UK currently has 9 TWh of gas stored, compared with 217 TWh in Germany, 122 TWh in France & 162 TWh in Italy.
"The UK government dismantled its largest gas storage facility in 2017, a decision taken by then chief secretary to the treasury – Liz Truss."
1.5 years ago Germany imported more than 60% of the gas it consumed from Russia.
Since late August 2022 it is 0%.
The scale of this change is incredible and would have been thought of as impossible in the past.
So many negative media stories about electric vehicles written by people who never owned an electric vehicle.
We drove for our family holidays in an EV from the UK via France and Belgium to the German Alps and back.
Total trip: >1,800 miles. No problem.
Why laws of thermodynamics don’t apply to Britain is beyond me.
Another poor piece on heat pumps by the Telegraph.
It’s full of lines from vested interest groups who say heat pumps don’t work in Britain because they want to keep their fossil fuel-based business model alive.
BREAKING: Largest German heating system installer
@Thermondo
stops installing gas boilers.
The last fossil fuel heating system has been sold in February 2024.
The company will instead focus on heat pumps, solar and other clean energy technologies.
Heat pumps are magical machines.
Instead of combusting fossil fuels to generate heat they transport heat from the air, ground or water into your home.
This reduces carbon emissions instantly by about 80% with the current electricity mix. It will be 100% by mid 2030s.
“We bought this really expensive car.” “Oh great, very nice car!”
“We got a new luxury kitchen.” “I like your marble worktop.”
“We got our home insulated.” “What’s the payback on that?”
NEW RESEARCH: Heat pumps are 2-3x more efficient than oil and gas based fossil heating systems in cold and sub zero temperatures.
Even in temperatures approaching -30°C they perform significantly better than their fossil-fuel based competitors.
All the detail here👇
New paper shows heat pumps suitable for all European countries - even cold ones!
Research out today in
@Joule_CP
by myself,
@janrosenow
and
@heatpolicyrich
at
@RegAssistProj
with Neil Hewitt.
We collected real-world data across 3 continents. 🧵
Anti-electricity cartoon from 1889.
No matter how good an idea comes along, there will always be somebody opposed.
Today it is renewable energy, electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Good news is that innovation often proves the tech doubters wrong.
Renewables are unstoppable now.
More than 80% of new global capacity additions in 2021 were from solar (50%) wind (25%) & hydro (7%) compared to only 15% fossil generation provided by gas (11%) & coal (4%).
Great visuals and data by BloombergNEF
This is huge: Yesterday the German government confirmed plans to no longer allow stand-alone fossil fuel heating systems to be installed from 01 January 2024.
That’s in all buildings and will come into force in just 8 months.
Hydrogen for heating is a distraction: inefficient, costly & resource-intensive. This is what ALL independent studies conclude.
My new peer-reviewed
@Joule_CP
paper reviews 32 independent studies. Not one suggests major role of hydrogen for heating.
🧵
What happens in Germany right now with heat pumps is truly remarkable.
📈Heat pump sales are up by 122% in the last quarter compared to a year ago which was a record year for heat pump sales.
Thanks
@BWPev
for sharing an English version of the latest sales data with me.
Opposition against new technology is not new.
Humans once opposed coffee, recorded music & refrigeration. Today it’s renewables, heat pumps & EVs.
Once technologies are adopted widely people forget that there was ever opposition to them.
A heat pump doesn’t generate heat.
It just moves pre-existing heat around using basic physics.
That’s what makes it so efficient beating any combustion system.
When horses were replaced by cars there was a lot of resistance & scaremongering by the incumbent horse industry. Here's an old anti car advert by a horse carriage company.
History now repeats itself with countless scare stories about renewables, heat pumps & electric vehicles.
NEW ANALYSIS: Heat pumps have seen huge growth in Nordic countries.
Heat pumps sold over 30 years contributed to a -72% drop in CO2 emissions from heating in Finland, -83% in Norway & -95% in Sweden.
How has this been achieved? My piece
@CarbonBrief
Solar and wind have seen huge drops in cost over the last decade according to
@IPCC_CH
.
Solar ⬇️ 85%
Wind ⬇️ 55%
But skeptics often state that using levelised cost of energy (LCOE) as a metric is meaningless because it ignores cost of integrating solar and wind.
A response. 🧵
Electrification works.
Norway now has the highest penetration of heat pumps in the world with almost 2/3 of homes having one.
Since 1990 emissions from home heating fell by more than 80%.
Can anyone explain to me why for many commentators it is
a) unacceptable to install a heat pump or solar in a building that is not super well insulated but
b) perfectly acceptable to heat the same building with a fossil heating system resulting in higher carbon emissions?
Question for all the clever commentators on this platform who tell me heat pumps cannot work because of thermodynamics:
Do you have one of these in your house?
Die Bild-Zeitung berichtet, Wärmepumpen seien nicht klimafreundlicher als eine Gasheizung.
Das ist jedoch vollkommener Unsinn. Wärmepumpen sparen zwischen 57% und 68% an Treibhausgasen ein auf 20 Jahre gerechnet.
Hier erkläre ich warum. 🧵
A very basic point but still not widely known:
Electrification is energy efficiency.
If we electrified the economy to the full potential this would reduce final energy demand by 40%.
Data from Prof Nick Eyre
@ecioxford
@CREDS_UK
@oxfordgeography
Two things we keep getting consistently wrong:
1⃣ Vastly overestimating future coal demand
2⃣ Massively underestimating future generation of solar PV
Love these graphics from
@rethink_x
The
@IEA
World Energy Outlook 2022 is out.
A major focus of the report is on how to meet the climate goals.
Great visualisation of the pathway to net zero.
Full report available for free here:
Electric trucks are coming to market fast. But few people know that the technology has existed for more than 100 years.
Here are electric trucks charging at London St Pancras Station.
Renewables are unstoppable now whether you like it or not.
74% of all newly installed capacity was wind and solar in 2022. Less than 15% was fossil.
@BloombergNEF
Graph shared by
@MLiebreich
in his keynote in Brussels at our event last month.
Energy transition critics often point to primary energy use to demonstrate that it's going to be impossible.
But 72% of the global energy input is currently lost after conversion.
The problem we're trying to solve here is a lot smaller than primary energy use might suggest.🧵
BOOM❗️Another record broken - 3m heat pumps installed in Europe in 2022. Market grew +38% from 2021.
🇫🇷France sells largest number of heat pumps
🇵🇱Poland shows highest market growth with market more than doubling
🇫🇮Finland leads in units sold per household
@helloheatpumps
A new Swedish company called Aira will start selling heat pumps in the UK, Germany and Italy this year for a monthly fee of around 80 Euro instead of paying an upfront installation costs.
I think it is a good idea. My comments in
@newscientist
@mjflepage
We keep under-estimating how fast renewable energy grows.
And we keep over-estimating how much fossil fuel is being used in the future.
Thanks
@rethink_x
for these graphs!
BREAKING: Polish heat pump market grows by 120% ❗️in 2022.
This is quite possibly the world record for heat pump market growth experienced in a country in a single year.
Electricity is only the tip of the iceberg.
Heat accounts for approximately 50% of energy use and about 40% of global CO2 emissions according to
@IEA
.
To meet the climate goals we must decarbonise heat.
The end of an era:
10 years ago coal generated almost 40% of the UK‘s electricity.
In less than 6 months the last remaining coal power plant will be shut down.
The primary energy fallacy: Critics of the energy transition often point to primary energy to demonstrate that the transition is going to be impossible.
But most consumed primary energy is lost after conversion.
The problem to solve is a lot smaller than primary energy
MEGA FACTCHECK
Heat pumps are the “central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating” says
@IEA
.
But heat pumps still face relentless hostile media coverage.
I comprehensively debunked 18 heat pump myths in
@CarbonBrief
👇
I see people saying on Twitter that solar & wind are a bad idea because of their environmental impacts.
"Compared to what?" we often ask
@RegAssistProj
Recent meta-review led by
@BenjaminSovaco1
shows fossil electricity has much bigger environmental impacts than renewables. 🧵
The electricity system is undergoing a profound transformation.
What we are seeing is a much more consumer-centric model emerging with much more diversity in terms of generation and consumption.
A short 🧵
The number of people on this platform who never owned a heat pump or an EV telling people who had them for years that the technology is crap and doesn't work...
Wow.
@FT
reports that
@ToyotaMotorCorp
plans to make a solid-state battery with a range of 1,200km (745 miles) that could charge in 10 minutes or less.
Release is planned for 2027.
Heat pumps are 🔥 right now.
In 2021 the global heat pump market grew by an impressive 13% - the highest growth rate ever recorded.
Even more impressive are the regional growth figures:
🇪🇺 Europe: 35%
🇺🇸 US: 15%
🇨🇳 China: 13%
🧵
BREAKING: EU plan for cutting Russian gas imports
⬇️ by 2/3 this year
⬇️ by more than 2x of current Russian gas demand in 2030
Notice how in the short term renewables, energy efficiency, heat pumps will provide 37%.
By 2030 it is >2/3 of all gas savings.
Another poor piece on heat pumps in the
@Telegraph
this time by
@RossjournoClark
using the
@BritishGas
heat pump performance guarantee as a hook to spread misinformation.
The article is riddled with errors and myths. Let me take them on one by one.
🧵
HOT OFF THE PRESS: New independent system cost study from
@ETH_en
on decarbonising heating is out.
Result: Green hydrogen for heating is more 2-3x more expensive, less efficient and has more environmental impacts than electrification.
As someone who regularly travels to continental Europe I'm amazed by the resistance to pedestrianise city centres in the UK.
Take Brussels: The Grand Place was pedestrianised on 21 March 1991. Unimaginable it would ever go back to being a car park.
🧵
Es gibt in Deutschland eine Diskussion, ob mit Wasserstoff geheizt werden sollte.
Mittlerweile gibt es 45 unabhängige Studien, welche davon abraten.
Heute wurde die letzte von der IEA veröffentlicht. Menge an H2 in Gebäuden in 2050:
Null
45 independent studies now conclude: there is no major role of hydrogen for heating our homes.
The latest study was published today by
@IEA
. It says by 2050 hydrogen demand in the buildings sector will be:
Zero
🧵
Heat pumps reduce gas even if they use electricity from 100% gas.
But
@RossjournoClark
claims "If you burn gas to generate power, then transmit that power to home with heat pump, you start with a lot less energy than you do if you use the gas in a gas boiler".
🧵 why he's wrong
When
@OctopusEnergy
@g__j
announced in 2021 that they would offer a heat pump for £2,000 after the government grant making them as cheap as gas boiler for people they were laughed at.
Fast forward to November 2022 & they have delivered on their promise.
Uruguay has almost phased out fossil fuels in electricity production.
Depending on the weather, anything between 90% and 95% of its power has come from renewables (mostly wind and hydro) in recent months.
Incumbent German electricity suppliers said in 1993 that renewables could not provide more than 4% of electricity in the long run.
Based on data up to 19 May 2023 renewables will hit 50% of electricity generation this year.
HT
@solarpapst
Electrification is energy efficiency.
If we electrified industry, buildings and transport to the full potential this would reduce final energy demand by 40%.
Data from Prof Nick Eyre
@ecioxford
@CREDS_UK
@oxfordgeography
🧵
For all the folks who read Vaclav Smil and claim that we're doomed because energy transitions take hundreds of years.
Here's the share of coal of UK electricity generation. It went from 39% in 2012 to 1% in 2023.
“Can you install a heat pump for us?”a friend of mine asked his plumber.
Response: “No they’re crap and don’t work.”
That’s representative of many conversations people have with installers.
There is no future for fossil fuel heating. Be part of the solution, not the problem.
Our current energy system is incredibly wasteful. About 2/3 of primary energy is lost in conversion processes.
The good news is that the potential for energy savings is huge too through improved energy efficiency and electrification.
Below is the example of the US.
Happy Friday to all the reply guys saying how renewables are a terrible idea.
I hate to break it to you but >80% of new generation capacity built is now renewable energy, mainly solar and wind.
See the trend? Coal (black) and fossil gas (grey) getting squeezed more and more.
“All those batteries from electric vehicles will just end up in landfill.”
We heard this many times on Twitter.
In reality the battery materials are far too valuable.
@Glencore
just announced plans for Europe’s biggest EV battery recycling plant.
Lots of scaremongering around electric vehicles right now.
Remember: the technology has existed for more than 100 years.
Here are electric trucks charging at London St Pancras Station.
Europe can get off Russian gas by 2025 with massively speeding up deployment of:
🌞 Renewable energy
🏠 Energy efficiency
⚡️ Electrification.
🧵
New analysis by
@RegAssistProj
@EmberClimate
@E3G
@Bellona_EU
A reminder from
@MLiebreich
that despite what the hydrogen sales brochures say >99% of global hydrogen production is based on unabated fossil fuels and highly carbon intensive.
Matt Ridley claims that “batteries only last about 60,000 miles.”
That’s completely wrong. “Real-world data showed that Tesla battery degradation was less than 10% after over 160,000 miles.”
The break even number is wrong too.
Heat pumps work when it’s cold. They just work harder.
Heat pumps remain more than twice as efficient as gas boilers, even at temperatures well below freezing.
More in my
@CarbonBrief
heat pump myth buster:
40GW of solar panels, same amount installed across Europe in 2022, are gathering dust in European warehouses, likely to grow to 100GW by end of 2023.
If those panels were deployed, they would displace 7 bcm of fossil gas, according to
@Beyond_Fossils
.
@RheinEnergie
wants to build Germany‘s biggest heat pump.
A whopping 150 Megawatt unit is planned to feed heat extracted from the Rhine into Cologne‘s district heating network providing heat for 30,000 households.
We do not understand how to deal with heat waves in the UK.
Many houses with their windows open and no curtains drawn in scorching heat.
When it is hotter outside than inside opening the windows only makes it hotter inside the house.
Once it is cooler outside open all windows.
Heat pumps, waste heat and district heating are a winning team.
60 MW of new heat pumps will extract heat from wastewater in Hamburg and feed it into the district heating network heating 39,000 homes.
Disappointing piece on electric vehicles
@guardian
.
Yes EVs are not zero carbon. But they are a lot better than ICE cars.
Yes cobalt is used in EVs. But increasingly cobalt-free batteries will be used & cobalt also used in refining petrol & diesel.
When people think of heat pumps they typically think of little grey boxes with a fan.
But there are also gigantic industrial scale heat pumps like this one in Denmark replacing coal heating with heat from the seawater providing heat for 25,000 homes.
NEW RESEARCH: More and more EU countries phase out fossil fuel heating.
This is the first peer-reviewed systematic analysis of phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU.
Our new paper
@oekoinstitut
@RegAssistProj
here:
🧵
💥Boom! Heat pump sales in Belgium soared by 140% in the first half of 2023 compared to 2022.
1 in 4 new heating systems installed in Belgium is now a heat pump.
Last year the world built more new solar capacity than every other power source combined.
If growth continues at the current rate solar capacity will be larger than the combined total of coal, gas, nuclear and hydro by 2031.
It will be much more expensive to operate gas-fired power plants in the long term than to build new solar PV capacity in Europe says new study by
@RystadEnergy
.
🧵
In 2002 I was told by two old German engineers that renewables could never provide more than 10% of electricity in Germany. In the first quarter this year it was 51.9%.
Heat pumps are a vital technology for net zero but multiple myths and half truths are spread via news and social media.
I take on 20 of those myths and debunk them one by one in the
@NewStatesman
Cognitive dissonance in Germany - the majority of the population believe the energy transition does not go fast enough.
Yet most people oppose the very means to make that happen in buildings and transport.
Deutschland ist Schlusslicht in Europa bei der Installation von Smart Metern gemeinsam mit Belgien Bulgarien, Zypern, der Tschechischen Republik, Kroatien und der Slowakei.
We keep underestimating learning curves for clean energy.
Costs for wind and solar have plummeted from 2010 to 2022.
📉Solar PV: -89%
📉Onshore wind: -69%
📉Offshore wind: -59%
New data from
@IRENA