banks looking at cuts in M&A and mortgages. Chime cutting 12%. LYFT cutting 13%. Opendoor cutting 18%. QCOM hiring freeze. Stripe cutting 14%. Twitter cutting up to 50%. This is just in the last 36 hours.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
7 months
Ark makes a new pitch to investors: we've lost so much money that you probably won't pay much in tax if we ever make money again.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$FB was bad, without a doubt. But they repurchased ~$20B of stock in Q4 (a $100B annual run-rate) and the PE is now <15x the '23 consensus based on the after-hours price. This has now become a value stock.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
A whistleblower from Russia’s FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, called Putin’s invasion a “total failure” (“by and large, though, Russia has no way out. There are no options for a possible victory, only defeat”) (London Times)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Fed tightening assumptions have actually cooled a lot in the last 48 hours – the Funds Rate cycle ceiling hit a peak of ~4.8% early Monday, but it finished Tues down at 4.54%. If this continues for a couple of more days, it will act as a powerful tailwind for equities
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$F "For the first time, the majority of consumers who intend to buy a car in the next two years say they will choose an EV or hybrid vehicle – up 11% from last year and 22% from 2020"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Kashkari says frozen lasagna prices are too high and so rates need to go up more. "There is this large tray of lasagna that I used to buy that used to cost around $16. Now it’s around $21. That’s my own little measuring stick of how inflation is going"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Why is it that every morning a substantial portion of the market tries to find a 5-alarm macro crisis in some corner of the world? Why is there such a desire to see 2008 lurking behind every corner? Markets just aren't that exciting
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Xi just did a sudden 180 on several fronts (COVID, property support, tech scrutiny, etc.) to save his economy and people really think he’s going to throw it all away to enter a conflict that can’t be won by Russia anyway?
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 month
Don't tell Tesla Hertz: "In the first quarter, the Company upsized its EV disposition plan by 10,000 vehicles, for a total of 30,000 EVs intended for sale in 2024"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$SIG from the earnings call this morning - "Weddings are back, couples are getting married at record setting rates. We expect more weddings this year than we've seen in nearly 40 years"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
The significance of Sarah Palin’s loss - "Peltola turned a state Donald Trump won by 10 points in 2020 into a three-point win — a shift of 13 points"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Auto prices: Ally Financial, one of the country's largest auto lenders, is assuming a 13% drop in used vehicle values in 2023, which would put the industry down 30% from the 2021 peak
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
6 months
$WMT This type of headline should petrify Xi: Walmart shipped 25% of all its US imports from India between Jan and Aug of '23 vs. just 2% in '18 as the firm moves its supply chain away from China (imports from China went from 80% to 60% of the total) .
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Volkswagen's CEO says there has been a "clear improvement" in semiconductor supplies and he sees production for the company improving (Reuters)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
What is Powell going to say? we think Powell will reiterate a lot of what he said back on 12/15 and thus his overall tone will be a touch more dovish than the present Fed narrative.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$TWTR Company fundamentals are deteriorating as the most active users leave the platform
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
The Celsius news is a byproduct, not a cause, of the crypto implosion. Crypto has proven itself to be nothing more than a vehicle for speculation (+ fraud and illegal activity) – the absence of real-world, tangible utility makes it extremely difficult to try and call a “bottom”
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$META Meta has dropped out of the top 10 most valuable US companies (as measured by market cap) and is now #11 , behind AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA, BRK’a, UNH, JNJ, V, and NVDA
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
It may not be a coincidence that crypto and Trump both were rejected this week as each was fueled in part by a casual nihilist impulse that seems to thankfully be in retreat
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Zelenskyy called the Russian withdrawal from Kherson “the beginning of the end of the war” (AP)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
A super hot CPI couldn't break the market back on 10/13. And bad earnings from two of the most important companies in the whole market can't break it either. The resiliency is very impressive
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
The COVID bubble has burst for a lot of stuff EXCEPT bitcoin, which is still ~$8-9K higher than before the virus. And bitcoin/crypto STILL hasn't demonstrated any practical applications beyond being simply a vehicle for speculation or criminality.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
The jobs market may not be as robust as it seems as many job postings are “fake”, with the prospective employer having no intention of immediately filling the position in question
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 month
$XOM Exxon says we will be using oil and gas for very, very, very long time to come “I know there’s a view that we’re in a declining industry. That view is wrong. People don't fully appreciate the scale of the global energy system. It took many tens of trillions of dollars to
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
it’s likely Powell’s testimony this week represented peak hawkishness for the cycle as economic data moves toward the Fed’s desired goals while the SIVB fallout accelerates the end of the rate hike process
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Bernanke warns the nation could be headed for a period of stagflation – “there should be a period in the next year or two where growth is low, unemployment is at least up a little bit and inflation is still high. So you could call that stagflation” (NYT)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Disinflationary pressures are intensifying dramatically in the US (read this morning's flash PMI details). The Fed will be as wrong next year w/their FF forecasts as they were in 2022.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
The market has just about priced out rate cuts this year. YE FF now 4.85%, up ~55bp in less than a week. And yet the SPX has barely budged in that time, reflecting remarkable resiliency
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$JPM JPMorgan doesn't sound worried about the consumer. "The near-term credit outlook, esp. for the US consumer, remains strong....the unusually low level of card charge-offs will persist into next year"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 month
$BX From the Blackstone earnings call - "“In terms of inflation, despite the recent U.S. CPI readings, we're seeing decelerating wage growth and minimal input cost increases across many of our companies. In real estate, we see shelter costs moderating, contrary to government
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
US shale oil firms will generate ~$180B in free cash flow this year, more than the last 20 years COMBINED, as they benefit from surging oil prices and minimal capex (FT)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
$TSLA Nearly 7% of all options traded on a given day are for Tesla. "Many of the biggest options bets on Tesla are lottery-ticket trades requiring statistically improbable moves to pay out"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$GM lands a giant EV order. Hertz plans to order up to 175K Chevrolet, Buick, GMC, Cadillac and BrightDrop EVs over the next five years
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
3 years
Bernie is chair of Budget Committee and Warren just joined the Finance Committee. Investors should be prepared for tax hike headlines
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
11 months
Prigozhin planned to kidnap Russia's senior military leadership and anticipated a large chunk of the army taking his side, but he was forced to act sooner than hoped after the plot leaked
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
6 months
$AMZN Amazon officially surpasses UPS and FedEx as the biggest delivery business in the US, and the gap will only grow larger in the years ahead
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
3 years
$TSLA GAAP op. income number of $594MM wasn’t much larger than the $518MM earned in regulatory credits (and it looks like they had a $101MM positive income to op. income from the sale of bitcoin). So ex bitcoin + credits, op. income would be negative
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 month
Trump’s national lead over Biden head-to-head cut to two points in a new NBC poll, down from 5 points in Jan, and Biden actually pulls ahead by 2 points if Kennedy is included (as RFK Jr captures more from Trump than Biden)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
9 months
Apartment rents are on the verge of declining due to massive new supply
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Your steak is getting cheaper at the supermarket as demand softens for higher-end cuts and staffing improves at processing plants via @WSJ
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Russia/Ukraine - we think US stocks will rally on the Donbas recognition news
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
$TSLA Consumer Reports ranks active driver assistance systems (ADAS). Ford was #1 followed by GM at #2 . TSLA's Autopilot was #2 in 2020 but sank to #7 in the latest review.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
If Fri BLS is anything like ISM and JOLTs, the Fed will do 50bp on 11/2 and the next dot plot (out on 12/14) will prob have a Fed Funds ceiling of 4.4% or lower for 2023. Fed hawkishness is past its peak
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
flu vaccine efficacy, which is 40-60% depending on the year, should be considered the template for COVID vax; in fact, it’s likely that eventually a new COVID vax is launched annually that predicts the year’s dominant variant and people are encouraged to get one every 12 months
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
MSFT at ~6:10pmET Tues night said Azure should see a reacceleration of growth and that single remark is catalyzing a huge rally in stocks. If you think that’s a ridiculous statement, you’re correct, but it’s emblematic of the type of market we’re in right now (a ridiculous one)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
White House to allow Eurozone allies to send F16 fighter jets to Ukraine
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
If bitcoin was anything other than a useless representation of financial hype and speculative mania it would stop gyrating like a profitless cloud software IPO.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$KR Kroger says customers are "aggressively" buying private label products (which is similar to what Walmart and Target said). This means that branded staples companies prob. have run out of room to hike prices
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 month
Walmart's CEO says the company continues to see disinflation/deflation. "At Walmart, we are now seeing prices that are in line with where they were 12 months ago. I haven’t been able to say that for a few years now. The last few weeks, we've taken even more prices down in areas
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
9 months
In a sign of the enormous risk facing many white collar jobs from AI, Larry Ellison revealed on the Oracle call that the firm is using a generative AI code writer to rewrite the entire Cerner code base ("it's not armies of programmers that are going be rewriting this")
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
“John McCain once called Russia ‘a gas station with nuclear weapons.’ As sanctions start to impact its ability to produce oil and gas, it isn’t even clear if Russia will be a gas station for long"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
7 months
Earnings have been bad all season, but results since the Tues close are especially poor. There seems to be a notable deterioration happening in macro conditions. It's only a matter of time before the official eco data reflects this. Treasury yields should be a lot lower.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE fell to 3.1% in Mar vs. +4% in Feb and +6.3% in Jan. This is the lowest since Aug 2021. Inflation has peaked. This is the most hawkish Fed forecasts will get.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
In Petraeus’s estimation, however determined Vladimir Putin may be to invade Ukraine, he lacks the troops and the popular support needed to succeed in taking over the country for any significant period of time.
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
It is still incredibly impressive that stocks aren’t down even more given what yields have done – this is the most bullish thing about the market (if the enormous repricing in yields over the last month failed to crush stocks, what happens if/when data cools and Tsys rally?)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Powell said he wanted a housing correction - he's getting his wish. “Six months ago, people were buying homes over-ask and with no appraisal. They didn’t even bat an eyelash. Now, it’s like crickets"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$COIN said it won’t allow customers from a sanctioned country, or any sanctioned individuals, to open accounts (the company said it blocked 25K addresses linked to Russian individuals or entities believed to be engaged in illicit activity) (Coinbase)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
The silver lining in today's afternoon fade is the fact that it's the safe-haven sectors (healthcare, staples, defense contractors, insurance, etc.) that are getting hit hardest, suggesting investors are gearing up to shift into "riskier" sectors
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
12 days
"Trump’s legal team has made several considerable, and at times baffling, missteps over the course of the trial that have increased the odds of a conviction"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$XOM Exxon says refining margins have moderated a bit in July and they talk about the industry adding 1M BPD of refining capacity in 2022 (including 250K from XOM in Q1:23) which “should help meet recovering demand”
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
3 years
$VIAC South Park creators being paid $900MM over 6 years in a new contract, one of the richest in TV history (Bloomberg)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
European natural gas prices plunge the most since April after Germany said its gas stores are filling up faster than planned ahead of winter via @markets
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
3 major firms in the last 24 hours have all talked about improved supply chain conditions - Lenovo (for PCs), Sony (for PS5), and Volkswagen
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
$TOL “Existing homeowners are reluctant to give up their low-rate mortgages, causing v tight resale supplies. As a result, 35% of homes for sale are new construction, compared to the historical norm of between 10%-15%. This phenomenon has become a boon for homebuilders”
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
$TOL "We are beginning to see some building costs come down beyond just lumber, which continues to steadily drop. The opportunity to build faster and at a lower cost may be here"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
$MU "The memory and storage industry environment has deteriorated sharply since our last earnings call"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
I guess bears will have to start complaining about how "earnings are too strong, the Fed will need to do more!"
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Most important part of the Fed Beige Book - "Many retailers noted increased difficulty in passing through cost increases, suggesting greater price sensitivity on the part of consumers". This is a macro positive, but also raises margin risks for individual companies
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
1 year
Republican support for Donald Trump's presidential bid in 2024 has cratered via @usatoday
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Apartment rents are starting to cool, climbing 9.4% Y/Y in Q2, down from 11%+ in the prior two quarters (and Q2 is supposed to be a seasonally strong period, which makes the slowdown “a really ominous sign”) (WSJ)
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Markets aren't scared of the news any longer but instead are scared of markets. When price action becomes the news it's usually the sign of a trough. 4200 is likely to stay an approximate floor
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
24 days
The most interesting data point we saw on Thurs: ALL (Allstate) said that two years of aggressive price hikes (’22 and ’23) means that the portion of auto premiums earning adequate returns currently stands at 64%, up from 34% in ’23 and just 8% in ’22. The implication of this is
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@knowledge_vital
Vital Knowledge Media
2 years
Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE fell to 3.4% in July, down from 6.9% in June and 5.5% in May
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