In June, Khamenei opined on a 2020 law that ordered a major nuclear escalation, calling it "a good law" that "must be followed."
In practice, however, Tehran's compliance has been spotty.
For
@WashInstitute
I explain what happened & why it still matters
“Why would American Media, best-known for publishing salacious stories of sex and scandal, sink money into printing 200,000 copies of a magazine with a grinning Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman splashed across the cover?”
Hundreds of Black Lives Matter protesters make their way from Malcolm X/Meridian Hill Park down 16th street toward the White House
#DCProtests
@PoPville
Israeli Military Intelligence released its top-line intelligence assessments for 2019 to Israeli press. Despite political rhetoric, intel pros say:
▪️Iran has complied with JCPOA
▪️If Iran broke out to a bomb, it would take 2 yrs: 1 yr for fissile material and 1 yr to weaponize
Excited and honored to be joining
@WashInstitute
as a Senior Fellow focusing on Iran--sanctions, economic, diplomatic, and nuclear issues.
Grateful for the past 5+ years at
@EurasiaGroup
& privilege of working with brilliant colleagues to help make sense of the world.
IRGC statement holds a mirror to Trump:
IRGC tonight: “If America responds to these attacks there will be bigger attacks on the way. This is not a threat, it’s a warning.”
Trump 31Dec: "Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost... This is not a Warning, it is a Threat"
Reuters cites two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats confirming Tehran will supply not only more drones but short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, confirming Western press reports.
“So angry was Mr. Mattis at the Syrian withdrawal that neither he, nor any other senior Pentagon official, would defend it publicly, despite requests from the White House to do so.”
Told
@WSJ
@laurnorman
: “Both Washington and Tehran want to get this done. Russia throwing sand in the gears may actually bring these two adversaries together to reach creative solutions to get the deal signed.”
🧵Treasury issued two important tranches of sanctions designations today aimed at Iran's petchem exports & procurement of UAV tech.
Many of the targets were in China, demonstrating a greater (and much belated) US willingness to put pressure on Beijing on these files.
In an op-ed in
@thehill
, I outline a new way to hold Iran accountable for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine: Along with G7, Washington should argue that a “business-as-usual” attitude toward Iranian energy purchases cannot continue. (1/7)
Netanyahu tonight: “To the citizens of Israel I say that I do not care if your blood is boiling. You cannot take the law into your own hands. You cannot grab an ordinary Arab citizen and try to lynch him – just as we cannot watch Arab citizens do this to Jewish citizens.”
Latest Iranian inflation numbers are out, and they are brutal.
Consumer prices rose 12.2% compared with last mo, with food prices rising more than 25% mom. Prices for sugar, cheese and eggs rose 47%.
Point-to-point has risen to 52.5% (up from 39.3% last mo).
امیرعبداللهیان:
🔹سندی معروف به «سند سپتامبر» بین ما و طرفهای مقابل برجام آماده است
🔹سلطان عمان ابتکاری روی میز گذاشت و در چارچوب آن گفتوگوهایی را به طور غیرمستقیم با آمریکاییها داشتیم
🔹 بایدن پیامهایی میدهد مبنی بر این که من نیت و اراده جدی دارم برای اینکه به برجام
Iranian rial has reached a new all-time low, according to Bonbast: USDIRR 332,500.
When Raisi was inaugurated last August, the rate was USDIRR 255,500.
Per Gallant, estimates of Iranian annual spending to proxies and partners:
▪️Hizballah: $700m
▪️Hamas: $100m
▪️PIJ: Tens of millions
▪️Militias in Syria: Hundreds of millions
▪️Assad regime: Billions
▪️Militias in Iraq: Hundreds of millions
▪️Houthis: Hundreds of millions
To sum up: A regime that once suffered devastating bombardments of its cities is supplying drones used to terrorize a Euro capital & deployed forces to aid such attacks on the occupied territory of a Euro country on behalf of a country that once occupied part of its own territory
Shamkhani today: "US isn't interested in a strong deal that would satisfy both parties"
Putin today: US is "ready to make peace with Iran, immediately sign all the documents"
امروز در جلسه غیرعلنی مجلس شورای اسلامی حضور یافتم.نمایندگان در حضور سردار سلامی از تلاش این نهاد حاکمیتی برای حفظ امنیت ملی قدردانی کردند. مجلس در اقدامی متقابل در صدد قرار دادن عناصر ارتش کشورهای اروپا در لیست تروریستی است. پارلمان اروپایی به پای خود شلیک کرد.پاسخ ، متقابل است.
Raisi's new chief of Atomic Energy Org is under UN, EU & UK sanctions.
He was listed by UN in 2008 as "engaged in, directly associated with or providing support for Iran’s proliferation sensitive nuclear activities or for the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems."
How much $$$ does Iran spend on its military? Where does it go? And how does US policy affect these trends?
For much of the past yr, I've been digging into Iranian budgets to get at the answer. Today
@WashInstitute
published my study on past decade of Iranian defense spending 👇
Scholars have devoted little attention to a key area: Iran’s defense spending.
@hrome2
offers the most detailed public accounting yet of Tehran’s recent defense spending, illustrated by charts showing trends and comparisons with regional rivals.
امیرعبداللهیان پریروز: «آقای فواد حسین که از سفر واشینگتن برگشت حامل این پیام بود که طرف آمریکایی برای جمعبندی توافق آمادگی دارد.»
سخنگوی وزارت خارجه آمریکا دیروز: «فقط مقامات ایرانی میتوانند توضیح دهند که چرا به این دروغها ادامه میدهند.»
Iranian officials are seemingly resorting to the very Russian explanation that two 16-year-olds (Sarina Esmailzadeh, Nika Shahkarami) who were separately found dead after participating in protests actually fell off of roofs
Iran parliamentary elections update: Guardian Council has rejected about 7,500 candidates, more than half of those who were approved by Interior Ministry.
Overall, at present, rejection rate is 57%, second highest in history of Islamic Republic.
Nides at
@INSSIsrael
this week:
“Biden has said three things over and over and over again:
1. We are not going to stand by and let Iran get a nuclear weapon.
2. Obviously we do not tie Israel’s hands to defend itself.
3. We have Israel’s back.”
Norwegian insurer releases report blaming Iran for attack on the tankers, but it cites possible anti-ship missiles instead of mines. Also confirms CENTCOM report that Norwegian crew was forced to board Iranian vessel after already being rescued.
#OOTT
Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.
We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.
Update: Senior State Dept Official confirms to me that Iran’s actions “are not part of a deal between the US and Iran. We understand they are related to Baquer Namazi’s medical requirements.”
"Bloody Friday": "Iranian security forces unlawfully killed at least 66 people, including children, and injured 100s of others after firing live ammunition, metal pellets and teargas...30 September in Zahedan"
Bear in mind that this is (1) an unconfirmed press report of (2) Iranian effort to spin a deal for a conservative/hardline audience. So read with caution.
Brings me back to the battle of the dueling fact sheets in spring 2015.
#BREAKING
A leaked report on the remarks made by Iran's chief negotiator
@Bagheri_Kani
in a closed-door briefing, obtained by
@IranIntl_En
, provides more details about some of the concessions Bagheri claims his negotiating team has received from the US in
#ViennaTalks
.
For those following at home, OFAC's SDN listing for Ali Akbar Salehi has BOTH his *country of birth* AND his *date of birth* wrong.
Salehi is not 50, and Karbala is not in Iran.
The statement that precedes the crackdown
IRGC just released lengthy diatribe against protesters, calling the demonstrations "sedition" (فتنه) and "hybrid war" driven by US/Israel and their "domestic infantry" which will be dealt an "instructive defeat."
With 4 weeks left in critical presidential transition, Iranian leadership is facing:
▪️ Widespread power cuts
▪️ Fifth covid wave & new closures
▪️ Oil contract worker strikes
▪️ Point-to-point inflation rate of 48%
“Iran has signaled through European diplomats that it wants U.S. sanctions loosened on its oil exports as a condition to talk about defusing tensions.”
Hook now: “The Iranian regime at virtually every level has said they will not talk with the United States”
Zarif in Apr: "I put this offer on the table publicly now: Exchange them...Let’s discuss them. Let’s have an exchange. I’m ready to do it, and I have authority to do it."
If the
@UN
Arms Embargo on Iran expires in October, Iran will be able to buy new fighter aircraft like Russia’s SU-30 and China’s J-10. With these highly lethal aircraft, Europe and Asia could be in Iran’s crosshairs. The U.S. will never let this happen.
Watching the violent response of Iranian security forces to peaceful protesters reminds me of this Reuters piece describing Khamenei's mindset amid the 2019 protests, in which some 1,500 Iranians were killed.
🧵Raisi gave a few comments before leaving for China that are worth keeping in mind while watching the trip.
He stood in front of a map of Iran, with Persian Gulf labeled prominently-perhaps a jab at the China-GCC statement in December.
But what Raisi said was more interesting.
Iranian official: “Russians had put this demand on the table since two days ago. There is an understanding that by changing its position in Vienna talks Russia wants to secure its interests in other places. This move is not constructive.”
🧵In my latest piece for
@WashInstitute
, I take a look at how the US could increase pressure on Iranian energy exports, in light of Tehran's support for Russia in Ukraine, domestic suppression, and nuclear advances.
In short: US is not "sanctioned out."
Next week marks 5-year anniversary of Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA, a decision that left the Iranian nuclear program unconstrained, stoked regional tensions, divided US from its allies & hobbled the prospects for future diplomacy.
5 brief reflections on this period:
Mike Pompeo declares defeat at the UN security council and blames it for the failure of the US resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran
"The Security Council’s failure to act decisively in defense of international peace and security is inexcusable."
“U.S. forces are helping Ukraine’s military to target the sites where the drones are being prepared for launch — a difficult task because the Russians are moving the launch sites around, from soccer fields to parking lots.”
Blinken: “Iran’s response to the proposal put forward by the EU is clearly a step backward and makes prospects for an agreement in the near term, I would say, unlikely.
“Iran seems either unwilling or unable to do what is necessary to reach an agreement.”
#irantalks
#oott
🧵Iranian crude & condensate exports have reached their highest levels in about four years, according to some estimates, despite US sanctions that proscribe importing even a single Iranian barrel.
Looking beyond the top-line numbers, four key points of context 👇
#OOTT
LIST/European firms that have publicly stated they are withdrawing, or preparing to withdraw, from Iran:
▪️Allianz (insurance) 🇩🇪
▪️Total (energy) 🇫🇷
▪️Wintershall (energy) 🇩🇪
▪️Maersk (tankers) 🇩🇰
▪️Torm (tankers) 🇩🇰
▪️Siemens (industrial) 🇩🇪
One unusual point from the new Iranian budget proposal: Gov't is explicitly setting aside some oil income for defense bodies, including IRGC.
In essence, Raisi is telling purchasers of Iranian oil that, yes, you are directly funding an organization involved in terrorism. (1/5)
Notable part of latest IAEA report is how explicit agency is in ruling out the ability to re-establish continuity of knowledge in the unlikely event JCPOA is revived.
"Agency would not be able to re-establish continuity of knowledge in relation to the production and inventory...
The next question to ask is: why is it a crime to raise doubts about the Holocaust? Why should anyone who writes about such doubts be imprisoned while insulting the Prophet (pbuh) is allowed?
Two models for Trump twitter threats vs Iran:
▪️Dec 31 "They will pay a very BIG PRICE" - 48 hours later, Suleimani was dead
▪️Jan 4 "VERY FAST AND VERY HARD" - 4 days later, Iran retaliated against US bases & Trump did not respond
Will today's threat be a Dec 31 or Jan 4?
Upon information and belief, Iran or its proxies are planning a sneak attack on U.S. troops and/or assets in Iraq. If this happens, Iran will pay a very heavy price, indeed!
ICYMI (I did) -- Borrell comments re
#IranTalks
on Monday:
"JCPOA is in a very difficult situation. But I think that we do not have a better option than the JCPOA to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. This remains in our own interest..."
My latest in
@ForeignPolicy
looks at the Iranian economy and prospect for talks.
Main takeaway: If the U.S. president in January 2021 decides to consider a credible diplomatic path with Tehran, he will find significant economic leverage at his disposal.
THREAD/I wrote my dissertation on George HW Bush's policy toward Iran, which I found to be doggedly pragmatic and non-ideological, offering a largely overlooked opportunity for a reduction in tensions between Washington and Tehran. /1
Three Iranian officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity said they believed the fire was the result of a cyber attack, but did not cite any evidence.
Lots of photos online of Mahmoud Khazein, the alleged Iranian intelligence asset involved in kidnapping plot of Masih Alinejad. Here's a party he apparently threw for the filmmaker Mehran Modiri (photo used in FBI wanted poster).
Manhattan U.S. Attorney announces kidnapping conspiracy charges against an Iranian intelligence officer and members of an Iranian intelligence network
@FBI
@NewYorkFBI
With US policy toward Iran under a microscope, I'm excited to share my latest article that charts US & Israeli strategy toward Iran in early 1990s. A brief thread... 1/7
#AcademicTwitter
BBC Persian is reporting that protesters have taken to the streets in Shahriar, Karaj, Bandar Abbas, and Mashhad, in addition to Tehran, and that shopkeepers have shuttered their shops.
Iranian security apparatus is rolling out statements threatening a violent crackdown on
#IranProtests2022
, which it has dubbed a Western conspiracy to overthrow the gov’t. The concurrent statements are likely an effort to demonstrate a unified front.
🧵 Tracking the threats👇
Unwelcome development for Tehran following Zarif’s Asia roadshow: “Indian Oil Corp., the largest buyer of Iranian crude in India, will look to buy more barrels from Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait, the UAE and Mexico to replace Iranian imports”
#oott
Putin: US is "ready to make peace with Iran, immediately sign all the documents, and with Venezuela. They went to Venezuela to negotiate, but they should not have introduced these illegitimate sanctions...The same will happen in relations with our country, I have no doubt."
.
@SecBlinken
is visiting Israel for talks, including re Iran. It’s a good time to reflect on Israel’s record of shaping US policy toward Tehran.
I wrote about this in the Routledge Handbook of Diplomacy & Statecraft, published last year, looking at 2009-2019.
A few takeaways:
Raisi has proposed more than tripling the budget (adjusted for inflation) of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), the body founded by Fakhrizadeh that is a successor to the Amad Plan.
#بودجه_۱۴۰۲
Busy day re Iran, as captured in Reuters headlines in past <6 hrs:
▪️IAEA chief hopes for crunch meeting in Iran...
▪️British spy chief: Iran tried 10 times to kidnap or kill UK-linked individuals
▪️France denies Iran's 'false statements' on citizens' arrests
Amid the coronavirus crisis, Iran approved a significant ramp up in defense and security spending--signaling that the government intends to maintain its repressive capacity at home and its military capabilities abroad.
My budget update for
@IranPrimer
:
سرداربزرگ و پرافتخاراسلام آسمانی شد.دیشب ارواح طیبه شهیدان،روح مطهر قاسم سلیمانی را درآغوش گرفتند.سالها مجاهدت مخلصانه وشجاعانه در میدانهای مبارزه بااشرار عالم وسالها آرزوی شهادت،سرانجام #سلیمانی_عزیز را به این مقام والا رسانید و خون پاک او به دست شقی ترین آحاد بشر بر زمین ریخت/۱
“Make no mistake, we’d like a diplomatic resolution. But as long as the Iranians are doing what they are doing—not only to their people in Iran but then producing drone technology & shipping it to Ru to go against Ukr—we can’t have negotiations during those periods of time.”
Rouhani essentially confirms US claim that Tehran hasn’t made the political decisions necessary to get a deal, saying that if only Araqchi were given the mandate he could get a deal signed today.
Every time Amir Abdollahian gives interviews in Western media, one has to wonder what he aims to accomplish. Worth watching in full:
--Security forces "have not killed anyone w/bullets or any other means in these riots."
--Doubles down on Pahlavi/"son of Hitler" comparison
As Raisi prepares to mark 1 yr in office, latest Iranian inflation data show that consumers are spending 54% more than 1 year ago for the same set of goods & services, and 86% more on food.
After Iranian denials, Grossi today acknowledged that things are not quite as settled as he said they were on Sat—a reversal that hurts his credibility and provides much less of a fig leaf to avoid censure, although US’s opposition to a resolution will still likely carry the day.
Grossi at presser says announced increase in monitoring at Fordow was not/not in excess of what had already been under discussion w/DDG, nothing that “they needed some consolidation and confirmation.”
Is it materially different that Iran is ignoring all nuclear limits but not "withdrawing" from JCPOA? Absolutely. Iran accepted new levels of international inspections under JCPOA, which it appears willing to continue to tolerate.
#OOTT
Today marks 1 yr anniv. of US "maximum pressure" campaign vs Iran. In
@ForeignAffairs
, I take a look forward at what yr 2 has in store for Iran:
1⃣ Int'l isolation will not improve
2⃣ Economy will stabilize
3⃣ Provocations will continue
4⃣ No talks w/ US
“In exchange for help in Ukraine, Iran has pushed for access to Russian weaponry in return. Iranian officials and advisers say the purchase of Russia’s newest generation Su-35 fighters tops their shopping list of military equipment.”
As the Iran policy debate heats up, I'm going to keep a running thread of myths that flourish on this website and in analysis pieces from across the political spectrum.
With JCPOA arguably in its most perilous position, keeping the facts straight is more important than ever.
US officials continue to use the line that Iran is acting in a fit of “panicked aggression.” I’d argue the opposite. Iran has escalated methodically and taken calculated risks when it faces no pushback. Dynamic is apparent in nuclear and regional realms.