#Bitcoin
options just surpassed peak open interest from 2021 👀
enforcing our thesis that watching options flows and positioning is increasingly important
post expiry updates:
-Friday saw $2.75b ntl of $BTC options expire on deribit. OI remains at 2021 levels at $12.5b, most OI lies in Dec23 calls followed by Nov23 calls.
-strikes: latest below h/t
@Amberdataio
. last week saw calls rolled out (h/t
@tradeparadigm
) and thus top
this has played out. some notes:
-short gamma is still in effect up to 40k, but remember it works both ways and can reinforce selling on the way down if spot takes a breather
-vol and call skew have been in demand (charts) so call spreads still make sense if adding exposure
it’s happening again
bullish options positions building around a strike, in november it was 40k, now its 50k
apr-june 50-75k calls have been printing, 2k
#btc
traded in past 2hrs
options markets on number go up mode
@CoinSharesCo
@galaxyhq
@TheBlock__
@Oppenheimer
@CashApp
15/ if we look at options, the market is bullish
x-axis is strike prices in increasing order, orange bars are call volume (bet that BTC go up), blue bars are put volume (bet that BTC go down)
orange > blue, more money is betting BTC up v BTC down
#btc
gamma exposure has tripled 👀almost $60m to buy on 1% moves higher (and sell on moves lower) at peak gamma (we’re not quite there, but its in sight), up from $20m earlier in this thread
38k is the new 30k, can she do it?
#btc
on gas through 37k and flows in futures and options are definitively constructive:
- CME Futures OI passed 100k BTC for the first time ever. Nov Basis is trading at roughly 20%
- Implied vols are up across the curve with calls in demand, reflected in higher skew with BTC
when i left jpm they sent me my stock on a paper certificate (lol) which i took to a branch. they told me to mail it back to the very office that sent it to me. i mailed it, and weeks later they returned it because a signature was misplaced. so now i self custody my bank equity…
if you're 12-30 years old and your main circle isn't discussing
-eth staking unlocks
-EIP4844
-eigenlayer
-if your monetary system should be deflationary
-artblocks
-the milady world order
then it's time to find a new circle
#btc
options leading the market again 🥹
calls rolling up from 50k to 60k w spot ripping thru low 50s (1)
gamma: $17m to buy on 1% moves higher here. we ripped thru peak level at 50k which saw $25m to buy on 1% moves (2)
etf inflows + options positioning = the spice must flow
it’s happening again
bullish options positions building around a strike, in november it was 40k, now its 50k
apr-june 50-75k calls have been printing, 2k
#btc
traded in past 2hrs
options markets on number go up mode
#btc
on gas through 37k and flows in futures and options are definitively constructive:
- CME Futures OI passed 100k BTC for the first time ever. Nov Basis is trading at roughly 20%
- Implied vols are up across the curve with calls in demand, reflected in higher skew with BTC
post expiry updates:
-Friday saw $2.75b ntl of $BTC options expire on deribit. OI remains at 2021 levels at $12.5b, most OI lies in Dec23 calls followed by Nov23 calls.
-strikes: latest below h/t
@Amberdataio
. last week saw calls rolled out (h/t
@tradeparadigm
) and thus top
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"I don’t want to do what the bread guys and the gas guys and everybody else are doing," Don Vultaggio, the 70-year-old, 6-foot-8 founder and chairman of AriZona said. "Consumers don’t need another price increase from a guy like me."
#bitcoin
futures OI is nearing ATH 👀but here’s why it’s NOT a top signal..
instead it tells a story of a growing asset class:
-CME dominance = sophisticated hedging, not degen longs (they post CASH margin & have an FCM acct)
-increasingly used by ETF APs to hedge
-rip FTX
the options say we havent topped
4200
#btc
of calls w strikes 64-80k went thru the market past 24 hours, atm vol and call skew up across all maturities (adding long exposure)
#btc
options leading the market again 🥹
calls rolling up from 50k to 60k w spot ripping thru low 50s (1)
gamma: $17m to buy on 1% moves higher here. we ripped thru peak level at 50k which saw $25m to buy on 1% moves (2)
etf inflows + options positioning = the spice must flow
SERIES B UPDATE: The diligence process is exhausting, so I’m outsourcing:
@BoysClubWorld
will run an Onchain Bachelor contest via
@jokerace_xyz
. We will use the takeaways to improve the dating process through a new project: - sign up on the landing page.
first date idea. we meet for drinks on friday night. you go to the bathroom, i check my phone and see a stablecoin is depegging. you return, and i tell you i have to go home.
we made it to negative gamma territory which no doubt helped fuel the run to 30k. latest below shows
#btc
for desks to buy on a 1% spot move higher (and sell on a move lower). things get even spicier as we approach 32k 👀
vol and call skew are higher so look at callspreads if
dynamics in this thread cont to play out this week
-btc calls cont to be in demand
-eth calls cont to be supplied
illustrated by BTC ATM IV 8V > ETH (up from flat in late September)
yesterdays btc rush gave us a small taste of how short gamma will unfold at 30k (top OI, chart
musings into the biggest
#btc
options expiry to date next friday
-175k btc of options expire on deribit on 12/29, which account for half of existing open interest. 60% are calls / 40% puts
-can backout from difference in Dec/Jan gamma positioning that most of these Dec are
#btc
gamma exposure has tripled 👀almost $60m to buy on 1% moves higher (and sell on moves lower) at peak gamma (we’re not quite there, but its in sight), up from $20m earlier in this thread
38k is the new 30k, can she do it?
can you feel the eth gamma anon?
approx 10k eth mar 2.8k and 3k calls just printed
since 10/2 when short calls ruled the eth markets, market has bot eth options leaving us in short gamma. $10m spot to buy/sell on up/down moves here
pronounced market structure divergence in btc and eth options
dealers heavily short btc gamma vs long eth
this will cause pronounced price moves in btc and suppression in eth particularly as we move higher in btc spot
the asia bid, is it back?
2023: asia was the smallest contributor to
#btc
gains (1) - posting 1/3 of the US
its started to outpace europe past 3 months (2) & last night gave us a glimpse a bullish asia with a 3% rip
-> asia is turning back to btc as Xi is telling you the
JPM wrote a report stating
#btc
could go to 42k post halving bc the halving will negatively impact miner profitability
⁃ Will some miners be forced to sell more of their stack? Yes, but a small subset
⁃ Is JPM fudding a historically positive price event for BTC? also Yes
pronounced market structure divergence in btc and eth options
dealers heavily short btc gamma vs long eth
this will cause pronounced price moves in btc and suppression in eth particularly as we move higher in btc spot
first date idea. we meet for drinks on friday night. you go to the bathroom, i check my phone and see a stablecoin is depegging. you return, and i tell you i have to go home.
salut to the 44k call buyer
1400
#btc
of 44k-47k calls traded past 24h, around 1/3 were 44ks (1)
we’re still 160k btc worth of options open interest lower post Dec expiry (2), a lot of which were in the money calls, prob expect to see more call buying activity this week
more on btc gamma after qs on if gamma hedging is significant
past month, $800m ntl of btc calls (oct-dec) were bought thru
@tradeparadigm
this shows in OI by strike and maturity
can estimate dealers will buy approx $100m btc in a move thru 30k and $400m thru 35k
pronounced market structure divergence in btc and eth options
dealers heavily short btc gamma vs long eth
this will cause pronounced price moves in btc and suppression in eth particularly as we move higher in btc spot
@TheStalwart
Fiat industry needs to consolidate. To start, I propose a merger of Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole, Blackrock and Blackstone, the Royal Bank of Canada and the Royal Bank of Scotland
“chinese locals historically invested in real estate instead of stocks but the real estate market is imploding so now they might buy crypto coins and their BTC ETF process is heating up while Xi tries to stimulate their risk assets”
the asia bid, is it back?
2023: asia was the smallest contributor to
#btc
gains (1) - posting 1/3 of the US
its started to outpace europe past 3 months (2) & last night gave us a glimpse a bullish asia with a 3% rip
-> asia is turning back to btc as Xi is telling you the
this has played out. some notes:
-short gamma is still in effect up to 40k, but remember it works both ways and can reinforce selling on the way down if spot takes a breather
-vol and call skew have been in demand (charts) so call spreads still make sense if adding exposure
we made it to negative gamma territory which no doubt helped fuel the run to 30k. latest below shows
#btc
for desks to buy on a 1% spot move higher (and sell on a move lower). things get even spicier as we approach 32k 👀
vol and call skew are higher so look at callspreads if
it’s happening again
bullish options positions building around a strike, in november it was 40k, now its 50k
apr-june 50-75k calls have been printing, 2k
#btc
traded in past 2hrs
options markets on number go up mode
Prayers by
@pointline_
, 2022
loved this display. seeing Iskra IRL hit different after engaging with her work on
@fx_hash_
- the discourse between collectors and artists is unmatched there, creating a totally new sense of intimacy between artists and collectors. thank you
@ciphrd
last week options ATH, this week: asset manager net positioning in
#Bitcoin
cme futures closing in on ATH 👀
good tweet from
@EricBalchunas
this weekend on BITO trading strong volumes last week.
Notable: $BITO traded $1.7b last week, 2nd biggest week since its wild WEEK ONE. $GBTC did $800m. That's $2.5b (top 1% among ETFs) into two less desirable methods (vs spot) for exposure = while we think spot ETFs unlikely to set records on DAY ONE, clearly there's an audience
overwritoor is now short over 200k
#eth
calls/spreads/calendars, close to max size from last year. eth vols -20v in past 10 days, could be the bottom here
i have a crush
on a country made of volcanos and glaciers
where mosquitos don’t exist and tap water isn’t chlorinated
the president is 55 years old
chocolate mousse is ubiquitous on menus
energy is 100% renewable and the genpop worship mythical elves
love you iceland
friendly reminder 👀👀 equities settle t+1 so bitcoin transfers from/to issuers are likely for previous business day share activity and spot transactions
while we’re talking points of failure seems like a good time to remind that a majority of nfts rely on a centralized server to store data.
@RtClick_Save
great thread from alex on why we arent topping. in addition to these indicators pls look no further than the dog indicator. we are not at the top until the dogs run.
Why We Aren't (S)Topping
(for my first ever long X post, I'm releasing a note I sent early this this morning to Galaxy counterparties and clients)
The sun hasn’t yet risen in NYC, but I know it will. From Galaxy HQ north of Battery Park, the Hudson River looks like a sea of
a bunch of 38k puts traded today
1445
#btc
units Dec 29 expiry
year end is for locking in gains - 1 week skew (25d) flipped to puts being more $$ than calls last week for first time since Oct (excluding a quick stint in Nov)
love this stat (on
#Bitcoin
): despite a 23% YoY rise in network hashrate, energy usage is down 25% YoY due to an efficiency increase of 63%
@glxyresearch
an X account where bank employees submit tales of the inefficiencies from the inside and account reposts would go hard. my submissions:
-million to billion dollar otc derivative trades booked manually in a software system that said bear stearns on it 9+ years post banking crisis
#eth
deribit OI+10% since Friday after call buying flows:
-10.6k Nov 2k-2.3k call spreads bot
-2.25k Nov 2k calls bot
-2.25k Dec 2.3k calls bot
long gamma is decreasing w this. current (left) vs 10/30 (right) - as this flattens spot is less suppressed by dealer hedging
pronounced market structure divergence in btc and eth options
dealers heavily short btc gamma vs long eth
this will cause pronounced price moves in btc and suppression in eth particularly as we move higher in btc spot
overwritoor is now short over 200k
#eth
calls/spreads/calendars, close to max size from last year. eth vols -20v in past 10 days, could be the bottom here
eth overwriter is back baby
sold 25k Mar 2900 v 19Jan 2550
sold 10k 9Feb 2700
recall position was up to 200k+ in short calls in 2023 which suppressed eth volatility and price vs btc. if px doesnt rip expect this to continue building - could pressure eth/btc
absolute pleasure talking
#btc
market structure ln 🌽
@Melt_Dem
dropping our slides, memes, and prep notes - lots of bullish datapoints across etf expectations, retail & institooootion activity, options data etc
ty to the best hosts
@_drewarmstrong_
@tpacchia
@PubKey_NYC
💗
1/ quick notes and data points from the discussion
@kellyjgreer
and i had at
@PubKey_NYC
last night
'tis the season of the most hated rally - bitcoin is ripping and macro folks are not happy about it
jamie dimon and elizabeth warren seem especially mad 😠 max cope incoming