2/ bitcoin pricing is driven by FLOWS it's tempting to get lost in piles of analysis but as we'll discuss later on, the key to understanding is looking at open positions, trade volume, inflows and outflows sentiment doesn't matter until it's expressed as a trade

3/ bitcoin is highly reflexive i had a moment of enlightenment a few years back. i used to believe narrative -> sentiment -> flows -> price but it's really much simpler price drives action this is what @saylor $MSTR has perfected. buy, price goes up, follow with narrative

4/ quick sidebar - liquidity understanding the structure and depth of markets matters. the unique properties of bitcoin and how tsxn's trade, clear, margin, settle etc has created an entire ecosystem of new venues that weren't always so liquid.

5/ the evolution of bitcoin market structure has been a *hell* of a ride littered with blowups, blowouts, glowups, and just straight up fraud we're currently in our institutooootional era, with many traditional market participants and venues joining the fun

6/ now to the flows bitcoin markets have an abundance of useful data on flows because everything is on-chain as of today, 80% of the bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year. that's a big number. top is in when LT holders to start selling 👀 (blue line down, red line up)

7/ i'm also a big fan of tracking crypto product flows, since it represents retail and insto buyers of the type who would buy the ETF. we're on week 10 of consecutive inflows into crypto products, and the majority of demand is still for bitcoin

@CoinSharesCo 8/ so who's gonna be buying corn in 2024? where will these flows come from? 👇 these institutions and their clients, baby distribution is the name of the game, and these firms have massive distro channels they'll use to promote and sell their bitcoin products and services

@CoinSharesCo 9/ retirement assets are the holy grail - $35T pie and growing not many efficient ways to put bitcoin in a retirement portfolio. publicly listed co's offer (levered) bitcoin beta and products like GBTC have structural challenges re: maintaining NAV but soon... spot ETF

@CoinSharesCo 10/ quick rip from Kelly and the @galaxyhq team on ETF demand / flows estimates Total BTC in current ETP/Fs: $33B (4% of BTC supply) Boomers & earlier (aged 59+) hold 62% of US wealth, yet only 8% of adults age 50+ have invested in crypto vs. 25%+ for adults aged 18-49 (Fed,…

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq 11/ markets - let's start w spot BTC daily volume = $10B BTC is ~1/3 of the $30B total daily volume - peak was $150B / day in 2021 bull, bottom in at $10B / day of this flow, ~50% on Binance most gains during US market hours (Saylor daddy) - flat during Europe + Asia hours

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq @TheBlock__ 12/ retails tends to trade spot retail traders net bought $6.8B in *equities* this past week, the largest retail inflow in 20+ months ( @Oppenheimer ) WE ARE SO BACK @CashApp gross btc transaction activity was $2.4B in 3Q 23 -> this translates to $27M / day on avg. remember…

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq @TheBlock__ @Oppenheimer @CashApp 13/ derivatives we just hit a record ATH for open interest (OI) which an important liquidity measure - OI reflects the number of contracts held by traders in active positions $20B OI on crypto native platforms + $5B OI on CME - $25B baby

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq @TheBlock__ @Oppenheimer @CashApp 14/ the real flippening is we're watching is CME bitcoin futures OI surpassing Binance for the first time ever this week remember, to trade on CME you have to be an institutioooon, do KYC, post cash, etc etc. the big bois are coming out to play.

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq @TheBlock__ @Oppenheimer @CashApp 15/ if we look at options, the market is bullish x-axis is strike prices in increasing order, orange bars are call volume (bet that BTC go up), blue bars are put volume (bet that BTC go down) orange > blue, more money is betting BTC up v BTC down

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq @TheBlock__ @Oppenheimer @CashApp 16/ bitcoin's number go up tech is impressive, but the future is so much bigger IMHO the portfolio of the future is ENERGY, COMPUTE, CRYPTO (nfa, dyor, etc) bitcoin is all 3 and enables beautiful, beautiful financial engineering but is tethered to the laws of thermodynamics

@CoinSharesCo @galaxyhq @TheBlock__ @Oppenheimer @CashApp 17/ that's all the girl math we had time for hopefully you enjoyed this edition of wammin' doing bitcoin things please tip generously when you visit the great folks at @PubKey_NYC and feel free to buy me and Kelly some beers (tecate for her, high life for me)

@Melt_Dem @kellyjgreer @PubKey_NYC "Efficient redistribution of income via a UBI requires strict, warrantless tax surveillance, banning all self-custody of digital assets and a free public sector-operated CBDC system to bank the unbanked and free bank users from regressive fees and predatory lending by private…

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@Melt_Dem @kellyjgreer @PubKey_NYC Insane post, congrats

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