Bitcoin hasn't been going up because of the "halving".
It's been a story of equity markets and liquidity.
Credit spreads are tightening and equity markets are at all-time highs.
The halving is irrelevant compared to these macro flows.
All-time highs in Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest on Binance, the largest crypto derivatives exchange in the world.
Notable rises in open interest tend to proceed elevated volatility (in both directions).
Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss sits in the "belief" zone.
If historical trends are anything to go by, we still have some room to run before hitting the "euphoria" zone.
Data:
@cryptoquant_com
Every week, we create a Power Rankings table that lists the market-cap rank of the top 20 cryptocurrencies (excluding stable coins and wrapped tokens).
This allows us to observe the changes in the market-cap ladder on a weekly basis.
Here are this week's Crypto Power Rankings.
While Solana is still in a 30% drawdown from all-time highs, the market-cap of Solana hit a new all-time high.
It's up from $3B at the bear market low to $80B.
$SOL
Commercials have nailed Bitcoin since the CME overtook Binance as the largest derivatives marketplace.
They were net long this entire rally and flipped net short prior to the recent sell-off. Albeit still net short, commercials have moved closer to a net long position last week.
Look at how different cryptocurrencies are trading with respect to their April, 2022 highs.
Bitcoin is above.
Ethereum is near.
Most altcoins are still nowhere near.
Is there a catch-up trade to be made here?
The first thing a market needs to do before it goes higher is to stop going down.
After trending lower, the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio has been going sideways. Could this be indicating a consolidation phase before a potential upside expansion?
Both assets are making all-time highs.
But while Gold has been moving higher, investors are erring that it's a time to sell out of it.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is hitting an all-time high and investors have been flocking into the ETFs.
While February is a seasonally lackluster month in an election year for equity markets, you can't say the same for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin tends to see positive monthly returns in February, averaging +8.29% in the last decade, with only two negative months in the same period.
So much emphasis placed on external edge: more data, technology, and complexity.
So little emphasis placed on internal edge: cultivating healthy habits, cutting out noise, and being mindful.
From
@jaredtendler
's latest newsletter:
"Clutter in your mind slowly accumulates in these periods of high performance and productivity, and, left alone, this accumulated data can cause you to slide backwards"
This is the real flippening you need to pay attention to in crypto.
CME has overtaken Binance, the largest crypto derivatives exchange, in Bitcoin futures open interest.
As talks of a spot Ethereum ETF begin, CME could begin closing the gap in the Ethereum futures market.
Outflows from Grayscale $GBTC are slowing down, but inflows into the other products remain strong.
Yesterday saw a gain of just under $500M across all products.
All the new Bitcoin spot ETFs have crossed 200,000 BTC in AUM in their first month.
To put that into context, these ETFs now hold over 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That’s more than MicroStrategy’s 190,000 BTC.
The dollar rallied following the retest of this downtrend and the 50-day average.
A strong dollar has been a headwind for risk assets and crypto markets.
$DXY
Crypto markets have cooled off post-ETF.
Spot volumes are down.
Funding rates are down.
On-chain activity is down.
Overbought readings are down.
These consolidations provide the market with an opportunity to recalibrate before embarking on their next move.
"Eating clean, walking, more rigorous exercise, avoiding alcohol, and getting good sleep. The more of these we practice consistently over time the better we bounce back."
Comprising two thirds of the Bitcoin ETF assets just a few months ago, Grayscale is now down to just 46% of the total assets across all the various products.
Continued outflows, driven by markedly higher fees, have cost Grayscale's $GBTC $11.3B worth of outflows.
Gen Zers are as likely to own cryptocurrency as they are stocks.
As much as I think having some crypto exposure is probably a good idea, this seems a little reckless.
Source:
Bitcoin futures markets have unwound in January.
Asset managers in the COT front-ran the ETF announcement using futures as a spot proxy and are now closing off excess futures exposure, down 1,838 contracts since the ETF peak.
Crazy stats from Coingecko's recent report
- 24,000 cryptocurrencies have been listed on CoinGecko since 2014
- That’s an average of 7 new tokens, every single day
- Of those, ~58% have died
- More than half of the dead tokens launched during the 2021 bull run
Source:
@Coinigy
Approximately 13% of all Bitcoin's supply is held at a loss, meaning the overwhelming majority of coins were acquired below current market prices.
Source:
@glassnode
Here's how all the Bitcoin ETFs compare.
Grayscale's $GBTC holds 75% of the total AUM, with Blackrock's $IBIT and Fidelity's $FBTC holding the most of the remaining AUM.
With $GBTC's fee running 125bps higher from its nearest competitor, it's share is likely to erode over time.
BitMEX's bitcoin perpetual swap now offers 250x leverage
"While the increase in leverage potentially allows traders to profit more, it also heightens the risk of substantial losses, with as little as a 0.4% move enough to cause liquidations."
Both assets are making all-time highs.
But while Gold has been moving higher, investors are erring that it's a time to sell out of it.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is hitting an all-time high and investors have been flocking into the ETFs.